Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Title Page
Stockton University
Environmental Science and Geology Program
Instructor: Dr. Tait Chirenje
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Abstract
Growth in New Jersey’s population and economy over the past thirty-five years has
produced dramatic changes in land-use at the county and municipal scales. Such changes can be
analyzed to determine a baseline for temporal and spatial trends that can then be used to inform
future land-use planning and development. The objective of this study was to assess land-use
changes in Ocean County and Toms River Township between 1986-2015. I used ArcMap 10.8.1
by esri™ to generate a series of land-use maps based on NJDEP Bureau of GIS data obtained
from Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files (T:) that show changes in urban, agricultural,
forest, water, wetlands, and barren land over the 29-year study period. In MS Excel, I analyzed
land-use data obtained from Rowan University and the attribute tables of ArcMap, using pivot
tables to generate a series of land-use change tables. Data analysis showed that urban areas
expanded by more than 35,000 and 4,000 acres in the county and township, respectively.
Simultaneously, forested areas declined by more than 26,000 and 3,000 acres in the county and
township, respectively. With virgin land dwindling in Ocean County and Toms River Township,
planners will have to focus efforts on redevelopment and smart growth to curb the negative
Table of Contents
Title Page ........................................................................................................................................ 1
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 2
Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 3
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4
Methods........................................................................................................................................... 6
Results and Discussion ................................................................................................................... 7
Ocean County .............................................................................................................................. 7
Toms River Township ............................................................................................................... 11
Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 16
References ..................................................................................................................................... 17
Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 21
Appendix I: Tables .................................................................................................................... 21
A. Ocean County Urban Land Use Codes (1986 and 2015) ............................................... 21
B. Toms River Township Urban Land Use Codes (1986 and 2015) .................................. 22
Appendix II: Figures ................................................................................................................. 23
A. Land-use Map for Toms River Township (2007) .......................................................... 23
B. Land-use Map for Toms River Township (2012) .......................................................... 23
Table of Contents
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Introduction
New Jersey is the fourth-smallest state in terms of total land area, yet is the eleventh-most
populous state in the United States. As such, New Jersey has the highest population density in
the nation of approximately 1,206 people/mi2 as of 2022 and is the only state in the nation where
every county is categorized as “urban” by the U.S. Census Bureau (World Population Review,
2022). Given the continued population growth over the past decade, New Jersey is projected to
reach build-out as soon as 2030 and will become the first state in the United States to reach this
developmental status (ANJEC, 2020). As New Jersey nears this landmark, monitoring land-use
changes becomes increasingly paramount in the determination of how the state can proceed with
implications on the quality of life for urban residents. The loss of forest cover that is associated
with mass urbanization lowers surface albedo, increases the amount of insolation that is absorbed
and retained, and reduces evaporative cooling- a process referred to as the urban heat island
effect. Wichansky et al. (2008) found that present-day urban areas of the New Jersey coastal
plain were 0.3-0.6°C warmer on average than the historical landscape, with daily maximum
temperatures being greater than 1.0°C warmer in urban centers of northeastern New Jersey. This
finding raises concerns that urban areas in New Jersey may be impacted more severely by
extreme summertime heat waves caused by climate change. The loss of natural land cover in
favor of impervious surfaces also increases stormwater runoff, leading chemical contaminants
from landscaped lawn areas and wastewater treatment facilities to enter groundwater that is used
for public supply. Stackelberg et al. (1997) found that groundwater samples from shallow wells
in urban areas of Glassboro, New Jersey had higher concentrations of nitrates, pesticides, and
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VOCs relative to samples taken from undeveloped areas. Similarly, Barringer et al. (2013) found
residential areas tended to be higher than concentrations in water discharging to the Squankum
Branch in forested areas. Fortunately, the Pinelands Comprehensive Management Plan (1980)
seeks to protect the ecological integrity of 1.1 million acres of New Jersey’s Pine Barrens
ecosystem and the underlying Kirkwood-Cohansey aquifer system, which contains “over 17
A gateway county to the Pine Barrens National Reserve, Ocean County is among the
fastest-growing counties in New Jersey, with a population growth rate of 10.5% between the
2010-2020 census (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). Ocean County lies along the Atlantic Coast and
is home to popular beaches for tourism and recreation such as Seaside Heights, Point Pleasant,
Long Beach Island, and Island Beach State Park. In addition to the abundant seasonal
employment opportunities offered by the $3.35 billion/year summertime leisure economy, Ocean
County is a desirable place to live due to its proximity to major job centers in Philadelphia, New
York City, and Atlantic City (Ocean County Planning Board, 2011). Within Ocean County,
Toms River Township is among the fastest-growing towns, with a population growth rate of
4.6% between the 2010-2020 census (U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). Therefore, the objective of this
study was to evaluate and compare land-use changes in Ocean County and Toms River
Township, New Jersey from 1986-2015 to determine the impacts of mass urbanization on the
local environment. In doing so, this study seeks to make recommendations for future
development and land-use planning that are tailored to this county and municipality.
