Bahir Dar University College of Business

and Economics
Department of Management
(MBA)

Project Sponsor: Bahir Dar City Administration

Egg Demand Forecasting for the coming 10 years at Bahir Dar City

Instructor name: Abebe Walle (PhD)

By: Desalegn Chanie ID. No.: BDU1301626
: Eshete Getawa ID. No.: BDU1301703
: Senait Tamir ID. No.: BDU1301749
: Solomon Chalachew ID. No.: BDU1301791

March, 2022
Bahir Dar, Ethiopia
 Table of Contents
Titles Pages

Abstract.......................................................................................................................................................iii

1. Project Background and History...........................................................................................................1

1.1. Situational Analysis..........................................................................................................................1

1.2. Project idea.......................................................................................................................................1

2. Project Objective..................................................................................................................................2

3. Data Assessment (Sources)...................................................................................................................2

4. Marketing strategy................................................................................................................................3

4.1. Existing size and capacity of egg industry:.......................................................................................3

4.2. Demand and Market structure and characterization..........................................................................6

4.3. Market Segmentation........................................................................................................................7

5. Ethiopian egg Import and export value.................................................................................................7

6. The role of industry in national economy.............................................................................................8

7. Demand Forecast..................................................................................................................................9

7.1. Household demand forecast..............................................................................................................9

7.2. Hotel and lodges demand forecast..................................................................................................10

7.3. Café and restaurants demand forecast.............................................................................................11

7.4. Small restaurants demand forecast..................................................................................................12

7.5. Consumers Total Demand...............................................................................................................13

8. Conclusion..........................................................................................................................................14

9. Challenge and prospect of the industry...............................................................................................14

10. Recommendation................................................................................................................................15

11. Reference............................................................................................................................................16

i
Project Profile:

Project Title: Egg Demand Forecasting for the coming 10 years in Bahir Dar City,
Amhara Regional State.

Project Location: Bahir Dar City in Amhara region.

Goal: To balance the demand and supply of egg and create employment opportunity in bahir dar
city.

Project Components:

• produce information about egg market demand and supply

• reveal the potential of egg market in relation to employment opportunities

ii
 Abstract
Eggs have high potential for improving nutrition outcomes in low-income countries. Besides
improving nutrition outcome engaging on egg production creates employment opportunity for a
large sector of a society. Thus, the poultry egg industry should lead with market intervention.
However, the design of marketoriented interventions that might cost-effectively increase
population’s egg consumption. To do so we analyzed primary and secondary data sets on poultry
egg producers and consumers, agents and retailers, and government and non-government
institutions to understand egg markets and forecast the coming 10 years egg demand in Bahir Dar
City Administration. In the city administration there are 50 high scale 150 medium and 100 small
scale (individual household) poultry farms and there daily production capacity is 2000-3000, 500-
1000 and 100-500 respectively . In addition to this, a large quantity which is imported from north
Gondar: Dera, Ebinat, Smada, Gaint and Estie 50,000 per week. Weast gojjam: Achfer and Mecha
30,000 per week and Awi zone: Dangila and Enjibara 10,000 per week. Individual households,
hotels and lodges, café and restaurants, and small restaurants are the major users of egg in the city
administration. In the industry the first 10 high level enterprises takes the leading position in the
market. Poor infrastructure; inadequate access to affordable credit; poor managerial acumen; lack of
skill in using technology, escalating costs of production, inefficient methods of production, and
religious fasting practices are the major challenges in poultry egg production industry. The other
way market access, feed access, increment of banks and credit institutions, increment of population
size, good government policy direction, potential for business models such as vertical integration
and contract farming are some of the opportunities. There is demand and supply gap, almost the
total demand would not met from currently few domestic producer and supplier surrounding Bahir
Dar city. Due to high demand of egg there is no high competition between competitors (producers)
in significant impact.

