Historical Results

Particulars INR (in Cr) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Assumptions & Drivers

Income Statement
Revenue from Operations 4,578.30 5,219.52 4,699.46 4,519.29 6,919.18
y-o-y growth % 14.01% -9.96% -3.83% 53.10%

Other Income 62.04 45.75 24.49 16.02 22.34

% of Revenue 1.36% 0.88% 0.52% 0.35% 0.32%

Cost of Good Sold 2,260.58 2,440.40 2,177.25 2,002.04 3,368.94

% of Revenue 49.38% 46.76% 46.33% 44.30% 48.69%

Employee Benefits expense 506 592 583 578 665

% of Revenue 11.05% 11.35% 12.41% 12.78% 9.61%

Admin & Selling Exp 0 0 0 0 0

% of Revenue 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Finance Cost 118.21 118.35 110.80 72.00 85.72

% of Debt 8.38% 12.41% 16.08% 28.23% 27.68%

Depriciation & Amortisation Exp 404.03 363.91 333.30 336.46 139.00

% of Fixed Assets 10.36% 9.79% 9.23% 9.00% 3.80%

Other Expenses 926.56 1,216.03 1,134.12 1,104.11 1,462.86

% of Revenue 20.24% 23.30% 24.13% 24.43% 21.14%

Tax Rate % of EBT 29.62% 32.94% 20.61% 23.87% 26.96%

EBIT 543.42 652.63 496.15 488.55 1,112.27

0.12 0.13 0.11 0.11 0.16
Balance sheet
Assets
Property , Plant & Equipment 3851.70 3672.51 3573.36 3697.89 3620.16
% of revenue 84.13% 70.36% 76.04% 81.82% 52.32%

Capital work in progress 176.08 131.76 140.84 57.13 82.41

% change over next year -25.17% 6.89% -59.44% 44.25%

Intangible assets (inc g/w) 50 44 38 39 35

% of revenue 1.09% 0.83% 0.81% 0.86% 0.51%
Non current Investments 15 35 22 4 4
% Of revenue 0.34% 0.68% 0.46% 0.09% 0.05%

Deffered Tax Assets 4 4 7 14 14

Growth % -12.27% 84.46% 93.26% 2.47%

Current investments 11 67 19 14 21
Growth % 0.24% 1.28% 0.40% 0.31% 0.31%

Trade receivable 477.76 662.00 278.48 454.51 528.53

% of revenue 10.44% 12.68% 5.93% 10.06% 7.64%

Inventories 906.53 1000.96 911.98 1008.28 1290.39

% of COGS 40.10% 41.02% 41.89% 50.36% 38.30%

Other current assets 101 110 109 139 287

Growth % 9.27% -1.39% 27.93% 106.40%

Liabilities
Short term borrowings 1,108 1,142 901 1,280 1,261
Growth % 3.02% -21.11% 42.13% -1.52%

Trade payables 168.32 176.65 200.31 295.71 454.59

% of COGS 7.45% 7.24% 9.20% 14.77% 13.49%

Other current liabilities 31 39 45 62 78

Growth % 24.31% 16.08% 37.18% 26.78%
 Forecast Period
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

7,672 8,506 9,431 10,457 11,594

10.88% 10.88% 10.88% 10.88% 10.88% 10.88% CAGR

53 47 46 50 59
0.69% 0.55% 0.49% 0.48% 0.51%

3,613 3,967 4,396 4,880 5,465

47.09% 46.63% 46.61% 46.66% 47.14%

878 980 1,089 1,190 1,287

11.44% 11.52% 11.55% 11.38% 11.10%

0 0 0 0 0
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

78 67 78 86 78
18.56% 20.59% 22.23% 23.46% 22.50%

333 321 316 300 268

8.44% 8.05% 7.71% 7.40% 7.08%

1,738 1,967 2,178 2,394 2,618

22.65% 23.13% 23.10% 22.89% 22.58%

26.80% 26.23% 24.89% 25.75% 26.13%

957.50861 1116.1837 1310.2584 1376.6922 1552.868

0.12 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.13

3916.74 3948.85 4062.26 4021.47 3754.91

51.05% 46.42% 43.07% 38.46% 32.39%

75.52 69.20 65.73 60.88 62.72

-8.37% -8.37% -5.01% -7.38% 3.03%

35.7 36.0 36.2 36.5 36.8

0.82% 0.77% 0.75% 0.74% 0.72%
 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8
0.32% 0.32% 0.25% 0.21% 0.23%

