1

Introduction
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A t its simplest level, statistics involves the description and summary of events. How
many home runs did Babe Ruth hit? What is the average rainfall in Seattle? But
from a scientific point of view, it has come to mean much more. Broadly defined, it is
the science, technology and art of extracting information from observational data, with
an emphasis on solving real world problems. As Stigler (1986, p. 1) has so eloquently
put it:
Modern statistics provides a quantitative technology for empirical science; it is a
logic and methodology for the measurement of uncertainty and for examination
of the consequences of that uncertainty in the planning and interpretation of
experimentation and observation.
The logic and associated technology behind modern statistical methods pervades all
of the sciences, from astronomy and physics to psychology, business, manufacturing,
sociology, economics, agriculture, education, and medicine—it affects your life.
To help elucidate the types of problems addressed in this book, consider an
experiment aimed at investigating the effects of ozone on weight gain in rats (Doksum
and Sievers, 1976). The experimental group consisted of 22 seventy-day-old rats kept
in an ozone environment for 7 days. A control group of 23 rats, of the same age,
was kept in an ozone-free environment. The results of this experiment are shown
in table 1.1.
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What, if anything, can we conclude from this experiment? A natural reaction is to

compute the average weight gain for both groups. The averages turn out to be 11 for the
ozone group and 22.4 for the control group. The average is higher for the control group
suggesting that for the typical rat, weight gain will be less in an ozone environment.
However, serious concerns come to mind upon a moment’s reflection. Only 22 rats
were kept in the ozone environment. What if 100 rats had been used or 1,000, or even a
million? Would the average weight gain among a million rats differ substantially from 11,
the average obtained in the experiment? Suppose ozone has no effect on weight gain. By
chance, the average weight gain among rats in an ozone environment might differ from
the average for rats in an ozone-free environment. How large of a difference between
the means do we need before we can be reasonably certain that ozone affects weight
gain? How do we judge whether the difference is large from a clinical point of view?
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 4 BASIC STATISTICS

Table 1.1 Weight gain of rats in ozone experiment

Control: 41.0 38.4 24.4 25.9 21.9 18.3 13.1 27.3 28.5 −16.9
10.1 6.1 7.3 −9.9 6.8 17.9
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Ozone: 20.4 14.3 15.5 28.2

Control: 26.0 17.4 21.8 15.4 27.4 19.2 22.4 17.7 26.0 29.4
Ozone: −9.0 −12.9 14.0 6.6 12.1 15.7 39.9 −15.9 54.6 −14.7
Control: 21.4 26.6 22.7
Ozone: 44.1 −9.0

What about using the average to reflect the weight gain for the typical rat? Are there
other methods for summarizing the data that might have practical value when
characterizing the differences between the groups? The answers to these problems
are nontrivial. The purpose of this book is to introduce the basic tools for answering
these questions.
The mathematical foundations of the statistical methods described in this book were
developed about two hundred years ago. Of particular importance was the work of Pierre-
Simon Laplace (1749–1827) and Carl Friedrich Gauss (1777–1855). Approximately a
century ago, major advances began to appear that dominate how researchers analyze data
today. Especially important was the work of Karl Pearson (1857–1936) Jerzy Neyman
(1894–1981), Egon Pearson (1895–1980), and Sir Ronald Fisher (1890–1962). During
the 1950s, there was some evidence that the methods routinely used today serve us quite
well in our attempts to understand data, but in the 1960s it became evident that serious
practical problems needed attention. Indeed, since 1960, three major insights revealed
conditions where methods routinely used today can be highly unsatisfactory. Although
the many new tools for dealing with known problems go beyond the scope of this book,
it is essential that a foundation be laid for appreciating modern advances and insights,
and so one motivation for this book is to accomplish this goal.
This book does not describe the mathematical underpinnings of routinely used
statistical techniques, but rather the concepts and principles that are used. Generally,
the essence of statistical reasoning can be understood with little training in mathematics
beyond basic high-school algebra. However, if you put enough simple pieces together,
the picture can seem rather fuzzy and complex, and it is easy to lose track of where we
are going when the individual pieces are being explained. Accordingly, it might help to
provide a brief overview of what is covered in this book.
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1.1 Samples versus populations

One key idea behind most statistical methods is the distinction between a sample of
participants or objects versus a population. A population of participants or objects consists
of all those participants or objects that are relevant in a particular study. In the weight-
gain experiment with rats, there are millions of rats we could use if only we had the
resources. To be concrete, suppose there are a billion rats and we want to know the
average weight gain if all one billion were exposed to ozone. Then these one billion rats
compose the population of rats we wish to study. The average gain for these rats is called
the population mean. In a similar manner, there is an average weight gain for all the rats
if they are raised in an ozone-free environment instead. This is the population mean for
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 INTRODUCTION 5

to measure all one billion rats. In the experiment, only 22 rats were exposed to ozone.
These 22 rats are an example of what is called a sample.
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Definition A sample is any subset of the population of individuals or things

under study.

