Product Life Cycle Management (15ME835)

Module-4

Technology Forecasting

By
PRATIBHA V PATIL
Dept of Mechanical Engineering
VNEC Shorapur
 Introduction to Technology Forecasting
Is a planning tool or Technique applied to predict the following

The potential direction at which technology change is taking place

The rate of technology advance

The effect of technological change on process, products, market, society etc

When possible, the prediction will be quantified, made through a specific logic, and
will estimate the timing and degree change in technological parameters, attributes
and capabilities.

• Ex: The speed of a military aircraft, Power in watts in of a particular future engine.
Reason/Need for Technology Forecasting
 Technological Change
It is defined as an increase in the efficiency of a physical process, product materials, machinery
or equipment, which results in an increase in output, without an increase in the input,

OR

The process of Invention or improvement of technology to yield bigger reward for the same
amount of work input

Ex: Advanced cutting tools that permits to produce more parts in an hour of work

Automation that allows companies to produce more products/services with respect

to unit input
 Impact of Technological change on society
Different product with different features & characteristics like superior in quality , free
from pollution, safer more comfortable etc. enters the market in a short span of life.
New technologies give way for opportunities related to job and trade. on other hand,
technology related to automation replace human labours increasing unemployment in
society.
Technological developments make life easy and improve the standard of living in the
society. The improvements in the living conditions are not uniformly distributed among
the diverse population in the society, raising inequality due to wealth/income distribution.
Technology has changed the education system and learning methods to a greater extent,
thereby uplifting the learning interests and abilities of people, and in turn eradicating
illiteracy in the society.
Many technological changes tend to build relationship and bring people together.
 Methods (Techniques) of Technology Forecasting
The whole techniques of technology forecasting is shown in figure
Exploratory Methods
It starts with present state of technology by analysing the technological capabilities, features etc
and quantitatively project future possibilities. It is based upon the past and present knowledge
and its oriented towards the future in other words it provides a means for exploring the shape of
tomorrow given the state, trends, and promises of the today. It can be categorised into
• Intuitive Technology Monitoring
• Trend Extrapolation Growth Curves
Normative Methods
It begins with setting up future needs, goals or objectives and work backwards to the present to
find out the best approach to realize the predetermined objective. In other words it first setup the
future needs and objectives and then specifies the means to achieve them. It can be grouped into
• Relevance Tree
• Morphological analysis
• Flow diagrams
 Intuitive methods
It is based on the ability of one or more experts in there respective areas of
specialization to forecast the future possibilities regardless of information security.

It built a rational procedure intuitive-logical thinking combined with quantitative

assessment methods and processing the obtained results.

The commonly used intuitive methods are

• Brainstorming

• Delphi technique

• Scenario writing
 Brainstorming
It involves a group of people under a leader who encourages forecasting about a
specific technology by collecting/contributing all the ideas spontaneously.

The major objective is to stimulate the generation of ideas on a given

technology. The ideas are analysed and evaluated in depth

Least favoured ideas are rejected, while preferred ones are analysed and forecast.

This could also serve as an input for the other forecasting techniques.
 Delphi technique
It is a most popular tool for forecasting. It consists of an attempt to arrive at a consensus in
an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly.
Leaders first supplies questions to the experts who are located at different places for their
response
Each expert is given the opportunity to react to the information or consideration advanced
by others.
OR
The core groups of experts to prepare questions regarding the desirability of technology
development, its feasibility and impact, time frame, resources required etc.
That questions send to panel of experts through mail. Experts opinion and responses are
collected, summarized.
It provides opportunities for experts for the desired changes and revisions between
subsequent rounds of questionnaire.
 Scenario Writing
Scenario writing is usually preferred when the company’s long term future is far
too difficult to predict,

Forecaster thus generates several future scenarios corresponding to different sets

of assumptions allowing the decision makers to decide which scenario is most
likely to prevail.
 Technology Monitoring
In order to reduce uncertainties resulting from rapid technological changes, there has to be a
system for monitoring the signals of technological change.
The major steps are

Scanning: It involves collecting as much information that is available on particular field of

technology The information could be research plans & developments, Benefits of technology,
human skills, manufacturing skills etc.

Filtering: Involves screening or filtering unnecessary information obtained in the previous step,
thereby retaining relevant information required for forecasting

Development & Utilization of Ideas: it involves subjecting the relevant information to detailed
scrutiny and evaluating them by a group of forecasters. As their usefulness to trigger newer
activities in the organization.
 Trend Extrapolative Method
 Extrapolative method makes use of the historical data on selected technological
parameters for projecting future trends.
 The method uses extrapolation of graph of a known available and in-use
technological events for which data is available.

Figure shows Trend Extrapolation Forecasting

There are two types of extrapolation based on the rate of past behaviour

Linear Extrapolation

Exponential Method
Substitution Technique
 Growth Curves
Certain technological parameters attain an ultimate saturation level i.e., the growth is
restricted due to practical limitations.
It can be used for forecasting how and when a given technical approach will reach its
upper limit. The growth phenomenon can be described by S-shaped (Sigmoidal) curve
shown in figure.
The process involves fitting a growth curve to a set of data on technological
performance, then extrapolating the growth curve beyond the range of data to obtain
an estimate of future performance. It involves three assumptions
• The upper limit to the growth curve is known
• The chosen growth curve to be fitted to the historical data is the correct one
• The historical data gives the coefficients of the chosen growth curve formula correctly.
The two commonly used models are
Pearl curve
Gompertz curve
 Normative Methods
It begins with setting up future needs, goals or objectives and work backwards to
the present to find out the best approach to realize the predetermined objective.
In other words it first setup the future needs and objectives and then specifies the
means to achieve them. It can be grouped into
• Relevance Tree

