Professional Documents
Culture Documents
transport projects
2013E.C.
ODA BULTUM UNIVERSITY
Evaluation(Appraisal) of transport projects
The aim of the highway appraisal process is to determine the
economic, societal and environmental feasibility of the project
or group of projects under examination.
The process enables highway planners to decide whether a
project is desirable in absolute terms and also provides a means
of choosing between different competing project options, all
of which have the ability to meet the stated goals and objectives
of the project sponsors.
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
Appraisal - Assessing whether an alternative solution is
worthwhile clearly involves forecasting the effect it will
have on policy indicators and weighing them up to decide
whether overall the proposal is beneficial.
Economic efficiency - Projects could be found and undertaken
which would make everyone better off, those projects would
serve to promote economic efficiency.
A project is economically efficient if the benefits measured
in money terms exceed the costs; the most efficient project
is that for which the difference is greatest.
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
Transport project expenditures can be readily valued using
monitory terms and maintenance can be computed using
the market price of the nation. Operating cost usually takes the
form:
𝐺=𝑀+𝛾𝑇
where 𝐺 is the generalized cost,
𝑀 is the monitory cost,
T is the journey time and
𝛾 is the value of time.
Costs of transport projects- pain and grief resulting from
accidents, environmental effects- do not have a market price.
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
Accidents
Damage to property and vehicles,
Health service, ambulance and police costs, and
Loss of production due to victims being unable to work
Difficult is to place a money value on the pain, grief and suffering caused by
death or injury in an accident.
Environmental
Property demolition,
Noise nuisance,
Visual intrusion and air pollution.
Consumption of scarce and non-renewable resources such as oil.
Benefits
Reduction of congestion and travel time,
Provision of accessibility,
Enhancement of environment
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
The time saving can be generally indicated by the change in the
operating cost after the opening of the transport project.
Δ𝐺=𝐺𝑖−𝐺𝑓
Where Δ𝐺 is the saving in operating cost,
𝐺𝑖 is the initial cost before the project and
𝐺𝑓 is the current cost after the construction of the project.
The total saving in operating cost is given by
(NPV) ≥0
n
CFt
• Using the formula: NPV
t 0 (1 R ) t
0
Step 1 Step 2 Steps 3 and 4
250 0 1 250 0
1
250 290 0.93 232.5 269.7
2
250 290 0.86 215 249.4
3
255 300 0.76 193.8 228
4
260 335 0.73 189.8 244.55
5
260 335 0.68 176.8 227.8
6
260 335 0.63 163.8 211.05
t 0 (1 IRR )
t
0
8-18
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
NPV > 0 at 15% required return, so you should
Accept
IRR =10.11% (using a financial calculator), which
would tell you to Reject
Recognize the non-conventional cash flows
and look at the NPV profile
I= 15%
YR CF
0 -$90,000
1 $132,000
2 $100,000
3 -$150,000
NPV $1,769.54 >0
IRR-1 10.11% < 15%
IRR-2 42.66% > 15%
8-19
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
• Independent
– The cash flows of one project are
unaffected by the acceptance of the
other.
• Mutually Exclusive
– The acceptance of one project
precludes accepting the other.
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
The calculation of the internal rate of return involves the
following steps for mutually exclusive project.
Step 1. Estimate the cash inflows and cash outflows on a year-to-
year basis
Step 2. Work out the net cash flows for individual years.
Step 3. Select any random discount rate and compute the net
present values.
Step 4. If the NPV thus arrived at is positive, then select a higher
discount rate at which the NPV may come close to zero.
If, however, the NPV is negative, then select a lower discount
rate at which the NPV may come close to zero.
Step 5. Repeat the exercise until a discount rate that reduces the
net present values to zero is found.
Example (mutually exclusive project)
Costs
(Cash Benefits
Year Net Cash Net Present Values
outflow s) (Cash
Flows Discounted
inflows)
= 8 + 1.8
= 9.8 % rate of discount
Evaluation of transport projects (cont’d)
Example of Mutually Exclusive
Projects
Period Project A Project B The required
0 -500 -400 return for both
projects is 10%.
1 325 325
2 325 200
Which project
IRR 19.43% 22.17% should you accept
NPV 64.05 60.74 and why?