Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Inequality and Authoritarianism in the

Developing Countries

Hamanaka, Shingo

Yamagata University

31 November 2008

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/16798/
MPRA Paper No. 16798, posted 15 Aug 2009 07:14 UTC
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
sm
i
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

＊
Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

Abs
trac
t
Thi
sre
sea
rcha
tte
mpt
sat
heo
ret
ica
land q
uant
it
ati
vea
nal
ysi
sofa
utho
rit
ari
an
r
egi
mese
ndur
ingi
nthed
eve
lopi
ngc
ount
ri
es.Wea
tte
mptc
omput
erv
isua
li
zat
iono
f
t
he mo
deld
eve
lope
dby Ac
emo
glua
nd Ro
bins
oni
nor
dert
ode
riv
eane
mpi
ri
cal
hy
pot
hes
ise
asi
ly
.The
rei
sar
eas
onf
orust
oac
ceptt
hemo
delt
hatt
heyb
uil
dont
he
pr
inc
ipl
eofd
yna
mics
toc
has
ticg
ene
rale
qui
li
bri
um.Thenume
ric
als
imul
ati
ond
esc
rib
es
ac
aus
alr
ela
tio
nshi
pbe
twe
en na
tio
nali
nco
me s
har
ing a
nd r
egi
me c
hang
e,a
nd
d
eli
nea
test
hee
cono
mici
mpa
cto
fre
gimet
rans
for
mat
ions
.Ther
and
ome
ffe
ctso
rde
red
pr
obi
tana
lys
iso
fpa
neld
atapr
ovi
dese
vid
enc
etha
tsuppo
rtst
hehy
pot
hes
isf
romt
he
s
imul
ati
on.Thi
sre
sul
tco
ntr
ibut
est
oempi
ri
cald
emo
cra
tiz
ati
ons
tud
iesb
eca
useo
fno
n
a
dhe
renc
eto a po
sit
iver
ela
tio
nshi
pbe
twe
eni
neq
ual
it
yand d
emo
cra
cya
mong
q
uant
it
ati
ver
ese
arc
hes
.
Ac
cor
dingt
oTheEc
ono
micOr
igi
nso
fDi
cta
tor
shi
pandDe
moc
rac
y,t
hepo
orha
ve
noi
nce
nti
vef
orr
egi
met
rans
for
mat
iona
nda
utho
rit
ari
anr
egi
mesa
repr
ese
rve
dina
s
tat
eofe
qui
li
bri
um i
nco
mpa
rat
ive
lye
qua
lso
cie
tie
s.

Wha tc ond i
tions d emo cra t
izead icta
torship? Thisi sa n impo rt
ant sub j
ec ti n
compa rati
v e poli
tics.The mo d ernizati
on pa radi
g m ha sa l
readyt ri
edt oa nswert his
que s
t i
on.Ac cordingt oLi ps et(１９５９) ,d emo cracye nduresi na f
fl
uents oc
iety
.Hev e rif
ied
the hy pothesisfr o
m c o
r r
e la
tionsb e
twe e nc r
o ss
-secti
ona ggregateindic
atorso fwe alt
h.
Ano therpo pularwo rki nsisted no te cono mi cg rowthb utinstit
uti
onali
zati
on wa sak ey
fac
tor. Hunt ington ( １９６８) i de nti
fiest hati nsti
tuti
onali
zedr egi
mes we r
ea n e xplici
t
prerequisi
tef ore c
o no micg r
owt hi ndepe nd entlyo fdemo cr
acyo rno tint her esearcho f
ma nyhi st
o ri
calca s
e sa roundt hewo r
ld.
Themo de r
nizations choolf a
ce dt heb reakdowno fd e
mo crat
icregimesi nd eveloping
count r
iesl at
e ra nd wa st here f
oret houg htt ol oseitso wn v i
abil
it
y.The b ureauc rati
c
autho r
ita
rian( BA)a rg ume nte x plai
ne dame c
ha nis
mo fconfl
ic
tsb et
we enregimesa ndl abor
sectorpr ompte dac o up.Thei mpl i
c at
iono fBAt heorywa stherewa sno nli
nerr e
lati
o nship
betwe en po l
iti
calr eg i
me sa nd e co nomi cg rowth.O’ Donne l
l(１９７９)g ivesa nalternative
explanati
ono fthemo dernizati
o nt he ory,e special
lyLipsetthesis.
Ho we ver,thewa v eo fd emo c
ra t
ization,o rr edemocrat
izat
ion,ledtob ot
ht hereviv alas

＊ Fa
cul
tyo
fEd
uca
tio
n,Ar
tandSc
ienc
e,Ya
mag
ataUni
ver
sit
y

５７
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

we l
la st her ec ons tit
utiono fd e mo cr atizati
ont he oriest ha tc ont ai
ne dt heo l
dpa r
adigm.
O’Do nne l
l,Sc hmi tt
e r,a nd Whi tehe a d( １９８６) ,a ne arlys tudyo ft hisr e vival
,ma ket he
impo rtants ug ge stiont ha titi st hed ec i
s i
o no fd i
c tatorst ha td etermi nest heb reakdowno f
ana ut ho ri
ta ri
a nr eg i
me .Pr e vi
o uss tud iesd e di
ca tede ffortst os pe cifyi
ngwha tc onditi
ons
fac
ili
tated emo crat i
za t
ion,b utd idno ts pe ci
fyt hec o nd i
tionst hata l
lowl eade rst od eci
de
whe the rt or e nounc ed i
c tatorshi ps .Af tert hat,s e verals t
ud ies pa ida ttenti
ont ot he
decisionsa nde nviro nme nta lc ond itionso fleaders hip,t hes o -
ca l
led“ actora ppr oa
ch.”
Thef ind ingo fBAt he or yla te rt ur ne do utt ob eas tudyf ound edo nad ista
nto utli
ne r
sampl e.Pr ze wo rs ki’sg roupr ev iewst her esearcho ft hemo d ernizationt he orya ndf ound
sever alr es ults.Fo rus ,t he rei st hre ei nterestedkno wled geo ft he m:( １)i tise asyt o
predictwhe the rd e mo crac yi se nd urings tati
sti
cally,b uti ti sa lmo s timpo ss i
b l
et opr edic
ti t
isb orno ra bo rt.( ２) Di c t
ato rshi ps a re muc h mo rev ulnera ble und ert he une qual
dis
tribut iono fi nco me .(３)De mo cr acie sr ema ins tab l
ei nr elativelye quals ocieties
.
Altho ug ht he rea r
ev aluablei ns ig htsa mo ngt hewo r
ko fPr z ewo rski(２０００) ,mo del
deve l
opme ntt oe x plai
n po lit
ical-e co no mi cr elati
o ns hipr ema insa ni ssue.The s ta
tist
ical
researc hesf orc r oss-sectiono rt ime s eriesd ata ha v e me asurea g g
r egatev ari
ables,
assume dt ha te cono mi cg rowt ho rc r i
s isa ffect
sapo li
ticalr egimei nwho l
es incet hewo r
k
ofLi pse t.The r
e fore ,anumb ero fl itera turesa rel a ckingi nt hei d eao fma c r
ot he or
ywi t
h
microt heo re t
icf ound ati
o ns.I ti st ha twes houldt hinkaho li
s ti
cs ocialcha ng eisf ounded
onc o l
le cti
v eb e ha vioro fi nd i
vid ua la cto rs.Thepr inciplee mpha sizesi nte rnalc onsis
tency
oft he mo de lt od escribe ho wt oc ha nge po l
itica lr eg i
me sb yi nt eract
io n wi t
he xpl
icit
behav i
o ro fa cto rsund e rg ivens oc io-e conomics ituation.Thi si sar ea sont oe mb r
a c
e
for
ma lt heo rya ppr oachi nt hi spa pe r.
Thi spa pe ri sc ompo sedo ft hef o ll
o wingf ourpa rts.Thef irstpa rtletust orev i
ewt he
li
teratur ea b outf o rma lthe o rya swe l
la se mpi ri
ca ls tudie sfo rpo l
iti
c alregime sa nds tateo f
thee c
o no my ,e spe cial
lyt hes tateo fi nc omed istribut i
on.Thene xts t episc oncernedwi t
h
obtaininga ni nfe renc ef romc omput ers i
mul ati
onso ft heAc e mo glua ndRo binsonmo del.
The nwewi llb uildahy po the s
iso fr e gimee ndur ing :lo wi nco mei ne q
ua l
itypr ese rv
e sthe
autho r
ita r
ia nr egime sint hed ev elo pingc ountri
e s.Thet hirds howst hatt hehy po t
hesisi s
testedi npa ne ld a taa nalysiswi tht heo rderedpr o bitmo del.Thel astpa rtisad i
scussionto
establi
s ht hev alidit
ya ndpe r s
pe c tiveo ft hisr esea rch.