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Methods
To map land-use changes within Ocean County and Toms River Township, I added
NJDEP Bureau of GIS land-use data of New Jersey for the years 1986, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012,
and 2015 into ArcMap 10.8.1 by esri™ from Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files (T:).
For the 1986 data, the coordinate system had to be defined as New Jersey State Plane NAD1983
(US Feet) and I ensured the data for all other years matched this coordinate system. I used
Geoprocessing tools to intersect land-use data for each year to a previously created shapefile of
Ocean County, then repeated this process for a previously created shapefile of Toms River
Township. After creating a series of six land-use maps for both the county and municipality, I
changed the symbology by land-use category to reflect a color scheme where: urban areas are
represented in red, water features in blue, wetlands in yellow, agricultural land in light green,
barren lands in brown, and forested areas in dark green. To show the relationship between urban
land and forested land over time, I created a layered map that displayed urban land-use code
areas for 2015 (Anderson Classification System in shades of pink) overlying the extent of
forested land in 1986 (50% transparency) for Ocean County and Toms River Township.
To analyze land-use changes within Ocean County and Toms River Township, I opened
the attribute table for each of the maps I created in ArcMap and exported the data to MS Excel as
text files. In MS Excel, I used pivot tables to create land-use code (Anderson Classification
System) tables by descending total acreage for the county and municipality in 1986 and 2015. To
supplement this data, I downloaded the “Land Use Changes 1986-2015- State, Counties, and All
Municipalities” data set from Rowan University to MS Excel as a CSV file. From here, I selected
relevant data for Ocean County and Toms River Township for the years 1986, 1995, 2002, 2007,
2012, and 2015 and created tables showing acreage changes of each land-use category over time.
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Ocean County
with urban sprawl continuing southward along the coastline of Barnegat Bay and westward along
the border of Monmouth County (Figure 1). Forested areas in Ocean County showed the greatest
net decrease in acreage, with a net loss of 26,785 acres (13.4%) over the 29-year span (Table 1).
Urban areas in Ocean County showed the greatest net and percentage increase in acreage, with a
net gain of 35,463 acres (45.7%) over the 29-year span (Table 1). The most significant peak in
urban expansion occurred between 1995-2002, where the net acreage increased by 11,837 acres,
representing 33.4% of the total urban expansion that occurred between 1986-2015. Other notable
periods of urban expansion occurred between 1986-1995 and 2002-2007, representing 30.8%
and 25.0% of the total urban expansion that occurred between 1986-2015, respectively. Only
10.8% of the total urban expansion that occurred between 1986-2015 took place after 2007.
8
LEGEND
LAND USE
Figure 1. Maps of Ocean County, New Jersey displaying the six categories of land-use types for
the years of 1986, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2015. NJDEP Bureau of GIS data obtained from
Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files (T:). Map created using ArcMap 10.8.1 by esri™.
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most (26,785) followed by wetlands (4,667), agricultural land (3,842), and barren land (2,708).
In total, 38,002 acres were overtaken by urban development (35,463) and water (2,539) between
1986-2015.
Table 1. Acreage of the six land-use type categories for Ocean County, New Jersey in addition to
the net change for each of the categories over the 29-year span.
Land Use Barren
Type Urban Agriculture Forest Water Wetlands Lands Total
Acreage 1986 77,515 9,316 200,390 83,471 103,625 10,760 485,077
Acreage 1995 88,442 7,691 192,794 83,320 102,887 9,942 485,077
Acreage 2002 100,279 6,277 184,268 84,119 100,930 9,205 485,076
Acreage 2007 109,144 5,835 176,303 85,850 100,128 7,819 485,077
Acreage 2012 111,879 5,472 174,989 86,217 99,469 7,051 485,077
Acreage 2015 112,978 5,474 173,605 86,009 98,957 8,053 485,077
Net Change +35,463 -3,842 -26,785 +2,539 -4,667 -2,708
Data obtained from (Rowan University Dept. of Geography, Planning, & Sustainability, n.d.).
In terms of percentage decrease, agricultural land had the largest loss of acreage at a
41.2% loss, with most of this loss occurring between 1986-2007. Recognizing the loss of Ocean
County’s agricultural identity, the Ocean County Agriculture Development Board created the
Ocean County Farmland Preservation Program in 1984, which was responsible for preserving
3,357 acres of farmland between 1991-2020 (Ocean County Dept. of Planning, 2020).
