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Climate Change and Food Systems


Annual Review of Environment and Resources
Vol. 37:195-222 (Volume publication date November 2012)

First published online as a Review in Advance on July 30, 2012

https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-130608 (https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-020411-
130608)

Sonja J. Vermeulen,1,2 Bruce M. Campbell,2,3 and John S.I. Ingram4,5


1Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Frederiksberg C, DK-1958, Denmark
2Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centers Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food

Security, Frederiksberg C, DK-1958, Denmark; email: s.vermeulen@cgiar.org (mailto:s.vermeulen@cgiar.org),


b.campbell@cgiar.org (mailto:b.campbell@cgiar.org)
3International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Cali, Colombia
4Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom; email: john.ingram@eci.ox.ac.uk

(mailto:john.ingram@eci.ox.ac.uk)
5
Natural Environment Research Council, Swindon SN2 1EU, United Kingdom


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Abstract

Food systems contribute 19%–29% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, releasing
9,800–16,900 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2008. Agricultural production, including
indirect emissions associated with land-cover change, contributes 80%–86% of total food system emissions,
with significant regional variation. The impacts of global climate change on food systems are expected to be
widespread, complex, geographically and temporally variable, and profoundly influenced by socioeconomic
conditions. Historical statistical studies and integrated assessment models provide evidence that climate
change will affect agricultural yields and earnings, food prices, reliability of delivery, food quality, and,
notably, food safety. Low-income producers and consumers of food will be more vulnerable to climate
change owing to their comparatively limited ability to invest in adaptive institutions and technologies under
increasing climatic risks. Some synergies among food security, adaptation, and mitigation are feasible. But
promising interventions, such as agricultural intensification or reductions in waste, will require careful
management to distribute costs and benefits effectively.

Keywords

food security (https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Food+Security), agriculture


(https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Agriculture), food chain
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(https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Food+Chain), mitigation
(https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Mitigation), adaptation Help

(https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Adaptation), greenhouse gas


(https://www.annualreviews.org/keyword/Greenhouse+Gas)

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