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Ltd. INR 295-299: Avenue Supermarts (Dmart)
Ltd. INR 295-299: Avenue Supermarts (Dmart)
In terms of the valuations, on the upper price band of Rs. 299, the stock is valued at 32.5x on FY17 basis (annualized
9MFY17 EPS of Rs. 6.90). We believe that stock is valued at reasonable valuations given the listed peers such as Future
retail and Trent trading at ~37x FY17 & ~50x FY17 respectively. Further, strong financial performance (Topline CAGR 40%
against industry Avg.CAGR: ~10-15%, Avg.OPM: 7.3% against industry average: ~5-7% and Bottom-line CAGR 52% over
the period FY12-16) could also provide more opportunities to demand higher valuations in the coming time. Further, an
increase in the penetration among different Tier 2 & Tier 3 cities in the years to come could assist them to capture potential
market share and provides strong financial performance visibility going ahead. For the same reason, we have a
SUBSCRIBE rating on the issue.
Public Issue
Particulars %
QIP 50%
Non-Institution 15%
Retail 35%
Total 100%
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
Industry Overview:
India is one of the key consumer markets from where future growth is likely to emerge and it is estimated that India‘s
consumption expenditure will increase to USD 2,000bn by 2020. It is expected that India will rank among top 5 economies
and will surpass the consumption expenditure of developed economies like Italy, France and United Kingdom by 2030. House
hold consumption accounts for 60% of India’s GDP which is much higher share than China (37%) and on similar lines with UK
and US at 65% and 68%, respectively.
Contribution
Country 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020P
to GDP
UK 1,792 1,498 1,553 1,672 1,710 1,763 1,933 1,847 1,665 69%
U.S. 10,014 9,847 10,202 10,689 11,050 11,392 11,865 12,271 13,913 68%
Brazil 1,012 1,032 1,330 1,575 1,510 1,519 1,507 1,124 2,350 63%
Italy 1,424 1,325 1,296 1,400 1,276 1,302 1,312 1,108 1,143 63%
India 424 485 553 651 760 877 1,011 1,125 2,000 58%
Germany 2,075 1,963 1,915 2,078 1,970 2,074 2,112 1,813 2,108 57%
Indonesia 309 317 424 494 517 518 509 491 909 56%
France 1,615 1,514 1,486 1,596 1,492 1,560 1,572 1,332 1,470 55%
Thailand 156 149 177 196 209 218 211 - 339 55%
Malaysia 103 99 122 143 156 167 177 160 295 51%
China 1,608 1,809 2,079 2,615 3,019 3,424 3,954 - 10,024 36%
Source: World Bank, Technopak Research & Analysis
2 KRChoksey - Institutional Research
AVENUE SUPERMARTS Ltd.
Increasing Urbanization: Urbanization began after India was independent. Also factors such as better standard of living,
education opportunities etc lead people to migrate to towns and cities. The growth of industries contributed to the growth of
cities leading to a migration of people towards industrial areas in search of employment opportunities.
Young Demographics and Reducing Dependency Ratio: India is a country with Young population where 65% of the
population is below 35 years of age and approximately 78% of the population is below 45 years of age. Compared to other
top 10 economies (including China), India has the lowest median age and this trend will be even more pronounced in next 2
decades as most other populations age. This young generation is more aspiration, well-connected & networked, tech-savvy,
mobile and has high spending power. This young population with rising incomes will have a significant impact on retailing and
consumption of many categories and products as this class will be consuming a greater number of lifestyle categories than
their parents.
Retails Consumption Trends in India: The food and groceries (F&G) segment constitutes a majority share of the retail
market (67%). F&G will continue to be the largest contributor in the retail market even four years hence with a projected
share of 66% in 2020. 16 Indian states contribute approximately 85% of the total retail spend and are expected to continue
to have a significant share of the total retail consumption. Retail opportunity in three southern states – Karnataka, Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana is currently approximately USD100bn.
In 2020, the F&G segment is projected to witness the current pace of robust growth and reach a 5% share of organized retail
penetration.
