ABC Cement Limited

Period type: Annual & Quarterly

Currency: Pakistan Rupee (PKR) unless stated otherwise
Units: Million (mn) unless stated otherwise
Units FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Pakistan Inflation 11.9% 12.4% 9.2%
Pakistan Growth Rate 0.4% 2.6% 3.6% 3.8%
Income Statement

Revenues
Sales- net 5,000 3,873 5,273 6,487
Cost of Sales (3,667) (3,954) (4,531) (4,900)
Gross Profit 1,333 (81) 742 1,587
-2% 14% 24%
Expenses
Distribution Cost (360) (159) (151) (79)
Administrative Expenses (98) (79) (52) (62)
Other Operating Expenses (278) (1) (16) (58)
EBIT 598 (319) 523 1,388
-68% -8% -9%
Depreciation 380 392 379 367
EBITDA 978 72 902 1,755

Other non-operating income/expense (NOI)

Other Income 28 20 20 20
Finance Costs (451) (393) (358) (328)
Currency Translation Gain(Loss) - (167) (113) (156)
Earnings before Taxes 174 (859) 72 924

Taxes and Other Expenses

Provision for Income Tax (138) 268 49 (323)
Net Income (Loss) 36 (591) 121 602
2% 9%
Supplementary Information

Shares Outstanding mn' 200 223 227 227

EPS 0.18 (2.65) 0.53 2.65
DPS - - - -
Total dividend
Payout

Balance Sheet

Current Assets
Cash and Bank Balance 159 56 150 269
Short-term Investments - - - -
Trade Debtors 37 37 21 28
Other Receivables 19 21 29 26
Taxation (net) 81 77 75 76
Loans and Advances 25 54 59 54
Stock-in-trade 146 132 161 426
Stores, Spare Parts and Loose Tools 506 933 672 1,051
Deposits, Prepayments and Other Receivables 1 - 16 11
Current Portion of Long-term Deposits 46 25 - -
Total Current Assets 1,021 1,334 1,184 1,941

Non Current Assets

Operating Fixed Assets-tangible 9,255 8,938 8,613 8,130
Long-term Loans-secured, Considered Good 8 0 0 -
Intangible Assets - - 1 1
Long-term Deposits 65 53 49 38
Investment Property - - - -
Total Non-Current Assets 9,327 8,991 8,663 8,169

Total Assets 10,348 10,325 9,847 10,111

Current Liabilities
Trade payables 629 904 690 816
Sales Tax Payable 38 22 31 16
Accrued Interest & other expenses 227 343 440 490
Short-term Borrowings 525 671 561 224
Short-term Murabaha - Secured - 399 125 44
Provision for Taxation (net) - - - -
Current Portion of Long-term Liabilities 2,070 2,570 2,558 2,904
Total Current Liabilities 3,489 4,908 4,404 4,493

Non Current Liabilities

Long-term Loans 1,129 466 405 116
Liabilities Against Assets Subject to Finance Lease 215 121 88 44
Long-term Deposits 1 1 2 3
Deferred Liabilities 923 488 424 536
Long-term Creditors 9 2 - -
Total Non-Current Liabilities 2,277 1,078 918 699

Shareholders' Equity
Common Stock - Par Value 1,995 2,228 2,271 2,271
Reserves/(accumulated Loss) 405 (9) 195 865
Surplus on Revaluation of Fixed Assets-net of Tax 2,181 2,121 2,059 1,782
Total Shareholders Equity 4,581 4,339 4,525 4,918

Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 10,348 10,325 9,847 10,111

Difference - - - -

Cash flow statement

CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Net Income (591) 121 602
Add: Depreciation 392 379 367

(Increase)/decrease in WC assets (412) 231 (645)

Increase/(decrease) in WC liabilities 391 (117) 176

(Increase)/decrease in other assets 14 16 18

Increase/(decrease) in other liabilities (458) (56) 99
CFO (665) 574 616

Less: Capex (75) (54) 116

Add:Interest (1-T) 393 358 328
FCFF (347) 878 1,060

Less: Interest (1-T) (393) (358) (328)

