MATH031 P1 Group 10

Exercise 5

Number of Vehicles and Car Crash Deaths in The Philippines, 2006-2015

Crash Number of Vehicles and Car Crash Deaths

Vehicles
Year
x
deaths in the Philippines
y 12000
2006 5,337,781 6,869
2007 5,543,826 7,305 10000

2008 5,901,804 7,335

8000
2009 6,224,942 7,704
2010 6,634,855 8,423 6000

2011 7,138,942 8,023 4000

2012 7,463,393 8,331
2013 7,690,038 8,761 2000

2014 8,081,224 8,666 0

4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 8000000 9000000 10000000
2015 8,706,607 10,012

Data from the PSA show that the number of road crash deaths in our country is
increasing since 2006, majority of these deaths being pedestrians, and people aged from
20 to 24 years old. There are numerous causes of vehicular accidents, such as speeding,
ignoring traffic lights and signals, drunken driving, carelessness, being distracted, etc.
However, another possible contributing factor to this issue is the number of vehicles on
our roads. Data from the LTO show that the number of vehicles in our country is also
increasing every year. Based on these data, it could be inferred that a rise in the number
of vehicles can contribute to the number of car crash deaths. There is a possible
correlation, since having more vehicles travelling the roads in our country increases the
likelihood of road accidents and deaths. This is further shown in the graph, where there is
a positive correlation between the two variables. However, it is important to note that the
number of vehicles is not the sole factor affecting the number of car crash deaths.
 x y xy x2 y2
5,337,781 6,869 36,665,217,689 28,491,906,003,961 47,183,161
5,543,826 7,305 40,497,648,930 30,734,006,718,276 53,363,025
5,901,804 7,335 43,289,732,340 34,831,290,454,416 53,802,225
6,224,942 7,704 47,956,953,168 38,749,902,903,364 59,351,616
6,634,855 8,423 55,885,383,665 44,021,300,871,025 70,946,929
7,138,942 8,023 57,275,731,666 50,964,492,879,364 64,368,529
7,463,393 8,331 62,177,527,083 55,702,235,072,449 69,405,561
7,690,038 8,761 67,372,422,918 59,136,684,441,444 76,755,121
8,081,224 8,666 70,031,887,184 65,306,181,338,176 75,099,556
8,706,607 10,012 87,170,549,284 75,805,005,452,449 100,240,144
SUM 68,723,412 81,429 568,323,053,927 483,743,006,134,924 670,515,867
n = 10
MEAN 6872341.20 8,142.90
r= 0.943671
The previous table shows the calculations of the variables to be plugged in the
equations for statistical analysis. The following is the regression equation based on the
gathered data:

Regression Equation

y− y=m( x−x )

∑ xy−n xy
m=
∑ x 2−n( x )2

568323053927−10 (6872341.20)( 8142.90)

m= 2
483743006134924−10(6872341.20)

m=0.000761

y−8142.90=0.000761( x−6872341.20)

y=0.000761 x +2913.0483468

The correlation coefficient based on the gathered data is the following:

Correlation Coefficient

n ( ∑ xy )−(∑ x)(∑ y )
r=
√ [ n ( ∑ x )− (∑ x ) ] [n ( ∑ y )− ( ∑ y ) ]
2 2 2 2

10 ( 568323053927 )−(68723412)( 81429)

r=
√ [ 10 ( 483743006134924 )−( 68723412 ) ] [10 ( 670515867 )−( 81429 ) ]
2 2
 r =0.943671
2
r =0.8905=89.05 %

The correlation is positive because the overall trend is upwards. Therefore, the
more the vehicles, the higher the crashes will be. The coefficient is also relatively close to
1, meaning that the x and y variables have a strong correlation.

Forecast

Using the regression equation, the following table shows the possible number of
car crash deaths in the country if the number of vehicles were to further increase.

Vehicles Annual car crash deaths 

x y
9,000,000 9762
9,500,000 10143
10,000,000 10523
10,500,000 10903
11,000,000 11284

References:

Philippines No of Registered Motor Vehicles. (n.d.). Retrieved from

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/philippines/no-of-registered-motor-vehicles.

Sy, K. (2017). IN NUMBERS: Road crash incidents in the Philippines. Retrieved from
https://www.rappler.com/moveph/advocacies/road-crashes-philippines-awareness-
safety.