MODERN TECHNOLOGIES FOR

FINANCIAL FORECASTING AND THEIR IMPACT

ON BUSINESS ACTIVITIES

Course of Study : MBA Weekend - General

Subject Code : MBA 5106

Subject : Management Information Systems

Group No: 2.5

Acknowledgement
We take this opportunity to express our gratitude to those who gave an idea to do the
study in Modern Technologies for Financial Forecasting and Their Impact on Business
Activities.

We would like to thank Dr. Ajantha Atukorale for providing guidance to design and
prepare this study through the Course Outline and briefings in Lectures.

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Contents

Acknowledgement ...................................................................................................................... ii

Contents ..................................................................................................................................... iii

List of Annexures ...................................................................................................................... iv

1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1

1.1. What is Financial Forecasting ..................................................................................... 1

1.2. Types of Financial Forecasting and Approaches ......................................................... 1

1.3. Advantages of Financial Forecasting .......................................................................... 2

2. Modern Technologies for Financial Forecasting ................................................................ 2

2.1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) ............................................ 2

2.2. ERP Systems and Analytical Software ........................................................................ 4

2.3. Microsoft Platforms ..................................................................................................... 5

3. Impact on Business Activities ............................................................................................. 7

3.1. Positive Impacts ........................................................................................................... 7

3.2. Negative Impact ........................................................................................................... 8

4. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 10

References ................................................................................................................................ 11

Annexure 1................................................................................................................................ 14

iii
List of Annexures

Annexure 1 Members’ Contribution ........................................................................................ 14

iv
1. Introduction
1.1. What is Financial Forecasting
Financial forecasting is a vital part of business planning and crucial for business success.
Financial forecast is an estimate of income and expenses over a period of time. Financial
forecasts are commonly reviewed and revised annually as new information regarding assets and
costs becomes available. The new data enables a business to make more accurate financial
forecast and establish business can make accurate financial forecasts than new business subject
to significant seasonal and cyclical fluctuations (Steven Nickolas, 2021).

1.2. Types of Financial Forecasting and Approaches

Forecasting the profit and loss statement or income statement is known as the most
common type of finance forecast. The three major finical statements used are,

• Income statement
• Balance sheet
• Cash flow statement

A financial forecast is a rough estimate of the direction of a business in financial terms.

Before preparing a financial forecast first need to look at what resources a business has in their
position. The type of financial forecasting a business prepare thus depends on these resources.

Historical Financial Forecast

Historical financial forecasts analysis past financial statements of a business and use the
data to project future growth. Based on the company’s income statement, balance sheet and
cash flow statement, can determine how the business has grown over a period of time and able
to estimate of what the next year would be like. Historical financial forecasting is very easy and
doesn’t require a lot of expertise to perform.

Research-Based Financial Forecast

Research-based financial forecast go beyond the past financial statements of a business
and it takes into account past performance of the industry, competitor business projections, new
consumer trends, changes in technology, factors in industry growth and compare such data with
the business. Research-based financial forecast is a very detail approach compared to other
forecasting methods.

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 However, there are many emerging modern technologies that have used for financial
forecasting. Such technologies include Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine learning, Microsoft
Power BI, SAP ERP, MS Excel 365, etc. The use of these technologies for finical forecasting
created a business to do more accurate forecasting which results in an effective strategy setting.
These modern technologies are discussed in detail in this report.

1.3. Advantages of Financial Forecasting

There are numerous benefits attached to financial forecasting such as,

• Assess the financial viability of a new business activity and construct a model of how
your business might perform financially.
• Able to compare the actual financial operations of the business to the projected
financial plan and make required adjustments.
• Help to guide your business in the right direction and take control of your cash flow.
• Develop benchmark to measure future performance.
• Keep the business out of financial problems by reducing financial risks and cash
shortfalls.
• Estimates future cash requirements and determines whether further private equity or
borrowing is required.

