You are on page 1of 125

ECO108: Logic and Scientific Methods

Lecture I

A Brief Introduction to Logic

Shraman Banerjee
Department of Economics
School of Humanities and Social Sciences
Shiv Nadar University

August 26, 2020

August 26, 2020 1 / 91


This lecture is based on material borrowed from:

1. Alfred Tarski: Introduction to Logic and the Methodology of


Deductive Sciences

and

2. P.D.Magnus: forall x: An Introduction to Formal Logic

3. Patrick J Hurley: A Concise Introduction to Logic

August 26, 2020 2 / 91


What is Logic?

What is Logic?

Science of evaluating arguments.


It teaches us to distinguish ‘good’ arguments from ‘bad’ arguments.

August 26, 2020 3 / 91


What is Logic?

What is Logic?

Science of evaluating arguments.


It teaches us to distinguish ‘good’ arguments from ‘bad’ arguments.

August 26, 2020 3 / 91


What is Logic?

What is Logic?

Science of evaluating arguments.


It teaches us to distinguish ‘good’ arguments from ‘bad’ arguments.

August 26, 2020 3 / 91


Arguments

Arguments
In this context it is important to understand what we mean by an argument.
Let us start with an example:
Robin is from Coorg.
People from Coorg are generally not vegetarians.
∴ Robin is not a vegetarian.
The first two sentences are written to provide a justification for believing the
third sentence. If we want to convince someone that ‘Robin is not a
vegetarian’, we can provide him/her with the first two information.
Thus an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which try to provide reasons to believe one of the others. In
the example above, the first two sentences try to convince us about that Robin
is not vegetarian.
Is this an valid or strong argument? To answer this question we need to
understand the meaning of validity. One also needs to understand the
difference between validity/strength of an argument in logic and the same in
everyday use of the term. We will cross that bridge later (in the section titled
Evaluating Arguments.)

August 26, 2020 4 / 91


Arguments

Arguments
In this context it is important to understand what we mean by an argument.
Let us start with an example:
Robin is from Coorg.
People from Coorg are generally not vegetarians.
∴ Robin is not a vegetarian.
The first two sentences are written to provide a justification for believing the
third sentence. If we want to convince someone that ‘Robin is not a
vegetarian’, we can provide him/her with the first two information.
Thus an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which try to provide reasons to believe one of the others. In
the example above, the first two sentences try to convince us about that Robin
is not vegetarian.
Is this an valid or strong argument? To answer this question we need to
understand the meaning of validity. One also needs to understand the
difference between validity/strength of an argument in logic and the same in
everyday use of the term. We will cross that bridge later (in the section titled
Evaluating Arguments.)

August 26, 2020 4 / 91


Arguments

Arguments
In this context it is important to understand what we mean by an argument.
Let us start with an example:
Robin is from Coorg.
People from Coorg are generally not vegetarians.
∴ Robin is not a vegetarian.
The first two sentences are written to provide a justification for believing the
third sentence. If we want to convince someone that ‘Robin is not a
vegetarian’, we can provide him/her with the first two information.
Thus an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which try to provide reasons to believe one of the others. In
the example above, the first two sentences try to convince us about that Robin
is not vegetarian.
Is this an valid or strong argument? To answer this question we need to
understand the meaning of validity. One also needs to understand the
difference between validity/strength of an argument in logic and the same in
everyday use of the term. We will cross that bridge later (in the section titled
Evaluating Arguments.)

August 26, 2020 4 / 91


Arguments

Arguments
In this context it is important to understand what we mean by an argument.
Let us start with an example:
Robin is from Coorg.
People from Coorg are generally not vegetarians.
∴ Robin is not a vegetarian.
The first two sentences are written to provide a justification for believing the
third sentence. If we want to convince someone that ‘Robin is not a
vegetarian’, we can provide him/her with the first two information.
Thus an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which try to provide reasons to believe one of the others. In
the example above, the first two sentences try to convince us about that Robin
is not vegetarian.
Is this an valid or strong argument? To answer this question we need to
understand the meaning of validity. One also needs to understand the
difference between validity/strength of an argument in logic and the same in
everyday use of the term. We will cross that bridge later (in the section titled
Evaluating Arguments.)

August 26, 2020 4 / 91


Arguments

Arguments
In this context it is important to understand what we mean by an argument.
Let us start with an example:
Robin is from Coorg.
People from Coorg are generally not vegetarians.
∴ Robin is not a vegetarian.
The first two sentences are written to provide a justification for believing the
third sentence. If we want to convince someone that ‘Robin is not a
vegetarian’, we can provide him/her with the first two information.
Thus an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which try to provide reasons to believe one of the others. In
the example above, the first two sentences try to convince us about that Robin
is not vegetarian.
Is this an valid or strong argument? To answer this question we need to
understand the meaning of validity. One also needs to understand the
difference between validity/strength of an argument in logic and the same in
everyday use of the term. We will cross that bridge later (in the section titled
Evaluating Arguments.)

August 26, 2020 4 / 91


Arguments

Other Examples:

Any natural number divisible by 6 is also divisible by 3. 17 is a natural number that


is not divisible by 3. Hence, 17 is also not divisible by 6.

In absence of an externality, a price ceiling leads to loss of economic efficiency. A


social planner should always design policies so as to minimize welfare loss due to
economic inefficiency. Hence, social planners should refrain from implementing price
ceiling policies.

August 26, 2020 5 / 91


Arguments

Other Examples:

Any natural number divisible by 6 is also divisible by 3. 17 is a natural number that


is not divisible by 3. Hence, 17 is also not divisible by 6.

In absence of an externality, a price ceiling leads to loss of economic efficiency. A


social planner should always design policies so as to minimize welfare loss due to
economic inefficiency. Hence, social planners should refrain from implementing price
ceiling policies.

August 26, 2020 5 / 91


Arguments

Since private property helps people define themselves, since it frees people from
mundane cares of daily subsistence, and since it is finite, no individual should
accumulate so much property that others are prevented from accumulating the
necessities of life

Leon P. Baradat: Political Ideologies, Their Origins and Impact.

August 26, 2020 6 / 91


Arguments

Modern Science has shown that the lumping together of individuals into a few
sharply marked off classes is a superficial view of man, not worthy of serious
considerations. Consequently, the utilization of qualities of individuals is
incompatible with their stratification by classes, since qualities of individuals are so
variable. Chaturvarnya must fail for the very reason for which Plato’s Republic must
fail-namely, that it is not possible to pigeon men into holes according to class.

Dr. B. R. Ambedkar: Annihilation of Caste

All the examples given above seem to satisfy the definition of argument we stated
earlier: an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which claim to provide reasons to believe one of the
others.

August 26, 2020 7 / 91


Arguments

Modern Science has shown that the lumping together of individuals into a few
sharply marked off classes is a superficial view of man, not worthy of serious
considerations. Consequently, the utilization of qualities of individuals is
incompatible with their stratification by classes, since qualities of individuals are so
variable. Chaturvarnya must fail for the very reason for which Plato’s Republic must
fail-namely, that it is not possible to pigeon men into holes according to class.

Dr. B. R. Ambedkar: Annihilation of Caste

All the examples given above seem to satisfy the definition of argument we stated
earlier: an argument can be thought of as a group of statements or logical
sentences, some of which claim to provide reasons to believe one of the
others.

August 26, 2020 7 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Sentences

While describing an argument in the last slide, we have used the term: ‘statement’
or ‘logical sentence’. The obvious question is: What does it mean? More
specifically: Does the term ‘sentence’ have the same meaning in logic as it does in a
natural language like English?
A statement or a logical sentence is a natural language sentence that is true or false
(but never both). Thus a statement is a declarative sentence or a sentence
component that can be used as a declarative sentence.
Examples:
13 is a prime number. TRUE
Shiv Nadar University is situated in the village of Chithera. TRUE
No Iranian citizen has ever won the Fields Medal in Mathematics. FALSE
2019 is not a leap year. TRUE
The fall of Bastille happened on 14 July 1889. FALSE

August 26, 2020 8 / 91


Arguments

Truth and Falsity are the two possible truth values of a statement. Thus in the
examples above, the truth value of the third and fifth sentence is false. The truth
value of the remaining three sentences is true. Note that our knowledge about the
truth value of the above sentences come from a realm outside of logic. However we
can have sentences who truth value follow from laws of logic, for example:

Barack Obama was either born in Hawaii or was not born in Hawaii.

