ESC305 Lecturenote

Chapter 1.
Overview
Weather, global warming and climate change
(NASA)
• “Climate change” and “global warming” are often used
interchangeably, but they have distinct meanings.
• Similarly, the terms "weather" and "climate" are sometimes confused,

though they refer to events with broadly different spatial- and
timescales.
Weather vs Climate (NASA)
• Weather refers to atmospheric conditions that occur locally over
short periods of time—from minutes to hours or days. Familiar
examples include rain, snow, clouds, winds, floods or thunderstorms.
• Weather is local and short-term.
• Climate, on the other hand, refers to the long-term regional or even

global average of temperature, humidity and rainfall patterns over
seasons, years or decades.
• Climate is global and long-term.
Global Warming
• Global warming refers to the upward temperature
trend across the entire Earth since the early 20th
century, and most notably since the late 1970s, due to
the increase in fossil fuel emissions since the
industrial revolution.
Climate Change
• Climate change refers to a broad range of global phenomena
created predominantly by burning fossil fuels, which add heat-
trapping gases to Earth’s atmosphere.
• These phenomena include the increased temperature trends
described by global warming, but also encompass changes such as;
• sea level rise
• ice mass loss in Greenland, Antarctica, the Arctic and mountain
glaciers worldwide
• shifts in flower/plant blooming
• extreme weather events
Climate Change: How do we know ?
This graph, based on the comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that
atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.)
This graph illustrates the change
in global surface temperature
relative to 1951-1980 average
temperatures.
Eighteen of the 19 warmest years
all have occurred since 2001, with
the exception of 1998.
The year 2016 ranks as the
warmest on record and 2020 the
second warmest year
(Source: NASA/GISS).
• Earth-orbiting satellites and other technological advances have
enabled scientists to see the big picture, collecting many different
types of information about our planet and its climate on a global
scale. This body of data, collected over many years, reveals the signals
of a changing climate.
• The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was

demonstrated in the mid-19th century. Their ability to affect the
transfer of infrared energy through the atmosphere is the scientific
basis of many instruments flown by NASA. There is no question that
increased levels of greenhouse gases must cause the Earth to warm in
response.
Greenhouse Effect
• Life on Earth depends on energy coming from the sun. About
half the light reaching Earth's atmosphere passes through
the air and clouds to the surface, where it is absorbed and
then radiated upward in the form of infrared heat.
• About 90 % of this heat is then absorbed by the greenhouse

gases and radiated back toward the surface, which is
warmed to a life-supporting average of 59 degrees
Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).
A blanket around the Earth (NASA)
A layer of greenhouse gases – primarily water vapor, and including much smaller amounts of carbon dioxide, methane and
nitrous oxide – acts as a thermal blanket for the Earth, absorbing heat and warming the surface to a life-supporting average of 59
degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius).
Greenhouse Effect
• Greenhouse gases are transparent to visible and near-
infrared wavelengths of sun-light, but they absorb and
re-radiate downward a large fraction of the longer far-
infrared wavelengths (heat).
Radiation Balance of the Earth
• The sun's radiant energy is the fuel that drives Earth's climate
engine. The Earth-atmosphere system constantly tries to maintain a
balance between the energy that reaches the Earth from the sun
and the energy that flows from Earth back out to space.
• Energy received from the sun is mostly in the visible (or shortwave)
part of the electromagnetic spectrum.
• About 30% of the solar energy that comes to Earth is reflected back
to space. The ratio of reflected-to-incoming energy is called
"albedo" from the Latin word meaning whiteness.
• The solar radiation absorbed by the Earth causes the planet to heat
up until it is radiating (or emitting) as much energy back into space
as it absorbs from the sun.
Radiation Balance of the Earth
• The Earth's thermal emitted radiation is mostly in the infrared (or
longwave) part of the spectrum. The balance between incoming and
outgoing energy is called the Earth's radiation budget.
• The components of the Earth system that are most important to the
radiation budget are;
- the planet's surface,
- atmosphere,
- clouds.
Earth’s Energy Budget (NASA)
....,______ lnfrared
• 1 �is�':, .....,...____ uv----ııı-►
100 Methane (CH4)
50
o-------
100 Nitrous -oxide (N20)
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Oxygen (0;2 ) and
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Waveıeogth (m)
Composition of Clean Dry Air
(Fraction by volume in the Troposphere, 2006)
Constituent Mixing Ratio
Nitrogen (N2) 78.08 %
Oxygen (O2) 20.95 %
Argon (Ar) 0.93 %
Carbondioxide (CO2) 380 ppm or 0.038 %
Neon (Ne) 18 ppm or 0.0018
Helium (He) 5.2 ppm
Methane (CH4) 1.7 ppm
Krypton (Kr) 1.1 ppm
Hydrogen (H2) 0.5 ppm
Ozone (O3) 0.04 ppm
• Water vapor, with highly variable abundance (0.5-4 %), also has a strong
influence on climate.
Layers of the Atmosphere
Troposphere
• The lowest layer of our atmosphere.
• Starting at ground level, it extends upward to about 10 km above sea
level.
• We humans live in the troposphere, and nearly all weather occurs in
this lowest layer.
• Most clouds appear here, mainly because 99% of the water vapor in
the atmosphere is found in the troposphere.
• Air pressure drops, and temperatures get colder, as you climb higher
in the troposphere.
Stratosphere
• The stratosphere extends from the top of the troposphere to about
50 km (31 miles) above the ground.
• The ozone layer is found within the stratosphere. Ozone molecules in
this layer absorb high-energy ultraviolet (UV) light from the Sun,
converting the UV energy into heat.
• Unlike the troposphere, the stratosphere actually gets warmer the
higher you go
Mesosphere
• It extends upward to a height of about 85 km (53 miles) above our
planet.
• Unlike the stratosphere, temperatures once again grow colder as you
rise up through the mesosphere. The coldest temperatures in Earth's
atmosphere, about -90° C (-130° F), are found near the top of this
layer.
• The air in the mesosphere is far too thin to breathe; air pressure at
the bottom of the layer is well below 1% of the pressure at sea level,
and continues dropping as you go higher.
Gases that contribute to the greenhouse
effect include:
• Water vapor: The most abundant greenhouse gas, but importantly, it acts
as a feedback to the climate. Water vapor increases as the Earth's
atmosphere warms, but so does the possibility of clouds and precipitation,
making these some of the most important feedback mechanisms to the
greenhouse effect.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2): A minor but very important component of the

atmosphere, carbon dioxide is released through natural processes such as
respiration and volcano eruptions and through human activities such as
deforestation, land use changes, and burning fossil fuels. Humans have
increased atmospheric CO2 concentration by a third since the Industrial
Revolution began.
effect include:
• Methane (CH4): A hydrocarbon gas produced both through natural
sources and human activities, including the decomposition of wastes
in landfills, agriculture, and especially rice cultivation, as well as
ruminant digestion and manure management associated with
domestic livestock.
• On a molecule-for-molecule basis, methane is a far more active
greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but also one which is much less
abundant in the atmosphere.
effect include:
• Nitrous oxide (N2O): A powerful greenhouse gas produced by soil
cultivation practices, especially the use of commercial and organic
fertilizers, fossil fuel combustion, nitric acid production, and biomass
burning.
• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): Synthetic compounds entirely of

industrial origin used in a number of applications, but now largely
regulated in production and release to the atmosphere by
international agreement for their ability to contribute to destruction
of the ozone layer.
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
• Not enough greenhouse effect:

The planet Mars has a very thin
atmosphere, nearly all carbon
dioxide.
• Because of the low atmospheric

pressure, and with little to no
methane or water vapor to
reinforce the weak greenhouse
effect, Mars has a largely frozen
surface that shows no evidence
of life.
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
• Too much greenhouse effect:

The atmosphere of Venus, like
Mars, is nearly all carbon
dioxide.
• But Venus has about 300

times as much carbon dioxide
in its atmosphere as Earth and
Mars do, producing a runaway
greenhouse effect and a
surface temperature hot
enough to melt lead.
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse

effect. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil
has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
This happens because the coal or oil burning process combines
carbon with oxygen in the air to make CO2.
• To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and

other human activities have increased concentrations of greenhouse
gases.
• The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon

have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per
million to more than 400 parts per million in the last 150 years.
Global GHG Emissions by Gas (US EPA – IPCC, 2014)
Global Emissions by Economic Sector
(US EPA – IPCC, 2014)
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas, 1990–2010
Data sources: WRI, 2014; FAO, 2014
Global CO2 Emissions
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region, 1990–2012
Data source: WRI, 2015
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 1990–2010
Data sources: WRI, 2014; FAO, 2014
This figure shows
worldwide greenhouse
gas emissions by sector
from 1990 to 2010. For
consistency, emissions
are expressed in million
metric tons of carbon
dioxide equivalents.
These totals include
emissions and sinks due
to land-use change and
forestry (US EPA).
World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2016
Total: 49.4 GtC0 2 e
Sector End Use/Activity Gas
Road 11.9%
Transportation 15.9%
Rail, Air, Ship & Pipeline 4.3%
Residential Buildings 10.9%

>
C,
Commercial Buildings 6.6%
a: Electricity and Heat 30.4%
w
z Unallocated Fuel Combustion 18%
w
lron & Steel 12%
Buildings 5.5%
Other Fuel Combustion 3%
Chemical and Petrochemical 5.8%
Manufacturing
and Construction 12.4%
Other lndustry 10.6%
Agnadm & Aslıııg fnel9'1 Use iN

Fugitive Emissions 5.8% ());j 19'1
Oil and Natural Gas 3.8%

Cement 3%
Livestock & Manure 5.8%
Rice Cultivation 1.3%
Agriculture Soils 4.1%
Buming 3.5%
u�
IA%
19'1
Emissions by Country , 2020
Turkey- GHG Emissions Breakdown, 1990-
2018
• Total CO2 emissions: 0.42 Gt CO2 (2018 IEA)
• 72,2 % energy; % 12,6 industrial processes & utilization; 11,9 %
agricultural activities; 3,3 % waste management
• 5.21 Mt per capita (IEA)
• % 186,6 increase in GHG emissions (in CO2 eq) between 1990

and 2017
• CO2 emissions- energy

• CH4 emissions- agriculture; waste
• N2O emissions-agriculture
Chapter 2
History of the Study of Climate
Change
• In the 19th century, scientists realized that gases in
the atmosphere caused a "greenhouse effect" which
affected the planet's temperature. These scientists
were interested chiefly in the possibility that a lower
level of carbon dioxide gas might explain the ice
ages of the distant past.
• The last ice age had ended 10,000 years ago.
• The chief question was «had the composition of the
atmosphere changed in time» The
• last ice age had ended 10,0The last ice age had ended
The History of Atmospheric
Science
1750s:
• Joseph Black identifies

CO2 (he called fixed air) in
the air.
• A Scottish scientist
known for his work on
latent heat, specific heat
and CO2.
The History of Atmospheric
Science
1781:
• Henry Cavendish
measures the
percentage
composition of
nitrogen and oxygen
in the air.
• Henry Cavendish was a

British scientist noted for his
discovery of hydrogen (he
called it inflammable air)
Historical Background
• 1820s:
Jean Babtiste Joseph
Fourier postulated
that some of the
gases in the
atmosphere must
trap heat.
(Greenhouse Effect)
John Tyndall was a
prominent Irish
physicist of the 19th
century.
Beginning in the late
1850s, Tyndall
studied the action of
radiant energy on
the constituents of
air.
• John Tyndall found out that gases like
water vapour (H2O), carbon dioxide CO2
and CH4 could trap heat rays (infrared
radiation) in the Earth’s atmosphere, thus
the «greenhouse effect».
• Svante August
Arrhenius was a
Swedish physicist
and chemist, who won
the Nobel Prize in
chemistry in 1903. He
was one of the
founders of «physical
chemistry»
1890s:
Svante Arrhenius completed a numerical
experiment, which suggested that cutting
the amount of carbon dioxide-CO2 in the
Earth’s atmosphere by half could lower the
temperature in Europe by some 4-5oC.
This lowering was sufficient for an ice age.

Arvid Gustaf Högbom
was a Swedish
geologist.
Arrhenius discussed his

findings with
Högbom, who was
working on carbon
cycles through
natural geochemical
processes.
Arvid Högbom calculated the amounts of CO2
emitted by factories and other industrial
sources.
He found out that the added gas through

human activities was not much compared
with the amount of CO2 already present in
the Earth’s atmosphere.
1890s:
Svante Arrhenius made another calculation for
doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere, and
estimated that this increase would raise the
Earth’s temperature some 5-6oC.
Svante Arrhenius further estimated that if

industry continued to burn fuel at the 1890s
rate (1896 to be exact), it would take perhaps
about 3000 years for the CO2 level to double.
• Another highly respected scientist,

Walther Hermann Nernst, a physicist
and chemist, even fantasized about
setting fire to useless coal seams in
order to release enough CO2 to
deliberately warm the Earth's climate.
He who won the 1920 Nobel Prize in
chemistry.
John Henry Poynting was an
English Physicist. He is well
known for introducing
the term «greenhouse
effect» in 1909 to explain
how infrared absorbing
gases such as CO2 in
the atmosphere increases
the surface temperature
of the Earth.
• Actually the scientists were pursuing the ice
ages and other ancient climatic changes
(age of the dinosaurs)
• Nobody was interested in a hypothetical
future warming caused by industrial CO2
emissions.
• Another blow came from Knut Angström,
who did experiments to show that CO2
absorbed radiation only in specific bands of
the spectrum so that more gas would make
little difference.
• Knut Johan Ångström
was a Swedish
physicist and he was
the son of physicist
Andres Jonas
Angström.
• He devoted himself to
investigations of the
radiation of heat from
the sun and its
absorption by the
Earth's atmosphere.
• Water vapour, which is more abundant
in the atmosphere than CO2, intercepts
infrared radiation.
• That is absorption bands of CO2 and

H2O overlapped one another, so that
more CO2 could not affect more
radiation absorption.
• After Ångström published his conclusions in
1900, the few scientists who had taken an
interest in the matter concluded that
Arrhenius's hypothesis had been proven
wrong.
• Theoretical work on the question stagnated

for decades, and so did measurement of the
level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
• It was also further argued that the Earth
automatically regulated itself in a “balance of
nature”.
• The oceans would absorb any excess gases
that came into the atmosphere.
• If the oceans failed to stabilize the system,
organic matter would stabilize it through.
• Just as sea water would absorb more gas if
the concentration increased, so would plants
grow more lushly in air that was "fertilized"
with extra carbon dioxide.
• Rough calculations seemed to confirm the
comfortable belief that biological systems
would stabilize the atmosphere by absorbing
any surplus.
• One way or another, then, whatever gases

humanity added to the atmosphere would be
absorbed — if not at once, then within a
century or so — and the equilibrium would
automatically restore itself.
• In 1920, Milutin
Milankovitch
published his theory
of ice ages based on
variations in the
Earth’s orbit.
• In 1938, an English
engineer, Guy Stewart
Callendar, who was an
expert in steam
technology, tried to
revive the old idea.
• Guy Stewart Callendar compiled temperature
measurements from the 19th century on and found
out that there was a warming trend.
• He evaluated the old CO2 measurements and
concluded that the concentration of the gas had
increased. He asserted that this rise could
account for the observed warming.
• As for the future, Callendar estimated that a
doubling of CO2 could gradually bring a 2°C rise in
future centuries. But future warming was a side
issue for Callendar. Like all his predecessors, he
was mainly interested in solving the mystery of the
ice ages.
• Guy Stewart Callendar calculated that 150

billion tons of CO2 was added to the
atmosphere during the past half century,
increasing the Earth’s temperature by
0.005°C per year during that period.
• Callendar's publications attracted some
attention, and climatology textbooks of the
1940s and 1950s routinely included a brief
reference to his studies. But most
meteorologists gave Callendar's idea little
credit.
• In the first place, they doubted that CO2 had

increased at all in the atmosphere. The old
data were untrustworthy, for measurements
could vary with every change of wind that
brought emissions from some factory or
forest.
There was also the old objection, which most
scientists continued to find decisive, that the
overlapping absorption bands of CO2 and
water vapor already blocked all the radiation
that those molecules were capable of
blocking.
• In the 1950s, Callendar's claims provoked a few
scientists to look into the question with improved
techniques and calculations. What made that
possible was a sharp increase of government
funding, especially from military agencies with Cold
War concerns about the weather and the seas.
• The new studies showed that, contrary to earlier

crude estimates, carbon dioxide could indeed build
up in the atmosphere and should bring warming.
Painstaking measurements drove home the point in
1960 by showing that the level of the gas was in fact
rising, year by year.
• In the 1950s, it was found out that absorption
bands of gases exhibited vast differences at
lower pressures (such as high altitudes).
• At lower pressures each absorption band

resolved into sharply defined peaks, with
gaps where radiation could get through.
• Precise laboratory measurements showed
that CO2 absorption lines did not lie on top of
H2O vapour lines. They were two sets of
narrow lines with spaces in between.
• Another revolution in analytical chemistry

was the discovery of the radioactive isotope
carbon-14. This isotope of carbon exists at
low concentrations in the atmosphere and
has a half life of 5500 years.
• From measurements of how much of the
isotope was found in air and how much in
sea water, it was possible to calculate the
movements of CO2.
• More recent studies showed that the

chemicals that existed in sea water created a
buffering mechanism that stabilized the
acidity. This would prevent the water from
retaining all the extra CO2 it took up.
• The insight was that although seawater did
absorb CO2 most rapidly, most of the added
gas would promptly evaporate back into the
air before the slow oceanic circulation sent it
down into deeper waters (solubility pump).
• More and more scientists were joining the

greenhouse effect club in the late 1950s.
• Charles David Keeling installed CO2 measuring
instruments on the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii and
started to monitor its concentration starting in 1958.
As the CO2 record extended, it became increasingly
impressive and each year noticably higher.
• Soon Keeling’s curve was widely cited by
scientific circles and it become the primary
icon for the greenhouse effect.
• Although CO2 increase in the atmosphere
was evident, many scientists were not
convinced with the rate of temperature
increase it was associated with.
• To make matters more complicated the
warming trend until the 1940s had switched
to a cooling trend.
• In the 1980s, convincing data came from ice
core studies. During the last ice age the level
of CO2 in the atmosphere had been as much
as 50 % lower than in our warmer times.
• A two kilometer deep ice core showed a

150,000 years record, a complete ice age
cycle of warmth, cold and warmth. It was
found that CO2 levels had gone up and down
in close step with temperature.
• After 1987, more ice core data going back to
400,000 years (four complete glacial cycles)
were obtained.
• The CO2 levels got as low as 180 ppm in the

cold periods and reached 280 ppm during the
warm periods, but never higher.
• Now it was at 380 ppm, never seen in the

geological era.
• During the 1990s, careful analysis of ice core
measurements exhibited that during past
glacial periods temperature changes had
preceded CO2 changes by a few centuries.
• A key point was in the network of feedbacks

that made up the climate system, CO2 was a
main driving force.
• Analyses of ancient climates using entirely
geological data independent of computer
models showed that there was a “climate
sensitivity”- the response of temperature to a
rise in the CO2 level- in the same range as
computer models predicted for future
greenhouse warming.
• One unexpected discovery was that the level
of certain other gases was rising, which
would add seriously to global warming.
Some of these gases also degraded the
atmosphere's protective ozone layer, and the
news inflamed public worries about the
fragility of the atmosphere.
• Moreover, by the late 1970s global
temperatures had begun to rise again. Many
climate scientists had become convinced
that the rise was likely to continue as
greenhouse gases accumulated.
• By around 2000, some predicted, an
unprecedented global warming would
become apparent. Their worries first caught
wide public attention in the summer of 1988.
• An international meeting of scientists warned

that the world should take active steps to cut
greenhouse gas emissions.
• The world's governments had created a
panel to give them the most reliable possible
advice, as negotiated among thousands of
climate experts and officials.
• By 2001, this Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) managed to establish
a consensus:
• Scientists knew the most important things
about how the climate could change during
the 21st century.
• How the climate would actually change now
depended chiefly on what policies humanity
would choose for its greenhouse gas
emissions.
• Since 2001, greatly improved computer
models and an abundance of data of many
kinds strengthened the conclusion that
human emissions are very likely to cause
serious climate change.
• In 2007 the IPCC reported that scientists were more
confident than ever that humans were changing the
climate. Although only a small fraction of the
predicted warming had happened so far, effects were
already becoming visible in some regions — more
deadly heat waves, stronger floods and droughts,
heat-related changes in the ranges and behavior of
sensitive species.
• Depending on what steps people took to restrict

emissions, by the end of the century we could
expect the planet’s average temperature to rise
anywhere between about 1.4 and 6°C (2.5 - 11°F).
Summary/1
• 1827- French scientist Fourier was the first to
consider ‘the greenhouse effect’
• 1896- S. Arrhenius blamed the burning of fossil fuels

producing carbon dioxide, the main GHG,
contributing to climate change
• 1950s- Global warming sciences started to grow
• 1979- First World Climate Conference in Geneva,

Switzerland, called on governments to forecast and
prevent potential human-made changes in climate.
Summary/2
• 1988 - The IPCC was established to produce regular
scientific and technical assessments of climate
change.
• 1992 – The UNFCCC was adopted, entering force in

1994.
• 1997 – The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,

Japan, and entered into force in 2005.
Chapter 3. Indicators of Climate Change
What changes How well are the past and present What changes
have occurred? climates understood? could lie ahead?
Observations: � ,I , , , , ,/
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, Simulations:
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• temperatures / / I / /,
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• natural variation
• precipitation • forcing agents
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• snow / ice cover • global climate

• sea level • regional climate
• circulation • high impact events
• extremes • stabilisation
Observations vis-a-vis Simulations
Palaeo & lnstrumental

Time/ine: The Present The Future
Periods
Indicators of Climate Change
Is the Climate Changing ?
"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate

system is unequivocal."
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Scientific Consensus
• Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that
climate-warming trends over the past century are very
likely due to human activities, and most of the leading
scientific organizations worldwide have issued public
statements endorsing this position.
What are the indicators ?
Is the change slow or rapid ?