Add: Net Borrowing 288 (491) (405)
FCFE (452) 28 328

Dividend - - -
Changes in Equity 348 66 (209)
Changes in Cash flow (103) 94 119

Cash openning 159 56 150

Change in short term investments - - -
Cash closing 56 150 269

Closing position 159 56 150 269

Differnece 0 (0) -

Income Statement Assumptions

Revenue-net 5,000 3,873 5,273 6,487

Production Capacity
Clinker Capacity mn tons 1.995 1.995 1.995 1.995
Cement Capacity mn tons 2.095 2.095 2.095 2.095
Actual Production
Clinker mn tons 1.145 1.163 1.189 1.179
Cement mn tons 1.034 1.267 1.285 1.178

Dispatches
Domestic Market mn tons 0.923 1.082 1.003 0.989
International Market 0.244 0.192 0.275 0.2
Total 1.17 1.27 1.28 1.19

Growth
Domestic Market -1% -4% 1%
International Market 42% 0% 38%
Total 9% 0% -7%

Utilization level 49% 60% 61% 56%

Price PKR/Ton 5,725 4,183 5,432 6,767

Growth -27% 30% 25%

Spread over inflation -39% 17% 15%

Change -2%

COGS
COGS as a % of Revenue -55% -74% -65% -61%
COGS (3,667) (3,954) (4,531) (4,900)
COGS/Ton (3,143) (3,103) (3,546) (4,121)

COGS Break up
Raw Material (189) (207) (225) (263)
Fuel & Power (2,081) (1,915) (2,368) (2,950)
Packaging (276) (306) (352) (360)
Manpower+Overhead (597) (676) (601) (547)

COGS Mix
Raw Material 6% 7% 6% 6%
Fuel & Power 66% 62% 67% 72%
Packaging 9% 10% 10% 9%
Manpower+Overhead 19% 22% 17% 13%

Gross Sales 6,681 5,329 6,942 8,046

Commissions (47) (30) (41) (65)
Sales Tax (772) (637) (858) (999)
Excise Duty (861) (789) (769) (494)
Total Revenues 5,000 3,873 5,273 6,487

Levy rates
Commissions -1% -1% -1% -1%
Sales Tax -12% -12% -12% -12%
Excise Duty -13% -15% -11% -6%

Sales Mix
Local 5,638 4,649 5,974 7,242
Exports 1,042 680 967 804

Sales Mix (%)

Local 84% 87% 86% 90%
Exports 16% 13% 14% 10%

Distribution Cost (360) (159) (151) (79)

Gross Turnover 6,681 5,329 6,942 8,046
Distribution cost as % of gross sales -5.39% -2.98% -2.17% -0.98%

Administrative Expenses (98) (79) (52) (62)

Growth -19.3% -33.6% 18.3%

Other Operating Expenses (278) (1) (16) (58)

Other Operating Expenses - Break up

WPPF 49
WWF -
Others 9

WPPF 5%
WWF

Other Income 28 20 20 20
Short term investment+Long term deposits+investment properties 65 53 49 38
Other Income as % of investments & deposits 43% 34% 40% 46%

Finance Costs (451) (393) (358) (328)

Loans 3,939 4,227 3,735 3,331
Finance Costs as % of loans -10% -9% -9%

Currency Translation Gain(Loss) - (167) (113) (156)

Export sales 1,042 680 967 804
Currency Translation Gain(Loss) as % of exports -25% -12% -19%

Provision for Income Tax (138) 268 49 (323)

EBT 174 (859) 72 924
Provision for Income Tax as % of EBT -79% N/A N/A -35%

Balance Sheet Assumptions

DSO days 3 2 1
DSI days 13 12 22
DPO days 70 63 55

Account Receivable 37 37 21 28
Inventory 146 132 161 426
Account payable 629 904 690 816

Short-term Investments - - - -
Growth

Other Receivables 19 21 29 26
Loans and Advances 25 54 59 54
Growth 114% 10% -8%

Stores, Spare Parts and Loose Tools 506 933 672 1,051
Growth 84% -28% 56%

Operating Fixed Assets - Gross 12,342 12,412 12,461 12,336

Accumulated depreciation (3,087) (3,474) (3,848) (4,205)
Operating Fixed Assets - Net 9,255 8,938 8,613 8,130

Dep charge for the year 380 392 379 367

As a % of gross PP&E 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%

Capex, gross 70 49 (125)

As a % of Gross PP&E 0.6% 0.4% -1.0%

Intangible Assets - - 1 1

Long-term Deposits 65 53 49 38

Investment Property - - - -
Growth

Sales Tax Payable 38 22 31 16

Growth -44% 42% -47%

Accrued Interest & other expenses 227 343 440 490

operating Expenses + finance cost + dividends 1,921 1,627 1,774 1,884
Accrued Interest & other expenses as % of expenses 12% 21% 25% 26%

