Hypothesis

What is a hypothesis

A hypothesis is a proposed explanation that is based on limited evidence as a starting

point for further evaluation. A hypothesis is also described as an educated guess and is
a statement that can be scientifically tested. When writing a hypothesis, you should
follow the general "if/then" format.

What is hypothesis testing

Hypothesis testing is the formal procedure that statisticians use to test whether a
hypothesis can be accepted. It is used to figure out if the primary hypothesis is true or
not.

Forms of hypothesis testing were first used in the 1700s by men named John Arbuthnot
and Pierre-Simon Laplace. They both analyzed the human sex ratio at birth. In the
modern world, hypothesis testing is used frequently in research and it's also an
important method in online marketing.

An example of hypothesis testing being used in online marketing is evaluating click-

through performance in two different marketing campaigns. The goal of this test would
be to determine if there is a significant difference in click-through rates between
Campaign 1 and Campaign 2.

To determine this, a test is chosen and then the results are calculated from a specific
formula. Based on the outcomes of the two campaigns, a conclusion would be drawn
from the results and you would establish whether or not there was a significant
difference between the two campaigns.

Types of hypotheses

There are seven main hypothesis types:

● Simple hypothesis: A simple hypothesis will reflect a relationship between two

variables, an independent variable and a dependent variable.

● Complex hypothesis: A complex hypothesis reflects the relationship between two

or more independent variables and two or more dependent variables.
 ● Working or research hypothesis: A working hypothesis is a proposed solution to
a problem until more research can be done or a better idea comes to mind.

● Null hypothesis: The null hypothesis is a hypothesis that states there isn't any
relationship between the two variables.

● Alternative hypothesis: The alternative hypothesis states that there is a

relationship between the two variables. It's the opposite of the null hypothesis.

● Logical hypothesis: A logical hypothesis is a hypothesis that is verified by logical

evidence.

● Statistical hypothesis: A statistical hypothesis is a hypothesis that is statistically

verified. It is a method of statistical inference.

Testing a Hypothesis

1. Specify the null hypothesis

A null hypothesis attempts to show that there isn't any variation between variables, or
that a single variable isn't any different than its mean. It's a statement of no effect
between two or more factors or groups. If conducting research studies, researchers are
usually interested in disproving the null hypothesis.

2. Specify the alternative hypothesis

An alternative hypothesis is the opposite of the null hypothesis; it states that there is a
difference between the two variables. Often, researchers are interested in proving the
alternative hypothesis.

3. Set the significance level

The significance level is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
The significance level is commonly set at 0.05.

4. Calculate the test statistic and corresponding P-value

The test statistic is calculated using a formula with the means and deviations. The test
statistic usually examines associations between variables or compares groups. The P-
value is determined from the test statistic result. The P-value is the probability of finding
the observed results when the null hypothesis is true.
 This is how to interpret hypothesis testing results:

● Evaluate the test results and apply your decision rule.

● Depending on the value of the test statistic, either reject or accept the null
hypothesis.

Example hypothesis test

Suppose you wanted to test the healing power of peppermint essential oil. The
hypothesis test will look like this:

● *State the null hypothesis. Peppermint essential oil doesn't affect anxiety
symptoms.*

● *State the alternative hypothesis. Peppermint essential oil alleviates symptoms of

anxiety.*

● *Set the significance level. The significance level is .25. A level of .25 allows for a
better chance at proving the alternative hypothesis.*

● *Calculate the P-value. The P-value is .05.*

Hypothesis test conclusion

One group of people was provided with peppermint essential oil, and the other group
was provided with a placebo. The members of both groups self report their levels of
anxiety, and the difference between the groups is statistically significant with a P-value
of .05. The P-value is well below the significance level of .25. It is concluded that the
study supports the alternative hypothesis; peppermint essential oil can alleviate the
symptoms of anxiety.
 How to write a hypothesis

While there are varying types of hypotheses, every hypothesis forms similarly. Use these
steps to write a hypothesis:

1. Make an observation

All hypotheses begin with an observation of a phenomenon. Start by recognizing a

pattern or noticing the effect of a certain stimulus and identifying what that information
might mean. This step establishes the background knowledge that you will base the
hypothesis on.

For example, if you notice a specific break room snack disappearing more quickly than
others, you might predict that more people in the office would choose that snack over
another.

2. Ask a question

After identifying the subject of your hypothesis, the next step is to ask the question that
your hypothesis will try to answer. This question needs to be specific enough to have a
logical result and also must be testable within your abilities. Once you ask a question,
you can then make a prediction that potentially answers your question, which serves as
the preliminary statement of your hypothesis.

For example, you might ask why more people take breaks earlier in the day than later
after noticing a trend at the office.

3. Conduct some initial research

As soon as you know the question you want to answer and the prediction you want to
prove or disprove, research the details surrounding your hypothesis. While the question
and prediction might have a basis in information you already know, additional details
might arise during testing that you did not consider beforehand. By doing some research
before writing your hypothesis, you can avoid making assumptions that earlier
experiments have already disproved and ensure your hypothesis is original.

One example is the hypothesis that employees work faster when the office is at a lower
temperature because a previously conducted experiment finds this hypothesis untrue.

