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Discusses the signs that scientists use to predict volcanic eruptions.


(/c/earth-science/effusive-eruptions) (/c/earth-
science/types-of-volcanoes)
Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

[Figure1]

Can she see your future?

No one can predict exactly when a volcanic eruption will take place. Scientists do a bit better
forecasting volcanic eruptions than earthquakes (/c/earth-science/earthquakes). Still, volcanologists
have a high fatality rate because forecasting eruptions is so difficult.

Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

Many pieces of evidence can mean that a volcano is about to erupt, but the time and magnitude of
the eruption are difficult to pin down. This evidence includes the history of previous volcanic activity,
earthquakes (/c/earth-science/earthquakes), slope deformation, and gas (/c/physical-science/gas)
emissions.

History of Volcanic Activity

A volcano’s history — how long since its last eruption and the time span between its previous
eruptions — is a good first step to predicting eruptions. Active and dormant volcanoes (/c/earth-
science/volcanoes) are heavily monitored, especially in populated areas.

Earthquakes
Moving magma shakes the ground, so the number and size of earthquakes (/c/earth-
science/earthquakes) increases before an eruption. A volcano that is about to erupt may produce a
sequence of earthquakes. Scientists use seismographs that record the length and strength of each
earthquake to try to determine if an eruption is imminent.

Slope Deformation
Magma and gas (/c/physical-science/gas) can push the volcano’s slope upward. Most ground
deformation is subtle and can only be detected by tiltmeters, which are instruments that measure the
angle of the slope of a volcano. But ground swelling may sometimes create huge changes in the
shape of a volcano. Mount St. Helens grew a bulge on its north side before its 1980 eruption. Ground
swelling may also increase rock falls and landslides.

Gas Emissions
Gases may be able to escape a volcano before magma reaches the surface. Scientists measure gas
(/c/physical-science/gas) emissions in vents on or around the volcano. Gases, such as sulfur dioxide
(SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrochloric acid (/c/chemistry/acid) (HCl), and even water
(/c/biology/water) vapor can be measured at the site (Figure below) or, in some cases, from a
distance (/c/physics/distance) using satellites. The amounts of gases and their ratios are calculated to
help predict eruptions.

Scientists monitoring gas emissions at Mount St. Helens. [Figure2]

Remote Monitoring
Some gases can be monitored using satellite technology (Figure below). Satellites also monitor
temperature (/c/earth-science/temperature) readings and deformation. As technology improves,
scientists are better able to detect changes in a volcano accurately and safely.
An earth observation (/c/physical-science/observation) satellite. [Figure3]

Evacuate?
Since volcanologists are usually uncertain about an eruption, officials may not know whether to
require an evacuation. If people are evacuated and the eruption doesn’t happen, the people will be
displeased and less likely to evacuate the next time there is a threat of an eruption. The costs of
disrupting business are great. However, scientists continue to work to improve the accuracy of their
predictions.

Iceland: How to predict volcano eruptions

 Clues in the Ash -- predicting volcanic eruptions

Summary
Volcanologists use several lines of evidence to try to forecast volcanic eruptions.
Magma moving beneath a volcano will cause earthquakes and slope deformation. Gases may
be released from the magma out of the volcano vent.
Deciding whether to call for an evacuation is very tricky.

Review
1. What are the detectable signs that magma is moving beneath a volcano?
2. What are the consequences of incorrectly predicting a volcanic eruption?
3. How would a successful prediction of a volcanic eruption resemble a successful prediction of
an earthquake?
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Image Attributions
[Figure 1]
License: CC BY-NC (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/)

[Figure 2]
Credit: Courtesy of TJ Casadevall/US Geological Survey;Zappy's
Source: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Emissions/description_msh_gases.html
(http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/MSH/Emissions/description_msh_gases.html);CK-12
Foundation;https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth520/content/l6_p2.html (https://www.e-
education.psu.edu/earth520/content/l6_p2.html)
License: Public Domain; CC BY-NC 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/)

[Figure 3]
Credit: Courtesy of the NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center;Zappy's
Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Artist_concept_of_the_GPM_Core_Observatory_satellite.jpg
(http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Artist_concept_of_the_GPM_Core_Observatory_satellite.jpg);CK-12
Foundation;https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth520/content/l6_p2.html (https://www.e-
education.psu.edu/earth520/content/l6_p2.html)
License: Public Domain; CC BY-NC 3.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/)

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