Provision for Taxation (net) - - - -

Provision for Income Tax
Provision for Taxation as % of income tax

Long term loan 3,199 3,036 2,962 3,019

Long term loan - Mix

Non current portion 1,129 466 405 116
Current Portion of Long-term Liabilities 2,070 2,570 2,558 2,904

Non-current portion
Asian Development Bank
Asian Finance & Investment Corporation
Meezan Bank Limited

Current portion
Asian Development Bank
Asian Finance & Investment Corporation
Meezan Bank Limited
Liabilities Against Assets Subject to Finance Lease
Deferred Liabilities 1,000

Deferred Liabilities 923 488 424 536

Reserves/(accumulated Loss) 405 (9) 195 865

Surplus on Revaluation of Fixed Assets-net of Tax 2,181 2,121 2,059 1,782

Growth -3% -3% -13%
Valuation Assumption

CoE 16.4%
Risk Free rate 9.4%
Beta 1.00
Equity Risk Premium 7.0%

Terminal Growth Rate 5%

Dividend Yield 5.1%

P/E (FY 14) 11.17

P/E (ttm) 8.01
Industry P/E (ttm) 11.23

FCFE valuation
Period
Free cash flows to equity
Terminal Value
DCF

Equity Value 24,823

Value per share 109

DPS (6.00)
FCFE value per share 103
Upside 19%
DDM valuation
Period
DPS
Terminal Value
DCF
DPS based Value per share 110
Upside 26%

Avg price target

Wt. Avg. Value per share 106

Current price 87.0
Upside 22%
Forward Dividend Yield 7.2%
Total Return 29.5%
Recommendation BUY
 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16F FY17F FY18F FY19F
8.0% 6.6% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
3.7% 4.1% 4.3% 4.7% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0%

7,568 8,025 8,426 9,054 9,743 10,396 10,978 6.47%

(5,163) (5,436) (5,260) (5,761) (5,522) (5,873) (6,246)
2,405 2,589 3,166 3,292 4,221 4,524 4,732
32% 32% 37.6% 36% 43% 44% 43%
5.3%
(90) (53) (57) (73) (91) (110) (130)
(62) (64) (71) (75) (78) (82) (86)
(144) (190) (326) (224) (270) (287) (299)
2,109 2,282 2,711 2,921 3,782 4,044 4,216
49% 4% 48%
377 397 341 347 353 360 366
2,486 2,678 3,052 3,268 4,135 4,404 4,582

120 272 809 301 295 309 323

(170) (155) (56) (16) (14) (7) (3)
190 32 37 41 44 47 49
2,248 2,430 3,501 3,246 4,106 4,393 4,586

(713) (661) (1,005) (932) (1,179) (1,261) (1,317)

1,535 1,769 2,496 2,314 2,927 3,131 3,269 13.1%
20% 22% 30% 26% 30% 30% 30%

227 227 227 227 227 227 227

6.76 7.79 10.99 10.19 12.89 13.79 14.39
4.00 4.25 6.25 6.00 7.75 8.25 8.75
909 965 1,420 1,363 1,760 1,874 1,988
59% 55% 57% 60% 60% 60% 60%

1,465 890 289 970 1,482 2,615 3,917

776 1,582 1,788 1,904 1,999 2,099 2,204
50 61 90 81 87 93 98
9 5 0 - - - -
70 - - - - - -
21 16 25 38 38 39 39
315 674 584 689 660 702 747
990 1,033 789 750 1,049 840 756
5 1 3 3 3 3 3
- - - - - - -
3,702 4,262 3,567 4,435 5,319 6,391 7,764

7,795 7,509 7,386 7,260 7,132 7,001 6,869

- - - - - - -
1 0 0 - - - -
 40 39 39 39 39 39 39
65 66 66 66 66 66 66
7,900 7,615 7,491 7,365 7,237 7,107 6,974

11,602 11,877 11,059 11,800 12,556 13,497 14,738

895 967 1,263 1,221 1,170 1,245 1,324

66 33 85 64 48 36 27
255 304 49 48 53 57 60
497 - - - - - -
- - - - - - -
- 227 284 188 120 - -
1,716 1,451 - 231 213 68 65
3,430 2,982 1,680 1,753 1,605 1,405 1,476

