Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Financial
Statement
Analysis
2
Aims
• Assess the firm’s financial performances: …past,
present and future;
• Evaluate earnings in terms of: size, persistence,
quality and growth;
• Estimate firm’s solvency;
• Identify firm’s financial strengths and
weaknesses (potential risks)
3
Tools
The commonly used tools for financial
statement analysis are:
• Comparative financial statements analysis:
– Horizontal analysis/Trend analysis
– Vertical analysis/Common size analysis/
Component Percentages
• Financial Ratio Analysis
4
Sources of Data
• Insider (definitely the most reliable!)
• Annual reports
– Via company websites, SEC, Public exchange sites,
or Published collections of data: Dun and
Bradstreet , Robert Morris, BVDEP ….
• Google Finance, Yahoo Finance or other
investment sites:
• http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor
• http://www.marketguide.com
• http://www.damodaranonline.com
Essential financial structure
A D
E
A=D+E
One of the few certainties in the unpredictable business world!
The accounting perspective
(historical values)
Investments
(Expense list)
A=D+E
The economic perspective
(market value)
Contractually
defined cash-flows
Enterprise
Value
Residual cash-flows
A=D+E
The corporate governance
perspective
No control
rights
Investment &
Strategy
Decisions
Control rights
A=D+E
Value creation
Debt
Debt
Enterprise market Enterprise book
(market) value book value value
value
Equity Equity
market book
value value
Accounting vs Market
Value creation and value destruction
Value destruction
Value creation
Bankruptcy
Some consideration on real data
Data in USD billions – 2013
Cash &
Asset Debt Equity Mkt Cap EV Eq.
A D Solvency
E Profitability
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Business Essentials
• Profitability is important because it measures
the capacity of the business to generate
revenue (income) in excess of the expenses
incurred in operating that business.
• The solvency of a business is important
because it looks at the ability of the business
in meeting its financial obligations.
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Business Essentials
• Profitability is important because it measures
the capacity of the business to generate
revenue (income) in excess of the expenses
incurred in operating that business.
• The solvency of a business is important
because it looks at the ability of the business
in meeting its financial obligations.
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Financial statements
• Balance Sheet
• Income Statement
• Cash-flow Statement
• Statement of Retained Earnings
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Financial statements
Review: Major Balance Sheet Items
17
Financial statements
Review: Major Income Statement Items
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From Net Income to FCFF
• Free cash flow to the firm is:
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Financial Statement Information
Used primarily by external users
22
Financial Statement Analysis
come up with solutions/recommendations
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Financial statement analysis
Financial Statement Analysis helps business
shareholders and stakeholders to analyse the
data in financial statements, in order to provide
them with better information about such key
factors for decision making and ultimate
business survival.
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Methods of
Financial Statement Analysis
• Horizontal (Trend) Analysis
• Vertical Analysis
• Ratio Analysis
Horizontal/Trend Analysis
Hohestaufen Inc.
Operating Data
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Revenues $ 2.405 $ 2.244 $ 2.112 $ 1.991 $ 1.820
Expenses 2.033 1.966 1.870 1.803 1.701
Net income $ 372 $ 278 $ 242 $ 188 $ 119
Trend Percentages Example
Hohestaufen Inc. provides you with the following operating data
Hohestaufen Inc.
Operating Data
2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Revenues $ 2.405 $ 2.244 $ 2.112 $ 1.991 $ 1.820
Expenses 2.033 1.966 1.870 1.803 1.701
Net income $ 372 $ 278 $ 242 $ 188 $ 119
37
Vertical Analysis Example
Sample Company
Balance Sheet (Assets)
At December 31, 2013 and 2012
% of Total Assets
2013 2012 2013 2012
Cash $ 82.000 $ 30.000 17% 8%
Accts. Rec. 120.000 100.000 25% 26%
Inventory 87.000 82.000 18% 21%
Land 101.000 90.000 21% 23%
Equipment 110.000 100.000 23% 26%
Accum. Depr. (17.000) (15.000) -4% -4%
Total $ 483.000 $ 387.000 100% 100%
Vertical Analysis Example
Sample Company
Balance Sheet (Assets)
At December 31, 2013 and 2012
% of Total Assets
2013 2012 2013 2012
Cash $ 82.000 $ 30.000 17% 8%
Accts. Rec. 120.000 100.000 25% 26%
Inventory 87.000 = 17%
$82,000 ÷ $483,000 82.000
rounded18% 21%
Land 101.000 90.000
$30,000 ÷ $387,000 = 8% rounded 21% 23%
Equipment 110.000 100.000 23% 26%
Accum. Depr. (17.000) (15.000) -4% -4%
Total $ 483.000 $ 387.000 100% 100%
Vertical Analysis Example
Sample Company
Balance Sheet (Assets)
At December 31, 2013 and 2012
% of Total Assets
2013 2012 2013 2012
Acts. Payable $ 76.000 $ 60.000 16% 16%
Wages Payable 33.000 17.000 7% 4%
$76,000
Notes Payable÷ $483,000 = 16% 50.000
50.000 rounded 10% 13%
Common Stock
$60,000 ÷ $387,000 rounded 35%
= 16%160.000
170.000 41%
Retained Earnings 154.000 100.000 32% 26%
Total $ 483.000 $ 387.000 100% 100%
Financial ratio analysis
• Financial ratio analysis involves calculating and
analysing ratios that use data from one, two or
more reports.
