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A disappearing biome? Reconsidering land‐cover change in the

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The Geographical Journal, Vol. 171, No. 2, June 2005, pp. 99–111

A disappearing biome? Reconsidering land-cover

Blackwell Publishing, Ltd.

change in the Brazilian savanna

WENDY JEPSON
Department of Geography, 803D Eller O&M Building, Texas A&M University, College Station,
TX 77843-3147, USA
E-mail: wjepson@geog.tamu.edu
This paper was accepted for publication in February 2004

The Cerrado, the tropical savanna covering 22% of Brazil’s territory, or approximately
1.783 million km2, has suffered significant human impacts during the past three decades.
This paper re-examines estimates of Cerrado vegetation change dynamics using high-
resolution satellite remote sensing data from an area of interest extracted from eastern
Mato Grosso State. This region has undergone a high degree of typical agricultural
development since the early 1970s. Results indicate significant loss of original vegetation
as well as high levels of regeneration, suggesting Cerrado vegetation may be more resilient
to human impacts than catastrophic estimations suggest. The paper concludes with a
critical review of Cerrado land-cover change studies and the implications of evidence
for vegetation regeneration, land-cover dynamism and land-use intensification, paying
particular attention to spatial scale and research methods. The discussion concludes that
Cerrado land-cover change studied at a higher resolution and larger scales (smaller area)
is required to represent more effectively the complexity of land conversion for better
assessment of human impacts and environmental policy.

KEY WORDS: Brazil, land-cover change, tropical savanna, remote sensing, Cerrado,
environmental policy

cover change nor specified the spatial processes of

Introduction
vegetation fragmentation. The only estimates focus

T
he Cerrado, a tropical savanna covering 22%
of Brazil’s territory or approximately 1.783
million km2, has suffered significant human
impacts during the past three decades (Figure 1).
Today’s globally significant breadbasket hardly
resembles the Cerrado surveyed by the Royal Society/
Royal Geographical Society in the late 1960s (Brown
et al. 1970; Warnken 1999). Many environmental
activists and ecologists argue that the expansion of
cattle ranching and soybean cultivation in the
Cerrado is indicative of economic globalization’s
voracious appetite for natural resources (Klink et al.
1993; Alho and Souza Martins 1995; Ratter et al.
1997; Branford and Freris 2000; WWF-Brasil 2000;
Fearnside 2001; Klink and Moreira 2002). Although
the view that the Cerrado is rapidly disappearing
has gained much currency in international environ-
mental policy circles, high-resolution spatial analysis
has neither quantified the dynamics of Cerrado land-
0016-7398/05/0002-0001/$00.20/0
on aggregate vegetation loss for the entire ecore-
gion. One estimate suggests that Cerrado land-
cover loss is outpacing the 13% or 400 000 km2 of
aggregate Brazilian rainforest loss (Ratter et al.
1997). Another argues that agro-pastoral land uses
have converted 40% of the Cerrado (Joly et al.
1999). Other studies use agricultural census data to
claim that approximately 50% of the Cerrado has
been eliminated (Alho and Souza Martins 1995,
34). A further estimate, based upon small carto-
graphic scale (large area) satellite remote sensing,
is that only 35% of the Cerrado is in a ‘relatively
natural state’ (Mantovani and Pereira 1998). A fifth
estimate indicates that humans have modified more
than 80% of the Cerrado, leaving only 20% of
‘original, native vegetation’ (WWF-Brasil 2000, 9;
Mittermeier et al. 2000).
Notwithstanding their quantitative disparities,
estimates of the ‘disappearing’ Cerrado create
© 2005 The Royal Geographical Society
100 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
Figure 1 Brazilian Cerrado and study region location
consensus around an environmental discourse of
biodiversity loss and attending agenda that promotes
protected areas for conservation. Key elements on
the agenda include consolidating current conserva-
tion units (only 5.2% of the Cerrado is protected
by some conservation regime), developing large
ecological corridors, and enhancing legislation to
protect undisturbed areas (Ratter et al. 1997; Silva
and Bates 2002; Calvalcanti and Joly 2002, 354 –7).
With estimates indicating massive and rapid loss of
territorial biota to agro-pastoral activities, it seems
logical that the best path for biodiversity protection
is the swift demarcation of lands for preservation.
In practice, little else beyond the advocacy for
new or expanded protected areas of undisturbed
Cerrado is being pursued by environmental policy-
makers (Cavalcanti and Joly 2002).
This paper re-examines estimates of Cerrado
vegetation change dynamics. It tests the accuracy
of previously stated assessments of Cerrado trans-
formation using high-resolution satellite remote
sensing data. This approach allows for a comparison
of overall estimates on Cerrado land conversion with
an area of interest extracted from eastern Mato
Grosso State, a region in the Brazilian Cerrado that
has undergone a high degree of agricultural devel-
opment since the early 1970s (Figure 1). The paper
begins with an overview of Cerrado biogeography
and the study region in eastern Mato Grosso. Next,
the paper discusses the processing and classifica-
tion of the satellite remote sensing data, followed
by a review of the land-cover change detection
analysis and results. The paper employs change
detection methods to describe the region’s complex
landscape mosaics and mixtures of land cover
between 1986 and 1999. This type of high-resolution
analysis reveals how different land covers follow
time sequences and how these land covers are
often reversible for the same geographical unit. The
ensuing discussion section draws from the case of
Cerrado land-cover change in the study region to
discuss the importance of vegetation regeneration
and land-cover change dynamics, remote sensing
methodology, and environmental policy. The paper
concludes that the analysis offers a contrasting
view of Cerrado land conversion when compared
with current estimates. This disparity not only
holds implications for a better understanding of
the dynamic and process of Cerrado landscape
transformation, but also for scientific study of
biological diversity, climate change, and environ-
mental policies.
The Brazilian Cerrado and Eastern Mato Grosso
The Brazilian Cerrado is characterized by an
undulating topography with wide interfluves inter-
rupted by tributaries of the Amazon, Paraná-
Paraguay, and the São Francisco Rivers. The Cerrado
vegetation is a mix of grasses, woody plants, fire-
resistant twisted trees with thick, corky bark,
sclerophyllous leaves, and vibrant flowers. The
Cerrado originally covered a region equivalent to
the combined areas of California, Nevada, Utah,
Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, spanning a
geographic area from 24° S to 4° S latitudes. The
ecoregion varies in elevation (300–1800 m) with
annual precipitation between 900 and 1800 mm
and an average monthly temperature of 21°C
(Ab’Saber 1971; Goedert 1983, 407; EMBRAPA-
Cerrados 1998). The climate is punctuated by a
severe dry season that ranges between three and
five months from May to September. The Brazilian
Cerrado is a repository of biological diversity,
boasting an estimated 160 000 species of plants,
mammals, fungi and notably diverse flora, showing
high specificity of native angiosperms (Alho 1981;
Silberbauer Gottsberger and Gottsberger 1984;
Mares et al. 1986; Redford and Fonseca 1986; Ratter
et al. 1997, 226; Myers et al. 2000; Silva and Bates
2002).
Canopy cover, type of plant cover and species
composition distinguish the Cerrado’s diverse
vegetation structure. Cerrado vegetation varies in
height and density. The vegetation ranges from an
open herbaceous land cover to orchard-like tree–
scrub savanna or almost a closed canopy of 12–15
m. In addition to the savanna vegetation and forest
 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna 101