Example 1. Trial of the Pyx

Shortly after the Norman Conquest, around the year 1100, there was already a
need for methods that tell us how well a sample reflects a population of objects.
The population of objects in this case consisted of coins produced on any given
day. It was desired that the weight of each coin be close to some specified
amount. As a check on the manufacturing process, a selection of each day’s
coins was reserved in a box (‘the Pyx’) for inspection. In modern terminology,
the coins selected for inspection are an example of a sample, and the goal is to
generalize to the population of coins, which in this case is all the coins produced
on that day.

Three fundamental components of statistics

Statistical techniques consist of a wide range of goals, techniques and strategies. Three
fundamental components worth stressing are:
1. Design, meaning the planning and carrying out of a study.
2. Description, which refers to methods for summarizing data.
3. Inference, which refers to making predictions or generalizations about a
population of individuals or things based on a sample of observations
available to us.
Design is a vast subject and only the most basic issues are discussed here. Imagine
you want to study the effect of jogging on cholesterol levels. One possibility is to assign
some participants to the experimental condition and another sample of participants to a
control group. Another possibility is to measure the cholesterol levels of the participants
available to you, have them run a mile every day for two weeks, then measure their
cholesterol level again. In the first example, different participants are being compared
under different circumstances, while in the other, the same participants are measured
at different times. Which study is best in terms of determining how jogging affects
cholesterol levels? This is a design issue.
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The main focus of this book is not experimental design, but it is worthwhile
mentioning the difference between the issues covered in this book versus a course on
design. As a simple illustration, imagine you are interested in factors that affect health.
In North America, where fat accounts for a third of the calories consumed, the death
rate from heart disease is 20 times higher than in rural China where the typical diet is
closer to 10% fat. What are we to make of this? Should we eliminate as much fat from
our diet as possible? Are all fats bad? Could it be that some are beneficial? This purely
descriptive study does not address these issues in an adequate manner. This is not to
say that descriptive studies have no merit, only that resolving important issues can be
difficult or impossible without good experimental design. For example, heart disease is
relatively rare in Mediterranean countries where fat intake can approach 40% of calories.
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 6 BASIC STATISTICS

the type of fat consumed. So one possibility is that the amount of fat in a diet, without
regard to the type of fat, might be a poor gauge of nutritional quality. Note, however,
that in the observational study just described, nothing has been done to control other
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factors that might influence heart disease.

Sorting out what does and does not contribute to heart disease requires good
experimental design. In the ozone experiment, attempts are made to control for factors
that are related to weight gain (the age of the rats compared) and then manipulate
the single factor that is of interest, namely the amount of ozone in the air. Here the
goal is not so much to explain how best to design an experiment but rather to provide
a description of methods used to summarize a population of individuals, as well as
a sample of individuals, plus the methods used to generalize from the sample to the
population. When describing and summarizing the typical American diet, we sample
some Americans, determine how much fat they consume, and then use this to generalize
to the population of all Americans. That is, we make inferences about all Americans
based on the sample we examined. We then do the same for individuals who have
a Mediterranean diet, and we make inferences about how the typical American diet
compares to the typical Mediterranean diet.
Description refers to ways of summarizing data that provide useful information
about the phenomenon under study. It includes methods for describing both the sample
available to us and the entire population of participants if only they could be measured.
The average is one of the most common ways of summarizing data. In the jogging
experiment, you might be interested in how cholesterol is affected as the time spent
running every day is increased. How should the association, if any, be described?
Inference includes methods for generalizing from the sample to the population.
The average for all the participants in a study is called the population mean and typically
represented by the Greek letter mu, μ. The average based on a sample of participants
is called a sample mean. The hope is that the sample mean provides a good reflection of
the population mean. In the ozone experiment, one issue is how well the sample mean
estimates the population mean, the average weight-gain for all rats if they could be
included in the experiment. That is, the goal is to make inferences about the population
mean based on the sample mean.

