Infosys Ltd.

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Infosys Ltd. 
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 Infosys Ltd.
Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon
IT Consulting & Software Rs. 935 Buy in the Rs.875-883 band & add on dips to Rs 804-812 band Rs. 950 Rs.1021 2 quarters
HDFC Scrip Code INFTECEQNR Our Take:
BSE Code 500209 Despite a challenging quarter due to COVID-19 pandemic, Infosys numbers were above expectations in Q1FY21. Company reported 2 per
NSE Code INFY cent (QoQ) decline in PAT to Rs 4,233 crore, supported by lower other expenses and lower consultancy and professional charges. The
Bloomberg INFO IN revenue from the operations increased by 1.7 per cent (QoQ) to Rs 23,665 crore and dollar revenue fell by 2.4 per cent (QoQ) to US$
CMP Aug 28, 2020 935.0 3,121mn, Constant currency revenue declined by 2 per cent (QoQ) in Q1FY21. Operating profit was up by 8.9 per cent (QoQ) to Rs 5,365
Equity Capital (Rscr) 2127.2 crore and operating margin expanded to 22.7 per cent supported by favourable strategic cost levers.
Face Value (Rs) 5.0
Equity Share O/S (cr) 425.4 Infosys has given revenue growth guidance in the range of 0-2 per cent in constant currency for FY21 and Operating margin for FY21 to be
Market Cap (Rscrs) 397,782.7 in the range of 21-23 per cent. Clients’ spending on technology could be nominal in near term due to broader global economic uncertainty.
Book Value (Rs) 150.4 In the near term, this could result in continued lower demand for its services and solutions, especially in the area of discretionary
Avg. 52 Wk Volumes 11,403,065 technology-related spending by clients. However, in the longer term, we expect favourable opportunity as enterprises accelerate their
52 Week High 986.0 digital transformation initiatives and long term potential in BFSI. Investments made by Infosys in digital transformation, analytics, cloud,
52 Week Low 511.1 cyber security and AI would help the company to serve emerging demands of clients in these areas going forward. Infosys is also actively
looking for acquisitions, especially in digital areas like cloud and data science in new geographies.
Share holding Pattern % (June, 2020)
Promoters 13.2
Valuations & Recommendation
Institutions 55.9 Though currently clients are reluctant on signing large deals, in the medium term Infosys sees opportunities around vendor consolidation
Non Institutions 30.9 and large re-badging deals which it can capitalise on given its ability to seamlessly transition to work from home and strong balance sheet
position. Infosys is one of the industry leaders with robust execution capabilities, robust balance sheet, steady growth momentum, digital
Total 100.0
systems, and executive team, unified in their focus on strategy execution. We remain optimistic on its revenue and profitability trajectory
as well as cost rationalisation efforts going forward. We expect a repeat of past post crisis opportunity for IT services when it benefitted
Fundamental Research Analyst out of a wave of fresh outsourcing and offshoring demand given India’s large pool of engineers and low cost advantage. The sector
Abdul Karim benefits out of low cyclicality supported by high-annuity/client longevity, diversified industry verticals, growth drivers across cycles and
abdul.karim@hdfcsec.com strong cash generation and capital allocation. Infosys being a leader in the sector could benefit more.
We feel the Base case fair value of the stock is Rs. 950 (20.0xFY22E EPS) and the Bull case fair value is Rs. 1021 (21.5xFY22E EPS).
Investors can buy the stock in the Rs 875-883 band (18.5xFY22E EPS) and add on dips to Rs. 804-812 band (17.0xFY22E EPS).
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Infosys Ltd.
Financial Summary (Consolidated)
Particulars (Rs cr) Q1FY21 Q1FY20 YoY (%) Q4FY20 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Operating Income 23665.0 21803.0 8.5 23267.0 1.7 82,676.0 90,791.0 97,061.4 1,08,169.6
EBITDA 6121.0 5152.0 18.8 5676.0 7.8 20,889.0 22,268.0 24,806.8 27,211.6
Depreciation 756.0 681.0 11.0 749.0 0.9 2,010.0 2,894.0 3,001.9 3,345.1
Other Income 475.0 736.0 -35.5 614.0 -22.6 2,161.0 2,803.0 2,869.6 3,594.2
Interest Cost 48.0 40.0 20.0 45.0 6.7 0.0 169.0 192.0 192.0
Tax 1520.0 1365.0 11.4 1161.0 30.9 5,631.0 5,368.0 6,379.5 6,953.5
APAT 4233.0 3798.0 11.5 4314.7 -1.9 15,409.0 16,640.0 18,103.0 20,315.2
Diluted EPS (Rs) 10.0 8.9 11.5 10.2 -1.9 37.1 38.6 42.3 47.5
RoE-% 24.3 25.1 25.1 25.8
P/E (x) 25.2 24.2 22.1 19.7
EV/EBITDA 17.6 16.6 14.8 13.3
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Recent Triggers
Infosys is focussed to optimise its cost structure and operational rigor to maintain its profitability
Infosys is focussed to optimise its cost structure to maintain its margins going forward. Company initiated some activities, like:
• Improve liquidity and cash management with a rigorous focus on working capital cycles, including collections, receivables and any
other blocked cash.