This statement is always true. One does not require to know anything about Barack
Obama or Hawaii to state the truth value of this sentence. We will study such
sentences in detail later when we study Sentential Logic.

August 26, 2020 9 / 91


Arguments

It is not important to know the truth value of a sentence in order to identify it as a


logical sentence. The important task is to check if in presence of all relevant
information, the sentence can be assigned a truth value (either true or false). The
actual knowledge of the truth value is not necessary for identification.

Examples:

During the 2011 census, Chithera had a population of 7656 individuals.


Dakar is the capital city of Burkina Faso.
1729 is known as the Hardy-Ramanujam number.

All these are statements or logical sentences. We do not need to know the truth
value of sentences to infer that.

August 26, 2020 10 / 91


Arguments

It is not important to know the truth value of a sentence in order to identify it as a


logical sentence. The important task is to check if in presence of all relevant
information, the sentence can be assigned a truth value (either true or false). The
actual knowledge of the truth value is not necessary for identification.

Examples:

During the 2011 census, Chithera had a population of 7656 individuals.


Dakar is the capital city of Burkina Faso.
1729 is known as the Hardy-Ramanujam number.

All these are statements or logical sentences. We do not need to know the truth
value of sentences to infer that.

August 26, 2020 10 / 91


Arguments

It is not important to know the truth value of a sentence in order to identify it as a


logical sentence. The important task is to check if in presence of all relevant
information, the sentence can be assigned a truth value (either true or false). The
actual knowledge of the truth value is not necessary for identification.

Examples:

During the 2011 census, Chithera had a population of 7656 individuals.


Dakar is the capital city of Burkina Faso.
1729 is known as the Hardy-Ramanujam number.

All these are statements or logical sentences. We do not need to know the truth
value of sentences to infer that.

August 26, 2020 10 / 91


Arguments

The fact that a sentence must have a truth value often lead some people to think
that English sentences that have a structure of an opinion are not considered
sentences in logic. This is not true.
An English sentence that expresses a fact, for example,

Orhan Pamuk won the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2006.

is as much of a sentence in logic as is an sentence that expresses an opinion, for


example,

Pamuk is one of the greatest novelists of twenty-first century.

Depending on whose opinion it is, a sentence expressing an opinion must have a


unique truth value.

August 26, 2020 11 / 91


Arguments

Does that mean that all English language sentences are statements or logical
sentences. The answer is No.
Certain sentences from a natural language like English are not considered sentences
in logic. These are English sentences that do not have a truth value.
Questions:
How many years can some people exist before they’re allowed to be free?
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Is 2 a prime number?
Commands: Commands/orders framed as an imperative sentence is not a
sentence in logic. For example,
Get up, stand up: stand up for your rights!
Never simplify what is complicated or complicate what is simple.

However command are often not framed as imperatives. For example, You will
stand up for your rights. This is either true or false-you will either stand up for
your rights or not. Therefore, this is a sentence in logic.

August 26, 2020 12 / 91


Arguments

Requests/Suggestions: Requests/Suggestions framed as an imperative


sentence is not a sentence in logic.
Kindly contribute to the Chief Minister’s Disaster Relief Fund.
Please maintain silence in the library building.
Never stop following your dreams.

Exclamation: Exclamatory sentences are not considered logical sentences.


Welcome to Shiv Nadar University !
Congratulations, Ravish !

August 26, 2020 13 / 91


Arguments

Premise and Conclusion

Let’s refer to our definition of an argument again: an argument can be thought of as


a group of statements or logical sentences, some of which provide reasons
to believe one of the others. We have already established the meaning of the
term ‘statement’. We will now try to understand the last part of the definition.
In any argument, the statements that make up the argument we can be classified
into two groups: Premise and Conclusion.
Premises are those statements in an argument that sets forth the reason and
evidence, and together tries to establish the truth of some sentence that does not
belong to this group. Often the part of the argument that constitutes the premise, is
prefixed with one of these premise indicators1 :

since given that because


owing to for as
in that as indicated by for the reason that

1
This is definitely not an exhaustive list of premise indicators.
August 26, 2020 14 / 91
Arguments

Premise and Conclusion

Let’s refer to our definition of an argument again: an argument can be thought of as


a group of statements or logical sentences, some of which provide reasons
to believe one of the others. We have already established the meaning of the
term ‘statement’. We will now try to understand the last part of the definition.
In any argument, the statements that make up the argument we can be classified
into two groups: Premise and Conclusion.
Premises are those statements in an argument that sets forth the reason and
evidence, and together tries to establish the truth of some sentence that does not
belong to this group. Often the part of the argument that constitutes the premise, is
prefixed with one of these premise indicators1 :

since given that because


owing to for as
in that as indicated by for the reason that

1
This is definitely not an exhaustive list of premise indicators.
August 26, 2020 14 / 91
Arguments

The statement in an argument, whose truth value that argument tries to establish
using the evidence, is called the ‘Conclusion’. In other words, the part of an
argument that the evidence inherent in the argument is claiming to support is called
the conclusion.
Often the part of the argument that forms the conclusion, is prefixed with with one
of these conclusion indicators2 :

therefore thus we may infer


consequently so for this reason
hence implies that as a result

2
This is definitely not an exhaustive list of conclusion indicators.
August 26, 2020 15 / 91
Arguments

Example:
All Egyptians are Africans. Mohamed Salah is an Egyptian. Thus, Mohamed Salah
is an African.
In this argument the first two sentences are premises, while the last sentence (that
follows the conclusion indicator word -thus) is the conclusion. In this argument, the
premises ‘seem’ to support the conclusion, hence we can think of this as a ’good’
argument.

Example:
All Algerians are Africans. Thomas Sankara is a Burkinabe. Burkinabes are not
Algerians. Therefore, Thomas Sankara is not an African.
In this argument the first three sentences are premises, while the last sentence (that
follows the conclusion indicator word -therefore) is the conclusion. In this argument,
the premises do not ’seem’ to support the conclusion, hence we cannot think of this
as a ’good’ argument.

August 26, 2020 16 / 91


Arguments

Sometimes a single indicator word is used to identify more than one premise.
Example:
Since all Algerians are Africans and Karim Benzema is an Algerian, Karim
Benzema is an African.
In this argument the premise indicator word since goes with both ‘All Algerians are
Africans’ and ‘Karim Benzema is an Algerian’. These are the premises. By
elimination, the only part of the argument that is not a premise-‘Karim Benzama is
an African’, is the conclusion.

Example:
The country needs massive public investment in higher education, as human capital
is an key input in creation of a knowledge economy and the market fails to
internalize the positive externalities of education.
In this argument the premise indicator word as goes with both ‘Human capital is an
key input in creation of a knowledge economy’ and ‘The market fails to internalize
the positive externalities of education’. These are the premises. By elimination, the
only part of the argument that is not a premise-‘The country needs massive public
investment in higher education’, is the conclusion.

August 26, 2020 17 / 91


Arguments

It is often the case that an argument will have neither a premise indicator nor a
conclusion indicator. In such cases, one needs to find out the sentence that the
arguer is trying to prove.

Example:

The government need to make sufficient budgetary outlays for the National Rural
Employment Guarantee Scheme. Not only does the NREGS provide access to
employment (and income) to the most vulnerable sections of the society, research has
shown that it has secondary effects in the form of increasing wages of casual farm
labour. It has also has positive effects on nutritional intake, female labour force
participation and schooling outcomes of children.

