Trader’s Playbook

January 3, 2022
Philippine National Bank
Bloomberg: PNB PM / Reuters: PNB.PS

PNB: Potential upside ahead BUY ON BREAKOUT

• Philippine National Bank (PNB) share price spiked after Last Traded Price (28 Dec 2021) 20.50
the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Mkt. Cap (P bn) 29.90
the bank’s property dividends. Free Float (%) 21.22
• MACD indicates potential uptrend
• Accumulate once the stock breaks above P22.00. Set
cut loss below P20.00. Take profits around P24.30.

What Happened: PNB vs. PSEi year-on-year performance

Philippine National Bank (PNB) share prices spiked in 29 Dec 2021 80.0%

after the announcement of the approval by the Securities and 60.0%

Exchange Commission (SEC) of the bank’s special property 40.0%
dividends. Recall that in 23 Apr 21, the Board of Directors
20.0%
approved property dividend declaration of up to 239,353,710
0.0%
common shares of PNB Holdings Corporation (PHC) with a par
value of P100 per share, to all stockholders of record as of 18 May -20.0%

2021. The property dividend shall be paid at a ratio of PNB PSEi

-40.0%

0.156886919 shares of PHC for every 1 share of PNB. -60.0%

Our View:
PNB prices have already started to rise after dropping to its 52-
week low of P19.00 last 15 Dec 2021. The 9-day EMA signal has
also crossed the MACD line, suggesting the start of an uptrend. A
break above the resistance of P22.00 will likely lead to a retest of
the next resistance level at P24.00.

Recent newsflow helped solidify the positive sentiment. Traders

may take advantage of the event to take potential gains. Recall
that initial announcement of the property dividend in late Apr-21
sent prices as high as P31.80.

Recommendation:
Equity Research Analyst
Accumulate once the stock breaks above P22.00. Set cut loss
Jan Derrick Guarin
below P20.00. Take profits around P24.30/P25.00.
+63 (2) 8859-0600
 Trader’s Playbook

Technical Corner

Analysis: PNB’s share prices have started to rise after dropping to its 52-week low of
P19.00 last 15 Dec 2021. The 9-day EMA signal has also crossed the MACD line,
suggesting the start of an uptrend. A break above the resistance of P22.00 will likely
lead to a retest of the next resistance level at P24.00.

Trading Plan: Traders may start to accumulate once the stock breaks above P22.00.
Set cut loss below P20.00 and take profits around P24.30/P25.00.

Peer Table
EPS FY22F NIM* FY22F P/E F12 P/BV F12 ROE FY22F
BDO 10.81 4.18% 11.55 1.18 10.67%
BPI 7.16 3.38% 13.36 1.35 10.41%
MBT 5.87 3.35% 9.16 0.74 7.95%
PNB 5.19 3.29% 3.87 0.19 4.81%
EW 2.99 6.90% 3.24 0.32 10.40%
UBP 7.80 4.70% 13.04 1.37 10.69%
SECB 12.51 4.41% 9.57 0.67 7.16%
CHIB 6.00 4.30% 4.34 0.64 14.90%
Median 4.24% 9.37 0.71 10.40%
* Net Interest Margin
Source: Refinitiv
 Trader’s Playbook

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