Concentration indicators
Weather indicators
Biological and physical indicators

Carbon Dioxide
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping
(greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities
such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as
natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.
Carbon Dioxide
The graph shows

CO2 levels measured at
Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii, in
recent years, with
average seasonal cycle
removed.
Direct measurements:
2005-Present (NOAA)
Carbon Dioxide
• On May 9, 2013, CO2 levels in the air reached the level of 400 parts
per million (ppm). This is the first time in human history that this
milestone has been passed.
• The level of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen from around 317 ppm in
1958 (when Charles David Keeling began making his historical
measurements at Mauna Loa) to around 419 ppm today.
• In May 2021 , NOAA's measurements at the mountaintop observatory
averaged 419.13 ppm. Scientists at Scripps calculated a monthly
average of 418.92 ppm. The average in May 2020 was 417 ppm.
Carbon Dioxide
• Charles David Keeling installed CO2 measuring instruments into the
Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii and started to monitor its concentration
starting in 1958.
• As the CO2 record extended, it became increasingly impressive and
each year noticably higher.
Carbon Dioxide – The Keeling Curve
• The Keeling curve based on the Mauna Loa CO2 measurements
started by Charles David Keeling in 1958.
• The measurements have proven to be significant in showing the rate

of CO2 increase in the atmosphere.
• It was the first chart of its kind to show the direct impact of human
activity in the atmosphere.
Carbon Dioxide – The Keeling Curve
Monthly mean carbon dioxide globally
averaged over marine surface sites
A question at this point:
Do we see a change in the CO2 record due to COVID-19

?
See https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/covid2.html
lndicators of the human influence
on the atmosphere during the lndustrial era
CO2(ppm) Radiative forcing (Wnr2 ) N20 (ppb) Radiative forcing (Wm 2)
0.15
360 Carbon Dioxide concentration 1.5 310 Nitrous Oxide concentration
340 0.10
1.0
320 290
0.5 0.05
·. . . . . .. .
300
280 '""
260
o.o 270 • •
.. 0.00
250-ı---------,.-----....--,...----,.-.......--ı
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Sulfur
CH4 (ppb) Radlatlve forclng (Wm· 2 ) rng sot per tonne of ıce
Methane concentration Sulfate aerosols

200
1 750
0.50
deposited in
1 500 50
Greenland ice
S02 emissions
1 250 !rom United States
0.25 100
and Europe
.. ·.· ......... :,
1 000 (MtS yr· 1) 25
750
0.00
o o--.----.--.---.---,--,
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1400 1600 1800 2000
Radiative Forcing (Watts/m2)
Energy is constantly flowing into the atmosphere in the form
of sunlight that always shines on half of the Earth’s surface.
Some of this sunlight (about 30 percent) is reflected back to
space and the rest is absorbed by the planet. And like any
warm object sitting in cold surroundings — and space is a very
cold place — some energy is always radiating back out into
space as invisible infrared light. Subtract the energy flowing
out from the energy flowing in, and if the number is anything
other than zero, there has to be some warming (or cooling, if
the number is negative) going on.
Radiative Forcing (Watts/m2)
Thus radiative forcing, measured in watts per square meter of
surface, is a direct measure of the impact that recent human
activities — including not just greenhouse gases added to the
air, but also the impact of deforestation, which changes the
reflectivity of the surface — are having on changing the
planet’s climate. However, this number also includes any
natural effects that may also have changed during that time,
such as changes in the sun’s output (which has produced a
slight warming effect) and particles spewed into the
atmosphere from volcanoes (which generally produce a very
short-lived cooling effect, or negative forcing).
Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming
(NASA)
NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year
on Record Globally
• Earth's 2016 surface temperatures were the warmest since
modern recordkeeping began in 1880, according to
independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
• Globally-averaged temperatures in 2016 were 1.78 degrees

Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th
century mean.
Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
• Arctic sea ice reaches its
minimum each
September.
• September Arctic sea ice
is now declining at a rate
of 12.8 percent per
decade, relative to the
1981 to 2010 average.
• The graph shows the
average monthly Arctic
sea ice extent each
September since 1979,
derived from satellite
observations.
• The 2012 extent is the
lowest in the satellite
record.
Ice Sheets
• ANTARCTICA MASS VARIATION SINCE 2002
• Rate of change: ↓ 127 Gigatonnes per year
(Data source: Ice mass measurement by NASA's GRACE satellites)
• GREENLAND MASS VARIATION SINCE 2002
• Rate of change: ↓ 286 Gigatonnes per year

Ice Sheets (NASA)
Ice Sheets (NASA)
Ice Sheets
• Data from NASA's GRACE satellites show that the land ice
sheets in both Antarctica and Greenland have been losing
mass since 2002.
• Both ice sheets have seen an acceleration of ice mass loss

since 2009. (Source: GRACE satellite data)
Sea Level Rise
• Sea level rise is caused primarily by two factors related to
global warming:
- the added water from melting land ice

- the expansion of sea water as it warms.
• Rate of Change: + 3.3 mm per year

Sea Level Rise • GROUND DATA: 1870-
2013
• Data source: Coastal
tide gauge records.
Credit: CSIRO
• The graph, derived
from coastal tide gauge
data, shows how much
sea level changed from
about 1870.
Sea Level Rise
SATELLITE DATA:
1993-PRESENT
Data source: Satellite

sea level observations.
Credit: NASA Goddard
Space Flight Center
• Rate of change is +
3.3 mm per year.
Sea Level Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880–2015
Data sources: CSIRO, 2015; NOAA, 2016
• This graph shows cumulative changes
in sea level for the world’s oceans
since 1880, based on a combination
of long-term tide gauge
measurements and recent satellite
measurements.
• This figure shows average absolute
sea level change, which refers to the
height of the ocean surface,
regardless of whether nearby land is
rising or falling.
• Satellite data are based solely on
measured sea level, while the long-
term tide gauge data include a small
correction factor because the size
and shape of the oceans are
changing slowly over time. (On
average, the ocean floor has been
gradually sinking since the last Ice
Age peak, 20,000 years ago.)
Glaciers - This figure shows the cumulative change in mass balance of a set
of “reference” glaciers worldwide beginning in 1945 (WGMS, 2016-US EPA).
The line on the upper graph

represents the average of all
the glaciers that were
measured. Negative values
indicate a net loss of ice and
snow compared with the
base year of 1945.
For consistency,
measurements are in meters
of water equivalent, which
represent changes in the
average thickness of a glacier.
The small chart below shows
how many glaciers were
measured in each year.
Ocean Heat - Trends in the amount of heat stored in the world’s oceans.
Data sources: CSIRO, 2016; MRI/JMA, 2016; NOAA, 2016
This figure shows

changes in ocean heat
content between 1955
and 2015.
Ocean heat content is
measured in joules and
compared against the
1971–2000 average,
which is set at zero for
reference.
Note: CSIRO is Australia’s
Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research
Organisation. MRI/JMA is
Japan’s meteorologic Res. Inst.
Sea Surface Temperature
• This graph shows how the average
surface temperature of the world’s
oceans has changed since 1880.
This graph uses the 1971 to 2000
average as a baseline for depicting
change. Choosing a different
baseline period would not change
the shape of the data over time.
The shaded band shows the range
of uncertainty in the data, based
on the number of measurements
collected and the precision of the
methods used.
Data source: NOAA, 2016
Average Global Sea Surface Temperature, 1880–2015

Sea Surface Temperature (US EPA) • This map shows how
average sea surface
temperature around the
world changed between
1901 and 2015.
• It is based on a
combination of direct
measurements and
satellite measurements. A
black “+” symbol in the
middle of a square on the
map means the trend
shown is statistically
significant. White areas
did not have enough data
to calculate reliable long-
term trends.
Data source: IPCC, 2013;
NOAA, 2016
Snow Cover - Snow-Covered Area in North America, 1972–2015.
Data source: Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, 2016.
• Between 1972
and 2015, the
average extent
of North
American snow
cover decreased
at a rate of
about 3,300
square miles per
year.
Bio Indicators of Climate Change
• Changes in the timing of biological events (phenology)
have been observed. These include changes in the
timing of growth, flowering and reproduction. Such
changes have been recorded in some insects,
amphibians, reptiles, birds, and plant species.
• Changes in species distribution linked to changes in
climatic factors have been observed. These include
extension of range limit of some species polewards,
especially in the northern hemisphere. Drought
associated shifts in animal’s ranges and densities have
been observed in many parts of the world.
• Many taxa (birds, insects, plants) have shown changes
in morphology, physiology, and behavior associated
with changes in climatic variables.
• Changes in climatic variables has led to increased
frequency and intensity of outbreaks of pests and
diseases accompanied by range shifts poleward or to
higher altitudes of the pests/disease organisms.
• In high-latitude ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere,
the warmer climate has lead to increased growing degree-
days for agriculture and forestry. However, the amount of
sunlight and perhaps the proportion of direct and diffuse
sunlight also influence plant productivity. There has been
altered plant species composition, especially forbs and
lichens in the tundra, due to thermokarst, some boreal
forests in central Alaska have been transformed into
extensive wetlands during the last few decades of the
20th century. The area of boreal forest burned annually in
western North America has doubled in the last 20 years,
in parallel with the warming trend in the region.
• There has been observed decrease in survivorship of
adult penguins. Over the past 50 years, the
population of emperor penguins in Terre Adelie has
declined by 50% because of a decrease in adult
survival during the late 1970s when there was a
prolonged abnormally warm period with reduced sea-
ice extent (Barbraud and Weimersckirch 2001).
• Extreme climatic events, and variability (e.g., floods,
hail, freezing temperatures, tropical cyclones,
droughts), and the consequences of some of these
(e.g., landslides and wildfire) have affected
ecosystems in many continents. Climatic events such
as the El Niño event of the years 1997–1998 had
major impacts on many terrestrial ecosystems.
El niño
El niño
El niño
El Niño
 During normal years the sea surface
temperature is about 8 degrees C higher in the
west, with cool temperatures off South America,
due to an upwelling of cold water from deeper
levels. This cold water is nutrient-rich, supporting
high levels of primary productivity, diverse
marine ecosystems, and major fisheries. Rainfall
is found in rising air over the warmest water, and
the east Pacific is relatively dry. The
observations at 110 W (left diagram of 110 W
conditions- next slide) show that the cool water
(below about 17 degrees C, the black band in
these plots) is within 50m of the surface.
El Niño
El Niño
 During El Niño, the trade winds relax in the central and
western Pacific leading to a depression of the
thermocline in the eastern Pacific, and an elevation of
the thermocline in the west. The observations at 110W
show, for example, that during 1982-1983, the 17-degree
isotherm dropped to about 150m depth. This reduced the
efficiency of upwelling to cool the surface and cut off the
supply of nutrient rich thermocline water to the euphotic
zone. The result was a rise in sea surface temperature
and a drastic decline in primary productivity, the latter of
which adversely affected higher trophic levels of the food
chain, including commercial fisheries in this region.
El Niño
 The weakening of easterly tradewinds during El
Niño is evident in this figure (next slide) as well.
Rainfall follows the warm water eastward, with
associated flooding in Peru and drought in
Indonesia and Australia. The eastward
displacement of the atmospheric heat source
overlaying the warmest water results in large
changes in the global atmospheric circulation,
which in turn force changes in weather in
regions far removed from the tropical Pacific.
El Niño of 1997
Effects of El Niño events
 During an El Niño year, tropical rains usually
centered over Indonesia shift eastward,
influencing atmospheric wind patterns world
wide. Possible impacts include: a shifting of the
jet stream, storm tracks and monsoons,
producing unseasonable weather over many
regions of the globe. During the El Niño event of
1982-1983, some of the abnormal weather
patterns observed included:
 Drought in Southern Africa, Southern India, Sri
Lanka, Philippines, Indonesia, Australia,
Southern Peru, Western Bolivia, Mexico, Central
America Heavy rain and flooding in Bolivia,
Ecuador, Northern Peru, Cuba, U.S. Gulf States
Hurricanes in Tahiti, Hawaii
La Niña
La Niña is characterized by unusually cold
ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific,
as compared to El Niño, which is
characterized by unusually warm ocean
temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. La
Niña tends to bring nearly opposite effects of
El Niño to the United States — wetter than
normal conditions across the Pacific
Northwest and dryer and warmer than
normal conditions across much of the South.
La Niña
La Niña
The last La Nina occurred from mid 2010

through mid 2011, and it coincided with
severe drought across the Southeast. One
of the characteristics of a La Nina is dry
weather in SE USA, and if a La Nina does
develop, a very dry summer may be
expected. A La Nina can also bring an
active hurricane season. When a La Nina
develops in the Pacific, wind shear weakens
in the tropical Atlantic, making it easier for
tropical systems to develop and strengthen.
La Niña
Chapter 4.
The Greenhouse Effect

The Natural Greenhouse Effect
• The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring
process that aids in heating the Earth's surface and
atmosphere.
• It results from the fact that certain atmospheric
gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, and
methane, are able to change the energy balance of
the planet by absorbing longwave radiation emitted
from the Earth's surface.
• Without the greenhouse effect, life on this planet
would probably not exist, as the average
temperature of the Earth would be a chilly - 18°C,
rather than the present 15°C.
The Earth’s radiation & heat balance
The Greenhouse Effect
• Greenhouse gases are transparent to visible
and near-infrared wavelengths of sun-light,
but they absorb and re-radiate downward a
large fraction of the longer far-infrared
wavelengths (heat).
• As the atmosphere is responsible for

trapping the sun’s heat, let us look at its
chemical composition (on dry basis).
• Thermonuclear reactions taking place on
Sun produce huge quantities of radiation that
travel through space at the speed of light.
• This solar radiation includes energy

distributed across a wide band of the
electromagnetic spectrum from short-
wavelength X rays to medium wave-length
visible light, to longer-wavelength infrared.
• The greatest amount of energy (44 %) is in

the spectral region, visible to human eye
from 0.4 to 0.7 μm.
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Spectral distribution of incoming solar
radition
• As incoming solar radiation passes through the
atmosphere, particles and gases absorb energy.
• Due to its physical or chemical structure, each

particle or gas has specific wavelength regions that
transmit energy and other regions that absorb
energy.
• A large percentage of incoming solar radiation is in

the visible region. Atmospheric water vapor, carbon
dioxide and methane have low absorption in this
region and allow most of the visible light to reach the
surface of the Earth.
• After absorption by the Earth’s surface, visible

energy is transformed and radiated back in the far-
infrared (heat) region of the spectrum at wavelengths
greater than 1.5 μm.
• The transperancy of the atmosphere to outgoing far-
infrared radiation (heat) determines how much heat
can escape from the Earth back into space and how
much is trapped.
• Greenhouse gases are opaque to certain infrared

wavelengths: They absorb them !
• Water vapor, carbon dioxide and methane, that

transmits visible wavelengths, absorb in the far
infrared; They trap heat in the troposphere and stop
it escaping to space.
l��
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• Most of the ultraviolet light (UV) is absorbed by
ozone (O3) and oxygen (O2) in the stratosphere.
• Carbon dioxide has three large absorption bands in

the infrared region; at 15, 4.3 and 2.7 μm.
• Water vapor strongly absorbs thermal radiation with

wavelengths less than 8 μm and greater than 18 μm.
• Radiatively active gases that absorb wavelengths

longer than 4 μm are called Greenhouse gases. This
absorption heats the atmosphere, which, in turn,
radiates energy back to the Earth as well as out to
space.
• These greenhouse gases act as a thermal blanket
around the globe, raising the Earth’s surface
temperature.
• Simply put, greenhouse gases trap heat in the lower
atmosphere and keep the Earth warm.
• As long as the amount of incoming solar energy and

the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
remain fairly constant, the temperature of the Earth
remains in balance.
• However, the greater the amount of greenhouse

gases, the greater the amount of long-wave (heat)
radiation trapped in the lower atmosphere !
The Runaway Greenhouse Effect
Formation of Venus atmosphere:
• After the formation and cooling of the planet, there was

no atmosphere in the beginning. However, as it was
close to the sun, the average surface temperature was
around 50oC.
• Water on the surface of the planet started to evaporate

and form an atmosphere.
• As water vapour is a greenhouse gas, this would cause

the temperature at the surface to rise. The increased
temperature would lead to more evaporation of water
(and other liquids as well).
• This would lead to more atmospheric water vapour
and a larger greenhouse effect and therefore a
further increased surface temperature.
• This process would continue until the atmosphere

became saturated with water vapour or all the
available water had evaporated. This is called the
“runaway greenhouse effect.”
• In time other gases would accumulate in this

atmosphere and the initial water vapour would be
lost to space.
• Today, the atmosphere of Venus contains carbon

dioxide, water vapour and sulfuric acid droplets. It is
extremely thick with these clouds, therefore sunlight
cannot penetrate onto the planet’s surface.
• However, due to the greenhouse effect, the average
temperature is over 500oC .
• The Earth and Mars, being farther away from the sun,
started at much lower temperatures. Therefore, at
some stage water vapour was in equilibrium with
liquid water or ice. This prevented the runaway
greenhouse effect.
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• The natural greenhouse effect is due to the gases
water vapour and carbon dioxide (we have a few
more gases of relatively minor effect).
• The amount of water vapour in our atmosphere

depends mostly on the temperature of the surface of
the oceans. Therefore, most of it originates through
evaporation from the ocean surface and is not
influenced directly by human activity.
The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• Carbon dioxide is different. Its amount has
increased after the industrial revolution due to
human involvement:
– Combustion generating CO2
• Industry
• Transportation
• Power generation
– Loss of CO2 sinks

• Deforestation
Greenhouse Gases
• Historically, greenhouse gas concentrations in the
Earth´s atmosphere have undergone natural
changes over time and those changes have been
closely followed by changes in climate.
• Warmer periods were associated with higher

atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and
cooler periods with lower atmospheric greenhouse
gas concentrations.
Greenhouse Gases
• However, those changes were part of natural cycles
and took place over periods of tens of thousands to
million of years.
• Recent human-induced changes in atmospheric

chemistry have occurred over decades
(Ramanathan, 1988).
• Thus, climate change is attributed directly or

indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere in addition to
natural climate variability, observed over
comparable time periods.
Greenhouse Gases
• Human activities generate several different
greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.
• From the previous section, we know that CO2 and

H2O(vap) are greenhouse gases. We usually keep
H2O(vap) apart, since human influence on the overall
hydrological cycle is negligible.
• Water vapor traps heat in the atmosphere and makes
contribution to the greenhouse effect.
• Its level is not influenced directly by human

activities, however, since warmer air can hold more
water vapor, an increase in the Earth´s temperature
resulting from other greenhouse gases produces a
positive feedback.
• That means more warming means more water vapor

in the atmosphere, which, in turn, contributes to
more warming.
Hydrological Cycle
Atmosphere
12.7
Ocean to land
-:-:=-=-=-
Water vapor transp ort --------
40
c�
ttt
Ground water flow
Units: Thousand cubic km for storage, and thousand cubic kmlyrfor exchanges
GHG Categories GWP Major Sources
Carbon dioxide (CO2) 1 Fossil fuel combustion,
deforestation
Methane (CH4) 25 Landfills, rice paddies,

digestive tracts of cattle &
sheep
Nitrous oxide (N2O) 298 Fertilizer, animal waste
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) up to 14.800 Semiconductor

manufacturing
Semiconductor
manufacturing, alumininum
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) up to 12.200
smelting
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) 22.800 Electrical tranmission

systems, Mg & Al
production
Major characteristics of the most
important GHGs (IPCC, 2007)
Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
Atmos. Conc.
Pre-industrial 280 ppm 715 ppb 270 ppb
1998 366 ppm 1763 ppb 314 ppb
2005 379 ppm 1774 ppb 319 ppb
Change in Atmos.
Conc. (%)
Pre-industrial-2005 + 31 + 147 + 16
1998-2005 +4 +1 +2
Atmospheric 50-200 12 114
lifetime (years)
Radiative forcing 1.66 0.48 0.16
2005 (W/m2)
Radiative Forcing
• Radiative forcing is the difference between solar
irradiance (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and
energy radiated back to space.
• The post-industrial increases in GHG have resulted
in an increase in global radiative forcing (warming)
of 2.45 watts per square meter (W/m2).
• This accounts only for 1 % of the net incoming solar
radition, but it amounts to the energy content of
about 1.8 billion tonnes of oil every minute
(UNFCCC, 2002).
• Each GHG contributes to this warming and each of
GHG has different warming potentials.
• The lifetime of the gas in the atmosphere also affects
its resultant concentration and warming potential.
Radiative Forcing
Components
Anthropogenic and natura! forcing of the climate for the year 2000, relative to 1750
Global mean radiative forcing (Wm-2)
Greenhouse gases
3
Halocarbons
N20
I Aerosols + clouds
CH4 Black
carbon
from
fossil
Tropospheric fuel Mineral
burning Dust Aviation
I Contrails Cirrus
I
o
I
Stratospheric Organic
I
ozone carbon Biomass Land use
Sulphate from (albedo only)
C>
C: -1 buming
fossil
fuel
burning
-2
The height of a bar indicates a besi estimate of the forcing, and the Aerosol
accompanying vertical line a likely range of values. Where no bar is present indirect
the vertical line only indicates the range in besi estimates with no likelihood. effect
LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC Very Very Very Very Very Very Very

