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Guidelines for

Export Market
Research
S. Tamer Cavusgil

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$. Tamer Cavusgil is professor of mar-


keting and director of the Center for The realities of today's business
Business and Economic Research at Brad-
ley University, Peoria, Illinois. The author environment require that foreign markets
or coauthor of four books and more than
50 articles, he taught previously at the be sought systematically and continuously.
Middle East Technical University in Tur-
key and at the University of Wisconsin-- But most reference literature on the subject
Whitewater.
ignores the approaches that companies have
developed to assess their export market
opportunities. This article offers practical
guidelines based on in-depth interviews
with executives of 70 Midwestern exporting
companies.
hY and how do companies producers of consumer goods, and the

W actually conduct export


market research? How do
they identify foreign markets poten-
remaining companies were primarily
export intermediaries. Annual sales
ranged from $200,000 to $3 billion.
About one-third of the sample em-
tials? What sources of information do
they use? To answer these questions, ployed less than 100 full-time em-
we conducted personal interviews with ployees, and 42 percent had more
executives of 70 companies in Wis- than 500 employees.
consin and Illinois. The firms were at various stages in
In all cases, the respondent was the developing international marketing
executive principally responsible for programs. A few had started export
the international business activities of operations in just the past several
the firm. The two-hour interviews years. The remaining firms had ex-
covered a variety of topics, including port experience ranging from five to
the history of the company's inter- well over 50 years. The sample also
national involvement, the nature of varied in the percentage of total com-
current international activities, the pany sales exported. Twenty-eight
scope of export market research in percent of the firms studied had ex-
the company, and major company port sales that accounted for up to 9
characteristics. percent of their company sales. The
Approximately one-half of the firms remaining firms were divided almost
in the sample were manufacturers of equally among the following exports/
industrial products, 29 percent were total sales ratios: 10-19 percent; 20-

Business Horizons/ November-December 1985


"Few of us know even simple facts
about the geography, culture, and economics
of countries other than our own. Even fewer people
have at their fingertips details that tell
whether their goods will sell in a
particular market."

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39 percent; and more than 40 per- still other cases, they ask for research approach that appears suitable for one
cent. on more markets than, given the market may not be satisfactory for an-
budget, can be investigated in depth. other.
The Nature of Major questions the companies ill Frequency of identifying and ana-
Export Market'Research our study addressed through export lyzing new foreign market opportun-
market research include: ities was characterized as "infrequent"
Market research is as impor- • In which foreign markets can (40 percent) or "occasional" (28 per-
tant in foreign markets as company products be sold profitably? cent) by the firms we studied. The
it is at home. Market re- • Which countries offer the best complexity of foreign market re-
search involves applying logic and ob- prospects? search was characterized as "very sim-
jectivity to the systematic design, • What sales volume and margins ple" (24 percent) or "simple" (33
collection, analysis, and reporting of can be expected in each market? percent). Only about 14 percent of
the data and findings. The informa- • Does the foreign market require the respondents employed rigorous
tion gained from the research helps any modification of the product? techniques, such as regression or
reduce uncertainty, pinpoint solu- • What distribution channels and econometric forecasting, in analyzing
tions, and d e t e r m i n e a p p r o p r i a t e arrangements should be employed in foreign market research data. Simi-
marketing strategies. selling to a particular country? larly, only about one-third of the com-
Few of us know even simple facts • How sensitive is the market de- panies had formalized their research
about the geography, cuhure, and mand to product price? activities with written procedures and
econoinics of countries other than our • What should the landed price be? clear definition of responsibilities. Re-
own. Even fewer people have at their Retail price? search reports prepared by the staff
fingertips details that tell whether • What p e r f o r m a n c e criteria in this regard typically stayed at the
their goods will sell in a particular should be used to monitor company middle-management level, suggest-
market. Therefore, export issues must activity in each foreign market? ing that top management attached lit-
be carefully researched before the de- Perhaps the most important con- tle importance to export market
cision is made to enter a foreign mar- cern of export market research is the research.
ket. Of course companies can bypass identification of attractive foreign Why is export market research gen-
marketing research if there is little at markets for company products and erally more subjective and less precise
stake. An example of this is a firm that the assessment of sales potentials in each than domestic market research? Ex-
chooses simply to respond to unsolic- selected market. T h e other major ecutives usually attributed the differ-
ited orders from foreign customers. purpose of export market research ence to the limited experience of
However, when the risks are substan- relates to distribution--the identifica- managers in conducting export mar-
tial, it is essential to clarify certain is- tion, selection, motivation, and eval- ket research and the difficuhies en-
sues before committing greater uation of foreign distributors and c o u n t e r e d in g a t h e r i n g relevant,
resources. In some cases, companies agents. For many firms these two tasks accurate, and timely information. The
know what specific markets they want are the most problematic, and many nature and complexity of export mar-
investigated when they sponsor mar- marketers view them as the primary ket research is very much a function
ket research, and they provide suffi- challenge of export marketing. Al- of a company's international involve-
cient funds to cover field research in though substantial resources may be ment and the risks it encounters.
each market. But very often they have expended for export marketing re- When the amount at stake is mar-
not decided on particular markets and search, managers note that they have ginal, managers prefer to make de-
conduct the research ill order to find yet to develop a "perfect" procedure cisions on the basis of limited research,
out which are the most promising.. In for dealing with these two tasks. An aided by 'Judgment calls." This is il-
Guidelines for Export Market Research

