VOLUMEN DE E-COMMERCE Y PROPORCION BANCARIZADA X1 VELOCIDAD DE INTERNET X2

65.0 29.7 12.8

32.0 12.8 2.7
178.0 40.1 25.0
50.0 33.8 18.9
73.0 42.0 11.7
40.0 25.1 2.4
44.0 29.9 15.5
36.0 16.8 2.8
32.0 15.4 2.6
114.0 29.0 18.4
33.0 19.2 6.4
200.0 30.4 18.0
55.0 27.4 14.8
52.0 40.0 25.4
31.0 14.8 11.9
29.0 11.1 10.2
44.0 41.9 16.5
61.0 31.2 16.3
111.0 33.2 17.9
100.0 57.7 50.5
295.0 78.9 93.2
178.0 40.1 25.0
50.0 33.8 18.9
73.0 42.0 11.7
40.0 25.1 2.4
52.0 40.0 25.4
31.0 14.8 11.9
29.0 11.1 10.2
44.0 41.9 16.5
40.0 25.1 2.4
178.0 40.1 25.0
50.0 33.8 18.9
111.0 33.2 17.9
100.0 57.7 50.5
295.0 78.9 93.2
65.0 29.7 12.8
32.0 12.8 2.7
178.0 40.1 25.0
80.0 33.2 19.7
52.0 35.0 17.0
USUARIOS DE INTERNET X3 PRECIO INTERNET (EN US$) X4
3.8 24.0
1.3 33.0
6.5 15.5
5.5 24.4
2.9 31.7
2.7 30.0
2.4 24.9
2.0 32.1
2.1 25.0
7.7 20.1
2.1 37.9
8.4 25.0
3.1 22.3
4.2 25.0
2.5 24.1
2.1 27.8
5.0 30.0
3.8 30.0
4.7 21.0
6.6 26.0
9.6 17.5
6.5 22.0
5.5 24.4
2.9 31.7
2.7 35.0
4.2 25.0
2.5 24.1
2.1 26.7
5.0 28.0
2.7 28.2
6.5 15.5
5.5 24.4
4.7 25.9
6.6 39.0
9.6 14.0
3.8 24.0
1.3 29.0
6.5 23.9
4.7 25.7
5.4 30.1
 TOTAL DE CUATRO PROMEDIO MOVIL DE PROMEDIO MOVIL DE
Año Trim t Yt CUATRIMESTRES CUATRO CENTRADO

III 1 95248
2014 IV 2 98217
I 3 96586 456140 114035
II 4 110547 487665 121916.25 117975.625
III 5 119360 519618 129904.5 125910.375
2015 IV 6 129647 555245 138811.25 134357.875
I 7 128111 590250 147562.5 143186.875
II 8 142500 625432 156358 151960.25
III 9 154987 661895 165473.75 160915.875
2016 IV 10 164652 695510 173877.5 169675.625
I 11 163293 736673 184168.25 179022.875
II 12 178963 776365 194091.25 189129.75
III 13 188602 817549 204387.25 199239.25
2017 IV 14 205815 871736 217934 211160.625
I 15 202985 919073 229768.25 223851.125
II 16 220147
III 17 242789
2018 IV 18 253152
2019 I 19 250148

Yt t I II III
95248 1 2015 0.9370325438 0.947975891582
98217 2 2016 0.894711893112 0.93774523272 0.963155437585
96586 3 2017 0.912134831931 0.94624457548 0.946610670337
110547 4 2018 0.906785704115
119360 5 MEDIA 0.904544143053 0.940340784 0.952580666501
129647 6
128111 7
142500 8 LOS INDICES ESTACIONALES TIPICOS DE LA SERIE SON
154987 9
164652 10 I 0.904544143053
163293 11 II 0.940340784
178963 12 III 0.952580666501
188602 13 IV 0.97000506153
205815 14 TOTAL 3.767470655084
202985 15
220147 16 FACTOR DE 1.061720280317
242789 17 CORRECCION
253152 18
250148 19 MULTIPLICAMOS CADA INDICE POR EL FACTOR DE CORRELACIÓN
I 0.904544143053 1.06172028032 0.960372861121
II 0.940340784 1.06172028032 0.998378880781
III 0.952580666501 1.06172028032 1.011374212262
 IV 0.97000506153 1.06172028032 1.029874045836
TOTAL 3.767470655084 4

LOS INDICES ESTACIONALES TIPICOS CORREGIDOS

I 0.960372861121 96.04%
II 0.998378880781 99.84%
III 1.011374212262 101.14%
IV 1.029874045836 102.99%

INTERPRETACIÓN

Las ventas para el trimestre IV están 2.99% arriba del trimestre típico, y para el trimestre I 3.96% abajo del

Estos resultados no deben sorprendernos, puesto que hay ventas de productos que bajan y suben de acue
 VALOR ESTACIONAL
ESPECIFICO

0.937032543799
0.947975891582
0.964937857197
0.894711893112
0.937745232717
0.963155437585
0.970392771502
0.912134831931
0.946244575483
0.946610670337
0.974684555892
0.906785704115

IV
0.964937857197
0.970392771502
0.974684555892

0.97000506153
el trimestre I 3.96% abajo del típico (100 - 96.04).

tos que bajan y suben de acuerdo a la temporada