Analysis and Modeling of Reliability

Data Using JMP 11: Recurrence

Analysis
David C. Trindade, Ph.D., Bloom Energy
Chris Gotwalt, Ph.D., JMP
June 2014

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 Topics
 Reliability Concepts and Terminology
 Life Distributions Fitting
 Accelerated Life Testing (Fit Life by X)
 Recurrence Analysis
 Degradation Studies
 Reliability Forecasting
 Block Diagrams
 Reliability Growth

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 3

Non-Repairable Vs.
Repairable Systems
The usual assumptions we make for non-repairable components is
that the times to failure are a true random sample from a single
population. Consequently, the observations are independent and
identically distributed.

The implication is that individual failure times can be combined for

analysis, neglecting any order of occurrence in the original data.

Are these assumptions valid for repairable systems?

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 4

Case Study Example

New Production Equipment:

System used in manufacturing which contained a
single, replaceable board. Upon failure, repairs
were made by replacing failed board with new
board from the same population in stockpile.
Analysis:
Engineers wanted to model the reliability of the
system based on failure data obtained during the
first 1000 hours of operation.

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 5

System Repair History

Repairs were done at system ages (in hours)
108, 178, 273, 408, 548, 658, 838, and 988.

A dot plot of repair times is shown below.

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 6

Case Study Weibull Analysis

The engineers analyzed the system data by taking the time
for each replacement board to fail, that is, the times
between repairs, and treating those times as a group of
independent and identically distributed (iid) observations
arising from a single population of failure times.
The actual order in which these times occurred (age of
system at repair) was ignored.
Analysis methods used were:
Weibull probability plotting of data, parameter estimation, model fitting.

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 7

Weibull Analysis of Data

The times between repairs are called the
interarrival times and calculated below:

For Weibull analysis, the order of interarrival times

is not considered.

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 8

JMP Data Table and Analysis Platform

We run the Life Distribution

Platform using Times Between
Failures for Y, Time to Event

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 9

JMP Life Distribution Analysis

The Weibull distribution appears to be a good fit to the data.

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 10

JMP Life Distribution Analysis

Weibull probability plot shows data points falling close to a straight line.

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 11

Weibull Statistics
The Weibull parameters show a characteristic life
a ≈ 136 hours and a shape parameter b ≈ 4.3.
For the Weibull distribution, b > 1.0 indicates an
increasing hazard rate.

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 12

Weibull Hazard Profiler

Hazard Profiler shows increasing hazard rate.

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 13

Engineering View of Analysis

Engineers concluded times between repairs followed
a Weibull distribution.
Of concern was that the estimated Weibull shape
parameter, b, indicated an increasing “failure rate.”
The equipment engineers thus felt the machine
needed to be brought down for additional repair and
maintenance before “things got much worse”.
Were these conclusions justified or misleading based
on analyzing the boards as non-repairable
components?

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 JMP Recurrence Analysis Platform
Data Table

Recurrence Analysis Input Box

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 MCF Plot of Number of Repairs Vs. Age

MCF is Mean MCF plot for a

Cumulative (or single system is
Cost) Function called a
= average cumulative plot
number of = cumulative
repairs per number of
system versus repairs versus
age system age

No evidence of system reliability getting worse with time.

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 Plot of Times Between Repairs Vs. Age

Graph shows times between repairs actually becoming longer.

System reliability is improving!
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 Misleading Weibull Analysis

Analysis of repairable system data using non-

repairable Weibull analysis methods produced
misleading conclusions.
Wrong interpretation caused by the neglect of the
occurrence order of failures in Weibull analysis.
With correct analysis, engineers avoided expensive
maintenance actions that were not necessary.

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 Analysis of Multiple Repairable Systems
We’ll use JMP sample data file Engine Valve Seat.jmp
which records valve seat replacements in locomotive
engines (Nelson, 2003). Partial table shown.

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 Analysis of Valves as Non-Repairable
Components (Replacements)
Partial Table of Original and
Replacement Times to Failure.

Censor = 1 and Failure Time = 0.

Two Zero Times Excluded from

Analysis.

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 Event Plot for Valves as Non-Repairable
Components (Replacements)
Arrow Indicates Censored
Observation

X Indicates Repair

Two Zero Times Excluded

from Analysis.

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 Lifetime Distribution Platform

Lognormal distribution appears to fit data very well.

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 Hazard Rate Profiler

Profiler shows hazard rate increasing early in life, peaking around

100 days, and then decreasing thereafter.
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 Analysis of Valves on Locomotive as
Repairable Systems

MCF plot shows repair rates sharply

increasing at 500 days. Wearout occurring?

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 Lessons Learned
Analysis of repairable system data using non-repairable
analysis methods can produce misleading results.

For repairable systems, the time order in which failures

occur can be a very important factor for analysis.

For individual systems, a cumulative plot shows the

repair history graphically. For multiple systems, the
MCF plot can reveal trends in the collective behavior
of a group of systems.

In addition to failure counts, MCF for costs can provide

valuable insight into repair expenses as systems age.
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 Review of AR-1 Continued
• Accelerated Testing (continued)
• Activation Energy
• Eyring Models
• Determining Model Parameters
• Matrix Reliability Studies and Example
• Planning Guidelines
• Degradation Modeling
• Sample Sizes for Accelerated Testing

• System Models
• Series System
• Parallel System
• Analysis of Complex Systems
• Standby Redundancy

• Defective Subpopulations
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