１.TheLi
ter
atur
e

1.
1Fo rmalMo del
sofPolit
icalDevel
opme nt
An e poch-maki
ng wo rdin ma croecono mi
c sis“ Lucas’
s Criti
que.” RobertLuc as
cr
itici
zeda ndund erminedt hefoundat
iono ftheKe y
ne s
iane conomictheory,whichwast he
mains t
rea
mt heor
ya tthatt i
me .Hec l
aimedt hattheKe ynesi
ane conomictheorydidno t
as
s ume t ha te a
ch househo l
dd ec
ide
si tsc onsumption patt
e r
ns byr e
ck o
ning i
tso wn
expec t
edi ncome ino therwo rd
s,t he e conometri
cst reate
da ggr
e g
ate ma cr
oec
onomi c
varia
b l
eswi t
houtmicroeconomicfound a
tions.Ama cr
oecono mi
cv ari
ableshouldbethes um
oft he v ar
iabl
es thatd es
cribe ind i
vid
ua lb ehaviors in t he ma rket. There
for e
,

５８
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

ma croec onomi cthe o rymus tb ee stab l

ishe do nt hemi croe c ono mi cl ev elt oa na l
yz ea ny
individuald ec i
sion pr o ble ms .The Ke ynes i
ane cono mict he o ry wa sf o r
ce do uto ft he
ma instream;b ot
hne oc l
a ss ica le cono mic sa ndt hene w Ke y ne siant he oryc amei ntof as hion
１
beca useo ft he i
rmo d el-bui ldings tyleb asedo nt hec ommo nmi cr of ound a t
ion.
Iti spo ssibl
et hatt hes ub stanceo f“ Luc as’sCr i
tique ”ho l
dst ruef oro the rs o cia
l
sci
e nce s,po liti
cals c i
e nc e ,o rs ociology.The ma crot heo ryo fs ocials ci
e nces ho uldb e
estab l
ishedo nmi crot he or eticalf ound ationst hate xpl ai
na nyi nd ividua lc hoice sa swe llas
prefe r
enc es.The mo d er ni zation pa radigm,b ureauc rati
ca ut ho ritarianism,o rc o rpora ti
sm
theo ri
esa rec ommo nl yd e vo i
do fami crot he orya ndt husc a nno tb ea ppliedt omo d ern
politic
ala naly si
swi tho utr e vis i
o n.Ev eni far ese ar
che re mpl o ye das tati
s ti
cala ppr oach,e .g.
Larg eN s tud ies,b yus ingt hea bov epo l
iti
c alt heories,hewo ul do nlyo b t
aina ne mpi rica
l
ruleo nt hed at
aa st her es ult.Hewo uldl a
ps ei nto“ me asur eme ntwi tho utt he or y.
”
Ther iseo fthe“ ac to ra ppr oach”wa sr efe rredt oa bo ve .I nmo s tc ases ,a ut horitar i
an
brea kdownsa ndt hee me rg enc eo fd emo c rati
za ti
onha veb ee nt r i
g gere db ythed e cisi
o nso f
politic
all eade rsa nda r eno ta ssoc i
atedwi thr evolution.Se v e ralpr e viouss tud i
e s ,inc l
ud ing
thato fO’ Do nne l
le t.a l
.( １９８６)o rPr ze wo rski(１９９１) ,ha vemi crof ound ationso wi ngt ot he
focuso nt hei nte r
a ctionb etwe eni nc umb entsa ndo ppositio ns.Ho we v ert he irwo rksd i
d
noto verco mea na na l
o g y,i twa sWe ing ast(１９９７)whopr oduc e dt hef i
rstwo rko nt he
mo d elwi tha ne xplicitd es criptiono ft hepl ay er’
spr eferenc e
sa ndb e ha vi
o rs.Theg ame
theo ryi sc onv enientf ord epi ctingd e cisi
o n-ma kingpr ocess esund erunc ertainty .The refo re,
demo crati
zatio ns tud iesa rei ncreasing lya do pti
ng a g ame t heo reticf rame wo r
k.Fo r
exampl e , we c an po int t o Ge ddes( １９９９) who f orma l
ize dd if
fere nt r o bus tne sso f
autho ri
tarianr egime st od e mo c
r a
tization,a nd Bo ixa nd St o rks ( ２００３)who d es cribed
demo crati
zatio na ndpo litica ld ec ayi nt heg amet heo reti
cf o rm,t husa vo i
d i
ngt hi sc ommo n
fal
lac y
.
Ma crol e vels tud ie so fc o mpa rativepo liti
c swi thmi crof o und ationsa reg ettingmo re
inf
lue ncedb yt he mo d er n ma croe conomi c s,r egard l
e s
so fo ne ’
s wi she s.Att he l e ast,
politic
ale cono mistsc a nno td i
s c
us st he e conomi ci nf luenc e o ver po l
itics wi thout
ackno wle dginge cono mi ct he ory.Thi sf actf orce dust od ec idewhe the rt oa cco mmo datea n
assumpt i
on— t heo ptimi za ti
o nb yi nd i
v id
ua la ct
ors— o rno t.Thi sa ssumpt io ni mpl i
es
thatape rsond ecide sf o rt hef uture ;thise nab l
e sust owe ig hi nd ividua lpo liti
c ald ecisions
und ert heut il
ityma x imi za tionpr inciplec ommo ntomo derne co nomi ct he or
ie s.Wi tho uti t,
wewo ulde nc ount eral arg eo b
s t
a cl
et oc ond ucti
ngac o he re nta naly sisb e ca us eo fa n
unc l
e arpr es umpt iona b outt he b ehav i
orb ehind the mo de l.The a cco mmo d ationo ft he
optima ld ecisionr uleb ya ctorsi nvolve sat he o ryo fpo lit
ic ale cono myb a
se do nd y na mic
stocha sti
cg e nerale q uilib rium mo dels( DSGE) .Iti st he o nl y wo rko fAc e mo gl
ua nd
Rob insont ha ts etupt hed emo cratizati
o nt he oryb ase do nt hef ound a ti
ono fDSGE.Thi sis
ther ea
s ont ha twee mb r ac et he irmo de l
.

１ Se
eKa
t ２００７)a
o( ndSa
it ２００６)
o( .

５９
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

1.2Emp iri
ca ls t
ud ieso nt h er e l
atio ns h i
pb etwe eni ne q
ua lit
ya ndp oliti
c alreg ime s
Thel iter at
ur eo ft her elatio ns hi pb e twe eni neq ua litya ndpo l
iticalr egime se x hibited
thre e pa tt
er nso fe mpi ricale v i
d e nc e,( １)i nco me i ne q ualityd es t
a bil
izesd emo cr
a cy,(２)
ther ei s no s tatist
ic als ig nifi
c anc eb e t
we e ni ne qua litya nd po li
t ic
alr eg i
me s,a nd (３)
demo c
ratiz
a tioni ni t
iallyi nc re ase st he i nc o me g apb etwe e nt he r icha nd t he po orb ut
sub se quentlypo l
iticale li
te st ryt or e duc ei t.
Muller( １９８５, １９８８, １９９５)s uppo rt
st hef i
rs tr e
s ul t.Hi ss tud iess tatisticall
ys ho wt he
neg at i
ve r elati
o nship b etwe en po l
iti
c als tab il
ity a nd e c ono mi c i ne qua l
ity, wi thin
demo c
racies.Ac co rdingt oMul ler( １９９５) ,i ne qua lityha sas i
g nificant l
yne g at
iv ee ffecto n
demo c
racyi n hi sr e g ress iona na ly sis,r e sulting i nt he c onc l
us io n“ inc ome i ne qua l
ity
hind e r
sd emo cr
a tization,a nd t hisne ga t
iv ee ffe cte x plainst he pa r adoxicalt re nd a mo ng
count r
iesa ti nte rme d iatel e velso fe cono mi cd e velo pme ntf ord e mo crac yt od ec r
ea se
２
inste ado fi ncrea se.” Hi sc o nc lus ionc o ncur s wi t h a ma j
ort heore ti
c ali mpl ication:
demo c
ratiz
a tiono re nfra nc hising pe ople pr ov i
d e st he c ha nc eo fd ecre asing i ne qua l
ity
３
thro ughhi g he rr edistrib utiv et a xe s. Mul l
e r’se x plana tionpr e dictst hatpo l
iticald ec aywi l
l
appe a rund erno nfunc tio na ld emo c rac y.
Thes t
a tist
ica la na lysiso fBo lle na ndJ ackma n( １９８５)a d he rest ot hes e condr e s
ul t
.
Bo ll
e na ndJ ackma npa ya ttent i
o nt ot hepr o cedur eo ft hemo de ls pec i
fic
a tion,l estt he yg et
trappe di ntob oths pe c ifi
c ationa ndme as ure me ntpr o ble msf rom pr eviouss tud ies.The i
r
simul t
aneous -equa tionsmo delpr o v id ese mpi r
ica le v ide ncet ha ti ne qualityc anno te xplain
varia nceo fpo li
ticalr eg i
me s .Thema jorc o nclus ioni s“ politicald emo cra cya nde co nomi c
ineq ualit
yd ono ts eeml ink edi na nyme aning f
ulwa y.I ti spo ss i
blet hatfut ures t
ud ieswi th
bette rme asur es,al arg ers a mpl e,a na lter na ti
ves pec ifi
c ati
o n,o rs o mec o mb i
na tiono ft he
abo ve ,mi ghtpr ov i
dee v i
d enc eo fad e mo c racy- i
ne qua li
tyl inka ge.”４
Gasio r
o ws ki(１９９７)i s
ano the rstud yt ha ts uppo rtst hes e co ndr es ult.Hi sma inc onc lusioni stha ti ndus trialwa ge
growt hi .
e.,t hei nde xo fi ne qua lity,ha snos igni f
ica ntr elations hipwi ths pe cif
icpo l
it
ic a
l
regime s.
Simpso n( １９９０)i sauni ques t udyt ha tb ac ksupt het hirdr esult
.Her eg ardst he
ineq ualit
y-po lit
icalr e g i
me r elati
o na s a no nline arf o rm a nd b uild s up t he po l
y no mi a
l
func tionmo d elfo rhi se mpi ri
c alt e st .Si mps onhy pot he sizest hatas ma llmi noritywi llus e
theirpo lit
icalr ig htsf ort he iro wn i ntere st sd uringt hee arlys tag eso fd emo crac ya nd
henc e,thepo li
ti
c alpr oc esswi lli nc r easei ne qua lityo re xpa ndi nco meg apsb et we ent he
richa nd t he po o r.Si nc ea ne nl ar gedc o nstitue nc ya ppe arst o pa rt
ic i
pa tei n po l
it
ic s
,
eco no micine qualitywi llg ra dua l
lyd ec l
ine .Thi sg ivesusa ni ma geo fpo li
ticald e mo cr acya s
hav inga ni nv e r
te d-Uc ur ver elatio ns hipwi thi ne q uality.Hi sr e gre ssionmo delpr ove st hat
thee ffectofd emo cr
a cyo ni nc omei ne qualityi ss ta t
istic all
ys ignificant .
Thes ta ti
sticala ppr o acho fthel iteratur eha sac o mmo npr ob l
e mo ft heme tho dologic a
l

２ Mulle １９９５,
r( ９７５).
３ Me l
tzerandRi c
har
d(１９８１)e x
hibi
tthei
mpl
ic
ati
onf
romt
hei
rfo
rma
lmo
delo
fel
ect
ionpo
lit
icsa
ndo
pti
mal
re
distr
ibut
ion.
４ Boll
ena ndJackma １９８５,
n( ４５０).

