The situation and evolution of foreign policy analysis: a road map

- Ground: conceptualization of the fundamental or foundational level at which

phenomena in the field of study occur.
- Its upon such ground that theories are built, modified, and even discarded
- International Relations as a field of study has a ground, as well. All that occurs
between nations and across nations is grounded in human decisionmakers acting
singly or in groups.
- Understanding how humans perceive and react to the world around them, and how
humans shape and are shaped by the world around them
- States are the ground of International Relations?
- Can units (actors) be modeled as a unitary rational actor and therefore be made
equivalent to the state?
- “The ground of IR is human decisionmakers who are not best approximated as
strictly unitary rational actors, and who are not equivalent to the state”
- “The state is a metaphysical abstraction that is useful as a shorthand for IR’s ground
but cannot be a realistic conceptualization of it.

Hallmarks of foreign policy analysis theory

Explanandum: that which is to be explained in Foreign Policy Analysis
- The decisions taken by human decisionmakers with reference to or having known
consequences for entities external to their nation-state
- It may include decisions that target domestic entities but have ramifications for
external entities
- One is almost always examining not a single decision, but a constellation of
decisions taken with reference to a particular situation
- Decisions may be modified over time, requiring an examination of sequences of
decisions
- FPA traditionally finds itself most interested in decisions taken by human
decisionmakers, in positions of authority to commit the resources of the nation-
state, thought it is possible to analyze decisionmakers who do not hold such
positions
- In the case where there is no international component, the decision can be analyzed,
but probably would not be analyzed by foreign policy analyst, but domestic policy
analysts. Some have pointed that in conditions of globalization, all politics has
become foreign policy in one way or the other
- Analysts tend to work with historical data, as current data is, generally, private
because of national security concerns
- Events data
 - Distinction between foreign policy decision and foreign policy action. A decision
may never result in action. There may be a decision taken not to act, or there may be
insufficient consensus among the members of the decision-making group to act
- The decision may be taken to act in a way that does not reveal, and indeed, is
possibly designed to conceal, the true decision taken
- Implementation issues routinely plague even the most important decisions to act,
often leading to profound slippage between the direction of the decision taken and
the direction of the action executed. They can be unintentional or intentional.
- In addition to the distinction between decision and action, there is also a distinction
to be made between decision and outcome. Complete success is extremely rare.
Explanans: that which will provide explanation in foreign policy analysis
- Those factors that influence foreign policy decision-making and foreign policy
decisionmakers
- Color of the room (lol)
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