formations, seasonal savannas are present to a lesser expedition (Askew et al. 1970; Brown et al. 1970,
extent in the Cerrado region. Land covers studied 371–2). The study region’s northern reach forms
in the paper are based upon types found in the the transition belt between the savanna and the dry
study region. They include the following: (1) Cerrado tropical forest.
(sensu lato), (2) seasonally inundated savannas, and Private agricultural colonization has played an
(3) forests (Ribeiro and Walter 1998; Oliveira Filho integral role in the conversion of the Cerrado to
and Ratter 2002). Three general land covers can be agriculture (Jepson 2003). Eastern Mato Grosso is a
further classified into subtypes. Cerrado sensu latu relatively older agro-pastoral region in which local
is most common in the ecoregion, and it can be farmers practiced intensive land uses common in
subdivided into three types: campo cerrados (grasses); other Cerrado areas. Beginning in the early 1970s,
cerrado sensu stricto (savanna); and cerradão more than 800 families from southern Brazil joined
(woodland). Seasonal savannas can be further a colonization cooperative or purchased land from
subdivided into parque do cerrado (parkland) and a private colonization firm to settle in eastern Mato
vereda. Forest formations, including riparian and Grosso’s Cerrado. These colonization projects initi-
mesophytic, represent the third broad land cover in ated almost a decade of migration from southern
the Cerrado and study region. These landscape Brazilian states to municipalities of Canarana, Água
vegetation differences within the biome are deter- Boa, and Nova Xavantina (Figure 2). By 1990,
mined by fire, plant-available moisture and private colonization initiatives had sold more than
nutrients in soils, and topography (Coutinho 1977 460 040 ha in 25 projects in the region’s Cerrado.
1982; Goodland and Pollard 1973; Oliveira-Filho Major agricultural activities at present include
et al. 1989; Furley 1994 1996 1999; Kaufman et al. cattle ranching and annual cultivation of upland
1994; Bilbao et al. 1996; Ratter et al. 1997, 225; rice, maize and soybeans.
Mistry 1998, 430–2; 2000).
Concern for biological diversity loss due to rapid
land conversion drives the Cerrado environmental
conservation agenda. The Cerrado ranks twelfth on
a list of global ‘hot spot’ areas, ecoregions that
contain high levels of plant endemism and are
‘under threat’ (Mittermeier et al. 1998, 519). The
‘hot spot’ designation shapes the actions of various
environmental organizations, in particular Conser-
vation International (CI), which develops and
supports conservation priority setting workshops
(Government of Brasil and FUNATURA 1999;
Cavalcanti and Joly 2002; CI 2003). National and
global partnerships for Cerrado conservation also
have focused on improving national and state parks
or encouraged local, sustainable uses of the region’s
biodiversity. For example, the Brazilian environ-
mental organization FUNATURA along with the
Global Environmental Facility (GEF) are expanding
protected areas near major Cerrado parks through
the establishment of private national heritage reserves
(Reservas Particulares do Patromônio Nacional,
RPPNs) (Lake 1999; GEF 2003; FUNATURA
2003). Moreover, FUNATURA and The Nature
Conservancy jointly manage the 84 000 ha Grande
Sertão Veredas National Park, a conservation unit
established under Brazil’s only debt-for-nature
swap.
The case study is located in eastern Mato Grosso
state, a region located on the low-relief Serra do
Roncador Plateau between the Xingu River, a
southern Amazon tributary, and the Araguaia River.
The region’s vegetation cover is typical of the
Cerrado. It ranges from campo limpo to cerradão,
as described in a set of reports from a geographical Figure 2 Eastern Mato Grosso and area of interest
102 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
Table 1 Landsat data
Mission Sensor Date Path/row
LANDSAT 5 TM 26 September 1986 224/69
LANDSAT 5 TM 17 August 1992 224/69
LANDSAT 7 +ETM 21 August 1999 224/69
Remote sensing methods
Data processing
Three Landsat high-spatial resolution satellite images
were acquired for the years 1986, 1992 and 1999.
An area of interest (3896 km2) was extracted from
the images and examined in a change detection
analysis (Figure 2). The area of interest (AOI)
covers major areas of settlement and colonization.
Two Landsat images and one Landsat +ETM image,
