Decisions Modeling For Reducing Uncertainties and Risks

Dukungan Multi-metode Pemodelan dan Simulasi
dalam Proses Pengambilan Keputusan untuk

mengurangi Ketidakpastian dan Resiko
Akhmad Hidayatno Ruang L301-302

Gedung Laboratorium
akhmad@eng.ui.ac.id Departemen Teknik Industri
Fakultas Teknik
Universitas Indonesia
systems.ie.ui.ac.id
Agenda
• Ketidakpastian dan Resiko dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

• Dukungan Pemodelan dan Simulasi untuk mengkaji dan mengurangi Resiko
Pengambilan Keputusan
• Perlu Pendekatan dan Metode Pemodelan dan Simulasi yang Tepat untuk
setiap Tipe Kasus Pengambilan Keputusan
• Studi kasus Multi-Methods Modeling (Pemodelan Multi Metoda) untuk
mendukung Pengambilan Keputusan yang Kompleks
Why making Decision is hard?
Because we will never have a “perfect” information
• Information in the Decision Making • There will not enough information

Process for Decision Making
Information
Unknown
Thinking on Decision
Decision
Ideal Amount Thinking is to compensate

of Information lack of information
Action
Without Perfect Information, there are Uncertainties
We must turn this uncertainties into RISK .. and Reduce it
Uncertainties Risk
• Situation where the current state of • A probability or threat of damage,

knowledge is such that injury, liability, loss, or any other
(1) the order or nature of things is unknown, negative occurrence that is caused
(2) the consequences, extent, or magnitude by external or internal
of circumstances, conditions, or events is
unpredictable, and vulnerabilities, and that may be
(3) credible probabilities to possible avoided through pre-emptive action.
outcomes cannot be assigned.
• RISK is loss focus.
• Although too much uncertainty is
• Whereas uncertainty deals with possible
undesirable, manageable uncertainty outcomes that are unknown, risk is a
provides the freedom to make certain type of uncertainty that involves
creative decisions. the real possibility of loss
• Uncertainties: Not Knowing, • Decision-making under conditions of
Knowing Too-little, Knowing risk should seek to identify, quantify,
Differently and absorb risk whenever possible.
• Uncertainty focuses in the Un-
known
Defining Risk Faced by Management can be identified by
Property, Net income, Liability, Fire, Accidents/incidents, Equipment

Personnel, Reputation, Opportunity Failure, Theft, Sabotage, Natural
Time (Scheduling), Quality, phenomena, Human Factors, Litigation,
Environment, Quality of life, External Financial failures, Failure of
supply, Market forces, Incompetence
Performance
What you have - that you could lost Stressor (Sources of Risk)
(Assets/Vulnerabilities/
Areas of Impact/Areas of Exposure)
Principle Methodology of Risk Management
Risk Assesment
Establish the Context Identify Risk
Strategic Context What can Happen?
Organizational Context How can it happen?
Risk Management Context
1 2
Analyze Risks
Determine Existing Control
Develop Establish Level of Risk through
Criteria 1b Monitor and Review
Likelihood and Consequence
Treat Risk Evaluate Risk

Evaluate treatment options Compare against criteria
Prepare treatment plans Set risk priorities
Implement Plan
5 4
The triangle criteria, focusing the attentions and developing boundaries
Risk
Risk Category
Category A
B
Criteria
Documents Risk
Category
organization strategic C
risk management Risk Selected

Assesed and Ranked Risks
Risk Treatment
Y
Process Risk Acceptable? Accept
Identify
Treatment
Options Reduced Reduced Transfer in
Avoid
Likelihood Consequences Full or in Part
Consider Feasibility Costs and Benefits

Evaluate
Treatment
Recommend Treatment Strategy
Options
Monitor
Select Treatment Strategy and
Review
Prepare
Treatment Plans Prepare Treatment Plans
Reduced Reduced Transfer in

Implement Avoid
Likelihood Consequences Full or in Part
Treatment
Plans
Part Retained Part Transferred
Y
Risk Acceptable? Retain
Illustration of the Decision Process
• (… and illustration on how we think about problems)
Decision Need
Triggers Answers to
Questions Kerangka
Cara Pandang Decision
Questions
Thinking is a Data
process of Fakta
Answering Konsekuensi
Pengalaman
Questions
Asumsi
To start thinking, Pengetahuan Action Based on
ask yourself a Konsep
question .. a good Decision
Teori
and well formulated
question
Agenda

Creating a “Realistic” Simulation
Simulation is deriving knowledge from experimenting with the model, with primary
assumptions, the behavior of the model will reflects the behavior of real systems
Scenario is set and sequence of changes to the

contextual situations of the models for analysis
3
Modeling is Process of Developing a

Model in a certain way in regards of model
purpose
1
Model is a Representation of Real World Systems in a
Simplified Form, usually in a different dimensional scale
What is Reality?
• Perfect Information could only be derived from reality ..but what is reality
We never actually think about real problems
• We think about the models of the real problems
Real
World
Real
Action
Feedback
From
Real World
Real
Decision
We reduced the real world to a mental model world
• The word “Mental” is used to highlight that the model is a combination of mind and emotion
Real
World
Real Feedback
Action From
Real World
Real
Decision
Model
Mental
Mental
Decision
The we created
• We think about the models of the real problems
Real
World
Real Feedback
Action From
Real World
Feedback
model Simulated
world Feedback
Real
Decision
Simulated
Simulated
Decision Environment
Model
Mental
Mental
Decision
We do cannot process the real problem
We create the model of the problem in our mind, simulate it, and then make decision
Simplified
Complex UNDERSTANDING Model of the
REAL PROBLEM Real Problems
Problems
Internal
Modeling Process Kerangka
Cara Pandang
we never actually solve real Data

problem, we solve the model Fakta Konsekuensi
problem before we make the Pengalaman
actual decision Asumsi
Because human has very Pengetahuan

limited capacity to process Konsep
information (comparing to the Teori
complexity of the problem)
Conceptualization: The Process of Developing Models from the Real Problems
• The model never complete, however the important part of it must be included
• Lets say you are walking outdoors and see a

lake with a friend
• This is what you see .. “the real world”
You want to impress him/her that you know the importance of lake in maintaining a
healthy hydrological cycle. What will you do? Because not all of the “sub-systems” is
visible in what you actually see..
You can tell a story : …bla..bla..bla .. Or
You can draw a drawing, and the understanding of that picture depends on your skills as:
Wow .. You are an artist Okay .. You took a sketch course

Well not all of us is can paint or draw beautifully
Let us represent this in just simple box, arrows, clouds
Rain evaporate
Lake
River Discharge
Inflows Outflows river
• Now, this I can do, and it does not require a sketch training or an artist
Systems Diagram: Best Practice in Conceptualization
can take client

?
policy measures defines
M1 M2 M3
lead objectives
wind to
safety
external also define

tide costs criteria
factors
ecology
stakeholders
rain
system
“system boundary”
What or Who do we call “actors”?
• Actors and Agents
problem owner
“actors” those who can act upon

the system are “agents”
stakeholders
Relations between core concepts
• Actors “Perspectives” are Important because They Decide and Influence the Model & Real World
actors
have
interests
lead to
objectives
set target
external
values for criteria factors
can take
Key factors have impact on

have impact on
have impact on
policy measures
Systems Diagram: Best Practice in Conceptualization
can take client

?
policy measures defines
M1 M2 M3
lead objectives
wind to
safety
external also define

tide costs criteria
factors
ecology
stakeholders
rain
system
“system boundary”
You will see in every models in SEMS UI: Systems-Actors Diagram
• An Example of Systems Diagram
The use of models and simulation helps you make better decisions
• 4 Ways models can help
Model Thinking helps you • You could use the simple templates to model a problem
frame the problem
• In Modeling the awareness of reductionism in problems definitions