６０
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

l
imi tati
o no fa ppl
yingc ros
s-se c
tiond ataa nalysi
s.Thi sr esearchc annota ssistina nalyzing
uns ystema t
ica ndl owq ual
ityd ata-
setsc ontaini
ngs everalmissingv alues.Ho we ver,wec an
bene fi
tf rom as ystema ti
cc ollect
iono fd atao nc omparati
vepo li
ti
cale cono my.So mehi gh
qua li
tyd ata-setse nab l
er esearcherstoa na lyzet hee ff
ecto fincomei nequa l
it
yo npo l
iti
c a
l
regimed ynami cs,no to nlyinc ross-s
e cti
onb uta ls
oi nat i
me -
s eri
esd ir
e cti
on.Bo i
x(２００３)
appl i
espo olinge stima t
ionsfro m hiso wnpa neld atasetandg et
st heo ppo sit
er esulttous :
５
equa li
typr omo tesd e mocracy
. Theb as i
cd atao fe conomice qualit
yi sDe iningera ndSq uire
(D&S)i nt hes t
udyo fBo i
x.D&Si sami lestoner e
se a
rchpr oje
c tthatprod ucedad ata
se tof
eco nomi cine quali
tyi nc ross-countryc ompa rison.D&Sd a
tai swi delyus e dfore mpi ri
c a
l
stud ie
si nc ompa rati
v epo l
it
icso re conome tri
c s
.Thi sd ata,howe ver,containsma nymi ssing
value sa swe llasd upli
cateind ic
esd uet ot hec omplic
a t
ionso fr esearchuni ts,ur b
ano r
rura l
,pe rsona lo rf amily
.Ad am Pr zewo rskic autionsthehy po t
hese sb etwe ene cono mic
６
i
ne q ual
itya ndd emo cracya rea l
mo s
ti mpo s
s i
blet ot estb ecauseo ft hed atad efi
ciency.
Co ns equentl
y ,oure mpi ri
calre sear
cha ppro achiss ub j
ecttot hef ol
lowingpr o c
edur efort he
util
iz a
tiono fpa neld ata.

２.ModelandSi
mul
ati
on

2.1Th eBa s
icMo del
We f i
rstintrod
ucet he mo delo fpoli
tic
a leconomicsdevel
ope
db y Acemogl
ua nd
Robinson(２００６).Thismo delbuil
dsas oci
etywithnc i
tiz
ens
.Theno t
ati
onyi ref
ersto
inco
meo fpers
o ni＝１,２,.
..
,n.Le tusus ethesuperscri
ptitodenot
es oc
ialcl
ass
e swi
thi＝
po rr.
Ther ic
hha veaf ixe
di ncmeyr a
o ndthei nco
meo fthepo
o syp ＜ yr.Theno
ri t
ati
on
θ i sthes har
eo ftot
alincomea ccr
uingt other i
ch.Thepo orarethema j
ori
ty,sothei
r
porti
onre pr
esents１－δ＞１/ ２i ntheno rmal
izedpopulat
ion.

（１）

whe e０＜θ＜１.Thema
r gnit
udeo fθ ai ndi
c a
testhed egreeofincomei nequali
ty
.yis
t
heme anincome .Itisea s
yf orust orec ognieyp＜y
z ＜yr.
Web egi
nund e
rad ictat
orshi
p.Po liti
calleadersar eabletoc arryo utd is
creti
onar
y
f
iscalpoli
cy,tax,andr ed
istri
butionwi t
ho utthea pprova
lo fac onst
it
ue ncy
.Ther ic
hc arr
y
weightinpub l
icpo l
icyde ci
sionma king,ma nyo fthe mb ei
ngi ntheinne rc i
rcl
eo fpower.
Theyt endtoe njoylowert axrateaswe lla sli
ttl
er edi
stri
buti
on,theo pti
ma ltaxrat
eb ei
ng
zeroforther i
ch.
The feasibi
li
tyo fa r evoluti
ond ependso nt he fol
lowi
ng cons t
rai
nts;μ＜θ.μ
denotesal ostfract
ionofi ncomed uet oar evoluti
on,０ μ＜１.I ft hepo ora t
tempteda
re
v ol
uti
o nwitht heb i
ndingc onstr
aintands ucce
e ded,theywo uldgetVp( R,μ).Fo l
lowi
ng

５ Bot
hFengandZak(１９９９)andRe
uve
nya ２００３)s
ndLi( uppo
rtt
hiso
pini
on.
６ Pr
zewo
rskieta
l ２０００,
.( １１７).

６１
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

t
hevi
ctor
y,t
hepoorwouldhav
et heaver
agena
tio
nali
nco
med
ivi
dede
qua
ll
yamo
ngt
hem.
Ther
ichwoul
dlo
seallthei
rproper
ty.

（２）

Bothpo l
it
ici
ansa swe l
lastheri
chho petoavertsuchad i
sastr
ouso utc
omea ndt hus,
thereisa nincent
ivet oincr
easethepa y
offoft
hepo orthrougha nincomer edi
stri
buti
on
poli
cy.Thepo orwo uldno tpl
anar evol
uti
oniftheyenjoyas uff
ic
ientquantit
yo fincome
overVp( μ)
R, .No ta
ting me a
nsahighe noug
htaxratetoavo i
dar evol
utio
n.Thus ,apo o
r
cit
izeng et
sprivat
ea ndpubli
credi
str
ibuti
onunderad ic
tat
orshipwiththev aluefuncti
on
Vp(yp| N＝ ).

（３）

Thef ir
s ttermo nt her ights i
deine q
ua t
io n( ３)s uggestsincomea f
terta x;thes econd
termr epresentsar e di
stributio
npa rt
.C()i st hec os
to fg overnment.Polit
icianswo uld
decideo n at axr a
tet o ma ximizet heiro wn v alue functi
ons.I nthe o ri
g i
nalmo del,
Ace mo glua ndRo bins ons howt hev al
uef unctio no ft her i
ch,a shavi
ngt hes amef orma s
thato fpo l
it
icians.Ho we ve r
,the rearenos pecifice xpressio
nso fthec os
to fg overnme ntas
we l
la st het axr ate.I nt hisa rt
icl
e,thes pecifict axf or
mul aandt heco s
tf uncti
o no fthe
gove rnme nta r
ewr itte
nt oa voidar evolutio
nc a
t as
trophewhe rethev al
uef unctiono fthe
ric
hi s no tt akeni ntoa ccount.Thi s ma nipula ti
oni sind i
spensab
lef orr esolving the
comput e rsimulati
o n.
Theg overnme ntc osti sat wic
ec ontinuo uslyd iffe
rentiab
lefuncti
ono ft ax.Ac emog l
u
andRo b i
nso n(２００６)a ssumet hatt herea renoc o
st swhe nt hereisnot a
x ati
on.I nt hi
s
game ,a uthorit
arianle aderst r
yt oa bortar evo lutiona tt
emptus i
ngtaxati
on.The yca l
cul
a t
e
revolution prob a
bil
ityf rom t hes i
zeo fμ,s ot hatb otht hec ostfuncti
ona ndt het a
x
f
o rmul aa r
es pe c
ifi
e da sfo l
lows:

（４）

Thepa rameterη i sano nnegati

ver ealnumb er
,notg re
atertha no ne.Thistypeo f
costfunct
ionisus ual
lyc a
ll
e dCRRA — c onsta
ntr el
ati
ver i
ska v
e r
sion.Wes etη＝－３/ ２
forthenume ri
calanalysi
s.Thepa rameterdi sa ls
od efi
neda snonne g ati
vereal
,givend ＝
５/
６.
Themo delproposestor epresentt hes tr
ategi
eso fthepo ora sad y
namicpr oc
e ss
.
Sucha na pproach wouldg iv
eusas ituati
on whe reapl ayerc hoosesa no pti
ma lgame
amo ngma nys t
rat
egiesint hi
nkingab o
utapr eviousplay
.Itisas o
-ca l
ledDy na
mi cGa me,
７
thatcanb es ol
vedi nthef ormo fMa rko vPe r
fectEq ui
li
bri
a( MPE) . Tochara
cteri
zet he
pures t
rat
e g
yMPEo fthi
sg ame ,σ
^p
,wewr i
teaBe ll
ma nequati
ono ft hev al
uefuncti
ono f

７ Se
eFud
enb
erga
ndTi
rol
e(１９９１)
,cha
ptr１３.
e

６２
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

t
hepo or
.
TheBe l
lmane quati
onisame t
hodfors
olvi
ngas eq
uentialpro
blem.Letβ∈ (０,１)be
adisc
ountf ac
tor.Theut il
it
yo ft
hepooriswr i
tt
enwitht hed i
scounte
dsum ofincome
a
fte
rt axina ninfi
nitesequenc
e.Forma
ll
y,cons
idert
hef o
llowingBe l
lmaneq
uat
ionsfrom
t
heutil
ityfuncti
ono fthepoor:

