SERIES SYSTEM RELIABILITY.

DIFFERENT LENGTH FIBER STRENGTH DATA

PROCESSING AND PREDICTION

Initial information :

1.Fiber strength sample_1 : . Fiber length ,

2. Fiber strength sample_2 : . Fiber length .
3. Fiber strength cumulative distribution function (cdf):

Problems are

1. Processing of sample_1
1.1. Provide fitting of sample_1 (Fig.1).
1.2. Estimate cdf parameter using sample_1.
1.3. Calculate the OSPPT statistic (OSPPt) for fitting of sample_1
2. Processing of sample_2
2.1. Provide predictions of order statistics of sample_2.
2.2. To do graphical comparison of real and predicted order statistics (Fig.2-3).
2.3. Calculate the OSPPT statistic (OSPPt) for fitting of sample_2.

Some theoretical considerations

If for static strength S we have Weibull cdf

then for

where

=1/ .
Then expected values of j-th order statistics of i-th sample
= = + (- log( )+ ), , .
So we have the following regression model
= + (- log( )+ )+ , , ,
where random values with expected values equal to zero.
After calculation of and using real order statistic instead of we get
regression equation
).
It can be used for estimation of parameter using sample_1 : for fiber length ,
and then for prediction for fiber length ,

Assume that the expected value of j-th order statistic of sample with the size n is equal to -
quantile, i.e. to the root of equation

where .

So for we have approximate equation

And we have approximate solution

As a measure of order statistics prediction mistake the statistic is used.

For ,

= . (3)

where is -th order statistic in -th sample, ; is estimate of

; , are estimates of , ; , sample size with .

References

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weakest-link approach.Part 2. Weakest link distribution family. // Mechanics of
Composite Materials, 45(1), 2009 -65-74

2. Paramonov Yu., Andersons J., Kleinhofs M. MinMaxDM distribution family for tensile
strength of composite. //Reliability & Risk Analysis: Theory & Applications (e-journal),
vol.1, #1,2009, - 9-19 pp.
3. Paramonov Yu., Extended weakest link distribution family and analysis of fiber strength
dependence on length.// Composites: Part A 39(2008) pp. 950-955

4. Paramonov Yu., Andersons J., Kleinhofs M. and Paramonova A.. Markov model for
analysis of residual tensile strength of fiber composite.// Mech. of compos. mater. , vol.
44, #4, 2008, - 559-568 pp.

5. Paramonov Yu., Andersons J., Analysis of fiber strength dependence on its length by
weakest-link approach.Part 1. Weakest link distribution family// Mech. of compos. mater.
V. 44,#5, - 479-486 pp

6. Andersons J., Joffe R., Hojo M., Ochiai S. Glass fibre strength distribution determined by
common experimental methods // Comp. Sci. Techn. – 2002. - Vol. 62.- P. 131–145 .