Good Morning:

In my first video this year I want to talk about what to expect in 2022 on the Line
of Actual Control with China and the Line of Control with Pakistan. Since both the
borders are alive this is an unprecedented situation never happened before since
independence. Now on china the start point should be to make a clear distinction
between gray-zone operations and war. Gray-zone operations are those operations
which happen below the war threshold that means when neither side fires a bullet
because if you fire a bullet the chances of escalation cannot be ruled out and it
could tip over to the other side and become war. We have seen in the last 20
months starting off April 2020 when the PLA came to occupy what the Indian
media says something like 1 000 square kilometer of Indian territory everything
can be classified as a gray-zone operation because neither side has fired a bullet the
I want to draw attention to three important things that have happened in these gray
zone operations between the two sides the first of course is the Galvan valley clash
happened on the 15th of June 2020 using all unconventional weapons like stones
and roads and such things where India lost 20 brave soldiers 10 soldiers were taken
prisoner of war by PLA the PLA conceded later that they also lost four soldiers this
event unnerved the political leadership so much that within four days on the
19thofjune 2020 Prime Minister Modi publicly said that nobody has come in our
territory nobody is sitting in our territory giving a clear message to China that we
do not have the stomach for a fight we are happy to accept your terms for peace
and tranquility on the line of actual control and this is precisely what happened and
that is the second notable event that i want to talk about which happened in
Moscow on september10th 2020when India and China signed a joint statement it
was signed for the for India by Foreign Minister Jai Shankar and his counterpart
for China wong he the key thing about this joint statement is there is no mention of
the Line of Actual Control in this and there is no mention at all of status quo ante
to April 2020 positions something that the Indian government has been saying
inside the parliament outside the parliament through the media reports that we will
get we will be able to persuade the Chinese to go back to positions they held in
April 2020 there's no mention of that in the joint statement in other words without
saying so the Indian government has accepted the Chinese term that their
November 1959 claim line will now be the recognized line by both sides in so far
as the border is concerned and the border area will of course be determined it can
take years for the two sides to do it and the third thing in the joint statement
mentioned is that both side shave agreed to a disengagement but not to a de-
escalation or ade-induction in other words the plastays in Tibet at autonomous
region because that is their permanent habitat that is their operational base where
they are doing the training and from where they will launch the war so the tensions
remain only thing what will happen is that both the sides where they are eyeballed
to eyeball they will go back a bit and this has happened in pangong so it has
happened in Gogra may happen in hot spring will certainly not happen in depth
song deep sun is the pivot for combined operations between the PLA and the
Pakistan military which I'll talk in a while it will not happen there no
disengagement will happen there in that area now having conceded so much no
Indian government has done so much of appeasement for so little i mean we are in
gray zone operation and you appease the Chinese so much you accept that terms
for peace but thanks to the Indian army their bravery and that is the third point that
I want to make about which is the spectacular action done on the august of 29th
30th night2020.when they in a sudden move at night they went and occupied the
Kalash range which is south pangong the north was already occupied by the PLA
they came and occupied this it is almost certain that the clearance for this was
given by the army chief and the government was not aware of this because the
government was already preparing to sign the joint statement within weeks in
Moscow with the Chinese now obviously the conclusion that the Chinese drew
were very simple Modi government has agreed to our terms but the Indian army
can be difficult now how to tame the Indian army was the question so to tame the
Indian army they have done two things one they came up with their boundary law
which has become operative on the 1st of January this year 2022.according to the
boundary law the border issue is no longer a border dispute it is the issue of
sovereignty when you raise it to that level that means you're ready to fight and yet
the PLA doesn't want to fight China doesn't want to fight because the time is not
right for them for a fight so what did they do we know last two days that they have
now brought instead of the border guards which is their first line of defense the
border guards they are slowly being replaced by robots rope was fitted with
machine guns not with rifles in other words as they are the first line of defense if
the Indian army tries to be as far as the PLA is concerned brave or whatever you
may call it another time at another place then what stops the robo is being fired
robo's firing the machine gun at the Indian soldiers and killing them because this
can always be explained by the PLA in China that the machine had gone rethe
machine misbehaved humans were not involved in that which of course is not true
because these robots are not they are controlled by the humans so these are the two
actions which they have taken this is what is happening in the gray-zone area now
let's see what's happening in the war as far as war is concerned the I am very sorry
to say in the last 20 months are three star and four star officers of all the two
services the air force and the army they have not shown any aptitude for
understanding the PLA war because the PLA war will be a robotic war in this
robotic war it will be no longer about how many soldiers can control one tank that
how many soldiers are required to operate one tank it will be about how many
unmanned tanks can one soldier control this is what the situation is and this is what
the robotic war will be about in other words what will happen in this war is that the
soldier or the officer he will command the cloud and it is the cloud which will
control the unmanned tanks and the guns because they are unmanned they don't
have to cater for the crew comfort they don't have to cater for the crew safety they
can be small they can be cheap they can be lethal a lot of lethality can be put into it
so this is precisely the war that we are looking at where the human will not be in
the loop the human will be on the loop which basically means just to operate the
emergency button if things go horribly wrong or it will be out of the loop it will be
artificial intelligence at work so the war that they are preparing for will be a multi-
dimensional multi-domain a complex war and the preparation for this war the
plawar it started in 2017 with the doklam crisis the doklam when everybody in
India a military leadership a political leadership analyst anybody and everybody
declared it was India's victory it was actually the victory of the PLA because that is
when they started the preparation for the robotic war now once we understand the
gray zone areas we understand the preparation for war that is going on and I have
of course written a book on this the book is likely to come out in the summer on
the robotic ward that India has to prepare for so what will happen in 2022 is two
things number one the Chinese will put extraordinary pressure on the Modi
government to agree to the terms and to operationalize the joint statement which
