Muthoot Finance Ltd.

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 Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon
BFSI – NBFC Rs 1323 Buy on dips to Rs 1220-1228 band and add further in Rs 1113-1121 band Rs 1325 Rs 1406 2 quarters
Our Take:
HDFC Scrip Code MUTFIN Muthoot Finance Ltd (MFL) will continue to benefit from its long standing presence and deep knowledge of the gold loan segment. Increasing
BSE Code 533398 share of non-gold loans would de-risk its portfolio concentration and provide cushion to AUM growth. Also the same infrastructure would be
NSE Code MUTHOOTFIN utilized to cross sell products leading to lower cost-income ratio. The company has a comfortable liquidity position with ~Rs 10000cr as cash and
Bloomberg MUTH IN investments which it can utilize for its growth and should enable it to earn higher NIMs and return ratios. Brand building by roping in Amitabh
CMP Feb 12, 2021 1323.0 Bachchan as brand ambassador would give it a pan-India visibility. Resolution of overdue gold loan accounts would bring down the NPA levels in
Equity Capital (cr) 401.2 the coming years. Technology related initiatives has resulted in significant savings in operating expenses. Increasing proportion of online gold
Face Value (Rs) 10 loans would further aid in controlling opex.
Eq- Share O/S (cr) 40.1
Market Cap (Rs cr) 51202 Valuations & Recommendation:
Adj. Book Value (Rs) 268.5 In our view, the company will continue to be No.1 in gold financing business. This will be mainly driven by its strong business model led by lean
Avg.52 Wk Volume 29,38,000 cost structure and high standards of collection and operational efficiencies, resulting in best-in-class margins along with negligible ALM & NPA
52 Week High 1405.8 issues. This would help maintain strong RoEs of >25% and RoAs of >7% by FY23E. Strong promoter pedigree with a legacy of more than 100 years
52 Week Low 476.8 along with healthy capital adequacy of 25%+ with Tier-1 at 24.6% provides comfort. We expect a CAGR PAT growth of 20% on a standalone basis
over FY20-FY23. RoA is likely to expand from 6.8% in FY20 to 7.1% in FY23. We feel investors could buy the stock on dips to Rs 1220-1228 band
Share holding Pattern % (Dec, 2020) (2.30x FY23E ABV) band and add further in Rs 1113-1121 band (2.1x FY23E ABV) for sequential targets of Rs 1325 (2.5x FY23E ABV) and Rs 1406
Promoters 73.40 (2.65x FY23E ABV) in 2 quarters. At CMP the stock is trading at 2.4x FY23E ABV.
Institutions 21.63 Financial Summary
Non Institutions 4.97
Particulars (Rs cr) Q3FY21 Q3FY20 YoY-% Q2FY21 QoQ-% FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Total 100.0
NII 1771 1587 11.6 1582 11.9 5773 6748 7920 8958
PPoP 1390 1144 21.5 1211 14.8 4153 5028 6031 6910
Fundamental Research Analyst
PAT 991 803 23.4 894 10.8 3018 3640 4367 5006
Atul Karwa
EPS (Rs) 24.7 20.0 23.3 22.3 10.8 75.3 90.8 108.9 124.8
atul.karwa@hdfcsec.com
P/E (x) 17.0 14.1 11.7 10.2
P/ABV (x) 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.4
RoAA (%) 6.8 6.6 6.9 7.1
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Q3FY21 Financials
Net interest income grew by 11.6% yoy to Rs 1771cr in Q3FY21 driven by 31.5% yoy growth in gold loans. Non-gold loans declined by
0.7%. NIMs contracted by 256bps yoy but expanded 20bps qoq to 14.5% driven by 60bps qoq contraction in cost of funds. Operating
expenses declined by 7.2% yoy to Rs 441cr mainly because of lower other expenses. Provisioning requirement was lower as the collection
trends in gold loans improved. PAT grew by 23.4% yoy to Rs 991cr.

Average monthly disbursements were strong at Rs 10200cr against Rs 9100cr in Q3FY20. Consequently, the overall growth is expected to
exceed the management’s earlier guidance of 15%. Asset quality deteriorated marginally from previous quarter with GNPA at 1.30% as
compared to 1.26% in Q2FY21. MFL is carrying provision of Rs 621cr which is Rs 295cr above the regulatory requirements.

On a QoQ basis, gold loan AUM has increased 7.3% to Rs 49622cr even though the number of loan accounts increased 5% QoQ to 80.3
lakhs and the number of customers has increased 4% QoQ to 50.2 lakhs. Overall on-book LTV on gold loan book stands at 65%.