2. Modern Technologies for Financial Forecasting

2.1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)
Forecasting manually is a time-consuming operation. Large crews are often required to
manually evaluate traditional business data (market demand, predicted pricing, and a few other
inputs), run statistical calculations, and develop an outlook for various locations and
marketplaces in order to calculate revenue. However, effort isn't the sole requirement. Forecasts
are also prone to errors, as computations frequently leave out key business aspects (supply-
chain data, stock availability, and so on) as well as non-business factors (such as how the
weather or current events can impact sales). Furthermore, when numerous people are involved
in the forecasting process, there is a higher risk of human error. Rather than continuing to do
things the old way with all hands on deck, more businesses are turning to digital technologies
like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. These solutions open up a whole new

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world of possibilities for improving the accuracy and efficiency of financial forecasting.
(Smooth sailing ahead: applying AI to financial forecasting, 2021).
Machine Learning (ML) is a technique for extracting knowledge/patterns from large
amounts of data. Machine learning can be applied to forecast financial outcomes, predict market
supply/demand/inventory, and improve corporate performance. ML can assess historical data
to determine demand, supply, and inventory, and then estimate demand, supply, and inventory
in the future. ML can forecast a client's budget as well as a variety of other economic variables,
allowing businesses to improve their performance (Financial Forecasting using Machine
Learning, 2016).
Business may leverage more data from more sources and conduct more complicated and
sophisticated querying of that data with machine learning, resulting in more accurate
projections being produced faster. Traditional spreadsheets and financial tools can't even come
close to this. Machine learning allows businesses to go beyond typical datasets in their studies,
potentially revealing unexpected correlations between measures (Ali, 2020).
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is one of the technologies that has shown to be incredibly
useful and efficient in allowing automated computerized systems to become more personalized
in order to fulfill human desires. The key technology being used to make machines intelligent
and capable of emulating human actions and behaviors is artificial intelligence (AI). On
average, computer systems are much better at data collecting and analysis than humans (Annor
et al., 2019).
Artificial intelligence includes machine learning as a subset (AI). Machine learning
techniques, unlike artificial general intelligence (AGI), which is designed to closely resemble
human thinking, do not “think” or “learn” in the same way that humans do. To better express
its distinctiveness to an audience inexperienced with the complexities of software engineering,
ML is commonly referred to as AI in marketing efforts. ML, on the other hand, is not the same
as AGI (Ali, 2020).
It's important to note that the phrases artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning
(ML) are sometimes used interchangeably. However, AI is a broad word, and machine learning
is a subclass of it; the distinction is that machine learning is a data-driven method of achieving
AI, but it is not the only one. Similarly, big data analytics encompasses statistical learning as
well as machine learning (Posth et al., 2021). Multi-Layer Perception (MLP), Time Series
Forecasting, Window Method, and Gaussian Process are some of the most prominent methods
for ML forecasting (Financial Forecasting using Machine Learning, 2016).

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 AI and machine learning are used in forecasting to analyze market patterns and generate
a systematic trend that may be used in the future. Businesses can now utilize software to help
with stock market modeling and forecasting to avoid being caught off guard (Chrisos, 2018).

2.2. ERP Systems and Analytical Software

The Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems such as SAP, SAGE, ORACLE, IFS,
etc.., facilitate inbuilt modules for the financial forecasting & offer enhanced visibility of
performance across the organization. Through high visibility real-time dashboards, it’s easier
to communicate their forecasting among the decision makers in the enterprise. The tools can
help deliver more controlled self-service financial forecasting to them, and everyone can view
the core assumptions on which forecasts are based. Control is improved because less reliance
is placed on manual reconciliations and data input, and core financial process is managed more
effectively, uses to workflow and greater automation functionality (Karlson, 2020).

IBM Planning Analytics is a fast, flexible and AI-powered Extended Planning and
Analysis (EP&A) solution. It can be deployed on-cloud, on-premises or as a hybrid option, and
it helps organizations large and small drive greater process efficiency and deliver the foresight
they need to steer performance effectively. It has been praised for its ease of use by customers
and analysts alike. This solution not only automates manual tasks to accelerate forecasting
cycles, but goes beyond automation to help the enterprise uncover new insights directly from
data. IBM Planning Analytics puts the power of algorithmic forecasting in the hands of every
day users for more accurate, consistent, and timely forecasts even those without data science
skills. Predictive forecasting augments human intelligence by using statistical and predictive
analytics to identify and assess trends and seasonality patterns in historic values, greatly
improving forecast accuracy. It also reduces the time required to produce an accurate forecast,
allowing users to focus on process optimization, managing exceptions and making adjustments.
IBM Planning Analytics embeds statistical algorithms directly into the solution so users don’t
have to export data to an external solution. The algorithms assess the historical values and
applies the algorithm that yields the best accuracy and fewest errors, to predict a future value.
Once a prediction has been generated, the statistical details page provides easy to understand
facts about how it was generated and provides users with more granular information as well as
increased the ability to explain and accountability in their financial forecasts (IBM Planning
Analytics with Watson - Overview, 2021).

