Probably Yes, Probably No: Probability

Contributor: Erika Wargo. Resource ID: 12830

You will probably like this lesson; in fact, we are certain you will benefit from it! If you don't, we'll just DIE! Learn how to predict the outcome of events as you experiment with dice and spinners!

CATEGORIES SUBJECT
Probability, Statistics and Probability Math
LEARNING STYLE PERSONALITY STYLE

Visual Otter
GRADE LEVEL RESOURCE TYPE

Middle School (6-8) Skill Sharpener

Get It!
Are you more likely to eat a sandwich today or travel to the moon?

How did you determine your response?

Probability is the measure of how likely it is for an event to happen.

Some situations have uncertain futures, such as the weather or the arrival of a train or airplane. The forecast might say it will rain tomorrow, but that is only an educated guess. It might or might not rain. Since we do not know for sure, we say there is a "chance of rain" or say it is "very likely" that it will rain.

The probability of an event occurring can be described as certain, likely, unlikely, or impossible. If an event cannot happen, its probability is 0. If an event is certain to happen, its probability is 1. Probability can be expressed as a fraction with the number of favorable outcomes as the numerator and the number of possible outcomes as the denominator. As
you may recall, numerator is the top of a fraction and denominator is the bottom number of a fraction.

Example 1

A standard dot cube has six faces. Each face has dots representing the numbers 1-6. Pretend you roll the cube once. Which word best describes each event: certain (100%), likely (more than 50%), unlikely (less than 50%) , or impossible (0%)?
 A. The cube will stop with 4 dots on top.
Unlikely — there are six faces but only one has 4 dots.
B. The cube will stop with more than 2 dots on top.
Likely, because of the six faces on the dot cube — four have more than 2 dots. It would be expected that a number greater than 2 would end up on top more than half the times the cube is rolled.
C. The cube will stop with fewer than 8 dots on top.
Certain, because all of the faces have fewer than 8 dots. Every time the cube is rolled, the face on top will have fewer than 8 dots.
D. The cube will stop with more than 6 dots on top.
Impossible — none of the faces have more than 6 dots, so this could never happen.

Example 2

A bag contains 6 red marbles, 4 blue marbles, and 2 yellow marbles. Suppose you pick one marble from the bag without looking.

Find the probability that the marble is red.

Find the probability that the marble is not red.

There are 12 marbles total and 6 are red. So, 6 out of 12 marbles are red. This could also be viewed as a 50%. The probability that the marble is not red is also 6 out of 12 because if 6 are red, that means 6 are not red. This could also be viewed as a 50%.

Example 3

Use the circle below to answer the following problems:

A. What is the probability that the spinner will stop on 4? Since there are four total parts and only one section that is labeled 4, the probability would be unlikely, or 1 out of 4.
B. What is the probability of spinning a number greater than 2? Since there two parts with a value greater than 2, the probability would be 2 out of 4. This could also be viewed as a 50%.
C. What is the probability of spinning an even number? Since there are four parts and two of the values are even, the probability would be 2⁄4 or 50%.
D. What is the probability that the spinner will stop on a number greater than 5? Since there are no values greater than 5, there would be a 0% probability, or an impossible chance.

Many experiments involve probability, such as tossing a coin, spinning a spinner, and selecting an object from a collection of objects.

Discuss with an adult or teacher an experiment or event that has a "likely" outcome.
Then, discuss an experiment or event that would have an "impossible" outcome.

In the Got It? section, you will practice finding the outcomes of different probability situations using online games and interactive activities.

Got It?
Probability helps us predict how likely an event is to happen, such as when tossing a coin or rolling dice.

Probability can be named as a fraction, with the number of ways it can happen as the numerator and the total number of possible outcomes as the denominator.

First, identify the likelihood of picking a certain color ball from the machine. Drag the blue and red balls onto the correct positions on the probability line as you play Ball Picking Machine - An Interactive Probability Game from Free Training Tutorial Online Education for Kids.

Next, complete the following interactive. As you complete the questions, discuss your responses with your parent or teacher:
Discuss with your parent or teacher:

How did you determine the fraction to represent the probability of a certain event?
What is an event that has a 50% chance of happening today in your life?

In the Go! section, you will complete probability experiments with your parent or teacher and teach them what you know about probability!

Go!
You have learned that experiments involve probability.

The possible results of experiments are called outcomes. You can make a prediction on how likely it is that an outcome will occur. For this last activity, you will make predictions, perform an experiment, and draw conclusions about the outcomes.

In order to play this game, you will need a parent or teacher, a pair of dice (or you can use Online ONE DIE Roller from VirtualDiceRoll.com), paper, and pencil.

Create a table similar to the one below:

  Outcome Prediction Tally Total Frequency

1        
2        
3        
4        
5        
6        
 

1. In this experiment, each player will roll one die 36 times and tally the number of times each face turns up. Record your results in the table.
2. Before you begin, each player will predict the number of times each outcome will occur during the experiment. Your predictions should total 36, since that is the total number of times you will roll the die.
3. On your turn, roll the die.
4. Make a tally mark in the tally column for each outcome.
5. After you have rolled 36 times, write the Total Frequency, or the number of times each number was rolled, for each outcome.

Discuss the following questions:

What conclusions can you draw from the results?

What outcomes occurred most frequently?
What outcomes occurred least frequently?
Which predictions were correct?

Probability is used to describe how likely it is that a given event occurs in an experiment. When an experiment is completed over and over, the probability can be predicted of how likely it is an event will occur. Probability is used in weather, sports, and video games. Life is full of uncertainty, but some things can be predicted!