• Ratio analysis also expresses relationships
between different financial statements in terms
of:
• Intra-company basis (within the company itself)
• Intercompany basis (between companies)
• Industry Averages (against that particular
industry’s averages)
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Financial ratio analysis
Financial Ratios can be classified into five
main categories:
• Liquidity or Short-Term Solvency ratios
• Financial Structure or Capitalisation Ratios
• Asset Management or Activity Ratios
• Profitability Ratios
• Valuation Ratios
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Liquidity ratios
Short-term funds management
• Working capital management is important as it signals
the firm’s ability to meet short term debt obligations.
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Financial leverage ratios
Long term funds management
• Measures the riskiness of business in terms of
leverage.
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Activity Ratios
• Asset Turnover = Net Sales
Average Total Assets
• Debtors turnover = Net Credit Sales
Average Account Receivables
• Inventory Turnover = Cost of Goods Sold
Average Ending Inventory
Average Collection Period = Average acc. receivable
Avg daily net credit sales*
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Profitability Ratios
Margins
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Profitability Ratios
Returns
• ROCE = Net Profit * 100
Avg Capital Employed
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Profitability ratio
N
L L L
F
T D T D T
P
A A A
- - -
WCA WCL WCA WCA E
E
E L
53
Balance sheet restatement
Working capital
liabilities
Working capital
assets
Equity
NWC
Equity
Balance sheet restatement
LTA FD
60
50
WCL
WCA 40
100 Equity
60
C&E10
LTA NFP
50
50
NWC
60 Equity
60
LTA E E E
B
FD T
WCA I
T F
C&E WCL
Balance sheet / P&L restatement
LTA E E E
B
T
NWC NFP I
T F
Some consideration on real data
Data in USD billions – 2013
NFP -49,0
Equity 85,1
Total Liabilities 36,1
Operating Income 26,5
ROCE = 26,5/36,5 = 72,6%
Market Efficiency and the Role of
Financial Statement Analysis
Implications of stock market efficiency:
• Many profit-maximizing, actively competing traders
• Information almost freely available to all participants
• Competition means that the full effects of new
information
• Stock prices rapidly adjust to new information such
that the new price promises only a normal rate of
return to an investor
• If markets are efficient, then what’s the use of
“Fundamental Analysis” and Valuation?
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Market Efficiency and the Role of
Financial Statement Analysis
Conflicting evidence on market efficiency
– Markets are Efficient:
Market’s reaction to news events is instantaneous.
Mutual funds have on average been unable to outperform
broad indexes; in fact, generally under-performed.
Why publish “secrets” instead of making money yourself?.
– Markets are Inefficient:
Growing evidence of “easy ways” to beat market.
Greater acceptance of “Behavioral Explanations” for stock
market fluctuations.
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Market Efficiency: Considerations
• Do not be dogmatic about efficiency.
– Let the evidence accumulate and speak for itself.
– Then you can decide.
• On the other hand, financial (stock) markets are very
competitive.
– It is not easy to make money above the expected rate for
return for a given level of (beta) risk.
– Trading strategies are not free of risk (Long Term Capital).
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable 261.6 288.8
Income tax 60.2 76.0
321.8 364.8 113
Non-current liabilities
Loan 200.0 60.0 30
Shareholders Funds
Paid-up ordinary capital 300.0 334.1
Retained profit 198.3 302.5
498.3 636.6 128
Total liabilities & equity 1,020.1 1,061.4 104 67
Financial statement analysis
2005 2006 Horizontal
Analysis
$000 $000 $000 $000
Sales 2,240.8 2,681.2 120
Less Cost of goods sold 1,745.4 2,072.0 119
Gross profit 495.4 609.2 123
Wages & salaries 185.8 275.6
Rates 12.2 12.4
Heat & light 8.4 13.6
Insurance 4.6 7.0
Interest expense 24.0 6.2
Postage & telephone 9.0 16.4
Depreciation -
Buildings 5.0 5.0
Fixtures & fittings 27.0 276.0 32.8 369.0 134
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Financial statement analysis
2005 2006
$000 $000 $000 $000
Cash flow from operations
Receipts from customers 2,281 2,711.8
Payments to suppliers & employees (2,050) (2,460.4)
Interest paid (24) (6.2)
Tax paid (46.4) (60.2)
Net cash flow from operating activities 160.6 185
Investing activities
Purchase of non-current assets (121.2) (31.4)
Net cash used in investing activities (121.2) (31.4)
Financing activities
Dividends paid (32.0) (40.2)
Issue of ordinary shares 20.0 34.1
Repayment of loan capital -__ (140.0)
Net cash outflow from financing activities (12) (146.1)
Increase in cash & cash equivalents 27.4 7.5
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Additional information
• Credit purchases for the year 2006 were €2,142,800.