lustrated well by Nicolet Instruments, ful when it is ongoing and systematic. able to management through such
a Madison, Wisconsin, producer of Nevertheless, some companies viewed efforts.
sophisticated scientific instruments. export market research as an inter- It is also important for manage-
One executive puts it this way: mittent activity and approached it ment to recognize that export market
"When we go into a foreign market on haphazardly. research is no substitute for judg-
an agent basis, we do not engage in any Essential questions in conducting ment. Market researchers should al-
in-depth analysis since our investment is export market research so that it is ways attempt to understand the reason
small. It may be a blind decision. I f the most beneficial to a company include: behind the events and bare facts. In
agent sends someone here for training, we • Has management developed an order to understand future develop-
know he is committed and seriolo. When export marketing program with ac- ments, they must know not only what
we make a direct investment in a foreign companying market research tasks? has happened, but also why it hap-
market, there's more risk involved. We will • Does management understand pened. They also should investigate
then engage in an in-depth analysis. Much that foreign market research is an on- the implications of current and past
of our potential in that market is probably going activity? trends on their company and its sales.
established by a representative prior to that • Have procedures been devel- F u r t h e r m o r e , export market re-
move." oped to monitor, evaluate, and cor- search should always search for the 29
The stage of company internation- rect export marketing performance? most specific information concerning
alization is also a significant deter- • Has the firm provided means for the company's products. Market de-
minant of the nature and complexity timely warning of pertinent changes mand for a tvpe of product, such as
of export market research. The ex- in foreign markets? medical equipment, should not be
tent of international involvement, • Does the export market research confused with the potential demand
which varies from opportunistic to seek the most specific information for a specific brand.
fully-committed exporting, dictates concerning the firm's products?
the nature of research and the types • Is mature judgment being ap- Researching Foreign Market Poten-
of information to be gathered, t plied to the facts developed by the tials: A Sequential Approach
Company executives consider" ex- export market research efforts?
n most of the firms we studied,
port market research to be most use-
1. See S. T a m e r Cavusgil, "Differences
Among Exporting Firms Based on Their De-
gree of lnternationalization,'Journal of Business
Specific export market research
.tasks should be identified in the
framework of an overall export mar-
I the process of analyzing foreign
market opportunities was fairly
unstructured. How important man-
Research, June 1984: 195-208, and S. Tamer keting plan. The company should en- agers considered foreign market op-
Cavusgil, "International IVlarketing Research: sure that the necessary information portunity analysis depended on how
Insights into Company Practices," in Research
in Marketing, vol. 7, ed. Jagdish N. Sheth
for monitoring, evaluating, and cor- important they considered exporting.
(Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press, 1984): 261-288. recting export activity is made avail- That is, if they placed a low emphasis
on exporting, they attached a low level
of importance to the analysis.
The process usually had evolved
Figure 1 from one person's handling the job
Researching Foreign Market Potentials: A Sequential Process or a series of exporting "change
agents." Many companies employed
Stage One experienced international marketing
PRELIMINARY SCREENING FOR MARKETS IN ATTRACTIVE COUNTRIES people who had a good grasp of the
potential for their industry in differ-
Key. Question To Be Answered:
Which foreign markets warrant detailed investigation? ent countries of the world. Others
found it difficult to hire or train in-
dividuals for international positions.
Stage Two Since the number of world markets
ASSESSMENT OF INDUSTRY MARKET POTENTIAL to be considered by a company is very
large, it is neither possible nor advis-
Ke~ Question To Be Answered: able to research them all. Thus, a
What is the aggregate demand
in each of the selected markets? firm's time and money is spent most
efficiently and effectively in a sequen-
"qp tial screening process. This process,
Stage Three illustrated in Figure 1, eliminates
COMPANY SALES POTENTIAL ANALYSIS many unsuitable countries from the
large number of available alterna-