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 Planful is another leading Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) cloud platform.
Planful delivers a vision of Continuous Planning by accelerating the end to end FP&A process
and fostering business wide participation in agile planning, forecasting and decision making.
Oracle Planning and Budgeting Cloud platform is a complete planning, budgeting, and
forecasting solution that enables organizations of any size to rapidly adopt world class planning
applications, improving forecast accuracy with minimal IT resources.
SAP Business Planning and Consolidation (BPC) is a famous platform for faster and more
accurate platform for planning and forecasting. The SAP BPC software delivers planning,
budgeting, forecasting, and financial consolidation capabilities in a single application. Ability
to easily adjust plans and forecasts, speed up budget and closing cycles, and ensure compliance
with financial reporting standards are major advantages of the SAP BPC.
PlaceCPM is the comprehensive financial forecasting solution built specifically for
technology and services companies. It delivers unrivaled flexibility and transparency that small
and medium-sized finance departments which need to generate more models with greater
business impact in less time. It gives finance teams the flexibility and freedom to build more
resilient financial models on demand that can be easily adjusted to reflect business changes on
the ground. The result for finance teams and their businesses is easily accessible data with less
day-to-day financial ground, more proactive business and growth planning and enhanced
confidence in their preparedness for the future.
There are many similar kind of modern platforms for financial forecasting and those are
used different business entities according to their applications.

2.3. Microsoft Platforms

When we consider forecasting solutions widely used, we should discuss about the
Dynamics 365 and Excel 365 from Microsoft.

2.3.1. Microsoft Excel 365

Microsoft Excel is a software program created by Microsoft that uses spreadsheets to
organize numbers and data with formulas and functions. Excel is used across all business
functions in many organizations. Excel is widely used for Accounting, Financial analysis and
Financial Modelling or Financial Forecasting in financial function. Even though budgeting and
forecasting tasks are accomplished more accurately and easily with software designed for that
purpose, more than 70% of the people in finance prefer to use excel. The most common reason
for why Excel is used, especially for budgeting and forecasting, is that it’s what a company has

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always used. Nearly every employee at every company has a copy of Excel available to them
and most users are familiar with Excel’s interface. Another reason for people prefer excel is the
simple nature and inputs give rise to the outputs is transparent, by virtue of formulae and
methodologies that can be clearly seen, reviewed and audited (insightsoftware, 2020).

. By considering this preference of the users and the organizations towards excel,
Microsoft keep on adding more functions and formulas under the financial. Microsoft has rolled
out a new artificial intelligence (AI) feature call Insights to Excel in 2018 which Driven by
machine learning. Excel Insights will analyze the Excel data to search for patterns and return a
series of important facts or trends about the data. In addition to these, Microsoft add Forecast
Ribbon, Pivot table, Pivot chart and power pivot to enhance the features to support financial
people. There are many occasions, people extract data from sophisticated ERP systems and do
the analysis in excel to prepare the forecasting models.