iii
 1. Project Background and History

1.1. Situational Analysis

The Amhara Region is located in the northwestern part of Ethiopia between 9°20' and 14°20' North
latitude and 36° 20' and 40° 20' East longitude. Its land area is estimates at about 170000 square
kilometers. Amhara borders Tigray Region in the North, Afar in the East, Oromia in the South,
Benishangul-Gumuz in the Southwest and the country of Sudan in the west.  The region is divided
into 15 zones, 173 Woreda (district) and about 3,429 kebeles (the smallest administrative units).
Geographically, Bahir Dar (Amharic for “shore side”) is located between 110 28’94’’ to 110
38’29’’ north latitude and 370 23’28’’ to 370 36’34’’ east longitude and 1700 m above sea level.
The city is strategically located at the side of the country’s largest Lake - Tana and the world’s
longest River-Abay River, in what was previously Gojam province. It has 15,455 and 13,205 hectar
urban and rural land respectively. According to Finance and Economy bureau report the city
population is expected to more than 389,177 including Meshenti, Tis Abay and Zege and other
towns in 2020. And it has 6 sub cities, 26 city Keble, 10 rural Keble and 4 satellite towns.
Regarding to its economic activities there are 132 small, 46 medium and 8 higher industries in the
city administration including poultry egg farms.
Now a day due to the weather condition is very much conducive for poultry farms and potential of
the market and to create job opportunity for unemployed citizens the poultry egg farm is intensively
practiced in the city. Due to the increment of population and service provider private and
government institutions poultry egg production has become the untapped market in Bahir Dar city.
In the city administration there are 50 high scale 150 medium and 100 small scale (individual
household) poultry egg farm enterprises. In addition to this, a large quantity of egg imported from
north Gondar, weast gojjam and awi zones. There are three whole sellers and more than hundred
retailers in the city. And they work as a middle agent between producers and customers. Individual
households, hotels and lodges, café and restaurants, and small restaurants are the major users of egg
in the city administration. In the industry the first 10 high level enterprises takes the leading
position in the market.

1.2. Project idea

Nowadays, foods are not intended to only satisfy hunger and to provide necessary nutrients for
humans, but also to prevent nutrition-related diseases and improve physical and mental wellbeing of
consumers (Fernandez, 2018).

1
Eggs often referred to as ‘nature’s multivitamin’ or ‘nature’s first food’, have tremendous potential
to counter maternal and child malnutrition in Ethiopia. They contain 13 essential vitamins and
minerals that play a vital role in supporting human nutrition and growth. Eggs are easy to store,
transport, clean, cook and eat, and can be prepared as a meal on their own or else used as an
ingredient in recipes (Islam, 2014).
Among all the sources of animal protein, eggs are one of the most affordable ones and have one of
the lowest environmental footprints, making them a sustainable means of supporting optimal
development and reducing malnutrition in children. Moreover, egg farming can provide lucrative
economic outcomes for smallholder farmers (Fernandez, 2018).
Eggs are an inexpensive and highly nutritious food, providing 18 vitamins and minerals, the
composition of which can be affected by several factors such as hen diet, age, strain as well as
environmental factors (Herron & Fernandez, 2004). Nevertheless, although different compositions
have been reported by several authors (Islam, 2014) on average, the macronutrient content of eggs
include low carbohydrates and about 12 g per 100 g of protein and lipids, most of which are
monounsaturated (Islam, 2014)and supply the diet with several essential nutrients. Some of these
nutrients, such as zinc, selenium, retinol and tocopherols, are deficient in people consuming a
western diet, and given its antioxidant activity, can protect humans from many degenerative
processes, including CVD (Fernandez, 2018).
Consumption of poultry products is more common in urban than in rural areas. Poultry consumption
is commonly high during holiday periods. The national poultry eggs consumption is estimated, on
an average to be 69,000 tons per annum (ILRI, 2000).
Beyond improving nutrition outcome for the life of people in the city administration; egg
production has a crucial contribution by creating employment opportunity and increasing working
force in the economy. So that, the project would had a great impact for the city and the country at
large.

2. Project Objective
To balance the demand and supply of egg and to create employment opportunity in bahir dar city.

3. Data Assessment (Sources)

Primary data

The primary data collected for this study is used interview. The interviews took place between 07
march 2022 and 11 march 2022. The selected sample consumers namely hotels (5), café

2
&restaurants (5), small restaurants (‘kurse bet’)(10), and whole seller(1) and retailers(5) are
interviewed.

Secondary Data

One of the analyses in this report is based on secondary data collected by the Central Statistical
Agency (CSA), ANRS Plan Commission 2020 report, Bahir Dar City Administration Trade and
Industry, TVET and Culture and Tourism Bureau, city agriculture bureau and FAO reports.