787 562 300 143 - - -

- - - - - - -
3 3 2 2 2 2 2
1,213 1,527 1,666 1,592 1,521 1,453 1,389
- - - - - - -
2,003 2,093 1,967 1,736 1,523 1,455 1,390

2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271

2,171 2,863 3,526 4,477 5,644 6,901 8,182
1,727 1,668 1,614 1,563 1,513 1,465 1,418
6,169 6,802 7,411 8,311 9,428 10,637 11,872

11,602 11,877 11,059 11,800 12,556 13,497 14,738

- - - - - - -

1,535 1,769 2,496 2,314 2,927 3,131 3,269

377 397 341 347 353 360 366

155 (409) 304 (57) (277) 162 34

(156) 121 40 (42) (45) 78 83

(10) 80 (5) (13) - (0) (1)

727 508 246 (190) (155) (200) (74)
2,629 2,465 3,423 2,359 2,803 3,530 3,677

(42) (111) (218) (221) (225) (229) (233)

170 155 56 16 14 7 3
2,757 2,509 3,261 2,154 2,592 3,308 3,447

(170) (155) (56) (16) (14) (7) (3)

(331) (987) (1,714) 75 (161) (146) (3)
2,256 1,367 1,491 2,212 2,417 3,155 3,441

(909) (965) (1,420) (1,363) (1,760) (1,874) (1,988)

625 (170) (467) (51) (50) (48) (47)
1,972 231 (395) 798 606 1,233 1,407

269 1,465 890 289 970 1,482 2,615

 (776) (806) (206) (116) (95) (100) (105)
1,465 890 289 970 1,482 2,615 3,917

1,465 890 289 970 1,482 2,615 3,917

- - - - - - -

7,568 8,025 8,357 9,054 9,743 10,396 10,978

1.995 1.995 1.995 1.995 1.995 1.995 1.995

2.095 2.095 2.095 2.095 2.095 2.095 2.095

1.086 1.189
1.232 1.194 1.20 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.45

1.033 1.048
0.201 0.142
1.23 1.19 1.20 1.26 1.32 1.38 1.45 4.1%

8% -15%
-30% 27%
4% -4% 1% 5% 5% 5% 5%

59% 57% 57% 60% 63% 66% 69%

7,438 8,429 8,792 9097 9341 9493 9546

10% 13% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6%
22%
2% 7% -0.2% -1.3% -2.3% -3.4% -4.4%
-13% 5% -7.0% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1% -1.1%

-56% -54% -50% -50% -45% -45% -45%

(5,163) (5,436) (5,260) (5,761) (5,522) (5,873) (6,246)
(4,184) (4,568) (4,384) (4,586) (4,194) (4,248) (4,303)

(276) (350) (366) (375) (384) (394) (403)

(2,667) (3,367) (3,367) (3,333) (2,917) (2,946) (2,975) 22%
(366) (406) (415) (425) (436) (447) (458)
(875) (445) (449) (453) (457) (462) (467)

7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
64% 74% 73% 70% 69% 69%
9% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11%
21% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11%

9,179 10,031 10,550 11,429 12,299 13,124 13,858

(60) (69) (66) (71) (77) (82) (87)
(1,138) (1,518) (1,661) (1,799) (1,936) (2,066) (2,182)
(413) (419) (465) (504) (542) (579) (611)
7,568 8,025 8,357 9,054 9,743 10,396 10,978
 -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
-12% -15% -16% -16% -16% -16% -16%
-5% -4% -4% -4% -4% -4% -4%

8,166 9,330 9,813 10,631 11,440 12,207 12,890

1,012 700 737 798 859 916 967

89% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93% 93%

11% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

(90) (53) (57) (73) (91) (110) (130)

9,179 10,031 10,550 11,429 12,299 13,124 13,858
-0.98% -0.53% -0.54% -0.64% -0.74% -0.84% -0.94%

(62) (64) (71) (75) (78) (82) (86)

0.6% 2.6% 11.5% 4.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

(144) (190) (326) (224) (270) (287) (299)

118 131 173 218 233 243

- 50 51 52 54 55
26 10 - - - -

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

120 272 809 301 295 309 323

881 1,687 1,893 2,009 2,104 2,204 2,309
26% 21% 45% 15% 14% 14% 14%

(170) (155) (56) (16) (14) (7) (3)