In terms of percentage decrease, wetlands had the smallest loss of acreage at a 4.5% loss,
with most of this loss occurring between 1995-2002. The comparatively minimal loss of
wetlands can largely be attributed to the Wetlands Act of 1970 and New Jersey Freshwater
Wetlands Protection Act of 1987, which are regarded as some of the strictest wetland laws in the
nation and protect buffer areas (NJDEP Division of Science, Research, & Technology, 2002).
However, such legislation still permitted minimal annual disturbances of wetlands, which can
likely explain the incremental loss of wetland acreage seen in Ocean County between 1986-2015.
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Figure 2. Maps of Ocean County, New Jersey displaying urban (shades of pink according to
Anderson Classification System land-use code) and forest (green) land cover differences
between 1986 and 2015. Left map shows extent of urban and forested land in 1986. Right map
shows the extent of urban land in 2015 overlying the former extent of forested land in 1986.
NJDEP Bureau of GIS data obtained from Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files (T:). Map
created using ArcMap 10.8.1 by esri™.
Urban land area in Ocean County increased between 1986-2015 primarily at the expsense
of forested land area, with residential areas holding the largest increase by acreage (Figure 2).
Among residential areas, medium density, single family units of lot sizes up to one half acre (LU
code 1120) held the largest increase by acerage from 1986-2015 (Appendix IA). Medium density
development was concentrated in the northeastern section of Ocean County and along the
coastline of Barnegat Bay. High density, single family units or multi-family dwellings (LU code
1110) held the second-largest increase by acreage between 1986-2015 (Appendix IA). High
density development was primarily concentrated further west of the medium density
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development within the northeastern section of Ocean County and along the Atlantic barrier
islands. Low density, single family units (LU code 1130) held the third-largest increase by
acerage between 1986-2015 (Appendix IA). Low density development was relatively scattered,
but generally sprawled westward along the border of Monmouth County and southward along
According to the Ocean County Planning Board’s Comprehensive Master Plan (2011),
“Planning Areas” of the State Development and Redevelopment Plan were enacted in Ocean
County to focus development in PA2 (Suburban Planning Area) while protecting PA5
developments and econmically-productive coastal and northern sections of Ocean County, thus
explaining the rapid urbanization in northeastern Ocean County between 1986-2015. Conversely,
the New Jersey Pinelands Comprehensive Management Plan (1980) created restrictive land-use
guidelines for approximately 45% of Ocean County that lies within the Pine Barrens National
Reserve, thus explaining the relative lack of inland development in central and southern Ocean
The majority of Toms River Township was already urbanized in 1986, though
urbanization intensified in the northwestern section of the town from 1986-2015 (Figure 3).
Following the trend of Ocean County as a whole, forested areas in Toms River showed the
greatest net decrease in acreage, with a net loss of 3,178 acres (41.9%) over the 29-year span
(Table 2). Urban areas in Toms River similarly showed the greatest net and percentage increase
in acreage, with a net gain of 4,168 acres (31.2%) %) over the 29-year span (Table 2). The most
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significant peak in urban expansion occurred between 1986-1995, where the net acreage
increased by 1,829 acres, representing 43.9% of the total urban expansion that occurred between
representing 29.4% of the total urban expansion that occurred between 1986-2015. Since only
26.8% of the total urban expansion that occurred between 1986-2015 took place after 2002, land-
use maps for 2007 and 2012 are not displayed in this section, but can be found in Appendix II.
1986 1995
2002 2015
LEGEND
LAND USE
Figure 3. Maps of Toms River Township, New Jersey displaying the six categories of land-use
types for the years of 1986, 1995, 2002, and 2015. NJDEP Bureau of GIS data obtained from
Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files (T:). Map created using ArcMap 10.8.1 by esri™.
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most (3,178) followed by agricultural land (555), wetlands (321), and barren land (295).
In total, 4,349 acres were overtaken by urban development (4,168) and water (181) between
1986-2015.
Table 2. Acreage of the six land-use type categories for Toms River Township, New Jersey in
addition to the net change for each of the categories over the 29-year span.
Land Use Type Urban Agriculture Forest Water Wetlands Barren Land Total
Acreage 1986 13,380 715 7,578 7,727 3,773 544 33,716
Acreage 1995 15,209 495 6,164 7,727 3,666 455 33,716
Acreage 2002 16,433 320 5,241 7,870 3,533 319 33,716
Acreage 2007 17,221 225 4,640 7,913 3,483 235 33,716
Acreage 2012 17,419 173 4,553 7,917 3,464 190 33,716
Acreage 2015 17,548 160 4,400 7,909 3,452 248 33,716
Net Change +4,168 -555 -3,178 +181 -321 -295
Data obtained from (Rowan University Dept. of Geography, Planning, & Sustainability, n.d.).
