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Hydrological Sciences Journal

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Snow and climate trends and their impact on


seasonal runoff and hydrological drought types in
selected mountain catchments in Central Europe

Andrea Blahušiaková, Milada Matoušková, Michal Jenicek, Ondřej Ledvinka,


Zdeněk Kliment, Jana Podolinská & Zora Snopková

To cite this article: Andrea Blahušiaková, Milada Matoušková, Michal Jenicek, Ondřej
Ledvinka, Zdeněk Kliment, Jana Podolinská & Zora Snopková (2020) Snow and climate trends
and their impact on seasonal runoff and hydrological drought types in selected mountain
catchments in Central Europe, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 65:12, 2083-2096, DOI:
10.1080/02626667.2020.1784900

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1784900

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HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
2020, VOL. 65, NO. 12, 2083–2096
https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1784900

Snow and climate trends and their impact on seasonal runoff and hydrological
drought types in selected mountain catchments in Central Europe
Andrea Blahušiaková a, Milada Matoušková a
, Michal Jenicek a
, Ondřej Ledvinka b
, Zdeněk Kliment a
,
Jana Podolinskác and Zora Snopkovád
a
Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czechia; bHydrology Database and Water Budget
Department, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, Czechia; cDepartment of Hydrological Service, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute,
Banská Bystrica, Slovakia; dDepartment of Climatological Service, Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Banská Bystrica, Slovakia

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY


This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate Received 28 May 2019
variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends Accepted 1 May 2020
in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified EDITOR
into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air A. Castellarin
temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted
in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at ASSOCIATE EDITOR
elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low O. Makarieva
air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below- KEYWORDS
average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an snow variability; snow cover
important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments. trends; climate variability;
low flows; drought types

1 Introduction
occurrence of hydrological drought (Jenicek et al. 2016),
Central Europe, located in the temperate zone, typically which is often defined as a period of streamflow deficit below
experiences seasonal changes in hydroclimatic variables. In selected threshold. Elevation plays a major role in snow accu­
the cold season, low air temperatures and snow accumulation mulation and snowmelt in large catchments (Kucerova and
occur in mountainous areas. These factors are very important Jenicek 2014). Vojtek et al. (2003) have demonstrated more
for water storage in catchments not only during winter but also pronounced decreasing trends in snow cover duration and
throughout the rest of the year, because snowmelt in mountain solid precipitation at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l.
catchments feeds rivers in lowlands in spring and summer, compared to other elevations, due to increasing mixed and
which is important during periods with little precipitation liquid precipitation at the expense of snowfall. Similar findings
(Van Loon 2015, Staudinger et al. 2017). However, a decrease have also been made by Martin and Durand (1998). At high
in seasonal snowpack has been observed in mountainous areas elevations, only slight or even no changes in snow cover have
of Europe and North America in the past several decades been observed, because air temperature remains below the
(Pellicciotti et al. 2010, Blahusiakova and Matouskova 2015, freezing point despite ongoing warming (Giorgi et al. 1997,
Knowles 2015, Jenicek et al. 2016, 2018, Marke et al. 2018). Vojtek et al. 2003, Knowles et al. 2006). Snow cover is expected
Changes in snowfall fraction, a ratio of snowfall to annual to dramatically decrease in the future at elevations of
precipitation, influence the timing of spring runoff, river ice 1500–2000 m (Gobiet et al. 2014).
jams, and late winter snow density (Huntington et al. 2004). Changes in snowpack significantly affect runoff, as
According to Knowles (2015), air temperature, especially in Berghuijs et al. (2014) have observed in the United States. In
combination with precipitation amounts and their trends, has catchments with high snowfall fraction, the runoff is generally
the largest effect on snow cover trends. In areas where the air higher compared to catchments with the same amount of
temperature is often close to the melting point, little changes in precipitation, but with lower snowfall fraction. The results by
air temperature might result in a large loss of snowpack. With Jenicek et al. (2016) indicated that snow water equivalent
an increase in air temperature by 1°C, the snowline rises by (SWE) influenced summer low flow mostly at elevations
about 150 m in temperate mountain regions (Beniston 2003). above 2000 m a.s.l. A reduction in SWE resulted in earlier low-
Several studies have assessed the influence of snowfall frac­ flow occurrence in some cases in years with below-average
tion on snow storages and total runoff (Huntington et al. 2004, SWE. Changes in air temperature and precipitation affect low-
Feng and Hu 2007, Sawicz et al. 2011, Jenicek et al. 2016). flow trends (Dierauer et al. 2018). In climates with seasonally
Future decrease in snowfall fraction could render catchments below-zero air temperatures and snow accumulation in winter,
at middle and high elevations more susceptible to the snow-related processes play a role in drought occurrence and

