10

The normal approximation to the

binomial distribution
Skills check Exercise 10.2
1. mean = 8 × 0.3 = 2.4; 1. a) P(X < 41.5) b) P(X > 31.5)
variance = 8 × 0.3 × 0.7 = 1.68 P(X > 8.5)
c) d) P(42.5 < X < 84.5)
2. X ~ N(4, 32) 2. 0.6
⎛ 10 − 4 ⎞
P(X < 10) = P ⎜ z <
a) 2 ⎟ = Φ(2) = 0.9772
= 0.5
⎝ 3 ⎠
0.4
⎛ 5−4 ⎞
P(X > 5) = P ⎜ z >
b) = 0.333 ⎟
⎝ 3 ⎠ 0.3

= 1 − Φ(0.333) = 1− 0.6304 = 0.3696 0.2

P(|X| < 3)
c)
0.1
⎛ −3 − 4 3−4 ⎞
 = P ⎜ =− 2.333 < z < =− 0.333 ⎟
⎝ 3 3 ⎠ 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
= Φ(−0.333) − Φ(−2.333)
  0.6
= Φ(2.333) − Φ(0.333) = 0.9902 – 0.6304
0.5
= 0.3598
0.4
Exercise 10.1
0.3
1.
0.2
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

probability 0.015625 0.09375 0.234375 0.3125 0.234375 0.09375 0.015625 0.1

0.6 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.5

0.4 Exercise 10.3

0.3 1. a) Yes: N(35, 10.5)
No: n(1 − p) = 3
b)
0.2
Yes: N(100, 80)
c)
0.1
No: np = 1.
d)
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2. a) X ~ B(50, 0.7) ⇒ N(35, 10.5) ⇒ P (X < 42)

2. ⎛ 41.5 − 35 ⎞
 = P ⎜ z < =
2.006 ⎟
⎝ 10.5 ⎠
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
 = Φ(2.006) = 0.9775
probability 0.531441 0.354294 0.098415 0.01458 0.001215 5.4E−05 0.000001

0.6 X ~ B(40, 0.3) ⇒ N(12, 8.4) ⇒ P(X ≥ 9)

b)
⎛ 8.5 − 12 ⎞
0.5  = P ⎜ z < =− 1.208 ⎟
⎝ 8.4 ⎠
0.4
  = 1 − Φ(1.208) = 0.1136
0.3
c) X ~ B(34, 0.37) ⇒ N(12.58, 7.9254) ⇒ P(X ≥ 13)
0.2
 = P ⎛⎜ z < 12.5 − 12.58 = ⎞
− 0.0284 ⎟
0.1 ⎝ 7.9254 ⎠
0
  = 1 − Φ(0.284) = 0.4887
0 1 2 3 4 5 6

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 1
 X ~ B(80, 0.4) ⇒ N(32, 19.2) ⇒ P(25 < X ≤ 37)
d) 7. a) X ~ B(84, 0.35) ⇒ approx N(29.4, 19.11)
⎛ 25.5 − 32 37.5 − 32 ⎞ 24.5 − 29.4
= P ⎜ =− 1.483 < z < =1.255 ⎟ P(X > 24.5) = P  z > = −1.121
⎝ 19.2 19.2 ⎠  19.11 

= Φ(1.255) − Φ(−1.483) = 0.8953 – 0.0690

 = Φ(1.121) = 0.8689
= 0.8263 b) Patients in poor health are more likely to have
appointments in the surgery so it is an assumption
X ~ B(124, 0.43) ⇒ N(53.32, 30.3924)
e) which is very unlikely to be true, and unlikely to
⇒ P(43 ≤ X ≤55) be even a reasonable approximation to reality.
⎛ 42.5 − 53.32 55.5 − 53.32 ⎞
= P ⎜ =− 1.963 < z < =0.395 ⎟ Summary exercise 10
⎝ 30.3924 30.3924 ⎠
1. a) X ~ B(20, 0.2) ⇒ mean = 20 × 0.2 = 4;
= Φ(0.395) − Φ(−1.963) = 0.6536 – 0.0248