In terms of percentage decrease, agricultural land had the largest loss of acreage at a
77.6% loss, with most of this loss occurring between 1986-2002. This municipal trend follows
that of the county trend, but the rate of loss of agricultural land at the municipal level is nearly
two-fold that of the county level. In 1986, agricultural land is easily visible in the northwestern
section of the town, but by 2015 nearly all agricultural land had become urbanized (Figure 3).
In terms of percentage decrease, wetlands had the smallest loss of acreage at an 8.5%
loss, with most of this loss occurring between 1986-2002. This municipal trend follows that of
the county trend, but the rate of loss of wetlands at the municipal level is nearly two-fold that of
the county level. However, it must be fairly noted that the total acreage of new wetlands
1986 LEGEND
Urban LU Code (1986)
2015 LEGEND
Urban LU Code (2015)
Figure 4. Maps of Toms River Township, New Jersey displaying urban (shades of pink
according to Anderson Classification System land-use code) and forest (green) land cover
differences between 1986 and 2015. Top map shows extent of urban and forested land in 1986.
Bottom map shows the extent of urban land in 2015 overlying the former extent of forested land
in 1986. NJDEP Bureau of GIS data obtained from Stockton University’s Faculty Course Files
(T:). Map created using ArcMap 10.8.1 by esri™.
Urban land area in northwestern Toms River increased between 1986-2015 primarily at
the expsense of forested land area, with residential areas holding the largest increase by acreage
(Figure 4). Similar to the trend observed for Ocean County, medium density, single family units
of lot sizes up to one half acre (LU code 1120) and high density, single family units or multi-
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family dwellings (LU code 1110) replaced most of the remaining forest patches in northwestern
Toms River by 2015. Much of the land use code 1100 (residential) was split into 1120 (single
unit, medium density) and 1110 (high density or multiple dwelling) between 1986-2015
(Appendix IB).
The growth of urban areas in Toms River can largely be attributed to economic growth
and population increase. Over the 29-year period studied, Toms River added 335 acres of
commercial lands, which created additional jobs and shopping opportunities. By 2015,
commercial lands (LU code 1200) comprised the third-largest land-use in the town by acerage
(Appendix IB). Due in part to these attractive economic condititions, the population of Toms
River Township increased from 76,371 people in 1990 to 95,438 people in 2020 (NJSDC, 2001;
U.S. Census Bureau, 2022). Residential expansion was necessary to accommodate an additional
19,000 people in this 30-year period, which explains why medium density (LU code 1120) and
high density (LU code 1110) residential developments are the first- and second-largest land-uses
in the town by acerage, respectively (Appendix IB). Much of Toms River is classified as a PA2
(Suburban Planning Area) under the State Development and Redevelopment Plan, thus
residential expansion of this magnitude occurred by design (Roberts & Stahl, 2017).
Based on a study done by Rutgers University, there was an estimated 6,324 acres of
developable land availible in Toms River Township as of 1995, which is comparable to the sum
of non-urban areas in Table 2 for 1995 (Lathrop & Conway, 2001). By the time the Land Use
Plan Element of the Toms River Township Master Plan was drafted in 2017, it was estimated
that less than 3,287 acres of developable land remained in Toms River Township, which is
comparable to the sum of non-urban areas in Table 2 for 2015 when recently preserved Open
Space land is accounted for (Roberts & Stahl, 2017). Recognizing that Toms River was rapidly
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approaching build-out, the Toms River Township Council adopted the Downtown Master Plan in
Roberts (2021), the goal of this plan is to revitalize Downtown Toms River and transform it into
a sustainable urban area that is “compact, complete, and connected.” The Toms River Township
consturcted on Water Street, signaling a shift away from sprawling development (Roberts, 2021).
Conclusion
The land-use changes in Ocean County over the 29-year span of 1986-2015 show that the
county has accommodated regional growth and protected the Pine Barrens National Reserve by
concentrating residential development towards the coastline. Toms River Township, a Suburban
Planning Area within Ocean County, closely mirrors the county-level land-use trends over this
span, but is currently on the verge of build-out. Township planners will need to focus on
accommodate any further population growth (Roberts & Stahl, 2017). Although urbanization
occurred rapidly in these study sites at the expense of virgin forests, a considerable portion of
Ocean County’s Pinelands remained protected during the study period and Toms River
Township planners have increasingly adopted smart growth principles in recent years.