In this argument, the first sentence constitutes the conclusion. All other statements
are premises. Like most arguments without indicator words, the conclusion is stated
first and the reasons for believing the conclusion are stated later.

August 26, 2020 18 / 91


Arguments

This argument can be restructured in a formal way where the conclusion appears at
the end of the argument.

P1 : NREGS provide access to employment (and income) to the most vulnerable


sections of the society.
P2 : Research has shown that it has secondary effects in the form of increasing wages
of casual farm labour.
P3 : NREGS positive effects on nutritional intake, female labour force participation
and schooling outcomes of children.
C: The government need to make sufficient budgetary outlays for the National
Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS).

August 26, 2020 19 / 91


Arguments

It is often the case that an argument will have sentences that are neither a premise
nor a conclusion. These sentences often introduce the topic of the argument.
Sometimes they are passing comments that do not have any specific purpose. Such
sentences are not a part of the argument.
Example:
In 2006, India launched the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme-the
largest public works program in the world. The government need to make sufficient
budgetary outlays for the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme. Not only
does the NREGS provide access to employment (and income) to the most vulnerable
sections of the society, research has shown that it has secondary effects in the form
of increasing wages of casual farm labour. It has also had positive effects on
nutritional intake, female labour force participation and schooling outcomes of
children. It will be a matter of great tragedy if such a celebrated program does not
receive the attention of policy makers.
In this argument, the second sentence constitutes the conclusion. The third and the
fourth sentence constitute the premise. The first sentences introduces the NREGS
to the reader. The last sentence is just a passing comment. Thus the first and the
last sentence are not a part of the argument.

August 26, 2020 20 / 91


Arguments

Two conditions need to be satisfied for a passage to be considered an argument:


Factual Claim: It is the claim that something is true. At least one of the
statements must claim to present evidence or reasoning. Deciding whether this
condition is satisfied falls outside the domain of logic.
Inferential Claim: There must exist a claim that the ’alleged’ evidence
supports or implies something. The inferential claim is hidden in the language,
structure and/or form of an argument. It is an objective feature of an
argument and is in no way related to the intentions of the arguer.
An inferential claim can be explicit (indicator words used in the argument) or
implicit (indicator words not used in the argument). We have seen examples of
implicit and explicit inferential claims earlier.

August 26, 2020 21 / 91


Arguments

Problems:
Question: Identify the conclusion. You might have to rephrase the conclusion to
capture the full intent of the person making the argument.
[Hurley. Exercise 1.1.2]
Since the good, according to Plato, is that which furthers a person’s real
interests, it follows that in any given case when the good is known, men will
seek it.

Avrum Stroll and Richard Popkin, Philosophy and the Human Spirit

If caste is eugenic in origin, then the origin of sub-castes must also be eugenic.
. . . If castes mean race, then differences of sub-castes cannot mean differences
of race, becaus sub-castes become ex-hypothesi sub-divisions of one and the
same race. Consequently the bar against intermarrying and inter-dining
between sub-castes cannot be for the purpose of maintaining purity of race or of
blood. If sub-castes cannot be eugenic in origin, there cannot be any substance
in the contention that caste is eugenic.

Dr. B. R. Ambedkar: Annihilation of Caste - An Undelivered Speech, 1936

August 26, 2020 22 / 91


Arguments

Problems:
Question: Identify the conclusion. You might have to rephrase the conclusion to
capture the full intent of the person making the argument.
[Hurley. Exercise 1.1.2]
Since the good, according to Plato, is that which furthers a person’s real
interests, it follows that in any given case when the good is known, men will
seek it.

Avrum Stroll and Richard Popkin, Philosophy and the Human Spirit

If caste is eugenic in origin, then the origin of sub-castes must also be eugenic.
. . . If castes mean race, then differences of sub-castes cannot mean differences
of race, becaus sub-castes become ex-hypothesi sub-divisions of one and the
same race. Consequently the bar against intermarrying and inter-dining
between sub-castes cannot be for the purpose of maintaining purity of race or of
blood. If sub-castes cannot be eugenic in origin, there cannot be any substance
in the contention that caste is eugenic.

Dr. B. R. Ambedkar: Annihilation of Caste - An Undelivered Speech, 1936

August 26, 2020 22 / 91


Arguments

Non-Arguments

To distinguish arguments from passages that are not arguments, we looks at


different kinds of non-arguments:
(A) Simple Non-Inferential Passages
Passages that lack an inferential claim, that is they lack a claim that something is
being proved. The statements included in such passages might well be premises or
conclusions for an argument, but in absence of an inferential claim in the passage,
they do not constitute a argument.
Non-Inferential Passages are often warnings, advice, statements of belief or opinion,
loosely connected statements or reports.

August 26, 2020 23 / 91


Arguments

- Warning:
Expression that tries to make another individual aware of a detrimental situation.
- Beware of the pollution levels in the city of Delhi. Make sure you are carrying a
mask when you reach the city.
- Always be cautious, never fall prey to propaganda in the garb of news.
- Advice:
Recommendation about a course of action.
- Whenever you are in doubt, or when the self becomes too much with you, apply the
following test. Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man whom you may
have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to
him . Will he gain anything by it? Will it restore him to a control over his own life
and destiny? In other words, will it lead to swaraj for the hungry and spiritually
starving millions? Then you will find your doubts and your self melt away.

M.K.Gandhi (1948)

August 26, 2020 24 / 91


Arguments

- Opinion:
Expression that describes or states the beliefs of an individual. No inferential claim
in the expression.
- I believe that Gandhi’s views were the most enlightened of all the political men in
our time. We should strive to do things in his spirit: not to use violence in fighting
for our cause, but by non-participation in anything you believe is evil.

Albert Einstein

- I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein’s brain
than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton
fields and sweatshops.

Stephen J Gould

August 26, 2020 25 / 91


Arguments

- Report:
A group of statements that convey information about some event or topic.
The Royal Indian Navy (RIN) revolt started on 18 February 1946 in Bombay. The
naval ratings on HMIS Talwar protested against the poor quality of food and racial
discrimination by British officers. The protest spread rapidly to the Castle and Fort
barracks on shore, and to 22 ships in Bombay harbour. By the following evening, a
naval central strike committee had been elected. The mutineers took out a procession
in Bombay, holding aloft a portrait of Subhas Bose.

(Srinath Raghavan: Revisiting the 1946 Royal Indian Navy Mutiny. Livemint
03/04/2017)

August 26, 2020 26 / 91


Arguments

- Report about Arguments:


In a recently published article in Journal of Climate Science and Policy, two climate
scientists state “ Since carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is increasing
steadily and there is no climate agreement among nations in sight, the question is no
longer whether the world will witness a 1.5 degree C rise in temperature but when
will it cross that mark”
This is not an argument. The author reports arguments made by two climate
scientists. In case we interpret such passages to be ‘containing arguments’, one
should make it clear that the arguments belong to someone the author of the
passage is reporting.

August 26, 2020 27 / 91


Arguments

(B) Expository Messages


An expository passage starts with a topic sentence and is follow by one or more
topic sentence that develops the topic sentence. If expository passages lack an
inferential claim (that is, the passage does not try to prove the topic sentence), then
they are not arguments.
Example:
There are three familiar states of matter: solid, liquid, and gas. Solid objects
ordinarily maintain their shape and volume regardless of their location. A liquid
occupies a definite volume, but assumes the shape of the occupied portion of its
container. A gas maintains neither shape nor volume. It expands to fill completely
whatever container it is in.

John W. Hill and Doris K. Kolb, Chemistry for Changing Times, 7th ed.

