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Variogram Modeling Of Lime Saturation Factor On Limestone Quarry

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 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH VOLUME 9, ISSUE 03, MARCH 2020 ISSN 2277-8616

Variogram Modeling Of Lime Saturation Factor

On Limestone Quarry
Irfan Marwanza, Wiwik Dahani, Subandrio, Masagus Ahmad Azizi, Riskaviana Kurniawati, Irsan Farhan
Abstract.: The cement company sets a parameter standard for the level of limestone content to optimize the quality control used in cement production.
The parameter used is Lime Saturation Factor (LSF) which represents the ratio of CaO by Al2O3, Fe2O3, and SiO2. Blending of raw materials will never
be excellent and there are perpetually regions inside the clinker where the LSF locally is slightly below, or slightly above, the general target of clinker
creating. For this reason, it is necessary to find a formula for determining the LSF value, which in this study uses the geostatistical method. The aim of
this study is as an effort to consider, improve and evaluate to get an area with LSF value by the clinker making process. Primary data, which consists of
a total of 35 boreholes, was collected through sampling, cutting, and drilling, with geostatistical methods used to produce unbiased data based on each
region. After analyzing the goodness of fitting test using the Chi-Square, the distribution of LSF in quarry C was determined as an exponential with an
outlier from the boxplot analysis. The conclusion of this study, the geostatistical method can be used to determine areas with LSF values, based on the
results of the range variogram. The variogram model was obtained with a Nugget Effect of 100, Sill of 45000, and a 250 meters Range with a search
direction of 1350 and a 12.55% error.

Index Terms: limestone, Lime Saturation Factor, geostatistical method, Chi-Square, variogram, Nugget Effect, Sill, Range
—————————— ◆ ——————————

1 INTRODUCTION One important parameter in cement products, Lime Saturation

Minerals are widely used as industrial raw materials for the
production of various commodities such as cement, which
uses limestone, clay, quartz sand and iron sand in ratios of
CaO, Fe2O3, Al2O3, SiO2 along with impurities such as P2O5,
MgO, SO3, chlorides, alkalis, etc.[1],[2]. Cement is a product
obtained by the pulverizing clinker from the materials
limestone, with cohesive and adhesive properties that make it
capable of bonding minerals fragment into a compact entire
[3]. This study analyzes the measurement of the physical and
chemical properties of cement produced in factories with the
compound ratios of % Water, Res180, Res90, LSF, L.O.I, at
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk, Palimanan unit,
Cirebon. This industry mainly produced Ordinary Portland
Cement (OPC), Portland Composite Cement (PCC), and
clinker with qualities maintained and strictly controlled
periodically [4],[5]. A cement manufacturing plant aims to
improve the quality of its raw materials with the ability to
produce good cement, with Lime Saturation Factor (LSF) set
as a new parameter to mine quarry limestone as a form of
quality control optimization. LSF is one of the most important
parameters which affect the product quality[6]. The LSF (Lime
Saturation Factor) is the hypothetical point within the C-S-A-F
system where the adequate CaO present completely reacts to
form C3S from C2S at 1450°C beneath equilibrium conditions.
[7 ], [8]. The LSF parameter was chosen because it
represented the levels of CaO, Al2O3, Fe2O3, and SiO2 on
limestone. [9],[10].
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
The quality of limestone in research location is low with CaO
content less than 46% and heterogeneous. Based on these
properties, it was, therefore, necessary to determine the
appropriate variogram model using 35 sampling locations.
Factor (LSF), controls the ratio of alite to belite in the clinker
and this factor is commonly used to evaluate the quality of
cement. This research focuses on identifying LSF distribution
in mine site conditions. For this purpose, the geostatistical
analysis will be used. Accuracy studies conducted by
performance indicators determine that the geostatistical
method produced better statistical prediction capacity[11].
2.1 Lime Saturation Factor
Lime Saturation Factor (LSF) is a ratio of active lime (CaO) to
the maximum clinker[12]. However, LSF values are
determined by comparing the levels of CaO with other oxides,
namely Al2O3, SiO2, and Fe2O3. [13 ], [14]
…….…........(1)
2.2 Statistics
Statistics is the knowledge of collecting, analyzing, and
processing data with conclusions drawn. [15] While descriptive
statistics is the collection and presentation of data to provide
useful information.
1. Mean
Mean is a measure of the intermediate value of a data set. It is
calculated using the following formula:
.………….…….........................…..(2)
Information:
x̅ = mean
Xi = data number - i (i=1,2, 3,…, n)
n = data amount