3,000 2,013 300 374 213 68 65
-5% -6% -5% -5% -5% -5% -5%

190 32 37 41 44 47 49
1,012 700 737 798 859 916 967
19% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

(713) (661) (1,005) (932) (1,179) (1,261) (1,317)

2,248 2,430 3,501 3,246 4,106 4,393 4,586
-32% -27% -29% -29% -29% -29% -29%

2 2 3 3 3 3 3
26 33 43 43 43 43 43
60 62 76 76 76 76 76

50 61 90 81 87 93 98
315 674 584 689 660 702 747
895 967 1,263 1,221 1,170 1,245 1,324

776 1,582 1,788 1,904 1,999 2,099 2,204

104% 13% 7% 5% 5% 5%

9 5 0 - - - -
 21 16 25 38 38 39 39
-61% -26% 59% 53% 0% 1% 2%

990 1,033 789 750 1,049 840 756

-6% 4% -24% -5% 40% -20% -10%

12,361 12,465 12,682 12,904 13,129 13,358 13,591

(4,566) (4,955) (5,296) (5,644) (5,997) (6,357) (6,722)
7,795 7,509 7,386 7,260 7,132 7,001 6,869

377 397 341 347 353 360 366

3.1% 3.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7%

25 103 218 221 225 229 233

0.2% 0.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

1 0 0 - - - - 0.22

40 39 39 39 39 39 39

65 66 66 66 66 66 66
1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

66 33 85 64 48 36 27
306% -50% 154% -25% -25% -25% -25%

255 304 49 48 53 57 60
2,803 2,965 3,406 3,361 3,735 3,968 4,207
9% 10% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

- 227 284 188 120 - -

(661) (1,005) (932) (1,179) (1,261) (1,317)
-34% -28% -20% -10% 0% 1%

2,503 2,013 300 374 213 68 65

787 562 300 143 - - -

1,716 1,451 - 231 213 68 65

- - -
- - -
787 562 300 143 - - - 157

856 835 - - - - -
321 321 - - - - -
113 112 262 157 143 - -
5 0 - - - - -
420 182 139 74 71 68 65

1,213 1,527 1,666 1,592 1,521 1,453 1,389

-4% -4% -4% -4%

2,171 2,863 3,526 4,477 5,644 6,901 8,182

1,727 1,668 1,614 1,563 1,513 1,465 1,418

-3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3%
 0 1 2 3 4
1,491 2,212 2,417 3,155 3,441
31,692
1,491 1,900 1,784 2,001 19,138

0 1 2 3 4
6.25 6.00 7.75 8.25 8.75
172.43
6.25 5.15 5.72 5.23 98.69
Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14 Q2FY14

1,348 1,504 1,722 1,914 1,619 1,974 1,977 1,999 1,708 1,962
(1,106) (1,121) (1,337) (1,336) (1,210) (1,283) (1,302) (1,367) (1,192) (1,363)
242 383 385 577 408 691 675 632 515 600

(11) (19) (31) (19) (18) (35) (18) (19) (13) (12)
(13) (13) (19) (16) (14) (14) (14) (19) (14) (17)
(2) (17) (21) (18) (20) (39) (76) (9) (18) (33)
216 334 314 524 356 602 567 584 471 537

92 92 92 92 94 94 94 94 99 99
308 426 405 616 451 696 661 678 570 636

1 1 6 13 4 12 55 50 39 42
(94) (88) (89) (57) (53) (40) (30) (44) (42) (37)
(84) (34) 55 (93) (42) 91 90 48 (120) 92
39 214 285 386 265 664 682 638 349 634

(25) (121) (110) (67) (23) (259) (264) (168) (57) (235)
14 93 175 319 242 405 417 470 291 399
0 -

227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227 227
0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.3 1.8

86 143 211 269 330 742 969 1,465 1,229 965

- - - - - 503 512 776 789 1,313
32 71 83 28 21 24 48 50 42 55
28 27 27 26 23 24 19 9 8 1
77 78 78 76 82 77 74 70 65 71
90 66 35 54 31 35 29 21 24 79
177 240 196 426 322 333 383 315 497 418
745 982 1,134 1,051 1,227 1,063 993 990 730 834
- - - 11 13 10 8 5 7 9
10 16 16 - - - - - - -
1,246 1,622 1,779 1,941 2,049 2,811 3,036 3,702 3,393 3,745