Proportion of online gold loans increased to 20.3% during the quarter from 19.7% in Q2FY21. MFL has added 25 branches net in Q3FY21
taking the total gold loan branch network to 4632 branches.

Long term Triggers

Diversifying lending business with increasing share of subsidiaries
Over the last few years, MFL has diversified into home finance, micro finance, insurance broking and asset finance verticals. The
consolidated share of non-gold business has increased from ~5% in FY17 to ~12% at the end of FY20. However, due to the pandemic, the
management is currently focusing on growing the gold loan portfolio, which have a shorter tenure and higher safety. AUM in home loans
has remained flat from Rs 1907cr at the end of FY19 to Rs 1880cr at the end of Q3FY21. AUM in the micro finance business has increased
to Rs 2886cr from Rs 2631 cr in FY20. Insurance broking business is also picking up with number of policies sold in Q3FY21 increasing by
23.5% to 10.31 lakh policies while PAT stood at Rs 8.6cr for Q3FY21 as compared to Rs 10.8cr in FY20.

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Belstar Inv. & Muthoot Insurance Asia Asset Finance Muthoot Money
Rs Cr Muthoot Finance Muthoot Homefin
Finance (70%) Brokers (73%)
Year 9MFY21 FY20 9MFY21 FY20 9MFY21 FY20 9MFY21 FY20 9MFY21 FY20 9MFY21 FY20
Loan AUM/Premium 50391 41611 1881 1977 2886 2631 258 323 524 538 421 509
Total Revenues 7746 8723 167 288 395 501 33 24 85 130 54 70
PAT 2726 3018 7.5 32 35 99 22 10 0.7 2.7 3.3 2.8

Increase in gold prices to benefit Muthoot

Over the past 12-18 months, Muthoot Finance has benefited from increasing gold prices and stronger demand. The short loan tenure has
also ensured positive asset-liability management (ALM). The increase in gold prices provides the company with additional cushion on the
collateral lying with it. It also gives credit traction from existing customers, allowing for top-up loans. Gold prices have risen from ~23%
from ~$1500 at the end of 2019 to ~$1850 currently.

The recent pandemic has resulted in increased preference for gold loan financing and even though the cost of funds is trending at a
higher range the management has been able to pass on the hike in cost thus maintaining margins. Going forward, margins are expected
to improve as the hike in the interest rate taken in July is resetting into the portfolio. Growth was mainly driven by a strong collection
efficiency which has resulted in an improvement in the asset quality. The operating expense is expected to remain inflated going forward
as the management has planned to expand branches by 100-200 every year.

Sufficient collateral against increase in NPAs

GNPAs of the company improved from 6.98% in FY18 to 2.16% in FY20 and further to 1.30% in Q3FY21. Gold financing is a high 20%+ yield
business which is fully secured against gold which is a very liquid asset. Thus NPA is not of any concern as the company maintains sufficient
collateral against its lending. It regularly undertakes auctioning of gold deposit for accounts where the possibility of recovery of dues is
negligible. Management has highlighted that collections have been strong in the past few quarters and it is carrying Rs 564cr of expected
credit loss provision in the books, which exceeds regulatory requirement by Rs 295cr. This should provide some comfort and reduce
provisioning requirement going forward. Also most of the loans of the company are repaid in 6 months while the liabilities are relatively of
longer term in nature resulting no ALM issues for the company.

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Asset quality to improve

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Unwinding of high liquidity to be margin accretive

Muthoot has been running significantly high cash balances due to the slowdown in lending, which has been impacting its NIMs and return
ratios. It has cash balance of Rs 8589cr and investments of Rs 2061cr at the end of Q3FY21. Utilising the surplus cash for lending would be
margin accretive for the company in the near term as it would have to borrow lesser funds. It has also been raising funds at very
competitive rates and the CoF is expected to decline further, which is positive for NIM expansion.

NBFC consolidation: Smaller players to be merged/wiped out

The focus of NBFC companies in the past had been on ensuring growth and disbursement and not much on asset quality. The recent
liquidity crisis has given a wakeup call to all the NBFCs to re-examine the fundamentals of the lending business—the asset quality, asset
liability management, diversification of the liability profile and the quality of the systems and processes. The increasing disclosures and

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
tightening regulatory requirement could make it unviable for smaller NBFCs to continue operations. In the process smaller NBFCs are likely
to get merged with larger companies or get wiped out.

