TAPI

Turkmenistan, Afghanistan,
Pakistan and India Pipeline

By: Roya Saqib, Year 2011.

Class: Political Economy of South Asia. MA in IR, JNU.
TAPI Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India
Pipeline
Introduction
South Asian countries’ Cooperation in energy area is crucial in
furthering the cooperation and bringing about peace in the
region among the concerned counties, since this area, due to the
serious need for the energy of the SAs leading countries (India
and Pakistan), has the potential to pave the way for a
compromise and a balanced bargain, it is hoped that a peace
could be achieved if the challenges are tackled and the trade is
started. This presentation is highlighting such a planned
cooperation under the TAPI pipeline project.
Focus points on TAPI
 Pipeline merit over LNG
 Background
 Technical Features
 The Significance―A win-win for all
 TAPI implementation challenges
 conclusion
Advantage of Pipeline over LNG trade
gas transport by pipeline is considered
economic in relation to gas transport as
LNG up to distance
pipeline option confers greater supply
security to the importer, since it is not
easy for the exporter to shift the pipeline
to some other country, which would
offers a better price.
Background TAP-TAPI
 Long time at stake (since 1990s)
 2 Consortium BRIDAS and UNOCAL
 US support for UNOCAL, 1997 negotiation with
Taliban
 In 2001 negotiation broke down , and
 Afghan new government negotiation started again
 2003 ADB started the technical studies assistance
 India was proposed to participate- TAP to TAPI
 2008 all participants signed
 Supposed to start supply of gas by 2015
 But pipeline construction has not started yet
 Technical Features

 Dauletabad gas field in Turkmenistan along the highway through

Herat, Helmand and Kandahar in Afghanistan, to Quetta and
Multan in Pakistan, and on to Fazilka in India.
 1,680 km pipeline
 1,420 millimeters (56 in) in diameter
 working pressure of 100 standard atmospheres.
 The initial capacity will be 27 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural
gas per year. 2 bcm to Afghanistan and 12.5 bcm to each Pakistan
and India.
 Later the capacity will increase to 33 bcm. Less than 5 bcm
Afghanistan and 14 each for India and Pakistan
 Initially estimate of cost US $3.3 bn. Now increased to US
$7.6 billion
 The project is to be financed by the Asian Development Bank
The Significance―A win-win for all
For Turkmenistan:
Rich in natural gas reserves
Far from world oceans
Wants access to market to
export its gas
TAPI-A Revenue source and
diversification of its export
roots
According to a
Statistical Review
2009, Turkmenistan
has the world’s fourth
largest reserves of
natural gas, 7.94
trillion cubic meters
(TCM), exceeded only
by Russia, Iran and
Qatar.
Significance cont.…….
Afghanistan For Afghanistan :
is an  TAPI could mean around five
important billion cubic meters of gas for
internal needs
bridge
 $300 million of transit profits
between
leading to certain employment
South and and source-of-income
Central opportunities
Asia.
SIGNIFICANCE CONT.…….
For India
 to acquire additional
sources of energy supplies
 Strategic benefit of
equating china in getting a
foothold in Central Asia
For Pakistan also it means
a source for the demands
of its energy deficit.
presently, India’s
gas demand = 57.32
bcm of annual, 45.58
bcm are provided
domestically. The
balance is imported
as LNG, including 5
bcm from Qatar.
This consumption
need will double acc.
to a forecast in near
future.
For US and Russia
Russia interested in US want to connect South
TAPI, to central Asia to extend
If it manages to become its influence from South to
Central Asia. (New Great
a part of the project it
Game)
will renew Moscow’s
It also wants to check
strategic influence in the
Russia and counter China
region
Also looks it as an
and reduce the EU
alternative to IPI for India,
source of available gas to weaken the Iran trade in
field gas.
 Challenges
 Political • The rivalry between the US to
instability implement the western style
in Central Asia. democracy and Russia to
 the unstable support the autocrats to
maintain its writ has made the
situation in political situation in CA
Afghanistan fragile.
• Pakistan and India conflict
 and the complex
over Kashmir is seen as
Pakistan- India unresolvable and makes a filter
for them to see the interest
relationships which lies in cooperation.
Major challenge: Afghanistan Security
In 2008, the Afghan
government promised
to ensure the security
of TAPI pipeline
within two years.
Despite of efforts the
Helmand, Kandahar
areas around TAPI has
remained the heaviest
insurgency areas. Thus
the Companies are
unlikely to make
investments within a
war zone. Building it
under arm guard and
then defending it for
long would mean a
very high cost.
 Conclusion
Potential are high in the development of concerned
countries (particularly of the energy deficit leading
countries of SA- India and Pakistan), in initiating an
inter-regional trade and in promotion of relative peace
between India and Pakistan in the region.
the US interference and its opposition to IPI; leading
India to be deprived of IPI in support of US alliance,
urges it to try to get a bigger share of TAPI to its own
benefit instead of its giving up IPI deal, would mean
the persistence of conflict in agreement over TAPI
Afghanistan Security challenges as a major route