KalidAbduselamInjera production project

The project Demand and Supply assumption:

 One year: 365 days
 Annual population growth rate of Harari region: 4%
 Averagely One person daily expected injera consumption: 2 pcs
 Average demand and supply gaps of harari region was expected to be 22% i.e. in harari
region from the total population 78% of the population expected to make available of
injera production for their daily consumption. This means that the remaining 22% of the
population needs injera supply from the market.

 From 22% of market demand and supply gap, this project ( kalidabduselaminjera
production project averagely expected to have 8% share of the market demand gape.
 NB There is no modern bakery injera maker project in Harar city, rather than expected to
have few traditional and small scale makers.
 Therefore, the demand and supply analysis of this project was analyzed based on the
above assumptions.
Table 1. Demand Analysis

Annual Projected demand of The envisage projects

Year Estimated population injera consumption for total Annual total
population. production capacity to
cover 8% market share
from existing market
gap
2007 230,000 167,900,000 2,955,040.00
2008 239,200 174,616,000 3,073,241.60
2009 248,768 181,600,640 3,196,171.26
2010 258,719 188,864,666 3,324,018.11
2011 269,067 196,419,253 3,456,978.85
2012 279,830 204,276,024 3,595,258.02
2013 291,023 212,447,060 3,739,068.26
2014 302,664 220,944,946 3,888,631.05

1
 2015 314,771 229,782,742 4,044,176.27
2016 327,362 238,974,056 4,205,943.38
2017 340,456 248,533,019 4,374,181.13
2018 354,074 258,474,334 4,549,148.28
2019 368,237 268,813,309 4,731,114.24
2020 382,967 279,565,844 4,920,358.86
2021 398,286 290,748,478 5,117,173.21
2022 414,217 302,378,417 5,321,860.14
2023 430,786 314,473,554 5,534,734.55
2024 448,017 327,052,496 5,756,123.93
2025 465,938 340,134,596 5,986,368.89

Table 2: Supply projection/analysis:

Annual Projected supply ofinjera
consumption for total population.
Year Estimated population
(each year estimated
popn*2*365*78%)
2007 230,000 130,962,000
2008 239,200 136,200,480
2009 248,768 141,648,499
2010 258,719 147,314,439
2011 269,067 153,207,017
2012 279,830 159,335,299
2013 291,023 165,708,707
2014 302,664 172,337,058
2015 314,771 179,230,539
2016 327,362 186,399,763
2017 340,456 193,855,755
2018 354,074 201,609,980
209,674,381
2019 368,237

2020 382,967 218,061,359

2021 398,286 226,783,813

2
 2022 414,217 235,855,165
2023 430,786 245,289,372
2024 448,017 255,100,947
2025 465,938 265,304,985

Table3: Projected Demand-Supply Gap on injera production.

Demand-
Annual Annual supply gap Demand gap In
Year
Demand Supply in PCS of %
Injera

2007 167,900,000 130,962,000 36,938,000 22%

2008 174,616,000 136,200,480 38,415,520 22%
2009 181,600,640 141,648,499 39,952,141 22%
2010 188,864,666 147,314,439 41,550,226 22%
2011 196,419,253 153,207,017 43,212,236 22%
2012 204,276,024 159,335,299 44,940,725 22%
2013 212,447,060 165,708,707 46,738,353 22%
2014 220,944,946 172,337,058 48,607,888 22%
2015 229,782,742 179,230,539 50,552,203 22%
2016 238,974,056 186,399,763 52,574,292 22%
2017 248,533,019 193,855,755 54,677,264 22%
2018 258,474,334 201,609,980 56,864,353 22%
2019 268,813,309 209,674,381 59,138,928 22%
2020 279,565,844 218,061,359 61,504,486 22%
2021 290,748,478 226,783,813 63,964,665 22%
2022 302,378,417 235,855,165 66,523,252 22%
2023 314,473,554 245,289,372 69,184,182 22%
2024 327,052,496 255,100,947 71,951,549 22%
2025 340,134,596 265,304,985 74,829,611 22%