CLIMATE CHANGE IN

SPAIN
AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES UNTIL NOW

SPAIN'S RUGGED TERRAIN AND GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY.
DIFFERENCES IN ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF OVER 18 ºC ARE RECORDED AT SEPARATE SITES ON
THE MAINLAND. TEMPERATURE TREND ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THAT THERE HAS BEEN A WIDESPREAD RISE IN
ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SINCE THE MID-1970S, WITH WARMING BEING MORE APPARENT IN
WINTER (1,9).
PRECIPITATION CHANGES UNTIL NOW

• AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM BARELY 150 MM TO OVER 2500 MM. ANOTHER FEATURE
IS THE HIGH LEVEL OF YEAR-ON-YEAR CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM DAILY VALUES. RAINFALL VARIABILITY IS SO GREAT THAT COEFFICIENTS OF
OVER 20% ARE RECORDED IN THE MEDITERRANEAN REGIONS AND CANARY ISLANDS, WHILE SEQUENCES
OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITHOUT RAIN CAN LAST LONGER THAN 4 MONTHS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY (1).
WIND CLIMATE CHANGES UNTIL NOW

• AN ANALYSIS OF A 27 YEAR LONG WAVE BUOY DATASET (1983-2010) RECORDED AT CADIZ (SW SPAIN) DID
NOT SHOW A CLEAR TREND IN WAVE CLIMATE AND STORMINESS (20)
GLACIER CHANGES UNTIL NOW
• GLACIERS IN EIGHT OF THE NINE EUROPEAN GLACIAL REGIONS ARE RETREATING. PYRENEAN GLACIAL
RETREAT HAS BEEN MOST NOTABLE (8). THE PYRENEESHAVE LOST ALMOST 90% OF THEIR GLACIER ICE IN
THE PREVIOUS CENTURY AND THE REST MAY DISAPPEAR WITHIN A FEW DECADES. THE MELTING RATE OF
THE ICE THAT IS STILL THERE KEEPS INCREASING: BETWEEN 2002 AND 2008 THE SPANISH PYRENEES
LOST ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEIR VOLUME (5).
SEA TEMPERATURE CHANGES UNTIL NOW
• TEMPERATURES IN THE CATALAN SEA HAVE INCREASED AROUND 1.1°C IN THE UPPERMOST WATERS (0 TO
50M) AND AROUND 0.7°C AT 80 M OVER THE LAST 35 YR (FROM 1974 TO 2008) (16), WHICH IS A
SIMILAR RATE TO THAT INFERRED FROM SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 1985 AND 2006 FOR THE
WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN (0.03°C PER YEAR (17)). THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA IN THE LAST DECADES SEEMS TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN
THE TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN THE OCEANS ON A GLOBAL SCALE. A RECENT COMPILATION OF
TEMPERATURE TIME SERIES FROM THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA REVEALS A CONSISTENT
WARMING PATTERN OVER THE LAST 40 YR AT A VERY SIMILAR INCREASING RATE (18).
AIR TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURY
• THE EEA CURRENTLY PREDICTS A RISE IN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN SPAIN OF AROUND 4 DEGREES BY
2080 (WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY (10)). EXTREME SUMMERS LIKE THE 2003 SPELL ARE LIKELY TO BECOME
FOUR TIMES AS COMMON IN SPAIN AND SOUTHERN EUROPE. UNDER HIGH EMISSION SCENARIOS EVERY
SECOND SUMMER IN EUROPE WILL BE AS HOT OR EVEN HOTTER THAN 2003 BY THE END OF THE TWENTY-
FIRST CENTURY. IN SOUTHERN EUROPE, THESE CHANGES ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR EVEN EARLIER (IN
SPAIN BY THE 2020S). THE REPORT BY THE EEA PUTS THE EXPECTED RISE IN TEMPERATURE IN EUROPE AT
BETWEEN 2 AND 6.3 DEGREES BY 2100 (8)
HEAT WAVE AND COLD SPELL CHANGES IN THE 21ST
CENTURY
• IN SPAIN AND PORTUGAL THE NUMBER OF HEAT WAVES, THEIR DURATION AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE
IN THE COURSE OF THIS CENTURY. AT THE SAME TIME, LESS COLD SPELLS WILL OCCUR, AND THEY WILL
BECOME LESS INTENSE. THIS WAS SHOWN IN A STUDY WHERE THE IMPACTS OF A HIGH-END SCENARIO
OF CLIMATE CHANGE (THE SO-CALLED RCP8.5 SCENARIO) WERE ASSESSED FOR TWO FUTURE PERIODS,
NAMELY MID-TERM (2046 - 2065) AND LONG-TERM (2081 - 2100), AND COMPARED WITH THE RECENT-
PAST REFERENCE CLIMATE (1986 - 2005) (32)
PRECIPITATION CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURY

• GENERALLY, PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE ALL OVER SPAIN, AND THIS DECREASE IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AT THE END OF THE 21ST CENTURY. WITH RESPECT TO THE PRESENT SITUATION
THE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 5% IN THE CENTRAL, NORTHERN AND
Precipitation changes in the 21st century
EASTERN REGIONS, AND BY 10% IN THE SOUTHWEST IN 2011-2040. IN 2070-2100 THE PROJECTED
DECREASE IS 15 (LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO) - 25% (HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO) IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN REGIONS, AND 20 (LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO) - >30% (HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO) IN THE
SOUTH (2) (SEE ALSO (10)). ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE DURATION OF DROUGHTS AN INCREASE IN
THE OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS IS PROJECTED (23,24).
WIND CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE 21ST CENTURY

• ACCORDING TO MODEL CALCULATIONS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND CLIMATE IS PROJECTED FOR

THE 21ST CENTURY (2)
 PARTICIPANTES

ESPEJO SERRANO, CARLOS

CASTILLO BERRAL, JOSE MARÍA
FERNÁNDEZ SÁNCHEZ, ÁLVARO