LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT, 18e

G. TYLER MILLER • SCOTT E. SPOOLMAN

The Human Population and Its

Impact
©©Cengage
CengageLearning
Learning2015
2015
Core Case Study: Planet Earth: Population
7 Billion

• The evolution of Homo sapiens and a total

population of 2 billion has taken 200,000
years
• It has taken less than 50 years to reach
the second 2 billion
• It took 25 years to add the third 2 billion
• Twelve years later, the population topped
7.1 billion
• What is a sustainable human population?
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Core Case Study: Planet Earth: Population 7 Billion

Billions of people
2011 (7 billion)
1999 (6 billion)
1987 (5 billion)
1974 (4 billion)
1960 (3 billion)
1930 (2 billion)
1800 (1 billion)

Time
Hunting and Agricultural revolution Industrial
gathering revolution
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Fig. 6-1, p. 122
6-1 How Do Environmental Scientists
Think about Human Population Growth?

• The continuing rapid growth of the human

population and its impacts on natural
capital raise questions about how long the
human population can keep growing

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Human Population Growth Shows Certain
Trends

• Rate of population growth has slowed in

recent decades
• Human population growth is unevenly
distributed geographically
• People are moving from rural to urban
areas

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Annual Growth Rate of World Population,
1950-2010

Fig. 6-2, p. 123

 Where Population Growth Occurred, 1950-
2010
World population (in billions)

Population in less-developed countries

Population in more-developed countries

Year

Fig. 6-3, p. 123

Human Population Growth Impacts Natural
Capital

• As the human population grows, so does

the global total human ecological footprint
• Cultural carrying capacity
– Total number of people who could live in
reasonable freedom and comfort indefinitely,
without decreasing the ability of the earth to
sustain future generations

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Natural Capital Degradation

Altering Nature to Meet Our Needs

Reducing biodiversity
Increasing use of net primary
productivity
Increasing genetic resistance in
pest species and disease-
causing bacteria
Eliminating many natural
predators
Introducing harmful species into
natural communities

Using some renewable resources

faster than they can be replenished
Disrupting natural chemical
cycling and energy flow
Relying mostly on polluting and
climate-changing fossil fuels
Fig. 6-4, p. 125
6-2 What Factors Influence the Size of the
Human Population?

• Population size increases through births

and immigration, and decreases through
deaths and emigration
• The average number of children born to
women in a population (total fertility rate)
is the key factor that determines
population size

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The Human Population Can Grow,
Decline, or Remain Fairly Stable

• Population change =
(births + immigration) – (deaths +
emigration)
• Crude birth rate
– The number of live births/1000/year
• Crude death rate
– The number of deaths/1000/year

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Women Are Having Fewer Babies, But the
World’s Population Is Still Growing

• Fertility rate
– Number of children born to a woman during
her lifetime
• Replacement-level fertility rate
– Average number of children a couple must
have to replace themselves
– Approximately 2.1 in developed countries
– Up to 2.5 in developing countries

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The World’s Population Is Still Growing
(cont’d.)

• Total fertility rate (TFR)

– Average number of children born to women in
a population
– Between 1955 and 2012, the global TFR
dropped from 5 to 2.4
– However, to eventually halt population growth,
the global TFR will have to drop to 2.1

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 Total Fertility Rate
Total Fertility Rates
Births per woman

Baby boom Replacement

(1946–64) level

Fig. 6-5, p. 127

Case Study: The U.S. Population – Third
Largest and Growing

• Population still growing and not leveling off

– 76 million in 1900
– 314 million by 2012
• Drop in TFR in U.S.
– Rate of population growth has slowed
• What have been some changes in lifestyle
in the U.S. during the 20th century?

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 Life expectancy 47 years
77 years

Married women working 8%

outside the home 81%

High school 15%

graduates 83%

Homes with flush 10%

toilets 98%

Homes with 2%
electricity 99%

Living in 10%
suburbs 52%
1900
Hourly manufacturing job $3
2000
wage (adjusted for inflation) $15

Homicides per 1.2

100,000 people 5.8
Stepped Art
Fig. 6-7, p. 132
Case Study: The U.S. Population – Third
Largest and Growing (cont’d.)

• Immigration
– U.S. has admitted almost twice as many
immigrants and refugees as all other
countries combined

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 Legal Immigration to
the United States
Number of legal immigrants (thousands)

1907
1914
New laws
restrict
immigration

Great
Depression

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Fig. 6-6, p. 127
Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and
Fertility Rates

• Children as part of the labor force

• Cost of raising and educating children
• Availability of private and public pension
• Urbanization
• Educational and employment opportunities
for women

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Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and
Fertility Rates (cont’d.)

• Average age of a woman at marriage

• Availability of legal abortions
• Availability of reliable birth control methods
• Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural
norms

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Several Factors Affect Birth Rates and
Fertility Rates (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-9, p. 129

Several Factors Affect Death Rates

• Life expectancy
• Infant mortality rate
– Number of live births that die in first year
• High infant mortality rate indicates:
– Insufficient food
– Poor nutrition
– High incidence of infectious disease

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Several Factors Affect Death Rates (cont’d.)