Key Question To Be Answered: tives. Although many of the compa-
How attractive is the potential demand nies we studied had not developed a
for company products?
formal procedure for analyzing for-
eign market opportunities, some of
the experienced exporters employed • Similarities and differences in re- Local Distribution and Production:
an approach that tends to support the lation to home market
value of such a sequential process. • Language and other cultural con- • Availability of intermediaries
siderations • Regional and local transportation
Stage One: Preliminary Screening facilities
The export marketer will eliminate • Availability of manpower
The first stage in this sequential some foreign markets from further • Conditions for local manufacture
screening process for the company is consideration on the basis of this pre-
to select the more attractive countries liminary screening. An example would Indicators of population, income
that it wants to investigate in detail. be the absence of comparable or link- levels, and c o n s u m p t i o n patterns
Preliminary screening involves defin- ing products and services, a defi- should be considered. In addition,
ing the physical, political, economic, ciency that would hinder the potential statistics on local production trends,
and cultural environment. Among the for marketing company products. along with imports and exports of the
factors to be included in each cate- product category, are helpful for as-
gory are the following. sessing industry market potential.
Stage Two: Analysis of Often, an industry will have a few key
30
Industry Market Potential indicators or measures that will help
Demographic~Physical Environment:
them determine the industry strength
• Population size, growth, density Once several attractive countries and demand within a foreign market.
• Urban and ruraldistribution have been selected for further study, A manufacturer of medical equip-
• Climate and weather variations the firm is ready for the second stage ment, for example, may use the num-
• Shipping distance of the screening process. This stage ber of hospital beds, the number of
• Product-significant demographics involves assessing industry market surgeries, and public expenditures for
• Physical distribution and commu- potential for each selected foreign health care as indicators to assess the
nication network market. At this stage, the company potential for its products.
• Natural resources will want to determine the present and
future aggregate demand for the in- Stage Three: Analysis of
Political Environment: dustry within the selected markets. Company Sales Potential
Factors to be studied at this stage in-
• System of government clude market access, product poten- The third stage of the screening
• Political stability and continuity tial, and local distribution and process invoh, es assessing company
• Ideological orientation production. sales potential in those countries that
• Government involvement in busi- prove promising based upon the ear-
ness Market Access: lier analyses. The issues that must be
• Government involvement in com- addressed at this stage include fore-
munications • Limitations on trade: tariff levels, casting sales volume, landed cost, cost
• Attitudes toward foreign business quotas of internal distribution, and other de-
(trade restrictions, tariffs, nontariff • Documentation and import regu- terminants of profitability.
barriers, bilateral trade agreements) lations
• National economic and develop- • Local standards, practices, and Sales Volume Forecasting:
mental priorities other nontariff barriers
• Patents and trademarks • Size and concentration of customer
Economic Environment: • Preferential treaties segments
• Legal considerations: investment, • Projected consumption statistics
• Overall level of development taxation, repatriation, employment, • Competitive pressures
• Economic growth: GNP, industrial code of laws • Expectations of local distributors/
sector agents
• Role of foreign trade in the econ- Product Potential:
omy Landed Cost:
• Currency: inflation rate, availabil- • Customer needs and desires
ity, controls, stability of exchange rate • Local production, imports, con- • Costing method for exports
• Balance of payments sumption • Domestic distribution costs
• Per capita income and distribution • Exposure to and acceptance of • International freight and insur-
• Disposable income and expendi- product ance
ture patterns • Availability of linking products • Cost of product modification
• Industry-specific key indicators of
Social/Cultural Environment: demand Cost of Internal Distribution:
• Attitudes toward products of for-
• Literacy rate, educational level eign origin • Tariffs and duties
• Existence of middle class • Competitive offerings • Value added tax
Guidelines for Export Market Research