UNDERSTANDING
High Medium Medium Low low low low low low low low
Greenhouse Gases-Carbon dioxide
• A natural component of the atmosphere & very

reactive.
• It can be reduced to organic carbon biomass via

photosynthetic uptake in plants and via biological
oxidation (respiration), converted back to gaseous
CO2 and returned to the atmosphere.
• Major natural sources to the atmosphere;

- Animal respiration
- Microbial breakdown of dead organic matter & soil C
- Ocean to atmosphere exchange (flux)
• Major sink for CO2;
- Photosynthetic uptake by plants
- Atmosphere to ocean flux
• These natural cycles maintained the atmospheric

CO2 concentration at about 280 ± 10 ppmv (parts per
million by volume) for several thousands years prior
to industrialization in the mid-nineteenth century.
• During the past 150 years, and especially during the

last lew decades, humans greatly increased the
concentration of atmospheric CO2.
• Huge reservoirs of C, stored for millions of years as
fossilized organic C (coal, oil & gas) in the Earth’s
crust, have been removed and burned for fuel.
• When C fuels burn, they combine with atmospheric

oxygen to produce CO2, which enters the
atmosphere.
• Globally, 80 % of human CO2 emissions come from

transportation and industrial sources.
• The remaining 20 % comes primarily from

deforestation and biomass burning.
• Carbonate minerals used in cement manufacturing
also release CO2 to the atmosphere.
• These sources together contribute 6.5 billions tons

(or gigatons) of carbon (GtC) to the atmosphere each
year.
• The rate of addition to the atmosphere from these

sources exceeds the rate of loss to major CO2 sinks
by about 3.3 GtC per year.
• Thus, the atmospheric CO2 concentration continues

to increase.
Fast and slow processes in the carbon cycle
A t m o s p h e r ç C O 2
Fossilfuel
Surface water •
il
Deepwater
Speed of exchange processes

-► VefY fast (less than 1 year)
Fast (1 to 10 years)
Skıw(10 !O 100 yeaıs)
-► Ve<y skıw (ıoore than 100 years)
Carbon Cycle
• By the end of the 20. century, the atmospheric CO2
concentration had risen to over 367 ppmv; 31 %
above its pre-industrial level.
• CO2 concentration continues to increase

exponentially at about 0.5 % per year and the present
atmospheric CO2 concentration has not been
exceeded during the past 420,000 or perhaps even
20 million years (Houghton et al., 2001).
• Even if current CO2 emissions are reduced and

maintained at or near 1994 rates, the atmospheric
CO2 concentration will keep on increasing during
this century.
CO2 in the Oceans
• The major long-term reservoir (sink) for CO2 is the
deep ocean.
• Atmospheric CO2 dissolves in seawater to form

bicarbonate and hydrogen ions, thus acidifying
(lowering the pH) seawater.
• The natural pH of the oceans is 8.0-8.3.
• The solubility of CO2 decreases with increasing

temperature.Therefore, as the ocean warms, its
ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere will
decrease.
• As water temperature increases, its ability dissolve
CO2 decreases.
• Global warming is expected to reduce the ocean’s

ability to absorb CO2, leaving more in the
atmosphere, which will lead to even higher
temperatures.
Solubility Pump
• Carbon dioxide is continually exchanged with the air
above the ocean across the whole ocean surface,
particularly as waves break.
• An equilibrium is established between CO2 in the

water and in the air above.
• Le Chatelier’s principle regarding this exchange

says that if the atmospheric concentration of CO2
changes by 10 %, the concentration in solution in the
water changes by only 1%.
Solubility Pump
• So, when atmospheric CO2 concentration increases,
more CO2 can dissolve in oceans.
• However, if this surface water (with more CO2 in it)

stays at the surface and warms up as it moves
around the globe, the CO2 will quickly escape back
to the atmosphere.
• If the surface waters sink to the deep ocean, then the

carbon can be stored for more than 1000 years
before the ocean circulation returns it to the surface.
• This process whereby CO2 is gradually drawn from

the atmosphere in the ocean’s lower layers is known
as the Solubility Pump.
Biological Pump
• As well as physical removal, carbon dioxide is also
taken up by phytoplankton in photosynthesis and
converted into plant material.
• Land plants and marine phytoplankton take up about

the same amounts of carbon dioxide as each other,
but marine phytoplankton grow much much faster
than land plants.
• Most of the carbon dioxide taken up by

phytoplankton is returned to the atmosphere when
the phytoplankton die or are eaten, but some is lost
to the deep sea sediments in sinking particles. The
sinking of this plant material is known as the
biological pump.
Feedback Processes
• As carbon dioxide and methane are added to the
atmosphere through human activities, physical and
biochemical feedback processes influence the
overall effect of their concentration increase in the
atmosphere.
– Positive feedback: Accelerates and aggrevates

the process.
– Negative feedback: Slows down and pacifies the

process.
Examples of Positive Feedbacks
• Respiration by microorganisms increase as
temperature increases  more and more CO2 input
to the atmosphere.
• Release of methane from wetlands and sediments.
As temperature increases, more methane is
released. More methane  increase in temperature
 more methane, and so on.
• Temperature increase  increase in evaporation 

more H2O(vap) in the atmosphere  temperature
increase  yet more increase in evaporation.
Example of Positive Feedback
with Ice Albedo Effect
• Temperature increase  melting of ice in the Arctic
and Antarctic circles  reflection of Sun’s rays
diminishes  more of the Sun’s energy stays on the
surface and is converted to heat  more heat more
melting of the ice. This is a powerful feedback
explaining, in part, why the Arctic is warming faster.
• In warming climates, people use more air

conditioning and thus more fossil fuels. The
resulting increase in CO2 could lead to additional
global warming.
Examples of Negative Feedbacks
• As global warming occurs, the warmth and
additional CO2 could stimulate algal growth. This, in
turn, could could absorb CO2, reducing the
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and cooling
Earth’s climate.
• Increased CO2 concentration with warming might

stimulate growth of land plants, leading to increased
CO2 absorption and reducing the GH effect.
• If polar regions receive more precipitation from

warmer air carrying more moisture, the increasing
snowpack and ice build-up could reflect solar energy
away from Earth’s surface, causing cooling.
Methane
• Methane (CH4) is produced by the microbial
breakdown of organic matter in the absence of free
oxygen (O2).
• Methane (CH4) is emitted from a variety of both
human-related (anthropogenic) and natural sources.
• Natural sources include:
- Wetland soils
- Swamps
- Some coastal sediments
• Its atmospheric concentration has increased by 150
% since 1750 and is increasing rapidly by about 1.1
% per year. About half the current methane
emissions are from human sources.
• Human-related (anthropogenic) sources include:
- Livestock production
- Wetland rice cultivation
- Solid waste landfills
- Coal, oil & gas production
• Global emission rates of methane appear to be

variable and are difficult to quantify (Houghton et al.,
2001).
Source: NASA
Change in methane abundance
CH4(ppb) Radatlvo fıırclng (Wm • 2) CH4(ppb)
2000 06 1800
Last 1 000 Years Global average and

1 750 05 deseasonalised methane abundance
1983-1999
1 750
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
CH4(ppb per yoar)

20
Annual Growth Rate

15
10
WG1 TS FIGURE 11
Nitrous Oxide
• N2O originates from;
- Microbial breakdown of agricultural fertilizers,
- Fossil-fuel combustion,
- Biomass burning
• Coal combustion is a major contributor of N2O to the

atmosphere.
• It has a long atmospheric lifetime (120-150 years).
• Its atmospheric concentration has increased by 16 %

since the industrialization era and continues to
increase by about 0.25 % per year.
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) &
Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)
• These are relatively inert class of manufactured
industrial compounds containing carbon, chlorine and
florine atoms.
• They are used as;

- Coolants in refrigerators and in air conditioners,
- Foam insulation,
- Aerosol sprays,
- Industrial cleaning solvents.
• These compounds escape to the atmosphere and they

destroy the stratospheric ozone layer that shields the
Earth from harmful UV radiation.
UV Index for Human Exposure
(US EPA, 2004)
Exposure Category UV Index Comment
Low <2 Sunblock recommended

for all exposure
Moderate 3 to 5 Sunburn can occur

quickly
High 6 to 7 Potentially hazardous
Very high 8 to 10 Potentially very

hazardous
Extreme 11 Potentially very

hazardous
Montreal Protocol
• The signing of Montreal Protocol in September 1987
was an important diplomatic achievement; 27 nations
signed the agreement originally and additional 119
signed later.
• The protocol outlined a plan to eventually reduce

global emissions of CFCs to 50 % of 1986 emissions.
• An eventual phase-out all CFC consumption is part of

the Montreal Protocol.
Source: Botkin & Keller, 2011.

Montreal Protocol
• Stratospheric concentrations of CFCs are expected to
return to pre-1980 levels by about 2050, and the rate
of increase of CFC emissions has already been
reduced.
• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are the long-term

substitute for CFCs, since they do not contain
chlorine.
Source: Botkin & Keller, 2011.

Projected growth in blowing-agent consumption in rigid foams beyond 2000
SROC
SROCFigure TSTS
Figure -1 -14
Annual global blowing-agent emissions by group (1990-2015)
SROC
SROCFigure
FigureTS
TS-1-15
5. Climates of the Past
• Earth is about 4.5 billion years old.
• Earth and other planets were originally
formed from a cloud of rotating interstellar
gas and dust and debris from a supernova
explosion. At the very centre of this
rotating cloud the Sun was born.
Formatıon of the
Earth and the Moon. o
3.5 billion
o o
o o =
o 4 billion years ago
� 3 billion
years ago • �� years ago
Many meteors Appearance of the The earliest
4.5 billion hit the Earth. primitive life forms. • DThe first oxygen-
known fossils.
years ago • • producing
0 0 photosynthetic
O •� organisms.
G) � C. O2 02 O2 0 000 •
o. • De •
" ıC"'\
• c. @ @"� � 2 billion O
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c.
yea ago 2 •
l .5 billion � � 2.5 billion
· �� c.@
l billion � :
years ago �r=) years ago �2...........J �2...........J years ago
One-celled Oxygen-rich
The first � The first one-celled organisms atmosphere
ulticelled �, sexual organisms. with a nucleus.
$
¼
9
1
:::: , �
nimals.
0.5billion
years ago O
Dinosaurs, between
c=::>- �
Present
225 and 65 million Early humans have appeared

2 to 3 million years ago.
• Since about 650 million years ago Earth’s
climate changed abruptly. There have
been long cool periods followed by long
warm periods.
.....
C>
JV'1iocene C>
�
early Jurossic
Origin of Life on Earth
• Life as we know it began in the oceans
about 3.8 billion years ago.
• The first organisms were anaerobic
archaea. These were prokaryotes, i.e they
multipied by self replication. Later
cyanobacteria appeared and with
photosynthesis, oxygen began to
accumulate in the atmosphere.
• About 1.4 billion years ago eukaryotic
organisms started to appear. Eukaryotes
multiplied by cell division and sexual
reproduction. This was a major
breakthrough in the origin of life.
• Not much happened until about 640 million
years ago – the late Proterozoic era. Here
small marine organisms evolved.
• About 540 - 520 million years ago a rapid
diversification of marine organisms was
observed. These were all skeletonized sea
creatures. We call this the Cambrian
Explosion.
• The next 100 million years (Ordovician
period) many new classes of animals
evolved. Terrestrial creatures started to
appear.
• The common marine organisms in the
Ordovician period (488-439 mya) were
sponges, starfish, and various nautiloids
(cephalopods). Terrestrial organisms were
confined to mosses and very small plants.
• The Ordovician period ended with a mass
extinction, caused by rapid drop in
temperature and drop in sea level.
• Among the creatures that survived the
mass extinction were the agnathans which
later developed into small bony fishes
during the Silurian (439-408 mya) and
Devonian (408-354 mya) periods. These
were the ancestors of today’s fishes.
• By the late Devonian period terrestial
organisms evolved into larger plants and
trees. There were no animals yet.
• During the Carboniferous period (354-290
mya) the first winged insects evolved.
• During the Permian period (290-251 mya)
continents come together to make a large
land mass called Pangaea. The sea level
dropped to its lowest point. By the end of
this period a great mass extiction swept
away nearly 96 % of all species.
• The Mesozoic era divided into Triassic
(250-200 mya), Jurassic (200-145 mya)
and Cretaceous (145-65.5 mya) periods is
usually known as the Age of Reptiles.
During this era Pangea begins to break
up. The northern part, Laurasia separates
into fragments which later will make up N.
America and Europe.
• In this era many varieties of molluscs,
crabs, large fishes and marine reptiles
dwelled the oceans.
• The terrestrial environment was dominated
by huge plants and trees, and gigantic
dinasours of many varieties. Some
dinasours were carnivores and some were
herbivores.
• At the end of the Cretaceous period
another massive extinction took place.
This is called the K/T extinction (from
Cretaceous and Tertiary). Many species
including all dinosaurs and marine reptiles
became extinct. This opened a new era
which resulted in the development and
evolution of mammals.
• After K/T boundary, the series of epochs
called Paleocene, Eocene, Oligocene,
Miocene and Pliocene make up the
Tertiary period. We are presently in the
Quaternary period and in the Holocene
epoch (the last 10,000 years).
Evolution of Humans
• The mammals originated from mammal-
like reptiles called therapsids that
fluorished until the middle Jurrasic period.
Their descendants survived the K/T
extinction. During the first two epochs after
K/T mammals diversified into many
varieties some of which are ancestors of
modern animals.
Evolution of Humans
• The first primates appeared during the
Oligocene and first apes during the
Miocene, about 22 mya. Chimpanzees
and homonids diverged between 5-6 mya.
• The earliest human-like homonids were
Australopithecus aferensis (3.5 mya)
Evolution of Humans
• Austalopithecus africanus (3.0-2.5 mya)
• Homo habilis (1.9-1.5 mya)
• Homo erectus (1.6-0.2 mya)
• Homo sapiens (120,000 – today)
The Past Million Years
The dashed line here is the present global

average temperature of 15 ˚C. Note that the
temperature drops about 5 ˚C (max) during
glaciation. This has occurred every 100,000
years
The Past Million Years – How do
we derive temperature ?
• Because isotopic fractions of the heavier
oxygen-18 (18O) and deuterium (2H) in snowfall
are temperature-dependent and a strong spatial
correlation exists between the annual mean
temperature and the mean isotopic fraction of
18O or 2H in precipitation, it is possible to derive
temperature records from the records of those

isotopes in ice cores.
Methods of Determining Past
Climates & Ecosystems
• Three isotopes of oxygen occur naturally; 16O, 17O
and 18O.
• Water (H2O) contains both the light isotope (16O) and

the much rarer heavy isotope (18O).
• When water evaporates, the lighter isotope (H216O)

evaporates at a faster rate.
• Therefore, the ratio of 18O to 16O in rain, snow and ice

decreases as the air temperature, and thus
evaporation, increases.
• The reverse happens when water condenses and the
heavier (H218O) preferantially condenses compared to
(H216O).
Methods of Determining Past
Climates & Ecosystems
• Polar ice cores have provided invaluable insights to
climate.
• Each year, snow deposits to form surface ice, which

is then buried the next year. Thus, the ice provides a
stratigraphic record from the recent (shallow) to the
distant past (deep).
• In 1982, Russian scientists removed ice cores from

the Antarctic ice sheet down to a depth of 2,083 m:
Vostok core.
Vostok Ice Core Drilling Site
- 70 ppm
emperature and C02 concentration in the atmosp ere over the ast 4 O years/
COı concentratlon, ppmv (f o t e Vostok ice co e)
2002,/
280
260
o
220
200
180
160-'---.---,--.--..--.---.-�..---.-�---.--.---,--,---r-...-..r--....---..--.--..---,--.--,.--,.--.--..-�
400000 350000 300000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100000 50000 o
Year before present (presan = 1950)
Tempenıture ctıınge ftom present, C

4C
2'C
O'C
-�
• C
-�
-acıc
-HJ'"C •ı----.--....,.........,.--....-.-------r---.---.--.----..----..,...----....,.........,.-.....,......-,----r---r---�
.woooo 350000 300000 2:50 000 200 000 150 000 100000 50000 o
Year befOre present (presen 1950)
• The deuterium content distribution is well
documented over East Antarctica and over a
large range of temperatures (-20° to -55° C);
there is a linear relationship between the
average annual surface temperature and the
snow deuterium content. The slope of this
δD/surface temperature relationship was found
by Jouzel et al. (1993, 1996) and Petit et al.
(1999) to be 9°/°° per °C. Further details on the
methodology are presented in Jouzel et al.
(1987), Lorius et al. (1985), and Petit et al.
(1999).
Dome C, Antarctica 76°06' S,
123°21'E 3233 m above MSL
• The record presented by Jouzel et al. (1987),
based on data in a 2083-meter ice core from the
Russian Vostok station in central east
Antarctica, was the first such record to span a
full glacial-interglacial cycle. Drilling continued at
Vostok until January 1998, reaching a depth of
3623 m, and a corresponding time of ~420 kyr
BP. More recently, a 740-kyr deuterium record
has been extracted from an ice core taken at
Dome C (EPICA Community Members, 2004).
Deuterium fractions were determined in
meltwater from 55-cm long sections of the ice
core from the surface down to the bottom of the
The Past Million Years – How do we derive
temperature ? References
• EPICA Community Members. 2004. Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core. Nature
429:623-628.
• Jouzel, J., C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, C. Genthon, N.I. Barkov, V.M. Kotlyakov, and V.M.Petrov. 1987.
Vostok ice core: a continuous isotope temperature record over the last climatic cycle (160,000
years). Nature 329:403-8.
• Jouzel, J., N.I. Barkov, J.M. Barnola, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz, C. Genthon, V.M. Kotlyakov, V.
Lipenkov, C. Lorius, J.R. Petit, D. Raynaud, G. Raisbeck, C. Ritz, T. Sowers, M. Stievenard, F.
Yiou, and P. Yiou. 1993. Extending the Vostok ice-core record of palaeoclimate to the penultimate
glacial period. Nature 364:407-12.
• Jouzel, J., C. Waelbroeck, B. Malaize, M. Bender, J.R. Petit, M. Stievenard, N.I. Barkov, J.M.
Barnola, T. King, V.M. Kotlyakov, V. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, D. Raynaud, C. Ritz, and T. Sowers.
1996. Climatic interpretation of the recently extended Vostok ice records. Climate Dynamics
12:513-521.
• Lorius, C., J. Jouzel, C. Ritz, L. Merlivat, N.I. Barkov, Y.S. Korotkevich, and V.M. Kotlyakov. 1985.
A 150,000-year climatic record from Antarctic ice. Nature 316:591-96.
• Petit, J.R., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, N.I. Barkov, J.-M. Barnola, I. Basile, M. Bender, J. Chappellaz,
M. Davis, G. Delayque, M. Delmotte, V.M. Kotlyakov, M. Legrand, V.Y. Lipenkov, C. Lorius, L.
P�in, C. Ritz, E. Saltzman, and M. Stievenard. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past
420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436.
Warming up After the Last
Glacier Period
Note here the rapid temperature increase from

10,000 years ago onward (10,000 to 9,800 years
ago. The rise in the average temperature of
about 4 oC in 200 years is remarkable.)
Last 1500 years
Last Thousand Years
Note the little ice age between 1500 – 1700 AD.