Better Understanding of the are important
Problems • What you see as a problem, might not be seen by others as a
problem
• Through modeling and simulation you can predict and project the
consequences of the problems and from the solutions of the
Preparing for the problems
Consequences and Risks • It forces you to think quantitatively in order to develop the
solutions
The modeling process is a • The modeling process will force to see different perspectives of the
learning process that could problems
changes your perspectives • It can simulate an experiences, without actually experienced it
Agenda

Modeling and Simulation has been expanding to cater the needs for better
decisions
Problem descriptors Model typology
Time horizon from responsible authority Strategic-operational

Degree or direction of change Qualitative-quantitative
Ongoing or intermittent Continuous-discrete
Inherent system memory or not Dynamic-static
Where or when or both Spatial-temporal
Why or if Deterministic-stochastic
Availability of data Data rich-data poor
Knowledge rich or knowledge poor White box – black box
Modeling Tools, Methology and Approach

System Dynamics Regression analysis Network-based modelling
Statistical/Mathematical Optimization Agent-based modelling
Risk Modeling Discrete-Event Financial Modelling Expert systems

Physical systems modelling Multi-Method Modeling GIS-based models
26
26
Time Horizon (focus from responsible Authority)
• Long Term Modeling or Short Term Models
Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods
Long Term Perspective Strategic Models

> 5 years, Relative to the What If Systems Dynamics
Industry Structure-based Models GIS Modeling
Continuous Results (Behavior
Based)
Short Term Perspective Operational Models

What’s Best What’s Best Financial Modeling
Past Data Models Past Data (Historical) Models Risk Modeling
Discrete Results Discrete Results Optimization Methods
Discrete Event
Object Oriented
Modeling the Data or Modeling the Structure?
• Projection or Prediction?
What do you Predict?
Time
28
Degree or direction of change
You want to see where its heading or also want to know how much?
Direction Focus Semi-Qualitative Models

Where we are going to be Projection Models Mathematical Models
heading? What if+What Best Agent Based Models
Focuses on the output Network Models
Degree Focus Quantitative Models

Mathematical Models
How much have we Prediction Models
System Dynamics
change? What if+What Best
Focuses on the process to
meet the output
Intermittent or Ongoing
You want to see where or also want to know how much?
Intermittent Discrete Event Models

The key output, proses and Changes in intervals Discrete Event Modeling
input are changing or Exogenous focus Object Oriented Modeling
needed on large intervals Discrete Statistics Financial and Risk Modeling
(intermittent)
On Going Continuous Models

System Dynamics
The key output, proses and Changes continuously
Agent Based Modeling
input are changing or Endogenous focus
Network Modeling
needed continuously Continuous Statistics
Inherent Systems Memory or Not
Do the systems stored and used memory for decision making?
No Inherent Memory Static Models

The output of the model is Changes in intervals Discrete Event Modeling
not stored to be used for Exogenous focus Object Oriented Modeling
the next iteration of the Discrete Statistics Financial and Risk Modeling
model results Mathematical Models
Inherent Memory Dynamic Models

The model outputs was Changes continuously
System Dynamics
stored and used for the Endogenous focus
Agent Based Modeling
next iteration of the model Continuous Statistics
Network Modeling
results
Where or When or Both?
You want to see how its impacts on spatial locations or when it happens?
Spatial Focus Spatial Models

Where the spatial data Changes in Spatial Conditions GIS Models
and/or spatial results is Coupled with Geographical Object Oriented Modeling
needed Based Information
Multi-Methods Modeling
Temporal Focus Dynamic Models

We want to know what Changes in Time
happens in certain time or
System Dynamics
time-frame
Why or IF
Do the systems stored and used memory for decision making?
Why Deterministic Models

The focus is explaining why Trace Dependents (track back) Financial and Risk Modeling
it occurs Linear relationships Mathematical Models
If Stochastics Models
System Dynamics
The focus is try to gain Uncertainties in Variables Agent Based Modeling
results from different Non-linear relationships Network Modeling
changes or uncertainties in Discrete Event Modeling
the input and process Object Oriented Modeling
Sample Financial Model
Cash in – Cash out
•Land
Investments •Building
•Machineries
•Vehicles and others
• Raw Materials
Direct Cost • Direct labor
• Packaging cost
Cash Out Operational
• G&A
Indirect Cost • Sales and marketing
• Tax
•Loan repayment
Financing •Bank loan Interest
•Dividend payment
•Capital Injection
Investments
•Bank Loan
• Sales
Cash In Operational
• Loan drawdown
Financing • Capital Injection
Flow of Modules: Profit and Loss
Illustrative
•Sales Price
•Revenue
•Production Rate Revenue
•Inventory Days Production and •Sales Unit
Inventory
•Direct Costs
COGS
•Capex
•Depreciatio •COGS •COGS
n Period •Depreciatio •G&A Expenses
Assumptions Fixed Assets n •Sales and Marketing
Expenses
Cost and
P&L
•G&A Expenses Expenses
•Sales and Marketing Expenses
•Bank Loan •Interest Expenses

Financing
•Tax Rate
Flow of Modules: Cashflow Statement
Illustrative
•Sales Price
•Production Rate Revenue

Inventory •Revenue
•Cash Received from AR
•Direct Costs Account collection
COGS Receivables
•COGS
•Capex •Capex
Assumptions Fixed Assets
Cost and
Cashflow
•Sales and Marketing Expenses •COGS
•G&A Expenses
• Interest Payment Account Payables

•Capital Injection •Cash Payment to Suppliers
• Principal Payment
•Bank Loan
•Capital Injection
Financing
•Tax Payment
P&L
Flow of Modules: Balance Sheet
Illustrative
•Sales Price
•Production Rate Revenue P&L

Inventory •Revenue •Retained
•Ending balance of Account Earnings
•Direct Costs •COGS Account Receivables
COGS Receivables
•Ending balance of Inventory
•Capex
•Depreciatio
•Fixed Asset
n Period
•Accumulated Depreciation
Assumptions Fixed Assets
Cost and
Balance Sheet
•Sales and Marketing Expenses •COGS
•G&A Expenses
Account Payables
•Ending balance of
•Capital Injection • Capital Injection
Account Payables
•Bank Loan • Bank Loan Balance
Financing
•Cash Balance
Cashflow
Modeling Typology for Policy Making Process
We use exploratory approach in developing our model to focus on dynamic insight of behaviors, not the numbers
produced (predictive modeling). Model such as this one are useful, not because they predict the details of number, but because building
and using them improves our insight (Bankes, 1993).
Predictive Modeling Exploratory Modeling

“ trying to predict the unpredictable ” “ the search for insight ”
“Exploratory Modeling and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis” — Bankes(1993)
Availability of data
Are the data available?
Data Rich Data Rich Models

The secondary data for All relationships can be Financial and Risk Modeling
developing models are developed Mathematical Models
available, accessible and Validation is easy
reliable or the primary data
can be developed without
significant resources
Data Poor Data Poor Models

System Dynamics
The secondary data is All relationships must be Agent Based Modeling
difficult to find, and the developed by proper Network Modeling
primary data is mostly in assumptions Discrete Event or Object
people minds or requires Rooms for uncertainties Oriented
significant resources to
gather
Knowledge Rich or Knowledge Poor
Are the models will be used for knowledge building?
Knowledge Poor Black Box Models

The model is developed Only modelers and God Mathematical Models
without focusing on understand the models Risk Models
knowledge transfer for Structure is invisible or hard to Discrete Event Models
other people see
Proprietary Closed Models
Developing Process is closed
Knowledge Rich White Box Models

The model is developed by The structure is open, can be
Participatory Modeling
acknowledging that it must understandable
Systems Dynamics
be developed as accessible The modeling process is open
Financial Models
as possible for people to Open source Models
learn about it
Scenario Development Topology
• Creating Simulations based on Scenario
Scenario Characteristics
Scenario Goals: exploration or decision support
Norms Inclusion: descriptive vs normative, Vantage point: forecasting vs backcasting, Subject: issue-based | area-
based | institution-based, Time scale: long term vs short term, Spatial scale: global/supranational vs
national/local;
Process design: intuitive vs formal
Data : qualitative vs quantitative, Data collection: participatory vs desk research, Resources: extensive vs limited,
Institutional conditions: open vs constrained
Scenario: Simple or Complex
Temporal nature: clean vs snapshot, Variables: heterogenous vs homogenous, Dynamics: peripheral vs trend,
Level of deviation: alternative vs conventional
Scenario Approach Scenario Goal/Usage
• Forecasting | Backcasting • Predictive: Forecasts | What If