4. Marketing strategy
Marketing strategy is one of the main tools for securing reliable market and sustainable customers,
the producers should inter to the market with lower price to make their product more competitive
than the imported products. To enter in to the market easily the company should adopt appropriate
Promotion strategy, promoting plays great role for new comers in the market (Kotler, 2016).
According to Kotler (2016) in the market strategy the promoter supposed to use the following
different marketing mix:
 Setting price that is consumer-oriented, using different promotional activities and
appropriate distribution channel that already the promoter set to distribute the product
through whole sellers, retailers and directly to individual consumer
 The company should deliver its products on time for its customers so as to maintain market
chain and entail trust.

4.1. Existing size and capacity of egg industry:

Global Production and Consumption of Eggs

Global egg production, consumption and their effects on human health, and use as functional foods
is expanding owing to their capacity to decrease the risks of some diseases, apart from easy
availability and affordability. In both developed and developing countries an increased egg
production and consumption could significantly improve nutritional needs of a common man and
children with developing or growing minds. Eggs are an economical source of nutrients for a
healthy diet and life, especially important for the mental development of growing children (IEF,
2014).

Over the past ten years, global egg production has witnessed impressive growth. According to data
from the FAO total egg production has grown from 61.7 million tons in 2008 to 76.7 million tons in
2018 – a notable increase of 24% in ten years (Fenet Belay, 2019). Figure 1 shows the development
of egg production since 2000, illustrating the continuous growth of global egg production.

3
 Figure:1 Development of global egg production, 2008-2018

Source: Development of global egg production, 2000 – 2018 (FAO database)

In 2018, China produced 466 billion eggs (34% of world production), making them the biggest
producer by far. China is followed by the EU, USA and India, with these top four regions producing
almost 60% of the world’s eggs (Fenet Belay, 2019). 
There is a large variation in egg consumption between countries. When the total world production
of eggs in 2018 is divided by the total world population of 7.6 billion people, the average
consumption is 161 eggs per person per year. IEC data for the year 2018 illustrates the difference
with high egg consumption in Mexico (368 eggs) and Japan (337) and a lower consumption in
South Africa (130). Countries with a large population are quite different with egg consumption in
China of 255 eggs and in India 76 eggs. The EU average is 210 eggs per person per year, although
within the EU consumption data also differs from high in Spain (273 eggs) and Denmark (248) to
lower levels in Poland (145 eggs) and Portugal (146 eggs) (Fenet Belay, 2019).
Domestic market of egg industry
Based on this system of classification, Ethiopia has three poultry production systems: large
commercial poultry production with “moderate to high biosecurity” (sector 2), small commercial
poultry production with “low to minimal” biosecurity (sector 3) and village or backyard production
with “minimal biosecurity" (sector 4) (Nzietchueng, 2008). Note that the poultry sector in Ethiopia
plausibly does not contain any sector 1. The sector 2 system of poultry production is developing and
the main commercial poultry farms – Elflora, Agro Industry, Genesis and Alema – are located
around Debre Zeit in Oromia. The sector 3 system is emerging around the urban and peri-urban
areas of Ethiopia. In terms of the FAO definition, sector 4 or the village or backyard production
represents the main poultry production system in most parts of the country. The village or backyard

4
production system is characterized by low level of input and output. It is especially favorable to
smallholder farmers due to its low capital requirement, high cost, efficiency, flexible production
system and low production risk. This production system contributes over 98% national egg and over
99% poultry with annual output of 78,000 metric tons of egg and 72,300 metric tons of meat. There
are also emerging small scale market oriented intensive system in urban and peri-urban areas
holding small number of exotic breeds of chicken (50-1000) and are produced along commercial
lines using relatively modern management methods. The commercial poultry production system
contributes nearly 2% of the national poultry population in Ethiopia. It is highly intensive
production system, which holds greater or equal to 10,000 birds. The system is characterized by
indoor conditions with a medium to high bio-security level, holds imported exotic breeds that
require intensive inputs such as feed, housing, health care and modern management system
(Nzietchueng, 2008).
In recent years some improvements have occurred, yet the poultry sector is characterized by low
productivity and production. In 2006, the total poultry egg production was estimated at 36,624 tons,
(Figure 2) (Dawit Alemu, 2006). This production mainly comes from the rural poultry based on
traditional indigenous chicken farming, lack of quality inputs, and high bird mortality rates.
Figure 2: Annual eggs production in Ethiopia (2002-2006)

39500
39000
38500
38000
37500
39240
37000
36500
36000 37060
35500 36624
36624
36624
35000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

Source: FAOSTAT (2008)

And still now only 13 eggs per person per year are available to the population of Ethiopia
(Fernandez, 2018).

