Lecture 09 BTM 4803 Technology Management Islamic University of

Technology (IUT)

Topic: Technology Assessment

Course Instructor: Dr. Iftheker A Khan

Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project:
Total 41 Spans (Steel-Structure)

How can you determine

the utility of Arc
welding technology for
fabricating Spans of
Padma Bridge?
 • Evaluating a technology for • We also need to ask how
Determining its utility means comparing a particular technology
the utility of it with other technologies. will fit into the firm with
its given organization and
• We do not only ask
Arc welding whether a particular
skills.
• What impacts the
technology technology will do the job,
but also whether it will do it technology might have
for fabricating better, cheaper, or more
easily than an alternative
and what side-effects it
might cause, whether on
a specific technology. the product, the
workforce, the factory
metal environment, or on the
wider environment.
structure.

We are looking for answers!

Current Context Technology has become one of the
principal weapons in the competitive
struggle between firms.

It can be used both tactically and

strategically.

How well a firm performs depends to a

considerable extent on how well it
Tactics are the specific actions
or steps you undertake to
understands, masters and uses technology.
accomplish your strategy.
Technology assessment is the tool, or the frame of mind, that
allows firms to examine technologies in depth and with foresight in
the context of the firm’s interests and capabilities, as well as in the
context of the society the firm lives in.
Technology Assessment

• TA is the study and evaluation of • It is based on the conviction that

new technologies. new developments within, and

• It is a way of trying to forecast and discoveries by, the scientific

prepare for the upcoming community are relevant for the

technological advancements and world at large rather than just for the

their repercussions to the society, scientific experts themselves, and

and then make decisions based on that technological progress can

the judgments. never be free of ethical implications.

In ordinary everyday sense:
• The essential meaning of technology is
evaluating a particular technology or
technology in general.
• Evaluating means some kind of
measure.
• The measure we apply depends on the
purpose for which we are evaluating.
Technology Assessment:
is a form of policy research which
provides a comprehensive evaluation
of technology to decision makers. It
identifies the policy issues, assess the
consequences of alternative courses of
action, and presents findings as
guidelines for decision making.
Technology Assessment

1970: US 1971: Bill to

1950-1960 Congress denial establish an 1972:
to support Office of Establishment of
Beginning of TA supersonic Technology OTA
project Assessment

Technology assessment was initially practiced in the 1960s in the United States where it
would focus on analyzing the significance of "supersonic transportation, pollution of the
environment and ethics of genetic screening.
Technology Assessment
Ordinary everyday sense:
evaluating a particular
technology, or technology in
general, in some way.
The essential meaning of
In context of Technology
technology assessment is that
Management: it is a systematic
making technological choices
attempt to foresee the
should be proceeded by a through
consequences of introducing a
analysis of all consequences the
particular technology in all
choice might have, not just the
spheres it is likely to interact with.
immediate or sought for
consequence.
People looking at their very own technological Technology assessment is a
innovation tend not to observe the environment in means of avoiding too narrow a
which it exists and tend to see only tomorrow and view—tunnel vision—and too short
forget the more distant future. a time horizon—myopia.
Taking a narrow and short-sighted view makes people
Nearsightedness (myopia) is a
prone to committing grave errors of judgement. common vision condition in
which you can see objects
Insular: Neglecting other views near to you clearly, but objects
& Parochial: Narrow thinking farther away are blurry.

Technology Assessment: WHY?

New technologies can have a range of effects, potentially
both positive and disruptive, that TAs can explore.

significant primary,
TA is the thorough
secondary, indirect, of a technological
and balanced
and delayed innovation
analysis of
interactions

the present and

with society, the foreseen
environment, and consequences and
the economy and effects of those
interactions
Technology Assessment
• TAs are significant given the growing effects Recent disruptive technology
of S&T on society, economy, and other areas. examples include e-

• Technological change can be positive, but commerce, online news

also disruptive, making it critical for the sites, ride-sharing apps, and

policymakers to understand and evaluate the GPS systems. In their own

effects of technology—for example, to ensure times, the automobile,

national security and global competitiveness electricity service, and

are maintained. television were disruptive

technologies.
 Avoidance of unpleasant surprises.

Optimum use of technology.

Purpose of
Technology
Assessment This can be achieved only if the technology is
viewed as part of a whole system of production,
including all the hardware, software, people and
environment in the broadest sense.
Purpose of Technology Assessment
TAs help policymakers understand and evaluate the effects of technology by:
a) Highlighting potential short, medium, and long-term effects of a technology
b) Elaborating on and communicating the challenges and benefits associated
with a technology, including early insights into the potential effects of a
technology
c) Highlighting the status, viability, relative maturity, and public and private uses
of a technology
d) Supporting planning and evaluation of investments in S&T
e) Describing the regulatory environment of a technology
f) Exploring ethical, legal, and social questions that may arise from the
application of a technology
Technology
Includes multi-variant analysis:
Assessment many variables with different units of measures are considered.

Concerned with multi-order impacts:

direct as well as indirect impacts are considered.

Incorporate multi-consistency effect:

needs of a wide range of social groups are concerned.

Implies multi-disciplinary approach:

all aspects of human life are considered.