" . . . some type of primary data collection


usually will be undertaken in the foreign market,
sometimes with the assistance of market research
firms. One of the best ways to gather this
information is to visit potential foreign
end users and distributors."

31

• Local packaging and assembly nals. The firms in our study also value contrary, managers may be overloaded
• Margins/commission allowed for surveys or direct mail campaigns to with information and have difficulty
the trade end users or distributors. in sorting out what is relevant, useful,
• Local distribution and inventory Sources of Information timely, and consistent with other
COSTS for Export Market Research sources of the same information. As
• Promotional expenditures one executive noted, one has to de-
~"~ ompanies can obtain export velop a sense of familiarity and his-
Other Determinants of Profitability: ~[ j market research data from a tory with a source of information and
variety of sources. These in- be cautious about interpreting statis-
• Going price levels clude the U.S. Department of Com- tics, especially those prepared by the
• Competitive strengths and weak- merce (DOC) and other governmental developing countries.
nesses agencies; international organizations Even the U.S. DOC information
• Credit practices such as the Organization for Eco- may not be satisfactory. An executive
• Current and projected exchange nomic Cooperation and Development of Nicolet Instruments indicated that,
rates (OECD), United Nations Food and while the firm receives well over half
Agriculture Organization (FAO), of its information from the U.S. DOC
Competitive information in the for- United Nations Conference on Trade publications, it needs to "filter it out."
eign market is often very valuable in and Development (UNCTAD), and With these publications, he says, the
determining export prices and, hence, General Agreement on Tariffs and firm "becomes aware of the trends;
export profitability. To help project Trade (GATT); service organizations you get a number to start with." But
sales, factors such as quality, design, such as banks; export trading com- he adds, "You still have to interpret
sizing, and packaging should also be panies, trade associations and world it with a critical eye."
compared to competitive offerings. trade clubs; as well as a multitude of Many executives noted that they
Much of the information needed for private research organizations and often travel abroad to support the sta-
the first and second stage of oppor- their publications. 2 tistics and to meet foreign customers
tunity analysis can be g a t h e r e d The U.S. DOC assistance programs and distributors. While they may be
through desk research--for example, are varied to suit the needs of com- costly, trips to foreign markets appear
documentary sources, international panies at different stages of interna- to be the preferred way of gathering
business publications, and so on. In tionalization. These include business foreign market information.
contrast, the third stage, estimating counseling, new product information U.S. DOC sources of information
company sales and profitability, often service, agent/distributor services, and assistance are likely to be more
requires field research. Therefore, trade opportunities program, catalog satisfactory for smaller firms and those
some type of primary data collection exhibitions, trade missions, and many new to exporting. In contrast, the
usually will be undertaken in the for- others. F i g u r e 2 identifies various larger and more involved firms tend
eign market, sometimes with the as- sources based upon the particular type to have developed their own more so-
sistance of market research firms. One of information sought. phisticated information bases. These
of the best ways to gather this infor- In our interviews, we found that firms also rely to a greater extent on
mation is to visit potential foreign end there is no lack of data on interna- private sector suppliers, such as Busi-
users and distributors. Industry trade tional markets and marketing. On the ness International, Dun and Brad-
shows and fairs are also useful in siz- street, Predicasts, and the
2. S. T a m e r Cavusgil, "Public Policy Impli-
ing up the competition and in meet- cations of Research on the Export Behavior of
international departments of major
ing potential distributors. Adver- Firms," Akron Business and Economic Review, banks.
tisements can be placed in tradejour- Summer 1983: 16-22.
As firms gain m o r e e x p e r i e n c e with Figure 2
exporting, they may become dissat-
isfied for various reasons with the Sources of Information for Export Market Research
quality o f available information. Be- ry/,,' q U.S. D@t. ,~
sides their potential errors, data ob- In.lbrmatio. Commerce Sources Other Sources
tained from different sources may be
contradictory. How does one know Foreign market Business America Business ! nternational
intorntation Foreign Economic Trends Dun & Bradstreet
which source is reliable? International
Overseas Business
M u l t i n a t i o n a l c o r p o r a t i o n s are Chase World In formation
Reports
m o r e likely to d e p e n d on p r i v a t e International Econonaic Corp.
sources o f information. For example, I ndicatt>rs Stanford Research Institute
S. C. J o h n s o n , o f Racine, Wisconsin, International Trade
uses A. C. Nielsen data collected in Reporter
each foreign market. Syndicated re- Accot,ntiqg lirms
search data gathered from each mar-
32 ket a p p e a r to better suit their needs. Export market Cottntry Market Sectmal Market research firms
S e c o n d a r y sources o f i n f o r m a t i o n , research Survevs Advertising agencies
Global Market Surveys l~ublishing companies
such as Business International pub-
International Market Trade associations
lications or g o v e r n m e n t statistics, pro-
Research
vide more general information, such
as economic indicators, political sta- International statistics Export Statistics Ih'olile Pvedicasts
bility, and the exchange rate fluctua- Custom Service Statistics U.S. Foreign Trade Reports
tions. Llnited Nations
Data o b t a i n e d f r o m s e c o n d a r y Iruevnatiorml Monetary
sources are usually too broad to be l:und
usefdl for predicting c o m p a n y sales OECD, EEC, (;ATT
potential. In addition, f r e q u e n t polit-
ical and economic changes in many Overseas Customized Export Banks, chambers of
representatives Mailing last commerce, consulting
foreign markets may limit substan-
Workt Traders Data tirms
tially the usefulness o f projections for Reports
a country. Because o f these problems, Agent/Distributor Scvvicc
companies tend to s u p p l e m e n t quan-
titative data with the subjective j u d g - Sales leads Trade Opl~ortunities Banks, chaml)ers o1"
ments o f executives. Program commerce, consulting
Strategic and Industrial lirms
l:'roduct Sales (;roup State develol)nmnt agencies
PractiCal Approaches to Identifying Major Export I'rojects
Foreign Market Opportunities Program
Export Information
cademicians have e x h o r t e d Refercncc Room