8,536 8,447 8,395 8,130 8,089 7,948 7,865 7,795 7,708 7,632
0 0 - - - - - - - -
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
 49 38 38 38 38 40 40 40 40 40
- - - - - 63 63 65 65 65
8,587 8,486 8,433 8,169 8,128 8,051 7,968 7,900 7,813 7,737

9,832 10,108 10,213 10,111 10,177 10,862 11,004 11,602 11,206 11,483

555 691 558 816 737 622 788 895 1,455 672
8 49 47 16 17 20 79 66 48 35
486 495 530 490 519 532 274 255 297 288
555 485 520 224 171 494 922 497 2 617
196 209 231 44 - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - -
2,669 2,746 2,708 2,904 2,882 2,744 1,838 1,716 1,633 1,483
4,468 4,676 4,594 4,493 4,327 4,413 3,900 3,430 3,435 3,095

322 252 183 116 99 82 65 787 675 675

75 57 50 44 37 - - - - -
2 1 1 3 3 4 3 3 3 3
426 490 576 536 551 799 1,053 1,213 1,256 1,474
- - - - - - - - - -
825 800 811 699 690 884 1,121 2,003 1,934 2,152

2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271
222 330 520 865 1,120 1,542 1,974 2,171 1,854 2,265
2,045 2,031 2,016 1,782 1,769 1,752 1,737 1,727 1,711 1,698
4,539 4,632 4,808 4,918 5,160 5,566 5,983 6,169 5,836 6,235

9,832 10,108 10,213 10,111 10,177 10,862 11,004 11,602 11,206 11,483

- - - - - - - - - -
1,348 1,504 1,722 1,914 1,619 1,974 1,977 1,999 1,708 1,962

0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29
0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52
-
0.25 0.28 0.26 0.38 0.20 0.31 0.32 0.26 0.29 0.25
0.28 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.28 0.32 0.31 0.32 0.26 0.29

0.27 0.28 0.30 0.34 0.28 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.26 0.29

53% 52% 57% 63% 53% 62% 60% 61% 51% 55%

6,117 6,830 7,064 6,977 7,143 7,304 7,582 7,688 8,223 8,542
12% 3% -1% 2% 2% 4% 1% 7% 4%

-66% -60% -63% -57% -62% -54% -54% -56% -56% -55%
(1,106) (1,121) (1,337) (1,336) (1,210) (1,283) (1,302) (1,367) (1,192) (1,363)

1,681 1,880 2,135 2,350 1,968 2,370 2,399 2,441 2,130 2,462
(12) (17) (16) (20) (23) (6) (15) (15) (14) (16)
(208) (241) (268) (281) (236) (285) (299) (317) (319) (379)
(112) (119) (129) (134) (89) (105) (109) (110) (89) (104)
1,348 1,504 1,722 1,914 1,619 1,974 1,977 1,999 1,708 1,962
 -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% -1% -1% -1% -1%
-12% -13% -13% -12% -12% -12% -12% -13% -15% -15%
-7% -6% -6% -6% -5% -4% -5% -4% -4% -4%

(11) (19) (31) (19) (18) (35) (18) (19) (13) (12)
1,681 1,880 2,135 2,350 1,968 2,370 2,399 2,441 2,130 2,462
-0.63% -0.99% -1.44% -0.81% -0.92% -1.49% -0.75% -0.76% -0.60% -0.50%

(13) (13) (19) (16) (14) (14) (14) (19) (14) (17)

1 1 6 13 4 12 55 50 39 42
49 38 38 38 38 605 615 881 894 1,418
2.4% 2.1% 14.8% 33.1% 10.1% 3.7% 9.0% 6.6% 4.4% 3.6%

(94) (88) (89) (57) (53) (40) (30) (44) (42) (37)
1,908 3,783 3,720 3,511 3,260 3,255 3,072 2,912 2,655 2,542
-5% -2% -2% -2% -2% -1% -1% -2% -2% -1%

(25) (121) (110) (67) (23) (259) (264) (168) (57) (235)
39 214 285 386 265 664 682 638 349 634
-64% -57% -39% -17% -8% -39% -39% -26% -16% -37%

2 3 4 3 1 1 2 2 2 2
14 17 15 21 28 23 25 23 31 30
45 50 42 46 58 48 49 55 89 70

32 71 83 28 21 24 48 50 42 55
177 240 196 426 322 333 383 315 497 418
555 691 558 816 737 622 788 895 1,455 672