（５）

（６）

Poora gent scanc hooseo neo ft wopo l

icyo pti
ons— ar evol
utio
no re nduri
ngl i
fe
und ert he dictator
ship. t＝１ me anst hatt he revol
ut i
on ha ppenedb eforet,a nd t＝０
impl i
est heco ntrar
y.ypR i
st hei ncomeo fthepo orafterther ev o
luti
on,usuall
yi dent
icalto
V(p
R,μt).“ I
fr evol
utio
ni sa ttempted,i ta l
wa yss ucceeds,b uta f racti
on μt o fthe
pro ducti
vec apa c
ityo fthee co nomyi sd e
s t
roye dforeveri nt hepr o
cess.”(
Ac emoglua nd
Ro b i
nson２００６,１５２.)Wed ono tha vetot hinka boutthepr oblemo fcol
lect
ivea ct
ioni nthe
game .
Too pti
miz ethe i
ro wnv aluef unct
ion,c i
tizenscho os
ef easibl
epo li
cyo pti
onsa ssuming
abo utb othμ a nd wi t
ht hec onstr
ainedc ond i
ti
ong(t, N
μt).Wec ane asi
lyo bta
int he
spe cif
iedformo fg(・,
・)f romt het a
xf ormula(４) .Ifapo ssibl
ef ract
iono flostincomeμ,
we r elarger,t he poorwo ulda v
o i
dt he c hoiceo fr evoluti
o na nd wo uld we l
come a n
aut hori
tari
anr ulewi t
he noug hr edi
stri
butiont oimprov ethe i
rq ual
ityoflif
e.

2.2Co mputerSimul a t
ion
Wepr oposet oi nv est
igatewhe t
heri ncomei ne qual
itye ffectspo l
iti
cals t
abili
ty.Thi s
examplec omparest woc aseswhe eθL＝０.
r ３５ a ndθH＝０. ６５.Al lthes i
mul a
tionsha ve
commo npa r
ame t
ers etsfol
lowi ngβ＝０. ９,δ＝０. ２a ndy ＝$ ５０００ ( perc apit
aincome ).This
comput at
ionisthenume r
icala nal
ysisofad ynami cpr ogra
mmi ngi nd i
scretet i
me ,d iscr
ete
stat
eMa rkovd eci
s i
o nmo del.The refor
e,t hes trategypr ofil
eo fapl aye riss ubjectt oa
determinist
icstat
et ransit
ionf uncti
o ８
n. Figure１ d isplaysther e s
ultso fthes imulati
o n.The
caseo fane quit
ables o c
ietyθL i se xpressedint heuppe rd i
a g
r ams .Theo t
herc asei .e.
,of
socia
li nequal
it
yθ ,rH
epres
e ntedi nthel owe ro ne s.Thel e f
t-handd i
ag r
amso fFi gure１
indi
catet hatthet hrea tofar e v
oluti
oni nfl
ue ncest hepa yoffo ft hepo o r
.Ther i
g ht-hand
onesi mpl ythatt ax a
tiona nd t he fi
scalpo li
c y preve ntar evolutio
nf r om impa cti
ng a n
authori
taria
ng overnme nt.Thepo oragentsa ttemptt her evoluti
onwi t
hs mallμ i nb oth

８ Thiss t
udy prepar
ed t wo MATLAB pr o
grams, NDPM１.
m a nd NPDM２.
m ( ht
tp:
//
www.e.
yamaga
ta-
u.
ac
.j
p/~o
shir
o/r
epl
ica
tio４.
n htm).They nee
dt he CompEconto
olb
oxd ev
elo
pedby Mario Mi
rand
aa nd Pa
ul
Fac
kler
.SeeMi r
anda ndFackl
e ２００２)
r( ,especi
al
lycha
ptr７.
e

６３
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

Fi
g e１ Re
ur vol
uti
ono
rEnd
uri
ngDi
cta
tor
shi
p

pa rts(a)a nd( c
) .Re volutioni sar a
ree ve nt,ho we ver
,a sitisd eeme dtob ev eryc ostlyfor
as oci
ety.I tisno tr e
a l
istict oa ssumet ha tt hei nco mel ostd ur
ingar evol
utioni so nlya
sma l
lfractiono fthet o ta
l.
Bo thμ*a ndμ* *s howt hatthe r
ei snod i
ff
e r
e nceb et
we ent hev al
ueo fe nduring
dic t
atorshipa ndr e voluti
o no nt hel ef
to fFi g ure１.Wekno wt ha tac ompa ra
tivelye qual
so ciet
ywi llb emo rec apab leo fr e
sist
ingd istur b
anc et hana nune qualonef r
o m μ* ＜μ* *
.
The r evolutionc onstraint d oe
s no tb ind θ μ,c i
ti
zens ne verr is
ei nr evo l
ta nd
aut hori
tarianr eg i
me ss ur vive.μ* i sl ocate da dj
ac entt o θL＝０. ３５ a tpa rt( a).Thi s
sug gestst hatthepr obabilityo far evolutioni slowi nas oci
etywi the qualdist
ri
b ution.On
the o the r hand ,t herei sad ist
anceb e twe en μ* *a nd θH＝０. ６５ a tpa rt( c).The
H
dic t
atorshipwi thθ i sv ul nerabletot het hre ato far evoluti
ona ttemptb ythec iti
zens .In
othe rwo r
d s,thet axatio
npo li
cyha sag re atere f
fecto nt hee nduranceo fad i
c t
a t
o r
ship
und ert hec ir
cums t
a nceθH t hanθL i npa rts( b)a nd( d )
.
As uccessfulr evolutionwi l
lb enefitt hepo orf inancial
lya ndpuni s
ht hepo liti
cale li
te
(ther ich).Thepo orha vea ni ncenti
vet or eb ela ndb ringd ownt hed ic
tator
ialgo vernme nt
tha timpo sess uc hab ruta linequa l
it
y.Thes o l
ut i
onpr oducedb ythisd ynamicmo delo ff
ers
so und a dvicet oa utho ri
t ari
an po li
ti
ca ll ead ers who ,i no rdert oa verta c atas t
rophic
out comea nda l
s or etaint he i
rd i
c t
atorshi
p,mus timpo s elevi
eso nt hericha ndre di
s t
r i
bute
tot hepo or.

2.
3TheExte
ndedMo d
el
The b
asic mo
delo fno
n-d
emo
cra
tic po
lit
icsr
ega
rdso
nlyr
evo
lut
iona
s a me
ans

６４
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

towa rds po l
iti
ca lc ha ng e.Le t us ex t
end t he mo delo fd ictators
hipt ot hink a bout
demo cratizat
ion.Thi se xt
end ed mo delint roduc est he v alue f unc t
ions o ft he r ic
ha nd
involvesac ho i
c et hati sfacedb ypolit
ici
a ns.Thet heo r
ieso ft hed e mo cr
atizationg ame
form apr emiset ha tpo lit
ica
ll eadershavet hei nit
iati
vet od ecidepo l
it
icalliberali
zat i
ona nd
enfranchisepe o plei nf reea ndf airelecti
o n,i nf uture.Na turall
y,t hee lit
eha vea nother
polit
icalo pti
o ni .e.,re pressi
o n.Wha tf act
o rsi nfluencet hed ecisi
o no fpo li
ticia
nsi nt he
demo cratizat
iong ame ?
Acemo glua ndRo binson( ２００６)pr ovideas i
mpl eg amet reeo nd e moc rat
iza t
iono r
repression.Ani mpo rtantfacto rinthisg amei swhe thert her evoluti
ona rythr eatf romt he
poo risc redibl
eo rno t.Ifthet hre
atwe res eriousf orthee lite,d i
ctatorswo ul dc hooset o
repressv iolentmo v eme ntsb eforether evolutio ns ucceeds.Ano the rfeasibl
ea cti
onf ort he
ric
hi st hatl eade rspr o miset oi mpos ele viesa ndc arryo utr edist
ributi
oni nt hene ar
future.Ho we ver,t hispr omisemus tb ecrea di
b lee noug hfo rt hec it
izenst ob ac kd own.
De mocrati
z ationi saf easibleeventwi tht heb i
nd i
ngc ond i
tionVp( D) ＞Vp( R| μ) .The
cond i
ti
o n— V( r
D) ＞V( r
R|μ)i sa l
soo bvious,b ecauset her ic hwi lllosea l
lt he i
rpr ope r
ty
aft
e rt her evolutio nV( r
R| μ) ＝０.Wet akei ntoa ccountt hev a l
uef unc ti
onso ft her i
ch
bec a
useo ftheiri nfluenc eove rpo l
it
icaldecisions .Thev al
uef unc t
iono ft heric hisd ef
ined
und erd emo cracya sfollows:

（７）

Thet axrat
eund e
rd emoc ra
c y Di smo stadvantageousf ort hepo or pb ytheme d
ian
vot
e rtheorem.Theme di
anv oter,ac i
tiz
enb elongi
ngt ot hepo o rbecauseo １－δ＞１/
f ２,
wil
lc hoose t oma x i
mizeV( yp|)i neverye l
ecti
on.I nad emoc ra
ticpoli
ty
,ther i
chbear
t
heb urdeno fgovernme nt
alco st
sa swellastransfe
rso finc ome .
Letusno wa ttemptt oex pandt hemo delintoamo r
er e
a l
is
ticwo rl
d.As ociet
yhasa
si
mpl ee c
onomics truct
urewi tht hea ggreg
atepr oduct
ionf uncti
o n,Y＝F ( K,L,N) .Y is
t
hea g g
regateoutput,usual
lyna tionali
ncome ;K ist heca pitalstock,Li stheland,andN
i
st hel ab
orf o
rcea sapr od
uc ti
onf act
or.Thisa ggregat
ef uncti
onc anb especif
iedinthe
Cobb-Douglasfor
m:

