The NATO pull-out of Afghanistan: Implications for
Energy Security in INDIA
Dilip K Gottimukulla Dwaipayan Sen Naghma Abedi Nishith Gupta Rohit Jain
On 15th August, 2021, Taliban took over almost
entire Afghanistan by force disregarding
conditional peace agreement with United States
for withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan
in exchange for Taliban’s commitment that
Afghan soil will not be used to promote
terrorism.[1] Eventually, the Afghan government
surrendered before Taliban and a transition of
power is taking place.[2] Since, India maintained a
close relationship with Afghan Government, the
recent political turmoil in Afghanistan is a point of
concern for India.[3]
For the past 2 decades, India has played an
instrumental role in the development of various
infrastructure projects in Afghanistan, amounting
to the tune of USD 3 billion.[4] The infrastructure
projects developed by India include Hydel Power
Dams, Parliament building, Power Transmission
lines & power stations etc. This work has led to
reinforcement of relation with its strategic
neighbor Afghanistan. Afghanistan, due to its
strategic geographic location, is a key link that
connects South Asia and West Asia with Central
Asia. Improved ties with Afghanistan give India an
opportunity to tap the vast Energy Market in
Central Asia.[5] As India is a net energy deficit
country which imports a considerable amount of
natural gas, this opportunity provides it with a
cost-effective solution & alternate supply chain to
import the natural gas from Central Asia viz.
Turkmenistan. Accordingly, to boost natural gas
supply India is a partner in the TAPI/ Trans-
Afghan pipeline project which passes through
Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India.[6]
With Taliban taking over Afghanistan and ongoing
political and civilian unrest, the project’s work may
be hampered affecting India’s interests as stated
above.
Reportedly, the Taliban has regained control of
trillion-dollar lithium/ rare earth reserves that
could boost the world's transition to renewable
energies.[7]
Since Taliban regained control over Afghanistan
after 20 years of NATO led International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) [8], it is expected that
Taliban will continue to be in power as of now.
With Afghanistan under Taliban control,
Pakistan and China will have the upper hand
in the region which shall severely undermine
the interest of India.
As observed from the past, India’s principle
has been to support only a democratically
elected Government, hence, it may be prudent
for India to follow the situation closely until
complete transfer of power in Afghanistan
takes place.[9] Taliban’s approach towards
India, their legitimacy and their recognition
from global powers will play an important role
here. At the same time, India may hope for
improvement in ties with both Pakistan and
China without any compromise over its
territorial sovereignty in Kashmir and Ladakh.
This shall lessen the built-up tension in South-
East Asia. Once India’s relation with China and
Pakistan improves, India can indirectly get
involved in Afghanistan without directly dealing
with Taliban.
However, improvement in relations with China
& Pakistan in near future seems unlikely due
to border dispute & abrogation of Article 370.
[10] In that case, India may need to explore
other options to safeguard its interests in
Afghanistan including international lobbying to
put pressure on Taliban to continue and
support Indian projects. Once the development
work gets started, the ongoing projects like
TAPI pipeline will be back on track.
If both the above strategies don't work, as a
last resort, India may start new projects in Iran
to tap energy from Central Asia.
Since, there are several options still open for
India to explore, it is safe to say that
investment in the Energy Sector in India will be
a safe bet. However, the Company needs to
keep reviewing the investment plan depending
on how the situation on the ground unfolds in
Afghanistan.
 REFERENCES

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taliban [Last

accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/wo
rld/asia/taliban-victory-strategy-
afghanistan.html [Last accessed on Sep
24, 2021]
[3] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne
ws/defence/concerned-over-situation-in-
afghanistan-
india/articleshow/85272356.cms [Last
accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[4] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/op
inion/et-commentary/view-the-scramble-
for-afghanistans-untapped-1-3-trillion-
mineral-and-oil-resources-will-begin-
soon/articleshow/85664703.cms?from=
mdr [Last accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[5] https://www.eureporter.co/world/afghani
stan/2021/06/11/afghanistan-as-a-
bridge-connecting-central-and-south-
asia/ [Last accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkmenista
n%E2%80%93Afghanistan%E2%80%93
Pakistan%E2%80%93India_Pipeline
[Last accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[7] https://www.trtworld.com/business/taliba
n-sitting-on-untapped-trove-of-minerals-
worth-1-trillion-49375 [Last accessed on
Sep 24, 2021]
[8] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International
_Security_Assistance_Force [Last
accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[9] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national
/taliban-gains-complicate-indias-
options/article35898057.ece [Last
accessed on Sep 24, 2021]
[10] https://www.thehindu.com/news/national
/indias-article-370-abrogation-illegal-
says-china/article32275663.ece [Last
accessed on Sep 24, 2021]