CONTACT Andrea Blahušiaková ablahusiak@gmail.com Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague,
Czechia
© 2020 IAHS
2084 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

intensity (Van Loon 2015). Therefore, it is important to sepa­ relatively warmer and wet winters in the west compared to
rate winter and summer low flows and droughts since both relatively colder and dry winters in the east of our study area.
types are controlled by a different mechanism (Floriancic et al.
2019). Winter low flows occur because most of the water is
stored in the snowpack and thus the runoff is low. In contrast, 2 Study areas
summer low flows emerge during long-term persistent dry Seven catchments in Central Europe were selected for this
periods when evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation. This study. Three of them (Allenbach, Dischma, and Sitter catch­
leads to a slow depletion of the soil reservoir, which results in ments) are located in the Swiss Alps, two catchments (Blanice
low streamflow values (Laaha 2002). and Vydra catchments) are located in the Šumava Mountains
The above studies show that there is still limited knowl­ (Bohemian Forest, Czechia), one (Mumlava catchment) is
edge of how changes in different snow-related signatures located in the Krkonoše Mountains (Giant Mountains,
interplay with summer low flows and how sensitive catch­ Czechia) and the last one (Hron catchment) is situated in the
ments are in different regions at different elevations. Nízke Tatry (Low Tatras, Slovakia) (Fig. 1; Table 1). Two
Therefore, the aim of this study was 1) to analyse inter- criteria were important for catchment selection: 1) near-
annual variations and trends in selected snow, climate, and natural conditions with no major human impact on runoff
low streamflow characteristics in the last 50 years, 2) to and 2) availability of long-term hydroclimatic data series.
relate the runoff changes to trends in climatic variables Since changes in snow storages are apparently closely related
including changes in snow depth and 3) to explore the low- to elevation, the selected climate stations were divided into
flow sensitivity of study catchments with respect to their three elevation classes: lower elevations below 1000 m a.s.l.
different elevation and climate regime. (Harrachov and Husinec stations), middle elevations from
As Kreibich et al. (2019) pointed out, there is a lack of 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. (Adelboden, Davos, Churáňov, and
reliable, consistent drought impact and vulnerability data, Telgárt stations), and higher elevations above 1500 m a.s.l.
and our current knowledge of drivers relative to drought (Säntis and Weissfluhjoch stations).
impacts and causes of drought vulnerability is still very limited.
Our study adds to earlier studies by focusing on the combined
effect of winter snow storages and precipitation in warm sea­ 3 Data and methods
son and its varying importance for low streamflow values in
3.1 Data
individual catchments. Exploring this combined effect is par­
ticularly important in humid regions where annual precipita­ Data were obtained from the Slovak Hydrometeorological
tion is almost uniformly distributed over the year. In our Institute (SHMI), from the Czech Hydrometeorological
study, we benefit from long-term daily data which represent Institute (CHMI), the Federal Office of Meteorology and
a variety of climate conditions across Central Europe, such as Climatology (MeteoSwiss) and from the Federal Office for

Figure 1. Location of the study catchments. Catchment number 1 is used for the highest catchment (mean catchment elevation) and 7 refers to the lowest catchment.
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2085

the Environment (FOEN). The data included mean daily dis­

Qa: mean annual discharge (1966–2012); Rda: mean annual runoff depth (1966–2012); Ta: mean annual air temperature (1966–2012); Pa: mean annual precipitation at the climate station (1966–2012); Sdmaxa: maximum mean annual
Sdmaxa
(cm)
85
222
54
481
69
36
73
8
charge, mean daily air temperature, daily precipitation, and
daily snow depth (Table 2). Although gridded air temperature

Pa (mm)
and precipitation products are available for Switzerland, we

1050
1331
1345
2535
1112
855
1315
652
used only station data since gridded products are not available
for study areas located in Czechia and Slovakia. Data were
Ta (°C)

3.4
−2.1
5.8
−1.3
4.6
5.1
5.6
7.5
controlled for quality and homogeneity.
Data from 1966 to 2012 from each station were analysed in
Elevation of climate

this study. To analyse temporal changes, the period was split


station (m a.s.l.)

into two time series of nearly equal length, 1966–1988 and


1594
2691
1320
2502
1118
901
675
536
1989–2012. The found changes were analysed using three
different timescales: annual, seasonal and monthly. The analy­
sis using different timescales enabled to explore potential
trends in different temporal resolutions. For example, a trend
Weissfluhjoch

of a specific variable was not detected at an annual level,


Climate

Adelboden
station

Harrachov

although some change occurred only in a specific month.


Churáňov

Husinec
Telgárt
Davos

Säntis

The annual timescale was defined for a hydrological year, start­


ing on 1 November and ending on 31 October. The seasonal
timescale covered the November to April season
Glacier

(1 November – 30 April, hereafter referred also to as XI–IV).


(%)
0.7

0
0
0
0
0
0

For all three timescales, discharge (m3 s−1), air temperature


(°C), precipitation (mm), and snow cover depth (cm) were
Rda (mm)

calculated as mean values (sums for precipitation).


