Technology Intelligence &

Forecasting
By
Dr. Vijay Kr Khurana
 What is Technology Intelligence ?
• Technology Intelligence (TI) is an activity that enables
companies to identify the technological opportunities and
threats that could affect the future growth and survival of
their business.
• The Centre for Technology Management defines 'Technology
Intelligence' as "the capture and delivery of technological
information as part of the process whereby an organisation
develops an awareness of technological threats and
opportunities.”
• 'Technology Intelligence' aims to capture and disseminate the
technological information needed for strategic planning and
decision making.
• Companies install an intelligence system (technology, market,
business or competitive intelligence) to collect and analyze
information on market, product, and technology changes and on
other environmental transformations in order to increase their
decision-making quality and competitiveness. 
What is Technology Intelligence ?
 What is Technology Intelligence ?
Why Technology Intelligence? 
• As technology life cycles shorten and business become
more globalized; having effective T I capabilities is
becoming increasingly important.
• T I provides an understanding of current & potential
changes taking place in the environment.
• T I provides important information for strategic
decision-makers
• T I facilitates and fosters strategic thinking in
organizations.
• If conducted properly, T I leads to enhanced capacity
& commitment to understanding, anticipating and
responding to external changes
 Levels of Technology Intelligence ?
Three levels of T I
• Macro level – technological trends & developments which can
influence entire economy / major sectors
• Industry or business level - technological trends &
developments which can influence specific industries /
businesses
• Program or project level – technological trends &
developments which can influence specific technology
related program or project
The above three levels differ in terms of
• Breadth of technology
• Clarity of trends
• Degree of precision of trends
Different levels of technology intelligence can be applied /
useful in different context
Levels of Technology Intelligence ?
 What is Technology Mapping ?
• Technology Intelligence could be both internal as
well as external. Internal technology intelligence is
called technology audit.
• External technology intelligence is called
technology mapping.
• Mapping technology environment refers to the
process of gathering external data and analyzing it
to derive the intelligence for major strategic
decisions.
What is Technology Mapping ?
 What is Technology Mapping ?
Process of mapping the technology environment
consists of four interlinked steps:
• 1. Scanning the environment to detect ongoing &
emerging changes
• 2. Monitoring specific environment trends &
patterns
• 3. Forecasting the future direction of technological
changes
• 4. Assessing the current & future environmental
changes for understanding their strategic &
organizational implications
What is Technology Mapping ?
What is Technology Forecasting ?
 Elements of Technology Forecasting
1. Time of the forecast – a single point of time, or a
time span.
2. Approach in Technology Forecasting
3. Statement of functional capability / performance
characteristics of technology – a quantitative
measure of its ability to carry out the functions.
4. Statement of Probability
– Probability of achieving a given level of
functional capability by a certain time; or
– Probability distribution over the levels that
might be achieved by a specific time.
Why Forecast Technology?
Performance Characteristics Technology Progression