all of which have a spatial resolution of 30 m ×
30 m, were obtained at a six- and seven-year interval,
respectively. Near-anniversary date images, which
cover one Landsat scene, minimize the effects of
seasonal phenological differences that may cause
spurious change to be detected in the analysis. To
reduce scene-to-scene variability, all ground data
were collected during the dry season, between
August and September (Table 1).
Geometric and radiometric corrections followed
standard processing methods (Jensen 1996). Landsat
data (bands 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7) were geometrically
rectified to the UTM (22-S) coordinate system to
create an objective spatial basis for comparing the
three scenes. The 1999 scene was resampled to a
common coordinate system using over 100 ground
control points distributed throughout the image and
obtained by a global positioning system, a Garmin
GPS base station system with an accuracy of between
5 and 10 m. All subsequent scenes were rectified
to the UTM coordinates by resampling each to the
corresponding 1999 image. The AOI was extracted
from the data in the resampling process. Radiometric
corrections took into account the sensor parameters
for 1999 +ETM to transform the original digital
numbers into surface reflectance measurements. The
1999 image, which was corrected for the sensor
gain and bias, was used as a reference image to
reduce the effects of sensor difference when
comparing the 1986 and 1992 images. The output
images and the reference image were classified and
subsequently used in change detection process.
Unsupervised classification
Landsat bands 3 (visible red), 4 (near infrared) and
5 (mid-infrared) were selected from the original
data set to reduce the processing time, data volume,
and band data correlation. Preliminary data explor-
ation was conducted using bands 2, 3 and 4. The
conclusion was that the chosen bands better distin-
guished land covers of interest. Bands 3, 4, and 5
combined to make a composite 8-bit image that was
the input for the self-iterative module (ISOCLUST)
for cluster seeding. The iterative process follows
the maximum likelihood procedure to assign each
pixel to 19 clusters. Once the clusters were estab-
lished, land covers were identified, assigned, and
aggregated into three basic classes.
1 Cerrado. This class includes cerrado sensu latu
(campos cerrados, cerrado sensu strito, and cerradão)
and seasonal savannas.
2 Forests. This class includes seasonally dry tropical
and riparian forests.
3 Agro-pastoral. This class includes all pastures and
agricultural fields.
Based upon knowledge of the region’s environ-
ment, ground data and general reflectances, land
covers were assigned to clusters. Problems arose in
the classification process whereby burnt Cerrado
and water were difficult to distinguish in the cluster
process. Two categories were aggregated into the
Cerrado class, as the overall area of water was very
limited and would not significantly alter the final
analysis of change. This is evident in the final
accuracy assessment table. Areas of burnt Cerrado
were concluded not to be agricultural fields, and
thus could be aggregated logically into the Cerrado
land cover. Spectral reflectances of areas, satellite
data before and after the date of burning, and field
knowledge of the region indicate that this land area
was not cultivated for that time period; thus, the
burning scars represented wildfire in the Cerrado,
not agricultural fire used for cropland or pasture
renewal.
Ground data were used to assess the accuracy
of the unsupervised classification. Between July
and August 2000, detailed ground observations
of vegetation cover were collected to assess the
accuracy of unsupervised land-cover classification
on the 1999 TM image. Over 160 land-cover
polygons provided at least 30 pixels for 16 land
classes. Land classes included bare soil, millet
fields, no-till agriculture, various types of pasture,
relative densities of Cerrado vegetation and forest
formations. No attempt to carry out statistically
based sampling was made. Rather, all ground
observations were made based on access to land
and roads and permission to enter private property.
All field observations were geo-referenced with a
global positioning system, a Garmin GPS hand-held
and base station system with accuracy between 5
and 10 m. Polygons were mapped and converted
 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna 103