5
 4.2. Demand and Market structure and characterization
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, each person should take 365 eggs every year
(Fernandez, 2018). There are two major poultry marketing channels where farmers directly sell to
consumers as well as directly to small retail traders who take the chicken to large urban markets.
Accordingly, it was found that about 42% of all transactions reported were local farmers selling
their eggs to local consumers whereas 39.4% of the transactions involved local farmers selling their
eggs to traders who re-sold the eggs to urban consumers. Poultry buyers at all sample markets were
traders, consumers, restaurants and hotels, lodges and resorts (Dawit Alemu, 2006).
The other way small-scale egg producing households take their eggs to market, there are three types
of buyers: other households (consumers); operators of the permanent shops; and aggregators (egg
collectors) (Fenet Belay, 2019). Aggregators buy a large number of eggs, upwards of 500 or more,
from the producer households.
In the city administration there are 50 high scale 150 medium and 100 small scale (individual
household) poultry farms and there daily production capacity is 2000-3000, 500-1000 and 100-500
respectively . In addition to this, a large quantity which is imported from north Gondar: Dera,
Ebinat, Smada, Gaint and Estie 50,000 per week. Weast gojjam: Achfer and Mecha 30,000 per
week and Awi zone: Dangila and Enjibara 10,000 per week.

Major suppliers of egg for Bahir Dar City Administration

Table:1 Major suppliers of egg for Bahir Dar City Administration

Type of suppliers No. Quantity Quantity

suppliers 2020 2021
Piece Piece
Higher level enterprises 50 35,500,000 36,000,000
Medium level enterprises 150 40,000,000 40,500,000
Household level 100 10,500,000 10,800,000
Import S/Gondar 20 2,400,000 2,405,000
W/Gojjam 10 1,440,000 1,444,000
Awi 6 480,000 491,000
Total 336 90,320,000 91,640,000
Source: bahir dar city administration city agriculture bureau, trade & industry bureau
In the city administration there are three whole sellers and more than hundred retailers. The whole
sellers sold 60% of the total supply of egg in the city to different parts of the country namely Addis
Abeba, Jijiga and Metema. The major source of retailers is small individual house hold level

6
enterprises and whole sellers. Retailers addressed most of individual household and small shops and
super markets.
Figure:3 Characterization of the main egg value chain in bahir dar city

Household home Hotels, lodges, café & Local export to

consumption restaurants, resorts different regions

Retailer

Whole
seller

Household Medium level Higher level

Importer
(lower) level enterprise enterprise

Source: its own survey

4.3. Market Segmentation

It is the process of subdividing a market into distinct subsets of customers that behave in the same
way or have similar needs. Egg market can be segmented based on: the consumer group like hotel,
lodges and resorts, café and restaurant, individual consumer, small restaurants in bahir dar city etc.
There are about 72 big hotels, lodges and resorts, 355 café and restaurants, 1000 small restaurants
(‘kurse bet’’), and 389,177 individual consumers in Bahir Dar city.

5. Ethiopian egg Import and export value

As we have tried to understand from different reading import-export value of egg in Ethiopia is not
comparable. We can say that the export value is almost none. ELFORA, Genesis, Kalehiwot, Alema
and NACID are the well-known table egg producers in Ethiopia. Among those firms ELFORA
takes the leading position in the industry. The sector is living in infancy stage and even the
population is not well satisfied. In 2005/6, the total egg egg supplies was estimated at 1,969.4 tons,
(table 3)

7
Table:2 Commercial Supplies of Table Eggs (2005/06)

Source: Marketing and Sales Strategies of Elfora Agro-Industries Plc: Getinet Hailu: Addis Ababa University: July 2007

In some extent Ethiopia Imports from New Zealand of Dairy products, eggs, honey, and edible
products was US$2.97 Million during 2020, according to the United Nations COMTRADE
database on international trade.