（８）

Thenot
ati
o nσ ist heproducti
vee ff
ici
encyofthel a
ndr el
ati
vetot hecapit
alst
ock,
σ ＞０.Ac emog l
uandRo bi
nsonre gar
dt heincomed is
tri
buti
onr at
eo flaboras１－ θ ,
０＜ θ ＜１.Thel abo
rf o
rce,N isde e
me dt obewa g
ee arners
.The yareid
e nt
if
iedwit
ht he
poor
,１－δ pa rtoftheciti
zenswithoutthec a
pit
alsto
cka ndland.
Thennat
ionali
ncomeYd ivi
dedb yt ot
alpopul
ati
ong i
vesa v
erageincomey.No w,we
ca
nr ewri
tei
t:

（９）

６５
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

From e
qua
tio
ns(１) ７)
,( ,a ９)
nd ( ,we cande
riv
e ane
wex
pre
ssi
onf
ort
he v
alue
f
unc
tio
no ft
heeli
teund
erdemo
cra
cyasfo
llo
ws:

（１０）

I
nt he fol
lowing se
cti
on,we d ea
lwi tht he val
ue func
tio
no ft he e li
te under
aut
horit
aria
nr egi
me s.Thedict
atorisabl
et orepressci
ti
zenswhos upportd emo c
rat
izat
ion
orrevoluti
on.Ho we v
er,i
tisne c
e s
sarytoa l
lowf o
rac ostwhenus ingre pressi
onpo l
ic
y.
Thec os
to frepress
ionisdeduct
edf r
omt hepayoff
so fbot
hthepoora ndther ich.Inother
words,thec i
ti
zensha vet
ob ea
rt hecostofrepre
ssion, .Theexpressi
ono fthi
ss i
tuat
ion
i
s:

（１１）

Thel et
t e
rO d enotes“ oppression”and r ef
erst ot hefra
cti
ono fincomed estr
oy e
d
byrepression.Ther i
cho wnt hec api
talstocko rthel and— o rb ot
ht oe arnthe i
ri ncome
i
nt hewo rldwi t
has impl eeco nomics t
ructure.Itise asyt oi
ma gi
net hatthec apit
als t
o c
k
i
smo refragil
ewhe ns ub j
ect
e dt or e
pressiona ndc onf
lic
tt ha
nt heland .Capita
li saf lui
d
ass
e t
.The r
e f
ore war,t urmoil,a nd poli
tica
lv i
ole
nc ei nduc
ec a
pita
le xodus.We ha ve
ass
ume dt hat K L.

Iti
sne c es
sary
,att hispoint,toa sse
mb leno ta
tionsa ndsimpli
fy L＝ .The nwec a
n
i
ntroduceapa ra
meter , K＝ .Thi sleadsust oe x
pre s
sthev al
uef uncti
o no fther ic
h
underd i
ctat
o r
shipwithr epre
ss io
n.Fr omt hee quati
ons(１) ９)
,( ,and(１１):

（１２）

The deri
vede quati
o １０)a
ns ( １２)pr
nd ( o
v i
des ome re
sultso fa computati
ono f
democra
tiz
ati
on.Theys ho wthef a
cto
rsthatinf
luenc
et hedecis
ionso fthepoli
ti
caleli
te
underad i
cta
tors
hiptoe nfr
anchi
sethecit
ize
nsa ndgivethe
m po l
it
icalri
ght
s,other
wi s
ea
demonst
rati
ono rs o
c i
almo vementford emocrac
y willbe mobili
zedinvol
ving armies
,
pol
ic
e ,a
nds ecur
it
yfo r
ce s.

2.4Co mputat
ionofth
eEx tende
dMo de
l
Nume ri
calc o
mput at
ion provi
desa ne a
sil
y underst
andab
lev is
uals ol
utio
nt othe
exte
nd edmo del
.Wes e tspeci
fi
cnumb er
so ns o
mepa ramete
rs:δ＝０. ２, p＝０.４５, ＝１.
５,
andσ＝１.θ a nd a r
ev ari
able
swi thar angefro
mz er
ot oone.Thes imulat
ionmode
l
canb ed er
ivedfrome quati
ons(１０)a nd(１２),simpl
if
iedintermso fthecapi
tallandr
ati
o
k＝K/ L.Weg i
veitas peci
fi
cnumb erf o
rs i
mulati
onk＝５.Ther ewr
itt
enformulais:

（１３）

９ MyMATLABpr
ogr
am,ARc
h９.
m(ht
tp:
//
www.
e.y
ama
gat
a-u.
ac.
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p/~o
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ro/
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ati
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,dr
awsFi
g e２a
ur nd３.

６６
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
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ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

Fi
g e２ De
ur moc
rat
iza
tio
norEnd
uri
ngDi
cta
tor
shi
p

Ift he f ormul a( １３) ho l

ds,i t me ans t he e li
te us er epressiont o pr eser vea n
authoritarianr eg i
me .Ot herwise,thee li
t eg i
veupt hes urvi
v a
lo fthe irreg imea ndpr omis e
９
demo crat i
zationt ot hepo or
. Thi spr oposali sac r
e di
blec ommi tme ntt oe nc ouraget he
poort ob eli
ev ei nf uturer edistr
ibution.
Bo t
hFi gure s２ a nd３ d escri
beas olutionf ort hes i
mul at
ionmo de lin(１３) .Fi gure３ i s
at wo -
d i
me nsiona ld ia
g r
a mo fFigur e２.Thel ight-coloreda reae xpres sest hev a l
ueo fthe
ri
chund e rd emo cracy.Thea reawi thd a
r kc oloringi st hev is
ua li
zedv alueo fther ichund er
dict
ator ship.Thel argel i
ght-col
ore da re ai so ve rt hed ar
k-coloreda re ainFi gure２.Thi s
me anst ha tther ichpr eferd emocr ati
zationt od ictatorshipif i shi gher,r egardlesso fθ.
Wi t
ht hel owe rc o sto fr epressi
o n,i nco mei neq ua l
it
ya f
fect
st hes electiono fapo l
it
ical
regime .
Fig ure３ c l
e arl
ys ho wsuss o mei nte r
es ti
ngc ases.Fo re xampl e,thepo l
itic
a le l
it
e s
dependo nθ t od ec i
dewhe thero rno tt og of o rd emo crati
zationwi th a djacentt o０.３５.
Autho rit
a ri
ang ove rnancei sb ett
e rf orther ic
ht ha nd emo cracya tθ wi thar ang eo fa b
o ut
０.
３t o０.５１.Ot he rwise,d emocrati
z ati
oni sb etter.I na ddit
ion,θ i sa l
wa y slarge rtha n０.２
becauseo fθ＞δ a ndδ＝０. ２.
Thi ss olution pr ese ntst wo i mpl i
cationswi t h ab i
nd i
ng c onditi
o nt hatt he c osto f
repressioni sl o w.Fi rst,a nune qua lso ciet
yund erad i
ctat
orshipi ss uscept i
blet opr e
s s
ur e
ford emo crati
za ti
o n.The po orha v ea ni nce ntivet o undermi ne ar egime und erwhi c h
econo micpo lici
e sd ono tresultint her efor
mo fc r
uc i
alineq uali
ty.Ther ic
ha lsoha vea
reasonf o ra l
iena ti
nga ni ncompe t
e ntd ictatorshipi no rd
e rtopla cat
et hea ngryc iti
ze nswho
ares ub j
e ctedt oha rdship.Wi thac red i
b l
ec ommi t me nttor edistri
bute ,thec iti
z ensha vea
tendenc yt oc ho osed emo cr
ati
zati
o ni nas o ci
et ywi thas everee c o
no mi cd ivi
de.
Se co nd,iti smo rei mpo rt
antt ha td i
ctatorsha v eapo l
icyo pti
o nf ort heiro wnr egime

６７
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

Fi
g e３ De
ur moc
rat
iza
tio
norEnd
uri
ngDi
cta
tor
shi
p

survival.Thiso pti
oni stoi ncreasepub l
ice xpendi
turetomi nimi
zei ncomei nequalit
y.If
the
ys ucc e
e d
edi nc ontrol
ingθ,t helif
eo fther eg
imewo ul
db eprol
onged.
The s eimpl ic
ati
o nsfromt hes i
mulati
on provideahy pot
hesi
sforpo lit
icalsc i
entis
ts
whos tud yther obustnes
so fauthorit
ari
anr egimes,fore xamplepolit
icsint heMi d d
le
１０
East. Thehy po t
hesisist ha
ts ociet
ieswithle s
sine q
uali
tyd onotsufferfro
m at hreatof
１１
regi
mec hange. Ho wever,wes ho ul
dno tewhe therthec ostofrepr
es s
ionisl owe nough
toe nd ure ad icta
torshi
p.I tf o
llows that,int hiss ect
ion,computers imulati
ons ha ve
produc edthea bo vehy po
the s
is.Le tusstartthee mpiri
calanal
ysi
sinthene xtsection.

３.Empi
ric
alAnal
ysi
s

3.1Resear
chPr o
cedure
Wee mploycross-sec
tio
na ndtime-se
rie
spa neldataa nal
ysi
s.Thes ampleincl
ud s１３６
e
count
rie
sf orthepe ri
od１９７０- １９９９.Thed ataf i
tsther e
quir
eme nt
sf ort hevolumeo f
inf
ormati
onforthenumb ero fc o
untri
esa swellast i
me-se r
iesperi
od.Wed e si
gnthed at
a-
１２
setforthepurposeo fcontai
ninga sma nydevelopi
ngc ountri
esa sposs
ibl
e.
Ourr es
earcha i
mi st ome asur
et hee f
fec
to fi
ncomei ne
quali
tyo nde mocr
atiza
tio
n.