1241

1314
1492
1204
494
1219
343

Additionally, long-term (1966–2012) mean annual discharge,


air temperature, precipitation amount, and snow cover depth
(m3 s−1)

were calculated.
1.70

1.21
3.51
3.44
1.32
1.98
0.93
Qa

3.2 Methods
Elevation of gauging
station (m a.s.l.)

3.2.1 Snow-related variables


1668

1297
769
973
733
581
743

The mean snow depth (Sd) was calculated for days with snow
cover higher than or equal to 1 cm which was not interrupted
for more than five consecutive days. The snow cover duration
(Sddur) was defined as a duration between the first and the
slope (°)

last day with snow cover. Depending on the elevation of the


Mean

5.9

6.7
26.2

24.6

15.3
11.8
22

individual meteorological station, the snow cover lasted from


November to April at the Husinec, Telgárt, and Harrachov
range (m a.s.l.)

stations, from October to May at Adelboden, Davos, and


1668–3145

1297–2762
769–2502
973–1370
733–1946
581–1435
743–1236
Elevation

Churáňov, and from September to August at Weissfluhjoch


Table 1. Selected characteristics of the study catchments and climate stations.

and Säntis. The maximum depth of snow cover (Sdmax) for


each month and year and the day of the year of its occurrence
(Sdmaxd) were also evaluated (Table 2). In case of more days
elevation (m a.s.l.)
Mean catchment

with the same value of Sdmax occurred in 1 year, we used the


2372

1847
1254
1147
1060
972
898

latest one to capture the late winter maximum before spring


snowmelt.
Two different variables describing the proportion of solid
and liquid precipitation were used in this study. The first
Area (km2)

variable, the snowfall fraction (Sf), is the ratio of snowfall to


89.8
83.7
51.3
85.5
43

29
74

total precipitation (annual, seasonal, monthly). Snowfall frac­


tion values close to 1 indicate a larger amount of precipitation
Davos, Kriegsmatte

snow cover depth (1966–2012).

falling as snow (Jenicek et al. 2016). The second variable, the


Gauging station

Janov-Harrachov

snowfall day fraction (Rsd), was defined as the number of days


Blanický Mlýn
Adelboden

with snowfall divided by the total number of days with pre­


Appenzell
Modrava

cipitation (wet days).


Zlatno

Since the precipitation time series do not usually include


the information on whether the precipitation falls as snow or
Catchment

Allenbach

Mumlava

rain, we used a threshold air temperature 1°C to separate


Dischma

Blanice
Vydra
Sitter

Hron

between snow and rain. The selected threshold air temperature


is widely used by other studies (Dai 2008, Berghuijs et al. 2014,
2086 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

Table 2. Climate and hydrological variables.


Climate variable Description Hydrological variable Description
Ta Long-term mean annual air temperature (°C) Qmin Minimum discharge (m3 s−1)
Pa Long-term annual precipitation at the climate station (mm) Q90 Discharge with 90% exceedance probability
(derived from flow duration curve) (m3 s−1)
Sd Snow cover depth (cm)
Sda Long-term mean snow cover depth (cm)
Sddur Snow cover duration from the first to the last day with snow cover (d)
Sdmax Maximum snow cover depth (cm)
Sdmaxa Maximum long-term mean annual snow cover depth (cm)
Sdmaxd Average day of year of the Sdmax (d)
Sf Snowfall fraction, a ratio of snowfall to total precipitation (-)
Rsd Snowfall day fraction, a ratio of the number of snowfall days to the
number of days with precipitation (-)

