Stock Update

Jubilant Foodworks Limited

Picking up a ‘strategic’ slice
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Consumer Discretionary Sharekhan code: JUBLFOOD Company Update

3R MATRIX + = - Summary
Š Jubilant Foodworks (JFL), through the recently-formed subsidiary in Netherlands, acquired
Right Sector (RS) ü a 32.8% stake in DP Eurasia NV, the exclusive franchisee of Domino’s Pizza brand in Turkey,
Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
Right Quality (RQ) ü Š JFL to pay Rs. 250 crore for 32.8% in DP Eurasia; deal valued at 0.5x its CY2020 sales of Rs.
1,635 crore; DP Eurasia operates the Domino’s brand in four countries through 770 stores
ü (Delivery to Dine-in mix 75:25).
Right Valuation (RV)
Š JFL’s domestic business hit pre-COVID levels in Q3; but recent rise in COVID cases remains
a key risk to sales in the near term.
+ Positive = Neutral - Negative
Š New ventures such as entering into Chinese cuisine and Biryani segments and strategic
stake buy augur well for long term; maintain Buy with revised PT of Rs. 3,380.
What has changed in 3R MATRIX
Old New Jubilant Foodworks Limited (JFL) will fully acquire Fides Food Systems Coöperatief U.A.,
Netherlands (Fides) for an agreed investment of approximately GBP 24.80 million (~Rs.
RS  252.2 crore) through its wholly owned subsidiary - Jubilant Foodworks Netherlands B.V
in all-cash deal. Fides is the beneficial owner of 32.81% of equity shares of DP Eurasia
RQ  N.V. (DP Eurasia), which is the exclusive master franchisee of the Domino’s Pizza brand
in Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. DP Eurasia (together with its subsidiaries)
RV  offers pizza delivery and takeaway/ eat-in facilities (mix of 75:25) at 771 stores (568 in
Turkey, 190 in Russia, 9 in Azerbaijan and 4 in Georgia as on December 31, 2020).Since
2010, the group has rapidly expanded, opening a net average of ~70 system stores
Reco/View Change per year over 2011 to 2019, reaching 765 stores. The COVID-19 pandemic led to the
Reco: Buy  closure of many non-profitable stores resulting in net addition of 6 stores in CY2020.
DP Eurasia registered revenues of TRY (Turkish Lira) 1569.9 million (~Rs. 1,635 crore) in
CMP: Rs. 3,126 CY2020, a growth of ~15%.Same-store-sales rose by 17.4%. Turkey contributes ~68% of
revenues while rest of Russia contributes 32% of revenues. Turkey operations clocked
Price Target: Rs. 3,380 á EBIDTA margins of ~13% while Russian operations recorded EBIDTA margins of ~5%.
The company has a decent liquidity position with over Rs. 130 crore cash on its books.
á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade
DP Eurasia’s master franchisee agreement is valid until 2032 with an option to renew
agreement for another 15 years.At an investment value of GBP 24.8million,the deal is
Company details valued at CY2019 0.6x EV/Sales and 7.7x EV/EBIDTA (0.5x its CY2020 sales), which is
Market cap: Rs. 41,254 cr at discount. JFL will focus on utilising its expertise of 25 years in the Indian market to
improve the growth prospects of DP Eurasia’s and improve JFL shareholders’ value in
52-week high/low: Rs. 3127/1142 the long run. On the other hand, JFL’s domestic business has reached to pre-covid levels
with strong growth in the delivery and takeaway sales. We need to keenly monitor the
NSE volume: impact of the recent surge in the covid case on the performance in the coming months.
10.5 lakh
(No of shares) The company has maintained its strong store expansion strategy and offering better
quality products, which will help in achieving better same-store-sales in the coming
BSE code: 533155 years.
NSE code: JUBLFOOD Our Call
Free float: View - Maintain Buy with revised TP of Rs. 3,380: In the last couple of years JFL has
7.7 cr forayed into various ventures (such Hong’s Kitchen and EK!Dum Biryani) in the domestic
(No of shares)
market, started offering their brand-owned ready-to-cook range of sauces, gravies and
pastes under the Chef Boss brand and focused on increasing presence in neighbouring
Shareholding (%) countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to improve its growth prospects in long run.
Further the acquisition of 10% stake in Barbeque Nation and a ~33% stake in DP Eurasia
Promoters 41.9 has been done to improve shareholder value in the long run. With the long-term growth
FII 39.7 prospects of India’s QSR market remaining intact, we believe that JFL, with its strong
store expansions, will be one of the key beneficiaries of the same. We maintain a Buy
DII 12.8 recommendation on the stock, with a revised price target of Rs. 3,380 (valuing stock at 62x
its FY2023E EPS).
Others 5.6
Key Risks
Price chart Any significant decline in delivery/takeaway sales due to enhanced competition or
localise lockdown due to a rise in cases in the coming quarters would act as a key risk to
3500
our earnings estimates in the near to medium term.
3000
2500
2000
Valuation (Standalone) Rs cr
1500
1000 Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
500 Revenue 3,531 3,886 3,203 4,396 5,199
Feb-20