2. Median
___________________________________________ Median is the center value of a group of data sorted
sequentially.
• The author's name is a lecturer in the Mining Engineering
Department, Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta PH: +62-815-8619-1888.
E-mail: irfanm@trisakti.ac.id ……………............….…. (3)
Information:
Lo = lower limit of the median class
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c = width of interval class descriptive statistics used to describe the lowest observation
n = data amount size, first quartile (Q1), median (Q2), third quartile (Q3), and
∑ft = the frequency of all classes lower than the highest observation (Fig.2.1). It is also used to describe data
median class distribution and outliers, which are from extreme values and
f_med= the frequency of the median class far from others thereby, affecting the amount of variance.

3. Mode
The mode is the value of most frequent data

……………..........…. (4)
Information:
Lo = lower limit of mode class
c = width of interval class
b1 = the difference between the mode class frequency
and one class before the mode
b2 = the difference between the mode class frequency
and one class after the mode
Fig. 2.1 Boxplot [16]
4. Range
The range is the highest data reduced by the lowest after it is 2.3 Geostatistics
sorted by value. Geostatistics aims to present quantitative descriptive of natural
Range = highest data – lowest data...…..............…... (5) variables that are distributed to quantify the spatial uncertainty
data. [17],[18]
5. Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation shows the dispersion of data set relative to 2.3.1 Variogram
its mean. The variogram is a geostatistical analytical method that
quantifies the degree of similarity and variability between
separate data at certain distances. Data close to the estimated
……...………..............................…. point are similar to those farther apart [19]
(6)
Information: ……........................(9)
σx = standard deviation Information:
x̅ = mean (h) = Variogram value at interval h
x_i = data number - i Xi = Data number - i
n = data amount N = Pairs of data

6. Variance Spherical, exponential and Gaussian isotropic theoretical

Variance is a measurement of the spread between numbers in functions were fitted to the sample variograms depending on
a data set, which is determined by squaring the standard the shape using a weighted least squares method procedure
deviation. and cross-validation technique [20]. From the variogram
modeling, its parameters such as range, nugget effect, and sill
….......................................(7) are obtained ( Fig.2.2).
Information:
σx = standard deviation

7. Coefficient of Variation
The coefficient of variation is a measure of data distribution,
otherwise known as relative standard deviation.

……..................................................(8)
Information:
CoV = coefficient of variation
σx = standard deviation
x̅ = mean
Fig. 2.2 Variogram Parameter [21]
8. Histogram
A histogram is the representation of data using bar charts. Its
The range is the variogram distance of a stable period which
use shows the continuous frequency of data.
affects Nuggets at minimal distances, while sill is the
saturation point where the samples obtained do not correlate
9. Boxplot
[22], [23].
Boxplot, known as chart box-and-whisker, is a type of
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2.3.2 Cross-Validation 4 RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Variograms are used to describe spatial variability and
distribution of the variables under consideration. This 4.1 Results of Statistics Test
technique, also called leave-one-out, was used to validate the This study begins by analyzing the basic statistics with results
estimation results and replace the variogram models [24]. obtained from the central and dispersion values of C LSF data.
Several different variogram models tend to appear to fit the The basic statistics result is shown in table 4.1 below:
data, which led to the use of the cross-validation technique for
its calculation. Cross-validation furthermore is used to TABLE 4.1
graphically compare the original value of data to the estimated BASIC STATISTICS RESULT
value, while repeating the search scenarios with the results. All Statistics LSF Value
sample points were estimated using the appropriate
parameters. Furthermore, the error was calculated by Mean 129.758
subtracting the estimated value from the true value as follows: Variance 16367.496
• A scatterplot of actual values versus estimated values
with several outliners and high correlation coefficients. Std.Dev 127.936
• Error histogram graphs are symmetrical, center on zero CoV 0.986
mean, and with minimum standard deviations.
Mode 77.322
• The plot of the error value versus the estimated value
needs to be centered on the zero line of error, using a Max 514.792
tool called "conditional unbiasedness." Min 9.815