Involves dynamic features:

continues interaction between technology and surroundings are considered.

Requires multi-criteria optimization:

both maximization of positive and minimization of negative effects are considered.

Demands multi-timeframe balancing:

both short term want, and long-term needs are considered.
Basic Methodology for TA

Step 1: Time, Scope, Time Horizon

Step 2: Technology, Technology System & Development

Step 3: Benefits of Technology

Step 4: Effects of Technology

Step 5: Support & Control for Technology

Lecture 10 BTM 4803 Technology Management Islamic University of
Technology (IUT)

Topic: Technology Assessment

Course Instructor: Dr. Iftheker A Khan

Technology Assessment
Ordinary everyday sense:
evaluating a particular
technology, or technology in
general, in some way.
The essential meaning of
In context of Technology
technology assessment is that
Management: it is a systematic
making technological choices
attempt to foresee the
should be proceeded by a through
consequences of introducing a
analysis of all consequences the
particular technology in all
choice might have, not just the
spheres it is likely to interact with.
immediate or sought for
consequence.
 The effects of technology: Consequences of TELEVISION

At times, technologies 1st People have a new source of entertainment and enlightenment in
have unintended Order their homes.
consequences that
combine to have serious 2nd People stay home more, rather than going out to local clubs and bars
impacts undreamed of by Order where they would meet their fellows.
the creators of the
3rd Residents of a community do not meet so often and therefore do not
technology.
Order know each other so well (also, people become less dependent on
other people for entertainment).
CONSEQUENCES
OF TELEVISION 4th Strangers to each other, community members find it difficult to unite
Order to deal with common problems; individuals find themselves
• Adapted from Coates
increasingly isolated and alienated from their neighbors.
1971 5th Isolated from their neighbors, members of a family depend more on
• Demonstrates how Order each other for satisfaction of most of their psychological needs.
television may have
helped to break down 6th When spouses are unable to meet heavy psychological demands that
community life. Order each makes on the other, frustration occurs; this may lead to divorce.
Different Steps in TA
Different Researchers have proposed steps of TA
1. Braun (1998)
2. Porter et al. (1980) • Dr. Alan Porter is director of the Technology
Policy and Assessment Center and Professor of
3. Coates (1976) industrial and systems engineering and of public
4. Jones et al. (1971) policy at Georgia Tech., USA
• Ernest Braun was an Emeritus Professor and
Former Head of Technology Policy Unit, Aston
University, UK

1. Technology in Context Technology assessment for Managers by Ernest Braun (1998)

2. Porter, A.L. (1995) Technology Assessment, Impact Assessment, 13:2, 135-151
3. Porter et al. 1980. A Guidebook for Technology Assessment and Impact Analysis. New York: North
Holland.
4. Martin V. Jones et al., A Technology Assessment Methodology (7 vols.; Washington, D.C.: MITRE
Corporation, 1971)
5. Hetman, F. (1973) Society and the Assessment of Technology, Paris: OECD
Questions to Develop Steps of TA

What dangers does

the technology harbor
and what can be done
What benefits does to control them?
the technology bring
with it, who will
What is the benefit from it, and
technology we are what help does it need
talking about, how to be given?
does it relate to
competing and
complementary
technologies, and how
is it likely to develop?
Original General Methodology for TA
(Jones et al., 1971)

1. Define the assessment task: discuss relevant issues and any major problems;
establish scope (breadth and depth) of enquiry; develop project ground rules;
2. Describe relevant technologies: describe major technology being assessed; describe
other technologies supporting the major technology; describe technologies competitive
to the major and supporting technologies;
3. Develop state-of-society assumptions: identify and describe major non-technological
factors influencing the application of the relevant technologies;
4. Identify impact areas: ascertain those societal characteristics that will be most
influenced by the application of the assessed technology;
5. Make preliminary impact analysis: trace and integrate the process by which the
assessed technology makes its societal influence felt;
6. Identify possible action options: develop and analyze various programs for obtaining
maximum public advantage from the assessed technologies;
7. Complete impact analysis: analyze the degree to which each option would alter the
specific societal impacts of the assessed technology discussed in step 5
10 elements of TA
(Coates, 1976)

1. Examine problem statements

2. Specify system alternatives
3. Identify possible impacts
4. Evaluate impacts
5. Identify the decision apparatus
6. Identify action options for decision apparatus
7. Identify parties and interests
8. Identify macro system alternatives (other routes to goal)
9. Identify exogenous variables or events possibly having effect on 1 – 8
10. Conclusion (recommendation)
10 Steps of TA Problem Definition

(Porter et al.,1980)
Technology Social Context
Description & Description &
1. Problem Definition Forecast Forecast
2. Technology Description
3. Technology Forecasting
4. Social Description Impact-
5. Societal Forecasting
6. Identification of Assessment Factors
Identification
7. Impact Analysis Analysis
8. Impact Evaluation Evaluation
9. Policy Analysis
10. Conclusion and Recommendation Policy
Analysis

Communication of
Results
Basic Methodology for TA: STIP
(Braun, 1998)
Step 1: Topic, Scope, Time Horizon

The basic methodology

Step 2: Technology, Technology
may be summed up as: System & Development
scope, technology, impacts,
policy (STIP). Step 3: Benefits of Technology