Table 2 Contingency table and accuracy indicators for classified image (1999)

Ground truth data

Cerrado Agro-pastoral Water Total pixels Accuracy (%)

Cerrado 2294 19 93 2406 95.34

Forest 21 0 0 21 0
Agro-pastoral 106 4238 0 4344 97.56
Total 2421 4257 93 6771
Class accuracy 94.75 99.55 0
Overall accuracy 96.47
Overall kappa 92.48

to a raster file. This file was compared with the Table 3 Land-cover change matrices, 1986 –92 and 1992–9
unsupervised classification for the 1999 image to
assess classification accuracy. 1992
A contingency table, which summarizes the
accuracy of the initial classification to ground data, Cerrado Non-Cerrado
established overall accuracy and Kappa Index of
Agreement for the 1999 image (Table 2). Observa- 1986 Cerrado Area (km2) 1274 635.32
tions were recorded as the number of pixels Non-Cerrado Area (km2) 526.10 1460.96
selected for three classes (Cerrado, Agro-pastoral
and Water). Forest was not identified during the 1999
ground data exercise due to lack of access to these
land covers during fieldwork. Riparian areas were Cerrado Non-Cerrado
densely vegetated and difficult to access; forest
tracts also were inaccessible by paths or roads. 1992 Cerrado Area (km2) 1096.31 703.79
However, the spectral reflectances of forest and Non-Cerrado Area (km2) 426.16 1668.12
riparian vegetation are clearly distinguished from
Cerrado and agro-pastoral areas. Thus, this lack of
ground truth information was not detrimental to the
overall classification process.
Land-cover change detection
The overall accuracy for the 1999 unsupervised
classification exceeded minimum targets of an
Analysis
overall accuracy of 85% with no class less than
70% accurate (Congalton 1991; Foody 2002). Change detection for this study was developed in
The Kappa Index of Agreement, which takes into two stages. First, land-cover change analysis used
consideration chance agreement, also was above Boolean or binary land cover maps (i.e. Cerrado–
the minimum 85% threshold. The important error Non-Cerrado) to compare a set of two successive
to note is of commission. Forested areas were not classified images, 1988–92 and 1992–9. Post-
identified in the ground data, but some forest classification change detection produced a change
areas were classified for Cerrado. This can be detection matrix (Table 3). The change detection
explained by the confusion of very dense cerradão matrix identifies, pixel by pixel, detailed information
with forest. Accuracy of the unsupervised classifi- about the land-cover status, and it indicates land-
cations for 1986 and 1992 could not be assessed cover changes (i.e. from Cerrado to agro-pastoral)
as the necessary ground data, such as aerial for the same geographic area at the highest resolu-
photos, either do not exist or were unavailable at tion allowed for this database. One major advantage
the time of analysis. Although no ground data of this method is that this ‘from–to’ is directional
were available for those dates, standard image information, but the analyst always needs to
processing protocol was followed for radiometric consider that the process is dependent upon the
rectification to guarantee that the change detected accuracy of land-cover classification (Jensen 1996,
in the image was not due to simple radiometric 269). In this case, the accuracy was greater than
noise or differences in the sensor’s gains or biases. minimum standards for classification (Table 2).
104 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna

Table 4 Cerrado land-cover sequences between 1986 and 1999 (area and proportion of total affected by each trajectory)

No. 1986 1992 1999 Description Proportion (%) km2

1 Non-Cerrado Non-Cerrado Non-Cerrado Stable forest or agro-pastoral 32.6 1270.96

2 Cerrado Non-Cerrado Non-Cerrado Older Cerrado clearing 10.19 397.16
3 Non-Cerrado Cerrado Non-Cerrado Clearing in Cerrado regrowth 7.3 284.20
4 Cerrado Cerrado Non-Cerrado Recent Cerrado clearing 10.77 419.59
5 Non-Cerrado Non-Cerrado Cerrado Recent Cerrado regrowth 4.89 190
6 Cerrado Non-Cerrado Cerrado Cerrado regrowth in previously cleared area 6.11 238.16
7 Non-Cerrado Cerrado Cerrado Older Cerrado regrowth 6.21 241.90
8 Cerrado Cerrado Cerrado Stable Cerrado 21.93 854.41
Total 100 3896.38