Mountain glaciers advanced in Europe and
rivers like the Thames in England froze solid.
This does not happen now.
Last Thousand Years
Causes of Past Climate Change
• The 100,000 years long glaciation cycles in the

past million years is probably due to the
variation in the Earth’s orbit.
– Earth moves around the sun in a slightly elliptical
orbit. Closest to the sun the Earth is at perihelion at a
distance of 147.1 million km. At its furthest distance
(aphelion) it is 152.1 million km away.
– The long axis of the elliptical orbit also revolves
around the sun. The average resolution period is
96,600 years.
– Earth’s axis of rotation with respect to the

plane of its orbit is not normal (upright). It
wobbles and makes one revolution in about
26,000 years. This is known as the
precession of the equinoxes.
– The tilt of the Earth’s axis of rotation from the
normal to the ecliptic also varies undergoing a
small oscillation with a period of 40,000 years.
The angle varies between 24˚ 36’ and 21˚ 59’.
At present it is 23˚27’ and decreasing.
Precession
Milankovitch Theory
• The Milankovitch Theory,
named after Serbian
mathematician who first
proposed it, is
astronomical or orbital
theory of climate
variations. Since these
ideas were put forward,
much evidence from
paleoclimatic records has
been found to support the
theory.
Milankovitch Theory
• The original Milankovitch theory identifies three
types of variation in the Earth’s orbit around the
Sun which could act as mechanisms to change
the global climate. These include
– changes in the tilt of the Earth’s axis (obliquity),
– changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit (eccentricity)
– The shifting of the equinoxes (precession)
Each variation has its specific time period, the
shortest being 19,000 years and the longest
being 400,000 years
Precession
19, 22 .. 24 kyr
blj'q�ı y
4 kyt
Ecce ty
95, 12·�·, 40 -yr
Solar Forairng
5 elf'
es of
· ıa ıon
1 1
Milankovitch Theory
• The three orbital variations together affect
the total amount of sunlight received by
the Earth, and distribution of that sunlight
at different latitudes and at different times.
With time periods measured in tens of
thousand years, one would expect that
changes in climate as a result of orbital
variations would occur over similar time
periods.
Milankovitch Theory
• Indeed, the Milankovitch theory of climate
change has been used to explain the
global climate of the last 2 million years,
with changes between warmer interglacial
periods and colder ice ages occurring over
a 100,000 year cycle, as predicted by the
Milankovitch theory of climate change.
Chapter 6.
Weather Forecasting, Climate
Modelling & Prediction
 Weather forecasting, climate modelling and
prediction require a mathematical description of
the way in which energy from the sun enters the
atmosphere from above, some being reflected
by the surface or by clouds and some being
absorbed at the land and ocean surfaces or in
the atmosphere. All these require powerful
computer support.
Solar radiation Thermal radiation
ıL
Top of the
Atmosphere Density (depends on T and P)
Atmosphere Motion (horizontal and vertical)

Con11 position (H20 vapour, C02 clouds, ete.)
Surface
Surface exchange of heat,

monıentum and H20 vapour
Weather Forecasting
 Weather forecasting for a few days ahead
requires a model covering the whole globe
 Such a model would consist of grid points
along the Earth’s surface and extending
vertically to cover a part of the atmosphere
(such as 30 km)
Basic Equations of the Atmosphere and Oceans in 3-D
Mass
8p d(up) d(vp) d(wp)
Continuity Bt dx dy dz
+ pressure
au d(uu) d(vu) d(wu) gradient
= +
at - dx - dy - dz ... \
Equations of + Corio/is
Motion 8v _ d(uv) _ d(vv) _ d( wv) _______.. force
= + ___
I
(momentu m at dx dy dz
+ gravity
continuity)
aw = _ d(uw) _ d(vw) _ d(ww) + ...
t dx dv dz + friction
Thermodynamic
Equation BT
-
d uT)
---
d(vT)
(energy continuity)
Bt dx dy
J : radiıation, conduction, llatent heat release, ete
D(l / p) / Ot : conversıion between thermal and mechanical energy in fluid system
Chemical 8z d(ux) d(vx) d(wx) + Chemica/ Production

Continuity
8t dX dy dz- - Chemica/ Loss
Equation
Weather Forecasting
 These are numerical representations of

dynamic equations such as the equation of
continuity, equation of momentum
transport in the horizontal, and the
hydrostatic equation
 Other equations such as the equation of
state, the thermodynamic equation,
equations describing convective
processes and heat transfer are also
incorporated
Weather Forecasting
 Allthese equations are integrated with

respect to time so that after a known initial
state, the future state (up to a few days)
may be computed
 Accuracy of weather forecasts have
increased in the last decades because of
the increase in the storage capacity, and
speed of computers which enables the
modeller to increase model resolution
forecast mod
ellng
Tlmııtep5- Omhıleı
Gdcl ıpaclng 0-2> lem
rlcal aıchcınge
aeenlMılı
�... caıunw.
Horlıı0nlal aıchcınge
v... ,••
at
Vcıılablıı
lıı ıOipheılc coıun..:
a
ttıeıuıfac:r.
Wind vectors
Temper ature mi
Humidi ty Hu dty
Clouds
Pressure
Moisture flu xe s Temperature
Hei gh t
Heat fluxes Precipitatio n
Radia tion flu xe s Aerosoıs
A broken line of supercell
thunderstorms that produced
tornadoes across parts of the
eastern U.S. on the afternoon and
evening of September 26, 2009
(see satellite image at right) was
well forecast by the high-resolution
3-km Model for Predicting Across
Scales (MPAS) based on
conditions four days earlier
Weather Forecasting
 To this model values of parameters such
as pressure, temperature, wind velocity,
humidity are fed at an initial time for every
grid point
 The model would contain descriptions in
appropriate computer form of basic
dynamics and physics of the different
components of the atmosphere
NOAA’s Weather Forecast Model-
Finite Volume Cubed-Sphere
 The FV3 dynamical core divides the
atmosphere into small cubes arranged on
a grid and computes the changes in winds
and pressure within each cube as part of a
model's forecast. Models using the FV3
have the capability to zoom in on storm
systems to improve predictions. Here, we
see a satellite image of Hurricane Sandy
with a stretched version of FV3's cubed
sphere grid, zoomed in on the hurricane.
Credit: NOAA
20Km ARW WRF. GFS-init NCAR/MMM Init: 00 UTC Tue 01 Apr 08
F cst, 69 h Val id, 21 UTC Thu 03 Apr 08 (14 MST Thu 03 Apr 081
Surface air lernperature sm= 1
Sea-level pressure sm= 4
Horizontal rrind vectors at k-index = 30
140 lf 130 lf 120 11' 11 O lf 100 lf 90 lf 80 lf 70 lf 60 lf
180
160
140
40 N
120
100
80
30 N
60
40
20
20 N
20 40 60 80 100 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280

BARB YEC'roRS: F'ULL BARB = 1 O kts
CONTOURS: UNITS=bPa LOlf= 992.00 lilGH= 1032.0 INTERVAL= 4.0000
5 10 15 3J � � � � e � � oo � ro � � � w �
Model Info, Y3. O G3 MYJ PBL ThQmpson Noah LSM 20 km, 30 levels, 100 sec
Llf, RRTM Slf, Goddard DIFF, slmple KM, 20 Smagor
Climate Modelling
 These are mathematical (or numerical) models
(quite like models used for weather forecasting)
constructed to analyse atmospheric and climatic
parameters such as surface pressure,
temperature, near surface wind, ocean surface
temperature/presure, precipitation rate, surface
sensible heat flux, radiation features etc.
 Climate models include the effects of oceans
whereas weather forecasting models do not
ernis"try-
CI mate Mode
r
1 RA". OSPHER
1 Cs
1
1
,
1 FREE
TRC>PC>SPHERE
Predicting Future Climate Change
 Climate models that are used to predict
future climates require accurate
descriptions of feedbacks, atmosphere-
ocean interactions, and different
greenhouse gas emission scenarios
 Recaling feedbacks:
 Water vapour feedback
 Cloud-radiation feedback
 Ocean circulation feedback (with the
hydrological cycle)
 Ice-albedo feedback
..: ......:;,.
Atlantic
Ocean
Cool subsurface flow

 Climate modeling studies are carried out at universities
and research centers around the world, and hundreds of
scientists are involved:
 Max Planck Institute (Germany)
 Canadian Climate Center (Canada)
 Laboratory for Modeling Climate and Environment
(France)
 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA, USA)
 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA)
 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA,
USA)
 Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS, USA)
C02, CH,4, N20, NO ııı; , 50 :ıı , ■
human co, NH3, CFCs, HFCs, sea
hulth PFCs, SF6, VOCs, BC, ete, level
effects c:han9e
------· ■
and
vegetation
change
oc;e-aııı
C02
uptake
land
sollCarbon C02
soil Nitrogen uptake
Comparison between modeled and observations of temperature rise
since the year 1860
ill'emperatme a11omaıres in °c: ill'emperatıne aıııomıali'es iııı 0 c
tO .o 1.0
(a) Natura! forcing only (b) Anthropogenic forcing only
0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
.Q.5 .Q.5
Modeı ın:ısuııts Mo eı resuıt-s
- O'bse:rwıtlom - o:ooe:rvafüms
11.0 +-----�-----�------+•1.0 1. 0 +------�-----�------+ 1.0
1850 1900 11950 2000 1850 11900 900 2000
1
Temperabne aıııomıalies rııı 0 c
1.0 1.0
(c ) Natura! + Anthropogenic forcing
0.5 0.5
-0.5
Modelres lt-s
- O'bservatiarıs
1.0 +-----�-----�-------+--11.0
800 1900 1950 2000
 Globalmodels with grid resolution of about
300 km in the horizontal are called Global
Circulation Models (GCM)
Predictions of future climate rely on numerical computer models, referred
to as General Circulation Models (GCMs), which simulate the climate
system of the Earth.
Annual average global warming by the year 2060 (simulated) (NASA).
NASA and other organizations use NASA's global climate computer model
(GCM) to see how Earth's climate is changing. A GCM calculates many things,
such as how much sunlight is reflected and absorbed by Earth's atmosphere,
the temperature of the air and oceans, the distribution of clouds, rainfall, and
snow, and what may happen to the polar ice caps in the future.
 Global Circulation Models use the IPCC’s
(Intergovernmental Panel on Global
Climate Change) Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES). There are
four main SRES scenarios; A1, A2, B1
and B2.
 The IPCC developed The Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to encompass
possible ranges of future human population and
economic growth that influence fossil-fuel
consumption.
 (SRES) published by the IPCC in 2000,
describe the emissions scenarios that have
been used to make projections of possible future
climate change, for the IPCC Third Assessment
Report (TAR), published in 2001, and in the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4),
published in 2007 (WMO).
 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Global
Climate Change) was established by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United
Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in
1988 for the purpose of assessing on a
comprehensive, objective, open and transparent
basis the best available scientific, technical and
socio-economic information relevant to the
understanding the scientific basis of risk of
human-induced climate change, its potential
impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation.
SRES Scenarios
 A1describes a future world of very rapid
economic growth, global population that
peaks in mid-century and declines
thereafter. There are three subgroups of
A1
SRES Scenarios
 Subgroups of A1:
 A1B scenario is balanced energy
consumption, not relying too heavily on one
particular energy source.
 A1T scenario is non-fossil energy sources.
 A1FI scenario is fossil intensive energy
sources.
SRES Scenarios
 A2 scenario describes a very heterogenous
world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and
preservation of local identities.
 In this scenario, population continuously
increases. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented. Per capita economic growth
and technological change are more fragmented
and slower than other scenarios.
SRES Scenarios
 The B1 scenario describes a convergent world
with the same population projection as in the A1
scenario.
 But here, rapid change in economic structures
toward a service and information economy, with
reductions in material intensity and the
introduction of clean and resource-efficient
technologies is assumed.
 The emphasis is on global solutions to
economic, social and environmental
sustainability, including improved equity, but
without additional climate initiatives.
SRES Scenarios
 The B2 storyline and scenario desribes a world

in which the emphasis is on local solutions to
economic, social and environmental
sustainability.
 It is a world with continuously increasing
population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate
levels of economic development and less rapid
but more diverse technological change than in
the B1 and A1 scenarios.
 While the scenario is also oriented towards
environmental protection and social equity, it
focuses on local and regional levels.
A1 storyline A2 storyline
World: market-oriented World: differentiated
Economy: fastest per capita growth Economy: regionally oriented;
Population: 2050 peak, then decline lowest per capita growth
Governance: strong regional Population: continuously increasing
interactions; income convergence Governance: self-reliance with
Technology: three scenario groups: preservation of local identities
• A1 Fi: fossil intensive Technology: slowest and most
• A1T: non-fossil energy sources fragmented development
• A1 B: balanced across all sources
B1 storyline B2 storyline
World: convergent World: local solutions
Economy: service and information Economy: intermediate growth
based; lower growth than A1 Population: continuously increasing
Population: same as A1 at lower rate than A2
Governance: global solutions to Governance: local and regional
economic, social and environmental solutions to environmental
sustainability protection and social equity
Technology: clean and resource- Technology: more rapid than A2;
efficient less rapid, more diverse than A1/B1
-
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1
EMISSION SCENARIOS
RCP – Representative Concentration
Pathways
 RCPs decribe four different 21st century pathways of

GHG emissions and atmospheric concentrations, air
pollutant emissions, and land use (IPCC, 5th AR).
 The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and

RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative
forcing values in the year 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5
W/m2, respectively).
 RCP2.6; a stringent mitigation scenario

 RCP4.5, RCP6.0; two intermediate scenarios
 RCP8.5; very high GHG emissions
EMISSION SCENARIOS
Pathways
 Four RCPs were selected and defined by their
total radiative forcing (cumulative measure of
human emissions of GHGs from all sources
expressed in Watts per square meter)
pathway and level by 2100.
 The RCPs were chosen to represent a broad
range of climate outcomes, based on a
literature review, and are neither forecasts nor
policy recommendations.
 RCP 2.6 is a representative scenario that aims
to keep global warming likely below 2°C above
EMISSION SCENARIOS
Pathways
Anthropogenic GHG emissions are mainly driven
by ;
1) Population
2) Economic activity
3) Lifestyle
4) Energy use
5) Land use pattern
6) Technology
7) Climate policy
Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtCO2)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
5
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� - RCP6.0 1% yr· 1 C0 2
o
- RCPB.5 1% yr· 1 C0 2 range
o 500 1000 1500 2000

Cumulative total anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (GtC)
EMISSION SCENARIOS
Pathways
Chapter 7.1
Impacts
on Terrestrial Ecosystems
 An ecosystem is a collection of compounds
and processes within a section of the
biosphere.
 The ecosystem has living (biotic) and non-

living (abiotic) components.
 When studying an ecosystem, the

interactions between living and nonliving
sections are investigated.
 Biotic part of an ecosystem includes all

living organisms, from the smallest (viruses
and bacteria) to the top predator.
 Abiotic part of an ecosystem includes soil, rock,
water, air, as well as the physical characteristics like
temperature, humidity, slope, etc.
 Climate, primarily temperature and precipitation,

determine the geographic distribution of major
terrestrial ecosystems (biomes) from deserts to rain
forests.
 Tundra, taiga, temperate forest, tropical rainforest,

savanna, and desert biomes.
 Biomes are distinctive ecological systems

characterized primarily by the nature of their
vegetation.
COLD
PRAIRIE
lROP.
RAm
FOREST
WARM
DRY ===--------------,
Earth 1 s Biomes
- Boreal forests/tai g as - T emperat e grasslands, s ava nnas,
Des erts and seric shrublands a nd shrublands
- Flo o d e d gras s lands - Tropical and subb"opical co ni ferous forests
- Ma ngrov es - Tropical and subb"opical dry bro adleaf forests
- Me d it enanea n s crub - Tropical and subb"opical gras s la nds,
- Mo ntane grasslands s ava nnas, and shrubla nds
� Snow, i ce, glaciers, a nd ro clc - Tropical and subb"opical m o is t bro adleaf forests
- T emperat e bro adleaf and mis e d forests - Tu n dra
- T emperat e co niferous forests - Inla nd Water
 Terrestrial ecosystems are an integral part of
the global carbon cycle.
 Grasslands and forests sequester

atmospheric carbon (CO2) through
photosynthesis and store it temporarily as
organic carbon.
 Below ground, organic carbon is

decomposed by micro-organisms and
released back into the atmosphere.
 Both of these processes are influenced by

temperature and could be altered by global
warming.
Atmosphere
750
P growlh Change in Rıssil fuel

and decay 60 61
land use errıis&iooıS
1.5 o.s 5..5 90
Martne organlsms..,....
Oissohred 3
organic carbon
700
• .ı.
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""
. .. .. - • . - ..- ··;___• ----
Surface water
CoaJ deposlt 011 and gas deposit
1020
3000 300
Marine sedimenıs
and sedlmentary rocks
68 000 000 • 100 000 000
T e resent carbon eye e

Volumes and exchanges in bilHons of tonnes of carbon
GRıo.P"ıC OESIGN : P"ILIPPI, REl(A.Cl,WtCl:
IGIRIIIDI @
re nd al UN.el>
150
Soul'08$: Cent.er for cllmatic teseateh, lnS1iltı e foıt el"l\lironmentaı udi8s, unlııetsity of v,ısoonsin at Madison; Okaneıgan uniV8� college in Ceınada,
•
Oepimmern of geography; �ıid Watch, Novembe,r-Oecemoer 1900; Cimate change 1995, The aıcience of climate dıange, contributi0n of groop 1
&o the seoonıeı assessmem. report ot lhe int8rg0\/'8mmenı:aı panel on cllmaı:e change, UNEP aııd WMO, Cambridge prsss unlwrsaty, 1996.
Changes over time in the global net carbon uptake on land
Gt C yr- 1
4
Source
2
-2
- Hybrid
-6 - LPJ
iBiS
-8 - SDGVM
-10 - VECODE
- TRIFFID
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

 Forests and other terrestrial biomes provide
habitats for a diversity of plants and animals.
 If the forest is damaged or removed, habitat

loss can endanger the survival of the
associated living organisms.
 Climate change can directly affect many

plants and animals by altering the growing
season or temperature patterns that trigger
life cycle changes.
Impacts seen today
Retreat of glaciers
 Over the past 150 years, the majority of
mountain glaciers monitored have been
shrinking.
 Many glaciers at lower latitudes are now

disappearing, and scientists predict that,
under some plausible warming scenarios,
the majority of glaciers will be gone by the
year 2100.
Impacts as seen today
Retreat of glaciers
 As glaciers continue to shrink, summer water

flows will drop sharply, disrupting an
important source of water for irrigation and
power in many areas that rely on mountain
watersheds.
Retreat of glaciers
 Many glaciers in the European Alps and
North America have lost 30 to 40 % of their
glacial area and about half of their total
volume between the 1850s and 1980s
(Haeberli and Beniston, 1998).
 The Himalayan Glaciers on the Tibetian

Plateau have been among the most affected
by global warming.
Retreat of glaciers
 The Himalayas provide more than half of the
drinking water for 40 % of the world’s
population through seven Asian river
systems that all originate on the same
plateau.
Pressures to Ecosystems
 Land use changes
 Pollutant and nutrient discharges
 Overharvesting
 Introduction of exotic species
 Natural climate variability
 Climate change is an additional
pressure with the following results:
 Lengthening of vegetative growing season
(by 1.2 to 3.6 days per decade) in the high
northern latitudes,
 Warming of lakes and rivers as a result of

shortening duration of ice cover,
 Shift in vegetation range in mountain

regions,
 Increased mortality and range contraction

of wildlife as a result of the heat stress.
 Satellite data reveal that between 1970 and
1990, the overall Northern Hemisphere winter
snow cover decreased by about 10 %
(Folland et al., 1990).
 Land use conversion and intensive use of

land has resulted in decreased soil fertility
and increased land degradation, as well as
desertification.
 Land degradation already affects more than

900 million people in 100 countries (mostly
developing countries).
 SRES scenarios indicate increased droughts,
higher intensity of rainfall, more irregular
rain patterns and more frequent tropical
summer drought in the mid-latitude
continental interiors.
 Optimum temperature and precipitation

patterns defining the current distribution of
vegetation types can be measured.
 Global climate models can predict future

geographic shifts in defined climate spaces.
Thus, the possible geographic distribution of
available future habitat for a vegetation type
can be mapped.
 Impact of future greenhouse effect on global
vegetation and climate was predicted
through use of coupled atmosphere-ocean-
land model FOAM-LPJ (Center for Climatic
Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison).
 According to the model;

- Tropical rainforests will suffer due to high
temperatures and reduced rainfall,
- Boreal forests will continue to shift poleward.
al forest
di:eb
1 (b) Futur,e
·. nna ı Dry ·woocı ıa · ·

----
 Predictions by Ecological
Models (MAPSS and BIOME 3)
 The Tundra decreases by as much as 1/3 to
2/3 of its present size, under all scenarios
and with both ecological models.
 The boreal forest expands in size under all
scenarios, ranging from 108 to 133 % of its
present size.
 Temperate forests increase in area (107 to
158 %).
 MAPSS (Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil
System) is a global vegetation distribution
model that was developed to simulate the
potential biosphere impacts and biosphere-
atmosphere feedbacks from climatic change.
 Model output from MAPSS has been used

extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change's (IPCC) regional and
global assessments of climate change
impacts on vegetation and in several other
projects.
 Greenhouse warming will increase the
frequency of disturbance weather events
(summer/autumn drought & thunderstorms)
that impact mid-latitude temperate forests
(Overpeck et al., 2001).
 In temperate and boreal forests of North