variance = 20 × 0.2 × 0.8 = 3.2
= 0.6288
b) P(X > 2) = 1 − P(X ≤ 2) = 1 − 0.2061 = 0.7939
3. a) i) 
P(X = 13, 14, …, 19) = 0.1050 + 0.1189 +
0.1223 + 0.1147 + 0.0983 + 0.0772 + c) Y ~ B(154, 0.8) ~ approx N(123.2, 24.64)
0.0558 = 0.6923 ⎛ 135.5 − 123.2 ⎞
approx P(Y > 135.5) = P ⎜ z > =
2.478 ⎟
X ∼ B ( 50,0.3) ∼ N(15,10.5) ⎝ 24.64 ⎠
 12.5 − 15 19.5 − 15  = 1 − Φ(2.478) = 0.0066
P (12 < X < 20 ) ≈ P 
ii) <Z < 
 10.5 10.5 
X ~ B(10, 0.5)
2. a)  P(X > 7)
= P ( −0.772 < Z < 1.389 )
⎛ 10 ⎞ ⎛ 10 ⎞
= 0.9175 − (1 − 0.7800) = 0.6975 = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.58 × 0.52 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.5 × 0.5 + 0.5
9 1 10

⎝ 8⎠ ⎝ ⎠9
i) 0.6975 – 0.6923 = 0.0052
b) = 0.0547
0.0052
ii) × 100% = 0.75% b) Y ~ B(100, 0.5) ~ approx N(50, 25)
0.6923
4. The Normal can be used as an approximation ⎛ 70.5 − 50 ⎞
P(Y > 70.5) = P ⎜ z > =
4.1⎟
when both np and n(1 − p) are > 5, (provided ⎝ 5 ⎠
the observations are a random sample from the = 1 − Φ(4.1) = 0.000
population). The parameters to be used are the c) W ~ B(1000, 0.5) ~ approx N(500, 250)
mean and variance of the Binomial; μ = np;
⎛ 700.5 − 500 ⎞
σ 2 = npq. P(W > 700.5) = P ⎜ z > =
12.68 ⎟
⎝ 250 ⎠
5. a) X ~ B(5, 0.06) = 1− Φ(12.68) = 0.000
⎛5⎞
P(X = 1) = ⎜ ⎟ × 0.06 × 0.944 = 0.234 Note: this illuminates a key concept in statistics – the
⎝1 ⎠ laws of large numbers – all these questions are asking
Y ~ B(2000, 0.06); ⇒ N(120, 112.8)
b) about the same proportion – but in an increasing
⎛ 99.5 − 120 ⎞ number of trials the likelihood decreases dramatically.
 P⎜ z <
 P(X < 100) = =− 1.930 ⎟
⎝ 112.8 ⎠
⎛ 1⎞
= 1 − Φ(1.930) = 0.0268 3. a)
X ∼ B ⎜ 12, ⎟  P(X >3)
⎝ 6⎠
6. a) X ~ B(50, 0.25) P(X > 3) = 1 − P(X ≤ 3) = 1 − 0.8748 = 0.1252
X ~ approx N(12.5, 9.375)
b) ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 100 ⎞
b) Y ∼ B ⎜ 120, ⎟ ~ approx N ⎜ 20, ⎟
⎛ 19.5 − 12.5 ⎞ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6 ⎠
P(X > 19.5) = P ⎜ z > =
2.286 ⎟
⎝ ⎠ 30.5 − 20
9.375
P(Y > 30.5) = P  z > = 2.572
= 1− Φ(2.286) = 0.0111  16.67 

⎛ 1⎞ = 1 − Φ(2.572) = 0.005
c)
Y ∼ B ⎜ 50, ⎟ ~ approx N(16.67, 11.11)
3⎠ ⎝ ⎛ 1⎞ ⎛ 1000 ⎞
c) W ∼ B ⎜ 1200, ⎟ ~ approx N ⎜ 200, ⎟
⎛ 19.5 − 16.67 ⎞ ⎝ 6⎠ ⎝ 6 ⎠
P(Y < 19.5) = P ⎜ z > =
0.850 ⎟
⎝ ⎠ 300.5 − 200
11.11
P( W > 300.5) = P  z > = 7.785
= Φ(0.850) = 0.8023  116.7 
= 1 − Φ(7.785) = 0.00

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 2
4. a) i)  X ~ B(10, 0.3) 7.  i) Using X ∼ B (12,0.2 ), P(X < 3) = 0.812 +
P(X ≤ 4) = 0
 .8497 (12 × 0.811 × 0.2) + ( 12C 2 × 0.810 × 0.2 2 ) = 0.558
ii) P(X ≥ 4) = 0.3504 ii) n (150) and p (0.65) have both np and nq > 5,
so it is appropriate to approximate the
Y ~ B(250, 0.53) ~ approx N(132.5, 62.275)
b)
B(150, 0.65) distribution by a normal
⎛ 119.5 − 132.5 ⎞ with mean 150 × 0.65 = 97.5 and variance
P(Y > 119.5) = P ⎜ z > =
− 1.647 ⎟
⎝ 62.275 ⎠ 150 × 0.65 × 0.35 = 34.125.
 110.5 − 97.5 
  = Φ(1.647) = 0.9502 P( X > 110) ≈ P  Z > = 2.225
 34.125 
W ~ B(50, 0.08)
c) = 1 − Φ (2.225) = 0.013
⎛ 50 ⎞ ⎛ 50 ⎞
P(X ≤ 3) = 0
 .92 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9249 × 0.08 + ⎜ ⎟
50