Jenicek et al. 2016). We tested thresholds of 0°C and 0.5°C next and Slovak catchments (Blanice, Mumlava, Vydra, and Hron
to 1°C and analysed their impact on resulting trends. catchments) were assessed for the III–V (1 March to 31 May)
The use of one air temperature threshold is an acceptable period. The reasons for different periods were mainly different
simplification to distinguish between snow and rain which catchment elevations and thus different seasonalities of spring
provides comparable results in more complex approaches, runoff caused by snowmelt.
such as the application of two threshold air temperatures
together with using some transition function for snow and 3.2.3 Statistical analysis
rain between these two thresholds (Dai 2008). The Pearson correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the
correlation between hydrological and climate characteristics
3.2.2 Streamflow variables and between Sf and Rsd. A modified Mann–Kendall trend test
Several variables were selected to describe streamflow condi­ (MK test) was used to analyse the data for the presence of
tions in our study areas. The minimum monthly and annual consistently increasing or decreasing trends (Mann 1945,
discharges (Qmin) represent an extreme low flow. The level at Kendall and Gibbons 1990, Yue et al. 2002a). Specifically,
which the streamflow is exceeded 90% of the time (Q90, which monotonic trends were searched using the trend-free pre-
was derived from the flow duration curve) represents general whitening technique which employs Sen’s slope estimator
low flow (Table 2). determines the strength of autocorrelation (AR(1) process)
A hydrological drought was defined as a streamflow deficit and applies the Kendall test for significance to the pre-
event during which discharges are below a given threshold, whitened series (Yue et al. 2002b). A trend significance level
which was Q90 in this analysis. By using this threshold, the of 0.05 was set for all statistical analyses. In this study, the
following parameters were calculated: 1) the duration of the modified MK test p value was calculated based on the 47-year
drought event in days, 2) the deficit volume of the drought -long time series (1966–2012) to determine the statistical
event in m3, 3) days below threshold, 4) minimum discharge, significance of trends. The magnitude of changes in hydro­
and 5) the date of minimum discharge. The “find_droughts” climatic parameters and snowfall fraction was expressed by
function implemented in the R package “lfstat” (Koffler et al. Sen’s slope over the whole period. Two sub-periods (i.e.
2016) was used when deriving the drought variables from the 1966–1988 and 1989–2012) were selected to determine dif­
monitored time series (see also Gustard and Demuth 2009). ferences in individual indicators calculated for these two sub-
Dry periods below the selected threshold (Q90) that lasted for periods.
more than 40 days were then selected. This 40-day threshold
was selected to capture a variety of drought situations covering
both those caused by high air temperatures and low precipita­ 4 Results
tion in summer and those caused by lack of snow storages due
4.1 Changes in snow conditions
to high air temperatures and/or low precipitation during
winter. 4.1.1 Long-term changes in snow cover
The observed drought periods were divided into nine types Significant declines in Sd occurred mainly at middle elevations
with respect to air temperature and precipitation (based on (Fig. 2). Specifically, mean annual Sd significantly decreased at
Van Loon 2015; here a slightly modified version of this classi­ the Adelboden station, mostly due to the decrease from
fication was adopted). Nine periods with the greatest deficit January to March and partly in April. January was the month
volume were selected. We determined mainly 1) elevations at with the largest decrease for the Telgárt station, April for the
which most of these hydrological droughts occurred and 2) the Davos and Churáňov stations and June and July for the
extent to which snow affected drought deficit. We determined Weissfluhjoch station. At lower elevations (Husinec station),
the correlation between climatic and hydrological parameters the snow depth declined mostly in April.
on a sample of 10 dry periods for each drought type. Trends similar to those in Sd were found also for Sdmax,
Hydrological parameters of the Swiss catchments (Allenbach, which decreased mostly at middle elevations (Figs. 2 and 3).
Dischma, and Sitter catchments) were assessed for the V–VIII On annual and seasonal timescales, Sdmax declined significantly
(1 May to 31 August) period, and the parameters of the Czech at the Adelboden station. This decrease was detected in almost
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2087

Figure 2. Annual, seasonal and monthly Mann-Kendall trends for discharge, air temperature, precipitation and selected snow variables for the study period 1966–2012;
monthly, seasonal (XI–IV), and annual values; white used for no significant trends or no snow cover (in case of snow variables). Positive values indicate an increasing
trend and negative values indicate a decreasing trend. Catchments are sorted by elevation from highest to lowest.

all winter and spring months (January to May). At the Telgárt (Adelboden, Davos, Säntis, and Weissfluhjoch stations), con­
station, the largest decrease in Sdmax was detected in January tinuous snow cover was shortened by 1 month during our
and at the Churáňov and Davos stations in April and May. At study period. At the Davos station, the onset of continuous
the Davos and Adelboden stations, the trends in Sdmax were snow cover has shifted forward by a month. We did not detect
also detected in November. For Weissfluhjoch, Sdmax any significant changes at lower elevations. Sdmaxd occurred
decreased mostly from May to August. earlier in most of the stations in the period 1989–2012 com­
The shortening of the Sddur is also an important factor pared to the period 1966–1988. The shift was largest at the
affecting Sd trends (Fig. 4). At middle and higher elevations Husinec (20 days) and Adelboden (19 days) stations, and
2088 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

Figure 3. Relationship between air temperature, T, precipitation amount, P, and maximum snow cover depth, Sdmax, in the periods 1966–88 and 1989–2012.