• Reducing capital expenditures other than any committed or non-discretionary expenditures.

• Accelerate operational cost optimization initiatives such as automation, employee pyramid rationalization, controlling onsite-offshore
ratios, optimizing subcontractor and travel costs, deferring employee compensation revisions and promotions, delaying hiring of new
employees.

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Infosys sees healthy deal pipeline with delayed conversions
Infosys deal pipeline is healthier than before, though cost-cutting and cash conservation measures by clients have led to delayed
conversions. Infosys announced large deal wins worth US$ 1.74bn in Q1FY21 (excluding the deal from Vanguard) vs. US$ 1.65bn in
Q4FY20. Digital revenues stood at US$ 1,389mn, grew by 3.6 per cent (QoQ) and 25.5 per cent (YoY). It contributes 44.5 per cent of total
revenues vs 41.9 per cent in Q4FY20. On August, 2020, Infosys has signed a five-year deal with cloud customer experience and contact
centre solutions provider, Genesys. Company’s five-year partnership with Genesys enables both companies to develop and deploy
innovation and best-in-class solutions in the customer experience market. As a part of the partnership, Infosys will bring to market
Genesys' contact centre solutions. On July, 2020, Infosys and German firm LANXESS entered into a long term partnership for digital and
workplace transformation. LANXESS manufactures chemical intermediates, additives, specialty chemicals in Germany. Infosys will support
LANXESS in its IT infrastructure digitisation strategy and enable its global workforce spread across 33 countries using a secure and fully
managed modern workplace.

The long-term contracts with large fortune 500 companies make the sector (including Infosys) less vulnerable to downturns. Also, Covid-19
is driving enterprises to increase spend on modernising the IT infrastructure and applications at a much faster pace than ever before to
move to Public/Private cloud. In addition, Infosys should be able to maintain margins on increasing digital mix, lower sub-contracting costs,
rising utilization and optimizing the employee structures.

Infosys has seen an increase in client discussions, and in the near-term, sees demand in areas of collaboration, cost take-outs and
increasing automation. Infosys is seeing significant traction in cloud, digital, cyber security, workplace transformation, cost efficiency, and
consolidation related opportunities. Over the medium term, the company sees an accelerated shift to digital at clients in areas of core
modernisation, cloud migration, network virtualisation and cyber security. Its large deals team is focused on engaging with clients to take
on their entire IT landscape and facilitate the shift to digital by cost savings in offshoring, automation and analytics. While currently clients
are reluctant on signing large deals, in the medium term, Infosys sees opportunities around vendor consolidation and large re-badging
deals.

Infosys launches Artificial Intelligence-driven solution to automate helpdesk operations

Infosys announced the launch of its AI-driven 'Cognitive Email Workbench' solution that gives enterprises the ability to augment query
management and scale their helpdesk operations. Infosys leveraged its partnership with Blue Prism, a Robotic Process Automation (RPA)
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provider and a strategic partner to develop the solution that promises to significantly enhance productivity and customer satisfaction.
Apart from this, Infosys has aggressively invested in digital technologies in the past couple of years to capture the large portion of
upcoming digital spends. Given strong relationships with clients and robust execution capabilities, Infosys is well positioned to capitalise
on opportunities as and when clients boost their technology spends.

Long term Triggers

Leading player in the Indian IT services space, with established position across verticals and service lines
Infosys is a global leading consulting and next generation service provider and Company has a diversified range of offerings across service
segments and industry verticals. It has steadily increased the share of revenue from digital services, (45 per cent of revenue in Q1FY21,
compared with 41.9 per cent of revenue in Q4FY20, 40.6 per cent in Q3FY20, and 36 per cent in Q1FY20) which comprise offerings based
on artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of Things (IoT), cloud applications, and advanced cyber security systems, driven by better client
acceptance of its digital products and services. The company's core services (56 per cent of revenue in Q1FY21 compared with 58 per cent
in Q4FY20 and 64 per cent in Q1FY20) comprise traditional offerings and primarily include application development and management
services, product engineering and management, infrastructure management services, support and integration services. In terms of
verticals, Infosys derived about one third of its revenue from the banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) segment in Q1FY21.
Company also has a large presence in other verticals, such as retail (14 per cent), communication (13 per cent), energy and utilities (13 per
cent), and manufacturing (10 per cent).
Historical Nasscom data suggests that India gains market share in global sourcing every year and larger players gain market shares (at the
cost of others). Infosys could be a beneficiary of this trend.
Healthy operating efficiency
Infosys's business risk profile is supported by its leading market position, large scale of operations with a skilled resource base of 239,000
employees (as on 30th June, 2020), proven project execution skills, and strong offshore delivery capability. Company's profitability remains
among the best in the industry supported by its superior revenue mix, cost optimisation measures, and delivery effectiveness. Company
offers end-to-end service offering capabilities in consulting, software application development, integration, maintenance, validation,
enterprise system implementation, product engineering, infrastructure management and business process management. Company has
built specific industry domain and technology expertise, and in methodologies such as Design Thinking and Agile software development.