• Qualitative | Quantitative • Explorative: External | Strategic
• Baseline | Policy • Normative: Preserving | Transforming
• Dimensions of Uncertainties
• Modeling
41
Agenda

There 3 primary used of modeling and simulation
Research, Application of Systems Analysis and Serious Simulation Games for Learning
Using Games as
a Medium of Learning
1 2 3 Serious Things
Applied Serious
Research System Simulation Meaning
Analysis Games
Play Reality
Simulation Optimisation Serious Simulation

(What if….) (What is the best…) Games:
Increasing the
effectiveness of
Financial Modeling, Heuristic,
knowledge transfer
Risk Modeling, Meta-Heuristics (Genetic Algorithm, Tabu
and learning through
Flow Based Modeling, Search, Simulated Annealing, Ant Colony, etc),
playing serious games
Object Oriented Modeling, Stochastic Models
that mimic the real
Agent Based Modeling,
world challenges
System Dynamics
We will focus on 4 Application of Case
• Ports and Logistics
• Lean and Green

Operations
• Clean and Renewable

Energy
• Industrial
Sustainability
Multi Methods Modeling Approaches
• The use of not just one approach and methods of modeling but multiple methods
Sequential Synchronize
• The output of one model defines the • The output of one models as an input for
scope and process of the part or the the other models, then vice versa
whole other models
• Limitations between models’ approach,
• The output can be input data, such as time difference, space difference
relationships values, verification and can be challenging
validation guidance and etc.
Agenda

• Port Stacking Model: Object Oriented Modeling and Optimization
• Jakarta Sustainability Model: Mathematical Modeling and Systems Dynamics
• MRT Jakarta Models: Agent Based Modeling and Systems Dynamics
• Gas Station Location Models: System Dynamics, Spatial Models and Agent
Based Modeling
• Operation Management Game: Transfering Decision Making Process
Selected Cases: Ports and Logistics Operations
Port Systems Analysis using Object Oriented Modeling

for testing the best container stacking policy
in the export oriented container terminal in Indonesia
We use heuristic methods of

optimization to established the best
schedule based on 2 stacking strategy:
Vessel Oriented and Destination
Oriented
The schedule the visualized using

object oriented modeling to test based
on physical characteristics of all
objects (space, capacity, speed etc.)
We use optimization methods to create decision tables for stacking

methods based on 2 conditions : Based on Vessel or Based on Port.
Then simulate these rules in Object Oriented Modeling for Evaluation
Principles of Object Oriented Process Modeling
The Modeler acts as the designer and commander of the process flow
Object Characteristics
Size Size Size Size Size

Type of Cargo Type of Cargo Type of Cargo Stacking Rows Stacking Rows
Takt Time Weight Weight Weight Weight
Max Capacity Max Capacity Max Capacity
Max Capacity Speed Speed Speed
Speed Schedule Schedule
Systems Conceptualization
• Systems Diagram of Problems Problem
Owner
Category Stacking Leveling With Yard
Based on POD Departure Time Planner
External Variables
Output Indicator
Departure Arrival Reshuffle
Reshuffle
Time of Container Put the
Vessel Move to
container on
Berth
head truck
RTGC
Port of Move to
Workload
Destination Stacking
Yard
Put the Put the
container in container
Container stacking yard On Vessel Exit Time
Arrivals Containers
Stacking Strategy
Container Terminal Shipping Lines

Stacking Rules
Strategi yang digunakan dalam aktivitas penyusunan peti kemas di area stacking yard untuk
menghasilkan penyusunan peti kemas yang efektif dan efisien
Tujuan utama dari stacking rules

adalah efisiensi penggunaan
stacking yard, meminimalisir
waktu transport dan
menghindari adanya
reshuffling
- B. Borgman et al. 2009 -
50
General Rules
1 First In Last Out

Peti kemas yang datang lebih dulu kemungkinan akan
di tumpuk di bawah
2 Trade Off Ground Utilization

Semakin tinggi tumpukan peti kemas maka penggunaan
lahan akan semakin sedikit
3 Ship’s Departure Time
Peti kemas dengan keberangkatan kapal lebih dahulu
disusun pada susunan yang lebih atas
4 Container Size
Peti kemas harus disusun di atas peti kemas dengan
ukuran yang sama
5 Weight Category
Semakin berat bobot peti kemas maka harus di susun
di susunan di bawah
Reshuffling can be done based on rows, bays or tiers
Reshuffling must be conducted only to minimize stacking movement into the ship while loading
onto ships
Row Bay Tier

Nomor susunan Nomor susunan Nomor susunan
peti kemas peti kemas ke Peti kemas ke
Ke arah horizontal arah horizontal arah vertikal
melintang membujur
Stacking Strategy
Category Stacking LDT

Penyusunan peti kemas dengan Penyusunan peti kemas
Pengelompokkan menurut tujuan berdasarkan waktu keberangkatan
dari peti kemas kapal
Object Oriented Process Modeling
• The port simulation optimized with mathematical modeling
Agenda

Based Modeling
Selected Cases: Industrial Sustainability
Understanding Dynamics of Green House Gases Policy Impacts on Jakarta’s
Urban Development Using Model-Based Policy Simulator
(Best Paper Award in IEOM Bali, 2014)
Using a system dynamics model as the

engine of the policy simulator, we
evaluate the impact of various
government policy in reducing the
green house gases in Jakarta
The policy includes “brown” industry

relocation to the surrounding area
Facilitating
Markets
Tariffs Subsidies
Allocate
REDD+ and Energy Policy Alternatives
Property Rights
Tax Credits
Government
Corporations
Freeing Markets
(Legalize)
Quantity
Regulations
Price
Regulations
Matching
Grants Energy &
Resources
outside Jakarta
As Input As Constraint and Facilitation As Feedbacks State
Enterprise
OUTPUT
INPUT National Sustainability Model – Systems Dynamics Model based on T21 Sustainability Output SME
Performance Expected
Forestry
Basic External ROW
Economic
Factors government Economic Growth Agriculture
education
The impact are divided into social

(Inflation,
Exchange
Rates, etc) poverty households Problem Owner: Trade
Poverty Level
Government
health
Potential infrastructure Environment
investment CO2 Emission Reduction
Land Total Targets CER/VER
Problem Owner
impact, economic impact and

Area Industry
population
production Goals:
Biodiesel Volume Target
Fulfillment of the Science and
Grants Achieved
short-term and long- Technology
labor technology
Green Economy and
term of national bio-
Finance
Basic Social water energy Sustainability Module fuel (biodiesel) usage
environmental impact which are the 3

(Population within the REDD+
Growth Rate, land Initiatives and Green Local
etc) emissions Governments
Economy
pillars of Sustainability
Forest
Palm CPO Biodiesel Biodiesel
Land Use Plantation Producer Producer Usage
Change Stakeholders
Module Biodiesel Industry Sub-Model (Biodisel Producers, PERTAMINA,
Palm Oil Industry, Consumers, NGOs,
Donors, Carbon Market)
Cities Megatrend
Megatrends imply significant challenges for city decision makers
Megatrends Sustainable Urban Development
Globalization & Urbanization  Cities are competing globally

 Global players / trade volume increase to make their urban areas
 2030: 60% of population in cities attractive to live and to invest in
 High density living demands for new
patterns in infrastructure
Compe-
titiveness
Demographic Change
 65+ generation will nearly double Gover-
by 2030 (from 7% to 12%) nance
 Need for adequate infrastructures Environ- Quality
as well as health- and elder care ment of Life
 Challenge to balance between