Using technology for enhancing customer experience

The Muthoot Group was among the first in the NBFC space to launch its AI-enabled chatbots: Muthoot Advanced Technology
Transformation Unit (MATTU) and Muthoot Intelligent Technology Transformation Utility (MITTU). Through this launch, MFL aims to
redefine seamless customer experience by being present in the online space. The bot is designed to enhance the quality of the relationship
with customers by enhancing and personalising their financial journey.

The company has also launched its app iMuthoot which its customers can use for services like:
• View gold loan details
• Remit interest and principal repayments on loans
• Online Gold Loan (OGL) facility to withdraw/top-up enhanced eligible amount
• Renew loans

As of Q3FY20, over 29.5 lakh customers have downloaded the app and more than 5 lakh have been registered for availing gold loan
services through iMuthoot.

Gold loan market poised to witness strong growth

India’s gold loan market is expected to reach Rs 461,700cr by 2022 growing at a five-year CAGR (FY18 to FY22) of 13.4%, according to a
report by KPMG. Organised gold loan penetration remains significantly low which provides ample opportunity for organised financiers’
loan book growth. Overall gold loan stock with the organised sector forms a minuscule part of the total gold stock in the economy.
However, this has been increasing at a steady overall pace. The organised gold loan market comprising banks (public, private, small finance
and co-operative), non-banking finance company (NBFCs) and nidhi companies contribute to nearly 35% of the Indian gold loan market.

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Gold loan market growth

(Source: KPMG, HDFC sec)

Higher gold prices could drive incremental lending

Prices of gold have rallied in the recent past and companies can lend more amount to their customers. Although the demand has still not
reached the pre-Covid state, existing customers are borrowing more, compensating for the slowdown in new customers. Incremental
lending has been at a LTV of close to 70%. Due to the recent correction in gold prices average LTV which was 65% in Q3FY21 has increased
optically. Nevertheless, most of the customers still have a lot of room to borrow more against their gold mortgage.

What could go wrong

NIM compression
Although liquidity concerns have abated for the time being, marginal costs of funds have been trending up. Coupled with a declining yield
on advances, NIMs are likely to decline in the coming quarters until the company is able to pass on the higher cost of funds.

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Liquidity shortage
Any systematic issue on the liquidity front, like the crisis due to IL&FS default could hamper the growth in the short term

Fluctuation in gold prices

Wide fluctuations or a sharp fall in gold prices could lead to lower growth in advances in the gold loan business.

Overdependence on Gold loans

Although MFL is diversifying to other areas of lending, Gold loans still account for more than 70% of its AUM. Given the large AUM of Gold
loans, the non-gold loan portfolio will take time to reach a decent proportion of the overall AUM.

Regulatory risk
MFL largely caters to the poorer segment through gold loans and microfinance where the regulations are stringent. It was hit by adverse
regulation in gold loans by RBI during FY12-14 when the LTV was slashed from 85% to 60% and the sector was removed form priority
sector lending status which led to higher cost of borrowing. Any such regulatory changes by Centre/State governments could derail its
growth prospects.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in January 2021 proposed to introduce a scale-based regulatory framework for non-banking financial
companies (NBFC) to segregate larger entities and expose them to a stricter set of “bank-like” rules. This could impact adversely lenders
like MFL though the fineprint is yet not out.

Emerging competition from other NBFCs and Banks who are entering Gold loan space. However Gold loan companies have quicker
turnaround time, niche customer base, easy accessibility of a large branch network focused only on gold loans and flexible repayment
schedules.

Recently, the RBI increased the cap on gold loan LTV for banks from 75% to 90% for loans disbursed until 31st Mar’21, post which, it
would revert to 75%. However, the cap remains at 75% for NBFCs. This would not affect prospects for Gold Financiers as most customers
were taking loans at 60-65% LTV despite the 75% LTV cap, banks may not be willing to lend up to 90% LTV from a risk management
perspective.
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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Asset quality risk in Non-Gold financing business
The company has expanded in Housing and Microfinance business as it is synergic to their existing business. However there’s a risk of
asset quality in these business as then book isn’t seasoned and the company is relatively new in these highly competitive business.

AUM growth might slow down

With Gold prices peaking (MFL’s AUM growth is sensitive to rise in Gold prices) and economy now on recovery mode, the AUM growth
rate of MFL may lag that of pro cyclical Banks and NBFCs.

Increasing NPA in subsidiary

Muthoot Homefin (subsidiary of MFL) reported pro forma gross stage 3 loans (excluding asset freeze) of 6.85%, up from 1.7% in Q2FY21,
increase being much higher than other HFCs (in the range of 0.5 to 4%). However the AUM of Muthoot Homefin is 3% of consolidated
AUM. Gross stage 3 loans in the vehicle finance business (1% of consolidated AUM) increased to 9.6% in Q3FY21 from 5.1% in Q2FY21 and
2.5% in Q3FY20.