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Infosys Ltd.
Sound fundamentals led by Comfortable capital structure and strong debt coverage indicators
 Infosys financial profile has been robust led by debt free balance sheet and healthy cash generating ability over the past.
 Financial flexibility is strong, supported by robust liquidity in the form of cash and cash equivalent of Rs 27,276 cr as on March 31,
2020. Liquidity will remain robust supported by sufficient funds to finance working capital and capital expenditure (capex)
requirement over the medium term.
 Infosys has given revenue growth guidance in the range of 0-2 per cent in constant currency for FY21 and Operating margin for FY21 to
be in the range of 21-23 per cent.
 Infosys has recommended a final dividend of Rs 17.5 per equity share (F.V of Rs 5 per equity share) in FY20, subject to the approval of
the shareholders, dividend yield stands at 2.5 per cent at current market price.

What could go wrong?

 INR appreciation against the USD, pricing pressure, retention of the skilled headcounts, strict immigration norms as well as ban on US
H-1B and L1 visa, and rise in visa costs are key concerns.
 Infosys American arm is facing a race discrimination suit in a Texas district court filed by its former diversity chief. Any significant
adverse observations or findings from the ongoing investigations by regulators and government agencies into the whistle-blower
complaints could impact its profitability.
 Many of Its clients’ business operations may be negatively impacted due to the economic downturn – resulting in postponement,
termination, suspension of some ongoing projects with Infosys and / or reduced demand for its services and solutions.
 Political uncertainty due to presidential election in the US further impacting IT spending decisions in key verticals such as BFSI and
Retail.
 Sustained reduction in cash surplus due to large acquisitions or capital return to investors, affecting financial flexibility.

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Infosys Ltd.
About the company
Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation digital services, enabling clients in 46 countries to
create and execute strategies for their digital transformation. The company offers business, technology and software consulting services,
product engineering, customized software development, maintenance of information systems and outsourcing services to corporations in
India and overseas. It caters to industry verticals such as financial services, manufacturing, telecommunications, retail, life sciences, media
and entertainment, and energy and utilities.
Peer comparison
Company CMP Rs. Mar Cap Rs.Cr. EPS 12M Rs. OPM % NPM % Div Yld % ROE % P/E P/BV
TCS 2248.4 843686.2 83.2 26.8 19.9 1.5 37.2 27.0 10.0
Infosys 935.3 398359.0 40.1 25.1 18.3 1.9 25.2 23.4 6.0
HCL Technologies 710.2 192710.9 38.3 25.7 16.3 0.7 23.9 16.4 3.8
Wipro 272.4 155633.8 16.9 20.5 15.9 0.4 17.4 16.0 2.8
Tech Mahindra 735.6 71081.1 46.4 14.7 10.8 2.0 19.1 17.6 3.3
L & T Infotech 2496.9 43540.5 90.9 19.1 13.9 1.1 29.5 27.6 8.1
Mindtree 1149.4 18926.8 45.6 15.3 9.6 1.1 19.5 25.2 5.5
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)