Physical limits of technology < Technology

Regime 2
Technology
Regime 1 >

Time / funds / efforts

 Benefits of Technology Forecasting ?
Since 1990s rate of technological change has become
faster. Individual, organization or nation affected by
technological change as it invalidates previous
resource allocation based on historical facts /
data.Therefore technology forecast is no more
avoidable.
Following factors necessitate forecast of technology:
• To maximize gain from events external to an
organization
• To minimize loss associated with uncontrollable
events external to an organization.
 Benefits of Technology Forecasting
• Contd …..
• To maximize gain from events that are result of action
taken by an organization.
• To offset the actions of hostile or competitive
organizations
• To forecast demand for production and /or inventory
control.
• To forecast demand for facilities and capital planning.
• To forecast demand to ensure adequate staffing
• To develop administrative plans & policies internal to an
organization.
• To develop policies that apply to people who are not part
of the organization.
 Benefits of Technology Forecasting
Contd …..
According to Ralph Lenz, technology forecast can play following
specific roles in improving the quality of technology decisions:
• The forecast identifies limits beyond which it is not possible to
go.
• It establishes feasible rates of progress, so that the plan can
be made to take full advantage of such rates of progress,
• It describes the alternatives that are open for choice.
• It indicates the possibilities that might be achieved if desired.
• It provides a reference standard for the plan. Thus the plan
can be compared with the forecast at any point in time to
determine whether it can still be fulfilled or whether because
of changes in the forecast, it has to be changed.
• It furnishes warning signals which can alert the decision maker
that it will not be possible to continue present activities.
 Techniques of Technology Forecasting
Ideally technology forecasting should be rational and
analytical based on available pertinent data. In
following three situations / circumstances expert
opinion may be sought for making technology forecast:
• No historical data exists – as it could be new
technology / new area of research & development
• Impact of external factors may be more important
than the factors which governed previous development
of technology- i.e past data has become irrelevant and
cannot be relied for making technology forecast
• Ethical or moral considerations may dominate economic
& technical considerations thus seeking lesser reliance
on available data.
 Techniques of Technology Forecasting
• In above three situations, as the historical data is
either not available or it has become irrelevant,
group of experts are used to make technology
forecast; as there is an old saying -- “Two heads are
better than one.” By involving a number of experts,
there is pooling of divergent ideas and various
dimensions may be analyzed in better manner thus
leading to a better technology forecast.
• A. Techniques involving a group of experts are :
– 1. Committees
– 2. Delphi
• B. Other Techniques based on historical data are :
– 3. Exploratory Forecast
– 4. Normative Forecast
 1. Committees
Key advantages of committees are as under:
• Sum total of knowledge is greater than individual
knowledge
• Number of factors considered would be more than
those considered by an individual
• There is pooling of divergent ideas and various
dimensions may be analyzed in a better manner
• Helps in avoiding individual biases
• Better knowledge & awareness of one member may
compensate for lack of knowledge of another
member.
 1. Committees
Few limitations associated with committees are :
• Ther is no guarantee that misinformation will be
cancelled out by using a group of experts. There is
no guranatee that wrong ideas / judgements will be
cancelled out by good ideas / judgements.
• There is usually social pressure to agree with
majority, which may be implicit or explicit.
• Reaching agreement becomes a goal in itself. Good
forecasts may thus be watered down in a bid to
reach a consenus.
 1. Committees
Contd …
• A strong vocal minority may overwhelm majority ,
thus making process vulnerabe to hijack by
dominant individuals
• Vested interests may be presented very strongly in
the beginning thus setting defined direction in the
beginning
• Entire group may share a common bias if a common
culture is shared by all of them thus nullifying
advantage of the group.
• There may be emotional involvement of certain
members, leading to conflicts
• Lot of time and efforts may be consumed in
reaching to a consensus
 2. Delphi
Three characterstics that distinguish Delphi from
conventional face to face group interactions ( like
committee) are as under:.
1. Anonymity - anonymity is maintained through
questionnaire as under :
• Avoids possibility of identifying a specific opinion
with a particular person.
• Originator can thus change his mind without
publicity admitting that he has done so.
• Each idea can be considered on its merits,
regardless of the fact whether group members
may have high or low opinion about originator.
 2. Delphi
Contd …
2. Interaction with controlled feed back
• Group interaction is through questionnaires and answers
to questionnaires
• Coordinator / moderator picks relevant informations &
each group member is informed of status of group’s
collective opinion & arguments for & against each point of
view.
• Controlled feedback prevents group taking rigid stand &
helps to concentrate on its original objectives.
3. Statistical Group response
• Delphi presents the statistical group reponse that
presents the opinions of entire group giving both the
“Centre” of the group and the degree of spread
about that centre
 2. Delphi
Limitations / Disadvantages of Delphi
• The success of Delphi mainly lies in coordinator.
• The experts must carry relevant experience
• Further like committee, Delphi is based on
opinions and not on data.
 3. Exploratory Forecast
• An Exploratory Forecast starts with past &
present conditions and projects these to estimate
future conditions.
• The exploratory forecast is based on technology
push and is opportunity oriented i.e. searching
for future opportunities.
• Exploratory forecast implicitly assumes that
required performance can be achieved by
reasonable extension of past performance.
• Commonly used techniques of exploratory
forecast are : Trend extrapolation.
 3. Exploratory Forecast
Trend Extrapolation
• Assumption: Time series data from the past contains
all the information needed to forecast the future.
• The forecaster extends a pattern found by analyzing
past time series data.
• For example: A technological forecasting to forecast
future aircraft speed …. by studying historical time
series of aircraft speed records, by finding a pattern
(trend), and extending it to the future to obtain a
forecast.
 4. Normative Forecast
• A Normative Forecast starts with future needs
and identifies the technological performance
necessary to meet these required needs.
• The normative forecast is based on market pull
and is mission / need –oriented i.e. finding ways
for meeting future needs.
• Normative forecast implicitly forecasts the
capabilities that will be available on the
assumption that needs will be met . Thus in case
of normative forecast, meeting needs on defined
future time is highly important
Exploratory &Normative Forecast
 4. Normative Forecast
• Few techniques of Normative Technological
Forecasting are as under:
– Relevances Trees
– Decision Matrices : Horizontal or
vertical
– Morphological Analysis
– Network Techniques
– Mission Flow Diagrams etc
 4. Normative Forecast
• Morphological Analysis - It is a normative technique
developed by Fritz Zwicky which provides a framework for
exploring all possible solutions to a particular problem. The
morphological analysis involves the systematic study of the
current and future scenarios of a particular problem. Based on
this study, possible gaps are identified and the morphological
analysis further provides a framework to explore other
alternatives to fill these gaps.
• Relevance Trees - It is an organized ‘normative’ approach
starting with a particular objective and used for forecasting as
well as planning. The basic structure looks like an organisational
chart and presents information in a hierarchical structure. The
hierarchy begins with the objectives which are further broken
down into activities and further into tasks. As one descends
down, the details increase at every level. The entries when taken
together at each level describe the preceding level completely.
Also, all activities and tasks depicted should be mutually
exclusive
 4. Normative Forecast
• A mission / control flow diagram (CFD) is a diagram
to describe the control flow of a business process,
process or program
• Mission Flow Diagrams - have been originally
conceived by Harold Linstone as a means of analyzing
military missions. This involves mapping all the
alternative routes or sequences by which a given task
can be accomplished. The analyst needs to identify
significant steps on each route and also determine
the challenges/costs associated with each route. The
performance requirements can then be derived for
each associated technology and the same can be used
as normative forecasts.
• .
 4. Normative Forecast
Network Technique
• Firstly, the elements of a technological forecasting
network are formulated for the purpose of
converting the qualitative description of a
technological system to a stochastic (non-
deterministic) network form.
• Then, an analytical procedure for the synthesis of
the network is given.
• Finally, examples are included for the purpose of
illustration.
Technology Intelligence &
Forecasting
By
Dr. Vijay Kr Khurana