⎝ ⎠1 ⎝ 2⎠ 8. n (300) and p (0.8) have both np and nq > 5, so

⎛ 50 ⎞
× 0.92 × 0.08 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.92 × 0.083
48 2 47 it is appropriate to approximate the B(300, 0.8)
⎝ 3⎠ distribution by a normal with mean 300 × 0.8 = 240
= 0.4253
and variance 300 × 0.8 × 0.2 = 48.
Note: in part c a normal approximation is not  250.5 − 240 
P( X > 250) ≈ P  Z > = 1.516
appropriate because 50 × 0.08 = 4 (<5)  48 
= 1 − Φ (1.516) = 0.065
7 8
⎛ 1⎞ ⎛8⎞ 1 2
 1 − ⎜ ⎟ ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟ − ⎛⎜ ⎞⎟
5. a) X ∼ B ⎜ 8, ⎟ P(X ≥ 2) =
2
⎝ 3⎠ 1 3
⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠ 3 3
⎝ ⎠ 9. n (350) and p (0.5) have both np and nq > 5,
= 0.8049 so it is appropriate to approximate the
B(350, 0.45) distribution by a normal
Y ~ B(200, 0.338) ~ approx N(67.67, 44.79)
b)
with mean 350 × 0.45 = 157.5 and variance
⎛ 80.5 − 67.67 ⎞ 350 × 0.45 × 0.55 = 86.625.
P(Y > 80.5) = P ⎜ z > =
1.917 ⎟
⎝ 44.79 ⎠  149.5 − 157.5 
P( X < 150) ≈ P  Z < = −0.860
 86.625 
= 1 − Φ(1.917) = 0.0277
= 1 − Φ (0.86) = 0.189
6 a) X ~ B(25, 0.1)

i) P(X = 0) = 0.925 = 0.0718 10.  i) Let X be the mass of a randomly selected egg,
then X ∼ N(55, 5.2 2 ).
⎪⎧ ⎛ 25 ⎞ ⎪⎫
ii) P(X ≥ 2) = 1− ⎨0.9 25 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.9 24 × 0.1⎬ P( jumbo) = P( X > 65)
⎩⎪ ⎝ 1⎠ ⎭⎪
65 − 55
= 0.7288 = P  Z > = 1.925
 5.2 

{ ⎛ 25 ⎞
iii)  P(X ≥ 4) = 1 − 0.925 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.924 × 0.1
⎝ 1⎠
⎛ 25 ⎞ ⎛ 25 ⎞
+ ⎜ ⎟ × 0.923 × 0.12 + ⎜ ⎟ × 0.922
⎝ ⎠2 ⎝ 3⎠
}
× 0.13 = 0.2364
Y ~ B(250, 0.1) ~ approx N(25, 22.5)
b) of 300 eggs then W ∼ B(300, 0.0272).
39.5 − 25
P(Y > 39.5) = P  z > = 3.057
 22.5
= 1 − Φ(3.057) = 0.001(3 d.p.)
Note: in part b the table of critical values for
p = 0.999 gives z = 3.090 (>3.057) so know this
probability is 0.001 correct to 3 decimal places.
= 1 − Φ (1.923) = 0.0272
If Y is the number of jumbo eggs in a box of
 ii) 
12 eggs then Y ∼ B(12,0.0272), and the
probability of no jumbo eggs is 0.972812 = 0.718.
  iii) If W is the number of jumbo eggs in an order
 
n (300) and p (0.0272) have both np and
nq > 5, so it is appropriate to approximate

the B(300, 0.0272) distribution by a normal
with mean 350 × 0.0272 = 8.91 and variance
350 × 0.0272 × 0.9728 = 7.938.
 5.5 − 8.91 
P(W < 6) ≈ P  Z < = −1.210
 7.938 
 = 1 − Φ (1.210) = 0.113

© Oxford University Press 2018: this may be reproduced for class use solely for the purchaser’s institute The normal approximation to the binomial distribution 3