Feb-21
Jun-20

Oct-20

OPM (%) 17.2 22.6 23.1 25.7 26.9

Adjusted PAT 331 331 222 509 708
Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 25.0 25.1 16.8 38.6 53.7
P/E (x) 121.4 121.3 180.7 78.9 56.7
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m
P/B (x) 30.3 33.9 35.1 25.5 18.2
Absolute 13.8 19.4 46.5 67.6 EV/EBIDTA (x) 64.8 46.9 55.4 35.7 28.2
Relative to RoNW (%) 27.9 26.4 19.1 37.5 37.5
12.0 6.5 18.3 44.4
Sensex
RoCE (%) 40.6 28.9 16.5 29.3 33.4
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

February 22, 2021 2

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Business fundamentals of DP Eurasia

DP Eurasia together with its subsidiaries (the “Group”) offers pizza delivery and takeaway/eat in facilities at
771 stores (as on December 31, 2020) across four countries (568 in Turkey, 190 in Russia, 9 in Azerbaijan and
4 in Georgia).The Group maintains a strategic balance between corporate and franchisee stores, establishing
networks of corporate stores in densely-populated areas to provide a development platform that would
promote best practices and maximise profitability. Around 71% of stores are based on franchisee model. The
company’s delivery to take-away/dine-in mix stood at 74:26 in CY2020 from improved from 63:37 in CY2019.
Store count
Countries CY2020 CY2019
Corporate Franchised Total Corporate Franchised Total
Turkey 106 462 568 123 427 550
Russia 115 75 190 121 82 203
Azerbaijan - 9 9 0 8 8
Georgia - 4 4 0 4 4
Total 221 550 771 244 521 765
Source: DP Eurasia annual report, Sharekhan Research

Delivery channel mix

Particulars CY2020 CY2019
Turkey Russia Total Turkey Russia Total
Store 28.5 10.3 23.9 32.0 18.0 27.8
Online 70.2 89.7 75.3 64.2 82.0 69.9
Group's online platform 25.9 18.3 40.0 28.5 80.5 47.0
Aggregator 44.3 71.4 35.3 35.7 1.5 22.8
Call Centre 1.3 0.0 0.9 3.8 0.0 2.1
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Source: DP Eurasia annual report, Sharekhan Research

Systematic store additions

800

700
203 190
179
600 121
72
500 43
No of stores

400

300 568
522 545 550
466 495
200

100

0
CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

DP Turkey DP Russia

Source: DP Eurasia annual report, Sharekhan Research

Operations in various countries

Turkey (contributes ~68% to revenues): DP Eurasia is the largest pizza delivery company in Turkey in terms
of system sales and number of stores. Its store network of 462 stores in Turkey is more than four times larger
than the next largest chained competitor in the pizza sub segment, and is also larger than the next seven
chained pizza competitors combined. DP Eurasia believes that the operating leverage in its business in Turkey
can create further value as the store and online footprint continues to increase. The nationwide scale of the
Group’s operations reinforces brand awareness, making Domino’s Pizza a household name in Turkish fast
food, thereby further driving sales and the system stores’ contribution to the Group’s national advertising
initiatives.

February 22, 2021 3

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Russia (contributes ~2% to revenues): DP Eurasia has improved its market position since acquiring the
exclusive master franchise rights in 2012. As on December 31, 2020, based on the Group’s data on competition,
it had the third largest store network in the chained pizza sub segment in Russia with 75 stores. In Russia, the
company expects to extract similar value from operating leverage as it plans to continue to grow the franchise
part of the business and increase the overall scale of the system.