A companies to employ tech-


niques such as input-output
analysis, income elasticity measures,
Reference data on
foreign lirms
World Traders Data
Reports
Banks, chanfi)ers o[
('Olll lllercc, consulting
lh-ms
econometric forecasting, and macro- State develol+ment agencies
surveys in international market re-
search? In reality, however, • Using existing distributors as a Distributors as a Source for
companies find little use for these the- source o f information about devel- Identifying Foreign Market
oretical techniques. Companies ap- oping market opportunities; Opportunities
parently develop approaches that suit
• Directing p r o m o t i o n to prospec-
their own needs for estimating for-
tive distributors or other customers; Companies, large and small, expe-
eign market potential. Five specific
approaches are: r i e n c e d a n d i n e x p e r i e n c e d , have
• Participating in overseas trade learned that perhaps the best way o f
• fairs and shows; identifying market potentials is to use
3. See, for example, Reed Moyer, "Inter-
national Market Analysis,"Journal of Marketing their foreign distributor/agent con-
Research, November 1968: 353-360, and St,san • Following m a j o r contractors tacts. Because o f their local market
P. Douglas, C. Samuel Craig, and Warren J. a r o u n d the world; and presence, familiarity with customer
Keegan, "'Approaches to Assessing Interna-
tional Marketing Opportunities for Small and needs, and contact with governmental
Medium-Sized Companies," ColumbiaJournal of • Using trade audits for assessing agencies, distributors are often the
World Business, Fall 1982: 26-31. market potential. best source o f valuable and timely in-
Guidelines for Export Market Research

