In this document I have gathered the relationships I have found interesting when I have been looking closer at

the data. The data sources are: data on individuals in Ravdol district in Finnmark gathered by NINA since 2002;
public statistics on claimed losses and summer density from the same district; satellite data on snow and
temperature from SeNorge; and satellite data on primary production. All the plots here show yearly mean
values, as far as I understand there is no hierarchical structure in the data, and mixed models are not needed
for this analysis.

From these first plots I have started sketching a conceptual model, of which there is suggested relationships
between the variables. From that I will start looking at an SEM model, or a path model.

At the end of the document there is a list explaining the different variables used in the plots.

1.Time series plots

Body mass timeseries
The plots in fig. 1 show development of body mass over time. It shows how body mass and body mass
development, were overlapping until 2006 and how after that, the reindeer are heavier in the fall and lighter in
the spring. The plots also show how the loss in body mass during winter is increasing, and correspondingly how
the gain in body mass over summer is increasing. Fig.2 shows the correlations to time and how these changes
show statistical significance. Fig. 2 also shows how calf body mass does not show any trend over time.

.
Figure 1 Mean body mass in spring and fall and body mass development over summer and winter per year

Figure 2 Scatterplots showing significance of mean body mass changes over time.
Production timeseries
Calf production, shown as success in fig.3, is decreasing over time, while gestation shows no trend over time.
Previous studies have shown how females allocate resources to their own growth and not in reproduction
when conditions are harder or the females are smaller. Therefore the lower spring weights and higher fall
weights could be understood in light of the trend of lower success rates

Figure 3 Mean Success and gestation rates over time

Body mass development for lactating and barren females

Figure 4 shows how fall body mass for lactating and barren females does not differ, but the gain in body mass
over summer is greater for barren females than lactating. This indicates that barren females are smaller in
spring and allocate resources to their own growth.

Figure 4 Mean fall body mass for lactating vs barren females and mean body mass development over summer for lactating
vs barren females.

Figure 5 shows how spring body mass is greater for lactating than barren females but the loss in body mass
over winter does not differ. This may indicate that females that are smaller in spring do not invest in
reproduction, but rather in their own growth.

Figure 5 Mean spring body mass for lactating vs barren females and means body mass development over winter for
lactating vs barren females.
Claimed losses
Figure 6 shows how claimed losses of reindeer increase over time. The data are from public statistics for the
Ravdol district.

Figure 6 Scatterplots showing total claimed losses, claimed losses of calves, claimed losses of females, claimed losses to lynx
and claimed losses to wolverine per year.

2. Correlation plots
The following plots show correlations between body mass, success and gestation rates and meteorological data
for snow depth and temperature and phenological data derived from satellites

Total snow depth as predictor for body mass

Figure 7 shows how total snow depth, measured as snow water equivalents, may affect body mass and success
rates in spring. Fall body mass and calf body mass show no correlation to snow depth, but success rate and
spring body mass show a negative correlation. Plots for snow depth in April (not shown here) reveal very
similar trends.

In the timeseries plot the left it is shown how success rates and spring body masses are lower in years with a
higher mean snow depth, and vice versa.

Figure 7 Mean total snow depth as a predictor from mean fall body mass for females, mean spring body mass for females,
mean success rate and mean calf body mass per year.

Total snow depth as predictor for claimed losses

Figure 8 shows how total snow depth may predict claimed losses of calves and losses to wolverine.
This could possibly be explained by the lower body masses (as an indicator of poor condition) in a
year with a larger snow depth.

Figure 8 Correlation between total snow depth and claimed losses.

Density as predictor for body mass and production

Figure 9 shows no relationship between density of reindeer in their summer grazing areas, body mass or
production. But since winter conditions seem be affecting spring body mass as well as success and losses
(shown later) it would be interesting to have closer look at the impact of winter density.

Figure 9 Correlations between density of reindeer (from public statistics) and measurements of body mass and production

Max temperature November

The plots in figure 10 show a relationship between the highest temperature measures in November and spring
body mass and success the following year. Max temperature in October or December showed no relationship
and neither did mean temperatures for any of the three months.