- - - - - 503 512 776 789 1,313

1.9% 51.5% 1.7% 66.3%
 486 495 530 490 519 532 274 255 297 288
433 447 521 484 443 474 503 471 423 485
112% 111% 102% 101% 117% 112% 54% 54% 70% 59%

2,045 2,031 2,016 1,782 1,769 1,752 1,737 1,727 1,711 1,698
-1% -1% -12% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
Q3FY14 Q4FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15

2,087 2,268 1,868 2,062 2,101 2,395

(1,401) (1,480) (1,312) (1,280) (1,283) (1,386)
685 788 556 782 818 1,009

(13) (16) (13) (13) (14) (17)

(15) (19) (18) (19) (16) (18)
(48) (91) (41) (100) (59) (126)
610 664 485 651 728 847

99 99 87 84 85 85
709 763 572 735 813 933

58 132 56 628 82 42
(41) (36) (18) (16) (13) (10)
91 (31) 29 9 - 0
719 729 552 1,272 798 879

(246) (124) (183) (349) (230) (244)

473 605 369 923 569 635
0

227 227 227 227 227 227

2.1 2.66 1.6 4.1 2.5 2.80
2.25 4.0
511 909
75%

1,037 890 1,142 561 934 607

1,353 1,582 1,615 1,674 1,734 1,788
71 61 69 71 87 90
5 5 9 0 0 0
63 - - - - -
17 16 11 42 22 25
530 674 580 600 480 584
1,274 1,033 1,062 1,023 814 789
8 1 2 3 3 3
- - - - - -
4,359 4,262 4,491 3,973 4,074 3,886

7,554 7,509 7,425 7,375 7,471 7,386

- - - - - -
0 0 0 0 0 0 0.13
 40 39 39 39 39 39
65 66 66 66 66 66
7,659 7,615 7,530 7,480 7,576 7,491

12,018 11,877 12,021 11,454 11,650 11,377

1,063 967 1,244 893 1,443 1,263

44 33 73 79 103 85
296 304 299 23 20 49
404 - - 298 - -
- - - - - -
- 227 316 226 309 284
1,406 1,451 1,314 75 - -
3,214 2,982 3,246 1,594 1,875 1,680

675 562 525 450 375 300

- - - - - -
3 3 3 3 2 2
1,702 1,527 1,530 1,767 1,701 1,666
- - - - - -
2,380 2,093 2,058 2,220 2,077 1,967

2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271 2,271

2,470 2,863 2,788 3,729 3,799 3,526
1,683 1,668 1,657 1,640 1,627 1,614
6,424 6,802 6,717 7,640 7,698 7,411

12,018 11,877 12,021 11,454 11,650 11,059

- - - - - (318)
2,087 2,268 1,868 2,062 2,101 2,327

0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29

0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

0.31 0.35 0.22 0.28 0.24

0.31 0.33 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.34

0.31 0.34 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.34

59% 64% 52% 55% 58% 64%

8,558 8,374 8,660 8,857 8,850 8,789

0% -2% 3% 2% 0% -1%

-54% -52% -56% -49% -48% -47%

(1,401) (1,480) (1,312) (1,280) (1,283) (1,386)

2,616 2,823 2,347 2,603 2,654 2,946

(17) (22) (17) (17) (13) (19)
(402) (418) (361) (410) (422) (468)
(111) (115) (101) (115) (118) (131)
2,087 2,268 1,868 2,062 2,101 2,327
 -1% -1% -1% -1% 0% -1%
-15% -15% -15% -16% -16% -16%
-4% -4% -4% -4% -4% -4%

(13) (16) (13) (13) (14) (15)

2,616 2,823 2,347 2,603 2,654 2,946
-0.48% -0.55% -0.56% -0.49% -0.52% -0.52%

(15) (19) (18) (19) (16) (18)

70
558

58 132 56 628 82 86
1,458 1,687 1,720 1,780 1,839 1,893
4.0% 8.4% 3.3% 4.0% 4.6% 4.6%

(41) (36) (18) (16) (13) (11)

2,630 2,249 1,926 1,330 598 523
-2% -2% -1% -1% -2% -2%

(246) (124) (183) (349) (230) (262)