2.3.2. Microsoft Dynamics 365

Dynamics 365 for Finance and Operations is Microsoft’s flagship enterprise resource
planning (ERP) suite. Seamless integration with Dynamics 365 customer relationship
management (CRM) apps and Office 365 enables faster business processes and smarter
decision making. Dynamics 365 supports with cutting-edge machine learning skills and built-
in intelligence to accelerate organisations growth. The industry-leading Power BI embedded as
the native business intelligence gives real-time visibility across the entire organisation. The
choice of deployment options gives the flexibility to start on one scenario and change later.
From full cloud to cloud plus(+) edge to local business data, which can move in either direction
depending on the organisation’s business needs. It actively monitors cash flow, identify current
and future trends, and make data-driven decisions using an intelligent and customizable cash
flow–forecasting solution (Jodi Christiansen, 2020). The Forecasting Model for Microsoft
Dynamics 365 for Financials analyze data in historical periods to make predictions about cash
flow and inventory levels.
Dynamics 365 uses extensive telemetry and diagnostics to analyze system performance
in real time, allowing it to predict difficulties and streamline procedures. It utilise all business
logic any time, any place, on any device, through a clean, modern and intuitive browser-based
UI that is a pleasure to use and easy to learn.
Dynamics 365 avoid cost and risk, and minimise deployment time, by modelling and
testing the system in the Azure-based Lifecycle Services portal providing end-to-end
application management. It supports to reduce operational costs across business geographies

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with financial process automation, encumbrance, budget planning, budget control, and three-
way matching of the Invoice, the Purchase Order and the Product Receipt. It protect data and
workloads with enterprise-grade Service Level Agreements, round-the-clock tech support, and
built-in disaster recovery without the added costs of a data center.

3. Impact on Business Activities

3.1. Positive Impacts
In today’s ultra-competitive business landscape, financial forecasting plays an inevitable
role. However, the technology is transforming the business activities in multiple ways. Below
discuss some of the main positive impacts of modern technology and financial forecasting on
business activities.

3.1.1. Better Inventory Management

All producers face the difficulty of maintaining adequate inventory levels. Manufacturers
can employ technology like ERP systems to construct adaptive business processes that can
handle a wide range of demand scenarios. By successfully controlling inventories and sales
orders, analytics will assist in achieving financial targets with predictable success.

3.1.2. Higher Customer Satisfaction

Higher customer satisfaction levels lead to higher customer retention and repeat business.
Technology solutions such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) used in Customer Relationship
Management Systems (CRM) can play a vital role in increasing speed of delivery and in
keeping the customer informed about the product delivery schedule. Processes can be designed
to keep customers informed throughout the process, from order confirmation to order
fulfilment. It can also provide a platform for the customer to track their order, increasing a
customer’s sense of self-sufficiency and control, while at the same time transferring customer
service tasks to the customer, which saves manufacturers time and money. Manufacturers can
also develop mechanisms to interact with their logistic providers and get real time updates on
shipments of both their inventory and product delivery (Poirier & Bauer, 2008).

3.1.3. Essential for global outreach

Manufacturers can improve collaboration with their important partners by using Modern
Technology to offer real-time data exchange with the Power BI application. Manufacturers can
also track activity across the whole supply chain, including supplier end and distributor
processes, with visibility into both. Such data can assist manufacturers in making more

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informed decisions and forecasting future outcomes. This helps control the manufacturing
process and leads to lower costs through more effective decisions in procurement.
Furthermore, changes in a specific market location throughout the world can be easily
detected and used to cushion the financial sector in other regions. This has been made possible
primarily by a complicated database and network infrastructure that connects people all over
the world.

3.1.4. Massive reductions in time and effort

Before the concept of machine-learning (ML) financial forecasting was introduced, it
was a complex affair using spreadsheets. After introducing ML, businesses are able to use more
data from various sources and conduct more complex and sophisticated querying of that data,
producing financial forecasts faster (Ali, 2020).

3.1.5. Increased accuracy

The machine-learning systems provide global analysts with an accurate forecasting
benchmark that is comparable to internal human-generated forecasts. It has given the businesses
more confidence in the forward-looking revenue ranges it provides to external stakeholders.

3.1.6. Agile Forecasting

Due to the extreme volatility in the business environment, the traditional forecasting is
not valid anymore. Agile forecasting helps finance teams adapt quickly to unexpected events
and shifts in market conditions. It also increases the speed, transparency and accuracy of the
forecasting.
For instance, most of the SMEs, which collapsed during the Covid 19 pandemic, had not
implemented agile forecasting (AI-enabled Planning and Forecasting: The Future of Budgeting,
n.d.).

3.2. Negative Impact

Although modern technologies are known for their advanced features which bring lot of
benefits to the financial forecasting, there can be some negative impacts on business activities
too.