August 26, 2020 28 / 91


Arguments

(B) Expository Messages


An expository passage starts with a topic sentence and is follow by one or more
topic sentence that develops the topic sentence. If expository passages lack an
inferential claim (that is, the passage does not try to prove the topic sentence), then
they are not arguments.
Example:
There are three familiar states of matter: solid, liquid, and gas. Solid objects
ordinarily maintain their shape and volume regardless of their location. A liquid
occupies a definite volume, but assumes the shape of the occupied portion of its
container. A gas maintains neither shape nor volume. It expands to fill completely
whatever container it is in.

John W. Hill and Doris K. Kolb, Chemistry for Changing Times, 7th ed.

August 26, 2020 28 / 91


Arguments

Example:
Many people who favour freedom of choice reject any kind of paternalism. They want
the government to let citizens choose for themselves. The standard policy advice that
stems from this way of thinking is to give people as many choices as possible and
then let them choose what they like the best . . .

Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein: Nudge

Marx’s dark prophecy came no closer to being realized than Ricardo’s. In the last
third of the 19th century, wages finally began to increase: the improvement in the
purchasing power of workers spread everywhere, and this changed the situation
radically, even if extreme inequalities persisted and in some respects continued to
increase until World War I.

Thomas Piketty: Capital in the Twenty First Century

August 26, 2020 29 / 91


Arguments

Unlike non-inferential passages, there are situations in which an expository message


can be considered to be an argument. If the purpose of statements following the
topic sentence is not only to flesh out the topic sentence but also to prove the topic
sentence, then the expository passage can be considered an argument.

August 26, 2020 30 / 91


Arguments

(C) Illustrations
An expression with one or examples that clarifies the meaning of a term or explains
a process.
Example:
A republic is defined to be a country without a king or queen, usually governed by
elected representatives of the people. For example, the first French Republic was
founded in 1792 during the French Revolution. Similarly, India has been a republic
since 1950. Ethiopia, Bangladesh, Iran, Finland are some other examples of
republics.
Example:
Chemical elements, as well as compounds, can be represented by molecular formulas.
Thus Oxygen is represented by O2 , water by H2 O and common salt by N aCl.

August 26, 2020 31 / 91


Arguments

However there are situations in which illustrations have an inferential claim and
hence can be considered as arguments:
Example:
Not all member nations of the United Nations are republics. Bhutan is not a republic
and yet a member of the United Nations.
In this case the example proves the first statement. Hence, it should be considered
an argument.

August 26, 2020 32 / 91


Arguments

(D) Explanations:
An explanation is an expression that tries to shed light on an event or a
phenomenon that is usually accepted as a fact. An explanation is a rationale in
which the reason presents a cause of (not evidence) some fact represented by the
conclusion. An explanation answers the question Why is it so? rather than the
question How do we know?
Example:
Leaves are green in colour because they have green chloroplasts (organelles that carry
out photosynthesis) and chloroplasts are green because they contain the green
pigment chlorophyll in their thylakoid membranes.
International Labour Day is celebrated on 1st of May every year, in order to
commemorate the Chicago labour demonstrations of 1884, in demand of a eight hour
working day that happened in the first week of May.

August 26, 2020 33 / 91


Arguments

Every explanations consists of two distinct parts:


(i) Explanandum: Statement that describes the event or phenomenon to be
explained.
(ii) Explanans: Groups of statements that do the explaining.
In the first example, the explanandum is Leaves are green in colour and the
explanans is they have green chloroplasts (organelles that carry out photosynthesis)
and chloroplasts are green because they contain the green pigment chlorophyll in
their thylakoid membranes.
In an explanation the purpose of the explanans is to shed light on the
explanandums, not to prove the explanandum is true. The explanandum is usually
an accepted fact and the work of the explanans is to show why that is the case. In
the example, everyone knows that leaves are green. The explanation is not trying to
prove that leaves are green, rather it is try to show why it is green.

August 26, 2020 34 / 91


Arguments

August 26, 2020 35 / 91


Arguments

In order to distinguish between an argument and an explanation, the first step is to


identify the statement that constitutes the explanandum or the conclusion. If this
statement is an accepted fact, and the remaining statements sheds light on this
statement, then the passage is a explanation.
Antibiotic drugs should not be overused because overuse causes bacteria or other
microbes to resist the effects of antibiotic treatment.
Now the purpose of this passage could be to prove it to people who do no accept the
fact, and to shed light on it for people who do accept it. To identify it as an
argument one needs to know the people towards whom this information is directed.

August 26, 2020 36 / 91


Arguments

E) Conditional Sentences
Conditional statements are ‘if . . . , then . . . statements.
Examples:
If Saikat voted for Sanders in the 2016 primaries, then he has not voted for Buttigieg
in the 2020 primaries.

If Atika lives in Karol Bagh, then she lives in New Delhi.


The statement immediately following ’if’ is called antecedent, the statement after
’then’ is called consequent. Occasionally the order of antecedent and consequent is
changed in an conditional sentence.

Atika lives in New Delhi if she lives in Karol Bagh.


There need not be any meaningful relation between the antecedent and the
consequent. Thus the following is also a conditional statement:

If Saikat voted for Sanders in the 2016 primaries, then Karol Bagh is located in Delhi.

August 26, 2020 37 / 91


Arguments

Conditional sentences are not arguments because the fail to fulfill the criteria for an
argument stated earlier. In a conditional sentence , there is no claim that either the
antecedent or consequent presents evidence. The is no assertion that the antecedent
or consequent is true. Rather a conditional sentence has an assertion that if the
antecedent is true, the consequent is true as well.
However the inferential content of a conditional sentence can be re-expressed in the
form of an argument. The conditional sentence

If the French are Europeans, then Jean is an European.

can be written as:

All French are Europeans. Therefore, Jean is an European.

August 26, 2020 38 / 91


Arguments

While no single conditional statement is an argument, a conditional statement can


be the premise or the conclusion (or both) of an argument.
Example:
If Atika lives in Karol Bagh, then she lives in Delhi. Atika does not live in Delhi.
Therefore, Atika does not live in Karol Bagh.
If Sukhvinder lives in Motihari, he lives in Champaran. If Sukhvinder lives in
Champaran, then he lives in Bihar. Thefore, if Sukhvinder lives in Motihari, then he
lives in Bihar.

August 26, 2020 39 / 91


Arguments

Problems

Question: Which of the following are arguments?


The banana leaf is used by the Malayali not only to serve food. It is often used
as a lid while cooking. Gourmets believe that it enhances the flavor of a dish,
especially when preparing a vegetable dish like avial. It is also used to wrap
food before steaming or grilling.
Vijayan Kannampilly: The Essential Kerala Cookbook
(In Malayali cuisine) traditionally, meat, poultry and fish were cut rather small
as compared to western cuisine. There are three obvious reasons behind this
method. First, none of these is eaten as a main dish. Secondly, the small size
of pieces allow for better marinating and faster cooking. Finally, the economy
imposed by the size permitted a larger number of people to partake of the dish.
Vijayan Kannampilly: The Essential Kerala Cookbook

August 26, 2020 40 / 91


Arguments

Prawn Malaikari is a popular Bengali dish. It is so called because the use of


spices in this dish is similar to the use of spices in Malayasian cuisine.
It is incorrect to characterize India as a vegetarian nation. According to the
68th Round consumption survey, conducted by the National Sample Survey
Organization, only 37 percent Indians do not report the consumption of
non-vegetarian food. In states like Assam, Kerala and West Bengal, the
percentage of households reporting consumption of non-vegetarian food is more
than 90%.
While it is true that majority of Indians are not vegetarians, it is also true that
compared to all other countries India has the highest proportion of vegetarians.
India has more vegetarians than all other countries put together. Thus, it is
not incorrect to identify India as a vegetarian nation.

August 26, 2020 41 / 91


Arguments

Deductive and Inductive Arguments:

All arguments must have an inferential claim. However arguments can be classified
on the basis of the strength of the inferential claim.
A deductive argument is one which makes the claim that it is impossible for the
conclusion to be false given that all the premises are true.
Example:

All economists are social scientists.


Atif is an economist.
Therefore, Atif is a social scientist.