22.57 34.29 47.37 71.08 104.28

60.06% 51.93% 38.15% 50.05% 46.71%

21.518853 21.639895 21.730465 21.822023 21.918922

0.51% 0.56% 0.42% 0.42% 0.44%

717.15 776.65 794.11 932.64 1007.68

9.35% 9.13% 8.42% 8.92% 8.69%

1529.37 1696.95 1896.03 2116.92 2294.65

42.33% 42.78% 43.13% 43.38% 41.99%

388.54 526.68 741.62 1106.86 1699.19

35.55% 35.55% 40.81% 49.25% 53.51%

1331.96 1406.96 1493.52 1666.84 1758.51

5.63% 5.63% 6.15% 11.60% 5.50%

376.79 437.38 518.00 600.24 645.27

10.43% 11.03% 11.78% 12.30% 11.81%

98.79 124.56 157.50 202.41 256.62

26.09% 26.09% 26.44% 28.52% 26.78%
 Historical Results
Financial Statements (INR in Cr.) 2018 2019 2020 2021

Profit and Loss Statement

Revenue from operations 4578.3 5219.52 4699.46 4519.29
Other income 62.04 45.75 24.49 16.02
Total Revenue 4,640.34 5,265.27 4,723.95 4,535.31

Cost of Good Sold 2,260.58 2,440.40 2,177.25 2,002.04

Excise Duty - - -
Gross Profit 2,379.76 2,824.87 2,546.70 2,533.27

Employee Benefit Expenses 505.75 592.30 583.13 577.54

Admin & Selling Expenses - - - -
Exceptional items - - 26.61
Other Expenses 926.56 1,216.03 1,134.12 1,104.11
EBITDA 947.45 1,016.54 829.45 825.01

Depriciation & Amortisation Expenses 404.03 363.91 333.30 336.46

EBIT 543.42 652.63 496.15 488.55
Finance Cost 118.21 118.35 110.80 72.00
EBT 425.21 534.28 385.35 416.55

Tax Rate 29.6% 32.9% 20.6% 23.9%

TAX 125.93 176.00 79.41 99.41
Net Profit 299.28 358.28 305.94 317.14

Market Price 6.83 6.70 4.55 13.85

Earning Per Share 2.32 2.78 2.37 2.46
Dividend Per Share 1.50 2.70 2.58 -

Balance Sheet
Assets
Non-Current Assets :
Property , Plant & Equipment 3,851.70 3,672.51 3,573.36 3,697.89
Capital Work in Progress 176.08 131.76 140.84 57.13
Intangible Assets 49.83 43.54 38.12 38.69
Investment Properties 57.52 57.52 57.52 -
Rights of use assets - - 69.32 53.28
Investments 15.46 35.48 21.57 3.90
loans & Advances 39.47 40.17 45.36 50.72
Deferred Tax Assets 4.40 3.86 7.12 13.76
Other Non-current assets 106.61 95.17 21.80 25.63
Total Non-current Assets 4,301.07 4,080.01 3,975.01 3,941.00

Current Assets :
Cash & Cash Equivalent (inc Bank Deposits) 47.38 9.48 318.32 98.41
Inventories 906.53 1,000.96 911.98 1,008.28
Investments 10.90 66.93 19.01 13.91
Trade Receivable 477.76 662.00 278.48 454.51
Loan 118.49 158.15 - -
Other Financial Assets 166.67 15.63 107.00 99.18
Current Tax Assets - - - -
Other Current Assets 100.74 110.08 108.55 138.87
Assets held for sale - - - -
Total Current Assets 1,828.47 2,023.23 1,743.34 1,813.16

Total Assets 6,129.54 6,103.24 5,718.35 5,754.16

Liabilities & Shareholders Equity

Shareholder's fund
Equity Share Capital 509.60 509.60 509.60 509.60
Reserve & Surplus 2,183.89 2,421.69 2,457.30 2,806.95
Other reseves
Non controlling interest - - - -
Total Shareholder's fund 2,693.49 2,931.29 2,966.90 3,316.55

Liabilities
Non-current Liability
Borrowings 1,410.78 953.62 689.06 255.09
Other Financial Liabilities 0.47 - 32.39 -
Employee Benefit Obligations - - - 25.14
Defered Tax liability 340.69 408.27 336.73 320.75
Total Non-current Liability 1,751.94 1,361.89 1,058.18 600.98