Anerica and Russia, a number of studies
suggest that the climate change induced
increases in forest fire seasonal severity,
seasonal length, and areal extent (Stocks et
al., 1998).
 An increase in forest fires is already
responsible for increasing releases of CO2
into the atmosphere.
 Climate change will radically increase species

loss and reduce biodiversity, particularly in
the higher latitudes of the Northern
Hemisphere (Malcom and Markham, 2000).
 Global warming has the potential to

significantly alter 35% of the world’s existing
terrestrial habitats during this century.
 Deforestation will probably have serious long-
term irreversible effects on the climate of the
Amazon Basin.
 Once removed, the Amazon forest will be

unable to re-establish itself.
 Deforestation of tropical rainforests elsewhere

will probably have similar effects on regional
climates.
 Increasing atmospheric CO2 generally
increases photosynthetic rates in individual
plants.
 However, the plants do not necessarily benefit

from this increased productivity.
 When several species are grown together,

increased competition and nutrient availability
diminishes any benefit of enhanced
atmospheric CO2.
IMPACTS ON TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS-
SUMMARY
 The geographic distributions of major terrestrial

ecosystems are largely governed by patterns of
temperature and precipitation.
 There can be little doubt that climate change during

this century will significantly alter the distribution and
abundance of terrestrial species.
 Climate change appears to be responsible for many

documented life cycle changes in plants and animals
over the past 50 years or more.
Chapter 7.2
Impacts on Freshwater
Ecosystems
 Climate induced changes in precipitation, surface
run-off, and soil moisture will probably have
profound impacts on natural systems and human
populations.
 Life on land, in streams, and in lakes, depends on

the availability of freshwater.
 Globally, precipitation averages about 86 cm/year,

and ranges from 25 to 254 cm/year over the most of
the world.
 These differences in precipitation patterns, along

with temperature, largely determine the geographic
distribution of major terrestrial ecosystems (biomes)
from deserts to rain forests.
 Surface and groundwater sources supply water to
humans for domestic use, agricultural irrigation,
industry, transportation, recreation, waste disposal,
and hydroelectric power generation.
 Human settlements have been, and continue to be,

linked closely to the availability of freshwater.
 According to the historians, successful early

agricultural civilizations such as those in Africa
(Egypt) and Central America (Mayan) developed out
of the social organization necessary for large-scale
water-management projects.
The Water Cycle (UNEP)
 The water cycle consists of precipitation, vapour

transport, evaporation, evapo-transpiration,
infiltration, groundwater flow and runoff.
 Nearly 577,000 km3 of water circulates through the

cycle each year.
 The world’s surface water is affected by varying

levels of precipitation, evaporation and runoff, in
different regions.
The Water Cycle
 Water is transported in various forms within the
hydrologic cycle.
 Shiklomanov (1993) estimates that each year about

502,800 km3 of water evaporates over the oceans
and seas, 90% of which (458,000 km3) returns
directly to the oceans through precipitation, while
the remainder (44,800 km3) falls over land.
 The total volume of water on earth is 1.4 billion km3

(Shiklomanov, 1993).
The Water Cycle
 The volume of freshwater resources is 35 million
km3, or about 2.5% of the total volume
 Of these, 24 million km3 or 68.9% is in the form of ice

and permanent snow cover in mountainous regions,
and in the Antarctic and Arctic regions
 Some 8 million km3 or 30.8% is stored underground

in the form of groundwater. This constitutes about
97% of all the freshwater potentially available for
human use (Shiklomanov, 1993).
The Water Cycle
 Freshwater lakes and rivers contain an estimated
105,000 km3 or 0.3% of the world’s freshwater.
 The total usable freshwater supply for ecosystems

and humans is 200,000 km3 of water, which is less
than 1% of all freshwater resources, and only 0.01%
of all the water on earth (Gleick, 1993; Shiklomanov,
1999).
Freshwater resources (UNEP)
Trends in global water use by sector
(UNEP)
Access to an improved water source
(UNEP)
WATER USE
 Municipal water demand is commonly classified
according to the nature of the user:
1) Domestic (Water furnished to houses, hotels for

sanitary purposes),
2) Commercial and industrial (Water furnished to

industrial and commercial establishments such as
factories, offices and stores),
3) Public use (Water furnished to public buildings and

used for public services, such as city buildings,
schools, flushing streets, fire protection),
4) Loss and waste (Water that is unaccounted for, not

assigned to a specific user, e.g. leaks in distribution
system. System maintenance !
FACTORS AFFECTING WATER USE
1) Size of the city
2) Industry and commerce
3) Characteristics of the population (economic level,

lower use in low-value districts where sewerage is
not provided and water supplies are inadequate)
4) Miscellaneous factors (climate, quality, pressure,

system maintenance, conservation programs)
 Hot, dry weather

 Water of poor quality (colored, odorous)
 High pressure high use, more leaks
Impacts on Freshwater Ecosystems
 Impacts on Rivers and Streams
Temperature increase  less dissolved oxygen,

increased microbial activity, severe changes in fish
breeding habitat (especially trout and salmon),
disruption of food chain, extinction of species.
Changes in precipitation and runoff regimes

a) early snowmelt runoff  change and possible
destruction in fish breeding habitat
b) increased precipitation variability  increased
floods  degradation of water quality
c) reduced streamflows  large scale devastation of
ecosystems
 Impacts on Lakes
Temperature increase  production of nuisance algae,

decreased levels of dissolved oxygen, disruption
of stratification levels
 In areas, where stream flows and lake levels

decline, hydroelectric energy production is likely
to suffer.
 Rising sea level, in some coastal communities, will

result in saltwater intrusion into groundwater, thus
compromising its quality.
Impacts on Wetlands
 Rising temperatures and changes in surface water

could damage wetland communities.
 Seasonal and annual changes in water level

regulate vegetation growth.
 The US EPA summarized the results of numerous
studies on the effects of climate change on water
resources of the USA.
 According to the findings, climate change during

this century will probably lead to following:
 Changes in wetland communities
 Decreasing lake levels in some areas
 Decreasing per capita water availability,

particularly in low-latitude countries with high
population growth rates
 Decreases in dissolved oxygen (due to high

temperatures in lakes, streams and groundwater
sources)
 Changes in freshwater invertebrate and fish

species populations
Chapter 7.3
Impacts on Marine
Environment
Climate Change and the Marine
Environment
• Humans depend on the sea. Climate change could
affect sea-level ocean-atmosphere interactions,
ocean heat transport, biogeochemical cycles, and
marine ecosystems, including fisheries.
• Two-thirds’s of the Earth’s surface is covered by

ocean. As the ocean warms, its volume expands.
• This expansion, together with additional water

from melting glaciers, will raise the sea level.
• Higher sea levels will affect shallow water marine
communities and greatly impact human coastal
populations.
• Increasing water temperature increases the

movement of water vapor from the ocean to the
atmosphere (evaporation).
• Changes in ocean temperature and/or salinity will

alter density driven ocean currents and heat
transport.
• Marine biogeochemical processes in the ocean,

such as calcium carbonate formation, is
influenced by climate.
• Changes in these processes, through complicated
feedbacks, will significantly add to climate-
change impacts.
• Global climate change will alter the available

habitat and population distribution of marine
plankton, invertebrates, fish, and marine
mammals.
• Warmer temperatures may increase the incidence

of toxic algal blooms and marine diseases.
Oceans
• The largest of all the ecosystems, oceans are very
large bodies of water that dominate the Earth’s
surface.
• The ocean regions are separated into separate

zones: intertidal, pelagic, benthic, and abyssal.
• All four zones have a great diversity of species.

Marine life zones
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Ocean
• Well-developed intermediate beach
containing transverse bars and rip
channels along Lighthouse Beach,
Australia. Note the waves breaking on the
bars, with no waves breaking in the
deeper darker rip channels.
Sea-Level Rise
• Greenhouse warming will lead to sea-level rise.
• As sea water warms, it expands.
• Also, as freshwater stored in alphine and polar
continental regions melts and flows to the sea, it
contributes further to sea-level rise.
• Sea level is already rising and will continue to

rise.
• Measurements covering the last 100 years show a

general increase in sea level of 2.4 ± 0.9 mm per
year (Peltier and Tushingham, 1989).
Sea-Level Rise
• Although predictions of future sea-level rise vary
(Titus et al., 1991), there is little doubt that the
sea level will rise substantially over the next 100
to 200 years.
• Based on SRES, the IPCC predicts a global sea-

level rise between 1990 and 2100 of 0.09 to 0.88
m with a central value of 0.48 m.
• About 70 % of the predicted sea-level rise will

result from the thermal expansion of ocean water
as it warms.
• The remaining 30 % from melting glaciers and ice

caps that add freshwater to the sea.
Sea-Level Rise
• However, predictions of sea-level rise contain
several uncertanties.
• If the West Antarctic ice sheet melts and

collapses (a less likely, but possible scenario), sea
level could increase by 6 m.
• Sea-level rise will have a number of important

impacts on ecosystems and humans.
W at causes the sea ıleve ta change ?
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Sea-Level Rise
• Ground data 1870-2000 (Data source:
Coastal tide gauge records): Rate of
change in sea level is + 1.70 mm/year*
(estimate for the 20th century) (NASA).
• Satellite data 1993-Present (Data source:

Satellite sea level observations): Rate of
change in sea level is + 3.28 mm/year*
(estimate for 1993-2010) (NASA).
Global average sea level rise (1990 - 2100)
Sea level rise (metres) for the six SRES Scenarios
1.0
Range in 2100
AII SRES envelope including

-•.'
0.8 '•
land-ice uncertainty '' Scenarios
--A1
---· 1!!11T
Several models all
SRES envelope ••••••• A1 Fi
0.6 --A2
--B1
--B2
Model average
all SRES envelope
0.4
Bars show the
range in 2100
produced by
several models
0.2
ı
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080

Relative sea level over the last 300 years
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Millirneters
+ 200 -------------�-- --·--
Amsterdam
+ 100
o�
- 100
-200
Millirneters
Brest
+ 200
+ 100
o
-100 �
-200
Millirneters
+ 200
+ 100
o
- 100
-200
Sea-Level Rise
• About half of the world’s population lives within
200 km of the ocean, and many millions live in
coastal areas that are less than 5 m above the
sea-level.
• Sea-level rise impacts;

- Increased beach errosion (a valuable economic
reource-tourism)
- Saltwater intrusion into groundwater (freshwater
source for many coastal islands and communities)
- Flooding of coastal habitats (migration to inland)
Impact of sea
level rise on the
Nile Delta (UNEP)
Sea-Level Rise
• Certain regions are particularly vulnerable to the
effects of sea-level rise.
• Island Nations of the Pacific, the Indian Ocean

and the Caribbean, erosion, flooding and
saltwater intrusion threaten the social and
economic viability of island states (Roy and
Connell, 1991).
• These islands could lose much or all of their land

area to the sea.
• Island people may become the first

environmental refugees of the greenhouse era.
Sea-Level Rise
• Changes in global precipitation and temperature
patterns could alter large scale oceanic circulation
patterns (Weaver, 1993).
• Oceanic water masses flow from areas of high

density (e.g. colder and/or more saline) to areas
of lower density (e.g. warmer and/or less saline).
Thus, density differences drive the large-scale
ocean currents.
• Global warming may increase the frequency and

intensity of ENSO in the central Pacific Ocean.
The full, large scale circulation pattern of the ocean is called the thermohaline
circulation because it is driven by differences both in temperature and salt
concentrations.
Great ocean conveyor belt
Heat release
to atmosphere
---------._'\ =)
Warm suıface
current
• Many marine mammals are threatened by habitat
destruction. Global warming will put additional
pressure on their ability to survive (Harwood,
2001).
• The extent of sea ice has declined and will

probably decline another 40 % or more by 2100
(Hadley Centre, 2002).
• This will shrink the available habitat of seals, sea

lions and polar bears.
• Direct impacts on marine ecosystems:
1) changes in the species population

abundance of plankton that form the base
of the marine food web
2) changes in the geographic distribution
and species composition of coastal
ecosystems
3) additional temperature stress
4) decreased productivity and altered
distribution of fish and marine mammals
Ocean Acidificaton
• The ocean absorbs about 30% of the

carbon dioxide (CO2) that is released in
the atmosphere. As levels of atmospheric
CO2 increase from human activity such as
burning fossil fuels (e.g., car emissions)
and changing land use (e.g.,
deforestation), the amount of carbon
dioxide absorbed by the ocean also
increases.
Ocean Acidificaton
• When CO2 is absorbed by seawater, a

series of chemical reactions occur
resulting in the increased concentration of
hydrogen ions. This process has far
reaching implications for the ocean and
the creatures that live there.
Ocean acidificaton weakens Coral
Reefs
Ocean Acidificaton
• Ocean acidification is already impacting
many ocean species, especially organisms
like oysters and corals that make hard
shells and skeletons by combining calcium
and carbonate from seawater. However,
as ocean acidification increases, available
carbonate ions (CO32-) bond with excess
hydrogen, resulting in fewer carbonate
ions available for calcifying organisms to
build and maintain their shells, skeletons,
and other calcium carbonate structures.
Ocean Acidificaton
• If the pH gets too low, shells and skeletons can
even begin to dissolve. Changes in ocean
chemistry can affect the behavior of non-
calcifying organisms as well. The ability of some
fish, like clownfish, to detect predators is
decreased in more acidic waters. Studies have
shown that decreased pH levels also affect the
ability of larval clownfish to locate suitable
habitat. When these organisms are at risk, the
entire food web may also be at risk.
Chapter 7.4
Impacts on Agriculture &

Food Supplies
Climate Change & Agriculture
 Productive agriculture is essential to feed a growing
population and sustain modern civilization.
 Agricultural productivity remains at the heart of

modern economies.
 Climate affects agriculture & agriculture also affects

climate: Forests, a major terrestrial sink for CO2, have
been greatly reduced by agricultural land clearing.
 Modern agriculture depends on fossil-fuel energy and

contributes to GHG emissions.
Effects of Agriculture on Climate
 The global flux of several GHGs is influenced by
agriculture.
 Land clearing, much of it from agriculture, is the

second largest source of CO2 emissions after fossil-
fuel combustion, accounting for 10 to 30 % of net
global CO2 emissions.
 Forests, grasslands and soils store large quantities of

carbon. Forests store 20 to 40 times more carbon per
unit area than most crops and when they are cleared
for cultivation, much of this carbon is released to the
atmosphere.
 Mean estimates of carbon loss from the conversion of
terrestrial ecosystems to agriculture range from 21 to
46 %.
 Some agriculture produces methane; Paddy rice

cultivation is responsible for about 40 % of global CH4
emissions.
 In flooded rice paddies, microbial decomposition of

high organic aquatic sediments, under low oxygen
conditions, releases CH4 gas to the atmosphere.
 This source will continue to grow as rice cultivation

expands in the future.
 Livestock production is responsible for about 15 % of
global CH4 emissions.
 Ruminant animals (cattle, sheep, goats, camels, and

buffalo) digest grasses and other cellulose forage in
their stomachs and release CH4 to the air.
 Cattle represent about 75 % of the total livestock CH4

emissions.
 Nitrous oxide (N2O) is another GHG closely linked to

agricultural activities. Like C, Nitrogen (N) in
vegetation and soils is lost to the atmosphere during
land clearing.
 Nitrogen fertilizers are also applied to crops, and
generally enhance growth.
 However, excess N from fertilizers is converted to

volatile N2O by microbial activity in soil and released
into the atmosphere.
 N2O is produced naturally in soil, but globally, N

fertilizers contribute about 0.14 to 2.4 million tons of
the 8 to 22 millions tons of total annual N2O
emissions.
 Different agricultural practices have different

consequences for GHG emissions; Intensive
agriculture uses large quantities of fossil fuel.
Effects of Climate Change on
Agriculture
 Changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature,
precipitation, and soil moisture, individually or
together, could alter production of crops.
 Computer models can estimate the effects of climate
on agricultural production and crop prices.
 Dynamic crop growth models use physiological,
morphological and physical processes to predict crop
growth or yield under different environmental
conditions.
 A variety of economic models can then estimate the
effects of climate change on the agricultural sector of
the economy.
Estimate!d Percentag:e Declinıes ı n Crop Outpuıt Due, t 0 ıC li mat e C hange 1 1
by 2080
Vi:etnaıın lndonesia Malaysia Philippiine·s Thailaınıd lndia
o
-5
-10
-
::::ı
-15
::::ı
o -20
-:25
• Without carboııı fertihation
-30
• With carbon fertilization
-35
-40
-45
Source: William R. Cliıne, 2007. Global Warming and A.griculture: lmpact Estimates by Country. Page:s '69-71.
11 1
'
N'ote: Carbonı fertilization ref,ers to the process by which higher ,concentrations of C0 2 can increase photosynthesis. and reduce
p ant wat,er loss, poterıtially otfsetting the yıield declines that are predicted due to climate chang,e.
Agriculture
 The availability of water for irrigation: any decrease in
water availability would result in decreased food
production in regions where water becomes critical.
 CO2 Fertilization
 Increased atmospheric CO2 could reduce the effects

of climate change on agriculture: higher atmospheric
CO2 concentrations could stimulate photosynthesis
and crop production.
Agriculture
 As crops are stressed by climate change, they become
more vulnerable to damaging pets and diseases.
 Climate also affects animal husbandry. Indirect

effetcs;
- Climate-induced changes in the availability and price of
feed grain,
 Extreme heat can affect the health of animals; heat

waves can kill poultry and decrease milk production in
cows.
Impact of Climate Change on
Agriculture-Summary
 Large increase in agricultural production is required
during this century to feed the growing population of
the world.
 Crop production is very sensitive to climate.
 Therefore, increased production in many areas will be

even more difficult.
 For example, in the USA, food shortage will be

unlikely, but higher investments will be required for
irrigation, and other technologies will increase food
costs and lead to decreased exports.
Agriculture-Summary
 Developed countries will face the same challenges as
the USA and crop prices are likely to increase.
 The less-developed countries will be unable to apply

expensive technologies to maintain agricultural
production, and some will face food shortages and
increased hunger.
 Sub-Saharan Africa: This arid to semi-arid region,

where 60 % of the population depends directly on
farming, appears most vulnerable to climate change.
Agriculture-Summary
 South and Southeast Asia: More than 30 % of GDP
(Gross domestic product) comes from agriculture and
these regions may be vulnerable.
 Pacific Island Nations: Sea-level rise and associated

saltwater intrusion could negatively impact agriculture.
 Technological adaptation: Increased irrigation (where

water is available), adoption of alternate crop varieties
will minimize impacts for those countries that can
afford it.
Chapter 7.5
Impacts on Human Settlement

& Infrastructure
 Climate change will have wide-ranging impacts on
society and the infrastructure that supports
civilization.
 In addition to agriculture, food supplies, and human

health, global warming could impact patterns of;
- human settlement
- energy use
- transportation
- industry
- environmental quality
- other aspects of infrastructure that affect or quality
of life.
 Numerous examples from history illustrate how the

success of civilization and human welfare is
intimately linked to climate.
 Fossil-fuel use will affect future climate.
 Fossil fuels supply energy, either directly as fuel or

indirectly as generated electricity, for;
- Manufacturing
- Agriculture
- Transportation
- Heating
 Future GHG emissions and resultant climate change

will depend largely on future rates of fossil-fuel
consumption.
 Many complex and interacting factors determine the

consumption rate of fossil-fuels.
 Demand is a result of;
- Population growth rate

- Availability of fossil-fuel
- Energy efficiency
- Conservation measures
- Use of non-fossil energy sources
- General industrial productivity
- Energy policy
 All of these factors will affect the rates of utilization

of fossil-fuels and eventually the future climate.
 Future climate, in turn, will affect fossil-fuel use.
 As climate changes, patterns of energy use will
change.
 Humans living in cold climates require large
quantities of energy for heating of residential and
commercial buildings.
 These requirements will decrease in response to
warmer winters.
 In warm climates, energy is required for air
conditioning.
 In arid areas, irrigated agriculture requires energy
for pumping water.
 Energy demand for these activities could increase.
 The impacts of climate change on human settlement
patterns and infrastructure will differ regionally and
could range from insignificant to catastrophic.
 The costs of mitigating these effects will vary

greatly, but are likely to be felt most by developing
countries.
 There exists important links between;

- Global climate
- Extreme climate events
- Energy use
- Environmental quality
- Human settlement patterns
- Transportation & industrial infrastructure
ENERGY
The effects of energy use on climate
 UNFCCC 2002 calls for:
‘ stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere

at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system’
 Can we achieve this goal ?
 The actual level at which atmospheric CO2

stabilization is achieved will depend on the product of
several factors;
ENERGY
- CO2 emitted from fossil-fuel combustion

- Population
- GDP: Gross domestic product
- Energy intensity (defined as units of energy per unit of
GDP.
- Carbon intensity The amount of carbon by weight
emitted per unit of energy consumed (CO2/energy or
CO2/Btu
 The level of atmospheric CO2 stabilization that can be
achieved in this century will depend on all these
factors.
ENERGY
 Improvement in energy efficiency alone will not be
sufficient to stabilize CO2 at reasonable target values.
 Meeting CO2 stabilization goals will require a

simultaneous decrease in carbon fuels as a
proportion of total energy.
 New carbon-free sources of energy will be required to

decrease carbon intensity.
 Energy production and consumption must take a

rapid transition to a largely carbon-free global
economy.
ENERGY
 Fossil fuel carbon emissions scenarios in the 21.
century: IPCC IS92a Stabilization senarios, Business
as usual scenario; C emissions continue to grow and
the proportion from coal increases.
 Stabilization of CO2 at 450 ppmv will require a

complete phase-out of coal by 2050.
ENERGY
The effects of climate change on
energy supply and demand
 Population and economic growth will lead to future
increase in energy demand in most countries, but the
impacts of climate change on supply and demand will
vary greatly by region. For example;
 In UK and Russia, a 2 to 2.2°C warming by 2050 will

decrease winter space-heating needs, thus,
decreasing fossil-fuel demand by 1 to 3 % .
 By 2050 in the Southern US, summertime electrical
demand will greatly increase because of air-
conditioning demands.
ENERGY
 Electrical generation must meet average demands,
but it must also be sufficient to meet peek demands.
 Model studies, assuming a 3 to 5°C increase in

average US temperature by 2055, suggest that
electrical demand and fuel costs will increase
significantly because of climate change.
 The cost of increasing electrical capacity to meet the

increased demand due to climate change will be large.
ENERGY
 An increase in electrical demand (much of it
generated by fossil-fuel combustion) would make
policies that limit GHG emissions more difficult to
achieve.
 With increased demand, the need to import power

could affect the balance of payments of a country’s
foreign trade.
 Due to its effects on runoff and stream flows, climate

change will also affect hydroelectric power
generation. Climate change will also affect biomass
energy.
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
 Global warming will add to environmental quality and
resource depletion problems:
 Reduced amount of precipitation → Bush & forest

fires
 Energy demand → Additional power capacity
requirement → Decreased air quality → Additional
SO2, NOX, PM emissions
 Energy demand → Water demand (power plant
cooling)
 Energy demand → Resource depletion of non-
renewable fuels (natural gas)
 Energy demand → Increased land use for new power
plants
EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS
 Climate model projections for the 21. century predict;
- more extreme high temperatures,