Categories 2012 2016 20120
Total Organized Retail (US$ Bn) 27 55 115
Food & Grocery 1.5% 3.0% 5.0%
Apparel & Accessories 20.0% 22.0% 32.5%
Jewelry & Watches 38.0% 40.0% 43.5%
CDIT 26.0% 27.0% 30.0%
Home & Living 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Pharmacy & Wellness 23.0% 25.0% 32.0%
Footwear 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Others 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
It operates and managed all the stores on an ownership model (if any that are on lease for 30 years). The focus for opening
stores remains on efficient supply chain, targeting densely-populated residential areas with a majority of lower-middle,
middle and aspiring upper-middle class consumers. Its first store was opened in Mumbai, Maharashtra in 2002 and they plan
reach store network in southern and western India and gradually expand our network in other parts of India as an expansion
strategy. Currently our network includes
Peers:
Comparison is done between players belonging to Hypermarkets, supermarkets and regional players on basis of sales per
sqft, number of stores, average Store size per sqft and revenue of Key Players
Emerging
Star Bazar Hypermarket 7 10
National
Spencer's
Hypermarket National NA 37
Hypermarket
CESE Limited 24
Spencer's Supermarket/ National NA 84
Hypermarket Conveniance store
Emerging
K Raheja Corp Hypercity Hypermarket 10 17 5
National
Avenue Emerging
D'Mart Supermarket 55 110 39
Supermarkets National
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
Spencer's
Hypermarket National
Hypermarket
CESE Limited 1200 1850
Spencer's Supermarket/
National
Supermarket Convenience Store
Avenue Hybrid
D'Mart Emerging National 2350 8650
Supermarkets Supermarket
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
Financials
Balance Sheet:
Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 9MFY17
Share capital 5,335.4 5,440.6 5,467.5 5,615.4 5,615.4 5,615.4
Reserves and surplus 1,481.6 2,454.9 4,088.3 6,376.8 9,588.8 13439.0
Minority Interest 3.0 3.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0
Non-current liabilities
Long-term borrowings 2,643.2 3,711.6 4,568.4 7,137.8 9,084.7 12277.0
Deferred tax liabilities (Net) 129.7 201.0 265.1 305.1 398.7 476.0
Other long term liabilities 113.4 133.9 124.4 160.8 161.7 12.0
Long Term Provisions 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7
Current liabilities
Short-term borrowings 633.3 623.7 546.6 436.9 1,297.0 144.0
Trade payables 643.7 943.9 1,225.9 1,185.1 1,918.3 2375.0
Other current liabilities 897.7 1,346.0 1,701.3 2,150.3 2,770.0 2937.0
Short-term provisions 27.7 61.9 88.0 178.1 164.6 398.0
Total 11,908.8 14,920.7 18,076.5 23,548.1 31,001.9 37678.0
Assets
Tangible assets 7,772.9 9,215.8 11,680.7 15,240.9 20,891.8 23227.0
Intangible assets 17.7 30.8 36.2 39.9 43.4 69.0
Capital Work-in-progress 849.4 1,181.1 887.8 981.2 816.9 2055.0
Total Fixed Assets 8,640.0 10,427.7 12,604.7 16,262.0 21,752.0 25352.0
Non Current Investments 137.6 159.5 152.4 145.6 274.8 424.0
Long term loans and advances 355.3 526.2 425.8 801.6 1,073.6 1071.0
Other Non Current Assets 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.1 3.0 7.0
Current assets
Current Investments 89.2 0.1 3.0 6.7 18.6 168.0
Inventories 1,957.4 2,762.3 3,783.3 5,396.1 6,716.9 8477.0
Trade receivables 56.3 132.9 95.4 70.7 84.2 405.0
Cash and bank balances 479.2 616.2 554.1 380.4 351.0 494.0
Short-term loans and advances 179.9 294.7 454.8 481.4 723.9 1273.0
Other current assets 14.0 1.1 2.9 1.5 4.1 7.0
Total 11,908.8 14,920.7 18,076.5 23,548.1 31,001.9 37678.0
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
Cash Flow
Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 9MFY17
PBT 887.3 1411.4 2448.5 3226.5 4929.0 6066.0
Net cash from Operating Activities 653.6 1270.9 1981.4 2220.2 4471.4 3781.0
Net Cash from Investing Activities -1289.2 -2308.9 -2701.7 -4738.8 -6583.4 -4971.0
Net Cash from in Financing Activities 934.9 1175.4 652.3 2344.5 2081.8 1333.0
Net increase/(decrease) in Cash 299.4 137.4 -68 -174.1 -30.2 142.0
Source: KRChoksey research, RHP
We, Nirvi Ashar (B.com, MBA), and Dhavan Shah (B.com, MBA) research analyst, author and the name subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this
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