Current Liability
Borrowings 1,108.44 1,141.96 900.88 1,280.42
Trade Payable 168.32 176.65 200.31 295.71
Other Financial liability 362.19 427.46 519.17 175.26
Other Current Liabilities 31.22 38.81 45.05 61.80
Employee Benefit Obligations - - 6.55 1.22
Current tax liabilities 0.09 5.93 - -
Provision 13.85 19.25 21.31 22.22
Total Current Liability 1,684.11 1,810.06 1,693.27 1,836.63

Total Equities & Liabilities 6,129.54 6,103.24 5,718.35 5,754.16

Working Capital Requirement (81.57) 125.08 (353.45) (195.43)
Change in working capital 206.65 (478.53) 158.02
 Forecast Period Stable Growth Phase
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

6919.18 7,671.71 8,506.09 9,431.21 10,456.95 11,594.25

22.34 52.63 46.97 45.96 50.25 58.64
6,941.52 7,724.34 8,553.06 9,477.17 10,507.20 11,652.89

3,368.94 3,612.62 3,966.64 4,395.75 4,879.66 5,465.20

- - - - - -
3,572.58 4,111.72 4,586.41 5,081.42 5,627.54 6,187.69

664.84 877.51 979.60 1,089.33 1,189.86 1,286.78

- - - - - -
- - - - - -
1,462.86 1,737.52 1,967.50 2,178.33 2,393.57 2,618.16
1,444.88 1,496.69 1,639.31 1,813.77 2,044.11 2,282.75

332.61 333.46 320.90 315.80 300.31 268.44

1,112.27 1,163.23 1,318.41 1,497.97 1,743.81 2,014.31
85.72 77.55 67.45 78.18 85.79 78.38
1,026.55 1,085.68 1,250.97 1,419.80 1,658.02 1,935.93

27.0% 26.8% 26.2% 24.9% 25.7% 26.1%

276.73 290.94 328.17 353.42 426.93 505.78
749.82 794.75 922.79 1,066.38 1,231.09 1,430.15

53.70
5.81
0.72

3,620.16 3,917 3,949 4,062 4,021 3,755

82.41 76 69 66 61 63
35.39 36 36 36 36 37
- 0 0 0 0 0
56.46 56 42 32 24 18
3.71 4 4 4 4 4
45.12 0 0 0 0 0
14.10 23 34 47 71 104
 83.85 44 51 60 51 54
3,941.20 4,154 4,185 4,307 4,269 4,034

251.98 - - - - -
1,290.39 1,529 1,697 1,896 2,117 2,295
21.41 22 22 22 22 22
528.53 717 777 794 933 1,008
- 0 0 0 0 0
110.60 106 105 107 106 106
- 0 0 0 0 0
286.63 389 527 742 1,107 1,699
- 0 0 0 0 0
2,489.54 2,762 3,127 3,561 4,284 5,129

6,430.74 6,917 7,312 7,867 8,553 9,164

509.60 509.60 509.60 509.60 509.60 509.60

3,287.62 3,409.31 3,668.58 3,927.85 4,187.12 4,446.39
0 0 0 0 0
- - - - - -
3,797.22 3,919 4,178 4,437 4,697 4,956

309.66 418 328 352 366 348

4.03 12 5 7 8 7
23.80 16 22 21 20 21
303.87 320 315 313 316 315
641.36 767 670 693 710 691

1,260.96 1,332 1,407 1,494 1,667 1,759

454.59 377 437 518 600 645
150.68 151 151 151 151 151
78.35 99 125 157 202 257
1.96 3 2 2 3 2
25.96 9 12 15 12 13
19.66 20 20 20 20 20
1,992.16 1,990 2,153 2,357 2,654 2,846

6,430.74 6,676 7,001 7,487 8,061 8,493

218.65 710.56 920.07 1,155.86 1,575.42 2,231.40
414.08 491.91 209.51 235.79 419.56 655.99
Stable Growth Phase 8.00%
2028

12,521.79
63.34
12,585.12

5,902.42
-
6,682.71

1,389.72
-
-
2,827.61
2,465.37

289.91
2,175.46
84.65
2,090.81

26.1%
546.24
1,544.56

3,941
67
36
-
34
4
-
56
 52
4,190

-
1,907
22
846
-
106
-
893
-
3,773

7,963

510
3,928
-
-
4,437

362
8
20
316
706

1,532
516
151
168
3
12
20
2,400

7,543
1,318.66
(912.74)
DCF & Sensitivity Analysis
All amounts Denominated in Crores