August 26, 2020 43 / 91


Arguments

Deductive and Inductive Arguments:

All arguments must have an inferential claim. However arguments can be classified
on the basis of the strength of the inferential claim.
A deductive argument is one which makes the claim that it is impossible for the
conclusion to be false given that all the premises are true.
Example:

All economists are social scientists.


Atif is an economist.
Therefore, Atif is a social scientist.

August 26, 2020 43 / 91


Arguments

Deductive and Inductive Arguments:

All arguments must have an inferential claim. However arguments can be classified
on the basis of the strength of the inferential claim.
A deductive argument is one which makes the claim that it is impossible for the
conclusion to be false given that all the premises are true.
Example:

All economists are social scientists.


Atif is an economist.
Therefore, Atif is a social scientist.

August 26, 2020 43 / 91


Arguments

A inductive argument is one which makes the claim that it is improbable for the
conclusion to be false given that all the premises are true.
Example:

Most nations, with a system of parliamentary democracy, have abolished the


institution of monarchy.
Ethiopia has a parliamentary democracy.
Therefore, probably Ethiopia has abolished monarchy.

August 26, 2020 44 / 91


Arguments

A inductive argument is one which makes the claim that it is improbable for the
conclusion to be false given that all the premises are true.
Example:

Most nations, with a system of parliamentary democracy, have abolished the


institution of monarchy.
Ethiopia has a parliamentary democracy.
Therefore, probably Ethiopia has abolished monarchy.

August 26, 2020 44 / 91


Arguments

Certain objective features of an argument can help us to classify them as deductive


or inductive arguments. They are as follows:
1) Presence of specific indicator words:
Inductive indicators:

probably improbable plausible


implausible likely unlikely

Deductive indicators:

certainly absolutely definitely

Indicator words can be useful in classifying arguments. However if this rule comes in
conflict with any of the two rules mentioned afterward, we should ignore the rule of
indicator words. Often arguers use the term ‘it certainly follows that’ even while
making an argument that is inductive in nature. This is simply for rhetorical
purposes. Similarly, people often use the word ‘deduce’ while making inductive
arguments.

August 26, 2020 45 / 91


Arguments

2) Strength of the Inferential Link:


If the inferential claim is such that the conclusion follows necessarily from the
premise, it is an deductive argument. On the other hand, if the conclusion does not
follow with strict necessity, but does so probabilistically, the argument is inductive.
Example:

All economists are social scientists.


Atif is an economist.
Therefore, Atif is a social scientist.

Most historians have read ‘The Making of the English Working Class’.
Shekhar is a historian.
Therefore, Shekhar has read ‘The Making of the English Working Class’.

The first argument is deductive. The conclusion follows with strict necessity from
the premise. If the premise is true, it is impossible that Atif is not a social scientist.
The second argument is inductive, the conclusion does not follow with strict
necessity. It follows with some degree of probability. If the premise is true, it is
improbable that Shekhar has not read ‘The Making of the English Working Class’.

August 26, 2020 46 / 91


Arguments

(3) Character or Form of the Argument:


Often arguments do not have indicator words to suggest the nature of the argument.
In many cases, the conclusion of these argument do not follow either with strict
necessity or probabilistically from the premise. Thus, in such case the two rules of
classification mentioned earlier, is of no use. In these cases the character or form of
the argumentation is of importance.
Deductive Argument Forms:
a) Argument based on Mathematics
b) Argument from Definition
c) Categorical Syllogism
d) Hypothetical Syllogism
e) Disjunctive Syllogism
We are going to discuss each one of these in detail.

August 26, 2020 47 / 91


Arguments

Inductive Argument Forms:


a) Prediction
b) Argument from Analogy
c) Generalization
d) Argument from authority
f) Causal Inference
We are going to discuss each one of these in detail.

August 26, 2020 48 / 91


Arguments

The forms of inductive arguments mentioned are not mutually exclusive.


Causal inferences often seen like predictions.
Arguments from geometry are always deductive.
Arguments in science can be both deductive and inductive.
It is often claimed:
Deductive: General −→ Particular
Inductive: Particular −→ General
One should not take this claim very seriously.

August 26, 2020 49 / 91


Arguments

Example:

Sweden is not a republic.


Norway is not a republic.
Denmark is not a republic.
Therefore, no Scandinavian country is a republic.

Deductive, but Particular −→ General.

Example:

ECO101 is an university wide elective course.


ECO101 is a course offered by the Department of Economics.
Therefore, ECO101 is an university wide elective course offered by the Department
of Economics.

Deductive, but Particular −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 50 / 91


Arguments

Example:

Sweden is not a republic.


Norway is not a republic.
Denmark is not a republic.
Therefore, no Scandinavian country is a republic.

Deductive, but Particular −→ General.

Example:

ECO101 is an university wide elective course.


ECO101 is a course offered by the Department of Economics.
Therefore, ECO101 is an university wide elective course offered by the Department
of Economics.

Deductive, but Particular −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 50 / 91


Arguments

Example:

Sweden is not a republic.


Norway is not a republic.
Denmark is not a republic.
Therefore, no Scandinavian country is a republic.

Deductive, but Particular −→ General.

Example:

ECO101 is an university wide elective course.


ECO101 is a course offered by the Department of Economics.
Therefore, ECO101 is an university wide elective course offered by the Department
of Economics.

Deductive, but Particular −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 50 / 91


Arguments

Example:

Sweden is not a republic.


Norway is not a republic.
Denmark is not a republic.
Therefore, no Scandinavian country is a republic.

Deductive, but Particular −→ General.

Example:

ECO101 is an university wide elective course.


ECO101 is a course offered by the Department of Economics.
Therefore, ECO101 is an university wide elective course offered by the Department
of Economics.

Deductive, but Particular −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 50 / 91


Arguments

Example:

The Indian National Congress has never won the Ponnani Lok Sabha seat in the
past 17 Lok Sabha elections.
Therefore, INC is not going to win the Ponnani Lok Sabha seat in the next Lok
Sabha election.

Inductive, but General −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 51 / 91


Arguments

Example:

The Indian National Congress has never won the Ponnani Lok Sabha seat in the
past 17 Lok Sabha elections.
Therefore, INC is not going to win the Ponnani Lok Sabha seat in the next Lok
Sabha election.

Inductive, but General −→ Particular.

August 26, 2020 51 / 91


Arguments

Digression: The Parable of Russel’s Inductivist Turkey

‘This turkey found that, on his first morning at the turkey farm, he was fed at 9
a.m. However, being a good inductivist, he did not jump to conclusions. He waited
until he had collected a large number of observations of the fact that he was fed at 9
a.m., and he made these observations under a wide variety of circumstances, on
Wednesdays and Thursdays, on warm days and cold days, on rainy days and dry
days. Each day, he added another observation statement to his list. Finally, his
inductivist conscience was satisfied and he carried out an inductive inference to
conclude, “I am always fed at 9 a.m.”. Alas, this conclusion was shown to be false in
no uncertain manner when, on Christmas eve, instead of being fed, he had his throat
cut. An inductive inference with true premises has led to a false conclusion.’
(Alan Chalmers: What is this thing called Science)

August 26, 2020 52 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Evaluating Arguments:

As stated earlier, an argument makes two kinds of claims: a Factual Claim and
an Inferential Claim. Evaluation of an argument implies evaluation of both
this claim.
It is the evaluation of the inferential claim that is of primary importance in
logic. An inferential claim is the claim that the premise of the argument
provide evidence or proof for the conclusion. If the conclusion does not follow
from the premise, then an argument is worthless.
Only when an argument is able to pass the inferential claim test, should we
test the factual claim. In other words, only if the reasoning in an argument is
good, should we check if the premise is true.