Less-developed
(deaths per 1,000 live births)

countries
Infant mortality rate

World

More-developed
countries

Year Fig. 6-10, p. 129

Migration Affects an Area’s Population Size

• Migration
– The movement of people into and out of
specific geographic areas
• Causes:
– Economic improvement
– Religious and political freedom
– Wars
• Environmental refugees
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6-3 How Does a Population’s Age
Structure Affect Its Growth or Decline?

• The numbers of males and females in

young, middle, and older age groups
determine how fast a population grows or
declines

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A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us
Make Projections

• Age structure categories

– Prereproductive ages (0-14)
– Reproductive ages (15-44)
– Postreproductive ages (45 and older)
• Seniors are the fastest-growing age group

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A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us
Make Projections (cont’d.)

Male Female Male Female Male Female Male Female

Expanding Rapidly Expanding Slowly Stable Japan Declining Germany

Guatemala Nigeria United States Italy Greece Bulgaria Russia
Saudi Arabia Australia China
Prereproductive ages Reproductive ages Postreproductive ages 45–85+
0–14 15–44

Fig. 6-11, p. 131

A Population’s Age Structure Helps Us
Make Projections (cont’d.)

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Fig. 6-12, p. 132
Case Study: The American Baby Boom

• 79 million people added from 1946-1964

– 36% of adults
• Affect politics and economics
• Now becoming senior citizens
– Graying of America

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Case Study: The American Baby Boom
(cont’d.)

Fig. 6-13, p. 132

Populations Made Up of Mostly Older
People Can Decline Rapidly

• Slow decline
– Manageable
• Rapid decline
– Economic problems
• Proportionally fewer young people working
• Labor shortages

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 Some Problems with Rapid
Population Decline

Can threaten economic growth

Labor shortages

Less government revenues with fewer

workers

Less entrepreneurship and new

business formation

Less likelihood for new technology

development

Increasing public deficits to fund higher

pension and health-care costs

Pensions may be cut and retirement age

increased
Fig. 6-14, p. 133
Populations Can Decline due to a Rising
Death Rate: The AIDS Tragedy

• AIDS has killed more than 30 million

people
• Many young adults die – loss of most
productive workers
• Sharp drop in life expectancy
• International community
– Reduce the spread of HIV through education
and health care
– Financial assistance and volunteers
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The AIDS Tragedy (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-15, p. 134

6-4 How Can We Slow Human Population
Growth?

• We can slow human population growth by

reducing poverty, elevating the status of
women, and encouraging family planning

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The First Step Is to Promote Economic
Development

• Demographic transition
– As countries become industrialized
• First death rates decline
• Then birth rates decline
• Four stages
– Preindustrial
– Transitional
– Industrial
– Postindustrial
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 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial
Population Population grows rapidly Population growth Population growth
grows very because birth rates are high and slows as both birth levels off and then
slowly because death rates drop because of and death rates declines as birth
of a high improved food production and drop because of rates equal and
birth rate health improved food then fall below
(to compensate production, health, death rates
(number per 1,000 per year)

for high infant and education

Birth rate and death rate

80 mortality) and a
70 high death rate
Total population
60
Birth rate
50
40
30
20 Death rate

10
0
Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative
Growth rate over time

Stepped Art
Fig. 6-16, p. 135
Empowering Women Can Slow Population
Growth
• Factors that decrease total fertility rates:
– Education
– Paying jobs
– Ability to control fertility
• Women:
– Do most of the domestic work and child care
– Provide unpaid health care
– 2/3 of all work for 10% of world’s income
– Discriminated against legally and culturally
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Empowering Women Can Slow Population
Growth (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-17, p. 135

Family Planning Can Provide Several
Benefits

• Family planning in less-developed

countries
– Responsible for a 55% drop in TFRs
– Financial benefits – money spent on family
planning saves far more in health, education
costs

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Family Planning Can Provide Several
Benefits (cont’d.)

• Two problems
– 42% pregnancies unplanned, 26% end with
abortion
– Many couples do not have access to family
planning
• How can family planning programs be
expanded?

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Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth in India

• Population: 1.26 billion people in 2012

• Problems
– Poverty, malnutrition, and environmental
degradation
• Causes
– Bias toward having male children
– Poor couples want many children
– Only 47% of couples use family planning
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Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth in India (cont’d.)

Fig. 6-20, p. 137

Case Study: Slowing Population Growth in
China: A Success Story

• World’s most populous country

• Threat of mass starvation in the 1960s
• Government established a strict family
planning and birth control program
– Reduced number of children born per woman
from 5.7 to 1.5

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Three Big Ideas

• The human population is increasing

rapidly and may soon bump up against
environmental limits
• Increasing use of resources per person
– Expanding the overall human ecological
footprint and putting a strain on the earth’s
resources

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Three Big Ideas (cont’d.)

• We can slow population growth by

reducing poverty through:
– economic development
– elevating the status of women
– encouraging family planning

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Tying It All Together: World Population
Growth and Sustainability

• Exponential growth is unsustainable in the

long run
• Employing solar and other renewable
technologies can help cut:
– Pollution
– Emissions of climate-changing gases
• Reuse and recycle materials
• Focus on preserving biodiversity
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