4. Formulate your hypothesis

After collecting background information and making a prediction based on the question
you want to answer, you can plan a statement that lays out your variables, subjects and
predicted outcome. Written as either an "if/then" or declarative statement, your
hypothesis should include the prediction you want to test and relate to your original
observation. Once you have considered all the previous steps and incorporated them
into your hypothesis, you are ready to put together an experiment and test your
hypothesis to determine whether it is true or false.

5. Write a null hypothesis

A null hypothesis is an additional prediction that says there is no relationship between

the two variables being tested. Null hypotheses are very useful in statistical testing, but it
can be helpful to form one in any situation where you are creating and testing a
hypothesis. This prediction comes from your original hypothesis but states that the
variables you are considering are not related.

Null hypotheses are especially helpful when you disprove your original hypothesis after
testing, as comparing your own results to a null result can direct how you revise your
original hypothesis. One example of a null hypothesis might be "Coffee does not affect
employee productivity."

Null hypothesis

A null hypothesis claims that the original hypothesis is false by showing no relationship
between the variables.

What are type 1 and type 2 errors

Type 1 and type 2 errors both refer to incorrect determinations about a null hypothesis,
but they differ in what the researcher decides to be true or false about the hypothesis. A
type 1 error, also called a false positive, is when a researcher rejects a null hypothesis
that is true and decides there is a statistically significant difference that doesn't exist. A
type 2 error is the inverse of type 1. Also known as a false negative, it occurs when a
researcher does not reject the null hypothesis when the alternative hypothesis is true.
For example, in a court case, the null hypothesis would be that the defendant is innocent
until proven guilty, and the alternative hypothesis would be that they're guilty. There are
four possible outcomes with respect to the true nature of the case:

● True negative: Found innocent in court and being innocent in fact

● False positive: Found guilty in court but being innocent in fact
● False negative: Found innocent in court but being guilty in fact
● True positive: Found guilty in court and being guilty in fact

For the above example, the second and third outcomes are type 1 and type 2 errors,
respectively. In the false positive, the jury incorrectly rejects the null hypothesis that
states the defendant is innocent. In the false negative, they incorrectly fail to reject the
null hypothesis.

Why do type 1 errors occur

There are two factors that commonly contribute to the occurrence of type 1 errors:

● Chance

Hypothesis testing is never 100% certain, so there's always the possibility of drawing
incorrect conclusions from available data. Typically, the data comes from a sample
population, a relatively small selection of individuals intended to stand in for a larger
demographic. Sometimes, the data that sample populations generate skews toward a
conclusion that doesn't necessarily represent the interests of the whole. This is a
variable that researchers cannot control, but they can help to mitigate it by selecting
larger samples.

● Malpractice

Sometimes, type 1 errors occur because of improper research practices. For example,
researchers can unknowingly skew the results of a test by ending it too early. They might
feel they have enough data, although standard practice would recommend they continue
the test. Alternatively, they may settle on a conclusion despite failing to attain the
appropriate level of statistical significance. Researchers can avoid type 1 conclusions
stemming from malpractice by following through with research protocols and ensuring
their practices are sound.
 Why do type 2 errors occur

The primary factor that contributes to the occurrence of type 2 errors is sample size.
With a larger sample size, there's a greater possibility of detecting differences in a
statistical test. For example, if you wish to test whether college students feel positively
or negatively about a specific product, a group of three people can express only two-to-
one variety or none at all. In comparison, a sample of 1,000 is more likely to draw a wide
variety of opinions and thus be more accurately reflective of the larger population.

The importance of type 1 & type 2 errors

Type 1 and type 2 errors are significant because of the implications they have in real-
world applications. Type 1 errors typically lead to unnecessary use of resources for no
gain. For instance, if a medical researcher commits a type 1 error with regard to the
efficacy of a novel treatment, they can validate research and techniques that are faulty,
potentially leading to production of a drug that provides no relief.

Type 2 errors are significant in that they can prevent allocation of resources and
implementation of actions that are necessary. For example, when screening a patient for
a disease, a false negative can suggest that the patient is healthy when, in fact, they need
medical intervention.

Example of a type 1 error

A medical researcher is testing the efficacy of a home remedy for headaches. The null
hypothesis is that the home remedy has no effect on headaches, while the alternative
hypothesis is that it does heal headaches. The researcher recruits a sample population
of 20 patients with chronic headaches and administers the remedy to half of them over
the course of one month. The half that doesn't receive the remedy continues to
experience chronic headaches, while six members of the remaining half have stopped
having headaches.

Based on the above findings, the researcher rejects the null hypothesis. However, given
the small number of those who experienced relief, there may be doubt as to whether it
was the remedy or an unrelated factor that improved the condition of the six members. If
those six members were using other headache treatments along with the remedy being
tested, it's likely that the researcher committed a type 1 error.

Example of a type 2 error

An online retailer wants to know whether making design changes to their website can
help increase sales. The null hypothesis is that design changes have no impact on sales,
while the alternative hypothesis is the opposite. The retailer conducts an A/B test,
whereby they compare two versions of the site, the existing version and the updated
version. For three days, they monitor sales based on the existing version. Then, for the
following three days, they introduce the new version and see how it affects sales. At the
end of six days, they see no significant change in sales figures.

However, it's possible that extending the periods of observation for each version of the
site would have resulted in a statistically significant difference. If the retailer had
monitored sales for one month each and noticed an increase in sales in the second
month, they would have committed a type 2 error by wrongly accepting the null
hypothesis.