August 26, 2020 53 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

(A) Evaluating Deductive Arguments:


As stated earlier, an deductive argument is an argument that makes the claim
that it is impossible for the conclusion to false if the premise of the argument
is true.
An deductive argument is said to be valid if this claim is true. In other words,
a valid deductive argument is an argument where it is impossible for the
conclusion to be false if the premise is true.
An deductive argument is said to be invalid if this claim is false. In other
words, a invalid deductive argument is an argument where it is possible for the
conclusion to be false if the premise is true. In such arguments, the conclusion
does not follow strictly from the premise even if they make that claim.
Thus a deductive argument is either valid or invalid but never both.
To test the inferential claim of an argument (that is to test for validity of a
deductive argument): we assume that the premises are true and then check if
given this assumption, it is possible for the conclusion to be false.

August 26, 2020 54 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example I:

All Algerians are Africans. Karim Benzema is an Algerian.


Thus, Karim Benzema is an African.

Let us assume that the premises are true.3 Now the question is: given this
assumption, is it possible for conclusion to be false? Stated alternatively: Is it
possible for Karim Benzama not to be an African if premises are assumed to be true?
We know that the first premise implies that Algerians (A1 ) is a subset of Africans
(A2 ), that is every element of A1 belongs to A2 . The second premise implies that
Karim Benzema is an element of A1 . It follows necessarily that Karim Benzema is
an element of A2 . It is impossible for Karim Benzama not be be an African (that is,
it is impossible that Karim Benzama does not belong to A2 ) because its is
impossible for a element to belong and not belong to a set at the same time. Thus is
is impossible for the conclusion to be false when the premise is true. Thus this is an
valid deductive argument.

3
For those of you who follow European football and studied geography seriously in school, this is an
easy assumption to make as you know that both the premises are true. Karim Benzema has dual
citizenship: Algerian and French. Algeria is a country in North Africa.
August 26, 2020 55 / 91
Evaluating Arguments:

Example II:

All Algerians are Asians. Mohamed Salah is an Algerian.


Thus, Mohamed Salah is an Asian.

Let us assume that the premises are true.4 Now the question is: given this
assumption, is it possible for conclusion to be false? Stated alternatively: Is it
possible for Mohamed Salah not to be an Asian if premises are assumed to be true?
Using the same reasoning used in Example I, we know that it is impossible for Md.
Salah not be be an Asian if the premises are true. Thus this is an valid deductive
argument.

4
Many of you know that both the premises are false, but you should ignore your knowledge of
geography and football and assume that they are true.
August 26, 2020 56 / 91
Evaluating Arguments:

Example III:

All Indians are Africans. Mohamed Salah is an Indian.


Thus, Mohamed Salah is an African.

Let us assume that the premises are true.5 Now the question is: given this
assumption, is it possible for conclusion to be false? Stated alternatively: Is it
possible for Mohamed Salah not to be an African if premises are assumed to be true?
Using the same reasoning used in Example I and Example II, we know that it is
impossible for Md. Salah not be be an African if the premises are true. Thus this is
an valid deductive argument.

5
Almost all of you know that both the premises are false,but assume that they are true.
August 26, 2020 57 / 91
Evaluating Arguments:

Example IV:

All Egyptians are Africans. Mohamed Salah is an African.


Thus, Mohamed Salah is an Egyptian.

Let us assume that the premises are true.6 Now the question is: given this
assumption, is it possible for conclusion to be false? Stated alternatively: Is it
possible for Mohamed Salah not to be an African if premises are assumed to be true?
It is indeed possible for the conclusion to be false even when the premises are true.
Suppose that the premises are true. The first premise means Egyptians (E) are a
subset of Africans (A). Suppose E ⊂ A . The second premise tells us that Md.
Salah is an element of A. But it is possible that Md. Salah is an element of A − E.
This is possible when both the premises are true. However Salah is not an Egyptian
if he is a element of A − E. So it is possible for the conclusion to be false. So this is
an invalid deductive argument.

6
We know that both the premises are true.
August 26, 2020 58 / 91
Evaluating Arguments:

The examples above reveals an important fact about the validity of arguments:
validity of an argument is not something that can be uniformly determined by the
truth value of the premises and the conclusions.
In Example I and Example IV, all the sentences that constitute the premises
and the conclusion are true statements. While the argument in Example I is
valid, the argument in Example IV is invalid.
In Example II, all the sentences that constitute the premises and the
conclusion are false statements. The argument in Example II is valid.
In Example III, the premises are false while the conclusion is true. The
argument is a valid deductive argument.
Validity of an argument is a feature of the relationship between the premises and
the conclusion. It is not determined by the truth value of premises and conclusion.

August 26, 2020 59 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

There is one situation in which the truth value of the premises and the conclusion
does determine the lack of validity of an argument. If the premises in an argument
is true but the conclusion is false, then the argument is invalid. The reason is as
follows: If the premise is actually true and the conclusion is actually false, it is
definitely possible for the conclusion to be false.
Example V:

All Algerians are Africans. Mohamed Salah is an African.


Thus, Mohamed Salah is an Algerian.

We know that the premises are true and the conclusion is false. Thus, without any
further investigation, we can state that the argument is invalid.

August 26, 2020 60 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Valid Invalid
True Premise, True Conclusion Example I Example IV
True Premise, False Conclusion Does Not Exist Example V
False Premise, True Conclusion Example III Example VI
False Premise, False Conclusion Example II Example VII

Example VI:

All Africans are Indians. Mohamed Salah is an Indian.


Thus, Mohamed Salah is an African.

Example VII:

All Africans are Algerians. Sunit Chhetri is an Algerian.


Thus, Sunil Chhetri is an African.

August 26, 2020 61 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Sound Argument:
A sound argument is a valid deductive argument with all true premises. An unsound
argument is a deductive argument that is either invalid or has one or more false
premises or both.

Sound Argument = Valid Argument + All True Premises

A valid argument is one where it is impossible for the premise to be true and
conclusion to be false simultaneously. In a sound argument the premise is true and a
sound argument is a valid argument. Thus the conclusion of a sound argument is
true.
Similarly, for valid argument to be unsound there must be some false premises.
However it should be noted that the false premise should be needed to establish
validity for a valid argument to be unsound. Ar argument having a conclusion
validly supported by the true premises, but having a superfluous false premise is still
a sound argument.

August 26, 2020 62 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

(B) Evaluating Inductive Arguments:


As stated earlier, an inductive argument is an argument that makes the claim
that it is improbable for the conclusion to false if the premise of the argument
is true.
An inductive argument is said to be strong if this claim is true. In other
words, a strong inductive argument is an argument where it is improbable for
the conclusion to be false if the premise is true.
An inductive argument is said to be weak if this claim is false. In other words,
a weak inductive argument is an argument where it is not improbable for the
conclusion to be false if the premise is true. In such arguments, the conclusion
does not probably follow strictly from the premise even if they make that claim.
(*) Thus a inductive argument is either strong or weak but never both.

August 26, 2020 63 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Inductive arguments are based on what is called uniformity of nature: the


future tends to replicate the past and regularities that exist in one spatial
region extend to other regions. This principle provides the basis for what we
expect to happen.
If monsoons have hit the Kerala coast in the period of May 25-June 10 for the
last 50 years, we expect that it will reach the Kerala coast at a similar time
next year. It is not impossible that the monsoon will reach at a time different
from this, but it is improbable.
Similarly if neem leaves taste bitter in Chithera, we expect that they will taste
bitter in the Upper East Side of New York as well.
To test the strength of an inductive argument we assume that the premises are
true and then check if given this assumption, it is probable for the conclusion
to be false. We do this by linking the premise with the regularities of our
experiential background.

August 26, 2020 64 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

If the argument is in the form of a causal inference, we link the information in


premise with known causal patterns.
If the argument is a generalization, we link the information in premise with
what we know about a representative sampling.
If the argument is based on signs, we link the information in premise with
what we know about a sign being trustworthy.