A good variogram model occurs when the original value of Range 504.977
data and its estimate approaches a straight line of 45 degrees.
Besides, it can also be seen through the calculation of the The results obtained from the statistical analysis shows that
error between the actual value and the estimated value. large data variations were detected, with varying values of
calculated average (Mean) and median, indicating that the data
3 METHODOLOGY is not normally distributed. The characteristics of the boxplot
The research is located in Kedungbunder Village, Gempol LSF were studied which showed deviations and abnormalities in
District, Cirebon Regency, West Java Province with 108°24'15 the statistical analysis above and below the whisker. The LSF
'' - 108 24'30"E and 6°43'35" - 6°43'55 "S and a total of 346 Boxplot graph is seen below (Fig 4.1).
hectares wide. The cement mill is located 20 km west of
Cirebon City, while the quarry is situated towards the south of
the cement mill at a distance of 2.5 km, precisely in the
Kromong Mountains. Furthermore, the study was conducted
with a quantitative descriptive approach by collecting actual
information using field conditions, which are represented with
images and graphs. The presentation of information is based
on quantitative equations of geostatistical methods. [22].
Primary data are used with a total of 35 respondents using the
following research procedures:
1. Sampling
The sampling location was determined based on the mining
plan. The samples used were obtained from drilling, and some
were collected using the cone quartering method.

2. Samples Analysis
The physical properties of the cement are more important than Fig. 4.1. Boxplot LSF
the chemical properties[25]. Samples were analyzed using the
laboratory process, which consists of various stages such as 4.2 Fitting Test Chi-Square Method
crushing, grinding, making compact rings, and analysis of the Fitting Test using the Chi-Square method is used to test data in
chemical composition using X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometry the frequency distribution table [26]. Before analyzing the fitting
(XRF) machines. The LSF value is determined for each test, presenting descriptive statistics using histograms need to
sample from the chemical composition. be conducted. The results of the histogram plotting show an
abnormal distribution, as shown in Fig. 4.2.
3. Statistics Test
LSF values of 35 samples were carried out via statistical tests
using Matlab to produce data distribution and boxplot analysis
to detect outliers.

4. Variogram Modeling
Using the LSF data pair, a variogram model was generated,
and an optimal model produced using Surfer software.

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Chi- 0.01590 0.0040045 0.0033609 0.0048133

square 9 91 48 5

When the chi-square value is small, the theoretical frequency is

considered to be observable and is seen accordingly [26].
Therefore, the type of data distribution is referred to as
Exponential Distribution.

4.3 Variogram and Cross-Validation

To generate a variogram modeling, it is important to determine
the lag distance, the number of lags, and the angle tolerance.
[27]. The lag size is determined by the average distance from
the space of data collection (boreholes). The number of lags is
determined by dividing the farthest distance from the data
collection location with the average distance between the data.
Fig. 4.2. Histogram LSF
The following values were obtained:
From the histogram graph, the most suitable distribution with the
• Max Lag Distance = 520 meter
LSF data is obtained by comparing the empirical data to the
• Lag = 40 meter
theoretical distribution. Fitting Test is carried out with Matlab
software. Fig. 4.3 Below is the Data Distribution graph • Number of lags = 520/40
= 13 data pairs
• Angle Tolerance = 22.50
• Direction = 1350

The variogram requires a model to estimate the actual data and

acquire the optimal Sill, Range, and Nugget Effect values.
Variogram fitting was carried out using the trial and error method
before the most appropriate model was obtained based on error
calculation or error and cross-validation. [28 ],[29] Tables 4.3,
4.4, and 4.5 show the error in the Gaussian, Exponential, and
Spherical variogram models. Based on the three models, the
smallest error value was then searched. The smallest error
value data was used in the subsequent analysis of the
variogram model.