formation about market develop- Following Other Suppliers Around trade. No more. We begin by listing the
ments. Consequently, the more the World key questions we want answered, and in
experienced companies tend to shift some cases it is an omnibus list: First, what
much of the opportunity analysis and A few of the companies we studied accounts are we in, and where aren't we?
identification function to capable dis- had been able to expand their sup- What is our penetration of the market by
tributors and representatives. plier relationships with some of their distribution channel (e.g., jewelry, station-
In addition, they establish fairly domestic customers to overseas mar- ery, gift shop, pharmacy and other out-
formalized communication channels kets. These customers typically are lets)? Second, how does the trade regard
for a free and frequent flow of infor- large multinationals involved in con- us? What is our company's image in the
mation from those closest to the mar- tract manufacturing, turnkey opera- eyes of the trade concerning quality of our
ket back to headquarters. General tions, or foreign production abroad. products, discounts, terms, sales calls, de-
Electric Medical Division, in Wauke- Thus, it is often desirable to explore liveries, after-sales service, and other as-
sha, Wisconsin, for example, achieves the possibility of supplying multina- pects? Third, what is our visibility in the
this through their formalized country tional customers in overseas projects. store? How well are our displays (space
planning processes. For example, Snap-on-Tools, of and technique) versus competition? What
Kenosha, Wisconsin, regularly iden- is the client's view of our advertising? Most 33
Advertising Directed to Prospective tifies large construction projects popular and most successful promotions?
Distributors or Other Customers abroad where American companies Best and worst selling products? Fourth,
are involved. It then contacts these what are the characteristics of the gift mar-
companies with an offer to supply ket versus personal purchase market? What
Many companies have found it use-
tools. are the most important factors in buying a
ful to generate inquiries and subse-
A similar approach is followed by gift? Gift box? Price? Clerk? Etc.
q u e n t orders by advertising their
EduSystems of Fontana, Wisconsin. "We normally conduct trade audits us-
products in trade journals, directo-
This small concern sells complete ing a team of 10 to 15 people and always
ries, or other publications. Still others
packages of vocational education include people from the outside so that we
engage in direct mail campaigns in
products to foreign governments. In assure objectivity. This team will spend one
order to uncover potentials.
addition to providing all of the equip- or two weeks combing major trading cen-
Managers are pleasantly surprised
ment needed for a vocational or tech- ters. They are given maps each day and
to find that English-language Amer-
nical school, EduSystems plans, told to cover a certain number of square
ican trade journals often circulate in
designs, purchases, consolidates, blocks. Each is equipped with a standard
foreign countries and thus reach pro-
ships, and installs the equipment. The questionnaire. We have called on as few
spective customers. Unsolicited in-
company identifies new opportunities as 300 accounts during an audit and as
quiries often result from these
by monitoring announcements of new many as 900."
publications, as well as from favorable
educational projects from funding
word-of-mouth publicity generated by In addition to providing the com-
agencies such as the World Bank and
satisfied customers. pany with a realistic profile of how it
the Agency for International Devel-
opment, as well as by tracking the an- stands in a particular market (for ex-
nouncements of individual countries. ample, penetration of the market,
Participation in Trade Fairs perception of company products, sales
Then the company engages in a bid-
ding process to secure a contract. terms, delivery, service), trade audits
A related approach to delineating can help identify competitive strengths
foreign market opportunities is Trade Audits and weaknesses. To the extent that a
through attendance at foreign trade representative portion of the trade is
A technique that is especially suit- surveyed and objectivity in data col-
fairs and shows. In some cases, thou-
able for consumer goods companies lection is assured, trade audits can be
sands of buyers from around the
is a trade audit. Parker Pen Company reliable in estimating potential de-
world congregate at international
of Janesville, Wisconsin, has refined mand for company products.
trade fairs for specific industry
this approach and finds it very useful
branches. Companies in our sample iven the increasing impor-
generally rated trade fairs high in ef-
fectiveness. With the assistance of the
U.S. DOC, even small companies with
limited resources can participate.
in its international market research.
With trade audits, a company at-
tempts to size up the market potential
from the perspective of the channel
G .tance of international busi-
ness opportunities, com-
panies need to be more methodical in
members. A senior vice president of their approach to identifying and cul-
According to an executive at Re- Parker Pen describes that company's tivating export market opportunities.
search Products Inc., of Madison, use o f trade audits in the following Systematic export market research can
Wisconsin, trade fairs are "probably facilitate successful international
way:
one way that anyone trying to make "With trade audits, it is important to business involvement. []
assessments of foreign markets can understand that we are viewing the poten-
gain a tremendous amount of infor- tial from the eyes and the level of the retail
mation."

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