smallest at the Weissfluhjoch (4 days) and Churáňov (7 days) although the decreasing trend was detected for the late
stations. In contrast, Sdmaxd occurred a few days later at the spring and summer months due to the shifting snowmelt
Telgárt, Harrachov, and Säntis stations (up to 9 days in Säntis). times.
The reason for this later maximum was not investigated in this The Sf and Rsd also declined on monthly timescales. At
study. For Säntis, it might be connected to an increase in middle elevations, the snowfall fraction was highest in
precipitation in February (as indicated in Fig. 2). February followed by January (not shown). Sf and Rsd
decreased mostly in March and April, especially at Telgárt
4.1.2 Changes in snowfall fraction and snowfall day and Adelboden (Fig. 5). The main reason is increasing air
fraction temperature for the XI–IV season by 0.9°C during the
The trend analysis confirmed decreases in S f and R sd at whole study period. At the Adelboden station, there was
all stations (Fig. 2). These trends are comparable and do also a significant decrease in precipitation in the XI–IV
not differ significantly. Notable decreases occurred on season. At stations located at higher elevations, Sf and Rsd
both annual and seasonal timescales at all stations with values were the highest in January, February, and
the exception of Husinec. On a seasonal timescale, the December. Decreases began to occur in May, with the
largest decrease in S f (from 12% to 26%) was detected at greatest ones at the Säntis station (Fig. 5). At these eleva­
middle elevations (mostly at Adelboden), whereas at tions, air temperature had the smallest impact on the
lower elevations the decrease in S f was less evident decline in Sf and Rsd, even though it rose substantially
(from 11% to 20%). At the highest elevations, no trends here (by 1.2°C in the XI–IV season). At lower stations,
were detected for the cold period (decrease by 0.4–1%), the proportion of snow was highest in January and then
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2089

Figure 4. Shifts in the beginning and end of snow cover (Sddur) in the periods 1966–1988 and 1989–2012. Climate stations are sorted by elevation from highest to
lowest.

Figure 5. Comparison of snowfall fraction Sf and snowfall days fraction Rsd for air temperature thresholds 1°C, 0.5°C, and 0°C in 1966–2012 in April for Telgárt, in March
for Adelboden, and in May for Säntis.

February. The largest significant decreases in Sf and Rsd To make the results more robust, several threshold
occurred in April and March. This was caused by increas­ values differentiating between snow and rain were tested.
ing air temperature (by 0.9°C in the XI–IV season) and at The change in the threshold value from 0°C to 1°C resulted
Harrachov by significantly decreasing precipitation in in more frequent and stronger decreasing Sf and Rsd trends,
April. The correlation between Sf on one hand and climatic especially at middle and lower elevations (Fig. 5). At higher
parameters on the other is shown in Fig. 6. elevations, the situation was reversed; the strength and
2090 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

Figure 6. Correlation of snowfall fraction, Sf, with hydroclimatic parameters (air temperature, T; precipitation amount, P; snow cover depth, Sd; maximum snow cover
depth, Sdmax; discharge, Q; minimum discharge, Qmin; and discharge with 90% exceedance probability, Q90) for months, the XI–IV season and years. Climate stations are
sorted by elevation from highest to lowest.

frequency of decreasing trends often increased with IV) caused more frequent and earlier snowmelt, which
decreasing threshold air temperature, especially at the resulted in the discharge increase. This is most clearly mani­
Säntis station. Different threshold values resulted in some­ fested at middle and lower elevations. The situation changes,
what larger differences in Rsd. Interestingly, the differences however, in late spring, when snow at middle and higher
in threshold values have been negligible at the Telgárt elevations melts during March and April and Sf and Rsd
station since roughly the mid-1990s. decrease significantly. There is a significant correlation
between these snow characteristics and discharge. Increasing
air temperature, and at some stations (Adelboden, Churáňov,
4.2 Impacts of changes in snow cover on runoff and
Harrachov) decreasing precipitation as well, contribute to the
hydrological drought occurrence
significant decrease in discharge from May onward.
4.2.1 Assessing runoff trends Figure 2 depicts a similar trend in minimum discharge
On an annual timescale, no significant runoff trends were values (Qmin and Q90). On an annual timescale, Qmin increased
detected. On seasonal timescales, discharges increased signifi­ at most stations, but significantly only in the Dischma and
cantly, especially in the Allenbach and Mumlava catchments Mumlava catchments for Qmin, and the Dischma, Mumlava,
(by 20–37%, Fig. 2). Correlation was examined between dis­ and Allenbach catchments for Q90. Similar trends were
charge and precipitation and between Sf (Rsd) values and air detected on seasonal timescales. In the winter period (XII–
temperature (Fig. 6). As shown in Section 4.1, changes in II), minimum discharges increased mostly at middle and lower
precipitation and snowfall fraction were most significant at elevations (with the largest increase in the Allenbach and
the Adelboden station. Higher seasonal air temperature (XI– Mumlava catchments). Higher air temperatures and snow
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2091

Figure 7. Dry periods and their typology in study catchments in 1966–2012 (based on methodology published in Van Loon 2015).

