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Insider Trading CDS
Insider Trading CDS
Credit Derivatives.
• Perhaps the most important and successful financial innovation of the last
decade.
• However, like any insurance market, credit derivatives may also entail unde-
sirable effects:
‘‘[B]anks must not use private knowledge about corporate clients to trade in-
struments such as credit default swaps (CDS), says a report drawn up by five bod-
ies including the International Swaps and Derivatives Association and the Loan
Market Association... The warning highlights the challenges credit derivatives
pose to banks and regulators trying to build a functioning market infrastructure...
[M]any banks and institutions are trading CDS instruments in the same compa-
nies they finance - sometimes because they want to reduce the risks to their own
balance sheets."
(Financial Times, April 25, 2005 - ‘Banks warned on insider trading threat
posed by market for credit derivatives’)
Why study insider trading in credit derivatives?
• Adverse selection may have undesirable consequences both for the liquidity
of the market and for its scope.
• Additional reasons:
Credit derivatives are a good laboratory for studying insider trading.
* Potentially informed players are well-identified :
- Relationship banks
• We obtained a data set of daily closing quotes for the most widely traded CDS
names (“benchmarks") from January 2001 through October 2004.
- Relationship duration
TABLE 1: S UMMARY S TATISTICS
Observations/day 9 46 62
Preliminary evidence
Hypothesis: If insiders were active in our sample, firms that experienced severe
credit deterioration may exhibit significant cross-covariance of CDS changes
with future stock returns.
Figure 1: Cross Correlation of Stock Returns and CDS Changes.
Whole Sample
0.05
−0.05
−0.1
−0.15
−0.2
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
−0.1
−0.2
−0.3
−0.4
−5 −4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4 5
lead/lag (days)
The figure shows the cross-correlation between percent changes in CDS prices at time t and stock
returns at time t + k as a function of k. In each panel the cross-correlations for individual firms
are averaged across firms.
Econometric analysis
5
stock returnt = a0 +[b0 +b1(number of insiders)](CDS innovation)t−1 + ∑ ck stock returnt−k +ε
k=1
Figure 2: Merton (1973) model credit-spread elasticity.
0
sigma = 0.125
sigma = 0.25
sigma = 0.375
−0.5
−1
−1.5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1 / CDS Level
TABLE 2:
S TOCK RETURNS ON CDS INNOVATIONS
b+
0 -0.0088 0.0216
(1.98) (2.63)
[.138] [.037]
b+
1 -0.0016
(4.38)
[.000]
b−
0 -0.0073 -0.0033
(1.61) (0.39)
[.107] [.650]
b−
1 -0.0002
(0.58)
[.600]
Alternative hypotheses
• Sub-sample approach.
• Credit conditions
- A one-day decline in CDS level of 50 basis points in future.
5
(stock return)t = a0 + ∑ [b0,k + bD
0,k · (Credit-condition Dummy)t ](CDS innovation)t−k
k=1
5
+ ∑ [c0,k + cD0,k · (Credit-condition Dummy)t ](stock return)t−k + εt .
k=1
TABLE 4: ROBUSTNESS TO CREDIT- CONDITION SUB - SAMPLES .
∑5k=1 bD
0,k −0.0492 −0.0465 −0.0224
(2.36) (2.52) (1.51)
∑5k=1 cD
0,k 0.1917 0.1338 −0.0488
(5.90) (4.68) (2.02)
Cross-sectional analysis
• Motivation
- Controls for firm-level heterogeneity in the CDS-stock market linkage.
5
(stock return)i,t = aif + ∑ bi,k
f
(CDS innovation)i,t−k + εt ,
k=1
5
θi = ∑ bi,kf .
k=1
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
• The uncovered information flow between CDS and stock markets is one-
sided: only on adverse credit news.
FM Panel FM Panel
(A) (B)
FM Panel FM Panel
• Informed players “take" liquidity when the value of information is high, and
“make" liquidity at other times.
- Bloomfield and O’Hara (1999, 2000), Hong and Rady (2002), Bloom-
field, O’Hara and Saar (2005).
We believe there is prima facie evidence that insider trading exists in the
credit derivatives markets.
• The information flow from CDS to stock markets implies an informed revi-
sion of quotes.
However, there is no evidence that this has affected adversely the liquidity
and pricing in the CDS or equity markets.
• The merits for the regulatory response thus needs to be cautiously evaluated.
Future tests
∑5k=1 bD
0,k −0.0475 −0.0714 −0.0006
(3.41) (4.17) (0.03)
∑5k=1 cD
0,k 0.0909 0.0343 −0.0584
(3.86) (1.23) (1.91)
TABLE 6
PANEL A: P ROPERTIES OF θ
Mean = 0.0043
t-stat = 0.4600
Min = −0.1961
Max = 0.3262