１０ WorldBank(１９９５),Pa g
e(１９９８),Ad a
msa ndPage( ２００３)d i
scussincomed is
tri
buti
ono ft
hec o
untri
esinthe
Middl
eEa standNo rthAfri
c a
.
１１ AcemogluandRo binsonc o
mme ntonani nv
ertedU- shapedr e
lat
ionshi
pb etweend e
mo c
rac
ya ndinequa
lit
y
beca
usene wd emocracywo ul
dno tcons
oli
dat
ei t
selfwithoutequali
zingthesocie
ty.However
,wer egar
do nl
y
democra
tiz
ati
onpr oces
si nthemo delbythelacko fexperi
enceo fde mo
c r
acyintheMi dd
leEast.
１２ Thed a
ta-s
etisa v
aila
bleatht t
p:/
/www.e
.yamaga
ta-u.ac.
j
p/~os
hiro/
repli
cat
io４.
n htm.

６８
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

Weus et hee stima tedho us eho l

di nc omei nequa lityd atapr oduce db yt heUni v e
r si
tyo f
Tex asI ne qua l
ity Pr ojec t( UTI P).The ma jori nd exo fi nc ome i ne qualityi st he Gi ni
coeffici
e nt,whi chi sc alcula t
e dus i
ngas ur veyr es ear c
ho npe rsona li ncomei nac ountry.
Ho we ve r,g o ve rnme ntso fd e veloping c ount ri
esd o no tha veb ud getso ri nc entivesf or
carry i
ngo uti nc omes urv ey se veryy ear.The rei sa lsoad i
ff
e renc ei nt heme t
ho dso f
aggre gationb e twe enc ount ries .Inc e rt
a i
nc ountr i
e s ,theGi nii nd exi sc alcula tedno tb ase d
on pe rso nali nco me b uto nf amilye xpe nd i
ture .Thi s pr event s us f r
o m c ollect
ing a
compa rablei nt erna tionald atase tofi nc omed ist
rib ut i
o n.
The UTI Pd a tai sd esigne dt o me as ureg lob alpa yi ne quali
ty— t he pr ojectpa ys
att
e ntiont oc ro ss-nationa lc o mpa riso n.J ame sGa lb rait
h,t hepr o j
ec tle ader,ha sd ecidet o
applyThe i
l’sT s t atisti
c sf romi nc omed atao nq uint i
les har est oc ond uctme asureme nt s
acros ss e ctorswi thine a chc ount ry
.UTI Ps t
aff
sc o llatest hed ataf romi nd us trialst a
tistics
ofUNI DO c o vering３, ２００ c ountr y-yea ro bse rv ations.We a do pt t he UTI P d atai n
accor danc e wi tht he f ollowi ng c riteria:a s carc ityo fmi ssi
ng v al
ue sa nd a uni que
identifi
ca tion.
Weus et heCi vilLi b ertiesd atac o mpi l
edb yt heFr ee dom Ho us ea st hei nd exo f
repre ssi
o nc ost;κ i sa no ppo tunityc ostno tme as ur abled ire ctly
.Ho we v er
,t hec it
izenma y
bes ubjec t
e dt os ur veillanceo ri nte rrog at
ionb ys ecur i
ty uni tso fa na ut horitari
an
gove rnme nta tl owr e pres sionc ost.Suc hs ocietyl a cksa nys enseo fhuma nr i
g htsa swe l
l
ast hepr o tectio no fi nd i
v i
d ua lrightsf rom pub li
ca utho ri
ty.Thel owe rt her e pres si
o nc ost,
thewi de ri st hed egre eo f
fre edo mo fre pre ssi
veme asur esund erad ictat
o rs hip.Thehi gh
CivilLi b e rt
iesi nd exme anst hatt he r
ei snof re e domo fa ssemb l
y,d emo ns t
r ati
on,o pe n
publicd is cuss i
o n,o rpo lit
ica lo rc i
v i
co rga nizati
o n.I ta l
s ome a nst hatt he rei snopr o t
e ct
io n
from po liticalt e r
ro r,unj ustifiedi mpr isonme nt,e xile,t or t
ur e,o rab reacho fpr ope rt
yr i
ght s
byg over nme nto f
ficials.
Thed epe nd entv ar i
ab lei st hec o mpe t
iti
ve ne s so fpo l
iticalpa r ti
c i
patio n PARCOMP ,
prod ucedb yt hePo li
tyI Vpr oject.Ther eas onf ore mpl oyingPARCOMPi st hatAc emo g lu
andRo b inso n(２００６)s etac ompe ti
tiv ee lect i
onf o rt axpo licya ndr e distri
but io na tt hec o re
oft he ird e mo c ra
t i
c po liti
c s mo de l.The yr egard no n-de mo crati
c po li
ti
c sa sr estri
cte d
compe ti
tio nf ort ax ationa tt hes t
o cha sti
cr i
s ko far evolutio n.I tisd eeme da ppro pri
a t
et ha t
wet reatd emo cratizationa sa no rde re dc ateg or
ic alv ari
a bl
e .
Ma rs halla ndJ agg ers( ２００２)d e fi
nePARCOMPi sme a suredo naf i
ve -c at
e go r
ys cale.
Thel ea stc ompe ti
t i
v ec ateg oryi s“ repr ess ed”whi chc ont ainst otali
tar i
anpa rtys y stems ,
autho ri
ta rianmi l
itaryd ictat orships,a ndd espoticmo narchi es .The“ suppr e s sed”c atego ry
permi tss ome o rg anize d po li
ticalpa rt
icipa t
iono utsidet he g ove rnme nt .The r e gi
me
prohi bi
tss o meki nd so fpo li
ticalo r ganiz at
io no ra ction,a ndf reque ntlyha ra ssespo li
tical
oppo sit
io ns.I nt he“ factiona l”c ateg o ry,pa rochialo re thnic- basedf a cti
o nsc a nc ompe tef or
polit
ic a
li nflue nc et oe nc oura ges pe cificis sue sfo rt he iro wni nterests.
The“ co mpe ti
tiv e”c ateg oryd e notesf reepo l
iticalpa rtic i
pationi nad e mo c ra
c y
.The
regimei ns tit
ut iona l
ize de le cti
o nsa st hef orma lc ha nne lt oi nf l
ue ncepo lit
icsa tt hena ti
o nal
level.Po li
ticalpa rtieso rg ro upsa reno tb asical
lyr e strict
e do re xcl
ud e dfro m pa rtici
pa t
io n
int hee le cti
o ns .Ad diti
o nally,t herei st heThe“ trans it
iona l”s ta
teb e twee nt hef acti
o nal

６９
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

andc ompe ti
tivei nPARCOMP .
Thistypeo fdepend e
ntv a
riabl
ei .
e.,o rdere
dc atego ri
calscale
,r equi
reso rderedcho i
ce
mo delso fpa neld a
taa nal
ysis.Thea cceptancei sther a ndome ff
ectsmo de
lo ftheo rdered
probitb ec
a use o ur c omput ati
o n resul t
s d escri
be t hatd emocrati
c t ransi
tio
n, no t
conso l
ida
tion,ha sal inerr ela
tionshi
pwi t
hi nequal
it
y .Wer ej
ecto therme tho dsfort he
fol
lowingr eas ons:assumptionso fe achc ountrywi t
hi nhe rentheterogeneit
ya ndd ynamism
exclude po o li
ng e st
ima t
ions. Ho we ver, pane ld at
aa naly
sis wi t
h t he la r
ge-N c ase
encountersd if
fi
cult
ywi t
he s t
imationint hefixede f
fec tsmo del,whe nitl os
esd egr
ee sof
fr
eed om.
Wes etupi ncomei neq ual
itya ndre pressi
onc osta stwoi ndependentv aria
blesint he
ordered pro bitmo del.Co nt r
olv a
riabl
esa rel ogtra ns f
ormedg r
o s
sd omestic products
,
econo micg rowthr a
te,r eligi
ous f r
acti
o nali
zati
on,e t hnicf r
acti
onaliza
tion,a nd dummy
vari
a bl
eo fd e v
e l
opedc ountrie
s.Thes ampl eis１３６ c ount ri
eswi t
ht hi
r t
y-yearpe r
iods.

