Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte may share 

Donald Trump’s disruptive

tactics and strongman style, but that doesn’t mean the two are about to form a
lasting bond.

The Philippine leader has appeared to enjoy being compared to the U.S.
President-elect and was dubbed the “Trump of Asia” on the campaign trail.
Both have a tendency to blow up at reporters over questions about their
policies, and have made lewd remarks about women.

Both also came to power with populist policies on a wave of frustration with
established political parties and a sense that life for ordinary people had
gotten worse amid widening income inequality, a struggle for jobs, and rising
crime.

Still, there are areas of potential conflict. If Trump follows through on some of
his campaign promises it could damage the Philippine economy. And Duterte,
who was mayor of the city of Davao for decades before he ran for the
presidency, has made clear he intends to continue his efforts to limit his
country’s economic and military reliance on the U.S., opening up a greater role
for China.

“They seem to have the same frame of mind," said Lauro Baja, a former

Foreign Affairs undersecretary who served as the Philippine permanent
representative to the United Nations under ex-President Gloria Arroyo,
speaking of the two leaders. “But again, it will depend on whether President
Trump is going to be the same as candidate Trump.”
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A Trump administration curb on foreign workers could hit remittances from Filipinos in the
U.S., while efforts to limit U.S. businesses from exporting jobs might affect another Philippines
growth industry in call centers and other forms of business process outsourcing. A U.S. show of
force in the South China Sea dictated by a hawkish Secretary of State could complicate Duterte’s
attempt to hose down tensions over the disputed waters with China.

Read more: A story on Asia’s efforts to decode Trump on future of Obama’s

policies

While Duterte’s predecessor Benigno Aquino strengthened defense ties with

the U.S. and opposed China’s expansion in the South China Sea, Duterte has
openly courted China with a state visit to Beijing that reaped investment
promises worth $24 billion.
Duterte has also downplayed a July court ruling rebuffing China’s claims to
more than 80 percent of the South China Sea, emphasizing his willingness to
resume direct talks over the issue. At the same time he has distanced the
Philippines from the U.S., telling President Barack Obama to "go to hell" and
vowing to limit joint military exercises.

The U.S., which governed the Philippines for decades from the late 19th
century, has been a longstanding military ally.

Stark Risks

“Duterte’s efforts not to start off on the wrong foot will be welcomed, as the
risks associated with a Trump presidency are stark for the Philippines,"
said Eufracia Taylor, Asia analyst at risk advisory company Verisk Maplecroft.
“If Trump chooses to make bilateral trade difficult for the Philippines, it will
certainly hit the economy as well as the public’s broadly pro-U.S. sentiment."

Speaking to reporters late Tuesday evening, Duterte said he trusted Trump’s

judgment and that he would be “fair” in treating illegal immigrants.

“I can always be a friend to anybody, especially to a president, a chief

executive,” Duterte said. “He hasn’t called me out in the campaign about
human rights,” he added, a reference to Duterte’s deadly war on illegal drugs
that has seen thousands of drug suspects killed in the Philippines since he
came to power.

Days before the U.S. elections, Duterte appointed a Trump associate -- Jose
E.B. Antonio -- as special envoy to America. Antonio is chairman and chief
executive officer of Century Properties Group, which built the Trump Tower
Manila under a licensing agreement. Shares in the company climbed to their
highest-level in a year following Trump’s election win.

Diversifying Friendship

At the same time, Duterte’s Economic Secretary Ernesto Pernia said the
president’s recent pivot to China had been based on his assumption that
Trump would win. “Instead of depending on the U.S. to a great extent, we are
now diversifying our friendship, so you don’t crash when the country you
depend on is in trouble," he said.

“Some fears are founded on Donald Trump’s pronouncements during the

campaign period about his stance that he will protect American jobs and doing
away with outsourcing is something he’d like to introduce," said Julius
Guevara, director for valuation and advisory at Colliers International in
Manila.

In the end, the Philippines will have to make some adjustments on its
economic, security and diplomatic strategies if Trump sticks to his campaign
pledges, said former ambassador Baja. If Trump pulls back from the U.S. navy
presence in the South China Sea it could mean Duterte loses one chip in any
negotiations with China, Baja said.

“Whether we like it or not, we can only be as aggressive and assertive in

pursuing what we got from the arbitral panel if we have somebody big behind
us.”

While sitting around the full debate prep room in Manila with my friend, one of
the most intelligent, experienced and qualified presidential candidates the
Philippines has ever seen — Interior Secretary Mar Roxas — most scoffed at
the possibility that Mayor Rodrigo Duterte could win.

Certainly, we thought, despite the entertaining reality show aspects of his

campaign, the good people of the Philippines would not vote for someone who
would routinely denigrate women, lash out at the Pope in an overwhelmingly
Catholic country, hire hit men to kill thousands of suspected drug dealers on
the streets of his town without any due process and even joke about wanting
to join in on the rape of a beautiful foreign journalist who was murdered in his
town.

Yet on May 9, 2016, the man called “The Filipino Trump”, Rodrigo Duterte,
destroyed Secretary Roxas and three other candidates to easily win the
presidency of the Philippines.

“Glorious promises delivered with supreme confidence will always trump logic
and rationality.”

As a political communication strategist who had worked on many campaigns

around the world, the astounding support of someone actually considered
“insane” by the elite in Manila and elsewhere, was not that hard to
understand. Mayor Duterte was “strong”, he made politics simple, he made
“change” simple and he made promises that everyone, no matter their
economic status or their level of education, could understand and be moved
by.

Rodrigo Duterte promised, and still promises, to make the Philippines great
again. With powerful conviction he promised his people that he would end
crime in six months, would provide great jobs for everyone and would stand
up to all the foreign countries that were bringing The Philippines down.

Mar, and the other candidates couldn’t make those direct and simple
promises. They believed them to be impossible and tried to explain that the
simple and tantalizing solutions offered by Duterte were not legal, not
plausible and would never work.

The Filipino people did not care. They had found someone who was “strong”,
defied “the system”, disdained political correctness, shot from the hip with
enormous candor, had conviction, would not back down, played by his own
rules and made promises with such a seductive level of confidence, it was
inconceivable that their lives would not improve . . . if only this one man
became the leader of their country.

Watching Yale Law School superstar Hillary Clinton and her team try to battle
“The American Duterte” reminds me of almost every meeting and strategy
session we had in Manila and that totally helpless feeling of seeing someone
considered significantly “less qualified” completely outfox and out campaign
the best and the brightest in a country of 100 million. Rodrigo Duterte clearly
didn’t understand the issues, or much care, but he understood something far,
far more important in politics. He understood the people and what they wanted
and that glorious promises delivered with supreme confidence will always
trump logic and rationality.
Donald Trump understands the people and what they want and is an even
more gifted communicator and salesman than President Duterte.