6. The role of industry in national economy

Across regions, poultry production is quickly becoming more intensive, geographically
concentrated, vertically integrated and linked with global supply chains. Despite there are rapid
structural changes, poultry production representing a vital source of income for poor rural
households. Poultry production is generally considered as supplementary to other livelihood
activities, but poultry is actually a form of saving and insurance, and contributes to income
diversification. Eggs can easily be sold for cash (poultry is often described as farmers’ “petty cash”)
and serve as a buffer against shocks such as bad harvests. As poultry flock grows, surplus birds may
be bartered for goats, thus further improving a poor family’s livelihood and food security. In
Senegal, for instance, a small goat is worth five to six hens. Bartering poultry is common in
economies with currencies that are unstable or scarce. 
Commercialization of poultry egg is an indispensable pathway towards economic growth and
development for many agriculture dependent developing countries (Aklilu Nigussie, 2013).
Sustainable household food security and welfare also requires commercial transformation of
subsistence agriculture (Aklilu Nigussie, 2013). Commercialization poultry egg production is likely
to result in welfare gain through the realization of smallholder women, advantages, economies of
scale, and for dynamic technological, organizational and institutional change effect that arise the
flow of ideas due to exchange based interactions. Animal production in general and chicken
production in particular play important socio-economic role in developing countries (Aklilu
Nigussie, 2013). According to Aklilu (2004), smallholder farming families, land less laborers and

8
people with low incomes below the poverty line are able to raise chicken with low inputs and
harvest the benefit of eggs and meat via scavenging feed (Aklilu Nigussie, 2013).
Based on the assessment results, egg production may considered as possible viable business option
for smallholder farmers and youth groups in most locations. Generally, now a day in Ethiopia
poultry egg production engages most young peoples in the industry and it becomes one of the
growing economic sectors.

7. Demand Forecast

7.1. Household demand forecast

Projection of population growth is made by taking 2021 ANRS Plan Commission population
projection report of 389,117, as the base year and applying the average annual growth rate of 5.02%
for the 2022projection year. And, the projection of household consumption growth is made by
taking FAO annual standard egg consumption per person/year is 1 and 365 respectively.

Assumption:

To get annual projected demand we used the following procedures:

Estimated population growth rate = 5.02%
Standard of egg each individual =1egg/day
Consumption of egg per year/person = 365
Total egg consumption in 2021=142,027,705 pieces
Table:3 household demand forecast

Year Estimated Annual standard The total

population egg consumption household
growth rate per person/year projected demand
(5.02%) (piece)
2021 389,117 142,027,705
Base year
2022 408,650 149,157,250
2023 429,164 156,644,860
2024 450,708 164,508,420
365
2025 474,144 173,062,560

2026 497,946 181,750,290

2027 522,942 190,873,830
2028 549,193 200,455,445
9
2029 576,762 210,518,130
2030 605,715 221,085,975
2031 636,121 232,184,165
Source: by its own calculation, FAO
Service sector industry growth rate

Table:4 service sector industry growth rates

Service providers Quantity (2020) Quantity (2021) Expected Growth rate (%)
Hotel and lodges 71 72 1.4
Café and restaurants 350 355 1.42
Small restaurants 950 1000 5.2
Source: by its own calculation

Service sector consumption Growth

Table:5 service sector consumption growth rates

Service providers Quantity consumption Quantity consumption Expected

(2020) (2021) Growth rate (%)
Piece Piece
Hotel and lodges 14,400*71=1,022,400 16,512*72=1,188,864 16.28
Café and 70,000*12=840,000 74,500*12=894,000 6.5
restaurants
Small restaurants 95,000*12=1,140,000 115,000*12=1,380,000 21
Source: by its own calculation

7.2. Hotel and lodges demand forecast

Projection of hotels and lodges growth is made by taking 2021 Bahir Dar City Administration
Culture and Tourism Bureau report of 72, as the base year and applying the average annual growth
rate of 1.4% for the 2022 projection year. And, the projection of hotels consumption growth is made
by taking 2021hotels annual quantity consumption primary data of 16,512 Pieces, as the base year
and applying the average annual growth rate of 16.28% for the 2022projection year.