Climate Change competitiveness, environment and quality
of life, and to finance infrastructure
 Cities responsible for ~80% GHG
solutions
 Need for resource efficiency
and environmental care  Achieve committed CO2 targets
“Making Cities Work – Sustainable Urban Infrastructure” — Siemens (2012)

Jakarta’s Current Challenges and Concerns
Major Forces: Growing Population, Land Use, and Climate Change
1970 1980 1990 2000
4.546.500 6.503.400 8.259.300 8.385.600
Regional Government Plan
1 2 3
Priorities
Build Good Urban Develop Resilience Promote Public-

Governance Eco-City Private Partnership
Policies
GHG Mitigation
Spatial Plans Coastal Defense Electronic Road Low Carbon
Plan
(RTRW 2030) Strategy (JCDS) Pricing (ERP) Transport (MRT, BRT)
(RAD-GRK 2030)
Conflicting Demand between Policy Targets
Regional Government Targets (in 2030):
• Sustaining 7 - 8 % economic growth per annum

• 30 % emission reduction from BAU
• 30 % green space expansion
• Is it possible to reduce emission and expand the green space without

slowing operation and economic growth ?
• Can the green space satisfy emission reduction target ?
• At what costs ?
Principles of System Dynamics Modeling
How the systems change over time
Problems are map into a timeline
Based on this behavior overtime

we construct logical causality
connections between variables
We construct structural model We change the model structure

based on these causality to get the behavior that we want
Analisa vs Analisa Sistem
Analisa Analisa Sistem

• Proses pencarian permasalahan untuk • Proses pencarian permasalahan
mencari komponen yang rusak mencakup tambahan hubungan
interaktif antar komponen disesuaikan
• Satu tingkatan, masalah dibatasi hanya
dengan tujuan dan secara endogenous
pada satu tingkatan, dalam satu cara
pandang/ perspektif, dalam jangka • Multi dimensi , Multi tingkatan/skala,
waktu saat ini atau sangat terbatas, multi aktor, dipertimbangkan multi
dalam jangka ruang yang terbatas perspektif,, baik dimensi waktu (dulu-
saat ini- akan datang), maupun
geografis (disini atau disana)
Causal-Loop Diagram of Endogenous Variables
GHG
Model Conceptualization: System’s Perspective
Diagram System of Jakarta Sustainable Urban Model
Regional Govenrmnet Policies
Exogenous Sustainable-City
Variables Indicators
Input (Endogenous) Process Output Problem Owners

Economic Development
• As mentioned earlier, emission produced will induce economic productivity. Without government
intervention, Jakarta will face economic slow down. The city has reached its carrying capacity.
90,000,000,000
131 %
“ limit of growth ”
80,000,000,000
70,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
USD
40,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
industrial production
service production
20,000,000,000 Agriculture production
real GRDP at factor cost
10,000,000,000
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Social Indicators
Stable Growth of Population and Workforce Trends
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
10,000,000
person
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000 Population
Total Workforce
Employment Level
2,000,000
unemployment
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Social Indicators
Per Capita Income – “Law of deminishing return”
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
USD
2,000
1,000
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Environmental Sustainability
Air Purification Performance
Emission Absorbed Total GHG Emission

Agenda

Based Modeling
Selected Cases: Industrial Sustainability
Analysis of Mass Rapid Transit Jakarta’s Underground Station
Interconnectivity Design using Agent Based Modeling
JAKARTA 2025
NEW URBANISM!
1. Focus development on pedestrian, stimulating new
urban lifestyle - green lifestyle
2. MRT Transit development stimulates smart urban
redevelopment, smart growth & compact city policies.
3. Urban Transit development provides substantial
space for future Jakarta city development
(redevelopment)
4. Urban Transit development reduce urban sprawl
tendency, reorienting development direction back to
the city
5. MRT Transit development provide appropriate milieu
for productive working class
6. MRT development as green transportation scheme
inspire further green development in urban space
along corridor
7. Connected bicycle path starting from early zone 2 to
end part of zone 4
8. Urban redevelopment & MRT development will
improve Jakarta image, increase national pride, and
became truly respected world city within Asia Pacific
region.
Using Stations as Primary
City Development Neighborhood
Framework
Other Mass rapid transport
Commercials
TOD ASPECT RELATED TO

MRT
1.Core station structure
Public Facilities
2.Site utility system-integrated
Other Facilities
Bicycle paths
utility system (energy-water-air STRU
system) Structure Structure
StructureStructure
CTUR
E
3.Site management system
4.Macro to micro climate (outdoor

to indoor environment quality)
5.Passenger to Pedestrian volume
6.Passenger to Pedestrian flow

Residentials
7.Transport inter-modal scheme
Public On street transport
8.Integrated Security system
9.Integrated commercial facilities
Iwan Prijanto - MRTJ © 2009 Road System 70

Iwan Prijanto - MRTJ © 2009
So there is an opportunity to get into the
Highest TOD
LEVEL TOD 3-4

SUSTAINABLE NEIGHBORHOOD LEVEL TOD 5-6
SUSTAINABLE GROWTH DISTRICT
Re-master plan the city districts to enable sustainable
growth, create a vibrant & sustainable neighborhood
Stimulating growth by providing convenient public realm,

commercial facilities and Increasing its commercial & social
capacities
LEVEL TOD 1-2

SEAMLESS MOBILITY
Enable connectivity, safe entry & passenger distribution,

NO TOD, LEVEL - 0 customer segment harmony
UNSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Just focus & worry on construction. Situation to be avoided!! Iwan Prijanto - MRTJ © 2009
A district growth achievable by the nature of MRT and BRT (more stops
with closer proximity)
Density Gradient Vary by Type of Transit (Robert Cervero )
Iwan Prijanto - MRTJ © 2009

72
Passenger comforts means more passenger
flows, which means more NFB business
attractiveness
73
Perubahan Model Bisnis MRT
• Non-fare Box
PSO (Public
Tiket Service
Obligation)
Reklame
Pendapatan
MRT
Penyewaan
Ruang
Non – Tiket
Museum
Pengelolaan
Ruang
TOD could create 3 Bottom Lines Values for the City
(Robert Cervero)
Improving environmental
sustainability Improving social
life quality
increased
urban
mobility
Stimulates further
economic growth
Iwan Prijanto - MRTJ © 2009 75
TOD Opportunity + Challenge = Complexity
Some Key Questions …
What rights the city What is the best mix-used

must decentralized development composition
How to to the company? to maximize revenue and
write the economic contributions?
cost of
multi-billion How to justify the
dollars subsidy for MRT? What would be the Does better
asset? minimum service surrounding
level of MRT? connection could
What is the business attract private
How to exploit
models of MRT vehicles to move?
and maintain
the Jakarta to sustained
its operations? Should the urban rail
underground
transport standards
structures?
different that current
intercity standards?
Is other city services ready to support
MRT, especially the emergency
services? (Fire Department, Health
Outbreak, etc)
Each Questions is Linked to Other Questions!

