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Exponential Smoothing
Exponential smoothing was first suggested in the statistical literature without reference to previous work by Robert Goodell Brown
in 1956 and then expanded by Charles C. Holt in 1957. Exponential smoothing is a broadly accurate principle for smoothing time
series data using the exponential window function. The controlling input of the exponential smoothing calculation is defined as the
smoothing factor or the smoothing constant.
As we know that, in the simple moving average, the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions
(https://byjus.com/maths/exponential-functions/) are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily
learned and easily applied method for making some determination based on prior assumptions by the user, such as seasonality.
Exponential smoothing is generally used for the analysis of time-series data.
B
1 = x1-x0
For t>1,
Here,
st = smoothed statistic, it is the simple weighted average of current observation xt
Here,
st = smoothed statistic, it is the simple weighted average of current observation xt
Example problem
The sales of a magazine in a stall for the previous 10 months are given below.
Month Sales
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January 30
February 25
March 35
April 25
May 20
June 30
July 35
August 40
September 30
October 45
Calculate the simple exponential smoothing taking α =0.3 for the above data.
Solution:
α =0.3
January 30 30.00
February 25 30.00
March 35 28.50
April 25 30.45
May 20 14.1
June 30 15.87
July 35 20.109
August 40 24.5763
September 30 29.20341
October 45 29.442387
November – 34.1096709
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