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Procedia Environmental Sciences 29 (2015) 304

Agriculture and Climate Change - Adapting Crops to Increased Uncertainty (AGRI 2015)

Uncertainties of climate change impacts in agriculture

Senthold Asseng
Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA

Abstract

Crop simulation models are often used to estimate the impact of climate change on agricultural production. But, simulated
climate change impacts vary across agricultural impact models due to differences in model structures and parameter values.
When comparing crop models with standardised inputs, uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with higher temperatures1
and CO2 concentrations2,3. These uncertainties in impact simulations are larger due to crop models, than due to downscaled
general circulation models2. Impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving model routines and parameters with detailed field
experimentations. However, multi-model ensemble medians also supply an improved prediction above individual models4. Less
uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity is needed to assist in the development of
adaptation strategies and policies.
© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
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References

1. Asseng, S. et al. Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 2015, 5, 143-147.
2. Asseng, S. et al. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change 2013, 3, 827-832.
3. O'leary, G. et al. Response of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment
and modelling in a semi-arid environment. Global Change Biology, 2014. doi:10.1111/gcb.12830.
4. Martre, P. et al. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Global Change Biology, 2014,
doi:10.1111/gcb.1276.

1878-0296 © 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of the Agriculture and Climate Change - Adapting Crops to Increased
Uncertainty (AGRI 2015)
doi:10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.276