UGEB 2836

Philosophy of Science

1. Inductivism (歸納主義)
2. Falsificationism (證偽主義)
3. Thomas Kuhn
4. Lakatos’ research programmes

1 2 3 4

Time
Lecture 3

§Induction (Main Focus)

§Problem of Induction
Scientist & Detective 科學家與偵探
Copi, I. M., Cohen, C., & McMahon, K. (2016). Introduction to logic. Routledge.
Chapter 13 Science and Hypothesis

A. Identifying the Problem

B. Devising Preliminary Hypotheses
C. Collecting Additional Facts
D. Formulating the Explanatory Hypothesis
E. Deducing Further Consequences
F. Testing the Consequences
G. Applying the Theory We don’t have the “all seeing eye”
《神探伽利略》

湯川學

向湯川秀樹 (Yukawa Hideki) 致敬

Induction 歸納法

牛頓：
「⾃然哲學的⽬的在於發現⾃然界
的結構與作⽤，並且盡可能的把它
們歸結為⼀些⼀般的法則 – ⽤觀察
和實驗來建立這些法則，從⽽演繹
出事物的原因和結果。」
Example
歸納法問題

§上圖中，所有的三角形都是紫色的。

§因為我們已經窮盡了，所有盒子內的物件，
所以這句用歸納法得到的判斷必定是對的。

§但，面對不能窮盡的情況呢？
Inductive Leap

Particular Universal
簡單列舉法 (Simple Enumeration）
天鵝#1是白色的 樣本上：
天鵝#2是白色的
天鵝#3是白色的 我們沒有見過世界上，所有的天鵝
天鵝#4是白色的 時間上：
天鵝#5是白色的 過去的天鵝，我未能親身驗證，
⋯⋯⋯⋯ . 而未來的天鵝，我也不能驗證。
所有天鵝都是白色的 - S1

S1 非常可能為真，但不保證為真
S1 為假
(俗語：萬功不能抵一過)

Time Line
《歸納法的悲劇》
羅素養了一隻哲學雞，每天定時定量餵食，經常帶
牠散步，對牠說話，久而久之，牠看起來像一隻有
智慧的雞。羅素餵雞時，必先搖鈴三下，接著雞就
出現，然後飽食一餐，這隻聰明的雞，學會了歸納
法。

一天有位年輕的哲學學者造訪，好客的羅素十分高
興，拿起搖鈴搖了起來，雖然這不是餵食時間，雞
還是出現，羅素捉住雞脖子，聰明的雞見主人面露
凶光，雞垂死掙扎說道：「主人，您也要殺我，難
道歸納法不可靠嗎？」
尋求「完美的歸納法」

目標：100% 保證到，這命題為真

T： C→OT
The principle of the uniformity of nature
自然齊一律 - PUN

A sequence of events in the future will occur as

it always has in the past

🌄
Hume‘s Objection

1. Necessary Truth? No
§Let us conceive a Possible World
that PUN is False.
2. Truth in this Actual World?
§By Experience
§Circular Argument Remark：
Cannot Proof ≠ False
This statement is not accurate.
We will discuss this issue later.
§ 1. An observation is made.
§ 2. A problem is defined or a question is asked.
§ 3. A hypothesis is proposed.
§ 4. A controlled experiment is set up.
§ 5. Data is collected and analyzed.
§ 6. Conclusions are made.
§ 7. Process is repeated to verify results.
§ Context of discovery Context of Justification
發現脈絡 證驗脈絡

Anything Goes!

3. A hypothesis is proposed. 6. Conclusions are made.

 Anything Goes!

Benzene ring

August Kekulé

http://hottopic.chinatimes.com/20160625002315-260809
How to Do Science?

§Cartesian LAW
Deduction
P7
P6
§Baconian
P2
Induction
P5 P4
P1 P3
電與磁的故事 1752 - 1887

Apparatus for the generation and storage of electricity, from

Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc.
 coulomb

Faradays
Hertz
Ampere
新現象！
Maxwell’s Equations
EM Wave
1. 有電荷的話，就會有電場
2. 磁極一定成對（N-S）出現
3. 磁場變動能產生電壓
4. 電流或變動的電場可產生磁場
EM Wave
§Asked about the ramifications of his discoveries,
§Hertz replied: "Nothing, I guess."
 Physical theory vs. theoretical physics

Theory

Small potatoes
Deduction apply physical
Big guys construct
theories
physical theories
 This statement is not
accurate.

Confirmation 核驗 We will discuss this

issue later.
Theory T：A → B
A Observed, B Observed
Prob (T is True ) Increase
1. The (Naïve) scientific method
§What mean by Naïve?

2. Scientific law are universal statement

§How about Probabilistic Laws?
a) Possibility 1: Lack of Knowledge
b) Possibility 2: Probabilistic by Nature
Theory (or Law)

理論 (T) 所有的金屬，若然溫度上升時，則長度都會增加。
條件 (C) 1. 金屬
2. 溫度上升
推論/結論 (E) 長度會增加
實驗過程 把受測驗的金屬樣本加熱

Symbol：

T： C→E
 Falsifiable
Yes
No

Pass the test? Not Science

Yes No
Not Rejected (Yet)
Deconfirm 反核驗

Confirm 核驗
Disproof “if A, then B”
Deconfirm 反核驗

A： Yes
B： No
A→B： False

例子：所有人，都喜歡食燒賣
Criteria for a Good Scientific Theory
1. Testability
2. Fruitfulness, or Predictability
3. Scope, or Comprehensiveness
4. Simplicity, or Economy
5. Conservatism, or Consistency with Existing Theories

T. Schick, Jr./L. Vaughn, How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age,
4th ed., New York: McGraw-Hill, 2005, chap. 7.
P1 P1
P2 P2 P4

P3 P3
Theory A Theory A

P1 P1
P2 P4 P2 P4

P3 Theory B P3

Theory C
ENDLESSLY 永無止境

P1

P2 P4

P3 P5

Theory C
Example: Blackbody Radiation

紅外線探熱器
Example: Blackbody Radiation

§ Theory A：
Ultraviolet Catastrophe

§ Theory B：
Infrared Catastrophe

§ Theory C：
Planck's law