Agenda

 Steps of simulation design

Steps of simulation design

 Simulation design can be broken down into four phases:

 Phase 1 – Discovery and Orientation
 Phase 2 – Model Building and Data Collection
 Phase 3 – Running of the Model
 Phase 4 – Implementation
Steps of simulation design

 There are 12 steps in simulation design as shown in the

diagram.
 The diagram is accurate but not strictly complete
description.
 When simulation design occurs in real time, there may be
feedback loops between many stages.
 Each phase involves certain steps:
 Phase 1: Steps 1, 2
 Phase 2: Steps 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
 Phase 3: Steps 8, 9, 10
 Phase 4: Steps 11, 12
Steps of simulation design

Problem Formulation
 Every study should begin with a problem statement.
 If statement is to be provided by policymakers, it is important that it is understood clearly
by the simulation designer / the analyst.
 If statement is to be developed by the analyst, it is important that the policymakers agree
with it.
 There are occasions where the problem statement is reformulated as the study progresses.
Steps of simulation design

Setting of objectives and overall project plan

 The objectives indicate the questions to be answered by the simulation.
 At this point, it must be decided whether simulation is really needed or that the objectives
can be met easily without simulation.
 In case it is decided that simulation is to be used, the overall project plan must include a
statement of the alternative systems to be considered and of a method for evaluating the
effectiveness of those alternatives.
Steps of simulation design

Setting of objectives and overall project plan

 The overall project plan should also include:
 Number of people involved
 Cost of the simulation process
 Number of days required to accomplish each phase
 Results expected at the end of each stage
Steps of simulation design

Model Conceptualization
 Requires a wide range of skills:
 Ability to abstract out essential features of a problem
 Ability to select and modify basic assumptions that characterize the system
 Ability to enrich and elaborate the model until you get a useful approximation
 General guidelines:
 Start with the most simple model and add layers of complexity one by one
 Don’t make it too complex; just complex enough that it meets the objectives
 Involve the model user – their involvement will enhance the quality of and confidence in the
model
Steps of simulation design

Data collection
 The objectives of design indicate the kind of data to be collected
 Constant interplay between model conceptualization and data collection
Steps of simulation design

Model translation
 Most real-world systems result in models that require a great deal of information storage
and computation.
 The model must be translated into a computer program.
 You could write the model using a programming language [C++, Java, …] or
 You could write the model in a general purpose simulation software [MATLAB, Anylogic,
…] or
 You can use special purpose simulation softwares tailormade for each industry.
Steps of simulation design

Verification
 Verify if the computer program written in previous step is working correctly
 If the input parameters and logical structure of the model has been correctly replicated in
the program, verification is done.
 For the most part, common sense is used in this step i.e., no specialized software tools are
usually required to verify.
Steps of simulation design

Validation
 Validate the model by determining how accurately it is representing real-world system
 Achieved by iteratively calibrating the model until it attains the desired level of accuracy
Steps of simulation design

Experimental Design
 The alternatives that are to be simulated must be determined
 Usually determined by runs that have been completed and analyzed
 Decisions need to be made regarding:
 Length of initialization period
 Length of simulation runs
 Number of replications to be made of each run
Steps of simulation design

Production runs, analysis and more runs

 Production runs, and their subsequent analysis, are used to estimate measures of
performance for the system designs that are being simulated.
 Given the analysis of runs already completed, the analyst determines whether additional
runs are needed and what design those additional experiments should follow.
Steps of simulation design

Documentation and Reporting

 Program documentation and Progress documentation
 Program documentation:
 so that the model user can interact with the program easily
 so that the analyst(s) can reuse the program easily
 so that the analyst(s) can modify the program easily
Steps of simulation design

Documentation and Reporting

 Progress documentation:
 Written history of work done and decisions made
 Frequent reports (at least monthly) better so that issues can be caught early
 Small but frequent deliverables
 Clear and concise report
Steps of simulation design

Implementation
 Success of implementation depends on:
 how well the previous steps were carried out
 how thoroughly the analyst has involved the model user / decision maker in the entire process