Table 5 Estimated area of Cerrado, total (gross) converted area, and conversion rate in area of interest, 1986–99

No. Estimated area Total Cerrado Converted area Annual conversion

Year years of Cerrado (km2) converted (km2) converted (%) per year (km2) rate (% per year)

1986 1909.32
6 634.69 33.24 105.78 5.54
1992 1272.74
7 703.80 36.86 100.54 5.26
1999 1096.32
Overall 13 1338.49 70.10 102.96 5.39

The second step established a multiple sequence
of land-cover change that revealed pixel-by-pixel
shifts in land cover over the entire 13-year period
(1986–1992–1999). This approach discloses shifts
between different land covers for the same
geographic area during the two observation years
(Mertens and Lambin 2000). To achieve this result,
the binary maps (Cerrado –Non-Cerrado) for each
set of observation years were cross classified.
These results were again cross classified to create
all eight possible land-cover sequences. Total land
area and proportion of land area for each land-
cover trajectory were calculated (Table 4). Eight
possible land-cover sequences are represented on
the maps as separate coverages. Two classes of the
final table represent stable land covers (stable
forest or agro-pastoral = 1; stable Cerrado = 8). The
other classes define a series of possible conversion
scenarios during the 13-year period. It is also
important to note that the ecological condition of
Cerrado regrowth after agro-pastoral land uses is
unknown as there are no studies on this topic in
the broader biogeographical or botanical literature.
The eight land-cover sequences are
1 Stable forest or agropastoral land cover. No change
detected.
2 Older Cerrado clearing. This sequence represents
a shift from Cerrado in 1986 to non-Cerrado by
1992.
3 Clearing in Cerrado regrowth. Previously cleared
Cerrado experienced regrowth between 1986 and
1992; the area was again cleared between 1992 and
1999.
4 Recent Cerrado clearing. Cerrado cleared only
between 1992 and 1999.
5 Recent Cerrado regrowth. Pre-1986 cleared areas
were allowed to regenerate between 1992 and
1999.
6 Cerrado regrowth in recently cleared area. Cerrado
that experienced clearing between 1986 and 1992;
the area was allowed to regenerate between 1992
and 1999.
7 Cerrado regrowth in pre-1986 cleared area. Cerrado
regeneration on areas cleared before 1986.
8 Stable Cerrado land cover. No change detected in
Cerrado change during the time series.
Results
Change detection matrices for the successive years
1986–92 and 1992–9 reveal an accumulated or
gross reduction of 1986 Cerrado by 1338.49 km2,
 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
Table 6 Estimated area of Cerrado, net converted area, and conversion rate in area of interest, 1986 –99
No. Estimated area Net converted
Year years of Cerrado (km2) (km2)
1986 1909.32
6 109.22
1992 1272.74
7 275.63
1999 1096.32
Overall 13 384.85
but only a net reduction of 384.85 km2. This
indicates relatively high levels of vegetation regen-
eration over the 13-year period. Table 5 summar-
izes the total or accumulated Cerrado land-cover
change between 1986 and 1999. Total Cerrado
loss measured for this area of interest between
1986 and 1999 is 70.10%. The rate of total or
gross annual Cerrado loss, that is, the rate of
Cerrado converted without consideration of regen-
eration, is 102.96 km2 per year or 5.39%. Over the
observation years, there is a slight decrease in area
converted per year, from 105.78 to 100.54 km2 per
year. Between 1986 and 1992, the annual conver-
sion rate is 5.54%, while between 1992 and 1999
the annual conversion rate declined to 5.26%.
Vegetation regeneration represents an important
contribution to overall land cover between 1986
and 1999 (Table 6). Overall net loss of Cerrado
vegetation is 20.15% (384.85 km2), or 50% less
than total Cerrado loss, as it accounts for the differ-
ence between Cerrado area converted and the area
of Cerrado regeneration. That is, 50% of Cerrado
converted during some of this period of time
experienced regeneration. While the total annual
rate of Cerrado loss decreases over time, the net
annual rate of conversion experiences a rise
between 1992 and 1999. During the first time
period (1986–92), net Cerrado loss is 0.95% and
during the second time period it rises to 1.97%.
Change detection matrices permit the description
of complex landscape mosaics and mixtures of
land cover (Table 4). Land classes follow multiple
time sequences and are often reversible over more
than two observation years. Over 45% (1771 km2)
of the total land area shifted at least once and
13.4% (522.36 km2) of the total land area shifted
land cover twice. Rates of conversion from tropical
savanna to agro-pastoral land covers are generally
stable over the 13-year period. Older Cerrado
clearing (between 1986 and 1992) represents
10.19% (397.16 km2) and recent Cerrado clearing
(between 1992 and 1999) is 10.77% (419.59 km2).
Stable or continuously Cerrado areas only account
105
Cerrado Converted area Annual conversion
converted (%) per year (km2) rate (%)
5.72 18.18 0.95
14.43 39.32 1.97
20.15 29.60 1.55
for 21.93% (854.41 km2) while stable forests account
for 3.3% (128.25 km2) and stable agro-pastoral
accounts for 29.2% (1142.71 km2) of total land
cover between 1986 and 1999.
Discussion
Rapid Cerrado disappearance is attributed to modern
agro-pastoral land uses, particularly soybean
production and cattle ranching. Most explanations of