• Morphological analysis

• Flow diagrams
 Relevance Tree Technique
• Is an analytical method that subdivides a particular objective into increasingly
smaller activities and further into tasks, thereby showing all possible paths to
achieve the intended objective and provide a forecast accordingly. The objective is
to develop by means of Air Pollution control. An example of a relevance tree is
shown in figure .
• The hierarchy begins with the objective, which is further broken down into
activities and further into tasks as shown in the figure.
 Morphological Analysis
Morphological analysis is moreover an analytical technique that provides
framework for exploring all possible solutions to particular problems.
Is a forecasting technique for exploring all the possible solutions to multi
dimensional, non quantified complex problems. It involves mapping a wide
perspective of existing solutions and further possibilities. The approach is based
on five basic steps
Formulation and definition of given problems
Identification and characterization of all parameters towards a solution
Construction of a morphological box whose combinations will contains all
possible solutions
Evaluation of outcome, based on feasibility and achievement of desired goals
In- depth analysis of the best options considering available resources
Table shows a morphological box to examine the possible development of clocks.
The vertical axis lettered A, B,C etc defines the stages of parameters. The
horizontal axis numbered 1, 2, 3 etc defines alternative method to achieve the
parameters.
The analysis is usually initiated by starting with a well known or existing solution
be like A1-B1-C1-D1-E1-F1, and changing one element at a time. Alternate
methods, A2-B2-C1-D1-E1-F1 are analysed to find potential improvement in
current technology.
 Mission Flow Diagrams

Is a specific type of activity diagram that communicates a sequence of actions or

movements for accomplishing a specific objective. It was originally conceived for
analysing military missions hence the name mission flow diagram
The techniques involves mapping all the alternative routes or sequences by which
a given task can be accomplished. The analyst need to identify the significant
steps on each route and also determine the challenges associated with each route.
Figure shows the simple flow diagram of Forecasting using Mission Flow
Diagrams
 Combining Forecast of Technology
The Forecasting accuracy can be improved by combining Forecasts derived from
different methods that differs substantially and draw information from different
source. The use of more than one forecasting methods gives forecaster more
insight into the processes at work which are responsible for the growth of
technology being forecast.
Combining forecasts is especially useful when there is uncertainty about the
situation, which method is most accurate and in order to avoid large errors
Two common procedures for combining forecasts include simple averaging,
means assigning weights inversely proportional to the sum of squared forecast
errors and Regression based weights.
• Ex: combining forecast obtained from growth curves and trend curve for some
technology.
Growth curve alone the forecaster canot conclude anything about the time at

which a given technical approach is likely to be supplanted by a successes

approach

Trend curve alone the forecaster canot conclude anything about the ability of a

specific technical approach to meet the projected trend.

The use of growth curves and trend curve in combination allows the forecaster to

draw some conclusions about the future growth of technology.

 Integrating Technological Product Innovation & Product Development within Enterprises

Product innovation refers to the creation or developing a new idea for the
development of a new product/service. Product innovation destroys existing products
by creating new ones that are not available in the present market. Company tend to add
innovation to their new product in order to attract more customers, increase their
profits.
The following three aspects give significant influence on the value of a new product.
1) Human aspects:
The successful innovation maximizes the user appreciation of the products offered.
Understanding and treating the human interests is key to define your drivers
User Function Analysis: The reaction of the user on the character and usability of the
product
Ergonomics: The product must correspond to the physical capabilities of the user.
2) Technological Aspects

It typically related to materials, design & construction optimization, physics and
development of mechanical/electronics system, manufacturing and assembly
technology. These aspects are determined by criteria such as mechanical and thermal
load, interface capabilities, limitations and compatibility by other systems,
environmental impact and aging effects.
3) Economic aspects

It includes knowledge of competition and its offers, total cost of development and
other production preliminary costs, approach of the distribution, the development
time(time-to-market) and price that the prospective user is willing to pay for the
 Methods & Tools In Product Innovation Process
1) Deep drive
Is a brain storming technique, where in a group of people meet to generate new ideas and solutions
around a specific domain of interest. All the ideas are recorded and evaluated once the deep drive
session is completed. Ideas may be used independently or combined for a better cause.
It provides a free and open environment that encourages everyone to participate.
2) Prototyping
A prototyping is a early sample, model or release of a product to built to test a concept or process.
An overlooked aspect of product innovation. (demo-like of a future product).
OR
Prototyping is a critical aspects it helps to understand, define and refine features and specifications
of a future product, or an idea or a concept
3) Design Thinking
Design thinking on logic, imagination, intuition and systemic reasoning to explore
the possibilities of what could be and to create desired outcomes that benefit the
customer.
It informs human-cantered innovation which begins with developing an
understanding of customers needs, there by helping the innovator to gain greater
clarity to find feasible and desirable ideas.
4) TRIZ( Theory of Inventive Problem Solving)

Is a technique for innovation that provides excellent principles and concrete tools
for creative thinking for technology development. It is similar to brainstorming.
5) Open Innovation

Is a innovation technique that involves flow of ideas or knowledge within and
outside the organization during the innovation process. Ideas are evaluated, only beat
and most promising ones are selected for their development and commercialization.

6) Co-Creation

Is an innovative technique that makes use of people external to the company in the
ideation phase of the new product or service development. The people involved in
the process may include customers, suppliers, distributors or the general population,
who are made aware that they are contributing towards the development of ideas and
concept.