- fewer extreme low temperatures,
- a reduced diurnal temperature range,
- increased intensity of precipitation events,
- reductions in soil moisture.
 Changes in the frequency and of occurrence and

intensity of temperature and precipitation extremes
can be important than changing long-term averages.
During the 20. century, the incidence of climate
extremes changed significantly.
 Natural systems are vulnerable to increases in climate
extremes and the occurrence of climatic disturbances
→ Development or life cycle of numerous organisms
 Some climate models suggest that a warmer

atmosphere and ocean will add momentum to the sea-
air exchange of energy, thus, increase the frequency
of trophical cyclones, thunderstorms, tornadoes,
hailstorms, droughts and wildfires → Economic
impacts in areas like the Caribbean.
 Some models suggest an increase in the intensity of

El Nino events, some do not !
 Heavy precipitation events can cause flooding,
erosion, and mudslides in mountain regions.
 According to model predictions, for many temperate

countries, heavy summer precipitation events will
increase by about 20 % during this century-nearly four
times the average overall precipitation increase.
 Increased precipitation and runoff in some regions

will lead to an increased frequency and/or intensity of
flooding with consequent economic costs.
 Extreme climate events could significantly increase

property insurance costs.
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
 Climate change will alter regional agricultural and
industrial potential and could trigger large-scale
migrations and redistributions of people.
 Such population displacements can result in;

- serious economic disruptions,
- negative health impacts,
- increased human suffering (similiar to the mass
movement of war-related refugess).
 Living patterns and technologies of particular

populations have evolved to cope with occasional
storms or disasters or slow natural climate change,
not with rapid climate change.
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS
 According to most scenarios, climate change will
place added demands on urban infrastructures →
Accelerate urbanization (migration)
 Inhabitants will need to migrate to mainland interior

areas to escape flooding → Migrating populations
would create infrastructure problems for regions
suddenly facing so large numbers of climate-change-
immigrants.
 Additional infrastructure → more housing, medical

facilities, other essential urban services.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Transportation
 Industrial or agricultural relocations in response to

climate change will require additional investments in
transportation → from new highways or rail links to
new shipping ports.
 Increase in precipitation → landslides & road errosion

→ higher maintenance costs
 Threatening of long-distance power and pipelines due

to landslides and slope instability
 Melting of permafrost in arctic regions

INFRASTRUCTURE
Transportation
 Effect of climate on ship transport; navigation on

rivers.
 The growing number of automobiles in the world will

greatly add to GHG emissions unless transportation
alternatives are soon adopted.
 The average car emits 50-80 tons of CO2 over its full
life.
 Impacts on GHG emissions and resulting climate

change ≈ individual choices & government policies
INFRASTRUCTURE
Industry
 Energy-intensive industries, such as steel, aluminum,

and cement production will be negatively impacted by
climate changes that reduce power production or
increase the cost of power.
 Agro-industry in developed countries requires large

amounts of power and is sensitive to the supply and
cost of energy.
 Many less developed countries, heavily dependent on

subsistence food and fiber production, are
particularly vulnerable to climate change.
INFRASTRUCTURE
Industry
 Tourism, important to the economies of many

countries, will be impacted by climate change.
 Tourism impacts → more freuqent periods of extreme

heat & loss of beaches & reefs
 Climate change present new opportunities for some

industries → Stabilization of climate, development of
new-carbon-free and low impact energy technologies.
 Manufacturers of solar energy systems, fuel cells,

wind generators, biogas plants
 The relative impact of climate change will on human
infrastructure will vary by region.
 Developing countries have less ability to adapt

technologically to climate change in comparison to
developed countries.
 Developing countries are very much dependent on

agriculture, forestry, fishery.
 Urban Heat Island Effect: Because of pavement

cover, buildings and air pollution
 In cities like Shanghai (China), temperatures of 5°C

or more greater can be experienced than the
surrounding countryside.
Chapter 7.6
Effects on Human Health

 Changes in temperature and precipitation, sea-level,
fisheries, agriculture, natural ecosystems, and air
quality will all directly or indirectly affect human
health and mortality.
 Climate change could negatively impact human

health in economically developed countries in North
America and Europe, but in general, these countries
should have sufficient resources to reduce climate
change impacts on human health (US EPA, 2002;
Kovats et al., 1999; Balbus and Wilson, 2000).
 On the other hand, the less-developed poorer

nations with very rapid population growth, poverty,
poor health care, economic dependency, and
isolation will be quite vulnerable to the human health
effects of climate change (Githeko et al., 2000;
Woodward et al., 1998).
 Climate change can directly affect health because of
high temperatures pose an added stress on human
physiology.
 Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes,

including extreme weather events and storms, can
cause deaths directly, or by altering the environment
(resulting in incidence of infectious diseases).
 Air pollution can be exacerbated by higher

temperature and humidity.
Human Health
 Human health is dependent on a good
environment. The following factors deteriorate
the environment and human health, assist the
spread of diseases:
– Pollution of the atmosphere

– Polluted or inadequate water supplies
– Poor soil
 These factors will be magnified by global

warming.
Urban Heat •-----�•► Heat-ReJated Mortality
lsfand Effect
Air
••►----•., Respiratory
Pollution
Ecologically Mediated
Dengue and DHF
Encephalitis
Malaria
Vector-Borne
Lyme Disease
Diseases
Yellow Fever
ToxicAlgae
•-------+.....
Marine and Water-
Cholera
Borne Diseases ►
Diarrheaı Diseases
Threatened Malnutrition
Food Supply lmmuno-Suppression
Droughts. Floods. Disaster-Related Oeath and lnjury

and Storms
Overcrowding
Poor Sanitation
Sea-Level Aise
lnfectious Disease
lmpacts on Fisheries
UV-B Radiation Skin Cancers

Ocul ar Cataracts
lmmuno-Suppression
Human Health
 Many of the major killers are climate
sensitive. Each year:
Undernutrition kills 3.7 million
Diarrhoea kills 1.8 million
Malaria kills 1.1 million
 Each of these is highly sensitive to

temperature and precipitation (WHO).
Infectious Diseases
 Global warming represents a new stimulus to the

spread of infectious diseases (Last, 1997).
 Infectious diseases; Vector borne (rats, flies, etc.)

Non-vector borne (between humans)
 Malaria → closely related to climate change

Source: WHO
Climate Change & Health
Key Facts
 Climate change affects the fundamental requirements
for health – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient
food and secure shelter.
 The global warming that has occurred since the 1970s

was causing over 140 000 excess deaths annually by
the year 2004.
 Many of the major killers such as diarrhoeal diseases,

malnutrition, and malaria are highly climate-sensitive
and are expected to worsen as the climate changes.
Climate Change & Health
Key Facts
 Areas with weak health infrastructure – mostly in
developing countries – will be the least able to cope
without assistance to prepare and respond.
 Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases through

better transport, food and energy-use choices can
result in improved health.
Global Climate Change:
Recent Impacts (NASA)
Phenomena Likelihood that trend occurred in
late 20th century
Cold days, cold nights and frost less Very likely
frequent over land areas
More frequent hot days and nights Very likely
Heat waves more frequent over most land Likely

areas
Increased incidence of extreme high sea Likely
level (Except Tsunamis)
Global area affected by drought has Likely in some regions
increased (since 1970s)
Increase in intense tropical cyclone Likely in some regions
activity in North Atlantic (since 1970)
Definitions of likelihood ranges used to express the assessed probability of occurrence: virtually certain >99%, very likely
>90%, likely >66%.
Global Climate Change:
Future Trends (NASA)
Phenomena Likelihood of trend
Contraction of snow cover areas, Virtually certain

increased thaw in permafrost regions,
decrease in sea ice extent
Increased frequency of hot extremes, heat Very likely to occur
waves and heavy precipitation
Increase in tropical cyclone intensity Likely to occur
Precipitation increases in high latitudes Very likely to occur
Precipitation decreases in subtropical land Very likely to occur

regions
Decreased water resources in many semi- High confidence

arid areas, including western U.S. and
Mediterranean basin
Web Sites
 Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations
www.fao.org
 United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP)
www.unep.org
 World Health Organization (WHO)
www.who.int
Chapter 8. International
Conventions and Protocols
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) (www.ipcc.ch)
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading
international body for the assessment of climate change.
• It was established by the United Nations Environment Programme

(UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988 to
provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of
knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and
socio-economic impacts.
• IPCC Secretariat is hosted by WMO in Geneva, Switzerland.

• The IPCC reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical
and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the
understanding of climate change.
• It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related
data or parameters.
• As an intergovernmental body, membership of the IPCC is open to all
member countries of the United Nations (UN) and WMO.
Currently 195 countries are Members of the IPCC.
• Thousands of scientists from all over the world contribute to the work
of the IPCC. Review is an essential part of the IPCC process, to ensure
an objective and complete assessment of current information.
• Because of its scientific and intergovernmental nature, the IPCC
embodies a unique opportunity to provide rigorous and balanced
scientific information to decision makers.
• By endorsing the IPCC reports, governments acknowledge the

authority of their scientific content. The work of the organization is
therefore policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-
prescriptive.
The main objective of the Task Force on National Greenhouse
Gas Inventories is to develop and refine a methodology for the
The structure calculation and reporting of national greenhouse gas emissions
and removals.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
• The First IPCC Assessment Report was completed in
1990.
• The Report played an important role in establishing

the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by the
UN General Assembly.
• The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 and entered into force
in 1994.
• The UNFCCC provides the overall policy framework for

addressing the climate change issue.
•
Change (IPCC)
• The IPCC has continued to provide scientific, technical
and socio-economic advice to the world community,
and in particular to the Parties to the UNFCCC
through its periodic assessment reports and special
reports.
• Its Second Assessment Report, Climate Change 1995,

provided key input to the negotiations, which led to
the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC in
1997.
Change (IPCC)
• The Third Assessment Report (TAR), Climate Change
2001, was completed in 2001. The IPCC has also
issued the Special Report on Emission Scenarios
(SRES) back in 2000, which produced a wide range of
scenarios for future GHG emissions up to the year
2100.
• It was submitted to the 7th Conference of the Parties
to the UNFCCC and Parties agreed that it should be
used routinely as a useful reference for providing
information for deliberations on agenda items of the
Conference of the Parties.
Change (IPCC)
• The IPCC published the Fourth Assessment Report
(AR4) in 2007.
• IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) was published in

2014.
• IPCC Special Report on "Renewable Energy Sources and

Climate Change Mitigation» in 2011
AR 6 – The 6th Assessment Report
• The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle. During this cycle,
the Panel will produce three Special Reports (already published in
2020), a Methodology Report on national greenhouse gas inventories
and the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).
The 43rd Session of the IPCC held in April 2016 agreed that the AR6
Synthesis Report would be finalized in 2022 in time when countries
will review progress towards their goal of keeping global warming to
well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C.
United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• In 1992, countries joined an international treaty, the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as a framework for
international cooperation to combat climate change by limiting average
global temperature increases and the resulting climate change, and coping
with impacts that were, by then, inevitable. UNFCCC came into force in
Turkey on 24.05.2004. The Convention went into force the same year 2004.
• Conference of the Parties (COP): The Conference of the Parties (COP) is
the "supreme body" of the Convention, that is, its highest decision-
making authority.
• It is an association of all the countries that are Parties to the
Convention.
The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC
• The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which commits its
Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.
• Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the

current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of
more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier
burden on developed nations under the principle of "common but
differentiated responsibilities.“
• The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997

and entered into force on 16 February 2005. The detailed rules for the
implementation of the Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh,
Morocco, in 2001, and are referred to as the "Marrakesh Accords." Its first
commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. Turkey ratified
the Kyoto Protocol in 2009.
Doha Amendment
• In Doha, Qatar, on 8 December 2012, the "Doha Amendment to the
Kyoto Protocol" was adopted. The amendment includes:
• New commitments for Annex I Parties to the Kyoto Protocol who
agreed to take on commitments in a second commitment period from
1 January 2013 to 31 December 2020;
• A revised list of greenhouse gases (GHG) to be reported on by Parties
in the second commitment period;
• Amendments to several articles of the Kyoto Protocol which
specifically referenced issues pertaining to the first commitment
period and which needed to be updated for the second commitment
period.
Doha Amendment
• During the first commitment period, 37 industrialized countries and
the European Community committed to reduce GHG emissions to an
average of five percent against 1990 levels.
• During the second commitment period, Parties committed to reduce

GHG emissions by at least 18 percent below 1990 levels in the eight-
year period from 2013 to 2020; however, the composition of Parties
in the second commitment period is different from the first.
The Kyoto Mechanisms
• Under the Protocol, countries must meet their targets primarily through
national measures. However, the Protocol also offers them an additional
means to meet their targets by way of three market-based mechanisms.
• The Kyoto mechanisms are:
• International Emissions Trading
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Joint implementation (JI)
• The mechanisms help to stimulate green investment and help Parties meet
their emission targets in a cost-effective way.
The Paris Agreement
• At COP 21 in Paris, on 12 December 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC
reached a landmark agreement to combat climate change and to
accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a
sustainable low carbon future.
• The Paris Agreement’s central aim is to strengthen the global

response to the threat of climate change by keeping a global
temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-
industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature
increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The Paris Agreement
• The agreement aims to increase the ability of countries to deal with
the impacts of climate change, and at making finance flows consistent
with a low GHG emissions and climate-resilient pathway.
• The Paris Agreement requires all Parties to put forward their best
efforts through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to
strengthen these efforts in the years ahead.
• This includes requirements that all Parties report regularly on their

emissions and on their implementation efforts.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• The Paris Agreement requests each country to outline and
communicate their post-2020 climate actions, known as their NDCs.
• Together, these climate actions determine whether the world

achieves the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement and to reach
global peaking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible
and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best
available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs in the second
half of this century.
The Paris Agreement-The Status of Ratification
• On 5 October 2016, the threshold for the entry into force of the
Paris Agreement was achieved.
• The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016,

thirty days after the date on which at least 55 Parties to the
Convention accounting in total for at least an estimated 55 % of the
total global greenhouse gas emissions have deposited their
instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.
The Paris Agreement-The Status of Ratification
• 196 Parties (countries) have accepted /ratified the Agreement. The
Agreement officially entered into force in 2016.
• Turkey ratified the Agreement on October 6th, 2021. It was

unanimously accepted by the Turkish Parliament.
Santiago Climate Change Conference – COP25
December 2019 (www.unfccc.int)
• The Santiago Climate Change Conference was planned to

take place in Parque Bicentenario Cerrillos in Santiago de
Chile, from 2 to 13 December, 2019. However, due to
political unrest and uncertainities, the meeting was moved
to Madrid, Spain.
Dealing with Climate Change:
Mitigation and Adaptation
Mitigation activities Adaptation activities

Reducing emissions of Managing the change that
greenhouse gases occurs as mitigation strategies
are implemented.
What is mitigation? (www.unfccc.int)
• As there is a direct relation between global average temperatures and
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the key for
the solution to the climate change problem rests in decreasing the
amount of emissions released into the atmosphere and in reducing
the current concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) by enhancing sinks
(e.g. increasing the area of forests).
• Efforts to reduce emissions and enhance sinks are referred to as

“mitigation”.
• The Convention requires all Parties, keeping in mind their
responsibilities and capabilities, to formulate and implement
programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change.
• Such programmes target economic activity with an aim to incentivize
actions that are cleaner or disincentive those that result in large
amounts of GHGs.
• They include policies, incentives schemes and investment
programmes which address all sectors, including energy generation
and use, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and other
land use, and waste management.
• Mitigation measures are translated in, for example, an increased use
of renewable energy, the application of new technologies such as
electric cars, or changes in practices or behaviours, such as driving
less or changing one’s diet.
Key Mitigation Instruments,
Policies and Practices
• Research, development and

demonstration
• Appropriate energy infrastructure
investments
• Regulations and standards
• Taxes and charges
• Change in lifestyles and consumption
patterns
25
What is adaptation?
• Adaptation, refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or economic

systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their
effects or impacts.
• It refers to changes in processes, practices, and structures to
moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities
associated with climate change.
• In simple terms, countries and communities need to develop
adaptation solution and implement action to respond to the impacts
of climate change that are already happening, as well as prepare for
future impacts.
How do parties address adaptation?
• Parties to the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement recognize that
adaptation is a global challenge faced by all with local, subnational,
national, regional and international dimensions.
• It is a key component of the long-term global response to climate
change to protect people, livelihoods and ecosystems.
• Parties acknowledge that adaptation action should follow a country-
driven, gender-responsive, participatory and fully transparent
approach, considering vulnerable groups, communities and
ecosystems, and should be based on and guided by the best available
science and, as appropriate, traditional knowledge, knowledge of
indigenous peoples and local knowledge systems, with a view to
integrating adaptation into relevant socioeconomic and
environmental policies and actions.
What can you do?
• Reduce personal consumption and emissions
• Walk/drive/bike
• Waste/recycling
• Turn off lights and appliances
• Purchase “green” products
• Increase and protect emissions “sinks”
• Plant trees, protect green spaces
• Buy food from “green” producers
• Tell people you care
• Vote, work on campaigns
• Write and speak to decision-makers - express your values
• Become educated and educate others
The IPCC says we need to: buy less meat, milk, cheese and butter; eat more locally sourced seasonal
food - and throw less of it away; drive electric cars but walk or cycle short distances; take trains and
buses instead of planes; use videoconferencing instead of business travel; use a washing line instead
of a tumble dryer; insulate homes; demand low carbon in every consumer product.
The single biggest way to reduce your environmental impact on the planet is to modify your diet to
include less meat - according to recent studies.
Average warming ( ° C) projected by 2100
1.5 ° C
lf countries
do not act
Following
current 3.5
policies
Based on
current 2.9
pledges
Source: Climate Action Tracker, updated November 2017

References
• www.unfccc.int
• www.ipcc.ch
Chapter 9
The Kyoto Protocol
Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement
linked to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change.
• The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets

binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and
the European community for reducing greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions .
• These amount to an average of five per cent against

1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.
Source: www.unfccc.int/kyoto
Kyoto Protocol
• The major distinction between the Protocol and the
Convention is that while the Convention encouraged
industrialised countries to stabilize GHG emissions,
the Protocol commits them to do so.
• Recognizing that developed countries are principally

responsible for the current high levels of GHG
emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more
than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol
places a heavier burden on developed nations under
the principle of “common but differentiated
responsibilities.”
Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on
the 11. December 1997, and entered into force on the
16. February 2005.
• The detailed rules for the implementation of the

Protocol were adopted at COP 7 in Marrakesh in
2001, and are called the “Marrakesh Accords.”
• Currently, there are 193 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

to the UNFCCC.
• Turkey ratified the protocol on the 28th of May 2009,

and it came into force on the 26th of August 2009.
Kyoto Protocol
• The targets cover emissions of the six main
greenhouse gases;
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous oxide (N2O)
• Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
• Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
• Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Kyoto Protocol-Mechanisms
• Countries with commitments under the Kyoto
Protocol to limit or reduce greenhouse gas
emissions must meet their targets primarily
through national measures.
• As an additional means of meeting these targets,

the Kyoto Protocol introduced three market-based
mechanisms, thereby creating what is now known
as the “carbon market.”
• Emissions Trading
• The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
• Joint Implementation (JI)
- Stimulate sustainable development through

technology transfer and investment,
- Help countries with Kyoto commitments to meet

their targets by reducing emissions or removing
carbon from the atmosphere in other countries in a
cost-effective way,
- Encourage the private sector and developing

countries to contribute to emission reduction efforts.
• JI and CDM are the two project-based mechanisms
which feed the carbon market.
• JI enables industrialized countries to carry out joint

implementation projects with other developed
countries.
• An emission reduction unit (ERU) generated by a

joint implementation project
• The CDM involves investment in sustainable

development projects that reduce emissions in
developing countries.
The Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM)
• Under the Clean Development Mechanism, emission-
reduction (or emission removal) projects in
developing countries can earn certified emission
reduction credits.
• These saleable credits can be used by industrialized

countries to meet a part of their emission reduction
targets under the Kyoto Protocol.
Emissions Trading
• Parties with commitments under the Kyoto Protocol
have accepted targets for limiting or reducing
emissions.
• These targets are expressed as levels of allowed

emissions, or “assigned amounts,” over the 2008-
2012 commitment period.
• The allowed emissions are divided into “assigned

amount units” (AAUs).
• Emissions trading allows countries that have

emission units to spare - emissions permitted them
but not "used" - to sell this excess capacity to
countries that are over their targets.
Monitoring Emission Targets
Adaptation
The Kyoto Protocol, like the Convention, is also

designed to assist countries in adapting to the
adverse effects of climate change.
It facilitates the development and deployment of

techniques that can help increase resilience to the
impacts of climate change.
Monitoring Emission Targets
Adaptation
The Adaptation Fund was established to finance

adaptation projects and programmes in developing
countries that are Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.
The Fund is financed mainly with a share of proceeds

from CDM project activities.
Major Milestones in International
Climate Change Governance
• 1992 – The UNFCCC was adopted, entering force in
1994.
• 1997 – The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,