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References
content/uploads/2020/12/smart-growth-planning.pdf.
Barringer, J.L., Szabo, Z., Reilly, P.A., & Riskin, M.L. (2013). Variable contributions of
Mercury from groundwater to a first-order urban coastal plain stream in New Jersey,
1475-7.
Lathrop, R.G., & Conway, T.M. (2001). A build-out analysis of the Barnegat Bay Watershed.
file:///C:/Users/kyles/Downloads/A_Build-
out_Analysis_of_the_Barnegat_Bay_Watershed.pdf.
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (1998). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 1986 [Data set]. Retrieved
February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT, Spring 2022,
NewJerseyLanduseShapefiles, ocelulc.shp.
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (2000). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 1995-1997 [Data set].
Retrieved February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT, Spring
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (2007). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 2002 [Data set]. Retrieved
February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT, Spring 2022,
NewJerseyLanduseShapefiles, Land_lu_2002.shp.
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (2010). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 2007 generalized [Data
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set]. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT,
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (2015). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 2012 generalized [Data
set]. Retrieved February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT,
NJDEP Bureau of GIS. (2019). Land use/Land cover of New Jersey 2015 [Data set]. Retrieved
February 3, 2022, from Faculty Course Files (T:), NAMS, ChirenjT, Spring 2022,
NewJerseyLanduseShapefiles, Land_lu_2015.shp.
NJDEP Division of Science, Research, & Technology. (2002). Creating indicators of wetland
status (quantity and quality): Freshwater wetland mitigation in New Jersey. Retrieved
New Jersey population trends 1790 to 2000. NJSDC 2000 Census Publication-P2000-3.
https://www.state.nj.us/labor/lpa/census/2kpub/njsdcp3.pdf.
Ocean County Dept. of Planning. (2020). Agriculture Development Board & farmland
https://planning.co.ocean.nj.us/frmEPFarmlandPreservation.
Ocean County Planning Board. (2011). Ocean County, New Jersey 2011 comprehensive master
https://www.co.ocean.nj.us/WebContentFiles/fedb8826-cb81-4b9f-be8d-
e71e4fcd1fa4.pdf.
Roberts, D.G. (2021). Township of Toms River redevelopment plan for phase 1 downtown
19
https://www.tomsrivertownship.com/DocumentCenter/View/3534/Waterfront-Phase-1-
Redevelopment-Plan-Amendment-No2-Adopted-12-14-21?bidId=.
Roberts, D.G., & Stahl, E.F. (2017). Township of Toms River master plan: Land use plan
https://www.tomsrivertownship.com/DocumentCenter/View/431/Goals-and-Objectives-
Land-Use-Element-Revised-Draft-for-Public-Distribution-PDF.
Rowan University Dept. of Geography, Planning, & Sustainability. (n.d.). NJ Map: Land use
changes 1986-2015- State, counties, and all municipalities [Data set]. Retrieved
Stackelberg, P.E., Hopple, J.A., & Kauffman, L.J. (1997). Occurrence of nitrate, pesticides, and
https://www.academia.edu/69929741/Occurrence_of_nitrate_pesticides_and_volatile_org
anic_compounds_in_the_Kirkwood_Cohansey_aquifer_system_southern_New_Jersey.
United States Census Bureau. (2022). QuickFacts: Toms River Township, Ocean County, New
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/tomsrivertownshipoceancountynewjersey,o
ceancountynewjersey/PST045221.
Wichansky, P.S., Steyaert, L.T., Walko, R.L., & Weaver, C.P. (2008). Evaluating the effects of
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historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land
World Population Review. (2022). New Jersey population 2022. Retrieved February
Appendices
Appendix I: Tables
B. Toms River Township Urban Land Use Codes (1986 and 2015)
Toms River Toms River
Urban LU Total Urban LU Total
Code (1986) Acreage Code (2015) Acreage
1100 12673.1 1120 8299.4
1200 1842.6 1110 3666.3
1400 1095.6 1200 2177.8
1700 831.3 1140 1744.9
1800 308.7 1130 1193.6
1300 289.9 1800 856.5
1804 212.2 1700 758.1
1461 116.2 1410 744.4
1309 78.2 1300 411.0
1209 76.5 1400 343.3
1709 66.8 1499 248.7
1109 37.3 1804 189.7
1409 7.4 1710 114.5
1463 105.1
1420 74.1
1500 14.7
1462 13.7
1600 10.7
1211 3.5
1810 3.0
23
2007
LEGEND
LAND USE
2012