Step 4: Unwanted Effects of Technology

Step 5: Analysis of Policy Option

(Support & Control for Technology)
Technology assessment of telecommunications

• We assume that it is carried out in about 1990 on behalf of a public

telecommunications operator (PTT) who holds a near monopoly in a small
European country (the client).
• The team of analysts for this TA consists of a telecommunications
engineer, an economist, a policy analyst, a lawyer and a generalist team
leader, well versed in TA.
• The team consults with stake-holders, such as the management of the
client company, telephone users, officials of the ministry in charge of
telecommunications, telephone equipment manufacturers, operators of
mobile telephones and of cable and satellite television.
Technology assessment of telecommunications

• A market research organization is used to make a forecast of various

modes of telecommunications traffic.
• Members of an advisory committee, consisting of several stakeholders
and further experts (a sociologist, engineers and economists), serve as
advisers to the team and critically read early versions of the report.
• The final report consists of 300 pages of print and a thirty-page executive
summary.
• The clients consent to making the executive summary widely available.

STIP Methodology for TA

 A. What is to be the topic?
The technologies to be described and for which a development path is to be forecast
are:
• Telephone switching technologies
• Transmission technologies
Step 1: scope
of the
• Domestic and commercial customer premises
assessment • equipment (CPE)
and time • New modes of traffic additional to voice telephony
horizon
B. What would be the scope?
The assessment should look into technological and probable
cost developments in these areas and at likely patterns of
Step 1: Topic, Scope, consumption. The main impacts to be studied are:
Time Horizon • Employment projects in the telecommunications industry
• (operators and equipment manufacturers)
• Changes in the terms of trade
• The impact of regulatory developments (including European integration) on the
client, on telecommunications users and on the general economy.

C. What would be the time horizon?

In view of very rapid technological and regulatory developments in the industry, the
agreed time horizon for the study was to be ten years only.
Step 1: Topic, Scope, Time Horizon
• Questions to Clarify:
a) What is the topic?
b) What would be the scope?
c) What would be the time horizon?
• Topic:
a) The topic is usually a technology.
b) It may be a social problem that might be ameliorated by the application of
technology.
• Things to remember:
a) It could be Technology-oriented TA or a Problem-oriented TA.
b) In the case of public policy, the technology or problem to be assessed must
be of some interest and concern to the legislators. It must thus be a
technology that is on the political agenda either because it might require
public support or because it might have to be controlled by legislation, or
both.
Step 1: Topic, Scope, Time Horizon
• Scope:
a) Scope clarifies whether we should look at only one narrowly defined
technology and its immediate rivals or look at the major bundle of
technologies serving related purposes.

• Things to remember:
a) Scope should not be too narrow, or the assessment will be unlikely to
reveal anything of great interest.
b) Scope should not be wide, or it will become expensive and also
unmanageable and unlikely to prove of much practical help to the decision
maker.
c) Example: TA to look into the future of hydrogen as a fuel for motor cars, or
is it to be concerned with the future of road transport?
Step 1: Topic, Scope, Time Horizon
• Time Horizon:
a) When deciding on the scope of the topic, we also need to decide on the
time horizon to be covered.

• Things to remember:
a) If the time is too long: brings with it very great uncertainties
b) If the time is too short: may be insufficient to reveal truly important aspects
of the problem.
 A. What is the technology we are talking about?
The technologies to be described are all undergoing rapid
development. The most striking thing: rival technologies for all
Step 2:
Description of traditional telephone equipment are being emerged.
the
technologies

B. How does it fit into the technological system?

Step 2: Technology, • Transmission media: the humble twisted pair of copper wires
Technology System
& Development →the addition of microwave transmitter → satellites → glass
fibers (lower price and greater bandwidth).
• Computer compression techniques: Reduce the amount of
information that needs to be transmitted, even though a lot of
information is passed on.
 C. How does it fit into the technological system?
• The mode of Transmission: analogue → digital → equip all exchanges
(central offices) with digital equipment →ISDN (integrated services digital
network).
Step 2: • Change in subscriber’s premises: facsimile machines, answering
Description of machines, computers linked to the telephone network, (electronic mail is
the
technologies developing, but the internet is still nebulous), videotelephony, especially
used for conferencing.
D. How is it likely to develop?
Many new services are being introduced or envisaged:
Step 2: Technology, • Mobile telephony is spreading rapidly.
Technology System • Home banking, home shopping, cash machines, teleconferencing,
& Development distance consultancy (medical and technical, including for example, the
transmission of X-ray images), distance learning using moving images.
• Firms are developing sales networks, financial networks, networks for
cooperation at a distance in computer aided design.
• Stock market information is being transmitted and banks use
telecommunication to transfer funds.
Step 2: Technology Description
• Questions to Clarify:
a) What is the technology we are talking about?
b) How does it fit into the ecological system?
c) How is it likely to develop?
• Technology:
a) We should give description of the technology under scrutiny, or of the
technologies relevant to the solution of a problem under consideration.
b) In addition to merely describing the main technology, a description of
alternative, complementary and rival technologies must be included.
• Technological System:
a) Technological system is a complex set of devices and material artifacts,
serving some practical material purpose.
b) Example: Railway system consists of track-bridges, a signaling sub-system,
stations, locomotives, rolling stock and an elaborate set of rules and
procedures to enable the system to function as an effective carrier of goods
and passengers.
Step 2: Technology Description
• Things to remember:
a) Complementary technologies are those that are needed to make a
technology feasible and practical, or more effective and wider in scope.
b) Example: development of integrated circuits (IC) depends on critically upon
technologies such as growing single crystals of silicon of very high purity,
on clean room technology, on photo lithography.
c) Alterative technologies are those that can substitute for the main
technology. In process technologies, it is often possible to achieve the
same result in several different ways.
d) Rival technologies are those which are in direct competition. Satellite TV
broadcasting technology is in rivalry with cable technology.
 A. Telecommunication technologies
• No adverse physical effects.
• Do not degrade the environment or
• Do not cause severe hazards to safety and health.
• The social and economic consequences, though considerable and varied, are hard to
Step 3+4: classify into positive and negative – it all depends on points of view.
Impacts
For these reasons the third and fourth steps have been combined into a single chapter
analyzing the impacts of the new technological developments on various aspects of
society.