Japan, and enters into force in 2005.
• 2001 – The Marrakesh Accords a set of detailed rules

for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, was
adopted during COP-7 in Marrakesh, Morocco.
• 2007 – Negotiations for a new international treaty to

take over from the Kyoto Protocol in 2012 started in
Bali, Indonesia ; The Bali Road Map.
• 2009 – The main outcome of COP-15, the
Copenhagen Accord, was a non-binding agreement
which seeked to cap the global temperature rise and
raise finances for climate change action in
• 2010 – The Cancun Agreements were adopted during

COP-16 in Cancun, Mexico, containing a package of
decisions on mitigation and adaptation targets,
implementation and funding.
• 2011 – COP-17 Durban, South Africa, November 28-

December 9.
• Doha Climate Change Conference November
2012
• The 18th session of the Conference of the Parties to

the UNFCCC and the 8th session of the Conference
of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to
the Kyoto Protocol opened on Monday, 26 November
and continued until Saturday, 8 December 2012 in
Doha, Qatar.
THE DOHA CLIMATE GATEWAY
• A timetable to adopt a universal climate agreement

by 2015, which will come into effect in 2020.
• Emphasized the need to increase the ambition to cut

greenhouse gases(GHGs) and to help vulnerable
countries to adapt.
• Launched a new commitment period under the Kyoto

Protocol, thereby ensuring that this treaty's
important legal and accounting models remain in
place and underlining the principle that developed
countries lead mandated action to cut greenhouse
gas emissions.
THE DOHA CLIMATE GATEWAY
• Made further progress towards establishing

the financial and technology support and new
institutions to enable clean energy investments and
sustainable growth in developing countries.
Amendment of the Kyoto Protocol
• The Kyoto Protocol, as the only existing and binding
agreement under which developed countries
undertake quantitative commitments to cut
greenhouse gases, was amended so that it could
seamlessly continue;
• Governments decided on an 8-year second

commitment period, which started on January 1st
2013,
• The Kyoto Protocol's Market Mechanisms – the

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint
Implementation (JI) and International Emissions
Trading (IET) – will continue.
• 19th Session of the Conference of the Parties
to the UNFCCC, Warsaw, Poland, 11-22
November 2013.
• www.unfccc.int
Chapter 10
Conference of the Parties

• The Conference of the Parties is the supreme body
of the UNFCCC. The first COP or COP 1 was held in
Berlin-Germany in 1995.
• Other Conference of the Parties with significant

developments:
• COP 3 Kyoto – Japan 1997. Outcome: The Kyoto
Protocol.
• COP 7 Marrakech – Morocco 2001. Outcome: The
Marakech Accords
• COP 8 New Delhi – India 2002. Outcome: The Delhi
Ministerial Declaration
• COP 11 Montreal – Canada 2005.
Outcomes: The Montreal Action Plan.
The meeting also hosted the CMP 1, the
meeting of the parties to the Kyoto
Protocol. 2005 was the year in which
the Kyoto Protocol came into force
(after Russia’s ratification of the
Protocol)
• COP 13 Bali – Indonesia 2007.
Outcomes: The Bali Road Map.
• COP 15 Copenhagen – Denmark 2009.
Outcomes: The Copenhagen Accords.
2010-2013-Cancun
COP 16 Cancun – Mexico
29 November – 10 December 2010
Outcomes: The Cancun Agreements.
- Mitigation
• Establish clear goals and a timely schedule for
reducing human-generated greenhouse gas
emissions over time to keep the global average
temperature rise below two degrees;
2010-2013-Cancun
• Encourage the participation of all countries in
reducing these emissions, in accordance with
each country's different responsibilities and
capabilities to do so.
• Review progress made towards two-degree

objective, and a review by 2015 on whether the
objective needs to be strengthened in future,
including the consideration of a 1.5C goal, on
the basis of the best scientific knowledge
available.
2010-2013-Cancun
• - Transparency of actions
– Ensure international transparency of the
actions which are taken by countries, and
ensure that global progress towards the
2C goal is reviewed in a timely way.
• -Technology
– Mobilize the development and transfer of
clean technology to boost efforts to
address climate change, getting it to the
right place at the right time and for the
best effect on both adaptation and
2010-2013-Cancun
• -Finance
– Mobilize and provide scaled-up funds in
the short and long term to enable
developing countries to take greater and
effective action.
– Set up the Green Climate Fund to provide
support to developing countries to assist
them in mitigating climate change and
adapting to its impacts.
2010-2013-Cancun
• - Adaptation
– Assist the particularly vulnerable people in
the world to adapt to the inevitable
impacts of climate change by taking a
coordinated approach to adaptation.
• Forests
– Protect the world's forests. Governments
agreed to launch concrete action on
forests in developing nations. The full
financing options for the implementation
of such mitigation actions in the forest
2010-2013-Durban
COP 17 Durban – South Africa
Outcomes: The Durban Platform of
Enhanced Action.
- Second commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol
2010-2013-Durban
– The continuation of the current
international legal system through a
second commitment period of the Kyoto
Protocol, under which developed countries
commit to greenhouse gas cuts and which
enshrines existing accounting rules and
models of international cooperation that
may inform future efforts.
2010-2013-Durban
• Launch of new platform of negotiations
– The launch of a new platform of
negotiations under the Convention to deliver a
new and universal greenhouse gas reduction
protocol, legal instrument or other outcome
with legal force by 2015 for the period beyond
2020. This new negotiation critically includes
finding ways to further raise the existing level
of national and international action and stated
ambition to bring greenhouse gas emissions
down.
2010-2013-Durban
• Conclusion in 2012 of existing broad-
based stream of negotiations
– A decision to conclude within 2012 the work
of the existing broad-based stream of
negotiations that includes all member nations
under the Convention. This includes work to
make existing national emission reduction or
emission limitation plans more transparent.
2010-2013-Durban
– . It also encompasses the launch and long-
term implementation of the comprehensive
global support network that will deliver funding
and technology to help developing countries
build their own clean energy futures and
construct societies and economies which are
resilient to climate change.
2010-2013-Durban
• Global Review
– To scope out and then conduct a fresh
global Review of the emerging climate
challenge, based on the best available
science and data, first to ensure whether a
maximum two-degree rise is enough or
whether an even lower 1.5 degree rise is
required, and then to ensure that collective
action is adequate to prevent the average
global temperature rising beyond the agreed
limit.
2010-2013-Doha
COP 18 Doha – Qatar
Outcomes: The Doha Climate Gateway
Timetable for the 2015 global climate
change agreement and increasing ambition
before 2020.
2010-2013-Doha
Timetable for the 2015 global climate change

agreement and increasing ambition before
2020, So that the world has a chance to stay
below an agreed maximum 2 degrees Celsius
temperature rise, beyond which even more
serious climate change impacts will occur,
governments agreed to:
2010-2013-Doha
– Speedily work toward a universal climate
change agreement covering all countries
from 2020, to be adopted by 2015.
– Find ways to scale up efforts before 2020

beyond the existing pledges to curb
emissions.
2010-2013-Doha
• Amendment of the Kyoto Protocol
– Governments decided on an 8-year second
commitment period, which started on January
1st 2013.
– The legal requirements that will allow a
smooth continuation of the Protocol were
agreed, and the valuable accounting rules of
the Protocol were preserved.
2010-2013-Doha
– Countries that are taking on further
commitments under the Kyoto Protocol
agreed to review their emission reduction
commitments at the latest by 2014, with a
view to increasing their respective levels of
ambition.
– The Kyoto Protocol's Market Mechanisms –
the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM),
Joint Implementation (JI) and International
Emissions Trading (IET) – will continue.
2010-2013-Doha
• Long-term climate finance
– Developed countries reiterated their
commitment to deliver on promises to
continue long term climate finance support to
developing nations, with a view to mobilizing
USD 100 billion annually from a variety of
sources both for adaptation and mitigation by
2020.
2010-2013-Doha
• Review
-Governments launched a robust process to
review the long-term temperature goal, which is
to start in 2013 and conclude by 2015, aimed at
providing a reality check on the advance of the
climate change threat and the possible need to
mobilize further action.
2010-2013-Doha
• Support of developing country action
• New market mechanisms
• Actions on forests
2010-2013-Warsaw
COP 19 Warsaw – Poland
11-23 November 2013
Outcomes: The Warsaw Outcomes
Decisions towards a universal
agreement in December 2015, which
will enter into force in 2020.
2010-2013-Warsaw
– Governments advanced the timeline for the
development of the 2015 agreement.
– Governments decided to either begin or to
intensify domestic preparations for their
nationally determined contributions towards
the agreement so that they are ready well
before December 2015 and ideally by the first
quarter in 2015.
2010-2013-Warsaw
– It was also decided that nationally determined
contributions would be put forward in a clear
and transparent manner. Developed country
governments were urged to provide support to
developing countries for this important
domestic process. Governments agreed to
identify the precise information that countries
will provide when putting forward their
nationally determined contributions by the
beginning of the UN Climate Change
Conference in Lima at the end of 2014.
2010-2013-Warsaw
• Closing the pre-2020 ambition gap
– Governments resolved to strengthen
measures to close the "ambition gap" – the
gap between what has been pledged to date
and what is required to keep the world below
a maximum average 2 degrees Celsius
temperature rise - before the new agreement
enters into force in 2020.
2010-2013-Warsaw
• The urgency to support peoples
affected by climate change impacts
– Governments established the Warsaw
International Mechanism for Loss and
Damage. The mechanism will address losses
and damages associated with long-term
climate change impacts in developing
countries that are especially vulnerable to
such impacts.
2010-2013-Warsaw
• Strengthening efforts to mobilize USD
100 billion by 2020.
– In view of developed countries' commitment to
mobilize USD 100 billion annually by 2020 to
support developing countries in their climate
change actions, developed countries agreed
to make their efforts in this regard publicly
known on a biennial basis from 2014 to 2020.
2010-2013-Warsaw
• Cutting emissions from deforestation –
«the Warsaw Framework for Reducing
Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degredation in developing
countries(REDD+)»
• Progress on driving adaptation
• Progress towards accountability
• Technology to boost action on climate
change
2014-2015-Lima
• COP 20 Lima – Peru
• 1 – 12 December 2014
• Objectives: While this will be the next
conference in the annual series, more
attention is directed toward the 2015
conference in Paris. The conference
delegates will continue the negotiations
towards a global climate agreement.
2014-2015-Paris
• COP 21 Paris – France
• 30 November – 11 December 2015
• Most Important outcome is the Paris
Agreement:
• The Agreement aims to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in order to limit the rise in global average
temperature to well below 2ºC above pre-industrial
levels, with an effort to limit the increase to 1.5ºC. It will
to do this through measures set by each country –
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – and
reviewed regularly.
2014-2015-Paris
• Each Party shall regularly provide information on
anthropogenic emissions by sources and
removals by sinks of greenhouse gases, using
methodologies accepted by the IPCC and
agreed by the COP.
• In decision 1/CP.21 of the Paris Agreement,
Parties invited the IPCC to provide by 2018, a
Special Report on the impacts of global warming
of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related
global greenhouse gas emission pathways.
2014-2015-Paris
• Under the Agreement, Parties are set to make
an initial informal review of their collective efforts
to reach their goals in 2018, and starting in 2023
they will hold a global stocktake every five
years.
• Since the global stocktake will use the latest
reports of the IPCC as one of its inputs, the
IPCC also agreed to consider by 2018 how best
to align its work during the Seventh Assessment
Report (which will take place from 2023-2028)
with the needs of the global stocktake process.
2016-2019-Marraketch
• COP 22 met imn Marraketch between 7
November – 18 November
• The meeting focused on the implementation
of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Countries pledged to accelerate global
climate action across a broad range of
areas and set a deadline of 2018 to
complete the rulebook for operationalizing
the Paris Agreement, which entered into
force on 4 November 2016.
• COP22 adopted the “Marrakech Action
Proclamation for a new era of
implementation and action,” which
recognizes the global momentum on
climate change and sustainable
development action by governments,
businesses, investors, sub-regional
government and cities.
• Businesses, investors, cities and local
governments also pledged new climate
change commitments such as multi-million
dollar packages of support for clean
technologies, building capacity to report on
climate action plans, and initiatives for
boosting water and food security in
2016-2019 Bonn-Fiji
• COP 23 met in Bonn, Germany between
6-17 November 2017.
• The Conference President was the Prime
Minister of Fiji.
• The focus was on implementing the Paris
Agreement after 2020.
• An important focus was on the Pacific
Islands regarding sea level rise and
typhoons.
2016-2019 Katowice
• COP 24 met in Katowice, Poland between
2-15 December 2018.
• The main topic of discusion was again the
implementation of the Paris Agreement.
• The urgency of actions to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions requires more
tools at national and sub-national level to
support stakeholders in taking effective
and efficient actions.
2016-2019 Katowice
• An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Special Report on Global
Warming of 1.5°C said this target was
physically possible but would require
unprecedented changes in our lifestyle,
energy and transport systems.
2016-2019 Chile-Spain
• The UN Climate Change Conference
COP 25 (2 – 13 December 2019) took
place under the Presidency of the
Government of Chile and was held with
logistical support from the Government of
Spain.
• The Conference President was the Prime
Minister of Chile
2016-2019 Chile-Spain
• The climate talks ended without providing a
direction to the road ahead and clearly lacked
decisive leadership or good intentions. Even as
differences between governments regarding
climate action was evident, the larger question of
dealing with carbon credits to offset emissions
and, more importantly, the issue of providing aid
and support to vulnerable and poor countries for
loss due to climate change, wasn’t addressed
adequately.
2016-2019 Chile & Spain
• It was noted that climate negotiators were
not serious enough to tackle climate
change and the international community
lost an important opportunity to show
increased ambition on mitigation,
adaptation and finance to tackle the
climate crisis.
2020/2021- Glasgow
• COP 26 in Glasgow, planned take place
in 2020 was postponed to 1-12 November
2021, due to Covid 19 Outbreak.
• The COP26 summit brought parties
together to accelerate action towards the
goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN
Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
2021 Glasgow
• Four goals of COP26
• Finalize the Paris Rulebook
• Mobilizing Climate Finance
• Adapting to protect communities and
natural habitats
• Securing global net zero by 2050 and
keeping 1.5 degrees within reach
Chapter 10. Renewable Energy
What is clean energy ? ( US EPA)
• Clean energy includes renewable energy, energy efficiency and
efficient combined heat and power.
• Reduced air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions

• Lower consumer energy bills
• Enhanced state and local economic development and job creation
• Improved energy system reliability and security
Environmental Impacts of the Electricity System
(US EPA)
• Emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants, especially
when a fuel is burned.
• Use of water resources to produce steam, provide cooling, and serve
other functions.
• Discharges of pollution into water bodies, including thermal pollution
(water that is hotter than the original temperature of the water
body).
• Generation of solid waste, which may include hazardous waste.
• Land use for fuel production, power generation, and transmission and
distribution lines.
• Effects on plants, animals, and ecosystems that result from the air,
water, waste, and land impacts above.
Renewable Energy Sources
• Biomass/Bioenergy
• Sun
• Wind
• Geothermal
• Hydro
• Wave & Tidal
Emissions from Energy Sources (WNA)
Renewable Energy Technologies
Show by Country/area Year

E I ectıricity Gene rati on AII 2018
8.3%
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■
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■ ■
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■ ■
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Geottıf!rmal energy Solar thermal erıergy
© IRENIA
Renewable Energy Technologies
Show by Country/area Year

1 nstall le d Ca pa city AII 2018
-
20.4%
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■ ■ ■
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Category Detail by
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BIOMASS
• Materials produced by metabolic activities of biological systems and/or products of
their decomposition or conversion.
• Biomass is collected and stored solar energy. Biomass fuels have an important role to
play in the mitigation of climate change.
• Using modern energy conversion technologies, it is possible to displace fossil fuels with
an equivalent biofuel.
• When biomass is grown sustainably for energy, with the amount grown equal to that
burned for a given period, there is not net build up of CO2, because the amount of CO2
released in combustion is compensated for by that absorbed by the growing energy
crop.
BIOMASS/BIOENERGY (IRENA-INTERNATIONAL
RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY, www.irena.org)
• Bioenergy use falls into two main categories: “traditional” and
“modern”.
• Traditional use refers to the combustion of biomass in such forms as
wood, animal waste and traditional charcoal.
• Modern bioenergy technologies include liquid biofuels produced from
bagasse and other plants; bio-refineries; biogas produced through
anaerobic digestion of residues; wood pellet heating systems; and
other technologies.
BIOMASS/BIOENERGY (IRENA-INTERNATIONAL
RENEWABLE ENERGY AGENCY, www.irena.org)
• Biomass has significant potential to boost energy supplies in populous
nations with rising demand, such as Brazil, India and China.
• It can be directly burned for heating or power generation, or it can be
converted into oil or gas substitutes.
• Liquid biofuels, a convenient renewable substitute for gasoline, are
mostly used in the transport sector.
• Brazil is the leader in liquid biofuels and has the largest fleet of
flexible-fuel vehicles, which can run on bioethanol – an alcohol mostly
made by the fermentation of carbohydrates in sugar or starch crops,
such as corn, sugarcane or sweet sorghum.
BIOMASS ENERGY SOURCES
(Source: Botkin & Keller, 2011)
Sources Examples Uses/Products Comment
Forest Products Wood, chips Direct burning Major source in

developing count.
Agriculture Residues Coconut husks,
sugarcan waste Direct burning Minor source ??
peanut shells
Energy Crops Corn, Sugarcane Ethanol, gasification Ethanol major source
of fuels in Brasil
Algae and Bacteria Special farms Experimental
Trees Palm oil Biodiesel
Animal Residues Manure Methane
Urban Waste Waste paper, organic Direct burning of Minor source ??

household waste methane
Couıntry Rankinıgs 13
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l Tırends in Reınewablle Eneırgy llnvestment
Catego,ry Detail by
By Sector M ullti p 1 1e vaılu es
162% 101% 10% -20% .20% IS% -26% -ıs% -38% 38%
A. A. A. T A. A. y T T A.
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Biofuels
■ Biomass & waste-to-eııergy
Soıırn@ FırankfıurtSchool-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2020.Glolbal Trendsin Reınewable Energy lııvestıment 2020,

http://wwwJs-unep-ceııtre.org. Note: lnvestmeııt volume adjust5 for re-inves.ted equ�ty. Total values iııclude e.s.tiımates for
uındisclos.ed deals.
lınstallled Capacity 'lrends
Navigate througlı the füters to explore trerıds in renewable eııergy
Show by
1 nstalle d Capaı:: ity
120K
,eo u ntry/area
AJII
i: 100K
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■
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40K
20K
OK
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ı©IRIENA..
BARRIERS
• Due to socio-economic, cultural, institutional, technical barriers - Public
concerns:
• possible destruction of native forests,

• perceived problems with dioxins,
• possible deleterious effects of large-scale dedicated energy plantations on
water resources,
• possible effects on soils by continuous removal of residues for energy,
• effects on biodiversity,
• increased traffic (transportation of biomass),
• competition for land between food and fuel crops.
BIOGAS
(Source: www.fnr.de)
• Biogas is produced through the microbial degradation of organic
matter in humid conditions and the simultaneous absence of air
(anaerobic environment).
• In a biological decomposition process (digestion /fermentation), the

organic biomass is converted into the main components methane and
carbon dioxide.
BIOGAS
(Source: www.fnr.de)
• The final product is combustible biogas, a mixture essentially
consisting of methane (50-75 %), carbon dioxide ( 25-45 %) as well as
small amounts of water (2-7 %), hydrogen sulfide, oxygen, nitrogen,
ammonia, hydrogen and other trace gases.
• The energetic value of one cubic meter of biogas is about six kilowatt
hours (6 kWh), with a 60 % methane (CH4) content. The average
calorific value of a cubic meter of biogas is approximately 0.6 liters of
fuel oil .
COMPOSITION OF BIOGAS
(Source: FNR, 2009)
Component Symbol Percentage (%)

Methane CH4 50-75
Carbon dioxide CO2 25-45
Nitrogen N2 <2
Oxygen O2 <2
Water H2O 2-7
Hydrogen sulphide H2S <1
CHARACTERISTICS OF BIOGAS
(Source: FNR, 2012; www.fnr.de)
1 m3 biogas 5.0-7.5 kWh (total)