• General prospects for the major industries in which Walker is
involved look good with a forecast glut of oil set to reduce the
cost of production and world demand for plastic remaining
strong.
Benchmarks:
• There are no exact benchmarks for Walker Ltd because it is a
diversified company. The following are average indicators that
relate to the plastic retailing and manufacturing industries for
the year 2006.
– Gross profit margin 25%
– Net profit margin 7%
– Inventory turnover 6 times
– Debt/equity ratio 0.6 : 1
– Return on Assets 12%
– Return on Equity 20%
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Relevant ratios: profitability
Important note: The calculations of the ratios in this illustration did not use “averages” for total assets, equity and
inventory. The 2005 and 2006 year end figures were used and this is a slight variation to the formulas provided.
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Relevant ratios: solvency
Liquidity Benchmarks 2005 2006
ratios:
Current Ratio Ideal standard 1.78:1 1.70:1
2:1
Acceptable
standard
1:1
Quick Ratio Ideal standard 0.85:1 0.69:1
2:1
Acceptable
standard
1:1
Days Payable Standard Credit 49.19 days
30 days purchases not
available
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Relevant ratios: solvency
Financial Benchmarks 2005 2006
Structure
ratios:
Debt/Equity Industry 1.05: 1 0.67:1
0.6:1
Standard
benchmark
1:1
TIE Standard 10.14 times 39.74 times
benchmark:
Between 3 and 5.
Below 3 risky.
Above 5 very
favourable
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The DuPont System
2005 2006
SALES 2.240,80 2.681,20
EBIT 243,40 246,40
NET INC. 159,20 164,20
TOT. ASSETS 1.020,10 1.061,40
ROA 0,16 0,15
ROA * 0,24 0,23
ROS 0,11 0,09
AT 2,20 2,53
ROS * AT 0,24 0,23
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Report
• For the investor considering the purchase of shares in the
company, the return they will earn is the key financial factor
but an overall evaluation of the company’s performance and
position is also important to get a better picture of how well
the company is actually doing.
• ROE in 2006 is 26%. Whether or not this is attractive depends
on the perceived riskiness of this investment and other
alternatives available but this return is certainly more
attractive than current bank interest rates.
• ROE has decreased by 4% but the company’s ROE at 26% is
still better than the industry average of 20%
• Riskiness of business is being reduced by the significant
repayment of loan in 2006.
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• Profitability
– The NP% and ROA ratios show a small downward trend in
% over the 2 year period. ROE% ratio show a more
significant decrease but is still better than the industry
average.
– Gross Profit Margin is slightly unfavourable at about 2.3%
below the industry benchmark of 25%.
– The horizontal analysis information show that Sales have
increased by 20%. However operating costs have increased
by 34%.
• Asset Management
– IT has gone down slightly from 5.8 to 5.58 times.
– IT is still close to the industry benchmark of 6 times.
– AT has increased showing more sales being generated from
asset usage
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• Liquidity
– Current ratios of 1.78:1 (2005) and 1.70: 1 are at above
acceptable levels but below ideal level.
– Quick ratios appear more of a concern being below
acceptable levels in both years and even more so in 2006
(0.69:1).
– Raises some concerns over the liquidity of the business
and inventory management (although IT ratio only shows a
slight decline in 2006).
– Days Payable is a concern as there may be poor debt
payment management.
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• Financial Structure
– Although slightly higher than D/E industry benchmark
(0.67:1), business has become less risky due to the
significant repayment of loan in 2006.
– TIE is extremely good for the business at 39.74 times (well
above 5 the standard benchmark).
Believe it or not…
accounting data
are all but Gospel!
But in many
cases they’re the
best starting point
we have….
Limitations of financial statement analysis
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Limitations of financial statement analysis
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Ratios and Forecasting
• Common stock valuation based on
– Expected cashflows to stockholders
– ROE and r are major determinants of cashflows to
stockholders
• Ratios influence expectations by:
– Showing where firm is now
– Providing context for current performance
• Current information influences expectations by:
– Showing developments that will alter future
performance
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Assignment: Analyst Reports
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