1.

Epidemiological Forecasting:
a. Forecasting is an early warning system that allows the general public to be prepared of
an impending epidemic. It attempts to predict when and where a disease outbreak will
occur. Dengue is a seasonal epidemic, with transmission peaking during rainy seasons,
therefore a pattern can be studied from past data. Data is collected for at least 3 years
to study the pattern of disease and then graphed. Forecasting may not prevent an
epidemic, but it will help control its severity and spread.
b. Information needed to forecast an epidemic:
i. Study of incidence and prevalence rate within a given population.
ii. Disease specific morbidity and mortality rate
iii. Age and Sex wise morbidity and mortality rates.

2. Investigation
a. Case investigation must be started to confirm the start of an epidemic.
b. Purpose:
i. defines the magnitude of the epidemic in terms of time, place and person
ii. determines what conditions and factors play a role in the occurrence of the
epidemic
iii. identifies the cause, source and mode of transmission
iv. makes recommendations to prevent future recurrence.
c. Steps in investigation:
i. Verification of diagnosis – clinical exam of sample cases, lab investigations
ii. Confirmation of existence of epidemic (case numbers are past expected
frequency)
iii. Defining population at risk
iv. Rapid search for all cases in area – medical survey to identify all cases
v. Analyze data.
vi. Formulate and test hypothesis – source, causative agents, modes of spread,
environmental factors
vii. Evaluation of ecological factor – sanitary status, water supply, atmosphere
changes, movement of human population
viii. Writing the final report – document and finalization

3. Control – know causative organism/mode of transmission, Dengue virus is transmitted by day

biting Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes.
a. treat infected cases
i. Group A – patients that can be sent home
ii. Group B – patient referred for in hospital management
iii. Group C – pt. with severe dengue requiring emergency treatment and urgent
referral
b. vector control measures – prevent breeding by removing breeding sites, insecticide,
personal protection (mosquito net), improve environment sanitation
c. Inform community if there is a Dengue positive case, so others can take more
precautions and/or Association can take remedial steps
 d. The Enhanced 4-S implementation calls for everyone to become prime movers in
controlling mosquito population and avoiding any possible dengue deaths within the
community. The Enhanced 4-S campaign stands for:
e. Search and destroy mosquito-breeding sites
f. Secure Self-protection measures like wearing long pants and long-sleeved shirts, use
mosquito nets, and daily use of mosquito repellent,
g. Seek early consultation
h. Support fogging/spraying only in hotspot areas where increase in cases is registered for
two consecutive weeks to prevent an impending outbreak.
4. Prevention
a. Health education
i. Educational initiatives can encourage people to take an active role in
participating in source reduction
b. Environmental measures
i. eliminate unnecessary container habitats that collect water (such as plastic jars,
bottles, cans, tires, and buckets)
ii. installing water systems with direct connections to residences
iii. Any open containers should be emptied and cleaned each week to eliminate
mosquito eggs and larvae. These efforts can reduce the number of mosquitoes
living in an area.

Prevention measures in community

 Avoid any stagnating water on roads and other community areas

 De-weed unwanted shrubs/bushes in community green spaces.
 Plant lemongrass, citronella, neem trees and other mosquito repelling green cover
 Larvicide schedule is far more important than fogging. It kills the mosquitoes in the larval stage 
 Fogging should be done at dusk when adult mosquitoes are active — around 6 pm. Any later, it’s
highly ineffective.

Preparedness and Intervention!

https://adda.io/blog/2019/10/dengue-prevention-and-management-awareness/
#Prevention_measures_in_community

https://www.slideshare.net/dharmendragahwai/management-of-an-epidemic

https://doh.gov.ph/node/16849