Assumptions

Tax Rate 26.1%

Discount Rate 10.66%
Perpetural Growth Rate 8.0%
Current Price 36
Shares Outstanding (in CR) 129
WACC 10.66%

Date of cash flows 2022 2023 2024

EBIT 958 1,116

Tax expense 26.10% 26.10%
NOPAT 708 825
Add: Depreciation and amortisation 333 321
Add/Less: (Increase)/ Decrease in net working capital (492) (210)
Less: Capital expenditure - -
Debt free cash flow 549 936
Discount rate (%) 90.4% 81.7%
projection year 1 2
Present value factor- year end discounting 496 765
Present value debt free cash flow 496 765
Terminal value
Present value for explicit period 3,091
Present value of terminal period 8,060
DCF Value of Firm 11,151
Add: Investments 4
Total Value of Firm (EV) 11,154
Less: Gross Debt & Debt Equivalents 1,721
Add: Cash+Non operating assets 363
Less: Non Controling Interest -
DCF value of Common Equity 9,796
No. of shares o/s 129.00
DCF value per share 75.936

Terminal Value Perpetuity G Method

LT Growth Rate/Exit Multiple 7.0%
Terminal Value - EBITDA
Terminal Value
Present Value of TV
 2025 2026 2027 2028

1,310 1,377 1,553

26.10% 26.10% 26.10%
968 1,017 1,148
316 300 268
(236) (420) (656)
- - -
1,048 898 760
73.8% 66.7% 60.3%
3 4 5
774 599 458 489.9955
774 599 458
13,376

8,060

Market Value
Market Cap 4,631.10
Add:- Debt 1,721.30
Less: - Cash 362.58
Enterprise Value 5,989.82
Cost of equity

Particulars High Growth Stable Growth

Risk-free rate (%)
7.47% 7.36%
Beta 0.9844577283866 0.500

Market Rate
15.6200% 15.6200%

Cost of equity capital (%) 15.49% 11.49%

Weighted average cost of capital

Particulars Weight Particulars Cost For High

Growth Phase
Debt (%) 41.0% Cost of debt (%) 5.0%

Equity (%) 59.0% Cost of equity (%) 15.5%

WACC 10.66% 10.66%

D/E 0.69
Cost of debt

Particulars High Growth Stable Growth

Debt borrowing rate (%) 6.8% 6.8%

Expected income 26.1% 26.1%

tax rate (%)

After-tax cost of debt (%) 5.0% 5.0%

Cost For Stable

Growth Phase
5.0%

11.49%

8.30%
RATIO ANALYSIS
Ratios Formula 2018

1.) Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities 1.09

Quick Ratio Liquid Assets / Current Liabilities 0.55

2.) Solvency Ratios

Interest Coverage Ratio Operating Income / Interest Expenses 4.6

Debt-Equity Ratio Total Debt / Total Equity 0.94

3.) Profitability Ratios

Gross profit Margin Gross Profit / Sales 51.28%

Operating profit Margin Operating Profit (EBIT) / Sales 11.87%

Net profit Margin Net Profit / Sales 6.54%

Return on assets ratio Net Income/Total assets 4.88%

Return on equity ratio Net Income/Shareholder's fund 11.11%

4.) Market Value Ratios

Book value per share ratio (Shareholder's equity-Preferred Equity)/Total
20.88
common shares outstanding
Dividend Yield Ratio Dividend per share/share price 21.96%

P/E ratio Share price/Earnings per share 2.94

4.) Efficiency Ratios

Inventory Turnover Ratio COGS or SALES / Inventory 5.05

Receivable Turnover Sales / Receivable 9.58

Payable Turnover COGS / Payable 13.43

Asset Turnover Turnover / Net tangible Assets 0.82

 2019 2020 2021 2022 Inference

1.12 1.03 0.99 1.25

0.56 0.49 0.44 0.60

5.5 4.5 6.8 13.0

0.71 0.54 0.46 0.41

53.65% 53.91% 55.86% 51.47%

12.50% 10.56% 10.81% 16.08%

6.86% 6.51% 7.02% 10.84%

5.87% 5.35% 5.51% 11.66%

12.22% 10.31% 9.56% 19.75%

22.72 23.00 25.71 29.44

40.30% 56.70% 0.00% 1.34%

2.41 1.92 5.63 9.24

5.21 5.15 4.48 5.36

7.88 16.88 9.94 13.09

13.81 10.87 6.77 7.41

0.91 0.92 0.84 1.18