B. Economic- trade gains (super profit from newly innovated technology)

Step 3+4: Benefits • Total demand for telecommunications services is bound to increase, as more and
and ill-effects of
Technology more services are being offered and the technological developments are such as to
drive costs (and, hence, prices down).
• A fall in prices is caused by increased competition.
• Though this may be true, it should not be forgotten that the new technology alone –
without increased competition – causes prices to fall.
• An electronic digital exchange costs less, performs better, and needs less
maintenance than a mechanical equivalent.
 C. Employment- Number of people working
• As the production and maintenance of the new technology demands less labor than
the old technology, the net employment purchased by each unit of investment on
Step 3+4: telecommunications equipment will decrease.
Impacts
• If tele-services become additional to traditional services, growth will result.
• If they merely replace traditional services, no growth will be caused.
• If the increased use of telecommunications improves the overall efficiency of the
economy, this should lead to economic growth. Whether this growth will result in
increased employment remains uncertain
Step 3+4: Benefits
and ill-effects of
Technology D. Organizational effectiveness
• Administrative services should become much more efficient,
• It is hard to measure efficiency in an administrative services in principle, and
paradoxical as this may seem, it might take many years
• telecommunications and information technology to have a discernible effect upon
administrative efficiency.
 E. Political
• Accelerate the trend toward globalization of businesses financial markets,
• and trade.
• Stock dealing can take place globally round the clock;
• Goods can be ordered and shipped more efficiently, and accounts can be settled
Step 3+4: rapidly around the world.
Impacts
F. Social – Improvements in social fabric of society
Some risks of varying severity:
• drivers might have their attention diverted by conversing on the mobile telephone
• This risk can be averted, if the law-makers wish to do so, by suitable regulations,
Step 3+4: Benefits supported by technology.
and ill-effects of • the possibilities offered by electronic exchanges for monitoring telephone
Technology conversation and other communications.
• Others do not fear the malevolent state and see these possibilities as useful in the
fight against crime and in offering the consumer more detailed billing.
G. Health related
• Dangers to health from extensive work on visual display units (VDUs).
• Increased use of inter computer communications will increase and amount of time
people spend
Step 3: Benefits of Technology
• Questions to clarify:
a) What benefits are to be expected?
b) What needs does it satisfy?
c) Why is it superior to present or rival technologies?
• Benefits:
a) Economic: trade gains (super profit from newly innovated technology)
b) Commercial: the technology self-reliance (one country tries to be self-reliant
in a particular technology)
c) Environmental: improvement of environment
✓ Example: zero emission electric cars
d) Health related: decreasing mortality rate, reducing health hazards
e) Social: improvement in social fabric of society
f) Political: the military gains (say, USA wants to become a superpower), etc.
Step 3: Benefits of Technology
• Things to remember:
a) Analysis should attempt to describe the non-controversial benefits.
b) Impacts that might be regarded as benefits by some and not by others.
c) Technologies could be deemed useful (unless proved otherwise by showing
that they cause some harmful effects).
d) Technologies might have considerable benefits to society yet are
commercially too risky or otherwise too unattractive to become viable
without some form of public support.
e) The final arbiter of worthiness for support must be the political decision
maker.
Step 4: Ill-effects of Technology
• Questions to Clarify:
a) What unwanted effects or hazards this technology might cause?
b) When undesirable impacts or dangers will be identified?
c) Who or what might be adversely affected?
• Ill effects:
a) Environmental: destructive of the natural environment (the green house
effect and the holes in the ozone layer of the earth’s atmospheres,
Chernobyl nuclear disaster, etc.).
b) Health related: dangerous to human health
c) Social: disruptive of society (socio cultural destabilization satellite
communication have significant demoralizing effects on the section of
population in both the developed and the developing countries)
d) Politico: legal problem (copyright and patent issues, etc.)
Step 4: Ill-effects of Technology
• Things to remember:
a) Stick to qualitative statements of risks and impacts unless is it quantifiable.
b) An important task of TA is to collect evidence for hazards associated with
the use of the technology. Also, figure out if there is controversy or
consensus regarding the hazards, thus identified.
c) The whole of TA report may give better insight of the technology in
question. However, it is to be noted that TA is a well documented and
complete assessment of the state thereby if experts are not aware of an ill-
effect of a certain technology, then TA will fail to include that.
 A. What support and control might be needed?
Policy analysis : center piece of this analysis. The future of the telecommunication
industry is dominated by questions of policy. It is government regulation of the industry in
particular that is crucial to its future.
Step 5: Policy B. What options are available for providing them?
Analysis
• Start an own policy of liberalization.
• The first step would be to introduce universal sockets that allow all types of customer
premises equipment to be connected to the network.
• Tariff adjustments are also possible in an attempt to make prices of services reflect
cost more closely,
Step 5: : Support & • On the other hand, higher services (known at the time as valuable added services)
Control for
may well be thrown open to competition. Although the client will try to defend the
Technology
present network monopoly, a fall back position of negotiating price for allowing other
operators to use the network, to be prepared. The option of not preparing such a fall-
back position is discussed, as well as the option of giving up the monopoly
voluntarily.
• The policy options of service provision are analyzed. With so many new services
becoming possible, the options are either to attempt to provide them all or provide
only those that are closest to the present business and leave others to specialist
providers of so-called value-added services.
Step 5: Support & Control for Technology
• Questions to Clarify:
a) What support and control might be needed?
b) What options are available for providing them?
• Support:
a) Technology may require supportive measures for its development and
diffusion.
b) The technology may not require any intervention and may thrive happily in a
purely commercial domain
c) It may need help in terms of grants, tax allowances, training or information
programs, legislative or regulatory measures, or administrative and
institutional arrangements.
d) TA describes technology costs and benefits, attempts to quantify them, and
assigns both costs and benefits to affected parties.
e) TA also describes perceived difficulties in the path of the technology and
provides an analysis of available options for supportive actions.
Lecture 11 BTM 4803 Technology Management Islamic University of
Technology (IUT)