Assumption:

To get annual projected demand we used the following procedures:

Hotel and lodges growth rate =1.4%

10
Consumption growth rate = 16.28

Consumption of egg per hotel and lodges in 2021= 16,512 Pieces

Estimated No. of Hotels= Hotel and lodges growth rate* base year total hotels

Projected consumption per hotel = consumption rate* base year consumption of egg per hotel and
lodges +consumption per hotel/year

Total projected hotel and lodges demand= consumption per hotel/year * Estimated No. of Hotels

Table:6 hotels and lodges demand forecast

Year Hotel and Estimated Consumption Consumption The total

lodges growth No. of rate % per hotel/ projected
rate % Hotels year demand
Piece Piece
2021 - 72 - 16,512 1,188,864

2022 73 19,200 1,401,600

2023 74 22,325 1,652,050
2024 75 25,959 1,946,925
1.4
2025 76 30,185 2,294,060
16.28
2026 77 35,099 2,702,623
2027 78 40,813 3,183,4114
2028 79 47,457 3,749,103
2029 80 55,182 4,414,560
2030 81 64,165 5,197,365
2031 82 74,611 6,118,102
Source: by its own calculation

7.3. Café and restaurants demand forecast

Projection of Café and restaurants growth is made by taking 2021 Bahir Dar City Administration
Culture and Tourism Bureau report of 355, as the base year and applying the average annual growth
rate of 1.42% for the 2022 projection year. And, the projection of Café and restaurants consumption
growth is made by taking 2021 Café and restaurants annual quantity consumption primary data of
2,520 Pieces, as the base year and applying the average annual growth rate of 6.5% for the
2022projection year.

11
Assumption:
To get annual projected demand we used the following procedures:
Café and restaurants growth rate =1.42
Consumption growth rate = 6.5
Consumption of egg per Café and restaurants in 2021= 2,520 Pieces

Table:7 café and restaurants demand forecast

Year café & Estimated Consumption Consumptio The total

restaurants No. of café rate % n per café & projected
growth & restaurants/ demand
rate % restaurants year
Piece Piece
2021 - 355 - 2,520 894,600

2022 360 2,683 965,880

2023 365 2,857 1,042,805
2024 370 3,042 1,125,540
1.42
2025 375 3,239 1,214,625
6.5
2026 380 3,449 1,310,620
2027 385 3,673 1,414,105
2028 390 3,911 1,525,290
2029 395 4,165 1,645,175
2030 400 4,435 1,774,000
2031 405 4,723 1,912,815
Source: by its own calculation

7.4. Small restaurants demand forecast

Projection of Small restaurants growth is made by taking 2021 Bahir Dar City Administration
TVET Bureau report of 1000, as the base year and applying the average annual growth rate of 5.2%
for the 2022 projection year. And, the projection of Small restaurants consumption growth is made
by taking 2021 Small restaurants annual quantity consumption primary data of 1,380 Pieces, as the
base year and applying the average annual growth rate of 21.0% for the 2022projection year.

12
Assumptions:
To get annual projected demand we used the following procedures:
Small restaurants growth rate =5.2
Consumption growth rate = 21.0
Consumption of egg per Small restaurants in 2021= 1,380 Pieces

Table:8 small restaurants demand forecast

Year small Estimated Consumption Consumption The total

per small
restaurants No. of café rate % projected
restaurants /
growth & demand
year
rate % restaurants
Piece Piece
2021 - 1,000 - 1,380 1,380,000

2022 1,052 1,670 1,756,629

2023 1,106 2,020 2,234,120
2024 5.2 1,163 21.0 2,444 2,842,372
2025 1,223 2,957 3,616,411

2026 1,286 3,577 4,600,022

2027 1,352 4,328 5,851456
2028 1,422 5,236 7,445,529
2029 1,495 6,335 9,470,825
2030 1,572 7,665 12,049,380
2031 1,653 9,274 15,329922
Source: by its own calculation.

7.5. Consumers Total Demand

The total egg demand of consumers by the year 2031 in Bahir Dar City Administration is estimated
255,545,004 pieces (12,777.2 tones) (table: 9)

13
Table: 9 total consumers demand by year 2031

Year Household demand Hotels and Café & Small Total

lodges restaurants restaurants
growth
Piece Piece Piece Piece Piece
2022 149,157,250 1,401,600 965,880 1,756,629 153,281,359
2023 156,644,860 1,652,050 1,042,805 2,234,120 161,573,835
2024 164,508,420 1,946,925 1,125,540 2,842,372 170,423,257
2025 173,062,560 2,294,060 1,214,625 3,616,411 180,187,656