environmental change broadly generalize the process
as a unidirectional loss of vegetation to agricultural
land uses. As reviewed in the introduction,
estimates of Cerrado vegetation loss speculate that
modern agro-pastoral expansion has converted up
to 80% of the savanna and that the pace of change
is increasing. As a first attempt to quantify anthro-
pogenic Cerrado land-cover change using high-
resolution data for a sample region, this study
indicates high levels of vegetation regeneration,
although overall Cerrado loss is still high in the
long-occupied Cerrado agro-pastoral region. The
following discussion will review the implications of
the evidence for vegetation regeneration, land-cover
dynamism and land-use intensification, paying
particular attention to spatial scale and research
methods. The discussion concludes that Cerrado
land-cover change studied at a higher resolution and
larger scales (smaller area) is required to represent
more effectively the complexity of land conversion
to better inform policymakers.
Vegetation regeneration: scalar implications
The implications of vegetation regeneration for
understanding Cerrado land cover vary according
to geographical scale. First, at the landscape scale,
data from this analysis indicate large areas of
regenerated and fragmented undisturbed Cerrado,
vegetation that has not been under agro-pastoral
land uses. Most revealing is that over 50% of land
cover identified as Cerrado was ‘reversible’, repre-
senting some form of secondary vegetation land
106 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
cover. Currently there are few published studies on
the regeneration capacity of Cerrado environments
after land clearing for agro-pastoral uses. The
exceptions are Durigan et al. (1998) and research
on Cerrado regeneration after Eucalyptus (Eucalyp-
tus citriodora) plantations in western São Paulo
state (Durigan et al. 1997). Overall, a lack of
detailed scientific information on regeneration
limits the broader claims about ecological integrity
of secondary stands that could be drawn from
evidence of Cerrado regrowth. However, the
relatively high levels of regrowth broadly suggests
resiliency rather than vulnerability after agro-
pastoral land uses have ceased. In addition, many
Cerrado fragments that have not been ploughed
under for agro-pastoral land uses still persist,
despite continued developments of the agricultural
economy.
The documented presence of remaining Cerrado
fragments begs the question of their influence on
biotic and abiotic processes. First, biodiversity
assessments, which are of particular concern to
Cerrado ecologists, would be better served by
considering the ecological implications of patches,
fragment connectivity, corridors and edge char-
acteristics of secondary growth and Cerrado
fragments (Dale et al. 1994; Forman 1995; Dauber
et al. forthcoming). Second, by focusing on regen-
erated fragments in the complex cultivated Cerrado
landscape, future studies may better assess their
ecological integrity rather than rely on the theoret-
ical assessment of biodiversity loss, which is based
solely on global land-cover change estimates
prevalent in the environmental literature (WWF-
Brasil 2000; Myers et al. 2000; Mittermeier et al.
2000; Wood et al. 2000). Once secondary growth
is taken into account, more precise accounts may
be made of how the region’s habitat fragmentation
and regeneration affect biodiversity, such as
displacement of native grasses (Pivello et al. 1999)
and wildlife (Tubelis and Cavalcanti 2000; Marini
2001; Bates 2002). Consequently, environmental
policies based on observed patterns are better
suited to intervene more precisely rather than
simply ‘salvaging’ (Colchester 1997) large territor-
ies for Cerrado preservation and leaving remaining
Cerrado ‘sacrificed’ for agro-pastoral development.
Evidence of regeneration also raises new
questions about society–nature interactions within
the entire ecoregion. Previous characterizations of
Cerrado conversion simply describe the capacity of
modern agricultural systems to ravage the natural
landscape, driven as they are by profit and
dominated by large-scale soybean ‘monoculture’
and cattle ranches (Alho and Souza Martins 1995;
Ratter et al. 1997; Branford and Freris 2000; WWF-
Brasil 2000; Fearnside 2001). One would expect
this pattern of land use to be reflected in the satel-
lite data. Yet, in eastern Mato Grosso, a region that
has undergone considerable agricultural develop-
ment since the early 1970s, land-cover dynamics
reflect a different trajectory, one that appears more
complex and dynamic than simply large-scale
farming and ranching. Moreover, looking at rates of
Cerrado loss suggests an intensification of land use;
land, which was allowed to regenerate previously,
is being renovated for continued cultivation or
pasture. Both of these findings require an investiga-
tion of the precise causes of land-use change at the
scale of individual land manager (McCracken et al.
1999; Perz and Walker 2002; Southworth and
Tucker 2001). For example, studies of fire as an
ecological transformation factor or a maintenance
tool and its role at different moments in the land-
cover change trajectory, may be better understood
at the landscape scale (Eva and Lambin 2000, 773).
This would focus consideration of land-cover
change on the decision-making processes behind
the patterns of regeneration, loss and fragmentation