Figure 10 Plots showing relationship between max temp in November and mean body mass and success the following
spring.

Phenology, body mass and success rate

In figure 11 only the significant relationships between NDVI data and mean values for body mass and success
are shown. The different measurements on greenness are strongly correlated (see fig 15). Fall body mass might
be lower in years with higher NDVI, following a higher success rate and allocation to reproduction those years.

Figure 11 Scatterplots showing relationships between satellite data on primary production and yearly mean values for body
mass and success.

Spring body mass

Figure 12 shows the relationships between mean spring body mass, success rate, calf body mass and gestation rate. Calf
fall body mass and fall body mass seem to be independent of spring body mass, but successrate and weight development
during summer are correlated to spring body mass. Gestation rate does not seem to follow a linear relationship, but could
rather have treasure values; where the females are not pregnant below a lower threshold, and for body masses above a
higher threshold a constant high gestation rate can be observed.

Figure 12 Relationships between mean spring body mass, success rate, calf body mass and gestation rate

The claimed losses show a correlation to spring body mass, and the lower the spring body mass is the higher are the losses.
No correlation was found between fall body mass and losses, or calf body mass and losses

Figure 13 Relationship between claimed losses and mean spring body mass

Success
In years with high success the calves are heavier, and the claimed losses are lower. The lower rate of claimed
losses in years with higher success, might be explained by animals in better condition (with a higher spring body
mass) in those years. In years with a higher success rate the females also gain less weight over summer and are
lighter in the fall as expected as resources are allocated to reproduction over summer

Figure 14 Plots showing the relationship between successrate, calf fall body mass, weight development over summer, fall
body mass and claimed losses.

Correlations phenology
Figure 15 show correlations between variables measuring primary production during summer.

Figure 15 Correlations between different variables measuring phenology

3. Conceptual model
Figure 16 shows a first sketch of a conceptual model, linking the variables described above. In this conceptual
model I have chose to exclude weight development over summer and winter, since that made the relationships
less clear. The diagram below is a first attempt to sketching up a conceptual model.

Figure 16 A first sketch of a conceptual model

Alphabetic list of variables

Change BM – Mean change in body mass per year, either over winter or summmer

Fall barren - Mean body mass for barren females>1yr in fall

Fall lactating - Mean body mass for lactating females>1yr in fall

Gaupetap – number of reindeer reported as loss to lynx per year

Gestation – proportion of female >1yr pregnant per year when checked with ultrasounder in spring

Integrated – The sum (integrated value) of NDVI through the green season

Jervetap - number of reindeer reported as loss to wolverine per year

Length green – the number of days from spring onset (calculated as days since 1 st Jan) til fall onset onset (calculated as days
since 1st Jan)

Max – the highest value of NDVI recorded during summer

Max temp November – the highest temperature recorded in November each year (from SeNorge)

Mean body mass – mean body mass per year for females >1yr

Mean calf fall - mean body mass for calves in fall

Mean gest – proportion of female >1yr pregnant per year when checked with ultra sounder in spring

Mean fall - mean body mass in fall per year for females >1yr

Mean snow – Average snow depth per year, measured as the snow water equivalent
Mean spring - mean body mass in the spring year for females >1yr

Mean summer gain – weight development over summer for females >1yr

Mean winter loss - weight development over winter for females >1yr

Prev autumn onset – the day of autumn onset last year, calculated as number of days since 1 st Jan

Prev decline – the rate of browning if the tundra the year before

Spring barren - Mean body mass for barren females>1yr in spring

Spring lactating - Mean body mass for lactating females>1yr in spring

Success – proportion of female >1yr with calves in fall

Summer change – weight development over summer for females >1yr

Summer change barren – weight development over summer for barren females >1yr

Summer change lactating – weight development over summer for lactating females >1yr

TapKalv - number of calves reported as lost each year

TapSimle number of females reported as lost each year

TapTot - total number of reindeer reported as lost each year

Tetthet_Nt – density in summer grazing area (nreindeer/km2)

Winter change - weight development over winter for females >1yr

Winter change barren - weight development over winter for barren females >1yr

Winter change lactating - weight development over winter for lactating females >1yr

yr- year