1.2 Comments on teaching and learning statistics

It might help to comment on the goals of this book versus the general goal of teaching
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statistics. An obvious goal in an introductory course is to convey basic concepts and

methods. A much broader goal is to make the student a master of statistical techniques.
A single introductory book cannot achieve this latter goal, but it can provide the
foundation for understanding the relative merits of frequently used techniques. There
is now a vast array of statistical methods one might use to examine problems that are
commonly encountered. To get the most out of data requires a good understanding of
not only what a particular method tells us, but what it does not tell us as well. Perhaps
the most common problem associated with the use of modern statistical methods is
making interpretations that are not justified based on the technique used. Examples are
given throughout this book.
Another fundamental goal in this book is to provide a glimpse of the many advances
and insights
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 INTRODUCTION 7

statistics books have given the impression that all major advances ceased circa 1955.
This is not remotely true. Indeed, major improvements have emerged, some of which
are briefly indicated here.
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1.3 Comments on software

As is probably evident, a key component to getting the most accurate and useful
information from data is software. There are now several popular computer programs for
analyzing data. Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that the choice of
software can be crucial, particularly when the goal is to apply new and improved methods
developed during the last half century. Presumably no software package is best, based
on all of the criteria that might be used to judge them, but the following comments
might help.

Excellent software
The software R is one of the two best software packages available. Moreover, it is free and
available at http://cran.R-project.org. All modern methods developed in recent years,
as well as all classic techniques, are easily applied. One feature that makes R highly
valuable from a research perspective is that a group of academics do an excellent job
of constantly adding and updating routines aimed at applying modern techniques.
A wide range of modern methods can be applied using the basic package. And many
specialized methods are available via packages available at the R web site. A library
of R functions especially designed for applying the newest methods for comparing
groups and studying associations is available at www-rcf.usc.edu/˜rwilcox/.1 Although
not the focus here, occasionally the name of some of these functions will be mentioned
when illustrating some of the important features of modern methods. (Unless stated
otherwise, whenever the name of an R function is supplied, it is a function that belongs
to the two files Rallfunv1-v7 and Rallfunv2-v7, which can be downloaded from the site
just mentioned.)
S-PLUS is another excellent software package. It is nearly identical to R and the
basic commands are the same. One of the main differences is cost: S-PLUS can be
very expensive. There are a few differences from R, but generally they are minor and
of little importance when applying the methods covered in this book. (The R functions
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mentioned in this book are available as S-PLUS functions, which are stored in the files
allfunv1-v7 and allfunv2-v7 and which can be downloaded in the same manner as the
files Rallfunv1-v7 and Rallfunv2-v7.)

Very good software

SAS is another software package that provides power and excellent flexibility. Many
modern methods can be applied, but a large number of the most recently developed
techniques are not yet available via SAS. SAS code could be easily written by anyone
reasonably familiar with SAS, and the company is fairly diligent about upgrading the

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 8 BASIC STATISTICS

routines in their package, but this has not been done as yet for some of the methods to
be described.
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Good software
Minitab is fairly simple to use and provides a reasonable degree of flexibility when
analyzing data. All of the standard methods developed prior to the year 1960 are
readily available. Many modern methods could be run in Minitab, but doing so is
not straightforward. Like SAS, special Minitab code is needed and writing this code
would take some effort. Moreover, certain modern methods that are readily applied
with R cannot be easily done in Minitab even if an investigator was willing to write the
appropriate code.

Unsatisfactory software
SPSS is certainly one of the most popular and frequently used software packages. Part of
its appeal is ease of use. When handling complex data sets, it is one of the best packages
available and it contains all of the classic methods for analyzing data. But in terms
of providing access to the many new and improved methods for comparing groups and
studying associations, which have appeared during the last half-century, it must be given
a poor rating. An additional concern is that it has less flexibility than R and S-PLUS.
That is, it is a relatively simple matter for statisticians to create specialized R and S-PLUS
code that provides non-statisticians with easy access to modern methods. Some modern
methods can be applied with SPSS, but often this task is difficult. However, SPSS 16
has added the ability to access R, which might increase its flexibility considerably. Also,
zumastat.com has software that provides access to a large number of R functions aimed
at applying the modern methods mentioned in this book plus many other methods
covered in more advanced courses. (On the zumastat web page, click on robust statistics
to get more information.)
The software EXCEL is relatively easy to use, it provides some flexibility, but
generally modern methods are not readily applied. A recent review by McCullough and
Wilson (2005) concludes that this software package is not maintained in an adequate
manner. (For a more detailed description of some problems with this software, see
Heiser, 2006.) Even if EXCEL functions were available for all modern methods that
might be used, features noted by McCullough and Wilson suggest that EXCEL should
not be used.
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