Topic: Technology Assessment

Course Instructor: Dr. Iftheker A Khan

10 Steps of TA proposed Problem Definition
by Porter et al. (1980)
Technology Social Context
Description & Description &
1. Problem Definition Forecast Forecast
2. Technology Description
3. Technology Forecast
4. Social Description Impact-
5. Societal Forecast
6. Identification of Assessment Factors
Identification
7. Impact Analysis Analysis
8. Impact Evaluation Evaluation
9. Policy Analysis
10. Conclusion and Recommendation Policy
Analysis

Communication of
Results
Step 6: Identification of Assessment Factors
Human Surroundings Factors to be considered for TA:

Factor Example
Technological Technical utility (capability; reliability; efficiency)
Options of technology (flexibility; scale)
Availability of infrastructure (support; services)
Economic Economic feasibility (cost-benefit)
Improvement in productivity (capital; resources)
Market potentials (size; elasticity)
Resource Availability of material and energy sources
Availability of financial resources
Availability of skilled manpower
Environmental Impact on physical environment (air, water; land)
Impact on living conditions (comfort; noise)
Impact on life (safety; health)
Step 6: Identification of Assessment Factors
Human Surroundings Factors to be considered for TA:
Factor Example
Population Growth of population (rate; life expectancy)
Level of education (literacy rate)
Labor characteristics (unemployment; structure)
Socio-Cultural Impact on individual (life quality)
Impact on society (values)
Compatibility with existing culture
Politico-Legal Political acceptability
Mass need satisfaction
Compatibility with institutions and policies
Integration Planning and Monitoring
Implementation
Mechanism for interface management
Tools and Techniques of Technology Assessment

• There is no validated, universally

The frequently used methods for
accepted methodology in the sense
technology assessment may be
of intrinsic methods and techniques
classified into four groups:
for Technology Assessment.
a) General Intuitive Methods
• Various methods and techniques
b) Important Component Methods
evolving from
Engineering/Science, Management, c) Structural Decomposition Method
current and future research can d) Holistic Composition Method
help assess a technology.
General Intuitive Method
This method depends entirely on Expert Opinion
the intuition “Gut Feeling” and
Experience of individual or group of
Polls and Panels
experts in assessing technology.

Delphi Technique

Cross-Impact
Analysis
Expert opinion/ polls and panels

Expert Opinion – To extract information from

• Nominal Group Technique

Strength
Individuals or a number of person.
• Face-to-face Conferences
• Face-to-face Seminar
• Committee Meeting It brings a broad range of information.
• Conference Call
It’s a lengthy process.

Weakness
Polls and Panels –
• Interview Dominance of authoritative figures.
• Online Surveys
• Brainstorming
Group bias due to interest.
 Delphi Technique
Structured communication technique
developed as a systematic,
interactive forecasting method which
relies on a panel of experts.
✓ Anonymity of the participants
✓ Structuring of information flow
✓ Regular feedback
✓ Use in forecasting
✓ Use in policy making
✓ Online Delphi systems
Ground of Delphi Group opinion is more valid than
individual opinion
Delphi Technique
 Delphi Technique
The Delphi technique is an approach used to gain consensus
on a certain issue or set of issues.