3.2Emp iricalRe sult

s
Table１ r eportst he r esulto fb ot
ht he po o l
ing e stima t
iona nd t he r andom e ff
e cts
mo de loft heo rd eredpr obita na l
y si
s .Wec ano b servef ro mt hec hi-squa re
dt estthatt his
empi ricalmo deli ss i
gnific
ant .Ac oupl eo find e pe ndentv ariabl
e ssuc ha sinco mei nequality
andc ivi
lliberty,area lsos ignifi
c ant１３
. Thel efts ideo fTa ble１ i.e.,t hepo ol
inge s t
imation,
prese ntsthene gativer el
ationshipb e t
we eni ne q ua l
it
ya ndpo l
itic
all iberaliz
ation.Ther esult
isco ntraryt ot hehy po t
hes i
sd educ edf romt hemo del.Thes i
gnso fb ot
hc oeff
ici
entso n
ther ights i
dea reina ccor
d ancewi tht heAc e mo glua ndRo b i
ns onmo d el.Ther e sul
to ft he
rando me f
fectsmo dels ati
sfiestheo utputso fthenume ricals i
mul ation.
The i mpa cto fr epressionc osti sc o nsid erablys t rong i n Ta b l
e１.Thi si st ob e
expe ctedf romt heAc emo glua ndRo bi
nso nmo dela swe llasf r
o m hi s t
ori
c alkno wled ge
about d emo crati
zation. We a rei nt erestedi n t he e ffecto fi ne quali
tyo n po li
tic a
l
li
bera li
zati
onund ert hec ont r
o lo fre pressi
o nc os t,ina cco rdancewi tht he or
eticalinfer
enc e
.
Thes tati
stic
a lresults uppo rt
st hehy pothesisf ro mt hes imul ationinSe cti
on２.４.
Itisno te asyt oi nterprett hec oe f
fi
ciento fi nco mei nequa l
ityo nt her i
ghti nTa ble１.
Ana dditi
onalc alculati
o nwi llfacili
tatet hei nt er pretatio
no fther es ult.Thema rginaleffect
oft he v aria
b l
es howsa ni ntuitive und ers tand ing o ft he i mpa cto ft he income g apo n
poli
ticalr egi
me s.J udgingf romt hec ross-t
ab ulatio no fpre d i
ctionsinTa ble２,t hemo delf i
ts
as eto fo bservations.
Table３ r e
po rtst hema rgina le ff
e c
tso fi nc omei neq ua l
it
y.Butwemus ttak eitint o
consid er
a t
iont ha tt he Gi nii nd exi st rans forme di nt he e stima ti
o ns.We a s s
ume t hat
inequa l
ityb ecamewo rse,i ncreas i
ngf romf orty -fi
vet of ift
y -
fi
v epo i
nt so ftheGi niind e x.
This d eteri
o rati
on, c eteri
s pa ribus ,d ecr eas es t he pr obabil
ity o f“ repressed” o r
“suppr essed”c o mpe ti
tiona ndi nc rea sesthepr o babili
tyo f“ compe titive”pa rti
cipationina
demo cra
c y
.Thema rginale ffecto fine quali
t yha st hef o llowingi nf l
ue nc eo nt hepo li
tic a
l

１３ Theq ua
nti
tat
ivemo
del
sad
aptt
hef
ormul
afo
rinc
omei
neq
ual
it
yinRe
uve
nya ２００３)
ndLi
( :lo
g[Gi
ni１００-
/
(
Gini
)]
.

７０
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

Ta
ble１ TheEf
fec
tso
fIne
qua
li
tya
ndRe
pre
ssi
ono
nPo
lit
ica
lLi
ber
ali
zat
ion

Pooli
nge
sti
mat
ati
on Rando
m Ef
fec
ts
Va
riab
les Coef
fic
ient S.E. Coeff
ici
ent S.
E.
Gi
ni(l
og) －０.
４４３* * ０.１０６ ０.
３５１** ０.
１０４
GDP(log) ０.
２１９* * ０.０４１ １.
１３４** ０.
０５８
Growth －０.
００３ ０.００５ －０.００６ ０.
００６
Ci
vilLiberty －０.
９６４* * ０.０２４ －１.０２５** ０.
０１９
Rel
igi
ousFr acti
on －０.
１９８ ０.１３１ ０.
１５７ ０.
２８３
Et
hnoli
ng uis
ticFrac
tio
n ０.
５４８* * ０.１１４ ０.
７６０** ０.
２１５
OECD d ummy １.
３２５* * ０.１１８ １.
２５２** ０.
１９０
μ１ １.
０６４* * ０.０４０ １.
２９１** ０.
０２７
μ２ ２.
１２７* * ０.０４５ ２.
５５５** ０.
０３６
μ３ ３.
４３１* * ０.０６４ ４.
５４４** ０.
０５８
N ２１２５ ２１２５
LogLikelihoodFuncti
on －１７２９.
５２４ －１５０７.
１６６
*p<０.
* ０１;* p<０.０５.

Ta
ble２ Fr
eque
nci
eso
fac
tua
landpr
edi
cte
dout
come
s

Pr
edi
cte
d
Ac
tual ０ １ ２ ３ ４ Tot
al
０ ２９４ １２８ ４０ ２２ １ ４８５
１ ８７ １３７ ６３ ５０ ０ ３３７
２ １９ ６０ ９５ １２３ １５ ３１２
３ ４ ２２ ５０ １８２ ６４ ３２２
４ ０ ０ ５ ６７ ５９７ ６６９
Tota
l ４０４ ３４７ ２５３ ４４４ ６７７ ２,
１２５

Ta
ble３ Ma
rgi
nalEf
fec
tso
fIne
qua
li
ty

Repr
essed Suppress
ed Fa
cti
ona
l Tr
ans i
ti
ona
l Co
mpe t
it
ive
Gi
ni(
log
) －０.
０１４６ －０.０３３４ －０.
０３４８ ０.０２１５ ０.０５６４

competi
ti
on: the probabi
li
tyo f“repr
essed
”i s predi
ctedtod e
creaseb y ０.
５８ and
“suppr
essed”b y１.３３ per
cent
.“ Fa
cti
onal
”c ompe
titi
ona l
sofal
lsby１.３９,however
,the
“tra
nsi
tio
na l
”cate
go r
yi sexpe
ctedtoincr
easeby０.８６ and“c
ompet
iti
ve”part
ici
pat
ionby
２.
２５ percent
.

４.Discussion
Thi
sr esear
ch undertakesat heoret
icaland q uanti
tat
ive anal
ysiso fe nduri
ng
aut
horit
arianr e
gimesint he de
v e
loping count
ri
es.The nume r
ica
ls imul
ati
ono fthe
Acemoglua ndRo bi
nsonmo d
eldescrib
e sac ausa
lrelati
onshipb et
weenna t
ionalincome
shar
inga ndpo l
it
ica
lregimes,ande xhi
b i
tsthev i
sual
iz
a t
ionso fthee c
onomicimpa cton
reg
imet ransf
ormati
ons(Fig
ures１-３).Ther andome f
fec
t sorderedprobi
tanal
ysiswiththe

７１
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

paneld atapr o vi
de se vidences uppo rtingt hehy po thesisf romt hes i
mul a ti
on( Tab e１)
l .Thi s
resultma k esame a ni
ng fulc ontr i
b utiont oe mpi rica ld emo cr atizati
ons tud iesb e causeo fno n-
adherenc et oapo s i
tiver e l
ati
o ns hipb e twe eni ne q uali
tya ndd e mocracya mo ngq ua ntitati
v e
researches .
The a utho rso fEc o nomi cOr iginso fDi c tato r
shipa nd De mo cra cyr e ma rkt ha ta n
１４
empir i
cali nv estiga ti
o ni sa na re af orf ut urer e search. Thi ss tud yi sa ne mpi r
ical
quantit
a ti
vea na l
y sisund ert he f ra me wo rko ft he Ac emo gl
ua nd Ro bins on mo de l
.We
emplo yno tthepo oli
nge st
ima t i
onb utt her and o me ff
e ctsmo delb eca useo fapr opo siti
o n
thate ac hc o untry ha si tso wn i nhe rencea nd d ynami s m.The r es ul
to ft he po oli
ng
esti
ma tions ug gest st he r
ei sat end enc yt oa dv anc epo l
itic allibertyinas ma llinc o meg a p
society
.I td oe sno t ,ho we ver,s uppo rtt hel o g i
ct ha t“ redis tri
b uti
onpo licyna rrowst heg a p
betwe ent her i
cha ndt hepo orund e rd e mo cr acy.”Thepo o l
inge stima tionc a nb er e ga r
de d
asaki ndo fc ross -sectiona na l
y siswi t
ha ni nc reasings ampl ei nt hed i
r ectiono ft ime
series.Thi sme tho dc anno tut i
lizet hev olumeo fa ff
lue nti nfor
ma tio nf rom pa ne ld ata.
The r
e f
o re,iti sr e a
s onab l
ea nd pr ope rt oe mpl oyt he r andom e ff
e ctso rde red pr ob i
t
esti
ma tionf ort hea bo ver easo ns .
Le tust hinka b outt hei mpl icat iono ft hes tud y.Ifa utho r
itari
anr e gime sa ret ho ug htt o
bei nas tateo fe q uil
ib r
ium,i ti sus efulf ora ne x planati
o no fd evel
oping -count rypo liticst o
inqui
re wha tme c hanisms d e termi ne a po lit
ic alr egime .Ge d
d e
s( １９９９) pr od uc eso ne
recenti nf
lue ntiala ppr oachf ore qui librium a naly sis .Thiswo rkha sc ommo ni ntere stswi th
usa ndi ns i
stst ha te a chr eg i
met y peha sad iff
e re ntto l
e ra ncet ot rans forma tions ho ck.A
certai
nt ypeo fpo li
ti
c alr egime si sd ur ablet os ho ckb ec aus et hef ollowe rb ene fitsmo re
fro
mt hes t
rate gyo fs uppo rt
ingt hed i
c tat
o rt ha nf roma ba nd onme nt.
Ho we v er,thisa ppr oa c
hr e ma inswi thinr eg imel eve la rgume ntsa ndo nlyme nt i
ons
thats ome t ypeso fpo l
itiesha v e mo rev italityt hano t he rs.The r
ei sa lso at ec hnical
problemi nc atego rizingg overnme nt sa mo ngt he m:t hea ppr oa cho fGe ddesi sno tf re et o
facethed if
fi
c ultyo fc l
ass i
fi
catio n.
Ift heo rigi
nso ft ransiti
o ns ho cksg ob ac kt oe cono my ,wes ho uldb uildac o he rent
theoryo nt he a ss umpt io no fa ne x plici
tpr inc iplea b outi nd i
vidualb eha v i
orb ehi nd a
poli
ticalc hoice:t heut i
lityma x imi zatio npr i
nc iple .Thi ss tylepa ve st hewa yt ot he ori
z e
compa rati
v ed e mo c ra
t i
zations tudie sf ro mt hepo litica
le co nomi ca ppro ach.Thepr oce sso f
coherentmo delb uildingc ontribut est ot her ichne ssa nda ccumul ati
o no fd e mo cr ati
z ati
o n
theories.The a dv anc eo fs cienc e ,a sr ec og niz edi no the rd is
cipli
ne s ,wi llb es e eni n
compa rati
v epo lit
ic s.I na dditi
o n,t hepo li
ticale co no mica ppr oachi sfreef romt het roub leo f
thepo li
tyc l
as si
fi
c ationpr oblem.

