USINDIATIESUNDERTRUMP

Closerrelationsto
continue
Indiadoesnothavetoworryasthereisgoodbipartisan
supportthroughtheUSpoliticalsystemfordeveloping
strongrelations.
ByVivekKatju
TheUSelectionsaredoneanddusted.Defyingallexpectationsand
predictions, Donald Trump, the outsider, with all his many
personalityflaws,defeatedthequintessentialpoliticalinsider,Hillary
Clinton, to take the world's biggest political prize. Consequently, he
willtakeoverasthe45thPresidentoftheUnitedStatesonJanuary
20,2017.
What would Trump's presidency mean for India? The election was
not really contested on foreign policy issues. Its focus was on
America's divided society and stilltofullyrecover economy.
Ironically, Trump, a successful and flamboyant real estate tycoon
emerged as the voice of American dispossessed, especially non
collegegoingwhiteAmericanmales,whohavebeenpusheddownby
theprocessesofglobalisation.
These groups have seen their jobs leave US shores and have felt
threatened by the immigration of Hispanics and others into the US.
Trumpgaveexpressiontotheirangerandfrustrationandriledagainst
immigration especially from Mexico and the socalled unfair trade
deals. In as much as these issues concerned the other countries, he
broughtthemin.
InthecontextofUSjobloss,Trumpspokeofrejuvenatingdomestic
manufacturingindustry.AsChinahasbecometheworld'sfactory,it

isBeijingthathasmosttofeariftheUS,underTrump,seekstoroll
backfreetradeandbuildprotectionistwalls.Modi'sambitiousMake
inIndiaprogrammemayalsobeimpactedifTrumpseriouslywalks
this road. This is because protectionist policies will be infectious
wheretheUSwillgo,othercountrieswillfollow.
It is likely, however, that as he assumes presidency, Trump will
realise that election "jumlas" are no magic wand to handle the
pressuresandconstraintsofoffice.TheUSandChinahaveamutual
economic dependence that requires delicate handling lest the global
economywhichhasnotfullyrecoveredfromtheshocksof2008goes
intoatailspin.
Trump is aware of India's economic progress and the economic
opportunities that are now available to global entrepreneurs in the
openanddevelopingIndianeconomy.Hisrealestateenterpriseshave
lookedtoIndiatomakeinvestments.ItisdoubtfulthoughTrumphas
anindepthknowledgeofIndia.Thestrayremarksthathehasmade
duringthecampaigncannotbetakenseriouslyasanindicationofthe
policydirectionsthathewilltake.
The Senate and the Congress will continue to be controlled by the
Republicans. There is, however, no guarantee that Trump, as a
Republican, will have an easier time in pushing his foreign policy
agenda,asitisunveiledintime.Asanoutsidertothesystemwhois
deeply detested both for his personality and character as for his
agenda by many party politicos and Republican foreign policy
expertsTrumpwillnothaveaneasytimeonCapitolHill.
India does not have to worry on this score though. There is strong
bipartisan support through the US political system for developing
strong and comprehensive relations with India. This will continue.
This does not mean that there will be no friction on issues such as
immigrationthatmayadverselyimpactonIndiancompanies.Indian
diplomats will have to patiently navigate their way through the
initiatives that Trump will have to take to satisfy those who elected
him.
A Trump Administration will be open on the need to protect US
interests. His few remarks on foreign policy reveal his instincts.
Trumpsaid,"Iwanttotelltheworldcommunitythatwhilewewill
alwaysputAmerica'sinterestfirst,wedealfairlywitheveryone".Is
thisahintofproceedingunilaterally,ifneeded?
If so, there is bound to be turbulence in an interconnected world
becauseonissuesthatimpacttheplanetsuchasclimatechange,there
is no alternative but to take cooperative global action. It would be
wrongthoughtoprejudgeTrumpforofficebringssobrietyandinthe
hourofhisvictoryhehassoughtto"bindthewoundsofdivision"in
America.
Appointmentskey
TrumpmadelaudatorycommentsonHindusandaskedtheAmerican
Indian community for votes through the slogan, "abki baar Trump

sarkar". All this was in the context of the elections and cannot be
taken as indicative of his thinking on India. Perhaps the first
indications on his India approaches will be revealed through his
appointmentsofthosewhowillhandleUSIndiabilateralties.
This will take time, for his priority, as he sets up his foreign and
securitypolicyteam,willbeonthekeyareasofUSrelationsRussia,
China,theWestAsiancrisisandtheIslamicState(IS)menaceaswell
as trade and immigration issues. During the campaign, Republican
leader'sforeignanddefencepolicyadvisors,GeneralMikeFlynnand
GeneralKelloggshowedapreferenceformuscularapproaches.
Of these, Trump's approaches to China and West Asia will directly
impact on India's interests. He has spoken especially harshly on the
dangersposedbyIslamicradicalismandneedtoeffectivelydealwith
the IS. For this purpose, he has stressed the need to engage Russia
cooperatively.FlowingfromTrump'sthinkingonIslamicradicalism
has been his advocacy for severely restricting Muslim immigration
intotheUS.Intotality,hiscommentshavebeenviewedbyMuslims
all over as indicative of Trump being prejudiced against Islam and
Muslims.
How will all this exactly play out in US approaches towards
Afghanistan and Pakistan is not clear though in stray comments,
TrumphasshownanawarenessofPakistanbeingafragilestatewith
nuclear weapons. Will Trump allow Pakistan the same leeway in
Afghanistanashistwoimmediatepredecessorsdid?Indiawillhave
tocloselymonitorUSstepsinthisarea.
WillTrumpseektocontainChina'sriseorseekaccommodation?Itis
likelythataprocessofcontainmentonsomeissuessuchastheSouth
ChinaSeaandaccommodationoneconomicandcommercialmatters
willbeundertaken.IndiawillinevitablybepartofUSconsiderations.
Itwillhavetoplayitscardsshrewdly.
(ThewriterisretiredSecretary,MinistryofExternalAffairs)