TABLE 4.3
ERROR VARIOGRAM GAUSSIAN MODEL

Sill
Range
Fig. 4.3. Data Distribution 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
150 18.33% 18.3% 18.41% 18.53% 18.63%
Visually, the log type is normal, and the exponential distribution
175 19.86% 19% 18.39% 17.8% 17.31%
has a shape that follows the histogram value of the LSF data.
However, the Chi-Square calculation needs to be conducted to 200 23.8% 23.47% 23.1% 22.67% 22.26%
ascertain the type of LSF distribution. [26] The calculation
225 23% 23.27% 23.46% 23.58% 23.7%
begins with determining the midpoint value of each histogram
bar and comparing the middle values of all data distributed. Chi- 250 18.92% 19.58% 20.14% 16.63% 21.03%
Square Method Fitting Test Results are seen in table 4.2 below.
TABLE 4.4
TABLE 4.2 ERROR VARIOGRAM EXPONENTIAL MODEL
FITTING TEST CHI-SQUARE METHOD RESULTS
Distribution Type Sill
Value Range
Normal Lognormal Exponential Gamma 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
Mean 129.76 131.26 129.76 129.76 150 13.66% 13.65% 13.64% 13.63% 13.63%

Variance 16367.5 21713.1 16837.1 11982.6 175 13% 12.99% 12.99% 12.97% 12.99%

Std.Dev 127.94 147.35 129.76 109.47 200 12.75% 12.74% 12.74% 12.73% 12.74%

CoV 0.98 1.12 1 0.84 225 12.65% 12.64% 12.64% 12.62% 12.64%

Skewness 1.24 1.11 1.22 1.45 250 12.58% 12.56% 12.56% 12.55% 12.56%

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TABLE 4.5
ERROR VARIOGRAM SPHERICAL MODEL

Sill
Range
30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
150 51.95% 51.92% 51.91% 51.9% 51.88%
175 47.01% 46.98% 46.96% 46.94% 46.98%
200 43.71% 43.68% 43.68% 43.68% 43.68%
225 40.01% 39.98% 39.98% 39.98% 39.98% Fig. 4.5. Variogram cross-validation
250 37.09% 37.07% 37.07% 37.07% 37.07%
Visible data points evenly spread on the centerline with the
distribution of points above and below the line.
• The error calculation is based on the absolute value of
the difference in the estimated variogram and LSF
recorded in percents. From the three models analyzed, 5 CONCLUSION
the smallest error was 12.55% in the Exponential In conclusion, LSF contains outliers obtained from the boxplot
model using the variogram parameters and is stated as and an exponential distribution of the Chi-Square analysis.
follows: Sill: 45000 The most optimal variogram model with the smallest error size
• Range: 250 meter is the Exponential variogram model with parameters Sill
• Nugget Effect: 100 45000, Range 250, Nugget Effect 100, and a total error of
12.55%.

Fig. 4.4 shows the experimental graph of the LSF variogram
that has been modeled with the Exponential Model, therefore,
the sill, range, and nugget effect is obtained.
6 ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was supported by the Mining Engineering
Department, Faculty of Earth and Energy Technology,
Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta, Indonesia. Thanks are expressed
to PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. Palimanan unit,
Cirebon, and all those that contributed to the success of this
research for their support and assistance. Thanks also to the
STEEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Economics,
Education, and Mathematics) Conference.

Fig. 4.4. Variogram Model Exponential
Variogram assessment requires the expertise of geostatistics
experts, and visually, the model chosen is based on the number
of pairs that intersect with the model. However, due to
limitations in the study and outlier data from boxplot analysis,
the variogram was chosen based on the smallest error.
Subsequently, cross-validation was conducted to satisfy the
rules of BLUE (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator) in the analysis.
[30]. Cross plot showed the alignment of the distribution of
points and the values of the observed and estimated data.
Cross-validation of the model is shown in Fig. 4.5 for the LSF
because the RMSE is closer to zero, fitted Exponential models
yielded better results, and was adopted in this study.
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