Ac
knowl
edgement

Iwo
uldli
ket
othankMo t
o s
hiSuzuki,Kei
ic
hiTsune
kawa,Kosuk
eKawamura
,Keii
chi
Kub
o,Hi
deta
kaKoba
yashia
tt he２００７ annua
lme e
tingoftheJa
panCompa
rat
ivePo
lit
ics

１４ Ac
emo
glua
ndRo
bins
o ２００６,
n( ３１８)
.

７２
 I
neq
ual
it
yandAut
hor
it
ari
ani
smi
ntheDe
vel
opi
ngCo
unt
ri
es

Ass
oci
ati
on,aswel
lasar eve
iwe
ro ft
heIPE j
our
nalf
orhel
pfulcomme ntso nthi
spa
per
.
Thi
sresear
chwassuppo
rte
db yGra
nt-
in-
Aidf
orSci
ent
if
icRe
se a
rch(１７７３００９４).

Ref
erenc
e

Acemo glu,Da ron,a ndJ ame sA.Ro binson( ２００６) .Econo mi cOr iginso fDicta t
orshipa nd
Demo cra cy.Ca mb ridge:Ca mb r i
dgeUni v ersityPr ess.
Ad a
ms ,Ri chardH. ,a ndJ ohnPa ge(２００３) .“ Po vert
y,Ine q uali
tya ndGr owthi nSe l
e cte
d
Mi ddl
eEa sta ndNo rthAf ricaCo untries,１９８０- ２０００.”Wo rldDe v el
opme nt３１: ２０２７- ４８.
Bo i
x,Ca rles(２００３) .De mo cracya ndRe distr
ibut i
o n.Ca mbridg e:Ca mb ri
dg eUniv e r
s i
tyPr ess.
Bo i
x,Ca rle s,a ndSus anSt okes( ２００３) .“ End og enousDe mo crati
zation.”Wo r
ldPo li
tics５５:
５１７- ４９.
Bo l
len,Ke nne th A. ,a ndRo b er
tW.J ackma n( １９８５) .“ Po l
iticalDe mo cracya ndt heSi ze
Distri
b utiono fInc ome .
”Ame ri
canSo c
iologicalRe vi
ew５０: ４３８-５７.
Feng,Yi ,a ndPa ulK.Za k( １９９９) .“ TheDe termi nantso fDe mo craticTr a
nsit
io ns.”Jo urnal
ofCo nflictRe solution４３: １６２- ７７.
Fudenb erg,Dr ew,a ndJ e anTi rol
e( １９９１) .Ga meTh eo
ry.Ca mb ri
dge :MI TPr ess.
Ga l
brait
h,J ame s( ２００３) .UTI P-UNI DO ag l
ob ald at
as e .Uni
t versityo fTe xa sI nequa l
ity
Project.
Ga s
iorows ki,Ma rkJ .(１９９７) .“ Po li
ti
c alRe gime sa ndI nd us t
rialWa ges :A Cr oss-National
Analys i
s .
”I nMa nusI .Mi d
larskye d.I nequa li
ty,Demo cra cy,andEc o nomicDe vel
op ment.
Camb r i
d ge:Ca mb ri
d geUni ve rsit
yPr ess.
Ge ddes,Ba rbara(１９９９) .“ Wha tDoWeKno wa b outDe mo crati
zationa fterTwe ntyY e ars?”
Annua lRe viewo fPo l
itic
alSc ience２: １１５- ４４.
Hunt i
ngto n,Sa mue l(１９６８) .Po l
i t
icalOr deri n Ch anging So c
ieti
e s.Ne w He aven:Ya le
Univ ersit
yPr e ss.
Ka t
o,Ry o( ２００７) .Le ct
ur eso nMo dernMa c
r oeconomi c
s.To ky o:To yoKe iz a
iShi npo sya.
Linz,JuanJ .(１９７５) .“ Totali
tariana ndAut ho ri
tarianRe gime s .”InFr edI .Gr eens t
e i
na ndN.
W.Po l
sbye d.Ha nd booko fPo li
ticalSc ience:Ma crop ol
iti
calTh eor.Re
y ading,MA:
Ad di
so n-We s l
ey.
Lipset, Se ymo ur M. ( １９５９) .“ Some So ci
a l Re qui
s i
te s o f De mo crac
y : Ec onomi c
De velopme nta ndPo li
ticalLe giti
ma cy.”Ame ri
canPo lit
ic alSc i
enc eRe v
iew５３: ６９-１０５.
Ma rshal
l,Mo nty G. ,a nd Ke i
thJ agge r
s( ２００２) .Po lit
yI V Da taset: Politi
ca lRe g
ime
Ch aracterist
icsa ndTr ansiti
ons ,1800- 2002.Po lit
yI VPr oject,Uni v
er si
tyo fMa ryl
a nd.
Me lt
zer,Al lan H. ,a nd Sc ottF .Ri cha rd( １９８１) .“ A Ra tionalThe or yo ft he Si zeo f
Go vernme nt.”J ourna lofPo l
iticalEc ono my８９: ９１４-２７.
Mi r
and a,Ma r i
oJ .,a nd Pa ulL.Fa ckler( ２００２) .Ap pl
ied Co mp uta t
ionalEc o nomi csa nd
Financ e.Ca mb r
id ge:MI TPr e s
s .
Mul l
e r
,Ed wa rd N.( １９８５) .“ I
nc ome I ne quality
,Re gi
me Re pres si
ve nessa nd Po l
iti
cal
Violenc e.
”Ame ricanSo ci
ologicalRe view５０: ４７- ６１.
Mul l
e r
,Ed wa rdN.( １９８８) .“De mo c r
a cy,Ec ono mi cDe ve l
o pme nt,a ndI ncomeI ne qua l
it
y.”
Ame ricanSo ciologic
a lRe viw５３:
e ５０- ６８.

７３
 Shi
ngoHAMANAKA

Mulle r
,Ed wardN.( １９９５) .“ Econo micDe t
e rmina ntso fDe mo cracy.
”Ame ri
canSo ciologi
cal
Re view６０: ９６６- ８２.
O’
Do nnel,Gui llermo( １９７９) .Mo derni zati
ona ndBur eaucratic-
Aut hor
it
arianism:St ud i
esi n
So uthAme ric
anPo l
it
ic
s .Berkeley :I nst
ituteo fInternationa lStudi
es.
O’
Do nnel,Gui llermo ,Phi li
ppeC.Sc hmi t
ter,a ndLa ur enceWhi t
ehead(１９８６) .Tra nsit
ions
fr o
m Aut horitar
ia nRul e:Co mp arativePe rspectiv
e .Ba
s l
timo re:JohnsHo pkinsUni ver
sity
Pr ess .
Pa
g e,J ohn( １９９８) .“ From Bo o
mt oBus t-a ndBa ck?TheCr i
s i
so fGrowt hint heMi ddle
Ea s ta ndNo rthAf ri
ca.”InNe ma tSha fike d.Pr ospectsf orMi ddl
eEa st
erna ndNo rth
Af ricanEc o nomi cs:From Bo omt oBus ta ndBa ck?Lo nd on:Ma c
mill
anPr e s
s.
Pr
z ewo rski,Ad am( １９９１) .De mo cracya ndt h eMa r ket
:Po l
it
ica landEc o
no micRe formi n
Ea st
ernEur o
pea ndLa tinAme ri
c a.Ca mb ridg e:Ca mb ridgeUni versit
yPr ess.
Pr
z ewo rski,Ad am,Mi chaelE.Al varez ,Jo se Ant o
nio Che ibub,a nd Fe r
nand o Limo ngi
(２０００) .De mo c
ra cya ndDe v
elopme nt:Po liti
ca lIns t
ituti
onsa ndWe l
l-
Beingi nt heWo rl
d,
1950- 1990.Ca mb ridge:Ca mbridg eUni versityPr e ss.
Reuv eny,Ra fael,a nd Qua n Li( ２００３) .“ Ec ono mic Ope nne ss,De mo cr
a c
y,a nd I ncome
I nequa l
ity.
”Co mp arati
vePo li
ti
c alSt udies３６: ５７５-６０１.
Ri
cha rd,Al ana ndJ ohnWa terbury( ２００７) .A Po l
itic
a lEc onomyo ftheMi ddl
eEa stTh ird
Ed i
tion.Bo ul
der :We stview Pre ss.
Sa
ito,Ma ko to(２００６) .Ne wMa croecono mi c
s,2e de di
tion.To kyo :Yuhikaku.
Si
mps on,Mi l
es( １９９０) .“Po l
it
icalRi g htsa ndI ncomeI nequa l
ity:A Cr oss-
Na ti
onalTe s
t.”
Ame ricanSo ci
olog i
calRe vi
ew５５: ６８２- ９３.
Weing ast,Ba rryR.( １９９７) .“ ThePo l
iticalFo und ationso fDe mo cracyandt heRul eo fLa w.”
Ame ricanPo l
iti
ca lScienceRe vi
ew９１: ２４５- ６３.
WorldBa nk( １９９５) .Cl aimingt heFut ur e:Ch oo s
ingPr osperit
yi nt heMi ddleEa standNo rth
Af rica.Wa s hi
ng ton,D. C.:Wo rl
dBa nk.

７４