Revenues soar steadily over CY2017-20

1800
1569.9
1600
1370.3
1400

1200 1125.3
TRY Milllion

1000
859.8
800

600

400

200

0
CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

Source: DP Eurasia annual report. Sharekhan Research

Turkey’s same-store-sale growth remains strong

35
28.9
30
26
25
like-to-like sales growth (%)

20
16
15 13.1
10.3 9.3
10

5
0.7
0

-5 CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

-10

-15 -12.6
Turkey Russia

Source: DP Eurasia annual report. Sharekhan Research

February 22, 2021 4

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Clicking away - Online sales’ share improved to 75%

80 75
70
70
60.8
60
51.8
Online contribution (%)

50

40

30

20

10

0
CY17 CY18 CY19 CY20

Source: DP Eurasia annual report. Sharekhan Research

EBIDTA – A consistent improvement

140
124.5
120 110.6

100 90.8
TRY Million

80

60

40

20

0
CY17 CY18 CY19

Source: DP Eurasia annual report. Sharekhan Research

February 22, 2021 5

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Financials in charts

Same store sales recovered to pre-covid levels OPM stood at 26% in Q3

40 26.5 25.9 29 26.7 26.4
30 17.8 20.5
14.6 23.3 23.8 23.9
20 6.0 4.0 4.9 5.9 25
10 -3.5 -1.7 18.9
21 17.7
0 16.717.3
-10 -20 17
SSSG (%)

(%)
-20
-30 13
-45
-40 9 6.3
-50
5
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q2FY20

Q3FY20

Q4FY20

Q1FY21

Q2FY21

Q3FY21
Same Stores Sales Growth OPM (%)
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Mobile and online sales contribution gone up substantially No. Of stores of Dominos in India
120

1354
1400

1335
96 99 98 9998 9898

1325
95

1314
100 88 88 89 93
89 1350

1283
81 85 87

1264
75

1249
80 73 1300

1227
1200
60 1250
1167
1144
1200
1134

40
1127
(%)

20 1150
1100
0
1050
Q3FY19

Q4FY19

Q1FY20

Q2FY20

Q3FY20

Q4FY20

Q1FY21

Q2FY21

Q3FY21

Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q4FY19
Q1FY20
Q2FY20
Q3FY20
Q4FY20
Q1FY21
Q2FY21
Q3FY21
Avg. OLO cont. to delivery sales Mobile ordering cont. to OLO sales No. of stores (Dominos)
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Trend in revenues Return ratios remained strong

5000 45 40.6 40.6
3886 40
4000 3531 35 31.0
2980 30
3000 2410 2546
25 19.5 27.9 27.9
20
(%)

2000 12.3 21.8

15
1000 10 14.3
107 206 331 259
76 5 9.2
0 0
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Revenue PAT RoE (%) RoCE (%)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

February 22, 2021 6

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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector view - QSR market will be boosted by higher delivery/takeaway sales
The organised food service market in India is around Rs. 1,000 billion. QSR accounts for ~10% of the overall food
service market. The Indian society is evolving with rising working population, nuclear/individual households,
and more outdoor activities such as leisure trips and outings with friends, families, and colleagues. These
factors are driving the frequency of eating out. However, in the post-pandemic era, trends in the food service
industry are expected to shift towards online food ordering, increased share of delivery and takeaway mix,
changed customer perceptions about product consumption and services, higher emphasis on hygiene and
safety among businesses and customers alike, and an exponential rise in digitalisation owing to a greater
focus on contactless and safer transactions. Established and trusted brands that have always upheld safety
and hygiene have top-of-the-mind awareness for customers who are purchasing food.
n Company outlook - Revenue recovered to 100% in Q3; Growth trajectory to improve further
JFL posted a strong recovery in Q3,reaching 100.3% of pre-COVID levels with delivery and takeaway models
gaining strong traction. The increased trend of digital ordering (increased frequency of orders from existing
customers and new customers ordering through the app), a strong delivery model, recovery in the dine-in part
of the business and store additions (expect 40-50 stores to be added per quarter) would help the company
improve its revenue trajectory in the coming quarters. Higher realisation per order, introduction of delivery
charges of Rs. 30 per order, lower wastages, and shifting to variable manpower model would help margins to
remain high despite inflating input prices.
n Valuation - Maintain Buy with revised PTof Rs. 3,380
In the last couple of years JFL has forayed into various ventures (such Hong’s Kitchen and EK!Dum Biryani) in
the domestic market, started offering their brand-owned ready-to-cook range of sauces, gravies and pastes
under the ChefBoss brand and focused on increasing presence in neighbouring countries such as Sri Lanka
and Bangladesh to improve its growth prospects in long run. Further the acquisition of 10% stake in Barbeque
Nation and a ~33% stake in DP Eurasia has been done to improve shareholder value in the long run. With the
long-term growth prospects of India’s QSR market remaining intact, we believe that JFL, with its strong store
expansions, will be one of the key beneficiaries of the same. We maintain a Buy recommendation on the stock,
with a revised price target of Rs. 3,380 (valuing stock at 62x its FY2023E EPS).