Delphi has four characteristics that distinguish it Consensus reached using the
from conventional face-to-face group interaction. Delphi technique does not
mean that the correct answer
1. anonymity,
has been found but rather that
2. iteration with controlled feedback, the experts have come to an
3. statistical response and agreement on the issue or
4. expert input. issues under exploration.

RAND Corporation developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact
of technology on warfare. It was a spinoffs of US Air Force research “Project Delphi”.
 A Delphi Survey in Short
• Step 1: selection of the stakeholders
panel and constitution of the respondent
database.
• Step 2: first round of questionnaire - each
participant gives his opinion anonymously
by answering a first questionnaire.
Responses are only visible to the
moderator and not to the participants, to
avoid the self-moderation bias.
• Step 3: synthesis of the first round - the
moderator gives a feedback to the
respondents after having analyzed the first
round, then the results of the first round
are used to build the second
questionnaire.
• Step 4: iteration until the
desired consensus level - the
iterative process allows for
progressive co-construction
with the panel, such as
structured real-time discussion.
The process uses as many
rounds as necessary to a
satisfactory level of consensus
or saturation.
• Step 5: closing the survey - a
final analysis synthesizes what
emerges from the varied
opinions of a panel on a
specific topic.
Identification of Experts Formulation of Research Objective Literature review

Formulation of Questionnaire Round 01

Pretest Round 01 Questionnaire Identification and Selection of

Participants for Inclusion in
Send out Round 01 Questionnaire Pretest
Panel of Experts
Analysis of Returned Questionnaire
Formulate Round 02 Questionnaire

Pretest Round 02 Questionnaire

Send out Round 02 Questionnaire

Panel of Experts
Analysis of Returned Questionnaire
Formulate Round 03 Questionnaire

Pretest Round 03 Questionnaire

Send out Round 03 Questionnaire

Panel of Experts
Analysis of Returned Questionnaire

Consensus
Graphical Representation of Delphi
Important Component Methods

AD-HOC CHECKLIST MATRICES

Ad-hoc gives a broad Checklist is to Matrices is similar to
qualitative information investigate a list of checklist expect two or
assessment factors. more dimension required
for its presentation.
Holistic Composition Method

INDICES COST-BENEFIT SCENARIO SIMULATION

ANALYSIS GENERATION MODEL
Cost-benefit Analysis

Defined as a systematic process for calculating and

comparing benefits and cost of a decision, policy.

It is used to determine options that provide the best

approach to achieve benefits.

To provide a basis for comparing projects.

Structural Decomposition Method

Relevance Morphological Analytical Networks

tree analysis hierarchy
 Relevance Tree

• To represent the interrelationship between various

group.
Vertical Milling Machine (HAAS
VF1), Marine Structure • Subdivides a broad topic into increasingly smaller
Laboratory, NAME, BUET subtopics .

Example: Introduction of CNC to replace a number of older

machine tools, such as lathes and milling machines
Traditional lathe machine
Relevance tree for the introduction of a new machining center
Impacts of
introduction of
CNC machine

Main sphere Technical/ Personal/ Environment/

Economic Labor
Commercial Social health
of impact

Greater capital Fewer Redeployment Health and

Absorb output
cost operations or redundancy safety hazards

Increased Opposition by Environmental

Plant layout Shift work
output workforce hazards

Plant
Labor savings Training needs Re-grading
organization

Increased Maintenance
Suppliers
maintenance staff

Reliability of Product
single machine Quality
Morphological analysis

THE METHOD BASICALLY TO PROVIDE A FULL TO PROCEED WITH THE

DEPENDS ON ASKING A RANGE OF ALL ANALYSIS BY
SERIES OF QUESTION POSSIBLE ANSWER TO SELECTING THE
ABOUT A EACH QUESTION. COMPATIBLE PROBLEM.
TECHNOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT.
Analytical
Hierarchy

• Structured technique for

organizing and analyzing
complex decision.
• Particular application for
group decision making.
 Impact Web
/Network
• An extension of matrices
incorporating long term
technological impacts.
• Social and other subsystem
are generally
interconnected.
Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM)
• Technology Choice is a complex decision problem involving many criteria
such as technical criteria, economic criteria, social criteria, environmental
criteria, resource criteria, etc.
• The problem of Technology Assessment is essentially a multi-criteria
decision making (MCDM) problem.
• MCMD Models provide a framework for rational choice of technology
a) by identifying the relevant criteria,
b) measuring the performance of each alternative on each criterion,
c) determining the importance weight of each criteria and
d) finally evaluating a weighted score for each alternative that reflects
strength of preference of an alternative.
 Central Idea Behind MCDM Approach
remains the same; these are:

Split a complex decision problem (e.g.,

choice of an AT) into small parts;
MCDM
Models
Deal with each part separately;

Then use a formal mechanism for

integrating the results.
25
MCDM Models
MCDM models (not exclusive):
1. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
2. Fuzzy Hierarchical Decision Making (FHDM)
3. Simple Multi Attribute Rating Technique (SMART)
4. Multi Attribute Utility (MAU) model.

• AHP and FHDM have been shown to be useful for technology assessment
and selection. SMART & MAU could also be used for the purpose.

• The Models differ in the way the weightings of the attributes/criteria and
the ratings of the alternatives are determined.