About the company

Muthoot Finance Ltd is India’s largest, niche gold finance company with a gold loan AUM of ~Rs 496bn as of Dec-20 and consolidated AUM
of ~Rs 504bn. Headquartered in Kochi (Kerala), the company is majority owned by the Muthoot family (73.4% stake as of Dec-2020). It
currently has 4,632 gold loan branches and presence across 29 states/union territory in the country. However, its footprint is concentrated
mostly in the South with ~60% of the branches. While loans are typically disbursed with tenure of 6-12 months, most of the loans are
repaid within six months – implying average duration of close to six months for the loans.

Besides gold loans, the company has also diversified into micro finance, housing finance, SME loans, vehicle loans and insurance broking
with promising results. Put together, it had an AUM of ~Rs 56bn of non-gold loans. Overall, non-gold businesses contributed 12% of the
consolidated business in FY20 and 5% of consolidated PAT.

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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Outstanding loan book growth Diversified pan-India presence, Branch-wise Break-up

(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Peer Comparison
CMP Mcap Total AUM NII PAT EPS ABV P/E P/ABV RoNW
FY20
(Rs) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (x) (x) (%)
Manappuram 176.2 14910 25225 3633.1 1467.8 17.3 65.2 10.2 2.7 25.7
Muthoot 1276.3 51202 46871 5773.5 3018.3 75.2 268.5 17.0 4.8 25.5

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 Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Financials
Income Statement Ratio Analysis
(Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E As at March (Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E
Interest Income 6757 8564 10359 12006 13338 Return Ratios (%)
Interest Expenses 2237 2791 3611 4086 4380 Calc. Yield on adv 21.0 22.1 21.8 21.4 21.0
Net Interest Income 4520 5773 6748 7920 8958 Calc. Cost of borr 9.3 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.8
Non interest income 124 158 190 224 254 Calc. NIM 14.0 14.9 14.2 14.1 14.1
Operating Income 4644 5932 6938 8145 9212 RoAE 22.4 28.3 27.8 26.7 24.8
Operating Expenses 1539 1779 1910 2114 2302 RoAA 5.7 6.8 6.6 6.9 7.1
PPoP 3104 4153 5028 6031 6910 Asset Quality Ratios (%)
Prov & Cont 28 96 143 168 190 GNPA 2.7 2.2 2.2 1.8 1.7
Profit Before Tax 3077 4057 4885 5862 6719 NNPA 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.3
Tax 1105 1039 1246 1495 1713 Growth (%)
PAT 1972 3018 3640 4367 5006 Advances 18.4 22.0 23.0 14.0 12.5
Borrowings 26.8 38.4 18.6 8.6 8.3
Balance Sheet NII 6.0 27.7 16.9 17.4 13.1
(Rs cr) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E PPoP 0.6 33.8 21.1 19.9 14.6
Share Capital 401 401 401 401 401 PAT 10.9 53.0 20.6 20.0 14.6
Reserves & Surplus 9392 11171 14169 17734 21777 Valuation Ratios
Shareholder funds 9793 11572 14570 18135 22178 EPS (Rs) 49.2 75.3 90.8 108.9 124.8
Borrowings 26833 37130 44019 47792 51749 P/E (x) 25.9 17.0 14.1 11.7 10.2
Other Liab & Prov. 1443 1758 1479 442 117 Adj. BVPS (Rs) 224.4 268.5 339.8 429.9 531.2
SOURCES OF FUNDS 38069 50460 60068 66368 74045 P/ABV (x) 5.7 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.4
Fixed Assets 215 257 276 296 319 Dividend per share (Rs) 12.0 15.0 16.0 20.0 24.0
Investment 983 1438 2620 2390 3360 Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9
Cash & Bank Balance 1736 5641 4454 3584 2688 Other Ratios
Advances 34933 42604 52403 59740 67207 Cost-Income (%) 33.2 30.0 27.5 26.0 25.0
Other Assets 202 520 314 358 470 Leverage (x) 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.0
TOTAL ASSETS 38069 50460 60068 66368 74045 (Source: Company, HDFC sec)
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Muthoot Finance Ltd.
One Year Price Chart

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 Muthoot Finance Ltd.
Disclosure:
I, Atul Karwa, MMS, author and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also
certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate does not have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –Yes

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com Phone:
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