76
Principles of Agent Based Modeling
Difference between Process Modeling and Agent Based Modeling
The modeler construct agents

with logics of feedbacks and
action, characteristics variations
and environmental boundaries
The agents than put in the

environment and “let
loose”
The emergence results is

then analyzed for better
decision making
Model views 1st floor concourse floor (paid and non paid)
78
Illustration of Simplified Pedestrian Area Movement Alternatives
Outside Tentacle Free Ticket Fare Box Paid Platform MRT

Concourse Purchase Check Concourse Floor Trains
79
Examples of Results
2017 Passenger Projection Scenario 1
80
Examples of Results
2037 Passenger Projection with Skenario 4
81
Focus zones Passenger movement from concourse and platform floor (in 2037
Passenger Projection
with Skenario 4 )
82
Studi Kasus Pada Stasiun Setiabudi
Terdapat Zona yang bisa dikomersialisasikan
Pengembangan Model Dasar
Menggunakan Data Asumsi Dasar MRT Jakarta
Model dibangun sesuai data yang sudah didapat sehingga kita

bisa melihat dampak dari area komersial terhadap aliran
penumpang.
Simulasi Kondisi Extreme
Model Dasar
Penggeseran Pintu
Offset Persimpangan
Simulasi Kondisi Ekstrim
Pelebaran Jalan
Pembatas Jalan
Kombinasi Alternatif
Future Research: Systems Diagram of MRT Jakarta TOD Complexity that could
be supported by multi-method modeling
Advocating Macro Level Initatives Micro Level Strategy (MRT Jakarta)

Transit Oriented
Low-Carbon Blue-Sky Price Development Construction and Operational
Economy Clean Air Regulations Station Design Design
Strategy
Quantity Concession
Subsidy NFB Pricing Line Expansion
Regulations Agreement
As Local Governments
As Input As Constraint and Facilitation Feedbacks as Shareholders
Output Problem Owner:

Input Multi-Methods Modeling Support Operational
Shareholders of
Sustainability
Mass Rapid Transit
Jakarta Local
Basic External Special
Policies for Revenue Economic Growth Parliament
Economic Infrastructure Events
Generation and Contribution
Factors Cost Station
(Inflation, Urban Life Economic Growth Justification Crowd Transportation
Problem Owner Goals:
Exchange Quality Behavior Social Mobility Sustainable Operations
Rates, etc) Improvement Increasing Quality Ministry of
with the fulfillment of the
of Life Finance
short-term and long-term
System Dynamics Agent Based corporations’ target by JICA (previously
Land Financial Modeling
Availability for Modeling Modeling CO2 Emission serving government JBIC)
Expansions Reduction from assignments of Public
Concession Emergency Response Services in urban rail-based
reduction of NGOs
Agreement Analysis Simulation mass transportation
private vehicles
Loan usage Coordinating
Projection of CO2 Pedestrian Economy
Emission Reduction Movement Quality MRT Jakarta
Basic Social Sustainable Operational Trade
(Population Operations Sustainability
Growth Rate,
Variable of Fixed Environment
etc) NFB Prices Optimization Model Ticket Prices
Stakeholders
87
Agenda

Based Modeling
Selected Cases: Clean and Renewable Energy
Understanding Gas Transition Challenges from Fuel for passenger Car in
Indonesia using a combination of Agent Based Modeling, GIS-Based
Spatial Modeling and Systems Dynamics in (Case Study of Jakarta)
We are using Systems

Dynamics Model of Bass
Diffusion to simulate the
“individual” decision making
to switch from fuel to gas.
The other 2 Factors in the

decision making: Distance
and Other People Adoption
Influence are modeled in GIS
Spatial Modeling and Agent
Based Modeling.
We can predict the effect of

changing the location of gas
stations (SPBG) or the
budget for promoting gas-
switch to the “influencer”
System’s Model Conceptualization
Pilihan Kebijakan Perubahan Kondisi Wilayah dan Faktor Sosiodemografi Stakeholder

Tingkat konversi dari Pemerintah
mobil pribadi ke NGV Indonesia
Variabel Tujuan
Eksternal
Proyeksi Jumlah Kendaraan Berbahan Bakar Gas (NGV) di Setiap Perkiraan
Faktor Wilayah di DKI Jakarta potensi pasar
ekonomi NGV di DKI
(inflasi, Jakarta
nilai tukar
matauang)
Kondisi Indikator
infrastruk- Keluaran
tur jalan
Proyeksi
jumlah
Suplai BBM
mobil
dan BBG
Shifting Proyeksi
moda jumlah NGV
transportas
Pola pergerakan kendaraan menjadi penting dalam penentuan lokasi SPBG
dan SPBU
• Pergerakan ini disusun dalam suatu model Sistem Dinamis antar Area berdasarkan
Pengembangan Model Spasial
PEMBUATAN MODEL
(1) Input peta DKI Jakarta (2) Pembuatan layer jalan dengan path
network dan node point lokasi asal-tujuan
Pengembangan Model Spasial
PEMBUATAN MODEL
(3) Pendefinisian proses (4) Penambahan grafik indikator
0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Inf.
Unit: ribu mobil
Data:
• Jumlah mobil sebagai agent
• Daerah asal
• Daerah tujuan
• Durasi
• Waktu keberangkatan
Hasil Simulasi Model Spasial
Hasil simulasi model spasial berupa visualisasi perjalanan pengguna mobil pribadi
yang masuk dan keluar wilayah DKI Jakarta
HASIL SIMULASI PERGERAKAN MOBIL DKI JAKARTA
• Pergerakan kendaraan di DKI Jakarta

berasal dari pergerakan kendaraan
yang keluar dan masuk wilayah
Jakarta dan Bodetabek
• Pergerakan mobil cenderung

mengarah ke daerah pusat DKI
Jakarta
• Jumlah mobil, waktu keberangkatan,

daerah asal, dan daerah tujuan
perjalanan setiap individu
mempengaruhi besarnya volume
kendaraan yang ada pada saat
tertentu
Dari pergerakan kendaraan disusunlah optimasi peletakan SPBU
dari model Spatial Kendaraan
• Terdapat 5 feature classes dalam feature dataset yang digunakan sebagai input model
1 2 3
Feature Class SPBG_Beroperasi Feature Class SPBU_COCO Feature Class SPBU_CODO_DODO

(7 lokasi) (25 lokasi) (114 lokasi)
4 5
Feature Class Titik_Permintaan Feature Class Jalan_Jakarta

(260 lokasi) (>60.000 ruas jalan)
95
Terdapat 139 kandidat fasilitas SPBG baru untuk dapat
memenuhi 260 titik permintaan
Candidate Facilities
• SPBU COCO
• SPBU CODO-DODO
Required Facility
• SPBG Beroperasi
Located Demand Points

• Titik Permintaan
Chosen Facilities
• SPBG Baru Terpilih
96
Dalam maximize coverage, fasilitas ditempatkan sehingga sebanyak mungkin
titik permintaan dapat dialokasikan dengan memperhatikan impedance
cutoff
Tipe Permasalahan Fasilitas yang Akan Dipilih Batas Impedansi

(Problem Type) (Facilities to Choose) (Impedance Cutoff)
• Jenis masalah pada analisa • Menentukan jumlah • Jarak/waktu maksimum dari
location-allocation fasilitas yang harus dicari fasilitas ke titik permintaan
• Maximize Coverage • 32 (skenario 1 dan 2) • 4 km (skenario 1 dan 3)
• 78 (skenario 3 dan 4) • 7 km (skenario 2 dan 4)
Proses pembuatan keputusan dalam maximize coverage :
97
Jangkauan SPBG Saat Ini di DKI Jakarta
“Saat ini, hanya terdapat 7

SPBG di DKI Jakarta dengan
masing-masing kapasitas
1.000.000 lsp/bulan.
SPBG tersebut hanya dapat
menjangkau sekitar 20%
wilayah di DKI Jakarta”
98
Lebih sedikit titik permintaan yang dapat terpenuhi jika faktor kemacetan
dipertimbangkan
Skenario Pertama Tahun Kedua Skenario Kedua Tahun Kedua
• Jumlah SPBG : 32 • Jumlah SPBG : 32

• Demand Terpenuhi : 206/260 • Demand Terpenuhi : 243/260
• Masih terpusat pada beberapa SPBG saja, namun • Masih terpusat pada SPBG di Jakarta Pusat dan
beban beberapa SPBG berkurang Utara, namun beban beberapa SPBG berkurang
99
Dengan memasukan SPBU CODO dan SPBU DODO pada kandidat fasilitas,
lebih banyak titik permintaan yang dapat terpenuhi
Skenario Ketiga Tahun Kelima Skenario Keempat Tahun Kelima
• Jumlah SPBG : 78 • Jumlah SPBG : 78