has been signed in September which was signed in September 2020.that is one that
will happen and the second thing that we will see is that the preparation for the
robotic war will continue we will see more and more robust more and more robots
doing training on the tip autonomous region not only doing the border guarding
actually doing the training we'll seerobots so this is how things will unfold in 2022
which means that the situation as far as we are concerned India is concerned it will
not look good now let's see the line of control with Pakistan now as far as line of
control with Pakistan I think one big mistake blunder done by the government was
without thoughtless blunder was on the5th of august 2019when they changed the
status of Jammu and Kashmir by doing so what used to be the interoperability
between the PLA and the Pakistan military it converted into combined operations
that means both sides now having achieved a certain degree of interoperability
which started way back interoperability started in 2011.We may recall in 2011 the
then Army Chief General VK Singh he had said that there are something like 3000
to four thousand of PLA troops in Pakistan occupied Kashmir something like
eleven thousand PLA troops are in Gilgit Pakistan so from then of course starting
2012 there was Shaheen series of air force exercises between the PLA and the
Pakistan Air Force and then there was the warrior series of exercises which is the
special forces exercises this was all interoperability now we have come to the stage
of combined operations and the theater for this combined operation is very clearly
marked it will be Kashmir the valley it will be Ladakh it will be shiachan it will be
gilked Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir and we are not looking at a two-
front war we are looking at a one-front reinforced war why I say that one front
reinforced war is because there are a lot of indicators that this is happening the
biggest indicator is we know now this is all news we know that something like10
to 12 additional Pakistan military officers have been posted in their embassy in
Beijing now they are meant for procurements for operational procurements in other
words in case of a war the Pakistan military will be able to fire at intense rates of
fire something that the Indian military will not be able to do because they will have
a very smooth flow of operational logistics which involves a high-end specialized
ammunition spare parts and everything and anything to do with war then there is
news that they the Pakistani officers are there in the PLA joint staff department of
the central military commission this is unprecedented joint staff department is
where the joint planning happens for the conventional war and for the nuclear war
in so far as the PLA is concerned and the Pakistan observers or officers are there
then they are there in the western theater command they are there in Xinjiang
military command so they are all over and this is what joint planning is all about
that is going on not only that then two very notable things have happened one is
that Pakistan Air Force especially after their good performance in Balakot in the
day after the Balakot air attacks when they did their operation swift retort they
gave a very good performance and after that it was obviously decided that while
the war concepts of the Pakistan military will remain the same as the Indian
military the Pakistan Air Force is likely to take the lead in the war so under the
Pakistan air force they have created the joint artificial intel joint center for artificial
intelligence and computing and the top project the number one project given to
thissynth aicas it is called is cognitive electronic warfare cognitive electronic
warfare is about artificial intelligence in electronic warfare now you only do that if
you also have a good understanding about electronic spectrum management which
means that is also going on this is the key thing this is where they in any case gave
a good display of themselves in operation swiftly taught the other thing that is
happening is there is a report that the Pakistan Air force will begetting the J-20s
from china now j-20 is a fourth generation stealth fighter and the j-20chief
engineer is on record saying that it will have artificial intelligence in it this is a
very key step having artificial intelligence in this why because in the older aircraft
when we had the combat aircraft the key thing always was maneuverability now
once the standoff missiles long-range missiles they came in then maneuverability
lost its importance and what gained importance is information how do you deny
information to the enemy which you can do with stealth and you can do with
electronic warfare this j20is stealth and electronic warfare cognitive electronic
warfare is precisely what scent and aic is doing center for artificial intelligence and
computing under the pakistan air force is doing and how do you give yourself
information tactical situation and control of fire you do that simply by the use of
artificial intelligence there is so much of data coming that the data needs to be
processed and you and you close the kill chain fast kill chain is your sensor to
shoot aloop or what is also called the uddaloop which is your observe orient decide
an act which is a very common uh term which is used by the air force soall this is
going on and along with that what we have is we have beduwe have bethu 45 uh
satellite constellation which has become operative now which will provide the
position navigation and timing for the missiles of the Pakistan military when you
see this whole picture support coming in cyber from china support coming in pnt
from china vedu providing situation awareness the j-20is also coming in the sent
aic then you see these officers being posted at all the key places smooth operation
allogistics what do you think is going on what is going on is very simple
preparation for the combined operations the operations of the Pakistan just
whenever the PLA decides to go to war with India they are preparing for the
robotic war within us one because the Indian assets will be distributed Indian assets
air force asset will be there against the PLA plus and that is the time the PLA air
force would get active and this is what is going on the preparation for combined
operations so what we will see is and of course as far as the Kashmir theater is
concerned let's be very honest about it we can have the Indian army can have avery
difficult time in case of a war in the theater in Kashmir it will find the entire theater
absolutely hostile what we keep blaming the ISI they don't have to do much now
any longer we've done it ourselves by what we did on 5th of august 2019.so when
you see this explosive situation complete chaos inside Kashmir it becomes very
clear that we could just be heading towards a very difficult situation so in 2022 as
far as Pakistan military is concerned they will continue with their preparation for
the combined operations with full support from the PLA and with Pakistan air
force being in the lead and as far as the isr is concerned they will continue with
their job in fact they don't have to do much of a job now so we will see instability
inside the cashmere theater in 2022 as it has been going on and we will again see
our senior officers are start officers I mean yesterday I read the our India's biggest
division 28 division the copware division the GOC is giving a statement that we
have killed so many infiltrators I mean this is the job of the leading commanding
officer why should why is the GOC getting involved in this but this is the state that
we have brought our military leaders army leadership to so this is so the prospect
for 2022 are certainly not good for India for and this is what we should expect to
happen in these two theaters in this year thank you very much English (auto-
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