changes (decreases in Sf and Rsd) played a role here. In spring combined with a precipitation deficit (cold snow season drought
(III–V), especially in April and May, Qmin decreased at most B), runoff from spring snowmelt was reduced. This type of
stations. In summer (VI–VIII), Qmin decreased in all catch­ hydrological drought was observed in the Hron, Dischma, and
ments, but significantly only at middle and higher elevations. Sitter catchments. When there are insufficient precipitation and
These trends continued to autumn (IX–XI). higher air temperatures in early winter, a delay in the formation of
continuous snow cover can be expected (warm snow season
4.2.2 Hydrological drought occurrence and drought types drought A). This type of hydrological drought also has
Focusing on the trends in air temperature and precipitation, a negative impact on water supplies in the catchment, and it
we evaluated a total of 65 dry periods lasting more than 40 days was detected in the Hron (Fig. 8) and Sitter catchments. The
that occurred in our study catchments (Fig. 7). Seasonal water negative effects of higher air temperatures and insufficient pre­
deficits occur in the Allenbach and Hron catchments mainly cipitation resulted in earlier snowmelt in spring (warm snow
during winter time (December to February); in the Vydra season drought B), which could be a potential signal of future
catchment from January to March; in the Dischma, Sitter, water deficits in the catchment. This was most clearly visible in
and Mumlava catchments from late winter to early spring the Dischma catchment. For example, the winter season of 2000/
(February to March); in the Mumlava catchment also in 2001 was characterized by high air temperatures and low preci­
August; and in the Blanice catchment in August and pitation. These conditions resulted in a water deficit exceeding
September. The highest number of dry periods occurred at one million m3 and the dry period lasted 140 days (Fig. 8).
middle and higher elevations (Hron, Allenbach, and Dischma). Water deficits in the second group of catchments are also
From a regional perspective, similar behaviour in hydrological associated with increasing air temperatures and insufficient
drought trends was detected in the Hron, Vydra, Dischma, and precipitation, but often in summer and autumn. Insufficient
Sitter catchments (first group) and in the Mumlava, Blanice, and precipitation has a negative impact on water supplies mainly
Allenbach catchments (second group). In the first group of the at lower elevations, specifically in the Blanice and Mumlava
catchments, the hydrological droughts were most frequently catchments. Dry periods occurred most often in summer in
caused by low air temperatures in the cold season (winter those catchments (typical rainfall drought) and in autumn,
droughts). Therefore, the precipitation did not reach streams for when insufficient precipitation and higher air temperatures
an extended period of time because precipitation occurred in the had an impact on the situation in early winter (rainfall and
form of snow (cold snow season drought A). This type of hydro­ snowfall drought). The Allenbach catchment was strongly
logical drought occurred most frequently in the Vydra (Fig. 8) affected by several melting periods during winter that sub­
and Sitter catchments. When low winter air temperatures were sequently affected Sd. When these factors are combined with
2092 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

Figure 8. Typical evolution of dry periods for individual drought types. Solid lines represent the time series of each variable (mean monthly air temperature,
precipitation, snowfall fraction, snow cover depth, and discharge); and dotted lines represent long-term means (1966–2012). The red line indicates the duration of the
dry period.

insufficient precipitation (warm & cold snow season drought effect on low flows in the XI–IV and V–X seasons during this
A), a long-lasting water deficit occurs. Of all the studied type of hydrological drought.
catchments, the Allenbach catchment experienced the long­ The right side of Fig. 9 shows the significant correlation
est average dry periods, which often followed each other in between discharge and precipitation immediately before and
quick succession. One example is the hydrological drought during dry periods as well as in the subsequent V–X warm
of winter 2004/2005 that lasted 125 days (Fig. 8). Of the period. The direct influence of Sd and Sdmax on discharge was
nine largest water deficits observed, only this one was caused found in the following hydrological drought types: rainfall and
by an insufficient snowpack during the previous winter. The snowfall drought, warm snow season drought A, and cold
insufficient snowpack combined with below-average precipi­ snow season drought A and B. Less snowpack or a delay in
tation from autumn to spring and higher autumn air tem­ the formation of snow cover is significantly affected by both
peratures caused a water deficit of 1 152 403 m3, which precipitation and air temperature. Qmin and Q90 have the
represents 40 mm of runoff depth. The Allenbach catchment greatest significant correlation with climatic parameters dur­
is highly influenced by declining Sd. Here, the continuous ing drought type warm & cold snow season drought A.
snow cover melted a month earlier; Sdmax has occurred
19 days earlier and Sf and Rsd values have declined signifi­
cantly. Insufficient snowfall in recent decades has had 5 Discussion
a negative effect on parameters in summer, as confirmed
5.1 Changes in snow conditions
by the significant decrease in Qmin.
The left side of Fig. 9 demonstrates that the highest signifi­ 5.1.1 Long-term changes in snow cover
cant correlation between the snowpack in the previous winter Our results showing changes in Sd at eight climate stations
season and discharge trends occurs in the following hydrolo­ in Central Europe confirmed the earlier findings from other
gical drought types: warm snow season drought A, cold snow mountainous areas in the Northern Hemisphere which con­
season drought A and B, and warm & cold snow season cluded that the amount and duration of snow cover are
drought A. Warm & cold snow season drought A and rainfall decreasing (Vojtek et al. 2003, Pellicciotti et al. 2010,
and snowfall drought types have the greatest impact on Qmin Knowles 2015). More specifically we found that the largest
and Q90. It was already confirmed in the findings from the decreases in Sd and Sdmax occurred mostly at middle eleva­
Allenbach catchment that the greatest correlation between the tions, which is in accordance with the findings of other
snowpack in the previous winter season and subsequent dis­ studies from Slovakia, France, and Switzerland (Martin and
charge trends occurs during drought type warm & cold snow Durand 1998, Vojtek et al. 2003, Pellicciotti et al. 2010).
season drought A. Air temperature had the most significant Vojtek et al. (2003) have discovered less snowfall and
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2093