• Demand Terpenuhi : 254/260 • Demand Terpenuhi : 260/260
• Titik permintaan yang tidak terpenuhi disebabkan • Semua titik permintaan sudah terpenuhi secara
jarak impedance cutoff > 4 km merata (tidak terpusat di 1 SPBG saja)
100
Kesimpulan
1 2
Tanpa mempertimbangkan kemacetan Mempertimbangkan kemacetan

• Wilayah cakupan lebih dari 90% • Wilayah cakupan sekitar 75 %
• Semua titik permintaan terpenuhi • Baru 96% titik permintaan terpenuhi
• Tidak diperlukan pembangunan SPBG baru • Perlunya pembangunan SPBG baru di Jakarta
lainnya Utara, Jakarta Timur, dan Jakarta Barat
101
Agen yang telah memiliki atribut akan mengambil keputusan sesuai dengan
logika yang didefinisikan…
Consumer conversion progress statechart
Agen menggunakan kendaraan berbahan bakar minyak dan belum mengetahui

mengenai opsi melakukan konversi ke bahan bakar gas
Agen menggunakan kendaraan berbahan bakar minyak dan belum mengetahui

mengenai opsi melakukan konversi ke bahan bakar gas
Agen telah menerima konsep konversi dari bahan bakar minyak ke bahan bakar
gas namun belum melakukan instalasi
Agen mengambil keputusan untuk melakukan konversi dan instalasi converter kit
pada kendaraannya
Agen telah menggunakan kendaraan berbahan bakar gas

Agen yang telah memiliki atribut akan mengambil keputusan sesuai dengan
logika yang didefinisikan…
Consumer conversion progress statechart
Dipengaruhi oleh rekomendasi dari pengguna kendaraan berbahan bakar gas

kepada lingkungan sekitarnya
Internalisasi konsep konversi bahan bakar minyak ke gas pada agen yang
dipengaruhi oleh efektivitas rekomendasi
Agen memberikan rekomendasi kepada lingkungannya untuk melakukan konversi
Dipengaruhi oleh pertimbangan internal yang terkait pada tingkat keatraktifan

bahan bakar gas dan willingness to pay untuk membeli converter kit
Agen memberikan rekomendasi kepada lingkungannya untuk melakukan konversi
Instalasi converter kit pada kendaraan agen yang membutuhkan waktu dimana
kendaraan tidak bias digunakan
Berdasarkan pergerakan dan pemilihan pola spatial SPBG dilihatlah apakah
proses konversi dapat berjalan dengan baik
• Dengan mempertimbangkan keputusan dari Agent
Agenda

Based Modeling
Selected Cases: Lean and Green Operations
Understanding the basic concepts of Operations Management

using highly Customizable Table-Top Game (OMG! Game)
(Book Publication in Amazon and Game Copyrights)
Production Station M1 OMG! Game:
B1 M1 B2 M2
• Table-Top Board Game to maintain the
P
physical attractiveness of the game
B3 M3 B4 A B5 S
Upgrades Cards Available:
• Must be Customizable to cater different
INITIAL CONDITIONS: · “Cost Saver” will reduce the Machining Cost/
· Machining Cost : $10/turn
· Inventory Capacity*: 10A & 10B
Turn
· “Capacity+” will increase permanently the
Production Capacity after the next turn
organizations operational challenges
· Breakdown condition: the final production
capacity reduced half for 4 turns in a row
· Change Over Cost: 1/3 from Machine Capacity
· “Maintenance+” will permanently reduce the
time elapsed of each breakdown after the next
turn
• Easy to Duplicates within the
· “Change Over” will permanently reduce the
*each over-inventory
will add cost $5/part
change over cost after the next turn
· “Forecast” will give your group inside
information about Dice No. in the station
Organizations
Info Card 1
• Competition between Teams as extra
motivation
MAINTENANCE+ CHANGE OVER+ CAPACITY+ COST SAVER FORECAST
FORECAST
Breakdown Time Cost Reduce to Add +1 parts/type from Machining Cost $7 Average Dice Values of
Reduce to 3 Turns 3/4 Dice Value initial capacity Station
Card Price Card Price Card Price Card Price Card Price
$1000 $1000 $1000 $25 $1000
Level
MAINTENANCE+
1 Level
CHANGE OVER+
1 Level
CAPACITY+
1 Level
COST SAVER
1 FORECAST
Level 1
Breakdown Time Add +2 parts/type from initial Machining Cost $4 Histogram of Station Dice
No Change over Cost
Reduce to 2 Turns capacity Values
$2000 $2000 $2000 $50 $2000

Level 2 Level 2 Level 2 Level 2 Level 2
APICS CPIM Certification Modules
How the game and card upgrades represents APICS 5 CPIM Certification Modules
SMR
(strategic management
of resources)
Lean Operations : Producing More with Less Waste (cost) based on Demand
Produce with LESS cost

Profit
ECO
More Products Produced

Maintena
(execution and control of nce+
operations)
Revenue
Change
Over+
DSP
Cost
(detailed scheduling and
planning) Capacity+ Cost
Saver+
MPR Money
Material Flows (master planning of Flows
More “Right” Products Produced
resources)
Information Forecast
Flows
BSCM
(basics of supply chain
management)
OMG is simulation a simple production chain of goods
• There are 4 types of Products as Combination of 2 Parts from 4 Different Parts
• The Production Chain Consists of Purchaser (P), Machines of production (M), Assembler
(A) and Sales (S).
• All Stations (except Purchaser) has a limited buffer inventory before processing
• Parts A and B will be

produced by M1 and
M2 Stations
• Parts C and D will be

produced by M3
Station only
• The name of the final products is the 2 Parts combination of the Parts
OMG mimic real life situations in production chains
• Uncertainties, Upgrades
Real Life Situations and Challenges Translated in OMG!

• Machine Breakdown and Capacity • Dice Rolls (or Virtual Dice Rolls with
Uncertainties Variations Spreadsheets) will limit maximum
production capacity of the
production and assembly
• Changing production parts will • Changeover Cost by reducing the
consume time (to change dies and production capacity
setup machines for new parts’ type)
• You can invest for better machines, • Upgrade Cards

Continuous
better maintenance, better forecasting
Improvement
through
Upgrades
The Game Components of OMG
• Material Flows
• A tablemat board for each Player
• is the representation of a production zone and is used as the base area for information cards,
upgrade cards, parts as inventory or in transit..
Upgrade Card Box 1 Upgrade Card Box 2 Upgrade Card Box 3 Upgrade Card Box 4
• Information Card Area – located at the center of the mat.
The Information Cards that can be placed here are the primary
source of information for the players. It can hold the material flow,
upgrades table, cost details and any other information the players
Receiving Receiving
must have to play the game.
Buffers
• Upgrade Cards Area – located at the top of the mat, with

Buffers
four allocated areas. Holds all Upgrades Cards purchased for a

station. Each box should contain one type of Upgrade Card. Upgrade
Box Place for Box Place for Cards of the same type with different levels should be stacked.
Information Card 1 Information Card 2
• Parts-in-Process Area – located at the bottom of the mat,
with the number of areas depending on the number of parts. The
colors of the boxes correspond to the colors of the parts (pieces of
A
parts
B
parts
C
parts
D
parts
paper, printed stickers or paperclips)
• Receiving Buffer Area – located at the corners of the mat.
This area accommodates material inflow from the left or right,
For Sales For Sales For Sales For Sales
Station: Station: Station: Station:
ANCOL ANDAL BOSCHA BADA
depending on the table configuration. This is an optional area,

although it is recommended as a visual sign to keep track of incoming
buffer stock.
The Game Components of OMG (2)
Material Flows
• Information Card
• The cards contain basic information about each station’s role and standard conditions,
available upgrade cards and its impacts (in table), rules for that stations and interpretation
table for dice roles and other interpretation table
Production Station M1 Production Station M1 Table 1 Dice Translations
Dice #
Machine
Capacity
· Your station are producing parts A and parts B, then 1 1
B1 M1 B2 M2 send them to the next station’s (M2) receiving buffers