2026 181,750,290 2,702,623 1,310,620 4,600,022 190,363,555

2027 190,873,830 3,183,4114 1,414,105 5,851456 229,973,505
2028 200,455,445 3,749,103 1,525,290 7,445,529 213,175,367
2029 210,518,130 4,414,560 1,645,175 9,470,825 226,048,690
2030 221,085,975 5,197,365 1,774,000 12,049,380 240,106,720
2031 232,184,165 6,118,102 1,912,815 15,329922 255,545,004
Tota 1,880,240,925 61,310,502 13,930,855 65,196,666 2,020,678,948
l
Source: by its own calculation

8. Conclusion
From the market analysis, it’s observed that the demand and supply gap estimate, almost the total
demand would not met from currently few domestic producer and supplier surrounding Bahir Dar
city. Due to high demand of egg there is no high competition between competitors (producers) in
significant impact. This situation encourage new interested entrant firms that join the industry to
maintain other national advantages such as employment opportunity creation, technology transfer,
etc. Given the global importance of eggs as a functional food having recognized nutritional
significance, health beneficial effects of nutrients; mass production and consumption patterns are
the clear reflection of ongoing positive and beneficial outcomes willingly availed by the consumers.

9. Challenge and prospect of the industry

One key challenge in increasing egg and animal sourced food consumption in general in Ethiopia
relates to religious fasting practices. This is particularly the case for Orthodox Christians who
comprise 82.5percent of the population in bahir dar (CSA, 2010). The Ethiopian Orthodox
Tewahedo Church allocates 110 to 115 days of fasting per year for common people and a total of

14
220 days for priests and other people associated with the church. During the fast, devout Orthodox
Christians follow a vegan diet by refraining from consuming meat or other animal products,
including eggs and dairy products.
Constraints have been identified in the areas of husbandry, feeding and health, availability of inputs,
information and credit. Small-scale poultry farmers also encountered problems in marketing
produce (Islam, 2014). Adverse effects of excessive exposure to high temperatures include
excessive panting, poor growth and development of birds and reduced egg production and size, and
lower egg shell quality. Domestic industries are failing due to poor infrastructure; inadequate access
to affordable credit; poor managerial acumen; lack of skill in using technology, escalating costs of
production, inefficient methods of production, socio-cultural factors, lack of information, and high
rates of perishability (Islam, 2014). However there are different constraints, market access, feed
access, increment of banks and credit institutions, increment of population size, good government
policy direction, Potential for business models such as vertical integration and contract farming
were some of the opportunities identified according to their order of importance.

10. Recommendation
After thorough analysis of the project and considering its socio-economic benefits, untapped market
potential and financial viability, the business poultry egg farm is highly recommended for potential
investors to join the industry and Ethiopia financial institution should finance this worthy project for
mutual benefits of the promoters and the financing institutions. Though, the government gave
emphasis for poultry farms; the day today increment of the price of inputs and availability should be
under consideration.

11. Reference
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Aklilu Nigussie, A. K. (2013). Popularization of Chicken Production in Smallholder Women
Agropastoralist of Ethiopia: Case of Afar Regional State. p 2.

CSA. (2010). Population and Housing Census Report-Country - 2007. Addis Ababa: central
statistical agency of Ethiopia.

Dawit Alemu, T. D. (2006). Overview and Background Paper on Ethiopia’s Poultry

Sector:Relevance for HPAI Research in Ethiopia. Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper
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Fenet Belay, &. A. ( 2019). Socioeconomic importance and production characteristics of village
poultry production in Ethiopia: A review. Nigerian J. Anim. Sci, 112-122.

Fernandez, M. L. (2018). Egg Consumption and Human Health. nutrients, p. 706-729.

Herron, K., & Fernandez, M. (2004). Are the current dietary guidelines regarding egg consumption
appropriate? J. Nutr. 187–190.

IEF. (2014). New International Egg Foundation Launched to Help Combat Malnutrition in
Developing Countries. ] International Egg Foundation.

ILRI. (2000). Handbook of livestock statistics for developing countries. Kenya: International
Livestock Research Institute.

Islam, M. k. (2014). Challenges and Prospects of Poultry Industry in Bangladesh. European Journal
of Business and Management, p. 116-118.

Kotler. (2016). Marketing Management. England: Pearson Education Limite.

Nzietchueng, S. (2008). Characterization of poultry production systems and potential pathways for
the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Ethiopia. Livestock Research
Institute.

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