Figure 9. Correlation of hydrological (discharge, Q; minimum discharge, Qmin; and discharge with 90% exceedance probability, Q90) and climatic (snow cover depth, Sd;
maximum snow cover depth, Sdmax; precipitation amount, P; and air temperature, T) variables in the cold (XI–IV) and warm (V–X) half-year that preceded the dry period
(left) and the cold (XI–IV) and warm (V–X) half-year during and after the dry period (right).

changes in the snow cover duration at elevations below Therefore, any potential changes in snowfall during extreme
1000–1500 m a.s.l. in Slovakia due to higher air tempera­ precipitation events (both high and low) would be reflected
tures. The critical impact of air temperature on the changes by this parameter (Lute et al. 2015). In contrast, Rsd does
in Sd was also observed at the middle elevation catchments not account for absolute amounts of precipitation as it
in our study. Higher air temperatures had a negative influ­ reflects only changes in the number of wet days and the
ence on Sf and Rsd. Furthermore, there is generally less proportion of days with solid or days with liquid precipita­
precipitation in the XI–IV period, which was most notice­ tion (Sawicz et al. 2011, Serquet et al. 2011). Therefore, it is
able at the Adelboden station, where, over the last 50 years, reasonable to use both variables for the assessment, although
the largest significant declines in Sd occurred (Figs. 2 and 3). we did not detect any significant differences in trends for
Knowles (2015) made similar findings in the central parts of these two variables. In general, it is very important to test
the United States. several snow-related indicators for trend detection rather
Labudova et al. (2015) discussed the acceleration of than one selected indicator since the interplay of individual
warming at higher elevations of Slovakia (above 2000 m climate inputs (snow, air temperature) might result in
a.s.l.) in comparison with low elevations in the 21st cen­ a large variety of outputs (runoff).
tury. In Central Europe, the largest air temperature Our findings related to the decrease in annual Sf and Rsd
increase occurred at highest elevations (Weissfluhjoch and (Fig. 2) in Central Europe correspond to the findings of
Säntis in our study), as also shown by Giorgi et al. (1997) other studies in Slovakia, the United States, Czechia, and
in the Alps and by Knowles et al. (2006) in the western Switzerland (Vojtek et al. 2003, Huntington et al. 2004,
United States. However, this air temperature increase at Feng and Hu 2007, Brazdil et al. 2009, Jenicek et al.
high elevations did not affect snow storages as dramatically 2016). On annual and seasonal timescales, air temperature
as it occurred at middle elevations, due to the fact that the has the greatest impact on the Sf and Rsd decrease. Higher
air temperature at highest elevations is still below the air temperature significantly influences snowmelt (Ledvinka
freezing point during winter despite warming. 2015), which occurs earlier, especially at middle and higher
elevations (Adelboden, Davos, Säntis, and Weissfluhjoch;
5.1.2 Changes in snowfall fraction and snowfall day Fig. 4). Berghuijs et al. (2014) reported from the contigu­
fraction ous United States that in catchments with high snowfall
To assess the proportion of solid and liquid precipitation, we fraction, with an increase in air temperature by 2.4°C in
used two different variables, the snowfall fraction Sf and the 1948–2001, the average annual snowfall fraction decreases
snowfall day fraction Rsd. Sf is frequently used variable by 40%. In the same set of catchments, an increase in air
which reflects the amount of precipitation (Huntington temperature by 4°C resulted in a decrease in snowfall frac­
et al. 2004, Feng and Hu 2007, Jenicek et al. 2016). tion by 60%. Comparing the results from the United States
2094 A. BLAHUŠIAKOVÁ ET AL.