One-year forward P/E (x) band

3500
45x

3000
35x
2500

2000 25x

1500
15x

1000

500

0
Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21
Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20
Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17

Oct-17

Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20
Nov-14

Nov-15

Nov-16

Source: Sharekhan Research

Peer Comparison
P/E (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) RoCE (%)
Particulars
FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E
Westlife Development - 130.3 73.2 137.3 29.1 23.2 - 6.8 11.0
Jubilant Foodworks 185.7 81.1 58.3 56.9 36.7 29.0 16.5 29.3 33.4
Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates

February 22, 2021 7

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About company
JFL is one of India’s largest food service companies. The company is part of the Jubilant Bhartia Group,
India’s most respected conglomerate operating in diverse business areas with a strong global presence. JFL
currently operates Domino’s Pizza and Dunkin Donuts brands in India. The company also operates Domino’s
Pizza through its subsidiaries in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh. Domino’s Pizza is the largest pizza chain
in India in terms of restaurant numbers, as well as the world’s largest franchisee outside the US for Domino’s
Pizza brand. Dunkin Donuts is the world’s leading baked goods and coffee chain. JFL’s network comprises
1,354Domino’s Pizza restaurants, spanning across 288 cities, and 30Dunkin Donuts restaurants across 10
cities. The company has entered into the Chinese cuisine segment with its first owned restaurant brand,
Hong’s Kitchen; the company has four Hong’s Kitchen restaurants across two cities in India. The company has
also forayed into the ready-to-cook segment with a range of sauces, gravies, and pastes under the newly
launched brand, Chef Boss.

Investment theme
JFL has four strategic pillars: product and innovation, value for money, customer experience, and digital
and technology to drive growth, efficiency, and productivity. The company has introduced the Every Day
Value (EDV) offer to enhance its value-for-money proposition. With a revamped mobile app and website,
the company has been increasing its OLO share, which is in line with its strategy of technology-driven
growth. JFL has also entered into the Chinese cuisine market by launching its first-owned restaurant
brand, Hong’s Kitchen, recently. Expansion strategies along with robust SSSG, increasing number of
stores, cost optimisation, and customer-satisfaction initiatives would be key growth drivers for JFL.

Key Risks
Š Slowdown in demand: Any slowdown in the demand environment would impact revenue growth.
Š Increased raw-material costs:A significant increase in key raw-material prices would impact profitability.
Š Increased competition: Increased competition in the QSR category would act as a threat to revenue
growth.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Shyam S Bhartia Chairman and Managing Director
Hari S Bhartia Co-chairman
Pratik Pota CEO & Whole Time Director
Prakash C Bisht Chief Financial Officer
Mona Aggarwal Company Secretary
Source: Company

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Sands Capital Management 5.0
2 UTI Asset Management Co Ltd 2.6
3 JPMorgan Group 2.5
4 Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co 2.3
5 Motilal Oswal Asset Management Co 2.2
6 Vanguard Group Inc 1.9
7 Arisaig Global Emerging MK 1.7
8 Hillhouse Capital Advisors Ltd 1.6
9 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 1.4
10 Tata Asset Management Ltd 1.3
Source: Bloomberg; *As on May 20, 2020

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

February 22, 2021 8

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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