at the landscape scale, rather than on vague
‘drivers’ of global capitalism (Klink et al. 1993;
WWF-Brasil 2000). Environmental policy prescrip-
tions that follow from individual land-resource user
dynamics, those that capitalize on the preservation
of Cerrado fragments and regeneration, may offer
alternative conservation policies to current top-
down, park-oriented efforts (Brannstrom 2001).
These may include ‘productive conservation’ initia-
tives (Hall 1997), watershed management approaches
(Brannstrom 2001), and more effective incentives
for RPPNs (Lake 1999).
Finally, the presence of vegetation regeneration
calls into question the aggregate estimates of
Cerrado conversion or, perhaps, explains the diver-
gent speculation reviewed in the introduction.
Between 1986 and 1999, the case study area has
experienced gross or aggregate vegetation loss,
which approaches the worst-case estimates of
Cerrado conversion. However, the observed land-
cover complexity illustrates significant processes of
vegetation regrowth which significantly changes
the net vegetation loss estimates.
The importance of quantifying the reversibility of
land covers, identifying complex trajectories, and
assessing the landscape fragmentation has impor-
tant implications for broader global environmental
change concerns of ecological services, not just
biodiversity (Woodwell 2002). An accurate assess-
ment of secondary vegetation growth better
specifies the contribution of Cerrado land conver-
sion and agro-pastoral land uses to overall carbon
emissions and climate change (Henderson-Sellers
and McGuffie 1995), such as carbon sequestration
(Miranda and Miranda 2000; Vourlitis et al. 2001),
 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
greenhouse gas emissions (Kirchhoff and Avala 1996;
Lardy et al. 2002; Pinto et al. 2002), and biomass
burning (Ferek et al. 1998; Kisselle et al. 2002).
The irony is that the type of investigation outlined
above has been carried out for years in the humid
forests of Amazônia (Moran et al. 1994 1996;
Fearnside 1996 1997; Moran and Brondizio 1998;
Steininger 1996 2000; Zarin et al. 2001; Lucas et al.
2002); perhaps, it is time for similar approaches to
be employed for that biome’s southern neighbour.
Studying Cerrado land-cover change: remote sensing
and census data
Studies of Cerrado land-cover change have only
begun to assess the effects of post-1970 human
impacts. Primary data used to explore these trans-
formations include remote sensing and agricultural
census material. Both data sets offer important
insights into the process of Cerrado conversion.
However, findings on vegetation regeneration support
a methodological re-evaluation. In particular, the
evidence for vegetation regeneration highlights
analytical problems associated with studies that
employ a subjective land-cover classification system,
single change detection matrix, and agricultural
census data, all of which contribute to an environ-
mental ‘zero-sum’ discourse of Cerrado land-cover
change and represent the biome as disappearing
‘grain by grain’. Indeed, the reliance on ‘irrevers-
ible’ land-cover change estimates may overestimate
Cerrado loss because they are unable to identify
vegetation regeneration. This would not be the first
time that local, quantitative methods have corrected
or reframed (mis)readings of the tropical savanna
landscapes (Fairhead and Leach 1996 1998; Bassett
and Zueli 2000).
More broadly, a critique of remote sensing
methods is useful to evaluate the limited number of
available Cerrado land-cover change studies. As
one geographer observes, the categories of analysis
which a remote sensing practitioner employs to
represent vegetation are not impartial tools to
measure land-cover change; rather, in many
instances, they ‘fix’ certain interpretations of the
environment, interpretations that are either political
or based on subjective assumptions about ‘nature’
(Robbins 2001). My interest is not to go as far as
Robbins’s post-structuralist position that all land-
cover classifications are political. However, I agree
that the act of naming and describing land covers
must be qualitatively as well as quantitatively inter-
rogated. This, in turn, reveals how subjective views
of human–society interaction shape certain interpret-
ive practices in remote sensing analysis.
Mantovani and Pereira (1998) is the only publicly
available study using satellite data to assess Cerrado
107
conversion to agro-pastoral activities. The study
compares a digitized vegetation map (1:5 000 000)
to 144 Landsat images from 1988 to 1993.1 In this
study, the perceived impact of human activity
defines land-cover categories. The authors use a
classification system that includes categories such
as ‘not Cerrado’, ‘Cerrado not anthropogenically
altered’, ‘Cerrado anthropogenically altered’, and
‘Cerrado strongly anthropogenically altered’. There
are two problems with Mantovani and Pereira’s
categorization. First, the study does not provide a
clear discussion of how categories are developed
or how ground data are collected to test coverage
accuracy. Second, their assumptions about nature
underpin the categories, reinforcing the notion of
land cover ‘irreversibility’. That is, the level of
‘naturalness’ is the defining feature of each land
cover rather than its physical characteristics. Not
only is this definition highly subjective, but it
forecloses the possibility that secondary growth is a