with our results from Central European catchments reveals a specific catchment. Therefore, the results interpretation
that especially since the late 1980s the rising average annual based on elevation classes is rather limited in our study. For
air temperature has had the greatest negative impact on Sf example, in a catchment with a relatively low mean catchment
at middle elevations (Telgárt, Churáňov, Adelboden, and elevation, but with a large elevation range covering the eleva­
Davos; Fig. 5). An increase in air temperature by 0.8°C tions above 2000 m a.s.l, the late snowmelt in these highest
caused a decrease in Sf on average by 22%. At elevations parts (June, July) affects low flows in the low elevation parts of
from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l, the decline in Sf in the XI–IV the catchment for a longer period than in a catchment with the
season was even more dramatic (Fig. 2); an air temperature same mean elevation but with a smaller elevation range.
increase by 0.9°C caused a decrease in Sf on average Potential uncertainties in results interpretation also stem
by 38%. from the fact that changes in snow and meteorological vari­
When studying the impact of snowfall fraction, choosing an ables were assessed based on station data rather than catch­
appropriate threshold air temperature is important. For ment means. Therefore, the linkage between trends in snow
Europe, the frequently used value is 1°C which we used in and streamflow variables might be affected by the fact that the
our study as well. This threshold air temperature was applied individual climate station does not represent the respective
by Dai (2008), Berghuijs et al. (2014), and Jenicek et al. (2016). catchment well enough.
We tested values of 0°C, 0.5°C, and 1°C to compare the
impacts of different threshold air temperatures on snowfall
5.2.2 Hydrological drought occurrence and drought types
fraction at different elevations (see Fig. 5).
As previous studies have demonstrated, insufficient snowmelt
in spring may result in hydrological drought in the following
season (Feng and Hu 2007, Van Loon 2015, Jenicek et al.
5.2 Impacts of changes in snow cover on runoff and 2016). Based on our results, the Allenbach catchment was
hydrological drought occurrence affected by frequently occurring melting periods during winter
which caused the largest Sd decrease among all study catch­
5.2.1 Assessing runoff trends
ments. The warm & cold snow season drought A and B are the
Precipitation totals and precipitation phase are two deter­
most frequent types in this catchment. The former is the only
mining factors influencing runoff (Berghuijs et al. 2014,
one of the nine evaluated types of hydrological drought which
Dierauer et al. 2018). Snowfall fraction is mostly affected
was caused by an insufficient snowpack during the previous
by air temperature. Higher air temperature in the XI–IV
winter (Figs. 8 and 9). Dierauer et al. (2018) also found
season caused more frequent and earlier snowmelt, which
a similar correlation between climatic conditions in winter
resulted in increased discharge in our study catchments,
and summer low flows. They also found that warm and dry
especially during winter. This was clearly manifested at mid­
winters correspond to significantly lower runoff and signifi­
dle and lower elevation catchments in our study. Similar
cantly longer, more severe summer low flows than cool and
findings have been made by Birsan et al. (2005) and
dry winters. Mountainous regions, where this drought type
Pellicciotti et al. (2010) in Switzerland, by Fiala (2008),
predominates (e.g. in the Allenbach catchment), seem to be
Kliment et al. (2011) and Langhammer et al. (2015) in
the most affected by regional warming. For the future, it
Czechia, and Hlavcova and Cunderlik (1998) and Roncak
implies that water deficits might not occur in cold months
et al. (2019) in Slovakia. In spring, snow at middle and
only, but they will become more frequent in warmer months as
higher elevations melted during March and April in our
well, as indicated by respective decreasing trends in our study.
study period, and Sf and Rsd decreased significantly (Fig.
2). Higher air temperatures and snow changes (decreases in
Sf and Rsd) affected the spring flows, which was confirmed by
6 Conclusion
a significant correlation between the decrease in Sf and Rsd
and the increase in discharge in this season. Fiala et al. This study analysed inter-annual variations and trends in
(2010), Kliment et al. (2011) and Berghuijs et al. (2014) selected snow, climate, and low streamflow characteristics in
came to a similar conclusion. During late spring, mean selected mountain catchments in Central Europe from 1966 to
monthly discharges and minimum discharges declined, 2012. Specifically, we were focused on how changes in snow
which continued throughout summer until autumn. Spring cover affected changes in summer runoff, and we explored the
and summer minimum discharges have also decreased in runoff sensitivity of the study catchments regarding their dif­
other regions as reported, e.g., by Birsan et al. (2005), ferent elevations and climate regimes. The main conclusions
Kliment et al. (2011), Kormann et al. (2015), Langhammer are the following:
et al. (2015), Jenicek et al. (2016), Dierauer et al. (2018), The results from the study catchments showed a significant
Piniewski et al. (2018). increase in air temperature by 0.7–1.3°C, decrease in snowfall
Most of the results in this study related to catchment runoff fraction by 0.4% at highest elevations, by 26% at middle eleva­
were assessed using elevation classes as defined in Section 2. tions and by 20% at lowest elevations and decrease in snow
The study catchments were distributed into the classes accord­ depth by 1% (highest elevations) to 63% (lowest elevations). In
ing to the mean catchment elevation. However, the mean some cases, changes in precipitation in the cold season were
catchment elevation cannot fully describe the hypsography of detected as well; the largest increase by 33% at the Säntis
individual catchments and thus the response of snow storages station and the largest decrease by 16% at the Adelboden
to changes in air temperature at different elevation zones of station.
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL 2095

In years with relatively high air temperatures during the Ondřej Ledvinka http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0203-7064
cold season, there was a lower snow depth and more frequent Zdeněk Kliment http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8613-0241
and earlier snowmelt which caused the increase in winter
discharges ranging from 1% in the Blanice and Sitter catch­
ments to 36% in the Mumlava catchment. Furthermore, snow­ References
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