as many as the dice number (Table 1).
2
3
2
3
4 4
· For every turn you can send ONLY 1 type of items 5 5
P (either A or B). 6 6
· If the item you sent to the next station differs from
Table 2 Upgrade-Cards Value Table
the one you sent before, you will get a change over
B3 M3 B4 A B5 S cost (represented by reduction of production capacity Level
Cost Saver Capacity+ Maintenance+
at that turn) $ price pcs price pcs price
· You can only send parts from your current inventory, 0 10 - Table - Table -
Upgrades Cards Available:
INITIAL CONDITIONS: · “Cost Saver” will reduce the Machining Cost/ not from the receiving buffers. After you sent the 1 7 25 +1 1000 +1 1000
· Machining Cost : $10/turn Turn parts, you can move parts from the receiving buffer 2 4 50 +2 2000 +2 2000
· Inventory Capacity*: 10A & 10B · “Capacity+” will increase permanently the into your inventory (based on type) and empty the 3 1 75 +3 3000 +3 3000
· Breakdown condition: the final production Production Capacity after the next turn receiving buffers. Change Over+ Forecast
· “Maintenance+” will permanently reduce the
capacity reduced half for 4 turns in a row · Your Station could buy available upgrade cards listed Level
cap price info price
time elapsed of each breakdown after the next
· Change Over Cost: 1/3 from Machine Capacity turn in Table 2 0 2/3 0 0 0
M1 M1
1 3/4 1000 Average 1000
change over cost after the next turn 2 2000 2000
*each over-inventory · “Forecast” will give your group inside
Table Histogram
3 Trend 3000
will add cost $5/part information about Dice No. in the station
- Fraction always round up (0.05 = 1)
Info Card 1 Info Card 2
Assembly Table 1 Dice Translations
Dice #
Machine
Capacity
Purchasing Table 1 Dice Translations Sales
· Your station are assembling all the available parts into 1 1 Dice # Real #
the final branded product, then send them to the sales 2 2 · Your Station is responsible for purchasing parts of 1 3
A,B, C, and D, then send them to the corresponding
station’s (S) receiving buffers as many as the dice
number listed in Table 1 (in total not per brands).
3
4
5
3
4
5
station (to the receiving buffers) for each type:
2
3
3
3
B1 M1 B2 M2
· You can only assemble parts from your current Parts A or B sent to Buffer M1, 4 4
6 6
Parts C or D sent to Buffer M3.
inventory, not from the receiving buffers. After you sent
the products, you can move parts from the receiving Table 2 Upgrade-Cards Value Table
5
6
4
4 P
buffer into your inventory (based on type) and empty Cost Saver Capacity+ Maintenance+ · The number sent is based on Table 1 for next station
the receiving buffers.
Level
$ price pcs price pcs price
receiving buffer. You have 2 downstream lines (M1
and M3), and for each line you can only send 1 type
B3 M3 B4 A B5 S
· Your Station could buy upgrade cards listed in Table 2 0 10 - Table - Table -
1 7 25 +1 1000 +1 1000
of parts for each corresponding line receiving buffer.
2 4 50 +2 2000 +2 2000
(eg. If you have Dice 1, then you can send 3A to M1
3 1 75 +3 3000 +3 3000
and send 3D to M3, or 3B to M1 and 3C to M3)
Change Over+ Forecast
Level Product Price: Unmet Demand (Backlog) Cost:
cap price info price
Table 3 Assembling ID Table $100 @ ANCOL $100 @ ANCOL
0 2/3 0 0 0
$100 @ ANDAL $100 @ ANDAL
A P S
Parts Brand Parts Brand
1 3/4 1000 Average 1000
A+C ANCOL B+C BOSCHA
$200 @ BOSCHA $200 @ BOSCHA
2 Table 2000 Histogram 2000
A+D ANDAL B+D BADA
$200 @ BADA $200 @ BADA
3 Trend 3000
Inventory Capacity*: 10 ANCOL, 10 ANDAL, 10 BOSCHA, 10 BADA
Info Card 2 Info Card 2 *each over-inventory will add cost $50/product Info Card 1
Material Flows Uncertainties
• Dice Translation
• In case of single-team play, a physical dice is used at each station to represent the
randomness distribution that exists in any production process and influences machine
capacity.
• Dice Translations can be seen in the tables with 2 possible combination of translation
• In groups, spreadsheet of randomized demand can be presented to all the groups
Machine Dice Number Machine Capacity

Dice Number Capacity 1&2 2
1 1 3&4 4
2 2 5&6 5
3 3 5 5
4 4
5 5
6 6
Material Flows
• The default of production material is a combination of small squares colored paper

with printed stickers.
• However, this could be changed into 4 different shapes of paper clip or its colors
Parts A Parts B
C
D
C Parts C
D Parts D
A A
Parts C Parts D
Information Flows
• Upgrade Cards strategies that teams can choose to improve their operations.
COST SAVER MAINTENANCE+ CHANGE OVER+ CAPACITY+ FORECAST

Breakdown Time Add +1 parts/type from
Machining Cost $4 No Change over Cost Trend of Station Dice
Reduce to 2 Turns initial capacity Values
$50 $2000 $2000 $1000 $3000

• Most upgrade cards are location/roles specific, and may not be available in some
stations
• However, forecasting is considered a whole production chain upgrades
• Cards has levels, the higher the levels, more benefits gained, and cost more.
Remember you must pick the right upgrades, at the right stations, at the right time
with the right cost that could total highest benefits to the whole chain.
Information Flows COST SAVER MAINTENANCE+

Breakdown Time
CHANGE OVER+ CAPACITY+
Add +1 parts/type from
FORECAST
Machining Cost $4 No Change over Cost Trend of Station Dice
Reduce to 2 Turns initial capacity Values
$50 $2000 $2000 $1000 $3000

• Cost saver: This card reduces the machining cost in the production and
assembly stations for each production cycle. The upgrades are final and not
time-limited. You can define how much the reduction costs are in absolute
costs or relative to the original costs. The higher the level of the upgrade
card, the lower the machining costs.
• Capacity+: This card increases the maximum production capacity in the
production and assembly stations for each production cycle. The upgrades
are final and not time-limited. You can define how many parts can be
produced at different levels in absolute parts or relative to the original The modified
amount of parts. The higher the level of the upgrade card, the higher the valued can be
increase of production capacity.
found on the
• Maintenance+: This card reduces the amount of turns that are impacted by information
a breakdown. The upgrades are final and not time-limited. You can define
how many turns are impacted when a breakdown occurs. The higher the card of each
level of the Upgrade Card, the lower the number of turns that are impacted station
by breakdown.
• Change Over+: This card reduces the changeover penalty. Level 1 reduces
the penalty to ¾ of the dice number, whereas level 2 will get rid of the
changeover penalty altogether.
• Forecast*: This card contains the information corresponding to the dice
number for one station for the whole game. Level 1 gives the average
amount, level 2 gives a histogram for the dice number (1-6) frequency; level
3 gives the dice number trend for the whole game.
Information Flow
• Recording Forms
• Forms for Calculating Cost and Revenue
• Material costs: expenses from buying raw
Purchasing Station material from suppliers or vendors. The
Group Name: Machine Form
material costs are calculated by
Table Dice Calculation
Dice # 1/2 2/3 3/4
Group Name: 1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
3 2 2 3
Station: Initial Cost:

multiplying the material quantity with the
4 2 3 3
5 3 4 4
6 3 4 5
I* = Initial Inventory
Product
CO Cost at Breakdo
unit price.
Capacity Sequence Parts: Parts: Current Cost
Level wn turns Final
Plan Breakdown
Turn Cap+ Effect CO Effects Production
Effects
CO+ Maint+ Capacity prod recv prod recv
Dice# Cap+ Upg I* = I* = Cost+ Upg
Upgrades Upg (-) (+) (-) (+)
Turn Dice No.