1 m3 biogas 50-75 % methane content
1 m3 biogas 1.9-3.2 kWh (electricity)
1 m3 biogas Approx. 0.6 l heating oil equivalent
1 m3 methane (CH4) 9.97 kWh (total)
1 m3 methane (CH4) 3.3-4.3 kWh (electricity)
1 m3 methane (CH4) 1 l heating oil equivalent
BIOGAS PLANT
USE OF BIOGAS
BIOGAS PLANTS GERMANY
ANLAGEN ZUR BIOMETHAN-PRODUKTION
Anlagen Einspeisekapazitat Biomethan (Nm 3 /h)
206 208
················•·····························································•··············································································196 135.000
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Anlagen + Einspeisekapazitat * Prognose
Quelle: FNR nach dena (September 2017) © FNR 2017

European Biogas Association (EBA) Report 2018
European Biogas Association (EBA) Report 2018
SOLAR ENERGY – SOLAR WATER HEATING
• Water can be heated to modest temperatures (less than 100°C) to provide
hot water for use in swimming pools, the home and low temperature
commercial processes.
• Water can be heated to temperatures to raise steam to drive turbines to

generate electricity.
• Solar water heating technology is much less dependent on the architecture

and construction of a particular building; it can be added to pre-existing
buildings, or built in isolation.
• Passive Solar Heating

SOLAR ENERGY (www.irena.org)
• Energy can be harnessed directly from the sun, even in cloudy weather.
Solar energy is used worldwide and is increasingly popular for generating
electricity or heating and desalinating water. Solar power is generated in
two main ways:
• Photovoltaics (PV), also called solar cells, are electronic devices that convert
sunlight directly into electricity.
• The modern solar cell is likely an image most people would recognise – they are
in the panels installed on houses and in calculators. They were invented in 1954
at Bell Telephone Laboratories in the United States.
• Today, PV is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy technologies, and is
ready to play a major role in the future global electricity generation mix.
• Solar PV installations can be combined to provide electricity on a commercial
scale, or arranged in smaller configurations for mini-grids or personal use.
• Using solar PV to power mini-grids is an excellent way to bring electricity access
to people who do not live near power transmission lines, particularly in
developing countries with excellent solar energy resources.
• The cost of manufacturing solar panels has plummeted dramatically in the last
decade, making them not only affordable but often the cheapest form of
electricity.
• Solar panels have a lifespan of roughly 30 years, and come in variety of shapes
depending on the type of material used in manufacturing.
• Concentrated solar power (CSP), uses mirrors to concentrate solar rays. These
rays heat fluid, which creates steam to drive a turbine and generate electricity.
CSP is used to generate electricity in large-scale power plants.
• A CSP power plant usually features a field of mirrors that redirect rays to a tall
thin tower.
• One of the main advantages of a CSP power plant over a solar PV power plant is
that it can be equipped with molten salts in which heat can be stored, allowing
electricity to be generated after the sun has set.
PHOTOVOLTAICS (PVs) - BENEFITS
- Development of PV converters is at the stage in which prices are still
coming down
- PVs have low operating costs
- They consume no fuel
- No direct C emissions
• Their peak power can be only realized on a clear day, with the
converter facing the Sun.
• In some cases, the average energy generated may exceed the demand
of the building, however, it will be generated only on sunny days, not
on rainy ones, nor will there be any generation at night.
El,ectricity Geıneratimı Solar energy AII 2018
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Solar PV IModule Costs 2010-201.S
Select Technology
Ali
3.5
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■ Orystalllrıne Eıurope (Gemıaıny} Maıins.treaım
■ Orystallll'ıne Jaıpaın ■ Tlıin füm a-Si
®IR.ENA.
Catego,ry Detail by
By Sector Sollar eınergy
74% 61% 160% 57% -16%

.& .& .& .& T
C
.2 150.0ı
..cı
C
....C 100.0ı
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201.5 2016 l017 2018 2019
Sollar eınergy
Soıırn@ Fnmkfıurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2020.Glolbal Trendsin Renewable Eııergy lııvestment 2020,
http://wwwJs-unep-ceııtre.org. Note: lnvestmeııt volume adjust5 for re-inves.ted equ�ty. Total values iııclude e.stiımates for
Electıricity Geıneration Trends
Navigate through the filters to explore trendsin renewable energy
Show by
Electri city Ge ırıerati,o n
SOOK Co u ntry / area

Ali
.c
� Technology
� Solar
C
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'®IRENA..
PHOTOVOLTAICS (PVs) -NASA
SUN POWER – PHOTOVOLTAICS (PVs) -NASA
• Grid Connected PV System (Source: Zodiac energy)
• Off Grid System (Source: Zodiac energy)
PVs -The Lieberose Photovoltaic Park in Germany
PVs - The Solar Settlement, a sustainable housing
community project in Freiburg, Germany
PV Power in Turkey
• Total installed capacity : 7325 MW (July 2021)

• Share in total electricity production: 4.2 %
• Share in total installed capacity: 7.5 %
Bogazici University
• PVs used for electricity
generation at the North,
South, and Kandilli campus
• Use of sun power_hot water
for dormitory
WIND POWER (Hardy, Climate Change)
• What is a wind turbine and how does it work ?
A wind energy system transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into
mechanical or electrical energy that can be harnessed for practical use.
Mechanical energy is most commonly used for pumping water in rural

or remote locations.
Wind electric turbines generate electricity for homes, businesses and

for sale to utilities.
• Turbine systems include;
A rotor, or blades, which converts the wind’s energy into rotational shaft
energy,
A nacelle (enclosure) containing a drive train, usually including a gearbox and

a generator,
A tower to support the rotor and drive train, and
Electronic equipment such as controls, electrical cables, ground support

equipment, and interconnection equipment
• How much energy can one wind turbine generate ?
The ability to generate electricity is measured in watts.
Electricity consumption and production are most commonly measured

in kWh.
A 10 kW wind turbine can generate about 16,000kWh annually.
This is enough to power a typical household.

WIND ENERGY (www.irena.org)
• Wind power is one of the fastest-growing renewable energy technologies.
Usage is on the rise worldwide, in part because costs are falling.
• Global installed wind-generation capacity onshore and offshore has
increased by a factor of almost 75 in the past two decades, jumping from
7.5 gigawatts (GW) in 1997 to some 564 GW by 2018.
• Production of wind electricity doubled between 2009 and 2013, and in
2016 wind energy accounted for 16% of the electricity generated by
renewables.
• Many parts of the world have strong wind speeds, but the best locations
for generating wind power are sometimes remote ones. Offshore wind
power offers tremendous potential.
• Wind turbines first emerged more than a century ago.
• Following the invention of the electric generator in the 1830s,
engineers started attempting to harness wind energy to produce
electricity.
• Wind power generation took place in the United Kingdom and the
United States in 1887 and 1888, but modern wind power is
considered to have been first developed in Denmark, where
horizontal-axis wind turbines were built in 1891 and a 22.8-metre
wind turbine began operation in 1897.
• Wind is used to produce electricity using the kinetic energy created
by air in motion.
• This is transformed into electrical energy using wind turbines or wind
energy conversion systems.
• Wind first hits a turbine’s blades, causing them to rotate and turn the
turbine connected to them.
• That changes the kinetic energy to rotational energy, by moving a
shaft which is connected to a generator, and thereby producing
electrical energy through electromagnetism.
• The amount of power that can be harvested from wind depends on
the size of the turbine and the length of its blades. The output is
proportional to the dimensions of the rotor and to the cube of the
wind speed.
• Theoretically, when wind speed doubles, wind power potential
increases by a factor of eight.
• Commercially available wind turbines have reached 8 MW capacity,
with rotor diameters of up to 164 metres. The average capacity of
wind turbines increased from 1.6 MW in 2009 to 2 MW in 2014.
WIND POWER - BENEFITS
- Wind power plants emit absolutely no C
- The operation of wind turbines leaves behind no
dangerous residues (like nuclear plants)
- Decomissioning costs of wind turbines are much
smaller
- Land occupied by wind farms can find other
simultaneous uses (agriculture)
WIND (US Energy Department)
WIND POWER – ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• Visual
• Electromagnetic interference
• Ecological
• Noise
• Some groups are opposed to wind turbines because of the danger

they constitute to the birds that fly near the wind farms.
Show by
Couıntry Rankinrgs
Technology Sub-technology Year

mo
Electridty Geııeratioıı Wind ,ene rgy Ali 2018
Ellectridty Generatioıı (,G,Wıh)
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Tech nol,ogy
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IRE NA Renewable Cost Daıta base..
Catego,ry Detail by
By Sector Wind ,eneırgy
43% 35% 1 66% 26% -2:% 35% -15% -6%

A. A. A. A. ... A. .... y
C
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
■ Wind e, neırgy
Soıırn@ FrnnkfıurtSchool-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2020.Glolbal Trendsin Reınewable Eııergy lııvestment 2020,

lınstallled Capacity Trends
Show by
1 nstalle d Capacity
600K
Co u ntry / area
Ali
� 500K
Technology
-� Wind
400K Su b-tec h no logy

Ali
■ Offshore Wiııd
300K
■ Onshore Wind
200K
100K
OK
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
'®IRENA..
Show by
1,200K
Co u ntry / area
Ali
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� 1,000K
Technology
�
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'®IRENA..
Bogazici University
• Wind power plant located at

Kilyos Campus
• 1 MW capacity
• 40 % surplus electricity
generation
• 900 tonnes of C saving
annually
GEOTHERMAL
• Geothermal energy is mainly derived from radiactive decay of isotopes
(principally Thorium-232, Uranium-238 and Potassium-40) deep within the
Earth.
• The remaining is from heat left over from the original coalescence of
matter that formed the Earth, where the kinetic and potential
(gravitational) energy of the accreting particles was converted into heat.
• Geothermal power would seem to be a large environmentally benign

approach to energy production.
• The degree to which geothermal energy is renewable depends on the

balance between how fast energy is removed compared to how fast it is
replenished by the Earth.
GEOTHERMAL (Geothermal Energy Association)
GEOTHERMAL (IPCC Special Report 2011)
GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
GEOTHERMAL (Geothermal Energy Association)
GEOTHERMAL (US Energy Department)
Geothermal
energy plant at
The Geysers near
Santa Rosa in
Northern
California, the
world's largest
electricity-
generating
geothermal
development.
El,ectricity Geıneratimı Geothermal ,ener,gy AII 2018
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Catego,ry Detail by
By Sector G eotlhermal eneı-gy
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201.5 2016 2017 2018 2019
■ ,G eotlhermal eneı-gy
Soıırn@ FrnnkfıurtSchool-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2020.Glolbal Trendsin Reınewable Eııergy lııvestment 2020,

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY DATA
9OK Show by
SOK Co u ntry / area

Ali
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'®IRENA..
GEOTHERMAL – ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• Release of hydrogen sulfide
• Chance of land subsidence
• Risk of inreased seismicity
• Pollution of surface waters
HYDRO POWER (www.irena.org)
• Hydropower is energy derived from flowing water.
• The basic principle of hydropower is using water to drive turbines.
• Hydropower plants consist of two basic configurations: with dams and
reservoirs, or without.
• Hydropower dams with a large reservoir can store water over short or long
periods to meet peak demand.
• The facilities can also be divided into smaller dams for different purposes,
such as night or day use, seasonal storage, or pumped-storage reversible
plants, for both pumping and electricity generation.
• Hydropower without dams and reservoirs means producing at a smaller
scale, typically from a facility designed to operate in a river without
interfering in its flow.
• For this reason, many consider small-scale hydro a more environmentally-
friendly option.
HYDRO POWER
HYDRO POWER – ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
-BENEFITS
Large scale hydro power benefits;
1) Often cheap
2) No fossil fuel use
3) No direct C emissions
4) The reservoir can create a recreational facility
HYDRO POWER – ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
1) The need to resettle a large number of people

2) The loss of important archaeological remains
3) Loss of habitat
4) Loss of rare species
5) Major impacts on the river wildlife and humans on the downstream
side of the dam
6) Methane production from rotting vegetation in the flooded area
7) Loss of human life from dam failures
HYDROPOWER (IPCC Special Report 2011)
HYDROPOWER Data
Electıricity Geıneration Tırendls
Navigate Uırough the filters to explore trendsin renewable energy
Show by
Electricity Generatfon
4,000K
Country/area
Ali
3,SOOK
..c.
Technıology
C
3,000K
Hydropower (exd. Pu ...
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'®IRENA..
Catego,ry Detail by
By Sector Small lhydıropoweır
16:8% 17% -10% 30% -7% -43%

A. A. T A. T T
8,0
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201.5 2016 2017 2018 2019
■ Small lhydıropoweır
Soıırn@ F,rankfıurtSchool-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2020.Glolbal Trendsin Renewable Energy lııvestment 2020,

El,ectricity Geıneratimı Multiple valııes AII 2018
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OCEAN ENERGY (www.irena.org)
• Tides, waves and currents can be used to produce electricity.
Although still at the research and development stage and not yet
commercially available, promising ocean technologies include:
• Wave energy, whereby converters capture the energy contained in
ocean waves and use it to generate electricity.
• Converters include oscillating water columns that trap air pockets to
drive a turbine; oscillating body converters that use wave motion; and
overtopping converters that make use of height differences.
• Tidal energy, produced either by tidal-range technologies using a
barrage (a dam or other barrier) to harvest power between high and
low tide; tidal-current or tidal-stream technologies; or hybrid
applications.
• Salinity gradient energy, arising from differing salt concentrations, as

occurs where a river empties into an ocean. Demonstration projects
use "pressure retarded osmosis", with freshwater flowing through a
membrane to increase the pressure in a tank of saltwater; and
"reverse electro dialysis" with ions of salt passing through alternating
tanks of salt- and freshwater.
• Ocean thermal energy conversion, which generates power from the
temperature difference between warm surface seawater and cold
seawater at 800–1,000 metres depth.
• Pollution-free
• Continuous source
• For remote island communities
Show by
1K
Co u ntry / area
Ali
Technology
Marine
Su b-tec h no logy
Marine
■ Manirıe
OK
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'®IRENA..
El,ectricity Geıneratimı M.ınine energy AII 2018
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lns.talled Capacity Ali AII 2018
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El,ectricity Geıneratimı Ali AII 2018
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Renewable Energy Sources _Turkey
• Hydro
• Biomass (Biogas, LFG)
• Geothermal
• Sun
• Wind
Energy Use by Source in Turkey - 2018
Solar; 2,60%
Geothermal; Other ; 1,40% Energy Source Percentage
2,50%
Coal 37.30%
Wind; 6,60% Coal; 37,30%
Natural Gas 29.80%
Hydraulic Energy 19.80%
Hydraulic
Energy; 19,80% Wind 6.60%
Geothermal 2.50%
Solar 2.60%
Other 1.40%
Natural Gas;
29,80%
Nuclear Energy 0%
NPPs planned to become operational in 2023:

• Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant It is planned to produce 80 billion kWh
• Sinop Nuclear Power Plant electricity, annually.
https://www.enerji.gov.tr/tr-TR/Sayfalar/Elektrik
RE Law Turkey – Feed in Tariff (USD cent/kWh)
Plant type Basic rate Bonus Max.
Hydro 7,3 2,3 9,6
Wind 7,3 3,7 11
PV 13,3 6,7 20
Biomass (landfill gas) 13,3 5,6 18,9
Geothermal 10,5 2,7 13,2
Biomass_Turkey (Ministry of Energy)
• Biomass Potential: 8.6 Mtoe
• Biogas Potential: 1.5-2 Mtoe
• OFMSW; Animal manure; Agricultural waste
• Total installed capacity: 569 MW (March, 2019; Economist)
• Landfill gas (LFG)
• Electricity generation from LFG in Istanbul (Odayeri Landfill Site-45 MW,

Kömürcüoda-Şile Landfill Site-20 MW; Power generation for 600.000 people)
Odayeri W2E Plant (Istanbul)- LFG
BIOGAS PLANTS TURKEY
Hexagon Pamukova Plant
SÜTAŞ Biogas Plant
Geothermal Power_Turkey
Geothermal Power_Turkey
Jeotermal Kaynaklar ve Uygulama Haritası
K A R A o E N z
T.C
E.T.K.B.
MTA GENEL MÜDÜRLÜ�Ü
z
w
C
w
(!)
w
·-=�ı:::ıı■t
■
50
::::::::0j0i■ı-�===2�0■0-IIIIİ250km
:::::::
1 1 50
AÇIKLAMA
e Sıca lığı 7 -1 'C olan ayna lar

k 0 00 k k Jeoter m al Enerji ile Çalışan Elektrik Sa n tralleri
D E e Sıca lığı -69 'C olan kaynaklar

k 50 Jeoter m al Enerji ile Çalışabilecek Elektrik Santralleri
Kurul ması Olası Sahalar
e Sıca lığı 2 -49 'C olan ayna lar
k 0 k k Konut ısıt macılığı yapılan sahalar
n
� Şehir merkezleri '- Fay
Dü ük Yüksek
Sıcaklık Dağılı mı
Not: Renklendir m e için jeoter mal alanda en yüksek sıcaklık değeri kullanıl mıştır.
Düzenleyen: Macit KARADAĞLAR
Kızıldere-3 Geothermal Power Plant Unit-1
• 99.49 MW
• 2017
• Denizli
Kızıldere-3 Geothermal Power Plant Unit-2
• 65.51 MW
• 2018
• Denizli
Solar Power_Turkey
Solar Power_Turkey
Solar Power_Turkey
Total installed
capacity (2019):
5995 MW (TEİAŞ)
Konya Karapınar Solar Power Plant
• Karapinar SPP located in Karapinar region of Konya has a total
capacity of 4.400 kWp with an estimated annual energy production of
roughy 7.181.600 kWh, avoiding the emission of over 4.368 tons of
CO2 per year
• Plant located on the area of 82.500 m2 was commissioned on July

2015.
Konya Karapınar Solar Power Plant
Wind Power_Turkey (www.mgm.gov.tr)
Wind Power_Turkey (www.mgm.gvo.tr)
Wind Power_Turkey
Wind Power_Turkey (TUREB/TWEA-2021)
• Installed capacity: 10585 MW (as of July 2021)
• Wind power plants produce % 9.22 of our total electricity.
• Power plants are situated in the Agean Region, Marmara Region,
Mediterranean Region and Inner Anatolia.
• Source: TWEA Report, 2021

Wind Power_Turkey (Ministry of Energy)
• Türkiye'de yer seviyesinden 50 metre yükseklikte ve 7,5 m/s üzeri
rüzgâr hızlarına sahip alanlarda kilometrekare başına 5 MW gücünde
rüzgâr santralı kurulabileceği kabul edilmiştir.
• Türkiye rüzgâr enerjisi potansiyeli 48.000 MW olarak belirlenmiştir.
• Bu potansiyele karşılık gelen toplam alan Türkiye yüz ölçümünün

%1,30'una denk gelmektedir.
RESOURCES
• International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
• Energy Market Regulatory Authority (EMRA-EPDK)
• Turkish Ministry of Energy
• World Energy Council (WEC)
• International Energy Agency (IEA)
• US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA)
• Turkish State Meteorological Service
• Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA)

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ESC305 Lecturenote

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Chapter 1.

• Similarly, the terms "weather" and "climate" are sometimes confused,

• Climate, on the other hand, refers to the long-term regional or even

• The heat-trapping nature of carbon dioxide and other gases was

• About 90 % of this heat is then absorbed by the greenhouse

100 Water vapor (H2'))

• Carbon dioxide (CO2): A minor but very important component of the

• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs): Synthetic compounds entirely of

• Not enough greenhouse effect:

• Because of the low atmospheric

• Too much greenhouse effect:

• But Venus has about 300

• On Earth, human activities are changing the natural greenhouse

• To a lesser extent, the clearing of land for agriculture, industry, and

• The industrial activities that our modern civilization depends upon

Sector End Use/Activity Gas

Rail, Air, Ship & Pipeline 4.3%

Residential Buildings 10.9%

Agnadm & Aslıııg fnel9'1 Use iN

Oil and Natural Gas 3.8%

• % 186,6 increase in GHG emissions (in CO2 eq) between 1990

• CO2 emissions- energy

• Joseph Black identifies

• Henry Cavendish was a

This lowering was sufficient for an ice age.

Arrhenius discussed his

He found out that the added gas through

Svante Arrhenius further estimated that if

• Another highly respected scientist,

• That is absorption bands of CO2 and

• Theoretical work on the question stagnated

• One way or another, then, whatever gases

• Guy Stewart Callendar calculated that 150

• In the first place, they doubted that CO2 had

• The new studies showed that, contrary to earlier

• At lower pressures each absorption band

• Another revolution in analytical chemistry

• More recent studies showed that the

• More and more scientists were joining the

• A two kilometer deep ice core showed a

• The CO2 levels got as low as 180 ppm in the

• Now it was at 380 ppm, never seen in the

• A key point was in the network of feedbacks

• An international meeting of scientists warned

• By 2001, this Intergovernmental Panel on

• Depending on what steps people took to restrict

• 1896- S. Arrhenius blamed the burning of fossil fuels

• 1950s- Global warming sciences started to grow

• 1979- First World Climate Conference in Geneva,

• 1992 – The UNFCCC was adopted, entering force in

• 1997 – The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,

• snow / ice cover • global climate

Observations vis-a-vis Simulations

Palaeo & lnstrumental

Is the Climate Changing ?

"Scientific evidence for warming of the climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

What are the indicators ?

Is the change slow or rapid ?

Biological and physical indicators

The graph shows

• The measurements have proven to be significant in showing the rate

Do we see a change in the CO2 record due to COVID-19