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 Infosys Ltd.
Financials (Consolidated)
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E As at March FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Net Revenues 70522.0 82676.0 90791.0 97061.4 108169.6 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 3.0 17.2 9.8 6.9 11.4 Share Capital 1088 2170 2122 2122 2122
Operating Expenses 51512.0 61787.0 68523.0 72254.6 80958.1 Reserves 63835 62778 63328 69386.24 75958.3
EBITDA 19010.0 20889.0 22268.0 24806.8 27211.6 Shareholders' Funds 64923 64948 65450 71508.24 78080.3
Growth (%) 2.2 9.9 6.6 11.4 9.7 Long Term Debt 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.0 25.3 24.5 25.6 25.2 Net Deferred Taxes -741 -700 -776 -776 -776
Depreciation 1862.0 2010.0 2894.0 3001.9 3345.1 Long Term Provisions & Others 644 422 5100 5100 5100
EBIT 17148.0 18879.0 19374.0 21804.9 23866.5 Minority Interest 1 58 394 394 394
Other Income 3311.0 2161.0 2803.0 2869.6 3594.2 Total Source of Funds 64827 64728 70168 76226.24 82798.3
Interest expenses 0.0 0.0 169.0 192.0 192.0 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
PBT 20459.0 21040.0 22008.0 24482.5 27268.7 Net Block & Goodwill 12574 15710 23789 25136 26406.24
Tax 4242.0 5631.0 5368.0 6379.5 6953.5 CWIP 1606 1388 954 954 954
RPAT 16217.0 15409.0 16640.0 18103.0 20315.2 Other Non-Current Assets 9110 9136 7972 7988.506 8017.748
APAT 16217.0 15772.6 16403.9 17947.0 20159.2 Total Non Current Assets 23290 26234 32715 34078.51 35377.99
Growth (%) 13.0 -2.7 4.0 9.4 12.3 Current Investments 0 0 0 0 0
EPS 34.7 37.1 38.6 42.3 47.5 Inventories 0 0 0 0 0
Trade Receivables 13142 14827 18487 19763.79 22025.66
Cash & Equivalents 31765 30690 27276 31348.47 35444.3
Other Current Assets 10411 11615 12546 13186.22 14394.78
Total Current Assets 55318 57132 58309 64298.48 71864.74
Short-Term Borrowings 0 0 0 0 0
Trade Payables 694 1655 2852 3048.972 3397.912
Other Current Liab & Provisions 13087 16983 18004 19101.78 21046.52
Total Current Liabilities 13781 18638 20856 22150.75 24444.43
Net Current Assets 41537 38494 37453 42147.73 47420.31
Total Application of Funds 64827 64728 70168 76226.24 82798.3

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 Infosys Ltd.
Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios
(Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E (Rs Cr) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Reported PBT 20,459.0 21,040.0 22,008.0 24,482.5 27,268.7 EBITDA Margin 27.0 25.3 24.5 25.6 25.2
Non-operating & EO items -2,170.0 -926.0 -980.0 -2,121.8 -2,677.7 EBIT Margin 24.3 22.8 21.3 22.5 22.1
Interest Expenses 0.0 0.0 169.0 192.0 192.0 APAT Margin 23.0 19.1 18.1 18.5 18.6
Depreciation 1,862.0 2,010.0 2,894.0 3,001.9 3,345.1 RoE 25.0 24.3 25.1 25.1 25.8
Working Capital Change 84.0 -453.0 -2,367.0 -622.3 -1,176.8 RoCE 31.5 32.4 33.9 34.5 35.2
Tax Paid -6,829.0 -6,832.0 -4,550.0 -6,379.5 -6,953.5 Solvency Ratio
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 13,406.0 14,839.0 17,174.0 18,552.8 19,997.8 Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Capex -1,998.0 -2,445.0 -3,307.0 -4,217.6 -4,382.7 Net D/E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free Cash Flow 11,408.0 12,394.0 13,867.0 14,335.2 15,615.1 PER SHARE DATA
Investments 59.0 77.0 -26.0 0.0 0.0 EPS 34.7 37.1 38.6 42.3 47.5
Non-operating income 2,170.0 926.0 980.0 2,121.8 2,677.7 CEPS 38.1 40.9 44.3 48.1 54.0
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) 231.0 -1,442.0 -2,353.0 -2,095.8 -1,705.0 Dividend 16.8 21.5 17.5 28.0 32.0
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 BVPS 149.1 149.2 150.4 164.3 179.4
Interest Expenses 0.0 0.0 -169.0 -192.0 -192.0 Turnover Ratios (days)
FCFE 11,408.0 12,394.0 13,698.0 14,143.2 15,423.1 Debtor days 68.0 65.5 74.3 74.3 74.3
Share Capital Issuance 5.0 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 Inventory days 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend -20,510.0 -14,518.0 -17,026.0 -11,888.7 -13,587.1 Creditors days 3.6 7.3 11.5 11.5 11.5
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 VALUATION
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -20,505.0 -14,512.0 -17,189.0 -12,080.7 -13,779.1 P/E 26.9 25.2 24.2 22.1 19.7
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) -6,868.0 -1,115.0 -2,368.0 4,376.3 4,513.6 P/BV 6.3 6.3 6.2 5.7 5.2
EV/EBITDA 19.3 17.6 16.6 14.8 13.3
EV / Revenues 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.3
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 2.3 1.9 3.0 3.4
Dividend Payout 48.3 57.9 45.3 66.2 67.4
(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)

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One Year Price Chart:

(Source: Company, HDFC sec Research)

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