719 729 552 1,272 798 879
-34% -17% -33% -27% -29% -30%

3 3 3 3 3 3
30 37 43 41 38 38
56 62 76 75 82 82

71 61 69 71 87 90
530 674 580 600 480 584
1,063 967 1,244 893 1,443 1,263

1,353 1,582 1,615 1,674 1,734 1,788

3.1% 16.9% 2.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1%
 296 304 299 23 20 49
514 577 458 1,017 463 1,468
58% 53% 65% 2% 4% 3%

1,683 1,668 1,657 1,640 1,627 1,614

-1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -1%
 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E
Utilization level 49% 60% 61% 56% 59% 57% 57%
Dispatches 1.19 1.23 1.19 1.28 1.27 1.17 1.20
Price /ton 5,725 4,183 5,432 6,767 7,438 8,429 8,792
Revenue 5,000 3,873 5,273 6,487 7,568 8,025 8,357
Revenue Growth -23% 36% 23% 17% 6% 4%
COGS as a % of revenue -55% -74% -65% -61% -56% -54% -50%
Gross Margin % 27% -2% 14% 24% 32% 32.3% 37.6%
Finance expenses (451) (393) (358) (328) (170) (155) (56)
EBIT margin 12% -8% 10% 21% 27.9% 28.4% 32.2%
EBITDA margin 20% 2% 17% 27% 33% 33% 36%
Net income 36 (591) 121 602 1,535 1,769 2,496
Net income growth -1736% -120% 399% 155% 15% 41%
Net Margin % 1% -15% 2% 9% 20% 22% 29.6%
ROE 1% -14% 3% 12% 25% 26% 34%
EPS 0.18 (2.65) 0.53 2.65 6.76 7.79 10.99
DPS - - - - 4.00 4.25 6.25
Payout 0% 0% 0% 0% 59% 55% 57%
D/Y 4.8% 5.1% 7.5%
EV/EBITDA 20.95 315.30 25.07 12.59 8.27 7.52 6.24
EV 20,491 22,827 22,609 22,086 20,559 20,147 19,034
EBITDA 978 72 902 1755 2486 2678 3052
Outstanding shares 200 223 227 227 227 227 227
Mkt Price 83.75 83.75 83.75 83.75 83.75 83.75 83.75
Total Dividend - - - - 909 965 1,420
BVPS 23 19 20 22 27 30 33
P/E 463 (32) 158 32 12 11 7.6
P/BV 3.65 4.30 4.20 3.87 3.08 2.80 2.57
Retained earnings 405 (9) 195 865 2,171 2,863 3,526
Debt 3,939 4,227 3,735 3,331 3,000 2,013 300
Cash and cash equivalent 159 56 150 269 1,465 890 289
Operating Cash Flow (220) 614 499 1,912 1,877 3,181
Operating Cash Flow/share - (0.99) 2.70 2.20 8.42 8.26 14.01
Current ratio 0.29 0.27 0.27 0.43 1.08 1.43 2.12
Quick Ratio 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.34 0.99 1.20 1.78
Debt to capital Ratio 46.2% 49.3% 45.2% 40.4% 32.7% 22.8% 3.9%
 FY16F FY17F FY18F FY19F
60% 63% 66% 69%
1.26 1.32 1.38 1.45
9,097 9,341 9,493 9,546
9,054 9,743 10,396 10,978
8% 8% 7% 6%
-50% -45% -45% -45%
36.4% 43.3% 43.5% 43.1%
(16) (14) (7) (3)
32.3% 39% 39% 38%
36% 42% 42% 42%
2,314 2,927 3,131 3,269
-7% 26% 7% 4%
26% 30% 30% 30%
28% 31% 29% 28%
10.19 12.89 13.79 14.39
6.00 7.75 8.25 8.75
60% 60% 60% 60%
7.2% 9.3% 9.9% 10.4%
5.64 4.29 3.74 3.31
18,428 17,756 16,476 15,172
3268 4135 4404 4582
227 227 227 227
83.75 83.75 83.75 83.75
1,363 1,760 1,874 1,988
37 42 47 52
8.22 6.5 6.1 5.8
2.29 2.02 1.79 1.60
4,477 5,644 6,901 8,182
374 213 68 65
970 1,482 2,615 3,917
2,562 2,957 3,731 3,751
11.28 13.02 16.42 16.52
2.53 3.31 4.55 5.26
2.14 2.90 4.05 4.75
4.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.5%