26
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Provides a systematic, explicit, rigorous and robust mechanism for eliciting
and quantifying subjective judgments.
• Widely applicable because of its inherent capability to handle both
quantitative and qualitative attributes and data uncertainty.
• Formal structuring of the problem
• Simplicity of pairwise comparisons
• Redundancy allows consistency to be checked
• Versatility

• For audio-visual understanding check out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18GWVtVAAzs&t=106s
Lecture 13 BTM 4803 Technology Management Islamic University of
Technology (IUT)

Topic: Technology Assessment

Course Instructor: Dr. Iftheker A Khan

Analytical
Hierarchy

• Structured technique for

organizing and analyzing
complex decision.
• Particular application for
group decision making.
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Provides a systematic, explicit, rigorous and robust mechanism for eliciting
and quantifying subjective judgments.
• Widely applicable because of its inherent capability to handle both
quantitative and qualitative attributes and data uncertainty.
• Formal structuring of the problem
• Simplicity of pairwise comparisons
• Redundancy allows consistency to be checked
• Versatility

• For audio-visual understanding check out:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18GWVtVAAzs&t=106s
Pair-wise Comparison

The scaling is not necessary 1 to

9 but for qualitative data such as
preference, ranking and
subjective opinions, it is
suggested to use scale 1 to 9.
Pair-wise Comparison Scale for AHP Preferences

Numerical Rating Verbal Judgments of Preferences

9 Extremely preferred/important
8 Very strongly to Extremely
7 Very strongly preferred/important
6 Strongly to very strongly
5 Strongly preferred/important
4 Moderately to strongly
3 Moderately preferred/important
2 Equally to moderately
1 Equally preferred/important
5
Pair-wise Comparison Scale for AHP Preferences

Intensity of Value Interpretation

1 Requirements i and j are of equal value
3 Requirements i has a slightly higher value than j
5 Requirements i has a stronger higher value than j
7 Requirements i has a very stronger higher value than j
9 Requirements i has an absolutely higher value than j
2, 4, 6, 8 These are intermediate scales between tow adjacent judgements
Reciprocals If requirement i has a lower value than j
Pair-wise Comparison

No. of things 3
No. of comparisons 3

No. of things 1 2 3 4 5 … N
No. of comparisons 0 1 3 6 10 … N(N-1)/2
Preferences Qualitative to Quantitative
i. I moderately prefer Banana over Apple
ii. I strongly prefer Apple over Cherry
iii. I very strongly prefer Banana over Cherry

Verbal Judgments of Preferences Numerical

Rating
Extremely preferred/important 9
Very strongly preferred/important 7
Strongly preferred/important 5
Moderately preferred/important 3
Equally preferred/important 1
 Making Comparison Matrix
Making Comparison Matrix • 3X3 matrix from the 3 comparisons.
(How to make reciprocal•matrix?)
The diagonal elements of the matrix are
(How to make reciprocal matrix?) always 1 and we only need to fill up the
upper triangular matrix.
• Rules:
a) If the judgment value is on the left side
of 1, we put the actual judgment value.
b) If the judgment value is on the right
side of 1, we put the reciprocal value.

3X3 matrix from the 3 comparisons

Apple Banana Cherry

Apple 1 1/3 5
Banana 1 7
Cherry 1
Reciprocal Matrix Comparison Matrix
Apple Banana Cherry
Apple Banana Cherry
Apple 1 1/3 5
Apple 1 1/3 5
A= Banana 3 1 7
A= Banana 1 7
Cherry 1/5 1/7 1
Cherry 1
1
Apple Banana Cherry Priority Vectors (How to compute Eigen Value
and Eigen vector?)
Apple 1 1/3 5 1. Sum each column of the reciprocal matrix
2. Normalized relative weight.
A= Banana 3 1 7
3. The normalized principal Eigen vector can
Cherry 1/5 1/7 1 be obtained by averaging across the rows.
The normalized principal Eigen vector is
Sum 21/5 31/21 13 also called priority vector

2 Apple Banana Cherry 3

Apple 5/21 7/31 5/13 5/21+7/31+5/13 0.2828 Apple

A= Banana 15/21 21/31 7/13 A= 1/3 15/21+21/31+7/13 = 0.6434 Banana

Cherry 1/21 3/31 1/13 1/21+3/31+1/13 0.0738 Cherry

Sum 21/5 31/21 13

Now you know which one you prefer most!!!
STEP 1: Define the decision problem and determine its object

 CHOOSING A NEW PACKAGING MACHINE

 A manager in a food processing company has to choose a new
packaging machine to replace the existing one which is wearing out.
 The manager has a limited budget for the purchase and has narrowed
down the possible options to three:
(i) Aztec
(ii) Barton
(iii) Congress
 However, the decision is still proving to be difficult because of the variety
of attributes associated with the machines, such as the purchase price,
reputation for reliability and the quality of after- sales support provided by
the different manufacturers.

12
STEP 2: Set up decision hierarchy

Once the decision maker and the alternative courses of action

have been identified, the next step is to define the decision criteria
in the form of hierarchy of objectives.

Top level: Objective to be achieved

Intermediate levels: Criteria and sub-criteria

Lowest level: list of alternatives.