August 26, 2020 65 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example I: Prediction
If monsoons have hit the Kerala coast in the period of May-June for the last 50
years, we expect that in 2020 it will reach the Kerala coast during May or June. In
this argument the premise is actually true, so it is not difficult to assume they are
so. Uniformity of nature dictates that the conclusion is true. If in 2020 monsoons
reach Kerala before May or after June, that will be highly surprising. Thus it is
improbable that the conclusion will be false. Hence this is an example of a strong
inductive argument.

August 26, 2020 66 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example II: Prediction


If monsoons have hit the Kerala coast in the period of October-November for the last
50 years, we expect that in 2020 it will reach the Kerala coast during May or June.
In this argument the premise is false, but we assume it is true. Given that the
premise is true, uniformity of nature dictates that the conclusion is true. If the
premise is true and in 2020 monsoons reach Kerala before October or after
November, that will be highly surprising. Thus it is improbable that the conclusion
will be false. Hence this is an example of a strong inductive argument.

August 26, 2020 67 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example III: Prediction


Suppose some is making this argument just before the Industrial Revolution in
Britain:
For the last 1000 years the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has been stable
at around 280 ppmv. Thus in the next 200 years, the concentrations levels are not
going to go beyond 350 ppm.
Given that the premise is true, uniformity of nature dictates that the conclusion is
true. It was improbable that the conclusion will be false. Hence if one has to judge
this argument at the time it is made, this is an example of a strong inductive
argument. (Though we know today that the conclusion is false.)

August 26, 2020 68 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example IV: Analogy


Tridip enjoyed watching Omkara. Omkara is an adaptation of a Shakespearean play
by Vishal Bharadwaj. Haider is an adaptation of a Shakespearean play and it is
directed by Vishal Bharadwaj. Therefore, probably Tridip will like Haider as well.
This is an inductive argument based on analogy. Films directed by a filmmaker has
a lot of similarities. Play written by a playwright are often similar. Thus it is
improbable that the conclusion is false. Thus this is a strong argument.

August 26, 2020 69 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example V: Analogy
Amartya Sen won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1998. Prof. Sen was born in
Bangladesh. Mrinal Sen was also born in Bangladesh. Thus, Mrinal Sen is likely to
have won the Nobel prize in economics.
This is an inductive argument based on analogy. The premise of this argument is
true, but our background experience tells us that the mere fact that two people have
the same surname and that they share their place of birth, does not imply that they
will have similar academic achievements. Thus it is probable that the conclusion is
false. Thus this is a weak argument.

August 26, 2020 70 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example VI: Generalization


The survey included all individuals in Delhi whose Aadhar Card number ends with 4.
The percentage of sampled individuals who own a car was 16. Thus, 16 percent of all
Delhi residents own a car.
This is an inductive argument based on generalization. Suppose the premise of this
argument is true. Our background experience tells us that having an Aadhar card
with a certain digit is unlikely to be correlated with socio-economic attributes of an
individual. Thus it is probable that that the sample is a representative sample and
that the conclusion is true. Thus this is a strong argument.

August 26, 2020 71 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example VII: Generalization


The survey included all individuals in Delhi whose passport number ends with 4. The
percentage of sampled individuals who own a car was 50. Thus, 50 percent of all
Delhi residents own a car.
This is an inductive argument based on generalization. Suppose the premise of this
argument is true. Our background experience tells us that having an passport is
correlated with socio-economic attributes of an individual, like owning a car. Thus
it is unlikely that that the sample is a representative sample . It is improbable that
the conclusion is true. Thus this is a weak argument.

August 26, 2020 72 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example VIII
In the last 20 years, the number of individuals using a Nokia mobile phone has
declined rapidly in India. Thus in the coming years, we will probably expect to see an
decline in the malnutrition rates in Ethiopia.
The premise of this argument is true and the conclusion is probably true in reality,
but probability of the conclusion is not based on the assumption that the premise is
true. The premise is irrelevant to the conclusion. The conclusion is probably true
independent of the premise. Thus this is a weak argument.

August 26, 2020 73 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Example VIII shows us an important distinction between strong inductive


arguments and valid deductive arguments. If the conclusion of a deductive argument
is true irrespective of premise, it is still considered valid. However if the conclusion
of an inductive argument is true irrespective of premise, it is considered weak.

August 26, 2020 74 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

The examples above reveals an important fact about the strength or weakness of
inductive arguments: strength of an inductive argument is not something that can be
uniformly determined by the truth value of the premises and the conclusions. The
strength depends on the probabilistic support the premise gives to the conclusion.
In Example I, all the sentences that constitute the premises and the conclusion
are true statements. The argument in Example I is valid.
In Example II, all the sentences that constitute the premises and the
conclusion are false statements. The argument in Example II is valid.
Similarly we can construct other combinations of truth value that will be unable to
predict the strength of an argument. The only truth value arrangement that
predicts anything is a true premise and a false conclusion. An inductive argument
with a true premise and a probably false conclusion is weak. Note that when we
speak of the conclusion being probably false, we mean probably false in the actual
world in the light of all evidence.

August 26, 2020 75 / 91


Evaluating Arguments:

Strong Weak
True Premise, Probably True Conclusion Example I Example VIII
True Premise, Probably False Conclusion Does Not Exist Example V
False Premise, Probably True Conclusion Example IX Example X
False Premise, Probably False Conclusion Example II Example XI

Example IX:

All Indian Nobel laureates have won the Bharat Ratna. Thus, the next Indian to win
the Nobel prize will probably win the Bharat Ratna.

Example X:

All Indian Nobel laureates have won the Bharat Ratna. Thus, the next Indian
captain to win the World Cup will probably win the Khel Ratna Award.

Example XI:

All Indian Nobel laureates have won the Jnanpith Award. Thus, the next Indian
captain to win the World Cup will probably win the Jnanpith Award.

August 26, 2020 76 / 91


Proving Invalidity of Deductive Arguments:

Form of an Deductive Argument: Proving Invalidity

We have already noted that it is the form of an deductive argument that determines
its deductive validity. Examples I, II and III were examples of deductively valid
arguments in the Table. The arguments differed in terms of the truth value of the
premise and conclusion, but all of them had the same form. Similarly, all the
arguments in the invalid column had the same form.
Consider the following argument:

All Norwegians are Scandinavians.


All Scandinavians are Europeans.
Thus, All Norwegians are Europeans.

The form of these argument is:

All A are B.
All B are C.
Thus, All A are C.

August 26, 2020 77 / 91


Proving Invalidity of Deductive Arguments:

The form of a argument captures the inferential claim or the reasoning of the
argument.
If we assume all elements of A (whatever it is) are included in B (whatever it is), all
elements of B are included in C (whatever it is), it follows that all elements of A are
included in C.
It is the form of the argument which determines its validity, what is substituted in
place of the variables A, B and C has no role to play in the determination of its
validity.

August 26, 2020 78 / 91


Proving Invalidity of Deductive Arguments:

Any argument obtained by uniformly substituting the letters of an argument form


by terms (or sentences in propositional logic) is called a substitution instance of that
form. The substitution instance of an valid argument form is a valid argument.
Consider the following argument form:

All A are B.
All C are B.
All A are C.

We know that it is a invalid argument form. Suppose A and C are two mutually
exclusive subsets of B. Then the conclusion can be false even if the premise is true.
For example:

All rational numbers are real numbers.


All irrational numbers are real numbers.
All rational numbers are irrational numbers.

Thus an argument form can be proved invalid by finding a substitution form with
true premise and an actually false conclusion.

August 26, 2020 79 / 91


Proving Invalidity of Deductive Arguments:

A substitution instance that has a true premise and an actual false conclusion is
called a counter-example and if used to prove the invalidity of an argument is called
the counter-example method.
Consider the following argument:

Some economists do not question the assumption of homo-economicus.


All behavioral economists are economists.
Some behavioral economists do not question the assumption of homo-economicus.

If we knew that the conclusion is false and the premise true, we could have declared
it invalid. In absence of such knowledge, we can prove invalidity using the
counter-example method. First we identify the argument form:

Some A are not B.