A
Parts Purchase
B C D
1
2
1
A
2
B
Cost
3 = (1+2)
C
4
D
5
Machine Form
Cost
6 = (3*5) 7 9 10 = (6*9) 11. Inventory Movements
Table Dice Calculation

12
• Machining costs: expenses from running
the machine when it works. The
Dice # 1/2 2/3 3/4
1 1
Group Name:
1
2
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
3 2 2 3
3 4 2 3 3
Sales Station 4
Station: 5 3 4 4 Initial Cost:
1
Group Name:
5
6
7 CO
6 3 4
I* = Initial Inventory
5
machining costs are incurred at each

2 8 Cost Breakdow Final Current
production station and assembly stations.

Capacity Product Sequence Plan Breakdo Parts: Parts: Parts: Parts:
9
3
Cap+ at n turns Producti Cost
Turn CO Effects wn
10 Effect Level on
Effects
4 11 Dice Cap+
# Upg
CO+
Upgra
Maint+
Upg
Capacity
I*
prod recv
(-) (+)
= I*
prod recv
(-) (+)
= I*
prod recv
(-) (+)
= I*
prod recv
(-) (+)
= Cost+ Upg
12
5 4 Input from 5
The Initial machining cost is 10$ per parts

13 3 = des 10 =
14 Dic 1 2 ( 1+2 )
6 = ( 3 *5 ) 7 9 ( 6 *9 )
11. Inventory Movements 12
6 15
e $$$ 1Backlog Total
previous station
7 Initial Inventory (1)
16
Delivered (2) 2
(3) End Inventory (1-2+3)
•
Turn De Sold Cost Income
Over-inventory costs: expenses from each
17
8 18
man (a) 1 (b) (a)-(b)
AC AD BC 19 BD AC AD BC BD AC AD BC BD AC AD BC BD
9 20 d
2
3
10
11
12
1
2
4
5
6
part or product that is over the inventory
7
13
14
1
8
9
10
capacity limit.
2
15
•
11
16
17
3
4
12
13
14
Backlog costs: expenses from unfulfilled
orders at the Sales Station.
15
18 5 16
19 6 17
18
20 7 19
20
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Combining the Game Elements
The complete picture of the game
Upgrade Card Box 1 Upgrade Card Box 2 Upgrade Card Box 3 Upgrade Card Box 4
C CHANGE OVER+
FORECAST
COST SAVER Histogram of Station Dice
No Change over Cost Values
C Machining Cost $1
Card Price Card Price

Card Price
D
$2000 $2000
D $75
Receiving
D
Level 2 Level 3 Level 2 Receiving
Buffers Buffers
Assembly Assembly Table 1 Dice Translations
Dice #
Machine
Capacity
· Your station are assembling all the available parts into 1 1
B1 M1 B2 M2 the final branded product, then send them to the sales 2
3
2
3
station’s (S) receiving buffers as many as the dice
4 4
number listed in Table 1 (in total not per brands).
P · You can only assemble parts from your current
5
6
5
6
inventory, not from the receiving buffers. After you sent
B3 M3 B4 A B5 S the products, you can move parts from the receiving
buffer into your inventory (based on type) and empty
Table 2 Upgrade-Cards Value Table
Capacity+
Box Place for Box Place for Level
Cost Saver Maintenance+
the receiving buffers. $ price pcs price pcs price
INITIAL CONDITIONS:
Information Card 1 Upgrades Cards Available:
· “Cost Saver” will reduce the Machining Cost/
Information Card 2
· Your Station could buy upgrade cards listed in Table 2 0
1
10
7
-
25
Table
+1
-
1000
Table
+1 1000
-
· Machining Cost : $10/turn Turn 2 4 50 +2 2000 +2 2000
· Inventory Capacity*: 10A, 10B, 10C, & 10D · “Capacity+” will increase permanently the 3 1 75 +3 3000 +3 3000
· Breakdown condition: the final production Production Capacity after the next turn
Change Over+ Forecast
· “Maintenance+” will permanently reduce the Level
capacity reduced half for 4 turns in a row time elapsed of each breakdown after the next cap price info price
· No Change Over Cost turn
Table 3 Assembling ID Table
0 2/3 0 0 0
A A
Parts Brand Parts Brand
1 3/4 1000 Average 1000
change over cost after the next turn A+C ANCOL B+C BOSCHA
*each over inventory · “Forecast” will give your group inside
2 Table 2000 Histogram 2000
will cost $5/part A+D ANDAL B+D BADA 3 Trend 3000

information about Dice No. in the station
Info Card 1 Info Card 2
A B C D
parts parts
parts C parts
D
C C D
For Sales For Sales For Sales For Sales
Station: Station: Station: Station:
ANCOL ANDAL BOSCHA BADA
Game Play Rules
General Rules
• One person is responsible for one station. However, it is also possible that two or
more people are responsible for one station.
• In order to have a smoother production flow, each player or team is given a certain
amount of initial inventory at the start of the game (usually 20). The initial inventory
can be final products or parts. This is the first tactical decision the players should
make.
• We use cycles and turns. One cycle indicates the time needed to fulfill the production
plan. The production plan consists of what to buy, and what to produce at what
stations. One cycle contains several turns (e.g. 1 cycle = 4 turns). During turns in one
cycle, the players cannot change their production plan. Players can change the plan
between cycles. Remember that there are changeover costs and other costs to
consider.
• Investments on Upgrade Cards are available when a player has sufficient money on
hand. Upgrades can only be purchased between cycles.
• The company would like to maintain all products availability, so you should have all
parts to make all products available for assembly.
M1 M2
A B C D
P
M3 A S
Raw
Materials
M1 M2
A B C D
P
M3 A S
OMG Ilustrations
Thank You and Visit us at
systems.ie.ui.ac.id
SEMS Lab is responsible to develop knowledge and skill
in model thinking and system thinking for IEUI graduates,
through education, research and advocacy,
by the use of multi-modeling approaches and technology,
in order to design and deliver a better engineered system.

Decisions Modeling For Reducing Uncertainties and Risks

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Decisions Modeling For Reducing Uncertainties and Risks

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Dukungan Multi-metode Pemodelan dan Simulasi

dalam Proses Pengambilan Keputusan untuk

Akhmad Hidayatno Ruang L301-302

• Ketidakpastian dan Resiko dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

Because we will never have a “perfect” information

• Information in the Decision Making • There will not enough information

Ideal Amount Thinking is to compensate

• Situation where the current state of • A probability or threat of damage,

Property, Net income, Liability, Fire, Accidents/incidents, Equipment

Treat Risk Evaluate Risk

risk management Risk Selected

Consider Feasibility Costs and Benefits

Reduced Reduced Transfer in

• Ketidakpastian dan Resiko dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

Scenario is set and sequence of changes to the

Modeling is Process of Developing a

we never actually solve real Data

Because human has very Pengetahuan

• Lets say you are walking outdoors and see a

Wow .. You are an artist Okay .. You took a sketch course

can take client

policy measures defines

external also define

“actors” those who can act upon

Key factors have impact on

can take client

policy measures defines

external also define

• In Modeling the awareness of reductionism in problems definitions

• Ketidakpastian dan Resiko dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

Problem descriptors Model typology

Time horizon from responsible authority Strategic-operational

Modeling Tools, Methology and Approach

Risk Modeling Discrete-Event Financial Modelling Expert systems

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Long Term Perspective Strategic Models

Short Term Perspective Operational Models

What do you Predict?

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Direction Focus Semi-Qualitative Models

Degree Focus Quantitative Models

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Intermittent Discrete Event Models

On Going Continuous Models

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

No Inherent Memory Static Models

Inherent Memory Dynamic Models

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Spatial Focus Spatial Models

Temporal Focus Dynamic Models

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Why Deterministic Models

•Bank Loan •Interest Expenses

•Production Rate Revenue

• Interest Payment Account Payables

•Production Rate Revenue P&L

Predictive Modeling Exploratory Modeling

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Data Rich Data Rich Models

Data Poor Data Poor Models

Key Characteristics Models Modeling Methods

Knowledge Poor Black Box Models

Knowledge Rich White Box Models