13
 Choose a
Machine

Cost Quality

After Sales Speed of

Purchase Upgrade Reliability Customization
Support Delivery

Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec

Barton Barton Barton Barton Barton Barton

Congress Congress Congress Congress Congress Congress

Figure: A hierarchy for the packaging machine problem

STEP 3: Make pair wise comparisons of attributes and alternatives

• This is used to determine the relative importance of

attributes/criteria & sub-criteria and also to compare how
well the options perform on the different attributes.

• Judgments are obtained from experts in the relevant area or

decision maker if he/she is knowledgeable.

• Judgments are verbal.

• For n attributes to be compared, matrix size is (n x n) and

the number of judgments needed is n x (n-1)/2.

15
 Cost Quality
Cost - Strongly

Quality -

Reliability After-sales Speed of Customization

service delivery

Reliability - Moderate to Strongly Moderate to

strong strong

After-sales - Moderate Equal to

service moderate

Speed of - Moderate
delivery

Customization -

16
 Cost Quality
Cost 1 5

Quality 1

Reliability After- Speed of Customization

sales delivery
service
Reliability 1 4 5 4

After-sales 1 3 1/2
service

Speed of 1 1/3
delivery

Customizati 1
on
1
5

Cost Quality
Cost - Strongly

Quality -

Cost Quality
Cost 1 5
Quality 1

Cost Quality
Cost 1 5
Quality 1/5 1
 Cost Quality

Cost 1 5
Quality 1/5 1

Column 1.2 6
Sum

Cost Quality
Cost 0.883 0.833
Quality 0.167 0.167

Raw Sum Normalized

weight (Priority
vector)
Cost 1.666 0.833
Quality 0.334 0.167

Sum 2.000 1.0

 STEP 4: Transform the comparisons into weights

Reliability After- Speed of Customization

sales delivery
service
Reliability 1 4 5 4

After-sales 1/4 1 3 1/2

service

Speed of 1/5 1/3 1 1/3

delivery

Customization 1/4 2 3 1

Column sum 1.7 7.3333 12 5.833

20
Divide each cell by the column sum and form a matrix as shown below

Reliability After-sales Speed of Customization

service delivery

Reliability 0.58824 0.54546 0.41667 0.68572

After-sales 0.14706 0.13636 0.25 0.085715

service

Speed of delivery 0.11765 0.04545 0.08333 0.05714

Customization 0.14706 0.27273 0.25 0.17143

21
Calculate row sum for each factor and normalize these values by
dividing each factor value by column sum
Row sum Normalized weight
(Priority vector)
Reliability 2.23609 0.559

After-sales service 0.61914 0.155

Speed of delivery 0.30357 0.076

Customization 0.84122 0.21

Sum 4.00002 1.0

22
Check the consistency of the decision maker’s comparisons

 Along with the weights the AHP also yields an inconsistency index.
 The index is designed to alert the decision maker to any
inconsistencies in the comparisons which have been made, with a
value of zero indicating perfect consistency.

 CI = (λmax – n)/ (n -1)

CR = CI / RC
CI : Consistency Index, RC: Random Consistency
CR: Consistency Ratio

λmax = 4.00002, CI = 6.67 E -6, RC = 0.9, CR = 7.407 E -6 < 0.1

23
Average Random Consistency
Size of matrix (n) 1 2 3 4 5

RC 0 0 0.58 0.9 1.12

6 7 8 9 10

1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49

1
5

Purchase Upgrade
Purchase -

Upgrade -

Aztec Barton Congress

Aztec -
Barton -
Congress
STEP 5: Use the weights to obtain scores for the different options and make a provisional decision
Choose a
Machine
1.000

Cost Quality
0.833 0.167

After Sales Speed of

Purchase Upgrade Reliability Customization
Support Delivery
0.875 0.125 0.569 0.209
0.148 0.074

Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec Aztec

0.222 0.558 0.157 0.148 0.625 0.127

Barton Barton Barton Barton Barton Barton

0.667 0.320 0.094 0.143 0.238 0.186

Congress Congress Congress Congress Congress Congress

0.111 0.122 0.740 0.571 0.136 0.687

Score of Aztec = 0.255

Score for Barton = 0.541
Score for Congress = 0.204
STEP 6: Perform sensitivity analysis

• In any decision model it is important to examine how sensitive the preferred course of
action is to changes in the judgments made by the decision maker.
• Many of these judgments will be “rough and ready” and the decision maker may be
unsure about exactly what judgments to input.
• EXPERT CHOICE has a number of facilities for carrying out sensitivity analysis.
• In dynamic sensitivity analysis a bar chart shows the weights attached to attributes at a
particular level in the hierarchy. By changing the lengths of these bars, the effect on the
scores of the alternative courses of action can be examined.
• Other graphs allow decision makers to examine the amount of change that can be made
to an attribute’s weight before the preferred course of action changes.

27
AHP Online Calculator (Not Exclusive)

1. https://bpmsg.com/ahp-online-calculator/
2. https://www.xlstat.com/en/solutions/features/analytic-
hierarchy-process
3. http://www.healthstrategy.com/ahp/ahp.htm
4. http://www.easyahp.com/
5. http://www.superdecisions.com/method/