All C are A.
Thus, Some C are not B.

August 26, 2020 80 / 91


Proving Invalidity of Deductive Arguments:

Next, we substitute the letters by terms. We choose the terms in a way that the
truth value of the premise and conclusion is known to us: A=Animals, B=Mammals
and C=Dogs. The substitution instance is:

Some animals are not mammals.


All dogs are animals.
Thus, Some dogs are not mammals.

This is an argument with a false conclusion and a true premise. Thus the argument
form is invalid. The original argument is invalid. It should be noted that not all
arguments are categorical syllogism. We use categorical syllogism because we have
some idea about sets. The counter-example method can be used in other forms of
deductive argument as well.

August 26, 2020 81 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Extended Arguments

Arguments that we see in journal articles, government reports, newspaper


articles, blogs are often mixed with fragments of other non-arguments. It is
important to distill out the argument, that is identify the premise and the
conclusion, from such passages.
Complex and lengthy arguments often have constituent sub-arguments that
eventually lead to the final conclusion. It is important to disentangle all the
sub-arguments to understand an argument.
Passages often have more than one arguments, each leading to separate
conclusions. It is important to identify each of these independent strands of
arguments.
Diagrammatic representation often helps us in understanding the complex
structure of lengthy arguments or argumentative passages.

August 26, 2020 82 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Consider a simple argument:


Example:

(1) Rice crop residue is not economically useful to farmers in North India. (2)
North Indian farmers burn their rice crop residue after harvest.

The premise - statement (1) supports the conclusion - statement (2).


In extended arguments there are two distinct patterns of argumentation: Vertical
Pattern and Horizontal Pattern.

August 26, 2020 83 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Vertical Pattern: Series of arguments. The conclusion of a logically prior


argument becomes the premise of a subsequent argument.
Example:

(1) Extreme rainfall shocks leads to contraction in the supply of food-grains. (2)
This leads to a rise in the price of food grains. (3) As a result, the urban poor suffer
a reduction in their material well-being. (4) The government should design distress
relief for the urban poor in a situation of a rainfall shock.

August 26, 2020 84 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Vertical Pattern: Series of arguments. The conclusion of a logically prior


argument becomes the premise of a subsequent argument.
Example:

(1) Extreme rainfall shocks leads to contraction in the supply of food-grains. (2)
This leads to a rise in the price of food grains. (3) As a result, the urban poor suffer
a reduction in their material well-being. (4) The government should design distress
relief for the urban poor in a situation of a rainfall shock.

August 26, 2020 84 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Example:

(1) An improvement in fuel efficiency might not lead to a reduction in total


emissions from cars. (2) An improvement in fuel efficiency reduces the cost of
traveling a mile. (2) If the price of fuel is unchanged, then a improvement in fuel
efficiency reduces the cost of transportation. (3) This leads to a increase in the
amount of miles traveled. (4) The increase in miles traveled might overwhelm the
reduction in the amount of fuel used for every mile traveled.

August 26, 2020 85 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Horizontal Pattern: Single argument. Two or more premises provide independent


support for the conclusion.
Example:

(1) The government need to make sufficient budgetary outlays for the National Rural
Employment Guarantee Scheme. (2) The NREGS provides access to employment
(and income) to the most vulnerable sections of the society. Besides that, research
has shown that (3) it has secondary effects in the form of increasing wages of casual
farm labour. (4) It has also has positive effects on nutritional intake, female labour
force participation and schooling outcomes of children.

August 26, 2020 86 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Horizontal Pattern: Single argument. Two or more premises provide independent


support for the conclusion.
Example:

(1) The government need to make sufficient budgetary outlays for the National Rural
Employment Guarantee Scheme. (2) The NREGS provides access to employment
(and income) to the most vulnerable sections of the society. Besides that, research
has shown that (3) it has secondary effects in the form of increasing wages of casual
farm labour. (4) It has also has positive effects on nutritional intake, female labour
force participation and schooling outcomes of children.

August 26, 2020 86 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Variations:
Conjoint Premises: Two or more premises provide support for the conclusion
conjointly.
Example:

(1) It was the Portuguese who taught Bengalis the art of making channa (Bandel
cheese) by splitting milk. (2) The Portuguese arrived in Bengal in 1500 AD. (3)
Thus quintessential Bengali confections like Sandesh and Rasogolla are not more
than 520 years old.

If one of the premises is dropped, the support that the other premise provides is
diminished.

August 26, 2020 87 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Variations:
Conjoint Premises: Two or more premises provide support for the conclusion
conjointly.
Example:

(1) It was the Portuguese who taught Bengalis the art of making channa (Bandel
cheese) by splitting milk. (2) The Portuguese arrived in Bengal in 1500 AD. (3)
Thus quintessential Bengali confections like Sandesh and Rasogolla are not more
than 520 years old.

If one of the premises is dropped, the support that the other premise provides is
diminished.

August 26, 2020 87 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Variations:
Conjoint Premises: Two or more premises provide support for the conclusion
conjointly.
Example:

(1) It was the Portuguese who taught Bengalis the art of making channa (Bandel
cheese) by splitting milk. (2) The Portuguese arrived in Bengal in 1500 AD. (3)
Thus quintessential Bengali confections like Sandesh and Rasogolla are not more
than 520 years old.

If one of the premises is dropped, the support that the other premise provides is
diminished.

August 26, 2020 87 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Variations:
Multiple Conclusions: One or more premises support ‘multiple’ conclusions .
Example:

(1) Coal based power generation and transportation are the two major sources of
carbon emissions in this state. (2) Therefore, to deal with the problem of emissions
the government should encourage the use of renewable power sources like solar
power.(3) Also it should encourage the use of energy efficient public transport
through subsidies.

August 26, 2020 88 / 91


Extended Arguments:

Variations:
Multiple Conclusions: One or more premises support ‘multiple’ conclusions .
Example:

(1) Coal based power generation and transportation are the two major sources of
carbon emissions in this state. (2) Therefore, to deal with the problem of emissions
the government should encourage the use of renewable power sources like solar
power.(3) Also it should encourage the use of energy efficient public transport
through subsidies.

August 26, 2020 88 / 91


Extended Arguments:

More Complex Arguments: Example:

(1) Government Mandates for zero-emissions vehicles won’t work because (2) only
electric cars qualify as zero-emissions vehicles. (3) Electric cars won’t sell. (4) They
are expensive. (5) Their range of operation is limited and (6) Recharging facilities
are generally not available.

August 26, 2020 89 / 91


Extended Arguments:

More Complex Arguments:


Example:

(1) We can expect small changes to occur in the length of the calender year for an
indefinite time to come. (2) This is true for two reasons. (3) First, the rotation of
the earth exhibits irregularities. (4) And why is this so? (5) The rotation of any
body is affected by its distribution of mass, and (6) the earth’s mass distribution is
continuously subject to change. For example, (7) earthquakes alter the location of
tectonic plates. Also, (8) the liquid core of the earth sloshes as the earth turns, and
(9) rainfall redistributes water from oceans. The second reason is that (10) the
motion of the tides causes a continual slowing down of earth’s rotation. (11) Tidal
motions produce heat, and (12) the loss of heat removes energy from the system.
Issac Asimov, “As the World Turns”

August 26, 2020 90 / 91


Extended Arguments:

More Complex Arguments:


Example:

(1) Mid-Day meals (also) help to reduce class inequalities. Indeed, (2) children
enrolled in government schools today come mainly from disadvantaged families.
Thus (3) mid-day meals can be seen as a form of economic support for the poor.
More importantly, (4) mid-day meals facilitate school going among underprivileged
children. (5) This is likely to reduce future class inequalities, since (6) lack of
education is a major source of economic disadvantage and social marginalization.
Jean Dreze: Sense and Solidarity: Jholawala Economics for Everyone (Section III,
Second Chapter)

August 26, 2020 91 / 91

You might also like