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3.2.1. Higher Cost Involvement
Most of the times, using modern technologies for financial forecasting involves higher
cost. Implementation of the new ERP systems and AI systems will incur a higher initial cost
and there are several costs associated with hardware, software, licensing, service agreement,
maintenance, recruiting skilled people and training involved in the integration etc. Although as
time passes, benefits surpass the cost provided that the right system is in place, initial
implementation budget is very high. Making the right choice among different available modern
financial forecasting technologies which matches the company needs and optimizes the
financial forecasting and budgeting process of the organization is crucial. This may involve a
rigorous project appraisal process. And also organizations have to bear additional cost to
customize most of the ERP systems. This higher cost involvement of implementation and using
modern technologies for financial forecasting may lead to budget constraints and cut down the
other budget allocations such as for advertising, payroll etc. And also there are possibilities for
the organizations to miss other beneficial projects due to lack of money to invest.

3.2.2. Less Human Involvement

When the organizations use modern technology for business functions and financial
forecasting, less human involvement is needed. This eliminates some current job roles
completely such as data entry operators and book keepers and organizations go for employee
layoffs. This can be negatively impacted for the employer and labour relations of the
organization. And also organizations have to recruit new employees who have knowledge and
experience of using modern technologies when they can’t deploy existing employees to work
with new technologies due to lack of knowledge. As most of the modern technologies facilitate
collaborative work with different departments, organizations have to provide required training
programs to work with the new forecasting technologies and to get the maximum use of the
investments. This has an impact on the training and development activities and recruitment
planning activities of the human resource function of the organizations.

3.2.3. Security Threats by Placing Sensitive Information in the hands of a third party
Although cloud service providers implement the best state of art security standards, there
is a security threat of providing sensitive information to a third party. Therefore the
organizations need to look in to the trustworthiness of service providers and the obligations of
the cloud service contract that the service providers agreed upon. Otherwise it would bring
negative consequences to the organizations such as misuse of sensitive information by the

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competitors by hacking, generating wrong forecasts etc. and this will be a threat to
organization’s activities and profitability.

4. Conclusion
Financial forecasting is an essential part of business planning and it is crucial for the
success of businesses. By undertaking a good financial forecasting, businesses can reduce the
risk and uncertainty. As financial forecasting is indispensable strategic contributors, finance
executives are realising the need of transforming their rigid yearly financial forecasting
processes by adopting modern technological systems which include on-premise and cloud-
based analytical tools.
There are many emerging modern technologies that can be used for financial forecasting
which have already proven their accuracy, timeliness, usefulness and user friendliness and
started to penetrate deeper and deeper into businesses' activities, becoming a necessity to
survive in the dynamic environment. Those include Artificial Intelligence (AI), ERP systems
and analytical software such as IBM Planning, Planful, Oracle Planning and Budgeting Cloud,
SAP Business Planning and Consolidation, industry specific solutions like Place CPM and
widely used solutions like Microsoft Excel 365 and Microsoft Dynamics 365.
Adapting to new technologies for financial forecasts bring both positive and negative
impact on business activities. Negative impacts can be eliminated by adapting to FOSS – Cloud,
selecting the service providers carefully etc. However, if the right choice is made which matches
the organization’s requirements and if it is properly implemented and maintained, organizations
can enjoy many benefits through financial forecasting using real time information and can
achieve competitive advantage through big data in the long term.

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Annexure 1 Members’ Contribution

Members’ Contribution

Registration
Name Signature Focus Area/ Contribution
Number

2020/MBA/WE/096 MH Prageeth Introduction and background

Modern Technologies for

2020/MBA/WE/073 APEN Mendis financial forecasting - AI &
Machine Learning
Modern Technologies for
2020/MBA/WE/077 MAHP Nawarathna financial forecasting - ERP
Systems & Software
Modern Technologies for
2020/MBA/WE/123 P Vathsalyan financial forecasting -
Microsoft Platforms

Positive impact on business

2020/MBA/WE/105 LAR Rukshika
activities

Negative impact on business

2020/MBA/WE/119 EKSH Siriwardhana
activities and Conclusion

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