Capacity Planning at Genentech Student Worksheet

Estimated Number of Patients

Adapted from Exhibit 12 Expected Penetration Avastin
Cancer
Patients 2005 2010 2015 2005

Colorectal Cancer Treatment

front-line 40,000 55% 60% 65% 22,000
second-line 20,000 35% 35% 35% 7,000
other 120,000 5% 10% 15% 6,000
35,000

Grams per dose 0.375

Doses per year 20
Total grams per patient treated 7.5

Total grams for colorectal patients 262,500

Total kg for colorectal patients 263

Trial Probability of
Other Cancer indications Stage Trial Success
Lung
front-line 100% 75,000 5% 30% 30% 3,750
other 100% 35,000 2% 15% 15% 700
Breast
front-line 100% 140,000 30% 30% 0
other 100% 80,000 15% 15% 0
Kidney
front-line 100% 18,000 30% 30% 0
other 100% 18,000 15% 15% 0
Pancreatic
front-line 100% 16,000 30% 30% 0
other 100% 16,000 15% 15% 0
Other
front-line 100% 25,000 15% 30% 0
other 100% 25,000 8% 15% 0

Total patients 4,450

Grams per dose 0.75

Doses per year 12
total grams per patient treated 9

Total grams to treat other cancer indications 40,050

Total kg to treat other cancer indications 40

Total kg required for colorectal and other

cancer indications 303
Estimated Number of Patients Using
Avastin

2010 2015

24,000 26,000
7,000 7,000
12,000 18,000
43,000 51,000

0.375 0.375
20 20
7.5 7.5

322,500 382,500
323 383

22,500 22,500
5,250 5,250

42,000 42,000
12,000 12,000

5,400 5,400
2,700 2,700

4,800 4,800
2,400 2,400

3,750 7,500
2,000 3,750

102,800 108,300

0.75 0.75
12 12
9 9

925,200 974,700
925 975

1248 1357
 Capacity Planning at Genentech Student Worksheet

Kg/Batch
Recovered
Capacity/ Kg/Batch Less Bad
Tanks Tank Liters Batches/yr Kg/batch Recovered Batches
SSF 8 12000 15 9.0 5.9 4.7 96000
CCP1 0
CCP2 0
CCP3
Porrino 0
Rituxan Outsource 0
Herceptin Outsource 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

SSF
CCP1
CCP2
CCP3
Porrino
Rituxan Outsource 117 117 117 117 117 0 0 0
Herceptin Outsource 117 117 117 117 0 0 0

Genentech Capacity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Outsource Capacity 117 234 234 234 234 0 0 0
Total Capacity 117 234 234 234 234 0 0 0

Avastin Demand 303 492 681 870 1059 1248 1270 1292
Other Drug Demand 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1313 1375
Omnitarg 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Total Expected Demand 1303 1592 1881 2170 2459 2748 2882 3017
et

2013 2014 2015

0 0 0
0 0 0

0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

1313 1335 1357

1438 1500 1563
400 450 500
3151 3285 3420