land cover worth assessing in an overall project to
quantify vegetation change. Similar arguments can
be applied to how Mantovani and Pereira construct
the land-cover change matrix. Simply comparing
two data sets, one an ancillary small (cartographic)
scale vegetation map representing a baseline2 and
the other a set of Landsat data, to identify biome
‘change’, also precludes the study of vegetation
regeneration or land-cover dynamics. Despite these
serious methodological shortcomings, the catego-
ries used by Mantovani and Pereira are ‘fixed’ in
the quantification of Cerrado land-cover change
and these estimates are reproduced as ‘objective’
in multiple publications to bolster the view of a
‘disappearing biome’ (Government of Brasil and
FUNATURA 1999; WWF-Brasil 2000; Joly et al.
1999).
Agricultural census data have provided another
means to examine how the Cerrado has been trans-
formed over the past 30 years. Two high-profile
publications use municipal level (county-level)
agricultural production data to estimate the pattern
and extent of land uses central to Cerrado land-
cover change biodiversity loss (Alho and Souza
Martins 1995; WWF-Brasil 2000). In both cases,
land-cover change is equated with annual cropping
area and artificial pasture. Thus, agricultural
production is a proxy measure for land-cover
change. That is, for every hectare of production, 1
ha of Cerrado habitat is lost. The cumulative effect
is interpreted as a loss in biodiversity.
Observed vegetation regrowth, however, under-
mines the use of agricultural census data for
estimating land-cover change. First, agricultural
census data do not offer any means to represent
vegetation regeneration. Second, increases in
annual cropping or pasture are represented as
108 Reconsidering land-cover change in the Brazilian savanna
permanently replacing original vegetation even
though they may not necessarily cause Cerrado
loss (Angelsen and Kaimowitz 2001, 3). There are
other drawbacks to using agricultural census data
to estimate land-cover change. Besides possible
problems in obtaining accurate agricultural census
data for these relatively remote regions, the proxy
data only provide ‘snapshot’ views of the land
cover. These cannot accurately represent the
changes of land uses for a specific area smaller
than a county. They cannot capture the dynamic
that one field, for example, undergoes multiple
changes over time and different uses – from fallow
to pasture to annual crops. In conclusion, agricul-
tural census data should not substitute measures of
land-cover change with easily available satellite data.
Conclusion
Is the Cerrado disappearing? The Cerrado has
undergone tremendous transformation over the last
three decades, from the isolated savanna described
in the expedition published in The Geographical
Journal to the global agricultural breadbasket of
today. However, assessments that one of Brazil’s
largest ecoregions is ‘losing space’ misrepresent
and oversimplify the land-cover change dynamics
on the ground. Results using high-resolution digital
satellite data of land cover over multiple time
periods indicate significant loss of original vegeta-
tion as well as high levels of regeneration, suggest-
ing that Cerrado vegetation may be more resilient
to human impacts than the catastrophic estimations
suggest. A shift in the focus of current studies of
Cerrado change to one of the landscape and meso-
scale is necessary to assess more reliably the
complexity of human impacts. Transparent methods
of assessment that focus on high-resolution data
analysis, employ multiple-year change detection
methods, and provide clear land-cover classifica-
tions are necessary to shift from aggregate
perceived ‘loss’ to vegetation and landscape
dynamics. This shift will allow for a conceptual
remapping of human–environment relations in the
Cerrado that includes anthropogenic landscapes
and vegetation regrowth in the scenario of environ-
mental conservation. Rather than focusing on the
disappearance of the Cerrado, a more insightful
question could be posed: why are areas of the
cultivated Cerrado landscapes preserved or allowed
to regenerate? The answer to this question opens
analytical space to explore complex changes in
the landscape, particularly, the importance of
secondary growth. A clear understanding of these
processes could provide a better scientific basis
that may focus future environmental policy
initiatives.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to the National Science Foundation
(Geography and Regional Science Program, Disser-
tation Improvement Grant, SBR-99485), the Organ-
ization of American States (PRA-1328) and the
Latin American Center at the University of Califor-
nia, Los Angeles for funding the purchase of satel-
lite data and supporting the in-country travel and
fieldwork. I would like to thank Donald Sawyer at
the Instituto de Sociedade População e Natureza
(ISPN, Institute of Society, Population and Nature)
in Brasília, Hugo de Souza Dias, Otávio de Souza
Dias, Christian Brannstrom, and Thomas Gillespie.
Notes
1 Other remote sensing studies of the Cerrado evaluate land-
cover changes in parks (Almeida-Filho and Vitorello 1997) or
characterize agricultural settlements (Passos 1998).
2 See Brannstrom (2002) for a critique of the Brazilian Geo-
graphy and Statistics Institute (IBGE) vegetation map as an
empirical baseline.
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